Good morning everyone. I am always welcome to opinions or ideas. I just created the flair for after hours trading. It was necessary because Sparky is nice enough to post ideas as early as 4AM. If there is a flair needed, or idea, I always listen. Even if the stock is a grenade, trust me, I listen! I want to see the thought process and why, and if it makes sense for me, I want to take part in the trade/idea. In 2000 when I lost about 75% it wasn’t about the money I lost. I shut down because I was tired of losing. I spent months, I am not sure how many, but I believe 4-5 months before I traded again. There was no paper trading back then. What I did was study all the signs leading up to the dot com bust. All the signs in the world, I missed. Not just the stock market, the US economy, the world economy, gas, oil and gold. I came up with rules, made promises to myself so I would never lose like that again. When 2008 came around, I was never down more than 25% and the same with 2020 pandemic. It was mainly because I went on the sidelines when I saw the signs again, I made bearish bets that pulled me positive quickly. This is all adapting. If you are trading, you have to constantly adapt, pivot and see the world economy, events. Of course, this is not necessary but if you want to be successful these are keys to success. My blow up in 2000 is the main reason I am risk averse. It doesn’t mean it is the best way to be, it means it coincides with my comfort level for what my goals are, and where I want to be…
Yesterday a couple of people asked me about Bitcoin, and general about Crypto. I am not Charlie Munger… I don’t say its worthless. I believe there will be 5-10 coins, 10 at most that is widely accepted. However, I do not know how to value Bitcoin or Etherium, I understand mining secures the block chain but you don’t have to mine or own Bitcoin or Etherium in order to use information on the block chain.. Because you do not need to have any [own it] or mine it either to have access to the block chain I do not see how to properly value it.. So to me, I will stay away. It does not mean I feel it is worthless, but I certainly don’t see how it has a 15,500 price at the moment. Certainly not! It costs now wit utilities probably near 2,000 to mine a bitcoin and they are running scarce, so maybe 4-5,000? But that’s speculating, and if you know me, I do not like to speculate. Rather than speculate I will buy 1 of 8,200 stocks that trade. People asked me about ISIG and TBLT yesterday. These are speculative plays. They don’t consistently have large sales or make money….TBLT printed a few million shares to get about 7 million dollars…
The good news.. they announced earnings the other day and the growth was amazing! They made near 40 cents a share…. It sounds excellent……
Until you find out that’s 500k!!! So you need to find out the exact numbers.. The company has lost millions in the past. It is a small company that needs money.. However, the growth is amazing, and going on the AMZN platform has been a game changer. If you are stuck in this, I hope it isn’t yolo, but I would keep an eye on it, because if they keep executing like this it is a runner. [A company that can make money within 18 months, has a game plan, a good path] These are companies that you do want in a bull market. Companies that constantly grow at 30%. Remember the SP500 grows sales at 10-20%, generally, anything 30% up is hyper growth and should get a premium to the 18-19x the SP trades at… Especially if they are making money!
Before I get into NVDA I wanted to go over a few things.
Many people think I am crazy, to cocky, obnoxious. I promise you, I don’t even talk about the stock market in real life. PROMISE! I don’t like to! You are reading my thoughts going into the day trading, I want people to understand psyche so they can mirror, learn. If I just wrote trades, you would not gain the same knowledge for trading.
Also, imagine Lebron James, never played in the NBA. People saw him play at the park, in the streets. He knew, I am not saying thinks, he knows he is better than everyone else, and he was never to be the billionaire that he is today… How does he feel..
If Lebron James analyzes a game, analyzes plays, movement from players, and you are reading his mind and his thoughts on basketball.. You would immediately say he is the credentials and nod your head… I am 100% positive anyone reading Lebron James thoughts on each basketball play will say he is confident, cocky, arrogant.. but they don’t.. know why? because they know he is Lebron James! Here, people have the same feeling about me, because they don’t know me! And that is ok, because I am not looking for validation from anyone. I want money, and an opportunity.. SeekingAlpha contacted me yesterday about some ideas, they will email me soon. I want to get my name out there and blow everyone out the water, so I can make the millions if not billions. I am retired as of last year, I didn’t need to work when I started in 2012, It is not about the money, the 500K, it is my birth right to manage money. I was fine being in the shadows and chose to come on Reddit for this opportunity January 26th of 2021. This did not waver. My first video documenting this was April 1st of 2021, when I completed trades for 60 calendar days and asking Jim Cramer to help me get noticed. I tweeted him and sent CNBC the video.. there was no segment for me, unfortunately. Video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-m1QVwJ-Ifg&t=713s
I did not waver in my desire for an opportunity and my desire to help retail while I get it. Now, I know this may never come and I am accepting of that, but at worst I want stocks to move in the direction that I want! Carson Block of Muddy Waters revealed a short on DLO and it fell 50%.. Why does he have the power, and I don’t? He is known, I assure you that I am just as good if not better than him…I am definitely getting noticed on Twitter. I am blocked by 10 or so money managers, analysts, I tweeted yesterday some of them. Even though I am being blocked I can still tweet them, I just cant see their tweets. I like to follow traders, analysts for ideas, because even someone that has never traded before may have an idea.. heck TBLT memed because of APES and we may have something there, check that growth! They must keep executing. If it didn’t meme I and many others would never have heard of it. I like to know when I am wrong and why… If I came on TV and caused massive FOMO and was wrong. Not only would I come on TV and announce my mistake and why, I would put myself on a time out of 30-90 days. I would be ashamed… Instead Tom Lee doubles down and says we are going to have more fierce a rally. A Santa Clause rally, that the fed will stop hiking rates in December… WRONG AND WRONG! Don’t these people causing FOMO have any consequences.. In January everyone on CNBC was bullish on RBLX and BA… It caused my puts to go down! Is that fair? You think it is fair to bears that 95% + of traders can only make money on a bull run and brainwash eachother so that people that are short/have puts should lose? I openly wanted to wage 100K to Tom Lee, put it on Video this past Sunday, because of FOMO he caused Friday [When we had a fierce rally] and I guess his answer was to block me.. Not a response, not listening to why we are headed lower, not a rebuttal, a block. I tweeted Scott Wapner yesterday, that if a guest comes on air and they are right, they get praise, more money, they get others bidding up their picks…. The same should go if they are wrong… I don’t hate Cathie Wood, I do think she is absolutely delusional and shouldn’t manage even a childs piggy bank money.. She trades in 1 direction only, and doesn’t pivot… Of course she knows more than a child, and I do believe she has studied some finance and economics, but she clearly has not studied the stock market and times of crashes/falls to see signs.. I tweeted her look up Janus20 of the 90s. She doesn’t block me, I call Ryan Cohen a fool on twitter, he doesn’t block me, I call Chamath a snake, nope….
I would like them to respond, tell me why I am wrong, if I am wrong, defend, not ignore.. Blocking is a childs move…
So as I said in a video a few weeks ago, do not assume because I am not known that the people you see on TV have more credentials than I do. I am disappointed in Tom Lee and I will tweet him todays briefing. I hope he unblocks me or at least responds… However, it wasn’t right for him to cause FOMO, it wasn’t right for Stephanie Link to pump BA and RBLX while I had puts, and we can see she was dead wrong, and it wasn’t right for Dan Ives to pump TSLA AMZN while I had puts…. We can all have opinions, but when we can influence millions, there should definitely be opinions publicly. In the long run we must be bulls! But every 12-14 years the bears come out and play and it isn’t fair to shut up the Bears, the ones that know when to be a bear and when to be a bull! Not the ones stuck with 1 view point!
Boy NVDA. They scored a 60 on surface. Beating top line and missing bottom. Remember that they lowered guidance twice. In a bear market, it isn’t enough to check surface. We have to check year over year numbers, even go back 2 years.. This is because we don’t want FOMO created to have us caught holding the bag. Many companies sand bag, [Lowering expectations to then beat numbers] and that is fantastic in a bull market, the people less experienced buy into it and cause fomo and rally… however in a bear market, if they don’t cause fomo and rally we have to dig deeper…We will soon know that NVDA was a pandemic jumping company.. and the stock was rewarded for it, much of NVDA business was crypto mining as well. We notice this seeing the amazing jump in sales in 2020 when Bitcoin took off, we entered the pandemic.. NVDA was the darling smashing bottom line by 20-30% and top line sales growth of 40-50%... Fast forward to 2 quarters ago when sales was flat, even negative 10%... earnings were down too… and then yesterday… FACTS!
Sales down 17%, earnings down 50% year over year.. And a scary as heck 60-70x PE ratio! Even worse, how can we be confident in the E in PE we see that is still falling! It still has a cult, many bag holders, but I think the fair value of 75 is to high. I based that 75 on 20-25x with earnings of 3-3.25, I think that is far overshooting… However, as we know a stock price and a company are 2 different things. TSLA is meme #1 and still holds a 182 stock price when fair value is 100… I may buy puts soon, I hope to close some more puts, I will need time because the Cult!
All I traded yesterday was out of my COIN puts. I made 600 with 2,200. I was up a little on BA puts.. I am not far off on SQSP puts, I will probably lose tomorrow on SAVA GME and NTNX puts.. So I will reset maybe next week. I still would have carried up to 20 puts, but I wanted to short on vicious rallies. I am said my DWAD UPST and AFRM puts didn’t fill. Those were 3 I tried hard Tuesday!
5 Trade ideas: Be careful!
AMEH – I didn’t place an order for a call and to my benefit it is even lower! Last report was excellent, I will definitely place a call if it falls hard again
BA – Sorry BA lovers, this company is a disaster with near 100 billion debt and no way to pay it. They will suffer dearly on all these rate hikes. I currently have January 155 strike puts for 5 dollars. I want to trade it and get more puts!
CELH – This is from my high fliers list, it has bounced off of 75, they make energy drinks. The earnings and growth were good, the valuation is insane. I was bidding on these puts maybe a couple of months ago, it was 110!
IRTC / FRPT – I didn’t want to have a lot more than 15 puts, I have 14 now, I tried hard on UPST DWAC and AFRM and those fell, so IRTC FRPT is back on the table
NVDA – Now that the earnings and guidance are out, I am confident that this ship is sinking, the company that is! Whether the stock follows, it has a cult! I am no longer confident in the 75 fair value, that is what I think of NVDA earnings! Now, NVDA is a real company and not going anywhere but I may see earnings at 2.50 and 25 x 2.50 is = near 63.. They may make more than 2.50 but near there.
The contents of this post are for information and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. ... By choosing to make a trade you are responsible for your own actions. Please do some due diligence. These are trades I am making and you can follow along. If you make a winning trade, I do not even expect a bravo or thanks but that’s fine, if you lose on a trade the same difference.. I do not even expect an upvote or reward… The Elite team is aware of the risks and volatility in the market.
Good luck everyone let’s make money. Share trades, ideas here during trading hours. Our main goal here is to make money so I hope we can help eachother. I will be in and out of here as well.
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