CRYPTOCURRENCY PROJECT: ALPACACITY(ALPA) STUDY

ALPACACITY (ALPA) STUDY

20 NOVEMBER 2022

Author: Fikret Furkan Ünlü

[ffuresearch@gmail.com](mailto:ffuresearch@gmail.com)

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LEGAL LIABILITY

What is written here is not investment advice. Not everything in this document is about solicitation of a sales offer or a purchase offer. No legal liability is accepted.This study is for informational purposes only. It can be shared and discussed by communities. But the contents of the file cannot be changed in any way. The party modifying the content assumes all legal responsibilities.

FOREWORD

I would like to thank Tolga Özdemir for translating this work into English for his efforts.

CONTACT

Investors can make proposals for the requested studies at [ffuresearch@gmail.com](mailto:ffuresearch@gmail.com) . Do not contact any address or social media platform other than the specified e-mail address in order to avoid fraud or deception, and do not take into account the incoming messages.

ABSTRACT

In this research, whether Alpacacity (Alpa), a metaverse cryptocurrency, has a high return potential has been examined. Technical and Onchain analysis has been made and suggestions about whether the project is suitable for investment are presented with justifications.

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1 INTRODUCTION

Alpacacity(ALPA) is a virtual world built on the Ethereum blockchain and Binance Smart Chain, where users can manage their on-chain assets by collecting and cultivating Alpacas. Each Alpaca has a variety of genetic traits that not only make it unique but also indicate its ability to produce yields [1].

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Figure 1: An NFT in Alpacacity [2]

The ALPA token is gradually becoming more deflationary as time goes on. As of 11/2020, 90% of the breeding fees will be burned indefinitely, keeping the ALPA circulation supply under control. In addition to the tolls burned, the team at Alpaca City has a deflationary emissions program. The farming reward starts at 37.5 ALPA coins per block, but quickly halves every four weeks (24 weeks total) until the block reward is 0.59 ALPA per block. Because of these measures, the ALPA token is on its way to becoming a deflationary token over time [3].

When it was launched in 2020, the aim of this project was to try to create a more accessible DeFi ecosystem by combining the power of yield farming and NFT. By 2022, the project team announced that they will update Alpacacity as a metaverse game with a unique story. They have announced that they will release AlpacaVoid ($APV) as an auxiliary token in this new project by 2022 Q3-Q4 [4]. The project team mentioned that there will be a land sale, but they did not share any information about the date of the game together with the game. But they shared the story of the game.

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1. GAME STORY

New Alpacacity is a 2D Web3 game. Players do not need to install a client or open an account. They only need a Metamask wallet and a Land NFT to start the game. Land NFT is the key to participating in the game, and Land's rarity has 5 levels: Common, Uncommon, Rare, Epic and Legendary. High rarity means high yield. Also Land has many themes: day, night and 4 seasons. In the game, players can switch roles between farmer and hunter. While playing as a farmer, using Land NFT to complete farming can receive rewards (new service token $APV) from the system where the level of Land NFT will significantly affect farming yields. At the same time, if players have Alpaca NFT, they can also play the role of hunter and start an alpaca war with other farmers. The winner will receive farming rewards from the loser. A player with higher energy alpacas will have more advantage in battle.

Players can search for ERC20 addresses to add and interact with friends, for example starting a friendly alpaca battle. The alpaca battle in hunting mode will not only reflect the advantage of great energy, but also allow players to make full use of their wisdom and strategy, allowing players with low energy alpacas or fewer alpacas to have a chance to win. Alpacacity has two game modes. These are Restorative Farming Mode and Warping Mode

Figure 2: Alpacacity terrain types [2]

a) Restorative Farming Mode : Allows players to rest the land and improve soil health which will contribute to higher planting yields. Since this process takes time, an option to skip the waiting period for restorative farming mode has been added using $ALPA. It is stated that players can complete the mod immediately after paying the corresponding $ALPA.

b) Warping Mode : There are parallel universes in the game and players can choose to move their lands to different parallel universes to achieve higher farming efficiency or avoid challenging players. The transfer process takes even longer, but it is stated that players can complete the warping mode immediately by paying $ALPA tokens.

In the statement made by the project owners, they also mentioned that the ALPAs paid in the game will burn.[5]

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2.1 Parallel universe

The amount of $APV tokens generated from each block varies according to the time flow rate of each parallel universe. Players can transfer their lands to a different universe for higher farming efficiency, or move an alpaca strike team to hunt down players from other universes. Except for the main universe, other universes will automatically open and close. When the $APV burned in the system accumulates up to 500k, a new universe will automatically open (with different time flow rate and terrain carrying capacity). If too much land is moved into a universe at the same time, or if the total soil quality of the cultivated land exceeds the limit that the universe can hold, that universe will close. As a result, players will no longer be able to receive farming rewards in a closed universe.

2.2 Tokenomics and Gaming Technology

Tokenomic :

A. $ALPA Token

ALPA is the governance token of AlpacaVoid with new burning mechanisms:

1. 80% of In-game Land purchase (another 20% to treasury)
2. 100% of fee to skip Land resting
3. 100% of fee to skip warping time

B. $APV Token

1. $APV is the utility token which has an unlimited supply.
2. It will produce a fixed amount of $APV when one block is processed on-chain.

The project team has stated the technology of the game in the table below.

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Module	Module	Info
Game Client	1. Cocos 2. Vue, Web3.js	https://www.cocos.com/
Game Server	Golang	https://go.dev/
Database	MongoDB	https://www.mongodb.com/

Table 1: Alpacacity game technology [1]

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1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND ONCHAIN ANALYSIS

In this section, technical and Onchain analysis of Bitcoin has been applied. The US dollar (DXY) chart has been examined to determine the direction of the market. In this direction, Alpacacity's golden ratio and logarithmic regression analysis were performed.

3.1 Major Factors Affecting Altcoins

Since altcoins are newer in nature and are not considered very reliable, price movements as a result of large market changes are very speculative. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the influencing factors.

Figure 3: US Dollar Index (DXY)

The US dollar index shows us the strength of 6 countries against their currencies. When there is a strong dollar policy, its impact on global markets and the cryptocurrency market can be devastating. So this chart also helps us to analyze the cryptocurrency market. When the USA DXY is analyzed in logarithmic regression, it reached the peak and fell sharply. There is a negative mismatch when the RSI is examined while the index is rising. This shows us that the Logarithmic regression model will work better with RSI.

When we examine the US DXY chart on a weekly basis, the formation that has been formed since 2002 is the bearish flag formation. The dollar index is expected to decline in the coming years. If the markets start to progress in line with this strategy, it can be thought that the crypto market will slowly start to enter the bull season. But due to the negativities experienced, this situation is delayed. (Example FTX liquidity crisis)

Figure 4: Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression

When the logarithmic regression model, which Bitcoin has been in since 2011, is examined, all peak points are seen. Many metrics have been designed over the years (Stock to flow Model, Logarithmic Growth Curves, etc.). But in the 2021 bull, some could not make an accurate prediction of market returns. As a result, many investors lost money. Bitcoin's logarithmic regression model has not tested the bottom point since 2013. However, there is a downward decrease from the middle area during each bear season period.

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Figure 5: Bitcoin Realized Price [6]

When the realized price of Bitcoin price is examined all the time, it does not start the bull season in the crypto money market unless the price proceeds by closing above the realized price.

Figure 6 : Bitcoin Golden Ratio [7]

When we examine the Bitcoin Golden Ratio chart, it comes from 2011 by testing the fibonacci coefficients sequentially, starting from the x21 point and downwards. The x3 point has been tested in the 2021 bull, and the x2 point is expected to be tested in the next bull. At the bottom of the market, it tests the region between 0.382x and 0.236x in each bear season, but never reaches the 0.236 point. Bitcoin does not fall to these ranges yet and its price is holding between 0.500. These zones are between ($7732-$12516) for 14.11.2022.

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3.2 Alpacacity Analysis

In this section, Logarithmic regression and Golden ratio analysis are performed to make a real estimation of the price of Alpaca City.

Figure 7: Alpacacity Regression Analysis

When we look at the daily Logarithmic regression channel of Alpacity, it is seen that it is at the bottom prices and the upper regression channel is around 0.40 cents. Generally, the regression channels are downwards in the early days when the coins that have made a large increase before are examined. Projects that attracted attention over time have reversed this and made great breaks (LTC, CEEK, DOGE, etc.). After the sale of Alpacacity's utility token Apv token, it is predicted that the falling graph from $2 will end and the regression channel will gradually turn into a rising regression model and peak in the bull season.

Figure 8 : Alpacacity Golden Ratio

When we examine the golden ratio strategy, it seems that the price is now at the x0,236 fibonacci coefficient. The average of x21 point of Alpacacity on 15.11.2022 is 2 dollars. It is predicted that when the bull period is entered, it will constantly increase the average and test the places close to the x21 point. Thus, it is estimated that the value at the x21 point will be higher without Alpa testing the $2.

Note: While designing the 365 DMA in the Alpacacity Golden ratio graph, the Average is taken from the release to the end of the first 365 days. The reason for this is that it helps us to determine the peaks in the analysis of some coins.

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3.3 Those not mentioned

Figure 9: Hashribbon Indicator [8]

One of the other important metrics that we should pay attention to market returns in Bitcoin mining is the Bitcoin HashRibbon indicator. However, this analysis should be done with the direct Bitcoin mining electricity consumption account prepared by me. (This document has not been shared because it is a 30-page private work.)

Note: There are some other Onchain analysis methods designed by Glassnode and Coinmetrics to study market returns, but they are not shared so that the study won't get too long.

1. ESTIMATION AND RESULTS

One of the most important parts of the cryptocurrency ecosystem is the ability to create its own finance ecosystem. Along with Bitcoin, many crypto ecosystems were introduced over time. Before the meaning of many promoted projects could be discovered, there was a great decline for a long time after the short big rises and lost interest by the communities. Although the experienced Bear seasons are a market correction, when the system is examined, it shows that this event is in the beginning stage, not the end. Projects have been defined as speculative assets by the media and governments, and unfortunately, investors have been manipulated by many institutions and individuals. It is healthier for a project to be adopted by original investors and masses and to increase its price without being manipulated. However, when many projects are examined, they will actually have no value, but they are thought to be important by being evaluated in terms of price as a result of pumps and speculations of certain people/groups. This will not improve the ecosystem. As a result of the intervention of the states and the Manipulators putting the market in a bear market for many years, the project owners do not do business and the projects are constantly postponed. While this situation covers 99.9% of the crypto money ecosystem, the project in Alpacacity has also been postponed and the promises given have not received enough attention because they have been delayed. Investors confidence has been shaken and the price has reached the lowest levels in history. Therefore, the crypto money market will develop more healthily with Sustainable Metafi projects in Metaverses. It is seen that Alpacacity wants to proceed on this path.

When looking at the partnership structure of Alpacacity, the Galxe(GAL) project draws attention. The owners of the two projects are the same. GAL tokens are also listed on Binance, Coinbase, Huobi, Kucoin. Galxe is a Web 3.0 credential data network. The importance of Decentralized Identity applications will be understood further with metaverse applications. That's why the project owners founded Galxe while the Alpacacity project was going on. In line with this strategy, it is thought that the Alpacacity project will be completed.

Figure 10 : A sharing of Alpacity with secret messages [9]

In the picture published by the Alpacacity team, there are GAL token in 2 places. Project teams occasionally share photos containing such hidden items. In this research, all pictures shared by the team were examined in terms of foresight, but no strategy was determined through secret messages.

When the Etherscan and Bscscan data of Alpacacity are examined, the burning mechanism also works. When the game of this project is released and gains popularity and reaches large masses, there is a possibility of bringing a profit up to 1000x from the bottom price like Axie Infinity, Gala Games, Mana. At the time of writing this research, its price on 15.11.2022 was $0.023. Total supply of the project is 20,998,139 and market cap is 250,909 $ [10]. The price determined by the market for Alpacacity is very low, as there are conditions in the bear market. If this project can be successful at the right place and at the right time when entered in the bull period, there is a possibility that it will reach up to $25 in the first rally with the analysis methods we use. Alpacacity(Alpa) can be purchased from Pancakeswap, Burgerswap, Mxc, Gateio, Sushiswap exchanges, and in another remarkable development, you can log in to pancakeswap via Binance Global application and withdraw to Binance Defi Wallet. Alpacacity NFTs can be purchased from Opensea.

1. IMPORTANT NOTICES

Liquidity crisis is experienced in many stock markets. The ones that come to light are FTX. When the Etherscan data of Alpacacity is examined (14.11.2022), there is 3800 dollars of Alpa in the Mexc stock market and there is an average of 162.000 Alpacacity. However, when Coinmarketcap data is examined, the daily volume on the Mxc exchange increases to $ 48,000 on the same day. Although this data is very inconsistent, the conclusion to be drawn is that the exchanges cannot be trusted very much and the money held in the exchanges never belongs to you in the blockchain system.

Exchanges can buy/sell or lend with your portfolio. When they get into a liquidity crisis, they can borrow from other cryptocurrency exchanges and make it seem like they're okay with their reports. Cryptocurrencies can be attacked by malicious people or hacked by the project owners themselves. In fact, this is one of the biggest problems in locked value (TVL) systems in Defi protocols. Institutional investment firms and individual investors are advised to be more careful and keep their crypto assets in cold wallets.

Twitter, Youtube, Telegram etc. Advertisements made by publishers aim to reach large masses of the crypto universe and it should not be forgotten that investment should be made with personal decisions. Project owners reach large audiences by agreeing with publishers. Since publishers do this for a fee, they act as direct employee logic, or some malicious publishers may advertise to sell the coins they hold after the pump. Investment institutions and individual investors need to be wary of such speculation and have full control over their investments to minimize unexpected losses.

5.1 Notes

One of the biggest problems in the Luna case was that her algorithm was open to manipulation. It was very simple for me from the very beginning to predict that this project will perish. But billion-dollar investment companies and individuals could only avoid bankruptcy if they got the information from the right people. Individual investors should not think and trust that large fund owners always act wisely.

DONATE

This work has been written in the spirit of free research. It is not supported by any institution or person.

BTC ADDRESS

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REFERENCES

[1] https://guide.alpaca.city/

[2]https://alpaca.city/

[3] https://www.bsc.news/post/alpaca-city-on-the-binance-smart-chain

[4] https://medium.com/alpacacity/what-is-alpacavoid-alpaca-city-2-0-e8dd00912543

[5] https://discord.com/channels/761394284917817354/949158116090576977

[6] https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/realized-price/

[7]https://checkonchain.com/btconchain/goldenratiofull_pricing_usd/goldenratiofull_pricing_usd_light.html

[8] https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-hashrate-chart/

[9] https://discord.com/channels/761394284917817354/762569313827160105

[10] https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/alpaca-city