TLDR:
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1.0 THE DCI30 CRYPTO INDEX LEVEL TODAY: circa 11:32am pst today
This post is continually updated (usually), so hit 'screen refresh' and look below item #1.9 (when it appears) for updates, (or not). ;)
DCI30 Index Notes:
The DCI30 Crypto Index was begun 04/07/2022, to serve traders who seek an accurate, reliable, and transparent index of the CryptoMarket, details here:
Yesterday was -65.8%, so we have jumped back further towards the Sharkline after the Sellathon Sunday/Monday One/Two K.O. PunchFest #2.
Neutral TIDEs are turning negative (see chart at item 1.2 below), because underlying support after SBF sell off #2 is weakening.
TAKEAWAY: Longs well behind the SharkLine can work explosively, just as shorts do from the other side....AS LONG AS WE ARE DITHERING ABOUT THE SELACHIMORPHA LINE. (Yes, surfers know the word "shark" in 729 languages, even dead ole'latin haha.)
Remember: the DCI30 is not weighted to large cap, it is 30 coins, all of equal weight. So FTT (now at "zero", second in $lashCrash only to LUNA at -98%), moves the index the same amount that BTC does, (financial democracy that, haha). Some ALTS are moving about huge here, check the coins attached to SBFwoes and you'll see that in FTT (if you can find it), SOL, SRM, et etc.
=============> THIS IS WHERE YOU BUY LONG IN THE SHARKLINE PROCESS:
[TLDR: this report area unchanged from yesterday-until item 1.1]
The Sheep Bleater's Refrain:
The big brains churn and burn with their word salad analysis penned to impress (everyone has to eat), but the simple K.I.S.S. facts are this:
(1) there is a lot of money that needs to go to work
(2) that $$$ is being eaten alive by inflation's chomp chomp (so it is in extreme tension, and not the FOMO type, but the organic fiscal "have to" variety\):*
*Psssst: this is strong, strong like GRAVITY strong.
(3) it is only a matter of time before the band is struck back up (and up). Law of the Lambo Loving Lemmings! The Market "will" adjust to 'the new black', and THAT cash "will" be deployed. WHEN, not "if" is the operative question. This market has been laughing in the face of risk-and that is duly noted here in this view. "More risk is ok" may become "the new market black" of sorts.
**(4) The TIP ETF Chart is the best forward compass for what (RIA v RINA) is coming down the line . . . keep in mind there can be a two week-ish delay from that 'cause' to its 'effect'.....**and at present, that 2 weeks has us UP from here. ;)
(5) Some new rules are getting written here, as "this time IS different". :)
(6) Meanwhile, enjoy the volatility/yoyo action, things are moving at last! This is NOT a healthy market-this is a 'running wounded' market.
And About that Money thing:
" There is a lot of dry powder on the VC/PE side and we have multiple data points of creation through periods of distress as bootstrapping, innovation and human ingenuity come to fore when resources become more scarce. To put numbers to those theories….126 unicorns were formed in GFC and PE and VC combined have have $2.5 trillion of dry powder currently which is 8.5x the amount they had in 2000 (GS) "
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1.1 THE ONE CHART THAT RULES THEM ALL: TIPS ETF
1HR TIDE VIEW: That dashed red line is DDT Day Trend Support developed over a YEAR.
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/wNsPO8kT/
We have been moving sideways under material OHR . . . which is being breached again now.
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[TLDR: this report area is basically unchanged much from yesterday-until item 1.1.1]
CPI print came in "happy" two weeks-ish ago (not), today the FED sounds all dovish, (sorta kinda).
So where's the big reaction here today?
Watch this one closely as it's THE HUGE 800lb canary in everybody's room.....and due to the time prognostication attribute (loose 2 week correlations), we are getting the 'heads up!' for end of November and the beginning of December.
In Crypto: this is a weak market-weakening further. Headwinds are stacking up, (I am posting them as I see them). A Crypto Tsunami hit last week. After shocks are extremely likely.
This is NOT a simple set up for Crypto. It looks as though Binance is playing this in a manner which drives down prices, so they can vacuum up competition and crypto assets at extreme discounts. Think BTC 10k range. ALTs would likely be slaughtered at least 50% in that melee, from where they sit today.
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1.1.1 TIP et al Divergence Watch:
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NfF1wY28/
Rates are falling again, and so TIPs is rising-big time. BTC/S&P500 Divergency is huge here-and is getting worse WITH BITCOIN OVERBOUGHT!
Broader Markets are headed up on the CPI Crack Benny, as Crypto has been heading down on the FTX Fiasco.
DITCH ANALYSIS NOTES:
IF Broader Markets run RINA, THEN crypto "will" run down hard.
IF Broader Markets run RIA, THEN crypto "will" drift down.
IF Broader Markets rally RIA, THEN crypto "will" slide sideways or may grind up a touch, but "will" likely lag the rally considerably, (show weaker correlations on average).
BTC is consolidating here, and I doubt the gap will become closed thru it rising to meet Broader Market as the latter moves up here. ;)
TODAY'S FED SPEAKY HAS CHANGED NOTHING MATERIAL.
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1.2 THREE COIN MERGE/DURGE/PURGE MACRO VIEW:
HEADS Up-NEUTRAL TIDES HAVE ALL (barely) TURNED NEGATIVE 11/21/2022:
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/kihTNtqA/
3 Coins To Represent This Lemmings Come Hither Market: BTC (patriarch-white), ETH (matriarch-teal), ATOM (the kids-blue). All grinding down here-a SKYNET stair step at a time
Note the recently flagged ETH "high", BTC "mid", and ATOM "low" spread has closed in the hot new RINA environ. No heroes in the FTX cross fire here I suppose.
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The music stopped last week, and voila: Carnage abounded and abounding.
Now for some Means Reversion before the next on$laught? We'll see this week as Broader Markets rally-or not. (My guess is not.)
We had a triple tap on new lower support zone, and MANY other market bummers two weaks (sic) ago....not good. These things generally happen before markets fall-and fall is what we got.
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[TLDR: this report area is basically unchanged much from last report-until item 1.3]
If you haven't figured it out yet (hey-took me a while!), the memo issued from the Crypto Overlords was crystal clear: the crypto market is not only incredibly manipulated by a select nefarious few (yup-sorry Virginia, as with all else, nothing new under the sun here-call SBF & CZ if you want to hear it from horsey mouths), it is also being run by what are either seriously stupid (SBFs), or seriously corrupt (SBFs)-or seriously both SKYNETTERStm. I have no idea which, and gee-it just does not matter much outside their skynet locker room.
This was sent in by an irate Ditch Member (who wants to see SBF & his parents jailed), if you want to see unbridled corruption in the making, give it a listen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmmXUtRt6xo
This is a toxic market running without oversight, and if one is to trade it effectively, one needs to check their blue sky rainbow bias boyscout BS at the door. Fail to do that, and, well-good luck to you! (You'll need a lot of that, as hope is not a plan, except at Hope.com.) Hope.com, Michael Saylor, and MSTR (Saylor's 'alms don't mater'), is one of the most shorted stocks out there today. ;)
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1.3 THE CRYPTO MARKET TREND SPOTTER: "BTC Watch"
====> HEADS UP ON THIS ONE GANG-READ CAREFULLY, MUCHO MUCHO HAS CHANGED
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8wgeh9Uj/
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[TLDR: this report area is basically unchanged much from last report-until item 1.9]
===>Summary Case For "UP" from here:
CPI data all happy and snappy now, FED is a Dove! (not).
Prices are such the bargain! (?)
SKYNET may desire it to be so. :) .........(Call CZ and ask what's next, see if he'll take your call).
SBF Calls CZ to say "April's Fool!" in Mandarin
BTC rewriting new annual lows-bottom in then?
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===>Summary Case For "DOWN" FROM HERE:
How much time do you have?
We have refallen well under OHR1 hard. Ouch! New Support has already been taken out and we have reentered the primary summer downtrend-and are clinging to it. Nothing magical here, just pure persistent weakness and a big dose of EvilDoing from EvilDoers. \:)*
Weeks ago I noted:
*"*Trade Note: I am reminded of the last time SKYNET ran BTC up to 25k zone, just to reverse it into 18.1k zone fast, so careful there with the giddy longs as well as aggressive shorts. Things have been very quiet, and now all of a sudden . . . SKYNET is on the move."
And new 15k 2022 lows for BTC are in. Prophetic and me so smarty? NO. (I wish!) Just reading the patterns peeps.....the data is there if one is willing to process it, instead of continually huffing HODL HOPIUM BLUESKY BS.
What's next? Dunno-we are in BlackSwanLand now, and will be for quite some time I think. What I like here is we have beat June lows in BTC, but ETH is still well up in the air. And hold that thought. ATOM? Ditto x3. Matic? You get the idea. Make Hay While That Short Sun Shines is my parting comment. ;)
I am now considering a sea change move: swing this crapper short HARD into 2023 and head to Costa Rica and surf until then. Pura Vida! Wake me when it gets real! Not there yet, but that is my thinking here, as what's next? USDT going boom? (seriously)
Give the first 11 minutes of this a listen if you want to understand better where I am coming from:
\***
If you are an active or learning trader, I strongly recommend you read recent posts and their updates, as day to day I may not repeat important post items, only slather on new data as I find it. :)
There is a free treasure trove of information here, stuff you will find nowhere else, (original content):
https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/qrr32h/welcome_all_yee_broad_sword_scalpers/
Good Luck & Viva La Share-IF YOU SEE IT IN THE DATA, PLEASE CALL IT OUT, (no narratives por favor)!
\*\**
1.9 UPDATES FOLLOW, (trades I make are in comments section-posted when time permits):
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7.0 BROADER MARKETS:
USA TODAY: Up, per projections.
7.1 Checking In With The Tea Leaves (not the kardashians):
12:03pm pst: THIS is a market with NOTHING in its way to UP.
S&P 4000 level hit yesterday as called, up we go gang-NOTHING IN THE WAY HERE.
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9.0 CORRELATIONS:
12:06 pm pst: Inconsistent to Divergent
Correlations Earlier (divergent city!)
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/jYBlpfbm/
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12.0 MISCELLANEOUS EVENT & DATA POST SECTION (ie: everything else goes here Virginia):
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ETH Today on Ascendex-*fizzle*
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