On Sunday, February 12, Bitcoin is trading at $21.8 thousand, over the past seven days, its price has fallen by 6.5%. Specialists of the ASTL investment project analyzed the situation on the market and assessed the prospects for the movement of the bitcoin rate for the next seven days.
"It's been a bad week." In January, bitcoin rose in price against the dollar by 39.79%, while in the first ten days of February, sellers seized the baton, increasing their activity. Since the beginning of the month, Bitcoin has “lost” by 6.72%. The week from February 6 to February 12 turned out to be unsuccessful for bitcoin. He suffered the maximum losses on Thursday. At the time of writing the review, weekly losses amounted to 5.39%.
Increased volatility in the crypto market was observed on Tuesday (February 7) and Thursday (February 9). In the first half of the week, demand for risky assets increased during a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Economic Club of Washington. Powell noted that 2023 will be a year of significant decline in inflation, before falling to 2% in 2024. Investors rejoiced at the easing of monetary policy with lower consumer prices. The fall of the dollar and the rise of the S&P500 increased the demand for cryptocurrency. Bitcoin rose to $23,240.
On Thursday, the bitcoin rate fell by 5.08% to $21,796. Closing long positions in the BTC/USDt pair caused the S&P500 index to fall and the dollar index to recover. The main reason for risk aversion was a jump in US Treasury yields in response to weak demand for 30-year bonds during their placement by the US Treasury. After passing the $22,300-$22,500 zone, the price decline accelerated to $21,688. On Friday (February 10), sellers reached the $21,451 level in a complex intraday formation - four declining bases with bullish divergence on the hourly timeframe. The pattern is a harbinger of a price rebound to $22,000.
Exchange volumes were noticeably lower on Saturday and are unlikely to rise, as the dollar index and S&P500 closed in positive territory on Friday. If the S&P500 fell by 1% at the end of the day, then the sellers would be more active from Saturday.
According to technical and cyclical analysis, the probability of a recovery above $22,000 remains at 60%. According to ASTL investment project experts, buyers are hanging by a thread. Sellers should find a time window with low liquidity in the order book and may well lower the price to $20,500 before Monday.
The key event of the next week will be the US inflation report for January. The data will be released at 16:30 Moscow time. on Tuesday (February 14). Inflation is expected to slow to 6.2% from 6.5% in December. Core inflation in the US - excluding food and energy prices - slowed to 5.5% on an annualized basis from 5.7% a month earlier. If the data does not disappoint investors, we will see an upward reversal of all risky assets.
With important news and the dependence of bitcoin on the US stock market, it is difficult to predict the rate of bitcoin, but we can say for sure that it will move behind the S&P500. There is a negative correlation between bitcoin and the dollar. The more the dollar index falls on the growing S&P500, the faster the recovery of bitcoin will be.
Investors are advised to take some time to think before making any investment. One of the legitimate forms of investment is, for example, the ASTL investment project, which allows investors the opportunity to directly invest fiat and cryptocurrency assets in a stable passive income that obviously exceeds inflationary expectations and is not subject to any sanctions, blocking and confiscation. The ASTL project is a simple and elegant solution for potential investors - an investment in the development of the real sector of a diversified portfolio of cryptocurrencies, with a fairly high ROI (up to 12% annually) with payments in stablecoin (USDT). Details can be found at https://astl.io.
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