Why the price of NEO goes higher from here

In November 2022, I made a prediction that the current downcycle in the price of NEO would end at the end of the year. The price has since more than doubled during that time (~$6 to $~13).

From here, the price of NEO should continue to rise. If you'd like to see how much further it may rise, feel free to check out this dashboard we created. How it works is like this:

1) We identified a 2-year seasonal cycle in the price of NEO that has taken place since 2017. Seasonality means that the price rises and/or falls during certain times of a period, similar to how retail sales tend to rise during the Christmas holidays but fall therefater. While NEO does in fact have an annual cycle, the 2-year cycle is even stronger.

2) Knowing seasonality without understanding the overall trend can be death to your forecast.

In this case, we identified a few baskets of assets that are highly correlated to the price of NEO (i.e. ~80%). In one such basket, which is composed of crude oil, Bitcoin, and MCHI, we can identify that the overall trend is rising because of the persistent and continued rise in the prices of oil and Bitcoin and the stability in the price of MCHI.

Combining these two factors gives us a strong indication where the price of NEO should go by the end of the month. While this model is not perfect, it is likely to be correct when both the seasonal cycle holds true and aligns with the overall trend.

This model could always be improved, so we welcome any constructive feedback, criticism, etc. Thanks for reading.

Note: This post is not meant to be investment advice, nor is it meant to spur speculation in the price of NEO. As a part-time developer on the NEO ecosystem, my interest lies more in building apps that will combine practical, real-world usage with the NEO blockchain. In particular, I am interested to see how data science can be used to make forecasts in the price of almost anything, including the price NEO. Exogeneous events, such as real-world adoption of the NEO blockchain, are of secondary consideration in this model.

2nd Note: As the overall algorithm is still being tweaked, the price forecasted by the dashboard may likely overstate (or understate) what actually transpires.