Bitcoin traded roughly between $76.7k and $82.3k this week as last week’s bearish scenario played out almost perfectly from a level perspective. However, instead of a clean sell-off, the structure remained highly overlapping without all too significant downside expansion.
That makes for the following environment right now:
📉 Price corrected significantly, but overall slowly from local highs
😨 More traders are suddenly calling for a major top
⚠️ “70k (or even 40k) next” narratives are rapidly spreading again
Meanwhile, traditional markets continue showing strength. Indices such as the US100 are still pushing toward new highs, although the chart structure is approaching important higher time frame target regions where caution becomes increasingly important.
Last week, altcoins slightly underperformed. However, the recent BTC Dominance bounce appears to be of corrective nature so far, leaving room for another potential altcoin expansion phase if Bitcoin can stabilize and pick up momentum again.
The market remains far away from euphoric conditions, but could we have formed a meaningful top anyway?
Bullish Scenario
From a structural perspective, Bitcoin still looks constructive with multiple bullish scenarios in play. The current correction shows heavy overlap. That often aligns more with a larger corrective phase rather than the beginning of a major impulsive collapse.
As long as BTC manages to hold the broader support region around $77k this specific scenario for another leg higher remains valid.
The bullish case would likely involve:
- local support holding after potentially clearing some more long liquidations below the current price
- a first 5-wave impulse to the upside, ideally breaking through key Resistance levels
Higher time frame liquidation heatmaps (e.g. 2-week tf) still show substantial liquidity sitting above current price, particularly around the low-$80k region. That means short squeezes remain very possible if bears fail to create stronger downside momentum soon.
Notably, sentiment continues cooling off (e.g. Fear&Greed Index on CMC dropped to ~41 points) while structure doesn´t confirm a meaningful top yet. A dynamic that can easily createe frustration for both sides.
Bearish Scenario
Despite the so far corrective structure, traders should remain careful, as macro conditions are becoming increasingly fragile:
- US10Y yields pushed back into a historically critical region near yearly highs
- Tensions around the middle east conflict once more are rising
- NVIDIA earnings next week could significantly impact broader market sentiment and volatility
This week´s bearish scenario would likely involve:
- Failed attempts of meaningful retracements to the upside, at least until
- the recent swing Low around $75k has been lost
From a technical perspective, losing the current support structure would significantly weaken the bullish interpretation and increase the probability that Bitcoin formed a more meaningful top already. However, once the mentioned Support zone breaks, bounces might make for additional high probability short setups.
The so far rather corrective structure does not rule out further downside by any means, but some traders might already be positioning too aggressively for a bearish continuation while structure lacks confirmation.
Bitunix Trader Takeaway
One of the biggest mistakes market participants make is trading emotions instead of developing, following and improving a structured process.
Especially during volatile phases, many market participants become reactive:
- panic after dumps, euphoric near local highs
- overly confident after some successful trades
- biased by social media narratives
That’s exactly why having a simple, but highly effective strategy playbook matters.
It can e.g. define:
- What you trade (assets / setups)
- When you trade (sessions, trend/consolidation, news environment)
- How you trade (HTF bias, LTF triggers, risk management, invalidation)
One can´t possibly predict every move correctly. Instead, the goal is staying consistent with risk management and capitalize on high-quality opportunities.
Panthi´s Watchlist
Macro & Events:
- Fed Meeting Minutes (Wednesday)
- NVIDIA Earnings Report (Wednesday)
Addtional factors:
- US10Y yields returned into a historically critical region near yearly highs -> potential pressure on risk assets if yields continue expanding
- Geopolitical headline risk (US-Iran) -> volatility catalyst for global markets
- BTC Dominance remains near a key resistance region around 61% -> corrective behavior here could support another altcoin expansion phase
For now, the market continues balancing between:
📈 4h timeframe bullish structure
⚠️ growing macro risk
📉 aggressive bearish expectations
That usually creates volatility. And with that comes opportunity. One more reason to...
Stay prepared, not biased.
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