Markets

Good evening, everyone. We’ve been stuck in the $60,000 range for Bitcoin since February, yet some hotheads are urging people to buy at current levels. Let me state right off the bat that I am a Bitcoin maximalist and a bear.

Let’s take things in order. We saw Bitcoin hit $60,000 out of the blue, even before the events in Iran. At the time, the stock market was rising daily, and gold was performing well. In other words, against the backdrop of a bull stock market, the price of Bitcoin fell by 50 percent (literally within a couple of months of its October peak at $126,000). Gold dropped 30%. Yet the stock market continues to break all records. We recently hit a new local low for Bitcoin at $57,000, and this happened against the backdrop of a rising stock market.

Some argue that we have been in an accumulation phase since February, but in my opinion, this is distribution. I expect the Bitcoin bottom to be in the $31,000–$35,000 range. This gives you an idea of just how crazy it is to buy Bitcoin at $65,000 today.

A new market model and cycle structure has emerged based on the 2022–2023 period specifically, when the bottom was established in October 2022 and the entire following year was characterized by growth accompanied by accumulation. As for the altseason, it occurred precisely when Bitcoin hit its bottom and dominance was low. Recall the rise of APT from $3 to $20, Solana’s surge from $8 to $20, and so on.

I expect the same pattern to repeat this time: we will see bottoms for Bitcoin, altcoins, and stocks in the autumn. By the spring of 2027, Bitcoin will rise to $60,000 before crashing to $45,000, followed by a period of accumulation lasting until the autumn of 2027, at which point a new bull market will begin.

A stock market crash will occur, wiping out trillions of dollars in market capitalization. We will fall to March 2025 levels (driven by Trump’s tariffs, which sent the S&P 500 plunging to 4,900 points). I expect gold to reach $3,300 per ounce it might go lower, but there is no point in guessing.

Hang in there and be patient. During an apocalypse, everyone rushes to the US dollar, not to gold or crypto. The dollar is the only safe haven.