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Here is Your Complete Market Rundown (08/20/2026):
Analyst Ratings
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Morgan Stanley Upgrades Merck, Cuts Liberty LiLAC, and Flags 38-Gigawatt AI Power Gap in Busy Research Day
Morgan Stanley issued a flurry of analyst calls on August 20. Most notably, the firm upgraded Merck from Equal-Weight to Overweight with a price target of $179, arguing that a strong cancer drug pipeline, bolstered by a blockbuster late-stage trial showing the combination of Moderna’s intismeran autogene and Merck’s Keytruda effective in high-risk melanoma patients, more than offsets the looming patent expiration of Keytruda.
On the same day, RBC Capital Markets moved in the opposite direction, downgrading Merck to Sector Perform with a $150 target. Morgan Stanley separately downgraded Liberty LiLAC from Equal-Weight to Underweight with a $7 price target on valuation concerns, while resuming coverage of Keurig Dr Pepper at Overweight.
The firm’s analysts also published a note warning that AI data centers face a 38-gigawatt power gap, identifying industrial stocks such as GE Vernova as beneficiaries of surging power generation demand. Morgan Stanley’s head of global real assets, Lauren Hochfelder, echoed that theme on CNBC, calling industrial real estate a side-door way into AI.
Separately, Morgan Stanley set a bullish 12-month price target on SpaceX even as the stock fell roughly 6% on August 20 after 319 million shares held by early employees and investors were unlocked.
The firm also published a constructive gold price outlook for 2027, flagged modest downside risks to the US aluminum premium, said Apple App Store net revenues dipped year-over-year based on monthly data, noted that BILL’s fiscal 2027 outlook points to slower core growth despite a fourth-quarter profit gain, and assessed the broader earnings season positively, concluding that profits grew, margins held, and gains were broad-based rather than concentrated among a handful of large names.
In India, shares of Power Finance Corporation and REC fell as much as 3% following a Morgan Stanley downgrade of both stocks.
Company News
Walmart Inc. (WMT)
Performance Overview
1D Change: -9.15%
5D Change: -10.22%
News Volume: 320
Unusual Volume Factor: 15x
Walmart Stock Drops Nearly 10% After Weakest US Comparable Sales Growth in Six Years
Walmart reported fiscal second-quarter results on August 20 that beat headline estimates but sent shares plunging as much as 10%, their worst single-day decline since May 2022, after the company posted its slowest US comparable-store sales growth in over six years. US comparable sales excluding fuel rose just 2.6% in the quarter ended July 31, well short of the 3.7% Wall Street had expected, with falling pharmacy and prescription drug prices creating roughly a 80-to-125-basis-point drag on the figure.
Revenue came in at $187.9 billion, topping the $186.7 billion estimate and up 5.9% year over year, while adjusted EPS of $0.81 beat the $0.74 consensus by nearly 11%. Operating income surged 28.8%, partly boosted by a $2.9 billion tariff refund, though CFO John David Rainey told CNBC that Walmart has received less than $100 million of that total so far and plans to channel refunds into lower prices for customers, with price adjustments expected to appear in the third quarter. CEO Doug McMillon said consumers are making trade-offs under pressure from higher fuel costs, identifying $4-per-gallon gasoline as a threshold where shoppers pull back meaningfully, though he noted continued growth from higher-income households and described inflation throughout the year as ‘pretty low.’
Bright spots included 23% global e-commerce growth, 38% growth in the global advertising business, 17% growth in membership fee revenue, and an 8.8% revenue increase at Sam’s Club. For the third quarter, Walmart guided adjusted EPS to $0.62 to $0.64, below the $0.68 consensus, with net sales growth of 3% to 3.75% in constant currency. The company raised its full-year fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS outlook to $2.80 to $2.87 from a prior range of $2.75 to $2.85, and lifted its net sales growth target to 4% to 5% in constant currency. Walmart shares fell to a 2026 low near $103 to $105 during trading, dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average down roughly 637 points, or 1.2%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.7% and the Nasdaq fell 1%.
Rival retailers including Target and Costco also traded lower on the news. Many analysts called the comp sales shortfall one of the biggest misses in years and a potential signal of a slowing US consumer, though a number urged investors to buy the dip given the company’s raised full-year guidance and structural momentum in e-commerce, advertising, and membership businesses.
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)
Performance Overview
1D Change: -24.82%
5D Change: 108.46%
News Volume: 39
Unusual Volume Factor: 20x
Moderna Sheds Up to 25% in Profit-Taking Selloff After Historic 177% Cancer Vaccine Surge
Moderna shares fell as much as 25% on Thursday, erasing roughly $18 billion in market value after the stock’s record single-day gain of 176.9% on Wednesday. The rally had been driven by positive Phase 3 results from the INTerpath-001 trial of intismeran autogene, an mRNA-based personalized cancer vaccine co-developed with Merck, which met its primary endpoints in patients with completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma when combined with Merck’s Keytruda. By midday Thursday, shares were trading near $142.70, down about 18% to 20%, before extending losses to approximately 24% in afternoon trade, according to multiple market trackers. Forbes reported Moderna’s market capitalization fell from $69.6 billion at Wednesday’s close to $51.5 billion.
Despite the pullback, Moderna shares remain up roughly 351% year-to-date. The stock led all pre-market volume with approximately 14.2 million shares changing hands in early trade. Analysts who raised price targets in response to the trial data kept several of those targets below Wednesday’s closing price, raising questions about how much of the clinical breakthrough had already been priced in. BioNTech fell around 4% and Merck slipped modestly in sympathy, though a Morgan Stanley analyst maintained that Merck remains a buy. Barron’s noted the Wednesday surge had also triggered a short squeeze that spilled into semiconductor names. A separate disclosure revealed that former President Trump had purchased up to $50,000 of Moderna shares on March 2 and again on March 17, with only a partial sale in May, leaving him holding a position that was up more than 150% as of Wednesday.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)
Performance Overview
1D Change: -22.98%
5D Change: -23.43%
News Volume: 37
Unusual Volume Factor: 18x
Advance Auto Parts Plunges Over 20% After Revenue Miss and DIY Sales Slump Overshadow Earnings Beat
Advance Auto Parts reported second-quarter 2026 results before the opening bell on August 20 that sent shares tumbling roughly 21% to around $44.33, with the selloff also dragging AutoZone down about 4% and O’Reilly Automotive lower. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.03, beating the Wall Street consensus of $0.81 by 27% and rising 49% year over year from $0.69.
Revenue, however, came in at $2.000 billion, missing analyst projections of $2.039 billion by roughly $40 million and slipping 0.5% from $2.010 billion in the year-ago period. Comparable store sales declined, with growth in the professional customer segment more than offset by a larger-than-expected drop in do-it-yourself sales, as cash-strapped consumers pulled back on discretionary auto maintenance spending.
On the outlook, Advance raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $2.60 to $3.30, up from a prior range of $2.40 to $3.10, while reaffirming its full-year net sales range of $8.485 billion to $8.575 billion along with its operating-margin and free-cash-flow targets. Investors focused on the revenue shortfall and the weakness in the higher-margin DIY business rather than the profit beat, with the stock’s steep drop reflecting concern that softening consumer spending poses a sustained headwind to the aftermarket auto parts sector.
Deere & Company (DE)
Performance Overview
1D Change: 6.93%
5D Change: 1.39%
Deere Shares Jump 7% After Q3 Earnings Beat and Raised Full-Year Guidance
Deere and Company posted fiscal third-quarter net income of $1.379 billion, or $5.10 per diluted share, up from $4.75 a year earlier and well above the analyst consensus of roughly $4.71, marking the company’s first year-over-year profit gain in approximately three years. Total net sales and revenues rose 5% to $12.61 billion, surpassing estimates near $10.81 billion. The construction and forestry segment was the primary engine: net sales climbed 18% to $3.62 billion and operating profit surged 84% to $436 million, with the operating margin expanding to 12.1% from 7.7%, fueled in part by demand tied to AI-related infrastructure build-out.
Small Agriculture and Turf also contributed, with sales up 12% to $3.38 billion and operating profit rising 28% to $622 million, improving the segment margin to 18.4% from 16.0%. Production and Precision Agriculture, representing the large-farm-equipment market, remained a soft spot, with revenues declining 6% to $4.00 billion. Deere recorded $110 million in tariff recoveries in the quarter, spread across production costs in multiple segments. Total operating profit rose 18.4% to $1.856 billion.
The company raised the low end of its full-year FY2026 net income guidance to $4.75 billion from $4.5 billion, keeping the ceiling at $5.0 billion. CEO John C. May described 2026 as the structural trough of the agricultural equipment cycle, citing stabilizing early-order programs, clearing used-equipment inventories, and broadening technology adoption as indicators of a more pronounced recovery in 2027. Shares gained 7.1% to $621.93, on track for their best single-session performance since February, and ranked among the top S&P 500 gainers on the day.
Crypto Events
Bitcoin Surges Past $72,000 as Record $2.7 Billion Short Squeeze Ignites Crypto Rally
Bitcoin climbed above $72,000 on August 20, extending a roughly 15% gain since Monday and reaching its highest level since early June. The move was fueled in part by a record $2.7 billion short squeeze across crypto markets, with more than $1 billion in Bitcoin short positions liquidated in approximately one hour, according to Coinglass data. The liquidation cascade forced bearish traders to cover positions rapidly, accelerating the price surge. Crypto-linked equities surged in tandem: Strategy, which holds 840,447 BTC on its balance sheet, jumped around 12% to 13%, while Coinbase gained roughly 9% to 11%. Circle added approximately 9.4% and BitMine climbed nearly 10%. Strategy and Coinbase are also among the most heavily shorted large-cap stocks on Wall Street, meaning equity short sellers were simultaneously being squeezed alongside derivatives traders. The rally reclaimed several key technical and on-chain levels for Bitcoin, and the broader crypto market moved higher alongside it.
Fixed Income And Interest Rates Events
Bessent Says Treasury Bond Buybacks Could Exceed $4 Billion Per Issue as US Moves to Cap Long-Term Yields
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that the department's buyback operations for longer-dated Treasury securities could exceed $4 billion per issue, going beyond an already-announced doubling of scheduled purchases. The Treasury had announced Wednesday that it would at least double its scheduled $2 billion in buybacks of longer-dated government debt, a move that sent yields sharply lower. Bessent told CNBC that Treasury intends to "make a market" in longer-dated securities where yields have been surging, adding that the department would assess market conditions and take further action if needed, describing Treasury as having "a big tool kit." He also signaled a push for fiscal consolidation aimed at curbing the deficit and reducing borrowing costs, and suggested that companies issuing debt should favor 5-year maturities over longer-term instruments. The moves are designed to keep the bond market "in equilibrium," Bessent said. The buyback announcement initially steadied markets, spurring rallies in stocks, silver, and crypto, but gains were subsequently wiped out by geopolitical pressure tied to a Trump threat regarding Iran. Questions are also mounting about coordination between Bessent and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, with economists noting that aggressive buybacks of long-dated debt could complicate the Fed's price-stability mandate.
St. Louis Fed's Musalem Would Have Backed July Rate Hike but Keeps September Options Open as Trump Pressures Fed and Treasury Acts on Bonds
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said on August 20 that he would have favored raising interest rates at the Fed's July meeting, though he was not a voting member at the time. Musalem declined to signal a clear preference for the September FOMC meeting, saying he has no strong opinion on the outcome and will not make assumptions about the next decision. He also stressed that the Fed aims to keep monetary policy separate from fiscal policy, and noted that forward guidance is most useful when rates are near zero. His remarks came as the US national debt crossed $40 trillion and President Trump renewed public pressure on the Fed to cut rates. Separately, the Treasury Department announced it would double its purchases of longer-dated bonds beginning September 9 through November 4, a move aimed at providing liquidity support and containing borrowing costs in long-dated Treasuries. The announcement pushed the 30-year yield down from about 5.26 percent to as low as 5.18 percent and the 10-year yield from 4.68 percent to as low as 4.63 percent. The July FOMC meeting ended with rates held steady but saw three regional presidents dissent in favor of a hike, the most dissents since September 2016, complicating the outlook for September as incoming data continues to shift the picture.
Macro Events
GBP/USD Hits Three-Month High After UK Inflation Jumps to 2.9% in July
Sterling climbed to a three-month high against the dollar on Thursday after UK consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, up from a 15-month low of 2.6% in June, driven largely by a 13% hike in Ofgem's energy price cap. The reading matched forecasts and marked the highest inflation rate since March, while core inflation held steady at 2.6%. The data reinforced expectations that the Bank of England will need to keep policy restrictive for longer, lending support to the pound. The dollar was simultaneously under broad pressure as long-term US Treasury yields fell, a move amplified by the Treasury Department's decision to expand buyback operations for securities with maturities of 10 to 30 years to support market liquidity. EUR/USD held just below 1.1700, near its strongest August levels, as fading Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations weighed on the greenback. The People's Bank of China offered a firmer signal for the yuan, setting its USD/CNY daily reference rate at 6.7808, stronger than the prior session's fix of 6.7854. The outlook for GBP/USD and other dollar pairs now hinges on upcoming economic data from both sides of the Atlantic.
Corporate Actions Events
Anthropic Plans IPO That Could Match or Surpass SpaceX's Record $86.2 Billion Offering
Anthropic is preparing to file for an IPO as soon as the end of August 2026, with a public listing targeted by the end of October, according to Bloomberg. The AI company expects the offering to match or exceed SpaceX's record $86.2 billion IPO, which would make it the largest public offering in history. Anthropic's annualized revenue for 2026 is on track to top $65 billion, up from a $47 billion pace reported in May, underscoring the scale the company would bring to markets. A successful listing at or above SpaceX's benchmark would cement Anthropic as one of the most valuable companies ever to go public, and prediction markets have moved to reflect its growing odds of claiming that record from SpaceX.
Technology Events
Broadcom Seeks Over $60 Billion in Debt to Finance AI Chip Deal Benefiting Anthropic and Others
Broadcom is in talks with a group of lenders to raise more than $60 billion in debt tied to its latest AI chip financing deal, which is set to benefit Anthropic and other companies. The structure under discussion could include a roughly $30 billion junior debt tranche, and Broadcom is also exploring guaranteeing part of the senior-secured tranche, according to people familiar with the matter. The deal is part of a broader financing model in which outside investors purchase AI computing racks built on Broadcom's custom chips, AI companies lease that infrastructure, and Broadcom backstops a significant portion of the financing. The terms are still being finalized. The development comes as Broadcom has already faced investor scrutiny over the scale of its AI financing commitments, with the stock falling sharply in recent sessions on concerns about cumulative exposure that some analysts have pegged at up to $370 billion across its pipeline of deals.
Nvidia Plans New China-Specific AI Chip for Year-End Shipment
Nvidia is developing a new AI chip tailored specifically for Chinese customers and aims to begin shipments by the end of 2026, according to a report from The Information published August 20. The chip is described as specialized, designed to navigate the ongoing U.S. export control restrictions that have severely limited Nvidia's ability to sell its most advanced processors in China. The announcement comes days after the Financial Times reported that small batches of Nvidia's H200 chips, including roughly 10,000 units each to ByteDance and Tencent, had been allowed to enter mainland China. Nvidia's China market share has been under sustained pressure from export controls and Beijing's push for domestic chip self-sufficiency, and CEO Jensen Huang has previously described China as a potential 50 billion dollar annual opportunity for the company.
Healthcare Events
Moderna Erases $18 Billion in Market Value the Day After Its Historic 177% Cancer Vaccine Surge
Moderna shares fell as much as 25% on Thursday, wiping out roughly $18 billion in market value, one day after the stock posted a 177% gain, its best single session ever, on breakthrough Phase 3 data for its personalized mRNA cancer vaccine intismeran. The drug, developed in partnership with Merck, was tested in combination with Merck's blockbuster Keytruda in more than 1,100 patients with high-risk melanoma that had been surgically removed. The combination demonstrated a clinically meaningful improvement in keeping patients cancer-free compared with Keytruda alone, with trial principal investigator Georgina Long calling it a landmark moment for adjuvant melanoma treatment. Moderna closed Wednesday at $174.38, up from roughly $63 before the announcement, but by midday Thursday had retreated to around $130 to $142 as investors locked in gains. BioNTech fell roughly 4% in sympathy. Merck, which had climbed on the news, received a stock downgrade on Thursday. JPMorgan analyst Jessica Fye cautioned that while intismeran's launch in adjuvant melanoma is key to Moderna returning to profitability, success in that indication was already priced into her model at an 85% probability of success, making the original run-up appear overdone. A separate Benzinga analyst note framed intismeran's long-term oncology potential as comparable to Keytruda's franchise-defining role for Merck. Moderna's trading volume on Wednesday reached 185 million shares, approximately 1,819% above its three-month average.
Earnings Events
Deere Raises Full-Year Net Income Forecast After AI Construction Boom Drives First Quarterly Profit Gain in Three Years
Deere and Company lifted the low end of its fiscal 2026 net income guidance to $4.75 billion from $4.5 billion, keeping the top end at $5 billion, after reporting third-quarter results that beat estimates and marked the company's first year-over-year profit increase in roughly three years. Net income for the quarter ended August 2 came in at $1.379 billion, or $5.10 per diluted share, up from $4.75 per share a year earlier. Total net sales and revenues rose 5% to $12.61 billion. The construction and forestry segment was the primary driver: net sales climbed 18% to $3.62 billion and operating profit surged 84% to $436 million, with the operating margin expanding to 12.1% from 7.7%, fueled by booming demand tied to AI-related infrastructure construction. Large-farm-equipment markets remained soft, with Deere's full-year industry outlook calling for U.S. and Canadian large agriculture volumes to fall 15% to 20%, though the company affirmed its view that 2026 represents the bottom of the current agricultural downcycle. CEO John C. May cited improving used-equipment inventories, strong early order program trends, and growing customer adoption of advanced technologies as reasons for confidence in Deere's positioning. Shares jumped on the news.
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