GME Tokenized Stock and NFT GameStop Marketplace.

GME Tokenized Stock

It’s happening and started to form all the pieces of the puzzle together, in a Data Science there are Data Analytics, where you analyze all the information that can be used to make an intelligent business decision. Then a Data Prescriptive, after the analysis you formulate a plan to implement based on the data structure. And my favorite is the Data Prediction, basically you can predict the outcome based on predictive analysis on a series of data.

If I do the same concept on predictive analysis but instead of a using series of data, let’s use a series of events and facts, for sure we will be able to predict the event that is going to happen. So, what are the facts and the series events related to GameStop (GS).

• RC Tweet about the PG-13, Chopsticks in nose, my comment here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/oop0ny/what_rcs_chop_sticks_tweet_is_about/h60agni/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

• GameStop SEC filing last June 9, 2021 https://investor.gamestop.com/node/18346/html#rom50019_13

Here is the content about the UNITS in Page 13.

“We may issue units from time to time in such amounts and in as many distinct series as we determine. We will issue each series of units under a unit agreement to be entered into between us and a unit agent to be designated in the applicable prospectus supplement. When we refer to a series of units, we mean all units issued as part of the same series under the applicable unit agreement.

We may issue units consisting of any combination of two or more securities described in this prospectus. Each unit will be issued so that the holder of the unit is also the holder of each security included in the unit. Thus, the holder of a unit will have the rights and obligations of a holder of each included security. These units may be issuable as, and for a specified period may be transferable as, a single security only, rather than as the separate constituent securities comprising such units.

The applicable prospectus supplement will describe the terms of the units offered pursuant to it, including one or more of the following:

• the title of any series of units;
• the designation and terms of the units and of the securities comprising the units;
• the aggregate number of, and the price at which we will issue, the units and any provisions for the issuance, payment, settlement, transfer, or exchange of the units or of the securities comprising the units;
• the date, if any, on and after which the constituent securities comprising the units will be separately transferable;
• whether the units will be issued in fully registered or global form;
• a description of the terms of any unit agreement to be entered into between us and a bank or trust company, as unit agent, governing the units;
• a discussion of material U.S. federal income tax considerations;
• whether the units will be listed on any securities exchange; and
• any other material terms of the units and their constituent securities.

------------- End of Page 13 SEC Filing --------------------

It’s now starting….

The GME tokenized stock is now trading in FTX exchange in Germany, so what are tokenized stocks? This is a short video, and this Dude did a great job explaining it, remember the Chopsticks tweet when watching this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHFb-OQr6rU

Tokenized are stocks that trade on traditional regulated exchanges. FTX lists tokens on select equities. These spot tokens are backed by shares of stock custodied by CM-Equity. They can be redeemed with CM-Equity for the underlying shares if desired.

GME has been listed on several crypto exchanges, unlike other main cryptocurrencies, it cannot be directly purchased with fiats money. However, you can still easily buy this coin by first buying Bitcoin from any fiat-to-crypto exchanges and then transfer to the exchange that offers to trade this coin.

FTX has listed GameStop (GME)

https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/articles/360055676272-FTX-has-listed-GameStop-GME-

​

So, the next question is, ok you can trade using a GME tokenized stock (GME Token or the “UNIT”) but that’s only in Germany and not in the US, what platform and what technology fast enough, secure enough and highly scalable Decentralized Exchange (DEX) that can be processed thousands of thousands of requests per second? The answer is Loopring see their website for details: https://loopring.org/#/

• Also why do you think RC hire this guy from Loopring prior joining to GS -it’s so obvious “Duh”.

​

Former Business u/Loopring, CFA Charterholder

​

About the NFT.GameStop Marketplace with Loopring.

RC and GS formed an “All-Star” NFT Team, some of the names already available in the public (to name a few):

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https://preview.redd.it/waemub8m93u71.png?width=288&format=png&auto=webp&s=62497b3795e06e224a8f6abb08741e6a778b472e

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https://preview.redd.it/od6typ8q93u71.png?width=317&format=png&auto=webp&s=40f594c940a9926a3def6c6260bce092f1d8362b

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https://preview.redd.it/entrvhvr93u71.png?width=324&format=png&auto=webp&s=e4f8badb6b4cebbe5bb4af2797e293fd73b5b005

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https://preview.redd.it/oxscei0t93u71.png?width=288&format=png&auto=webp&s=919e39aec10de3a0e3decf0e663ab7ff2c534625

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https://preview.redd.it/4hz6aiwt93u71.png?width=341&format=png&auto=webp&s=3db0d828227f0ec89f9f93b274ce4df3d8d256ec

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https://preview.redd.it/37h18rlu93u71.png?width=303&format=png&auto=webp&s=e2a12f8cd3c8ae3eddf54f79800fb289f824e0a9

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https://preview.redd.it/87i02knv93u71.png?width=319&format=png&auto=webp&s=22c71b985dc614b532cba713d1261e2d5c94da31

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https://preview.redd.it/1u7ldwow93u71.png?width=291&format=png&auto=webp&s=18f822c5a585e12172ac44c9f80a6c17d7a667c2

• NFT.GameStop (https://nft.gamestop.com/) –this is the NFT Marketplace where it will run in Loopring L2 Protocol 3.9.0.

(Source Code)

https://github.com/Loopring/protocols/commit/d048fa4019aa640180f041fa2e013c0a3cb8a729

Some information I picked-up from different website:

You can do other based trading on Layer-2. You can also transfer on Layer-2s. Right now, Loopring support ERC-721 and ERC-1155.

And then you have the ERC-20, I believe you have seen a lot of DD about 741 = ERC-721 + ERC-20

[ERC-20 GME Token](https://etherscan.io/token/0xd4596454a0e145842d1319d6921399e8e1622ad7)

[GME Token (ERC-20)](https://etherscan.io/token/0xd4596454a0e145842d1319d6921399e8e1622ad7) - Qty 12,000,000

[GME Token (ERC-20)](https://etherscan.io/token/0x5b7d043ecb3a694069cc01e763159ea1bde0541d) - Qty 69,420,000

Why it exceeds the total number of float shares if GS intension is 1 token for 1 share? if you read the SEC filing, GS stated that they can issue additional units (i.e., Token) “We may issue units from time to time in such amounts and in as many distinct series as we determine”.

NFT Possible Business Uses:

- In-store currency - GME Token can be used as an in-store currency/reward system.

- Crypto swap/exchange - Partner with an established cryptocurrency company to facilitate listing and conversion/exchange between crypto such as USDC or miscellaneous established coins or altcoins, and GME specific tokens. Use a GME app to manage a crypto wallet and exchange between various tokens/coins/currencies.

- NFT Collectibles - i.e., CryptoKitties, Gods Unchained, etc. Facilitate in-person trading (either in-store or via app to app trading) of digital items and collectibles between platforms.

- Digital game licensing - revolutionize DRM by hosting a record of your game license on the blockchain

- In-game item transfer/entitlement - Imagine if there was a way to trade/sell your CounterStrike skins in-person for cash, or exchange a cool knife skin for a new CryptoKitty

For conclusion, going back to Predictive Analysis of series of events and facts, I don’t think I need to spell out the outcome, the next question is when? IMHO, it’s in this quarter (4Q2021) since all the pieces of the puzzle been formed already and announcement can come anytime now.

Friendly reminder: As you know we have been invaded by lot shills, FUD and SHF interns and even Shitadel’s hired professionals as way to demoralize the Apes and trying to counter any DD or even facts by commenting that will confuse or misled others, the best you can do if you read one is to downvote them. I accept constructive criticism and willing to update/correct any misinformation if we have the majority and/or similar intensions. This is an NFA (Not a Financial Advice) – Thank you - Ey

Australian Bitcoin Meet ups

With a bit of freedom on the horizon just wondering what Meet Ups are being organised ?

I'm yet to go to a bitcoin function or event, but getting to the stage where I think I'd enjoy it.

Open to ideas :D

BTC short: Is there an upcoming crash? The analysis. Part 3

It seems like right now I am experiencing a constant time shortage that hurts my ability to get things done. It can be clearly seen that the previous post was published 1 month (29 days) ago

1st part - Examines the current state of the condition

2nd part - Examines the historical performance and behavior of the Bitcoin market

3rd part - Essentially discusses what could happen after the potential crash

Note: I am not an expert, This is not a financial advice

What could happen after the potential crash

Would you like to know how to act after the crash? A lot of traders would like to plan ahead and create a market case-specific strategy for Investing/Trading.

I do not claim that by the end of this post you will know how to act, neither I am claiming that you should act according to this post, but let's examine what could/should happen after the crash and what might be the opportunities to trade/invest in the Cryptocurrency market.

I've decided in this post to take a broader look. It is not only about Bitcoin.

The truth is Bitcoin is some sort of S&P 500 for the crypto market. It is an indication of how the crypto market performs in general. Now, I know that Ethereum by itself also has some influence on the crypto market, but let's just take a look at Bitcoin.

Possible market Bitcoin market behavior after the crash

What would Bitcoin's lowest point be after the last hype? Let's examine

Picture 1. 2013 - 2014 hype

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https://preview.redd.it/ep02d39yw2u71.jpg?width=1345&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9448f3bcd76f5d05638cf36dbb90f2962f934cd2

Let's draw a Fibonacci retracement from an arbitrary price before the hype to the lowest point after the 1st wave after the all-time high of the hype

It seems like the price sets its lowest point after the last hype at 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.

Picture 2. 2017 - 2018 hype

​

https://preview.redd.it/m9989g3zw2u71.jpg?width=1339&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=65d4c856fc5af408b778e5ce37a8aa644b42d605

The same story goes here. The lowest point after the last hype usually appears to be at 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.

Also, the price did not go below the all-time-high of a previous hype

Picture 3. 2020 - 2021 hype

​

https://preview.redd.it/yerv1pzzw2u71.jpg?width=1343&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=01f82ca70f3c18c4d6359d50c0070241d7b18969

Certain rules can be derived from these findings.

1. The price is unlikely to go below the all-time high of a previous hype
2. It is likely that the price will bottom at 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level
3. The lowest point after the hype is usually below the 1 Fibonacci retracement level

What also can be found is that with each hype the price tops at lower Fibonacci levels than in previous hypes. In 2013-2014 the price was able to reach 4.236 Fibonacci levels, in 2017 - 2017 only the 3.618 Fibonacci level was reached, in 2020 - 2021 the price failed to reach 3.618 level, but stopped halfway through 2.618 and 3.618 levels

It indicates that the hypes are getting weaker with each consecutive hype. The volatility is decreasing

It seems obvious because It is easier to get from 500 $ to 5 000 $ than it is to get from 5 000 $ to 50 000 $ in price.

Fundamental side of the picture

Bitcoin dominance is declining.

Picture 4 Bitcoin dominance index 2014 - 2021

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https://preview.redd.it/9zak6kr0x2u71.jpg?width=1342&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ec704b8f23abd9118b2992aa6f90c00873c0f65

This index tracks the Bitcoin market capitalization relative to the compound market capitalization of multiple different cryptocurrencies

Right now, BTC Dominance stands at 44.45%

Bitcoin Community

The community itself is being actively censored, more specifically the r/Bitcoin and other major online forums

I am not going to explain much in detail, but the narrative in the majority of the community is controlled by core developers and other individuals who are interested in keeping the block size of Bitcoin to 1 megabyte or less.

Due to about 1 MB block size and the fact that Bitcoin is designed in the way that each block is being created approximately every 10 minutes, Bitcoin is limited in speed of processing transactions.

How many transactions does the Bitcoin network complete in a second? 7. It processes 7 transactions per second.

Due to the fact that each transaction contains a certain amount of data, There's a limited number of transactions that can be fit in 1 block. Each block is being created approximately every 10 minutes. Bitcoin transactions with the highest fees offered are being processed first. Other transactions with lower fees have to wait longer to be processed than those that have higher fees. This creates a certain kind of competition for "being processed first or quickly", which drives the fees upward.

This creates a big scalability issue and hurts Bitcoin's ability to grow its market capitalization over the long run

Now, there are 2 groups who have specific special interests Bitcoin core developers and big miners

Bitcoin core developers have an intent to keep the block size small in order to force users to use Second Layer solution networks (L2) such as Lighting, Liquid, etc.

Miners are interested more in the "fees competition" style of average fee hike.

More on that issue can be found here:

1. https://archive.is/LStzf
2. https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/g72lwe/how_did_blockstream_manage_to_keep_the_small/
3. https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/p8crst/we_can_see_what_happened_to_bitcoin_btc_everyone/
4. https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/c65og0/why_are_bitcoin_transaction_fees_so_high/
5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjwVtl-VBDw
6. https://youtu.be/_Kav2K1DVWo

7.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMWnaR5uJxQ&t=751s

1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfcvX0P1b5g

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin_scalability_problem

There are also some things.....

There's a soft fork that is going to take effect in November, (presumably on November 17). It is called Taproot.

Bitcoin and Lighting networks already have the capacity and ability to host smart contracts, but the taproot makes a few changes. It aims to improve the privacy of digital signatures and the functionality of smart contracts.

Picture 5. "Taproot " - search popularity according to Google trends

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https://preview.redd.it/lys49s52x2u71.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c03bff3cae651710a578c060fe3c471920070e01

It looks like this search item is rising in popularity right now. The recent price surge of BTC to 57 000 $ and rising in popularity of the "taproot" search item suggest that the news of taproot fork going into the effect is already pricing in.

This may lead to a sudden (but small in value) crash at the date of the event and BTC bulls offloading liquidity on those who are buying after the Taproot fork goes into effect

More in this article: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/12/bitcoin-taproot-upgrade-what-it-means.html

Despite all of that, I am somewhat bullish on Bitcoin in the long term

There are the following reasons

The first is that Bitcoin is still maintaining its position as the №1 Cryptocurrency in the market. Being the first crypto founded definitely helps, but the thing is It succeded in spreading its brand and association to the Cryptocurrency market and Decentralized finance as a whole

Just, imagine if an average person, unfamiliar with Cryptocurrency hears the word "Cryptocurrency", the most probable thing that would come to the mind of that individual would be "Bitcoin", let's face it.

Second, the Developer community and the Influence of Bitcoin on all other coins technologically.

Bitcoin still has one of the biggest crypto developer communities. There are still a large number of core developers who are constantly working on improving the code of the network. This still ensures some viability in the future.

Bitcoin also has a core technological influence on altcoins. A lot of altcoins were created as hard forks of Bitcoin or their modified versions of Bitcoin.

When considering its technological influence, the original Bitcoin whitepaper still serves as a primary guide for creating new cryptocurrencies.

Third, Bitcoin has successfully rebranded itself as a store of value.

Look, it may be disputed that whether It is an efficient way of storing value, but the idea of that use has been spread quite widely. Bitcoin is still viewed as a safe crypto investment choice with long-term growth potential. The fact that It is stored on a decentralized blockchain and the funds can be accessed anywhere only fuels that idea of a "digital store of value". (Although I do understand that some other coins can do that more efficiently, with better additional features).

Fourth, Bitcoin has the most or one of the most secure networks among Cryptocurrencies

There are about 13738 nodes as of the time of writing this post (according to this tracker)

There are more than 1 000 000 miners (article)

The network's hash rate is about 145 EH/S (tracker) and its mining difficulty is about 19.89 Trillion hashes (source)

but...

The real reason that I am being bullish on BTC in the long term is the price behavior it exhibits due to Quadrennial halving cycles. Given all of the facts, BTC still has the vitality to continue its hypes at least in 2025 and 2029.

Beyond 2029 I am not able to be sure whether BTC will have some potential to rise, being able to enter into hypes, or even be relevant in the market at all

What could be done in this market?

In the previous post, I gave an estimate that BTC's price may find its lowest point in April 2022 or somewhen in Spring 2022

Is BTC itself in its pure nature a good investment? Probably not.

Altcoin and cryptocurrency derivatives provide much better returns. Investing in these, while tracking the BTC and Ethereum as "market averages", may provide a starting point for creating a systematic Investing strategy for the cryptocurrency market.

One way, I would play the presumable crash in BTC is by buying Long term European style Put options with 8 months expiration period (European style options on average are cheaper than American style options)

but, that's a recent play. If the BTC would dip as planned, it is highly likely that BTC and cryptocurrency market would enter into the "Crypto Winter" period. A period of low volatility in the market, before it enters into the next consecutive hype.

Picture 6. Crypto winter 2014 - mid-2017

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https://preview.redd.it/zt7tklp3x2u71.jpg?width=1342&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da63c1323bec2d8c2d6fc0c3ebfb3e5f239ee61f

Picture 7. Crypto winter 2018 - mid-2020

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https://preview.redd.it/agxeq1k4x2u71.jpg?width=1343&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b7e406f5b55cdb3798019c5276fc5adb443fc87

Imagine that a Trader/Investor enters the market in the period of "Crypto winter". One should assume that at some date in the future that he/she could estimate the BTC and cryptocurrency market would enter into the hype again.

What would be possible good things to do in this market?

Total return swaps.

If an Investor/Trader assumes that this market has a generally upward direction, It would be interesting for him/her to buy a Total return swap. It allows obtaining the position without actually buying the underlying and it also allows for obtaining leverage. (Bill Hwang moment could probably come to mind, but if considering such a move to this particular situation It's worth a look)

Now, I haven't found any platform/ broker or a party that would offer this product, If anyone of you knows, any party that offers something like this, then please, let me know in the comments.

Long-term call options. If someone were to make the same assumption that is mentioned above, Long-term calls could be a great instrument. The same thing as with total return swaps, It allows to obtain the position without underlying and It opens the room for leverage. Moreover, such an option would limit risking funds to the amount of premium paid. However, in this case, the timing would be important, but it's generally easier to time on a long term scale than on a short term

Deep value investing in altcoins. The term deep value investing is not really that common in the context of Cryptocurrency as of now. I stumbled upon a video of one person, applying his investment method that heavily focuses on the Fundamentals of Cryptocurrency. Now, he entered the market in a pretty favorable time for him (August 2019). This allowed him to make the gains presented in the video.

A good deep value investing strategy could be derived from a set of methods and rules that put their main focus on fundamentals.

Watching out for "Crypto Market averages" would be an important thing to do for estimating and timing the catalysts (the cause of the price change ) that would drive a specific altcoins' price higher.

Market advising and Asset management. Hey! If you can make money on the market by using your own funds, why not earn additional ones by providing your market advising services and/or managing other people's/organization's funds?

Although this does not specifically tell how to trade/invest in the market, It could be a solid way to generate income from the cryptocurrency market. Isn't it?

What I would do

Perhaps, I can make a draft of my plan in this post. How would the portfolio look like after April 2022? Let's give the values noted in percentages.

5 - 10 % Monero

I am not going to explain the full detail of this move, but what makes it interesting is that this cryptocurrency is designed for what it is exactly supposed to do. Serving as a means of exchange.

It is anonymous (unlike Bitcoin), meaning that is almost impossible to trace peer-to-peer transactions. It is highly unlikely to even know how many coins does a certain wallet contain.

It is designed to be private and in some ways, It could be a great store of value. Suppose you want to hide some sum of funds from everyone. What you could do is to buy Monero (anonymously, not in KYC exchanges), store it in your cold wallet. It does not have to be stored anywhere. The 24-word seed phrase would be your wallet. The tokens you bought, are being stored on the blockchain.

Your wallet could be accessed from any device, just by using the 24-word seed phrase. It is unlikely that anyone could find out the fact of your possession of Monero unless that person/entity stumbles on indirect clues/evidence of that possession.

There is a value in privacy, and it can be reflected upon the price.

25 % Bitcoin

This may sound odd, but some Bitcoin will be needed for derivatives. More specifically for selling Calls, according to strategies of covered calls, straddles, iron curtains and etc.

25 % Fiat Cash reserved for derivatives

The same goes over here. Cash will be needed to sell Cash secured covered puts and for selling puts for other strategies. Plus It could be used, for buying options and other derivates

30 -35 % Deep value altcoins

As I've explained above investing in Deep value altcoins while monitoring "Crypto market averages" could be a potentially lucrative endeavor.

Of course, the Total market capitalization of a coin has to be relatively small in order for the investment decision to be viewed as a deep value opportunity

10 % Fiat cash reserved for quick buys

There are always quick opportunities for buying something that might be temporarily in a hype.

To see, what I am referring to let's take a look at this page.

Picture 8. Binance announcing the listing of SuperRare (RARE). Time is shown in UTC + 00:00

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https://preview.redd.it/xlakj1m5x2u71.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=03550c61a137c582c1a1456576d86dd90e710702

Picture 9. Price of SuperRare (RARE) skyrocketing due to the announcement. Time is shown in UTC + 00:00

​

https://preview.redd.it/i53hhib6x2u71.png?width=979&format=png&auto=webp&s=106cb400237320d85059dfec74023c4c2206063a

Picture 10. Binance announcing the listing of Adventure Gold (AGLD). Time is shown in UTC + 00:00

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https://preview.redd.it/bbz7r827x2u71.png?width=990&format=png&auto=webp&s=10e6a6bc4a22224fccbd84b8468571f61575c76b

Picture 11. Price of SuperRare Adventure Gold (AGLD) skyrocketing due to the announcement. Time is shown in UTC + 00:00

​

https://preview.redd.it/orauwat7x2u71.png?width=989&format=png&auto=webp&s=3099047ff6c825296e4db36047ab6e92e6198150

There are bots and algorithms made to capitalize on these kinds of events, upon announcements and upon the listings themselves

There are a lot of other momentum tradings opportunities that could be spotted by scanning the web (scrapping Discord, Twitter, Reddit and etc.), spotting the available pairs on major exchanges, and buying the specific tokens

So what's next?

I am not a Bitcoin "Permabear" and I am not a Bitcoin maximalist.

I do believe, that there are going to be the next Bitcoin hypes in 2025 and 2029.

I am an opportunist who is playing the long game. I do believe the active involvement and research will only multiply the benefits of Investing in the Cryptocurrency market.

Further action and research have to be done......

BTC short: Is there an upcoming crash? The analysis. Part 3

it seems like right now I am experiencing a constant time shortage that hurts my ability to get things done. It can be clearly seen that the previous post was published 1 month (29 days) ago

1st part - Examines the current state of the condition

2nd part - Examines the historical performance and behavior of the Bitcoin market

3rd part - Essentially discusses what could happen after the potential crash

Note: I am not an expert, This is not a financial advice

What could happen after the potential crash

Would you like to know how to act after the crash? A lot of traders would like to plan ahead and create a market case-specific strategy for Investing/Trading.

I do not claim that by the end of this post you will know how to act, neither I am claiming that you should act according to this post, but let's examine what could/should happen after the crash and what might be the opportunities to trade/invest in the Cryptocurrency market.

I've decided in this post to take a broader look. It is not only about Bitcoin.

The truth is Bitcoin is some sort of S&P 500 for the crypto market. It is an indication of how the crypto market performs in general. Now, I know that Ethereum by itself also has some influence on the crypto market, but let's just take a look at Bitcoin.

Possible market Bitcoin market behavior after the crash

What would Bitcoin's lowest point be after the last hype? Let's examine

Picture 1. 2013 - 2014 hype

​

https://preview.redd.it/0kr9wxj1y2u71.jpg?width=1345&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ab4e1d888b136b6af94f1b7f3e11402ea85c2654

Let's draw a Fibonacci retracement from an arbitrary price before the hype to the lowest point after the 1st wave after the all-time high of the hype

It seems like the price sets its lowest point after the last hype at 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.

Picture 2. 2017 - 2018 hype

​

https://preview.redd.it/033efvi2y2u71.jpg?width=1339&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c19e9d8959358d0255fd56255b61c26e8a0ff12b

The same story goes here. The lowest point after the last hype usually appears to be at 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.

Also, the price did not go below the all-time-high of a previous hype

Picture 3. 2020 - 2021 hype

​

https://preview.redd.it/0anh7oe3y2u71.jpg?width=1343&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=989781ffdd76ee39cb9b4f275db42302eb546cab

Certain rules can be derived from these findings.

1. The price is unlikely to go below the all-time high of a previous hype
2. It is likely that the price will bottom at 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level
3. The lowest point after the hype is usually below the 1 Fibonacci retracement level

What also can be found is that with each hype the price tops at lower Fibonacci levels than in previous hypes. In 2013-2014 the price was able to reach 4.236 Fibonacci levels, in 2017 - 2017 only the 3.618 Fibonacci level was reached, in 2020 - 2021 the price failed to reach 3.618 level, but stopped halfway through 2.618 and 3.618 levels

It indicates that the hypes are getting weaker with each consecutive hype. The volatility is decreasing

It seems obvious because It is easier to get from 500 $ to 5 000 $ than it is to get from 5 000 $ to 50 000 $ in price.

Fundamental side of the picture

Bitcoin dominance is declining.

Picture 4 Bitcoin dominance index 2014 - 2021

​

https://preview.redd.it/4rhqb384y2u71.jpg?width=1342&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6808eea484b2d2870b61a2d7674cf983c93a1f52

This index tracks the Bitcoin market capitalization relative to the compound market capitalization of multiple different cryptocurrencies

Right now, BTC Dominance stands at 44.45%

Bitcoin Community

The community itself is being actively censored, more specifically the r/Bitcoin and other major online forums

I am not going to explain much in detail, but the narrative in the majority of the community is controlled by core developers and other individuals who are interested in keeping the block size of Bitcoin to 1 megabyte or less.

Due to about 1 MB block size and the fact that Bitcoin is designed in the way that each block is being created approximately every 10 minutes, Bitcoin is limited in speed of processing transactions.

How many transactions does the Bitcoin network complete in a second? 7. It processes 7 transactions per second.

Due to the fact that each transaction contains a certain amount of data, There's a limited number of transactions that can be fit in 1 block. Each block is being created approximately every 10 minutes. Bitcoin transactions with the highest fees offered are being processed first. Other transactions with lower fees have to wait longer to be processed than those that have higher fees. This creates a certain kind of competition for "being processed first or quickly", which drives the fees upward.

This creates a big scalability issue and hurts Bitcoin's ability to grow its market capitalization over the long run

Now, there are 2 groups who have specific special interests Bitcoin core developers and big miners

Bitcoin core developers have an intent to keep the block size small in order to force users to use Second Layer solution networks (L2) such as Lighting, Liquid, etc.

Miners are interested more in the "fees competition" style of average fee hike.

More on that issue can be found here:

1. https://archive.is/LStzf
2. https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/g72lwe/how_did_blockstream_manage_to_keep_the_small/
3. https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/p8crst/we_can_see_what_happened_to_bitcoin_btc_everyone/
4. https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/c65og0/why_are_bitcoin_transaction_fees_so_high/
5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjwVtl-VBDw
6. https://youtu.be/_Kav2K1DVWo

7.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMWnaR5uJxQ&t=751s

1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfcvX0P1b5g

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin_scalability_problem

There are also some things.....

There's a soft fork that is going to take effect in November, (presumably on November 17). It is called Taproot.

Bitcoin and Lighting networks already have the capacity and ability to host smart contracts, but the taproot makes a few changes. It aims to improve the privacy of digital signatures and the functionality of smart contracts.

Picture 5. "Taproot " - search popularity according to Google trends

​

https://preview.redd.it/vvy4zdo5y2u71.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=63575bfb1e5bde05efe7e63e91e4df08f2abda1d

It looks like this search item is rising in popularity right now. The recent price surge of BTC to 57 000 $ and rising in popularity of the "taproot" search item suggest that the news of taproot fork going into the effect is already pricing in.

This may lead to a sudden (but small in value) crash at the date of the event and BTC bulls offloading liquidity on those who are buying after the Taproot fork goes into effect

More in this article: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/12/bitcoin-taproot-upgrade-what-it-means.html

Despite all of that, I am somewhat bullish on Bitcoin in the long term

There are the following reasons

The first is that Bitcoin is still maintaining its position as the №1 Cryptocurrency in the market. Being the first crypto founded definitely helps, but the thing is It succeded in spreading its brand and association to the Cryptocurrency market and Decentralized finance as a whole

Just, imagine if an average person, unfamiliar with Cryptocurrency hears the word "Cryptocurrency", the most probable thing that would come to the mind of that individual would be "Bitcoin", let's face it.

Second, the Developer community and the Influence of Bitcoin on all other coins technologically.

Bitcoin still has one of the biggest crypto developer communities. There are still a large number of core developers who are constantly working on improving the code of the network. This still ensures some viability in the future.

Bitcoin also has a core technological influence on altcoins. A lot of altcoins were created as hard forks of Bitcoin or their modified versions of Bitcoin.

When considering its technological influence, the original Bitcoin whitepaper still serves as a primary guide for creating new cryptocurrencies.

Third, Bitcoin has successfully rebranded itself as a store of value.

Look, it may be disputed that whether It is an efficient way of storing value, but the idea of that use has been spread quite widely. Bitcoin is still viewed as a safe crypto investment choice with long-term growth potential. The fact that It is stored on a decentralized blockchain and the funds can be accessed anywhere only fuels that idea of a "digital store of value". (Although I do understand that some other coins can do that more efficiently, with better additional features).

Fourth, Bitcoin has the most or one of the most secure networks among Cryptocurrencies

There are about 13738 nodes as of the time of writing this post (according to this tracker)

There are more than 1 000 000 miners (article)

The network's hash rate is about 145 EH/S (tracker) and its mining difficulty is about 19.89 Trillion hashes (source)

but...

The real reason that I am being bullish on BTC in the long term is the price behavior it exhibits due to Quadrennial halving cycles. Given all of the facts, BTC still has the vitality to continue its hypes at least in 2025 and 2029.

Beyond 2029 I am not able to be sure whether BTC will have some potential to rise, being able to enter into hypes, or even be relevant in the market at all

What could be done in this market?

In the previous post, I gave an estimate that BTC's price may find its lowest point in April 2022 or somewhen in Spring 2022

Is BTC itself in its pure nature a good investment? Probably not.

Altcoin and cryptocurrency derivatives provide much better returns. Investing in these, while tracking the BTC and Ethereum as "market averages", may provide a starting point for creating a systematic Investing strategy for the cryptocurrency market.

One way, I would play the presumable crash in BTC is by buying Long term European style Put options with 8 months expiration period (European style options on average are cheaper than American style options)

but, that's a recent play. If the BTC would dip as planned, it is highly likely that BTC and cryptocurrency market would enter into the "Crypto Winter" period. A period of low volatility in the market, before it enters into the next consecutive hype.

Picture 6. Crypto winter 2014 - mid-2017

​

https://preview.redd.it/597tacq6y2u71.jpg?width=1342&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=31ae1ef36e8467b2541b5c834f99f44deaad9d30

Picture 7. Crypto winter 2018 - mid-2020

​

https://preview.redd.it/hupbjdg7y2u71.jpg?width=1343&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=76eba7c26cc4d7c3956f373e730dc95c90851d38

Imagine that a Trader/Investor enters the market in the period of "Crypto winter". One should assume that at some date in the future that he/she could estimate the BTC and cryptocurrency market would enter into the hype again.

What would be possible good things to do in this market?

Total return swaps.

If an Investor/Trader assumes that this market has a generally upward direction, It would be interesting for him/her to buy a Total return swap. It allows obtaining the position without actually buying the underlying and it also allows for obtaining leverage. (Bill Hwang moment could probably come to mind, but if considering such a move to this particular situation It's worth a look)

Now, I haven't found any platform/ broker or a party that would offer this product, If anyone of you knows, any party that offers something like this, then please, let me know in the comments.

Long-term call options. If someone were to make the same assumption that is mentioned above, Long-term calls could be a great instrument. The same thing as with total return swaps, It allows to obtain the position without underlying and It opens the room for leverage. Moreover, such an option would limit risking funds to the amount of premium paid. However, in this case, the timing would be important, but it's generally easier to time on a long term scale than on a short term

Deep value investing in altcoins. The term deep value investing is not really that common in the context of Cryptocurrency as of now. I stumbled upon a video of one person, applying his investment method that heavily focuses on the Fundamentals of Cryptocurrency. Now, he entered the market in a pretty favorable time for him (August 2019). This allowed him to make the gains presented in the video.

A good deep value investing strategy could be derived from a set of methods and rules that put their main focus on fundamentals.

Watching out for "Crypto Market averages" would be an important thing to do for estimating and timing the catalysts (the cause of the price change ) that would drive a specific altcoins' price higher.

Market advising and Asset management. Hey! If you can make money on the market by using your own funds, why not earn additional ones by providing your market advising services and/or managing other people's/organization's funds?

Although this does not specifically tell how to trade/invest in the market, It could be a solid way to generate income from the cryptocurrency market. Isn't it?

What I would do

Perhaps, I can make a draft of my plan in this post. How would the portfolio look like after April 2022? Let's give the values noted in percentages.

5 - 10 % Monero

I am not going to explain the full detail of this move, but what makes it interesting is that this cryptocurrency is designed for what it is exactly supposed to do. Serving as a means of exchange.

It is anonymous (unlike Bitcoin), meaning that is almost impossible to trace peer-to-peer transactions. It is highly unlikely to even know how many coins does a certain wallet contain.

It is designed to be private and in some ways, It could be a great store of value. Suppose you want to hide some sum of funds from everyone. What you could do is to buy Monero (anonymously, not in KYC exchanges), store it in your cold wallet. It does not have to be stored anywhere. The 24-word seed phrase would be your wallet. The tokens you bought, are being stored on the blockchain.

Your wallet could be accessed from any device, just by using the 24-word seed phrase. It is unlikely that anyone could find out the fact of your possession of Monero unless that person/entity stumbles on indirect clues/evidence of that possession.

There is a value in privacy, and it can be reflected upon the price.

25 % Bitcoin

This may sound odd, but some Bitcoin will be needed for derivatives. More specifically for selling Calls, according to strategies of covered calls, straddles, iron curtains and etc.

25 % Fiat Cash reserved for derivatives

The same goes over here. Cash will be needed to sell Cash secured covered puts and for selling puts for other strategies. Plus It could be used, for buying options and other derivates

30 -35 % Deep value altcoins

As I've explained above investing in Deep value altcoins while monitoring "Crypto market averages" could be a potentially lucrative endeavor.

Of course, the Total market capitalization of a coin has to be relatively small in order for the investment decision to be viewed as a deep value opportunity

10 % Fiat cash reserved for quick buys

There are always quick opportunities for buying something that might be temporarily in a hype.

To see, what I am referring to let's take a look at this page.

Picture 8. Binance announcing the listing of SuperRare (RARE). Time is shown in UTC + 00:00

​

https://preview.redd.it/idojdi49y2u71.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb90701f82f0bc58e8b91e6faf37ead4b7083fd9

Picture 9. Price of SuperRare (RARE) skyrocketing due to the announcement. Time is shown in UTC + 00:00

​

https://preview.redd.it/4zi331u9y2u71.png?width=979&format=png&auto=webp&s=e130dc96d5a0496dc82db26ede450a3d299b0656

Picture 10. Binance announcing the listing of Adventure Gold (AGLD). Time is shown in UTC + 00:00

​

https://preview.redd.it/m21cc9gay2u71.png?width=990&format=png&auto=webp&s=503ec056377481543f77867de984ba355dc19016

Picture 11. Price of SuperRare Adventure Gold (AGLD) skyrocketing due to the announcement. Time is shown in UTC + 00:00

​

https://preview.redd.it/b89umi9by2u71.png?width=989&format=png&auto=webp&s=50ea5eaf40152c8ad959d9344399867d75b0991d

There are bots and algorithms made to capitalize on these kinds of events, upon announcements and upon the listings themselves

There are a lot of other momentum tradings opportunities that could be spotted by scanning the web (scrapping Discord, Twitter, Reddit and etc.), spotting the available pairs on major exchanges, and buying the specific tokens

So what's next?

I am not a Bitcoin "Permabear" and I am not a Bitcoin maximalist.

I do believe, that there are going to be the next Bitcoin hypes in 2025 and 2029.

I am an opportunist who is playing the long game. I do believe the active involvement and research will only multiply the benefits of Investing in the Cryptocurrency market.

Further action and research have to be done......

BTC short: Is there an upcoming crash? The analysis. Part 3

It seems like right now I am experiencing a constant time shortage that hurts my ability to get things done. It can be clearly seen that the previous post was published 1 month (29 days) ago

1st part - Examines the current state of the condition

2nd part - Examines the historical performance and behavior of the Bitcoin market

3rd part - Essentially discusses what could happen after the potential crash

Note: I am not an expert, This is not a financial advice

What could happen after the potential crash

Would you like to know how to act after the crash? A lot of traders would like to plan ahead and create a market case-specific strategy for Investing/Trading.

I do not claim that by the end of this post you will know how to act, neither I am claiming that you should act according to this post, but let's examine what could/should happen after the crash and what might be the opportunities to trade/invest in the Cryptocurrency market.

I've decided in this post to take a broader look. It is not only about Bitcoin.

The truth is Bitcoin is some sort of S&P 500 for the crypto market. It is an indication of how the crypto market performs in general. Now, I know that Ethereum by itself also has some influence on the crypto market, but let's just take a look at Bitcoin.

Possible market Bitcoin market behavior after the crash

What would Bitcoin's lowest point be after the last hype? Let's examine

Picture 1. 2013 - 2014 hype

​

https://preview.redd.it/xofiq3xmz2u71.jpg?width=1345&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b68bf622de72c7da8bb67a43ab22b9747ee75987

Let's draw a Fibonacci retracement from an arbitrary price before the hype to the lowest point after the 1st wave after the all-time high of the hype

It seems like the price sets its lowest point after the last hype at 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.

Picture 2. 2017 - 2018 hype

​

https://preview.redd.it/tsyb8iwnz2u71.jpg?width=1339&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=408064b186a099a815ae7f5329453fcb1ab5fa0c

The same story goes here. The lowest point after the last hype usually appears to be at 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.

Also, the price did not go below the all-time-high of a previous hype

Picture 3. 2020 - 2021 hype

​

https://preview.redd.it/gv28k9qoz2u71.jpg?width=1343&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9e3e24b91cadba5c006eebd778a3c40ff6d14f30

Certain rules can be derived from these findings.

1. The price is unlikely to go below the all-time high of a previous hype
2. It is likely that the price will bottom at 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level
3. The lowest point after the hype is usually below the 1 Fibonacci retracement level

What also can be found is that with each hype the price tops at lower Fibonacci levels than in previous hypes. In 2013-2014 the price was able to reach 4.236 Fibonacci levels, in 2017 - 2017 only the 3.618 Fibonacci level was reached, in 2020 - 2021 the price failed to reach 3.618 level, but stopped halfway through 2.618 and 3.618 levels

It indicates that the hypes are getting weaker with each consecutive hype. The volatility is decreasing

It seems obvious because It is easier to get from 500 $ to 5 000 $ than it is to get from 5 000 $ to 50 000 $ in price.

Fundamental side of the picture

Bitcoin dominance is declining.

Picture 4 Bitcoin dominance index 2014 - 2021

​

https://preview.redd.it/t2ihmcjpz2u71.jpg?width=1342&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eab94e97818a7a6f0c2bfb7d06b4b930f05d341a

This index tracks the Bitcoin market capitalization relative to the compound market capitalization of multiple different cryptocurrencies

Right now, BTC Dominance stands at 44.45%

Bitcoin Community

The community itself is being actively censored, more specifically the r/Bitcoin and other major online forums

I am not going to explain much in detail, but the narrative in the majority of the community is controlled by core developers and other individuals who are interested in keeping the block size of Bitcoin to 1 megabyte or less.

Due to about 1 MB block size and the fact that Bitcoin is designed in the way that each block is being created approximately every 10 minutes, Bitcoin is limited in speed of processing transactions.

How many transactions does the Bitcoin network complete in a second? 7. It processes 7 transactions per second.

Due to the fact that each transaction contains a certain amount of data, There's a limited number of transactions that can be fit in 1 block. Each block is being created approximately every 10 minutes. Bitcoin transactions with the highest fees offered are being processed first. Other transactions with lower fees have to wait longer to be processed than those that have higher fees. This creates a certain kind of competition for "being processed first or quickly", which drives the fees upward.

This creates a big scalability issue and hurts Bitcoin's ability to grow its market capitalization over the long run

Now, there are 2 groups who have specific special interests Bitcoin core developers and big miners

Bitcoin core developers have an intent to keep the block size small in order to force users to use Second Layer solution networks (L2) such as Lighting, Liquid, etc.

Miners are interested more in the "fees competition" style of average fee hike.

More on that issue can be found here:

1. https://archive.is/LStzf
2. https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/g72lwe/how_did_blockstream_manage_to_keep_the_small/
3. https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/p8crst/we_can_see_what_happened_to_bitcoin_btc_everyone/
4. https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/c65og0/why_are_bitcoin_transaction_fees_so_high/
5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjwVtl-VBDw
6. https://youtu.be/_Kav2K1DVWo

7.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMWnaR5uJxQ&t=751s

1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfcvX0P1b5g

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin_scalability_problem

There are also some things.....

There's a soft fork that is going to take effect in November, (presumably on November 17). It is called Taproot.

Bitcoin and Lighting networks already have the capacity and ability to host smart contracts, but the taproot makes a few changes. It aims to improve the privacy of digital signatures and the functionality of smart contracts.

Picture 5. "Taproot " - search popularity according to Google trends

​

https://preview.redd.it/v3ljj7fsz2u71.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9f9885aa70701b2654e2c56a085e4a7e6460f5bf

It looks like this search item is rising in popularity right now. The recent price surge of BTC to 57 000 $ and rising in popularity of the "taproot" search item suggest that the news of taproot fork going into the effect is already pricing in.

This may lead to a sudden (but small in value) crash at the date of the event and BTC bulls offloading liquidity on those who are buying after the Taproot fork goes into effect

More in this article: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/12/bitcoin-taproot-upgrade-what-it-means.html

Despite all of that, I am somewhat bullish on Bitcoin in the long term

There are the following reasons

The first is that Bitcoin is still maintaining its position as the №1 Cryptocurrency in the market. Being the first crypto founded definitely helps, but the thing is It succeded in spreading its brand and association to the Cryptocurrency market and Decentralized finance as a whole

Just, imagine if an average person, unfamiliar with Cryptocurrency hears the word "Cryptocurrency", the most probable thing that would come to the mind of that individual would be "Bitcoin", let's face it.

Second, the Developer community and the Influence of Bitcoin on all other coins technologically.

Bitcoin still has one of the biggest crypto developer communities. There are still a large number of core developers who are constantly working on improving the code of the network. This still ensures some viability in the future.

Bitcoin also has a core technological influence on altcoins. A lot of altcoins were created as hard forks of Bitcoin or their modified versions of Bitcoin.

When considering its technological influence, the original Bitcoin whitepaper still serves as a primary guide for creating new cryptocurrencies.

Third, Bitcoin has successfully rebranded itself as a store of value.

Look, it may be disputed that whether It is an efficient way of storing value, but the idea of that use has been spread quite widely. Bitcoin is still viewed as a safe crypto investment choice with long-term growth potential. The fact that It is stored on a decentralized blockchain and the funds can be accessed anywhere only fuels that idea of a "digital store of value". (Although I do understand that some other coins can do that more efficiently, with better additional features).

Fourth, Bitcoin has the most or one of the most secure networks among Cryptocurrencies

There are about 13738 nodes as of the time of writing this post (according to this tracker)

There are more than 1 000 000 miners (article)

The network's hash rate is about 145 EH/S (tracker) and its mining difficulty is about 19.89 Trillion hashes (source)

but...

The real reason that I am being bullish on BTC in the long term is the price behavior it exhibits due to Quadrennial halving cycles. Given all of the facts, BTC still has the vitality to continue its hypes at least in 2025 and 2029.

Beyond 2029 I am not able to be sure whether BTC will have some potential to rise, being able to enter into hypes, or even be relevant in the market at all

What could be done in this market?

In the previous post, I gave an estimate that BTC's price may find its lowest point in April 2022 or somewhen in Spring 2022

Is BTC itself in its pure nature a good investment? Probably not.

Altcoin and cryptocurrency derivatives provide much better returns. Investing in these, while tracking the BTC and Ethereum as "market averages", may provide a starting point for creating a systematic Investing strategy for the cryptocurrency market.

One way, I would play the presumable crash in BTC is by buying Long term European style Put options with 8 months expiration period (European style options on average are cheaper than American style options)

but, that's a recent play. If the BTC would dip as planned, it is highly likely that BTC and cryptocurrency market would enter into the "Crypto Winter" period. A period of low volatility in the market, before it enters into the next consecutive hype.

Picture 6. Crypto winter 2014 - mid-2017

​

https://preview.redd.it/bvv2m2gtz2u71.jpg?width=1342&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=51f7632e17c98e9ccf73d45aef795a20b92b7637

Picture 7. Crypto winter 2018 - mid-2020

​

https://preview.redd.it/f0u4vn4uz2u71.jpg?width=1343&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b50600b6c6010dd917a098435143993386d2d21e

Imagine that a Trader/Investor enters the market in the period of "Crypto winter". One should assume that at some date in the future that he/she could estimate the BTC and cryptocurrency market would enter into the hype again.

What would be possible good things to do in this market?

Total return swaps.

If an Investor/Trader assumes that this market has a generally upward direction, It would be interesting for him/her to buy a Total return swap. It allows obtaining the position without actually buying the underlying and it also allows for obtaining leverage. (Bill Hwang moment could probably come to mind, but if considering such a move to this particular situation It's worth a look)

Now, I haven't found any platform/ broker or a party that would offer this product, If anyone of you knows, any party that offers something like this, then please, let me know in the comments.

Long-term call options. If someone were to make the same assumption that is mentioned above, Long-term calls could be a great instrument. The same thing as with total return swaps, It allows to obtain the position without underlying and It opens the room for leverage. Moreover, such an option would limit risking funds to the amount of premium paid. However, in this case, the timing would be important, but it's generally easier to time on a long term scale than on a short term

Deep value investing in altcoins. The term deep value investing is not really that common in the context of Cryptocurrency as of now. I stumbled upon a video of one person, applying his investment method that heavily focuses on the Fundamentals of Cryptocurrency. Now, he entered the market in a pretty favorable time for him (August 2019). This allowed him to make the gains presented in the video.

A good deep value investing strategy could be derived from a set of methods and rules that put their main focus on fundamentals.

Watching out for "Crypto Market averages" would be an important thing to do for estimating and timing the catalysts (the cause of the price change ) that would drive a specific altcoins' price higher.

Market advising and Asset management. Hey! If you can make money on the market by using your own funds, why not earn additional ones by providing your market advising services and/or managing other people's/organization's funds?

Although this does not specifically tell how to trade/invest in the market, It could be a solid way to generate income from the cryptocurrency market. Isn't it?

What I would do

Perhaps, I can make a draft of my plan in this post. How would the portfolio look like after April 2022? Let's give the values noted in percentages.

5 - 10 % Monero

I am not going to explain the full detail of this move, but what makes it interesting is that this cryptocurrency is designed for what it is exactly supposed to do. Serving as a means of exchange.

It is anonymous (unlike Bitcoin), meaning that is almost impossible to trace peer-to-peer transactions. It is highly unlikely to even know how many coins does a certain wallet contain.

It is designed to be private and in some ways, It could be a great store of value. Suppose you want to hide some sum of funds from everyone. What you could do is to buy Monero (anonymously, not in KYC exchanges), store it in your cold wallet. It does not have to be stored anywhere. The 24-word seed phrase would be your wallet. The tokens you bought, are being stored on the blockchain.

Your wallet could be accessed from any device, just by using the 24-word seed phrase. It is unlikely that anyone could find out the fact of your possession of Monero unless that person/entity stumbles on indirect clues/evidence of that possession.

There is a value in privacy, and it can be reflected upon the price.

25 % Bitcoin

This may sound odd, but some Bitcoin will be needed for derivatives. More specifically for selling Calls, according to strategies of covered calls, straddles, iron curtains and etc.

25 % Fiat Cash reserved for derivatives

The same goes over here. Cash will be needed to sell Cash secured covered puts and for selling puts for other strategies. Plus It could be used, for buying options and other derivates

30 -35 % Deep value altcoins

As I've explained above investing in Deep value altcoins while monitoring "Crypto market averages" could be a potentially lucrative endeavor.

Of course, the Total market capitalization of a coin has to be relatively small in order for the investment decision to be viewed as a deep value opportunity

10 % Fiat cash reserved for quick buys

There are always quick opportunities for buying something that might be temporarily in a hype.

To see, what I am referring to let's take a look at this page.

Picture 8. Binance announcing the listing of SuperRare (RARE). Time is shown in UTC + 00:00

​

https://preview.redd.it/n8sb9gkvz2u71.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b4afe1d1645112e4d9d4ee7a53229fb06cc14ab

Picture 9. Price of SuperRare (RARE) skyrocketing due to the announcement. Time is shown in UTC + 00:00

​

https://preview.redd.it/5qyn9eawz2u71.png?width=979&format=png&auto=webp&s=7aac6a8c789b85ddb7d719683b855726f9298427

Picture 10. Binance announcing the listing of Adventure Gold (AGLD). Time is shown in UTC + 00:00

​

https://preview.redd.it/6pvlwb1xz2u71.png?width=990&format=png&auto=webp&s=63148598803bf2886e054d3e0182b22cf79a6317

Picture 11. Price of SuperRare Adventure Gold (AGLD) skyrocketing due to the announcement. Time is shown in UTC + 00:00

​

https://preview.redd.it/icgfadsxz2u71.png?width=989&format=png&auto=webp&s=f8a2cbd429612067a8e28fb11eb1a2b22d4292b7

There are bots and algorithms made to capitalize on these kinds of events, upon announcements and upon the listings themselves

There are a lot of other momentum tradings opportunities that could be spotted by scanning the web (scrapping Discord, Twitter, Reddit and etc.), spotting the available pairs on major exchanges, and buying the specific tokens

So what's next?

I am not a Bitcoin "Permabear" and I am not a Bitcoin maximalist.

I do believe, that there are going to be the next Bitcoin hypes in 2025 and 2029.

I am an opportunist who is playing the long game. I do believe the active involvement and research will only multiply the benefits of Investing in the Cryptocurrency market.

Further action and research have to be done......

The Ideal Economy

https://preview.redd.it/nxxm10lcm2u71.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bfd4a0a362e55ba796534a193c3a294f4c6cfcea

I am not an economist, but in light of current events with cryptocurrencies and the economy in general, I would like to share my thoughts on some kind of ideal economy, around which everything is happening now.

In order to understand the meaning of an ideal economy, you have to start at the base of all economies. For example, let's say there is a small village. Each resident has a profession, goods to sell, and a list of what they would like to buy. To exchange services and goods, the inhabitants need money as a kind of buffer for the difference in the exchange. In general, buying and selling services and goods is all that interests modern society.

For example, there are 5 inhabitants, and money for all 100 (rubles, dollars, euros). Suppose they have enough of these 100 rubles to exchange with each other and do not need more and less.

The village has the Internet. The 5 residents opened a website and exchange these 100 rubles between them through the site or mobile application. But how does this site work? What if the administrator of the site secretly adds money to himself? To prevent this from happening, they made the account status of each resident open. Now every member can sum up all the accounts and get 100 rubles. All participants always have 100 rubles. Any administrator was not able to draw money for himself, because then the amount of money would be more than 100 rubles.

For the convenience of calculating, the sum of money was made not 100 rubles, but 0 rubles. To do this, from the state of the account of all participants was subtracted, half of all money.

Instead of 0 rubles, it is now -50 (minus fifty). 0 means 50 rubles in the account, and 50 means 100 rubles in the account. With each transaction between residents, the one who paid got minus to his account, and the one who sold plus.

For example, resident 1 bought goods from resident 2 and transferred 10 rubles to him. After that, the account of resident1 was minus 10 rubles, and the account of resident2 was plus 10 rubles.

Thus, regardless of the amount of money, the sum did not change, and money was created at the time of the transaction and there was exactly as much as was needed.

Years went by, the village developed and grew. New residents appeared, and they also wanted to get into the site.

When new residents were added to the village, they could either earn money or they were given trust credit.

To earn money - that, I think, is clear to everyone. And the credit of trust - this is a kind of mechanism by which the site could create more than 100 rubles.

The village eventually became a city, and like in all cities, the city had a mayor. Who monitored the site and added new members and gave them the credit of trust.

Trust credit is a kind of restriction for each resident to leave in the minus. For new members it was 0, and for old, verified this lower limit could be -100, -200, -300.... So, if sum the lower limits of all members, it is possible to receive quantity of all money on a site, but it did not matter, because summing up all states of accounts of residents should result in zero. That was the main verification.

It turns out that all participants with a negative balance owed money to participants with a positive balance, and if all participants with a negative balance reimburse all participants with a plus, the amount of their plus, it turns out that no one owes anyone anything.

As time went on, stores and markets opened in the city. Some stores had too much demand for goods. In order to fight monopoly, it was decided to introduce a maximum of money. A store could not earn more than a certain amount of money. The money that the store made more than the maximum went to charity.

The mayor could now change the maximums and regulate monopoly in the city and change the minimums, thus regulating the amount of money in the city and inflation.

All residents were automatically or manually charged for city services such as police, fire, ambulance and emergency services.

The poorest residents were known to everyone and could always be helped by wealthier residents.

At the same time, the wealthiest were also known and everyone understood that they had earned their money honestly. Stealing money lost its meaning, because everyone had interest-free trust credits, and the mayor regularly monitored inflation, and it was perfect in the city.

One small server handled all of the city's transactions, because there was no need to use cryptocurrencies or blockchain.

Every resident had a rating, which was formed by calculating the grades for transactions, and basically everyone had 10 out of 10. And those who had a low rating tried to increase it in every way possible, because for some their income depended on it.

It's a model of managed capitalism. It can manage everything necessary for the harmonious development of the village/city/country/world.

If you apply this model to the current economies of the world, it is clear that in one way or another all economies are striving for managed capitalism. Now to become a competent economist you need to know the above model of managed capitalism and be able to give advice on how to bring the current economy a little closer to a managed economy. Of course, it won't convert at all, but it is possible to get closer.

We can (it's all been done before):

- introduce rating, as in managed capitalism;

- manage inflation and monopolism as in managed capitalism;

- give money to the poor so they are not so poor;

- reduce the number of banks, because in managed capitalism there is only one, so it can be reduced to one;

- to introduce mandatory income, as in managed capitalism this is achieved by using the maximum; (the rich reach the maximum, and then their income is distributed among the poor automatically)

- to fight corruption, because in managed capitalism corruption is practically defeated. Of course, it cannot be conquered at all, but if it can be, it is the same as in managed capitalism.

- To manage the distribution of money between organizations, as in managed capitalism. Only there it is possible to do this by voting of all inhabitants, while in the current economies it is mostly done by one person.

- reduce/centralize advertising. After all, in managed capitalism, all advertising can be on one site.

- to collect donations from all the people. In managed capitalism, this is done as quickly and efficiently as possible, and always on one site, with the ability to track that the money has actually reached the recipient.

Let's look at the current economy.

The first thing that matters in it - is it possible to steal? is who releases the money. The government does that.

They estimate the rate of inflation and try to affect it by releasing money.

So they print a billion, but how do they pass it on to the people?

Some goes to replace old banknotes with new ones. Some part is issued to the population, through complex schemes, through credits. Perhaps made up government orders with markups of 10 and 100 times. Some is injected through the purchase of foreign currency. Exactly how this happens is known to a very small circle of people. For the average person, it is a secret.

No one knows the exact amount of money in the country. Some houses may have billions in stashes, and no one knows about it, and of course this is taken into account when calculating inflation.

Accordingly, everyone is somehow guided by millions, billions, trillions, Forbes magazines, but no one can say for sure whether he is the richest or the poorest.

Instead of the maximums of managed capitalism, there have been created anti-monopoly companies. Perhaps in some cases it is true that maximums alone will not solve the problem, but it would greatly simplify the work of such departments.

This is spontaneous capitalism. It is poorly managed and extremely inefficient, as everyone has probably already guessed. In this kind of capitalism, the worst thing is for the common people. They may not even be aware of them, those who in any way affect the income of the population by regulating inflation. All the inefficiencies of spontaneous capitalism fall on their shoulders.

So people have started to invent cryptocurrencies. They are trying to find an alternative that can somehow move spontaneous capitalism out of the way.

The government, by intuition or having some brains, sometimes tries to straighten the economy out of a severe lurch (or political crisis) by making it look a little like managed capitalism, in the ways mentioned above. It really works. The boat wobbles, but it floats forward.

The issuance of money in such a spontaneous economy is not initially democratic. Because the distribution of issued money cannot take place fairly and equally for all people. The money is not issued directly to the people and cannot be verified.

Most of the money is stolen. There is very little money that reaches the general population.

Let's look at the economics of cryptocurrencies.

I understand that everything there is still in the process of creation and change. But already now we can see the first outlines of a certain economic model.

The money is produced by mining. The money goes to big "whales" (cryptocurrency slang) - very rich people/companies. The sum of money is very difficult, but can be counted - this resemblance to managed capitalism kind of adds to the temptation to use cryptocurrency.

Large movements of money are regularly announced - also similar to managed capitalism, but that's not the main point.

Various systems like the Lighting Network are used to make quick transactions, to be similar to managed capitalism.

There is no governance of the crypto economy. It is the impact of decentralization combined with blockchain. The lack of management means that everything is spontaneous again, and no one is immune to money theft or loss. And in absolutely any amount. Whether it's city funds or one person's.

Since there is no management, this means a severe lack of the social part of managed capitalism. The social part is:

- managed redistribution of money among companies (when it is necessary to fly to Mars) (simple targeted fundraising in managed capitalism);

- material equality (having minimums and maximums of managed capitalism that equalize the inhabitants);

- management of inflation and monopoly (the ability to change minimums and maximums).

Because of this, such an economy would make no more sense than the current spontaneous capitalism. Already we have information that the largest holders of Bitcoin are the richest people/companies, which were the richest before Bitcoin. That is, the use of decentralized money will not change anything, without the social part, which by definition cannot be in it.

There may be some crutches that can add the social part to blockchain currencies, but why reinvent the wheel?

The social part is essentially centralization, which directly contradicts the possibilities of blockchain. Its implementation at some moment requires a ban on transactions, for example, and this is impossible in blockchain or Lighting Network or other cryptocurrency systems.

Inflation of cryptocurrencies is a certain ratio of their popularity to their quantity or costs of mining. Inflation not controlled by anyone - can change, for example, at the will of some large holder who decides to commit suicide and at the end drastically depreciate the cryptocurrency, distributing it to all comers. Or an always-increasing currency means a bubble that will burst someday.

There is no monopoly control at all. We get a bunch of monopolies, kings, monarchies...

Consider decentralization.

Decentralization, for example, allows cryptocurrencies to stay alive, no matter how they are blocked by different countries and no matter how they are fought against.

So decentralization can be different. It can be, drum roll, spontaneous and managed.

Spontaneous decentralization is like all cryptocurrencies, where it is impossible to prohibit the transaction of participants and there is no social part (management).

Managed decentralization is when the database on which the economy is based is decentralized, but there is some manager or group of managers who administer and manage the system. But the system is decentralized and can reside on a group of an unlimited number of computers. This decentralization can be used to create managed capitalism. There can be an infinite number of databases and they can all be managed by different people.

Conclusions

The model of managed capitalism is great, but unfortunately it is difficult to implement for various reasons today. However, this does not mean that we should not pursue this goal. Therefore, it is obvious that to stabilize any economies we should now look at managed capitalism and borrow some traits. This will help avoid big problems with any economy.

The topic is very debatable. So I created a Telegram group to discuss the article: https://t.me/joinchat/bUUO6EIsNJpmMzE6

[US] Please help me understand. Bitcoin tipping / small transactions and taxes

I like to think I understand how Bitcoin works, both in theory and in practice pretty well. But one thing just makes no sense to me whatsoever: Twitter adding Bitcoin tipping, people paying for things back and forth with lightning.. by US law, every single little transaction is a taxable capital gains event!

What are people doing? Are they keeping track of all of this in a giant spreadsheet? Are they ignoring it and hoping the IRS doesn’t notice? Are they going to report each little tip as a zero basis sale to the IRS?

To me it seems like a MASSIVE PROBLEM that is barely mentioned. The previous episode of Speaking of Bitcoin went into Bitcoin tipping and explored all sorts of reasons about why it is not happening much, and mentions “issues with taxes” as a throwaway before spending the entire episode on ther things. I feel like I am missing something or might just be just genuinely stupid. Please help me understand. Thank you.