How do Aussies. I met with my accountant the other day to get some taxation clarity pre-payment. Of course the millions I've inevitably lost through theft are not a capital loss, and let's face it... the capital input deductions on BTCs that have been locked up since 2014 are practically insignificant. Therefore the blunt assessment is something like this: The ATO will treat bitcoins returned under the civil rehabilitation as my own bitcoins. Therefore getting some this year will not count as a CG event until they are cashed out. Apps like cryptotaxcalculator etc might need a bit of convincing of this, but your accountant should be able to force this assessment. If you chose cash only then I suspect you will have to treat the return to you as the point at which you have a CG. In that case (or when you sell) there will be the 50% CG deduction for having held the asset for more than 12 months, and then the balance will be treated as income in the year you cashed it and taxed according to current tax brackets. Therefore (especially with the current brackets - worth looking very closely at) it's worth spreading out the liquidation of BTC. Also, don't forget that you might be able to shift a good deal of it into your Super using your Unused Concessional Superannuation Contributions. If you're anywhere near fifty then it's not long until you get it back... just a bit more than you've waited so far and the tax treatment on the Super contributions will be very impressive compared to straight CG. Get your own tax advice, of course, but speaking for myself this whole adventure has been a one off, never to be repeated boon. No point blowing it once it arrives. Get yourself something nice... sure... but pretend you've always been rich and do what rich people do - invest prudently in tax advantaged ways. PS if anyone in Australia has contrary tax advice, I'd be most grateful to hear it. Hoo Roo.
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Lightning: Open Channel, Sign, Broadcast, Remove. What is all of this?
I'm used to normal BTC, but I just wanted to make a donation, and found out they only supported Lightning, so I decided to convert some with my Electrum wallet. I had very little knowledge before, but over some events, things got confusing, so I ask for a more complete answer to try to understand better what is happening.
I had opened a new channel, and it selected "Electrum trampoline" as default, so I kept it as is, I selected the amount of BTC _(I read that there is a minimum value? But it was a bit over 0.003BTC, so I think it should be fine)_
I thought that was it, and nothing changed, I assumed maybe the fees weren't high enough, but I saw the button to `Sign`, and thought it could be required, so I did it, and things changed, but then it asked to broadcast.
One thing I had read was that for lightning to work, you need both sides always online, and I left my phone there, but forgot about it, and when I saw it again, I noticed that it was talking about broadcasting it again, or to delete the request.
I then remembered of the always on rule, and guessed it didn't go ahead after all, so I considered just removing the transaction and trying again with a higher fee to get things faster (I usually have no haste in my transactions).
And after removing, the transaction doesn't appear anymore in my list, however, there is a "Lightning balance" there. At first I panicked as I thought that my main balance had its funds removed, but after manually summing all values, it seems that wasn't the case, so my "Total Balance" is now the sum of my proper "On-chain" balance and a value in Lightning that supposedly doesn't exist.
So before trying again, now I want to ensure proper understanding of the limitations if someone could kindly explain it.
Edit:
I found a bit more of information through the option "Channels" in the left menu, then I found out the channel I had created even though I closed the request, and there I could properly shut it down and so on.
Also found out a bunch of rules, such as that you can't receive Lightning in your open channel (that acts like a wallet) until you spend some of it.
From what I read, you need to spend to be able to receive ,although just as much as what you spent, so without having used it yet, I'm guessing the channel you open is basically the largest amount of BTC you can get in the Lightning network, although I'm likely wrong, as if that were the case, it would have been impossible to make a first transaction.
Anyway, At least I found that I had indeed spent some bitcoins on that failed try, and that I could get them back.
Monday, May 6, 2024
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How terrible do you think my current situation is? WARNING: VERY LONG POST, READER DISCREATION IS ADVICED
Alright, I need to get this out of my chest. I basically am getting a bit desperate as a 27 year old male from an Eastern European Country. Never had a real job. So here's a brief explanation on what lead to all this...
After I graduated high school (2016) went to university (public administration which was just to have access to cheap place to live through dormitory which is given to the students from the university and its cheaper way to live while I attend an IT C# course offline) and got into C# programming lectures for 1 semester (3months). Unfortunately, I've struggled with time going to university lectures (even though It wasn't my main focus at all) and programming lectures. So when the time for the first test came I failed C# test and I had to continue my learning online. I saw that as a complete failure (because the whole purpose of me going was that I can attend in person and it is an offline course) and basically had no reason to live in an expensive city. Also, I didn't really like programming but because it a job that pays well and because I have experience with computers since I was a child my parents, brother and I all thought this to be a good career path. (I knew coding isn't for me I just can't grasp it unfortunately...). I also left university.
I go back home town to my parents with tail tucked between my legs. I did have a plan B and I know you would think its stupid but hear me out (was 19 at the time) and keep in mind I live in an relatively cheap Balkan European country.
Before I finished high school I was playing semi-professionally a gaming esport title. Now, I thought I can try and pursue a gaming career (with more time on my hands) - its not as bad as it seems. I only thought that was a valid choice because I did show decent results at the time (at the peak of my form I was around top 150-200 in the world with 200k+ active player base) I could try make a living out of this... was streaming on twitch (2015) started making youtube videos (2017)... but I lacked consistency and discipline in uploading (my main focus at the time was still improving at the game) and my content wasn't anything special. I got invited by a local gaming team which promised on words that there will be a salary at some point and even signed a contract with them (they will pay my expenses going to tournaments and we would split the prize pool). At the end of the day there wasn't any salary, which would've allowed me a steady income for more emotional stability ( this will become a factor later on)
So, in 2020 I decide to quit competitive gaming for good. There were many reasons. I wasn't satisfied with the game's state (the game was in a decline and the company that created it had terrible managing and huge reputational wounds) and my own performance which at that point was in plateau and I saw no potential in wasting more time trying to chase something I no longer enjoyed.
My twitch channel wasn't growing at all...
I wish I had put more effort into Youtube because at that time 2017-2020 they actually did improve the algorithym and discoverability. That way I could've gathered a small audience but enough to maybe start gathering some momentum on Twitch. That was a valid strategy which I remember vividly another streamer did. He managed to grow his audience from 30-40 concurrent viewers to 300-400 on twitch in the span of 6-12 months thanks to his youtube videos getting a lot of viewers and transferring them to his twitch channel. (eventually going to 1k+ on a good day)
In retrospect maybe it was for the better that I quit because I didn't like playing the game anymore, I've already had spent 7 years into it. I got a lot out of it went to many local events in my country, I was also able to go to two international events in Spain and Ukraine. I met some cool people in my country and otherwise I would've never known.
During my gaming years I also did coaching sessions where other players will book a 1 hour lesson and pay to teach them how to improve their gameplay. Since it is an esport it did have regular people booking hours which wasn't anything huge but helped a bit...(If I ever got big on twitch or youtube I could've made more revenue from coaching as well, that was one of my ideas back then) That is what kept me to stay for longer and not quit earlier... I was able to get small sums of money from minor online and local tournaments(managed to get the huge amount of about $100 from twitch ONCE! lmao) and was coaching whenever I had booked in hours from mostly Americans :D I love them for that! I also never had complains and I honestly believe people were satisfied because some of them kept booking multiple sessions! Also, I was living with my parents so I didn't have to pay bills which actually allowed me to continue for longer. I am telling all of this because one of my gaming "students" payed a coaching session with ethereum. (back when ETH was trading for ~$100) That is one of the main drivers that got me into my next life chapter.
Anyways, fast forward all this mid 2020 I had no plans of what I am going to do and the world was shut down due to the sickness we all know quite well.
Fun Fact: back when I was in the gaming team the owner was building a gaming house and I went there once and saw that he had a GPU mining rig with about 8 GPU's there. That was in late 2019 or early 2020 I don't quite recall exactly. Also I had previous experience with mining bitcoin in 2015 for a maybe a day or a few hours I don't know anymore (I don't think I even had bitcoin wallet so I just mined for whoever the software was attached to)...
Another fun fact: in 2019 when I was coming back from a tournament there was a guy in the train who told me stories about his brother bitcoin mining farm and the police getting him arrested for illegal things (maybe stealing electricity who knows) and yeah was a interesting story but I don't quite remember most of it and might have been made up it doesn't really matter...
To conclude, all this made my transition in the crypto world was relatively smooth as I did have an experience with crypto so I wasn't totally in the black but still a big newbie overall, still had a small acount of ETH from my coaching sessions!
So, in 2020 I saw my ethereum had risen in dollar terms quite decently and I got intrigued. Started researching and saw that it could be GPU mined and I put my gaming rig to work! I had a gaming rig with GTX 1070 Ti second hand and I must have had it for 2 years at that point. Boys it payed for itself MULTIPLE times :D... With all my savings I build a mining rig and in total I have 4 gpus that are mining. Meanwhile, I read, watch, learn all about crypto.
I got really lucky with my entry timing... But I did something smart, in stead of buying coins with my savings I had no idea of I decided to invest into GPU's which I know will retain some of their value even after 1-2 years(if all this crypto thing is a scam and a ponzi scheme and the value of all the ethereum I mine goes to zero) That is back in late 2020 and GPU's prices were still normal. Now we know that there was no wrong choice in either "investment" back in 2020/2021 - The Massive Bull Run that took place everywhere.
in 2022 the bear market enters and as I am a complete noob I didn't know when to cash out so I got out very late about between 30k - 40k BTC value .( before the major bankruptcies) I didn't sell that top, no where near that. At the time I was watching too many crypto influencers so I wasn't aware... Fortunately, I didn't get burnt by any of the major bankruptcies or Terra Lunas, etc... In the end I managed to sell my mining rig for a profit while still mining with it for about year and a half... I also sold my PC... Basically liquidating all my assets thinking that after ethereum mining will shut down GPU prices will normalize... Well, not completely wrong, but not completely right either.
Then, in mid 2022 my next transition I decide to take trading seriously (not only crypto but trading as a whole) and I buy a course (BUILDING A BASIC TRADING STRATEGY)... I got obsessed all my time was spent into learning the markets (gone through 10 courses Volume Profile, Footprint, Price Ladder, etc) ... Late 2022 discovered futures prop firms and begun my trading journey (on the cheaper side - funding and blowing a real futures account would've been way too expensive for me at that point).
As you would have guessed it, its current day and unfortunately things didn't go well - I am broke. But it's not because trading is bad or prop firms are a scam... No, the main issue I came to realize were my emotions. I am too emotionally unstable (because I have no steady income) and the fact that I NEED to make money from trading is causing me to not follow my rules, my plan, to rush my setups, afraid of losing, revenge trading and I keep losing because I do exactly the opposite of what I should. I managed to discover my edge in 6 months but I just can't obey my rules and can't keep my winners running. Significant amount of the losses I take I shouldn't even be in those trades, those are the so called gamble trades because I have no structure there but I still end up in those somehow.
However, thanks to trading I learnt skills I didn't have before and I believe they would've helped me with my gaming if I knew back then: basic excel spreadsheet and journaling my trading - thanks to that I found market edge. Learnt to discover trends and patterns. Moreover, I had to face deep childhood traumas that were buried in my psyche. Had to experience again my emotional blockages on a deeper level. Those emotions did affect me negatively in my gaming career and were one of the reasons why I had choked in tournaments and couldn't perform - same exact struggles happening now but with trading.
I have no regrets on my choices in either field. Trading allowed me to learn so much about myself and my own weaknesses and inner demons. I am very thankful for that and I realize there is a price for that knowledge and I payed for that. I was fortunate because the market gave me the initial capital through the crypto bull market and then mostly took it back but left me with much experience.
When I started trading I had hoped that if I sacrifice everything (I didn't have much of a social life but still sacrificed that to the markets, time, money, energy, heart and soul) I have I can learn to trade and become successful. At the beginning I was more afraid that I wouldn't be able to come up with a good strategy and a market edge. I underestimated how important psychology would be and had forgotten how fragile my emotional state can be at crucial times.
In conclusion, for any employer I am 27 year old male, with no university degree, no working background, empty CV, nothing. I see how screwed I am and I know that my choices led to that.
Still, the lessons I've learnt are valuable to me and don't regret anything.
P.S. If you read all this, thank you, you are a legend.
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Sunday, May 5, 2024
The best 3 onchain indicators that will signal the BTC blowoff top (so you don't miss it)
Hey,
ever noticed how BTC at $63k can feel totally different from one week to the next?
Now you might wonder why.
Sure, market sentiment is a big factor, but there’s more to it.
Think about this: When BTC was at $16k in 2017, everyone was euphoric.
Fast-forward to 2022, and BTC hits $16k again, and suddenly, everyone's in despair.
Even though the price was the same, the onchain metrics painted a vastly different picture.
In 2017 they were overheated and in 2022 they were oversold.
The biggest mistake most investors make is that they never look at onchain metrics.
That’s why I will share my top 3 on-chain metrics with you so that you can identify the best time to sell near the peak.
The three metrics can help you time the market without needing to look at the price of BTC are:
- MVRV
- NUPL
- Puell Multiple
Let’s start with MVRV
1️⃣ MVRV (Market value realized value)
This metric measures whether Bitcoin is overvalued compared to its historical average.
If MVRV exceeds 2, it indicates that the current price is much higher than what most holders paid, suggesting that we are moving towards the peak.
However, keep in mind the MVRV has exceeded 4.0 in 2021 which shows it can go much higher than expected.
You can look at the current BTC MVRV value [here](#).
2️⃣ NUPL (Net unrealized profits and loss)
NUPL identifies the overall market sentiment by showing the proportion of Bitcoin holdings in profit or loss.
A NUPL value in the "greed" zone (above 0.7) is very strongly correlated with market tops.
The higher it goes the stronger the sell signal.
You can look at the current NUPL value [here](#).
3️⃣ Puell Multiple
This onchain metric compares the daily earnings of Bitcoin miners against the average over the past year.
View the Puell Multiple chart [here](#).
Here’s how to use the Puell Multiple:
Puell Multiple > 2.5 = You should sell up to 25%+ of your BTC/alts on upward moves. This will give you a lot of capital to buy back during capitulation events.
Puell Multiple > 5 = You should be selling 75%+ of your BTC portfolio. Furthermore, you must set sell orders for your altcoins, as they often pump after BTC pumps.
If you want a more in-depth read with charts and links then read this version here.
Look at this the way I do!
I said this a month and half ago that if we that vested got one person to invest a less than 200$ we would have hit the hard cap. This supposed to be a community driven event that we bought into. Again I’ll say mindset. If I was having this baby, I wouldn’t leave it lying there in afterbirth, I’d would do everything possible to ensure that would make it in the deep waters, that from pen to paper I dotted all the I’s and crossed all the T’s and it safe and secure firmly placed and set up for the success I created it for, ( Thank you for doing that for us),… I know everyone knows everything about how to put in place all the protocols necessary to secure a token on the Ethereum Blockchain, and we all know the proper way to bring it to market introduce a true rival to bitcoin, but we just didn’t do it. In fact no one has til now. Scams do happen, BUT people that have the knowledge to do so, scam MILLIONS of dollars from people eventually most go to prison. If the team that created MOLLARS had the knowledge to accomplish what they have accomplished, It’s not all about getting their pockets fat, just think about it. Just like a credible business that is successful has to a business plan, websites and processes, so does a creator of a digital currency with the White Paper. Road map. Tokenomics . I firmly believe they could have created a shit coin took it live and gotten a million dollars a lot quicker. No bull shit legally. Think about it. If they could create what they have, they could have a lot easier and a lot less time and effort created Elonsbabiesmomma Inu. Tokenomics trillion coins burn one for each sold, (sounds pretty good right)spend a couple thousand to bots on media platforms to boost it and then when blows up, white paper shows that they get 10% or whatever they would make millions not two million, 30-100 million are what ever. But they created a Mollars a SVT with half the supply of Bitcoin why if you had the knowledge and know how to create what they have would you risk going to prison over a million or two million ??? And I can pretty much guess that it’s not just one person doing everything it’s a team plural so they chop it up and walk away with 400k$ if that’s the case give everyone there money back and contact me with your knowledge and my ideas, you could make millions at no risk of prison. I hope that makes sense to everyone. Scams in digital currency makes 100’s of millions of dollars a year. And most have been caught and imprisoned and the others live in fear. Now that that’s out of the way. Here’s my thoughts backed by facts and little about me. I found out about Mollars on CoinGecko and CryptoRank which reports most scams and give information about presales. After doing my due diligence I decided to buy in without going to Social media sites because I saw evidence of the potential for this project but I have never bought in a presale before because of so much crap that is out there.And I didn’t want to be swayed by the consensus of someone who is trolling or had a bad day. Historically after Bitcoin halving, which this time the data is different especially after ETF approval and BTC reaching its ATH pre halving. But after. ever crypto follows BTC Trajectory very volatile the first couple weeks I paid with Eth as some of you others. The volatility is real for a lot of reasons market conditions, investor sentiment. According to Ycharts the US investors were 32.14%bullish two weeks ago the action was sideways and /or down compared to 4 weeks ago last week was 38.49% and now that investors know what the Feds are doing with rates the market will continue as it historically does on its upward trend, and based off information that by the 31st of this month both major players will be a lot higher in price compared to the 30th of April, for Mollars investors we will have a higher evaluation and time for the management to see if any other exchanges want to play ball will be some point before the end of the month, it didn’t help that the feds aren’t lowering the rates. @mollarinvestingchad you have been a champion for this project and I don’t know what you have in this, but you are part of this community and for you to make a comment from the emotional state you were in at that was difficult to read. Let’s not forget the terms and conditions of our investment. I don’t know exactly where I saw it, but the management did apologize, but did it for the people. I have been a winner since investing and I have lost . But I stand bullish and if have an negative emotions they are kept to myself for the greater good of the community, when you have a negative feeling or attitude it’s contagious and it gives a voice to those who have been hating on this project from day one. This isn’t a rug pull Im completely confident in that, every one of us that has skin in the game needs to come together as the Mollars family and prosper and grow stronger. In every business I had expectations and goals that I was going to achieve, and some I have failed one way by not the profits I set, for unforeseen reasons because of licensing issues taking 7 months longer to get them, Covid screwed up and set back my biggest one. One of the number one selling t-shirt and koozies in the 80’s had a saying written on them that said “ Shit Happens “ the words you can put in front of that can have behind it can sway to mean it’s positive or negative. But it will always suggest a reason. And to have reason, you have action and in this case the action is for a good reason. It’s to help us grow more??! Limitless. Let’s all rally together and support our team leaders and their decisions. After I invested I went through some tough times . Where 20$ was the difference of me feeding my dog first and then myself, luckily I have been good to people and have built relationships where when I’m going through something I had basically what I consider family to help out. And everyone that knows me I always pay it forward 10 fold. You can say I’m a good guy with good moral compass, I’m a protector and I’m not one where people can confuse my kindness as weakness because I’m a warrior and have put myself in harm’s way to protect or defend someone I care for, in fact I’ve done for complete strangers. Against odds. I never cared about what people thought, I only cared for what’s right. Jumping someone because of race are religion is not right, man hitting a woman, and in my presence since I can remember those people got to know me real personal like. I am a different breed because I have witnessed events where several people could maybe prevented or stopped before I could get to them. Most of the times it wasn’t popular, but no one could say it wasn’t right. In business I have lost in the short term because of principles of different matters . I would be and I am better at face to face engagement of any kind at any time. I don’t use code names or user names that I don’t go by, And when I commit to something I’m committed.. And I believe that this is an opportunity of a lifetime for those of you that have or willing to invest and become part of this new community there’s something that has to change and it’s us it depends on us to build value and let people know that we’re part of something that is going shake up Bitcoin . I know it’s a lot easier to be negative when everyone is still trying to speculate . But I promise you, not only in this community but in every community the long term effects, the residual value and benefits of being positive and committing to apply this in everything in life , you’ll see doors open you never thought possible, you will be recognized by your peers differently, that see you as being more creative , a real one and you will become the a leader built with value, knowledge and a type of strength you have always wondered about, like how things seem so easy for some people and that tough for others. We live in a fast growing world and the Elites will somehow find a way to take away our rights to get in projects like this. I hope it doesn’t happen but we are in the fight of our lives to keep Crypto defi and unregulated but right now they haven’t and I believe this our chance and I hope it is the vision of the creators of Mollars and everyone of us see the greatness that can come for building the community for Mollars because it’s going to make Millionaires and when we become that I hope that we will want to have a clear mission to be better. Less be honest right now not one of us are whales yet. Whales move what our hard cap is daily .And the value of a 1$ dollar is something different for every person on this Earth but will not change anyone’s life for a time. But picture this, your maintain a positive mindset about your investment and you remain bullish. If see the event of turning 1$ in 2$ isn’t the attitude that we as a community should, but turning 1 Mollar into a house, or college tuition, or drinking water for a third world country. No limit mindset is truly decentralized and it’s a choice that will require discipline and accountability for how you respond and approach every decision you make. What would you do without limits. This possible and the blueprint on how to achieve is written in this comment that I hope transcends as one of the many stones to house our community needs in pursuit of the same goal, not only to profit but be better than we are now and invite someone else along with us on this limitless journey in our lives, to be better than we were the day before. To become the best version of ourselves and it is shown everywhere anywhere anytime. That we bought into one of the greatest digital assets ever created and we not only make a difference in our own lives but we are truly free to make a difference in this world. Everyone that bought in, now let’s collectively buy in this mindset that is 100 - Mollar will become as big as we imagine it to be. Let’s grow as a community and write our own future together. Don’t just read this, engage with me with your positive mindset. Share what you would like to achieve. We need to act as if, Mollars has surpassed any expectations. If we all come together with a positive message, not about the set backs we personally feel, but what you want it to be. We got hacked in the middle of presale that took time to straighten things out, but the team pulled us through. We could have lost it, but they stood up for us and now let’s stand with them. Let’s make today the best day. Everyone engage with volumes of positive expectations and we are just in overtime and we will win. Let’s everyone blow up our own social media accounts proudly explain why you are in. Let’s Go !!!!