https://renditecloud.com/2024/10/04/beste-assetklassen-im-jahr-2024/
Saturday, October 5, 2024
Friday, October 4, 2024
BTC Updated 7-Day Price-Broad Outlook: October 5 - October 11, 2024 (As of October 5, 2024, 12:00 AM EST)
Updated Bitcoin 7-Day Price-Outlook: October 5 - October 11, 2024 (As of October 5, 2024, 12:00 AM EST)
Current Market Conditions
GEOPOLITICAL NOTICE: Escalated geopolitical conflict/military action has the potential to quickly shift market sentiment, triggering selling in speculative assets like Bitcoin, as investors flee to safer investments such as gold and the U.S. dollar, drastically altering projections and driving prices down rapidly.
Bitcoin’s current price is approximately $61,379, reflecting the ongoing geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty. The Iran-Israel conflict continues to drive a risk-off sentiment, pushing investors to safer assets like the U.S. dollar and gold, leading to downward pressure on Bitcoin. However, ETF inflows, particularly from BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, are providing some stabilization, preventing more drastic declines. The next week will see Bitcoin testing critical support and resistance levels.
7-Day Bitcoin Price Outlook (October 5 - October 11, 2024)
| Date | Market Sentiment | Adjusted High | Adjusted Low | Key Factors Impacting Prices | Corrections & Triggers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | Neutral | $64,500 | $60,500 | Geopolitical tensions causing risk-off sentiment | Likely test of $60,500 if selling pressure intensifies. |
| Oct 6 | Slightly Bullish | $65,500 | $61,000 | ETF inflows might provide support to sustain gains | $61,000 remains a critical support level. |
| Oct 7 | Neutral | $66,000 | $61,500 | Consolidation as market watches geopolitical events | Support must hold at $61,500 for continued stability. |
| Oct 8 | Slightly Bullish | $67,000 | $62,000 | Potential recovery, but limited by macroeconomic factors | Resistance near $67,000 could lead to profit-taking. |
| Oct 9 | Neutral | $66,000 | $61,500 | Minor correction after a high test | Cooling momentum could lead to retesting $61,500. |
| Oct 10 | Bullish | $68,000 | $63,000 | Optimism builds, expecting a bullish breakout | Failure to hold above $63,000 may cause a pullback. |
| Oct 11 | Neutral | $67,500 | $64,000 | Market stabilizes as traders await mid-month developments | Support at $64,000 likely to hold; upside capped at $67,500. |
Key Factors Impacting Prices:
- Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict is creating significant uncertainty, driving risk-averse behavior in markets and leading investors away from speculative assets like Bitcoin.
- ETF Inflows: While BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has continued to attract inflows, many other Bitcoin ETFs have experienced significant outflows. On October 1, 2024, there was a record outflow of $242.6 million across several Bitcoin ETFs, highlighting investor uncertainty. This dynamic poses risks to Bitcoin's ability to maintain support levels around $61,000.
- Support and Resistance Levels: Bitcoin’s key support levels are $61,000, $63,500, and $64,000. Resistance levels sit at $67,000 and $70,000. A break below $61,000 could prompt an accelerated decline towards $55,000.
- Macroeconomic Factors: Rising oil prices and inflationary pressures, driven by the Middle Eastern conflict, are increasing the likelihood of tight central bank policies, which reduces risk appetite for speculative assets like Bitcoin.
Outlying Possibilities of Corrections Due to Geopolitical Events or Failure to Maintain Support
1. Geopolitical Escalation (~10%-15% Drop):
- Potential Trigger: If the Iran-Israel conflict escalates further, especially if major powers get involved, this could lead to significant market sell-offs.
- Magnitude: A 10%-15% drop (from price at time of event) is likely.
- Likelihood: Moderate (~30%-35%), depending on how the geopolitical situation evolves.
2. Failure to Maintain Key Support (~10%-15% Drop):
- Potential Trigger: If Bitcoin fails to hold the critical $61,000 support level, technical selling and liquidations could lead to a correction toward $55,000-$56,000.
- Magnitude: A 10%-15% correction could occur, driven by a breakdown of key support.
- Likelihood: Moderate to High (~40%-45%), given the proximity of current prices to support.
Technical Analysis & Indicators (As of October 5, 2024):
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): 63.77 – Bitcoin is approaching overbought conditions, indicating that a correction could be near if prices continue to rise.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): 356.18 – Positive momentum, supporting potential upward moves toward $67,000-$70,000. However, caution is warranted given the geopolitical backdrop.
- ADX (Average Directional Index): 46.47 – Suggests a strong ongoing trend, indicating further potential gains if Bitcoin holds support at $64,000.
- Stochastic RSI: 100 (Overbought) – Indicates that the market is overbought, increasing the likelihood of short-term corrections before further upside.
- ATR (Average True Range): 426.95 – Reflects high volatility, meaning price swings are likely to remain large in the near term.
Updated Combined Risk Analysis:
Scenario:
If geopolitical risks such as the Iran-Israel conflict escalate further and coincide with technical breakdowns in Bitcoin’s key support levels (e.g., $61,000), a combined 10%-15% correction is likely. The escalation could trigger market panic, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries, driving investors away from riskier assets like Bitcoin. If Bitcoin breaches critical support levels, automated sell-offs could exacerbate the decline, accelerating the move toward $55,000 +/-.
Overall Outlook:
The next 7 days present moderate to high risks for Bitcoin due to the volatile geopolitical landscape and uncertain market conditions. A deeper correction is possible if the geopolitical situation worsens or Bitcoin's technical structure weakens, leading to heightened volatility and a potential drop to the $55,000-$56,000 +/- range-or 10-15% less the price at begging of correction. Investors should closely monitor both global events and technical indicators, as they may signal the need for defensive strategies.
This update takes into account both external geopolitical threats and internal market dynamics, reflecting current risks that could significantly alter Bitcoin's price trajectory.
Series7Trader
Not Financial Advice. Please Do Your Own Research
HugeWin: A Thrilling Destination for Casino and
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Thursday, October 3, 2024
Starting with $2,300 in Micro Gold Futures - Tradeovate
Hey guys, sharing my journey!
I'm coming from the forex markets as a USA-based trader. I’m starting out with $2,300 in an account and my futures product of choice is Micro Gold Futures. My goal is to make about $4,000, which is roughly a 74% return, and then I’ll consider scaling up to Mini Gold Futures.
I trade using both technical analysis and fundamentals, paying attention to key news events. With the USD under pressure due to things like the US strikes and the war in Ukraine, I see gold as a solid safe-haven asset. I used a similar approach with Bitcoin in 2021 and it worked well for me. My strategy revolves around supply and demand setups and price action, primarily trading between 9 and 11 AM during the New York session (EST). I also look at the London session for guidance going into New York.
I risk 1-5% per trade, or about $10 to $115, leaning towards higher risk at the start to grow the account, with a max of 2 contracts. I'll try to update with P&L Screenshots.
The only issue I’m running into on Tradeovate is that I can’t seem to trade Mini Gold Futures (QO). Anyone else having this issue? For example, on any time frame lower than 1 hour, the chart is filled with gaps, which makes it impossible to scalp properly. It’s frustrating because I enjoy scalping!
Anyone else experiencing something similar or have suggestions? Thanks!
Put into perspective of how much FTX can contribute in this market
Customers from FTX will get back their investments into ftx in q4 2024, It will be up to 16B dollars! To put this into perspective I have other events and the dollar amount!
Bitcoin etf has had 18.3B in inflows!
Mt Gox was 8.8B
German government sell pressure!
All these event has caused massive spickes and dumps in Bitcoin but imagine only 50% of customers buy back into bitcoin(low number if you ask me). The market will have massive buying pressure that will cause fomo!
And remember that a bull market is really hard to stop once it starts!
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