An Alternate 2000s great depression.

I am creating an alternate history timeline for the 2000-2015 economy.

Dot-com bubble is different, despite not hurting the GDP directly (in the short-term), it bankrupts small or medium companies at time, like Amazon, Apple, Google, PayPal and Netflix, that was due bad decisions of them and not being “too big to (be let to) fail”, the survivors like Microsoft, AOL and IBM are damaged and more conservative. Other projects like Facebook, Tesla, Twitter don’t get traction, for being very risky.

By late 1990/early 2000 wall street makes political moves, it lobbies to reduce regulations and to increase FED term duration, it results in two things - Alan Greenspan being reapointed in 2006 and by 2008 banks are being leveraged at up to 35:1 for investment banks and 20-25:1 for commercial ones. Enron is bailed out due 9/11, because it was considered a strategic asset in this scenario, and of course a close allied to Bush 43, instead of letting it fall it was helped during the crisis and kept functioning. Sarbanes-Oxley doesn’t pass here either.

Gold is very discredited here, with a consensus to see this as a thing of the past from many economists, with central banks dumping them, no ETFs being released, with its prices falling under $250/oz, reaching valleys of $120/oz in rare periods. No 1999 Washington agreement on gold is done. Greenspan policies are still on - there is low quantitative easing, but interest rates are at 1%. There is no fear to house market bubbles, as Greenspan dismissed these in OTL.

China sees subprime as a valuable asset, because it is AAA risk and had higher interest returns from it compared to treasure bonds. Due CCP orders their banks and firms invests heavily on subprime, specially their real estate, construction, industry and development (institutions like ICBC, CDB and Evergrande) and places the majority of its reserves (around 2 trillion USD in 2008) in subprime assets. This is to improve growth. BRICS doesn't form here either, in real life it was a Goldman Sachs invented acronym, but here it doesn't take off.

But due butterfly effects, in 2005 Bush dies in the country of Georgia (by Vladimir Arutyunian), Cheney becomes president, he appoints McCain as VP, Rumsfeld is kept on defense, Bolton is appointed as state secretary, keeps Greenspan on FED and on treasure appoints Glenn Hubbard, responsible for tax cuts in Bush era. Senate is majority republican due these changes.

And in May 2008 Israel attacks Iran nuclear installations, Cheney follows soon, invades the gulf coast to secure oil installations. It peaks oil price to $400 in june, but in august it lowers to $200. There is a “mission accomplished” speech, that galvanizes the nation, despite only the Gulf Coast being occupied.

The 2008 election is three way - McCain/Huckabee (GOP), Hillary/Sebelius (Dem-main) and Obama/Biden (Ind-Dem), the PUMA had split the democratic party in this scenario. McCain wins, with a 51/49 senate and 220/210 house, both GOP dominated. He and the GOP won by a small margin due PUMA and the crisis not happening during the campaign.

But a few days later after the results the Lehman brothers declares bankrupcy, that is due China keeping the banks afloat. Bear Sterns, Fannie and Freddie are considered zombie banks, the other banks are very leveraged, even JP Morgan isn't healthy, it is discovered that subprime is toxic, worthless paper, but was sustained by Chinese money.

A cascading bankrupcy effect happens during mid-november to early-january, with banks and institutions like Bear Sterns, Freddie, Fannie, AIG, Merryl Lynch, BoA, JP Morgan, Citigroup, Wachovia, Fargo Wells, Merryl Lynch, Morgan Stanley, WaMu, GEFinance, GM, Ford, Chysler. There were attempts to do rescues, with the FED coordination, but the banks were so overleveraged, that didn’t worked, Cheney was a lame duck, forbid nationalizations and both Treasure and Congress weren’t much keen to do bailoits. The FED chair resigned due lack of sucess.

It hit the other corners of the world at the same time, EU banking was very connected to US systems, and the PIIGS defauted. China discovered that a good chunk of its reserves were just toxic worthless subprime, causing a massive financial collapse, ruining real estate, with Evergrande collapsing and needing a massive bailout that caused hyperinflation. Iran lanched a major missile attack on gulf refinaries, causing severe damage, with major ones like Abqaiq becoming ruins.

President elect McCain appoints Phil Gramm on treasure and Martin Feldstein as FED chair, its policy is to stimulate the economy by tax cuts, not by QE, no nationalizatons like Cheney and increase interest rates to avoid inflation. But the major priority is to end the Iran war, by winning of course, it creates a job program that is actually a compulsory draft and invest on the MIC. At the same time in early 2009 a group using the fake name “Satoshi Nakamoto” is arrested, they are indicted by disrupting the financial system and by inventing "irregular currency". Their operations are shut down and the so-called Bitcoin and criptocurrency are criminalized.

The draft is a “sucess”, with troop numbers in Iran reaching a half million by 2010, and they keeping the peace in Iraq, Afghanistan and eventually making a road to Tehran and taking the city, capturing the Ayatollah Khamenei, and placing Moussavi as interim president. But this causes massive protests in US, making the government response on new laws, it passes anti-terrorism laws and finally SOPA and PIPA to curb internet (or what remained of it) and its decentralized power.

Obama/Biden wins in 2012 due massive war opposition and leaves Iran in 2013, it causes a massive conservative backlash due the loss and TV broadcasts of the fall of Tehran similar to the Fall of Saigon in 1975. The 2014 midterms are a GOP victory, specially Tea Party members, it blocks every attempt of reform, regulation, healthcare. In 2015 there was an attempt to raise the debt ceiling, but the denied it until the country technically defauted, to enforce “fiscal discipline”.

The timeline ends here, because it is getting close to current political events and personalities.

What do you people think?

The 50 week is the new 20 week

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If you ever used to watch Ben Cowen, he used to talk about the "Bitcoin bull market support band", which at the time, was the 20 week moving average. As you can see, since this cycle has been slower and the gains far less exaggerated on a percentage basis, it looks like it's now the 50 week EMA, or exponential moving average if you're new to all this. If we trade under this for a while, then I'll believe the guys saying "the bear market has begun." I still won't give a rat's ass because I DCA and have no plans of stopping. In fact, I like to double my DCA once BTC drops by 40% or more. I've been in BTC since 2017, and the one thing I know for sure about it, is that it always likes to surprise. It's going to keep doing things for the first time because it's still a relatively young asset. In other words, you can always expect the unexpected. I love BTC because it's helped me achieve most of my financial goals, but only because I've kept a long term perspective, and I believe that this asset will trade for over a million dollars in my lifetime. I can't predict when that will happen, but I know if I just keep stacking a little every day, I'll be better positioned for when it does than if I try to trade it and end up losing sats. I figured I'd share my thoughts since a lot of the posts I've seen on this sub have been doom posts about small drops in the price, and the massive liquidation event last week that wiped out all the leveraged guys. Be well my fellow humans and keep the faith, your patience will be rewarded eventually.

2025-10-17 Strategies - For Record ($DNN $MARA $PFE $SHOP $UNH $TSM $MP)

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Introducing Hipshot - your automated event trader

The world used to be a bit orderly. Markets were open from 9:30am to 4pm, news broke through official channels or via journalism with structured approaches and rules for disclosure. Institutional traders got privileged access to information in tons of ways and inefficiencies got beaten out of the market. Average people mostly traded through their stockbrokers while adventurous folks used E*Trade for low fees and got destroyed on execution.

That world is gone.

Crypto markets are trading 24/7, news breaks on Twitter from reliable, semi-reliable, and otherwise unreliable sources whenever they feel like it. Everyday folks trade options on Robinhood or memecoins or perpetual futures 40x+ leverage.

This new market is chaotic and inefficient. Is a VP at JP Morgan up reading Twitter at 6pm on Tuesday much less 2am on a Saturday? Hell no.

In 2025 alone we've had the following events that moved Bitcoin by more than 1% over a 90 minute period (note these are just off the top of my head - there are definitely more).

• Trump announces “Now a good time to buy”
• Trump announces 90 day pause on tariffs
• Israel attacks Iran
• Iran threatens to shut Strait of Hormuz
• U.S. bombs Fordow
• Iran retaliates by bombing UAE base
• Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire
• Trump re-threatens China with tariffs

Enter Hipshot

Hipshot lets anyone (and no account needed to poke around) define an event, follow accounts on Twitter, and set up a trade (for now, crypto only) on leverage. The app tests all posts by the followed accounts against the criteria you set for your event, and fires your pre-set trade when it sees a match. It's not sentiment analysis or phrase matching, it's using latest LLMs to do a full evaluation each time.

And you don't just have to trade major world events that move Bitcoin. Hipshot lets you set up a trade against any asset tradeable on Hyperliquid, which is hundreds of crypto assets. We plan to expand the tradeable universe to e.g., equities as soon as we can.

Your trades are private to you, but Hipshots are public entities. So you can share the Hipshot itself and others can join the trade. With a referral code you'll earn a share of their fees (when we turn them on). You can browse other Hipshots to join in or create your own.

Excited to see what people do with this. Please note that we're in Beta, the app surface is large, and we're a small team (just me and a friend). So please send any and all product feedback you have, and only deposit what you can afford to lose. Note that there is no need to create an account or deposit if you just want to explore or join the Discord.

Here's the Hipshot I'm targeting for Trump walking back his China tariffs.

Come join!

The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (10/16/2025)

Market Flux is the new standard in financial news aggregation, we’re committed to providing you with a complete, real-time view of the financial world.

Our platform aggregates and organizes all relevant market news, helping you stay informed, up-to-date, and knowledgeable without spending hours sifting through headlines.

Reinvented to keep you in control, it's where your edge begins with better information. Go from market noise to clarity in seconds with a real-time platform built to redefine how traders and investors digest financial news.

Visit www.marketflux.io

Here is Your Complete Market Rundown (10/16/2025)

Company News

Salesforce, Inc. (CRM)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  3.97%

5D Change:  0.29%

News Volume:  134

Unusual Volume Factor:  6x

Salesforce Surges on $60 Billion Revenue Target, AI Push Sparks Investor Optimism

Salesforce, the cloud-based software giant, has made headlines with its ambitious revenue forecast and strategic moves in artificial intelligence (AI). The company announced a new revenue target of $60 billion by 2030, sparking a significant jump in its stock price and renewed investor confidence.

Full coverage of $CRM on MarketFlux.io

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  -0.75%

5D Change:  -2.56%

News Volume:  124

Unusual Volume Factor:  1x

Apple Faces AI Talent Loss, Expands China Ties, and Plans Touch-Screen MacBooks in Strategic Pivot

In a flurry of developments, Apple Inc. finds itself at the center of multiple significant events today. The tech giant is facing challenges in retaining top AI talent as another executive from its AI unit departs for Meta, raising concerns about the company's ability to compete in the rapidly evolving AI landscape. This exodus comes at a crucial time, with Apple preparing for a major Siri revamp scheduled for March.

Full coverage of $AAPL on MarketFlux.io

Bank Of America Corporation (BAC)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  -3.54%

5D Change:  1.29%

Bank of America Faces Legal Challenges Amid Strong Earnings and Bold Gold Forecast

Bank of America (BAC) finds itself at the center of multiple significant developments today. The financial giant, along with BNY Mellon, faces a lawsuit over alleged financial ties to Jeffrey Epstein, a development that has sent ripples through the financial sector. Despite this legal challenge, BAC's financial performance has been robust, with the bank reporting solid quarterly results that have bolstered investor confidence.

Full coverage of $BAC on MarketFlux.io

Citigroup Inc. (C)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  -3.51%

5D Change:  0.36%

Citi Faces Premium Card Crisis Amid Market Adjustments and Argentina Loan Talks

Citigroup is facing a significant customer service issue with its premium Strata Elite card. Customers report being locked out of their accounts for weeks, unable to make purchases or redeem rewards despite paying a hefty $595 annual fee. This situation has been ongoing and is causing considerable frustration among cardholders.

Full coverage of $C on MarketFlux.io

Geopolitics Events

Trump Escalates Global Tensions with CIA Operations and Trade War Rhetoric

In a dramatic escalation of tensions between the United States and China, President Donald Trump has authorized covert CIA operations in Venezuela, signaling a more aggressive stance in foreign policy. This move comes amid ongoing trade disputes and heightened rhetoric between the two global powers.

Trump Schedules Call with Putin Prior to Zelensky Meeting

President Trump is set to speak with Russian President Putin on Thursday. This conversation will take place before Trump's scheduled meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky.

Trump Unveils Sweeping Plan to Slash IVF Costs and Expand Fertility Treatment Access

President Trump has unveiled a comprehensive plan to make in vitro fertilization (IVF) more accessible and affordable in the United States. In a White House announcement, Trump revealed several key initiatives aimed at dramatically reducing the costs associated with fertility treatments.

India Balances Energy Needs Amid Trump's Claim of Russian Oil Purchase Halt

President Trump claims India's PM Modi agreed to halt Russian oil purchases, sparking international reactions. India's official response emphasizes consumer priorities and ongoing discussions about diversifying energy sources.

China Blames U.S. Restrictions for Trade Tensions, Calls for Cooperation Amid Decoupling Concerns

Tensions between China and the United States have escalated, with both sides exchanging accusations over trade issues. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Commerce Minister Wang Wentao have blamed U.S. restrictive measures for the recent fluctuations in trade relations. They argue that decoupling is neither a realistic nor rational option.

French Government Survives No-Confidence Vote

French Prime Minister Lecornu survives the first no-confidence vote, with 271 lawmakers voting against the government. This falls short of the 289 votes needed to oust the administration.

Putin Touts Russia's Energy Sector Strength, Kremlin Counters Trump's Oil Persuasion Efforts

President Vladimir Putin addressed Russia's energy sector at Russian Energy Week, emphasizing the country's position as a top oil producer despite "unfair" pressure. Putin highlighted Russia's aim to increase both pipe-gas and LNG exports, projecting oil output of 510 million tons in 2025.

Trump and Putin Hold "Productive" Call, Agree on High-Level Staff Meeting

President Donald Trump has concluded a lengthy and productive telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The White House Press Secretary Leavitt described the call as "good and productive," echoing Trump's own characterization.

Bolton Indicted for Mishandling Classified Information, Becomes Latest Trump Critic to Face Charges

In a shocking development, John Bolton, former national security adviser to President Donald Trump, has been indicted by a grand jury for mishandling classified information. The U.S. Justice Department secured the indictment following an investigation into Bolton's handling of sensitive documents.

Trump and Putin Set to Meet in Budapest, Aim to End Russia-Ukraine War

President Trump announces a significant diplomatic development. Following a lengthy phone call with Russian President Putin, Trump reveals plans for a face-to-face meeting in Budapest, Hungary.

US Treasury Reports Record September Surplus, Slight Improvement in Fiscal Year Deficit

The US Treasury has released its September budget statement, revealing a record-breaking monthly surplus of $198 billion, far exceeding the consensus estimate of $50 billion. This surge is attributed to record-high receipts of $544 billion and outlays of $346 billion for the month.

Trump Threatens US Military Action Against Hamas in Gaza

President Trump issues a stark warning to Hamas. He states that if they continue killing people in Gaza, contrary to an apparent deal, the US will be forced to intervene militarily.

Trump and Putin Hold 'Productive' Phone Call, Agree on High-Level Talks

President Donald Trump has just concluded a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing it as "very productive." The call covered several topics, including trade relations between the United States and Russia, and the recent peace developments in the Middle East.

Senate Rejects Military Funding Bill Amid Ongoing Government Shutdown

The Senate failed to pass a bill to fund the military during the ongoing government shutdown. Democrats blocked the defense spending legislation in a procedural vote, escalating tensions as the shutdown continues.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce Sues Trump Administration Over Massive H-1B Visa Fee Hike

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, challenging the newly imposed $100,000 fee for H-1B visas.

Government Shutdown Intensifies as Bipartisan Tensions Rise and Impacts Widen

The government shutdown, now in its second week, continues to escalate tensions between Democrats and Republicans. House Democrats blocked a Defense spending bill, while Senate Republicans urged President Trump to reopen farm loans. The shutdown is impacting various sectors, including federal law enforcement and farmers awaiting bailout payments.

Government Shutdown Persists: Trump's Involvement Sought as Impacts Widen

As the government shutdown enters its 16th day, pressure mounts for a resolution. House Speaker Mike Johnson addresses the situation, while Senator Kelly emphasizes the need for President Trump's involvement to end the impasse.

Government Shutdown Persists as Farm Aid Hangs in Balance

The government shutdown continues, tying for the fourth-longest in U.S. history. Senate efforts to end the impasse have failed for the tenth time, with Democrats and Trump at odds.

China Officials Slam U.S. Trade Restrictions, Warn Against Decoupling

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Commerce Minister criticize U.S. trade restrictions, blaming them for rising tensions.

US Southern Command Chief to Retire, Pentagon Loses Key Military Leader

The head of the U.S. Military's Southern Command is set to step down, according to officials and the New York Times.

Putin Warns Trump: Tomahawk Missiles to Ukraine Could Damage U.S.-Russia Ties

In a recent conversation, Putin and Trump discussed potential Tomahawk missile deliveries to Ukraine. Putin warned that such deliveries wouldn't alter the battlefield situation but could harm U.S.-Russia relations and impede peace efforts.

U.S. Unveils Rare Earth Strategy to Counter China's Export Restrictions

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announces plans to boost American involvement in rare earth production. This move comes in response to China's tightened export rules, which threaten key sectors like EVs and defense.

Trump Administration Ensures Pay for Select Law Enforcement Amid Shutdown

The Trump administration plans to pay certain federal law enforcement personnel during the ongoing government shutdown.

Appeals Court Maintains Block on Trump's National Guard Deployment to Chicago

A federal appeals court has upheld a block on President Trump's attempt to deploy National Guard troops to Chicago. The court rejected the government's request to pause a judge's order preventing the deployment, which was intended to address protests against Trump's immigration policies.

Trump Touts Deal to Reduce Beef Prices, Claims Broader Price Declines

President Trump announces a deal to lower beef prices for consumers.

Apple Strengthens Ties with China, Pledges Increased Investment

China's Commerce Minister welcomes Apple to deepen cooperation with China. Apple pledges to boost investment in the country.

Energy Secretary Warns of Looming Furloughs for Nuclear Weapons Workers Amid Shutdown

Energy Secretary Chris Wright warns of potential furloughs for thousands of nuclear weapons contractors due to the ongoing government shutdown.

Earnings Events

TSMC Shatters Expectations with Record-Breaking Q3 Earnings, Shares Surge

TSMC, the leading chipmaker, has reported exceptional third-quarter results for 2025, surpassing market expectations. The company's revenue soared to NT$989.92 billion, marking a 30.3% year-on-year increase and a 6% rise from the previous quarter.

Interactive Brokers Beats Q3 Estimates with Strong Revenue and EPS Growth

Interactive Brokers ($IBKR) reports impressive Q3 2025 results, surpassing expectations. The company's adjusted EPS of $0.57 and revenue of $1.66B beat forecasts of $0.53 and $1.52B, respectively.

Macro Events

UK Economy Shows Resilience Amid Mixed August Data, Manufacturing Rebounds

The UK's economic indicators for August 2025 show a mixed picture. Monthly GDP grew by 0.1%, meeting expectations and reversing the previous month's decline. The three-month GDP estimate rose 0.3%, in line with forecasts.

Fed's Waller Signals Potential Rate Cut Amid Labor Market Concerns

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has provided insights into the current economic situation and potential monetary policy actions. In a recent interview, Waller emphasized that the labor market is showing clear signs of weakness, which is a primary concern for the Fed.

UK Economy Inches Forward with 0.1% Growth, Easing Budget Pressure

The UK economy showed marginal growth in August, expanding by 0.1% from July. This slight improvement offers some relief to Finance Minister Rachel Reeves as she prepares for the November budget.

BOJ and Fed Officials Offer Contrasting Views on Global Economy and Tariff Impact

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has provided insights on the global economy and potential monetary policy changes. Ueda stated that while the global economy remains resilient, there is high uncertainty due to complex challenges that could impact medium and long-term growth. He emphasized the need for caution, indicating that the BOJ will tighten monetary policy if the expected economic outlook materializes.

ECB Officials Signal End of Rate Cuts as Economic Data Released

The European Central Bank (ECB) appears to be nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle. ECB's Kocher stated that the bank is at or very close to the end of rate cuts, emphasizing the importance of keeping "powder dry" for potential crises.

AI Dominates Financial Landscape as Fed Grapples with Market Puzzles

Yahoo Finance Invest 2025 is exploring key financial topics, including the AI stock bubble, Trump's tariff policies, Fed challenges, and a resurgent crypto market. The AI sector is dominating headlines, with companies like Credo and ASML playing crucial roles in the industry's growth.

US Budget Deficit Narrows as Tariff Revenue Hits Record High

The US budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 has narrowed slightly to $1.78 trillion, down from $1.82 trillion in 2024. This reduction comes despite historically elevated borrowing during a period of economic expansion and financial stability.

Fed's Barkin: Consumer Spending Remains Strong, But More Constrained Than Pandemic Era

Federal Reserve's Thomas Barkin reports that consumer demand remains solid, particularly among higher-income groups. However, he notes a shift from the pandemic years, with consumers now less flush and more constrained in their spending habits.

Treasury Yields Shift as Traders Hedge Against Potential Bond Market Rally

In today's financial news, PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust offers high yield with lower risk through its baby bonds. The Ineos/Styro complex faced challenges, with bonds down but recovering slightly.

Fed Governor Pushes for Larger Rate Cut, Expects Smaller Reduction

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Miran has called for a bolder interest rate cut amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions. While advocating for a 50 basis point reduction, Miran anticipates the Fed will opt for a more modest 25 basis point cut at the upcoming October 29-30 meeting.

Fed Governor Pushes for Larger Rate Cut Amid Trade Tensions

Fed Governor Christopher Miran addresses the impact of renewed U.S.-China tensions on the economy. He doesn't foresee a recession resulting from these strains but acknowledges growth risks.

ECB Officials Diverge on Inflation Outlook, Rehn Stresses Two-Sided Risks

ECB officials offer differing views on inflation risks. Dolenc sees balanced risks, Wunsch leans towards downside, while Rehn emphasizes two-sided risks.

Central Bankers Warn of Economic Uncertainties and Downside Risks Amid Global Challenges

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda highlights the resilience of the global economy while emphasizing high uncertainty and complex challenges. He notes that tariff impacts are emerging with a lag and geopolitical tensions pose downside risks to medium and long-term growth.

Treasury Yields Plunge as Market Nears Multi-Year Lows

U.S. Treasury yields plummet, with the 10-year yield approaching a 12-month low and falling below 4%.

Fixed Income And Interest Rates Events

Ripple Acquires GTreasury in Billion-Dollar Deal, Expands into Treasury Management

Ripple has acquired GTreasury for $1 billion, marking a significant move into corporate treasury management.

US Treasury Reports Record September Surplus, Slight Improvement in Fiscal Year Deficit

The US Treasury has released its September budget statement, revealing a record-breaking monthly surplus of $198 billion, far exceeding the consensus estimate of $50 billion. This surge is attributed to record-high receipts of $544 billion and outlays of $346 billion for the month.

Treasury Yields Shift as Traders Hedge Against Potential Bond Market Rally

In today's financial news, PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust offers high yield with lower risk through its baby bonds. The Ineos/Styro complex faced challenges, with bonds down but recovering slightly.

Treasury Yields Plunge as Market Nears Multi-Year Lows

U.S. Treasury yields plummet, with the 10-year yield approaching a 12-month low and falling below 4%.

Misc Events

Gold Breaks Records as Trade Tensions and Shutdown Fears Drive Safe-Haven Demand

Gold surges to unprecedented heights, setting new records for four consecutive sessions.

Regional Bank Stocks Tumble as Zions Reports $50M Loss, Dragging Down Major Indexes

Wall Street experienced a volatile day as major indexes slipped, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 dropping to session lows. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all declined, led by losses in financial stocks.

Ray-Ban Maker Sees Surge in Revenue, Driven by Smart Glasses Demand

EssilorLuxottica, the maker of Ray-Ban, reports record-breaking Q3 revenue. The company's success is attributed to booming demand for smart glasses and wearable technology.

EU Unveils Trillion-Euro Defense Plan as France Grapples with Pension Reform Costs

EU Defence Commissioner Kubilius unveiled a massive €6.8 trillion investment plan for European defense by 2035. This ambitious roadmap signifies a substantial commitment to bolstering the continent's military capabilities.

Bipartisan Aviation Safety Bill Emerges Following Recent Air Disasters

Senators on the Commerce Committee have reached a bipartisan agreement on aviation safety legislation. The bill, prompted by a recent deadly midair collision near Washington, aims to enhance safety measures in the aviation industry.

DoorDash and Waymo Roll Out Autonomous Delivery Service, Stocks React

DoorDash and Waymo have partnered to launch an autonomous delivery service in Phoenix.

Stock Markets Events

Regional Bank Woes Trigger Wall Street Sell-Off, Tech Stocks Show Resilience

Wall Street experienced a tumultuous day as concerns over credit quality in regional banks sparked a widespread sell-off. The catalyst was Zions Bancorp, whose charge-off and fraud allegations sent shockwaves through the financial sector. This news, coupled with worries about Western Alliance, raised alarm bells about the health of regional banks.

Stocks Tumble Amid Rising Volatility and Massive Options Expiration

Financial markets face turbulence as stocks extend their fall, led by losses in the financial sector. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, surpasses 25.

Technology Events

TSMC Results Fuel AI Optimism Amid Market Concerns and Diverse Tech Strategies

TSMC's strong results and outlook have bolstered confidence in the AI boom, driving up the company's valuation premium. This development has added fuel to the bullish sentiment surrounding AI stocks. Investors are closely watching TSMC's performance as a barometer for the global chip industry and AI market.

AI Dominates Financial Landscape as Fed Grapples with Market Puzzles

Yahoo Finance Invest 2025 is exploring key financial topics, including the AI stock bubble, Trump's tariff policies, Fed challenges, and a resurgent crypto market. The AI sector is dominating headlines, with companies like Credo and ASML playing crucial roles in the industry's growth.

Snowflake Stock Surges on AI Partnership with Palantir

Snowflake and Palantir have announced a strategic partnership, integrating their AI and data platforms.

Microsoft Rolls Out Major AI Upgrades to Windows 11, Enhancing Copilot Capabilities

Microsoft has unveiled a significant AI-driven update for Windows 11, centered around its Copilot assistant. The upgrade introduces voice activation ("Hey Copilot"), vision tools, and agent-driven tasks accessible on all compatible PCs.

Oracle Forecasts Massive Cloud Revenue Growth, Reports Soaring AI Infrastructure Demand

Oracle executives project substantial growth in cloud infrastructure revenue, expecting it to reach $166 billion by fiscal year 2030.

Chip Stocks Surge as TSMC's AI Outlook Sparks Market Rally

TSMC's positive outlook on AI demand boosts chip stocks and US markets.

Oracle Reports Explosive Growth in AI Infrastructure, Projects Massive Cloud Revenue

Oracle's AI infrastructure segment is booming, with 117% year-over-year growth in Q1 FY2026. The company's Co-CEO reports non-GAAP gross margins of 30-40% in this rapidly expanding business area.

Real Estate Events

US Mortgage Rates Fall Again, Boosting Refinancing Activity

Mortgage rates in the US have decreased for the second consecutive week, edging closer to a 2025 low. The average long-term rate now stands at 6.27%.

Homebuilder Sentiment Surges Unexpectedly, but Economic Uncertainty Lingers

U.S. homebuilder sentiment surged in October, reaching its highest level since April. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index climbed to 37, up from 32 in September and surpassing economist expectations of 33.

Crypto Events

Bitcoin Plunges Below $109K as Trade Tensions Rattle Markets and Trigger Mass Liquidations

Bitcoin's price struggles, dropping below $109,000 from its recent $126,000 peak. The decline triggers $524M in crypto liquidations.

a16z Crypto Injects $50M into Solana's Jito, Boosting SOL Outlook

Andreessen Horowitz's crypto arm, a16z, invests $50 million in Solana's staking protocol Jito through a private token sale.

Oil And Gas Events

US Crude Oil Inventories Surge Unexpectedly, Defying Market Forecasts

The latest EIA report reveals unexpected shifts in US oil inventories. Crude oil stocks surged by 3.524 million barrels, defying expectations of a decline. This increase contributed to a total rise of 4.284 million barrels in US crude inventories.

Indian Refiners Adjust Oil Import Strategy Amid US Pressure on Russian Crude

Indian refiners are preparing to reduce Russian oil imports following unexpected comments from President Trump. The move comes as the US pressures India to stop buying Russian crude to help end the Ukraine conflict.

India Warns of Oil Price Surge if Russian Purchases Halt, Suggests U.S. as Alternative

An Indian government source warns that if India and China cease purchasing Russian oil, global oil prices would surge, causing market volatility.

India Slashes Russian Oil Imports After Talks with US

India has agreed to reduce its Russian oil imports by 50% following productive discussions with the US, according to a White House official.

Oil Market Puzzled by IEA Surplus Forecast as Prices Rebound on Supply Concerns

The International Energy Agency's forecast of a record oil surplus has sparked confusion in the market. Traders are questioning the location of oil barrels amid predictions of oversupply by 2026.

Environment Events

U.S. Regulators Scrap Climate Risk Rules for Banks

U.S. banking regulators have withdrawn climate-related financial risk principles for large banks.

DeFi Users, here are 10 can't miss DeFi updates you need to know about:

• Solana ETF deadline is today
• Coinbase DEX goes trading live
• Weekend $19B liquidation event
• AND so much more

Let's dive in: 🧵

1/ Largest liquidation event in crypto history

1.6 million traders liquidated with $19 billion in positions wiped.

9x the previous record - unprecedented market volatility.

Source

2/ Coinbase launches DEX trading for all US users (ex. NY)

Trade millions of assets after launch directly in Coinbase's app.

Integrated with 1inch and 0x liquidity pools.

Source

3/ Solana ETF decision deadline today - October 16th

All eyes on whether government shutdown will delay decision again.

The SOL ETF could bring billions of inflows into Solana DeFi.

Source

4/ Morgan Stanley allows all clients to buy crypto

All clients can buy crypto in any account, including retirement.

Suggests a maximum of 4% of your portfolio allocated to crypto.

Source

5/ Europe's largest asset manager Amundi to launch Bitcoin ETF

With $2.6T Assets Under Management, the firm is offering crypto to customers for the first time.

Source

6/ Square enables Bitcoin payments for all merchants

Stack bitcoin automatically from daily sales behind the scenes.

Bitcoin Payments live for everyone November 10th.

Source

7/ @MeteoraAG checker goes live today

First airdrop claimable directly via liquidity pool - making DeFi history.

Revolutionary distribution model for token airdrops.

Source

8/ Aave generates highest daily fees ever

$16.23 million in fees during October 11th liquidation event.

Mass liquidations driving record protocol revenue.

Source

9/ Kamino adds Solesticefi's $eUSX as collateral

Delta-neutral stablecoin yielding ~8% APY now composable on Kamino.

Users can borrow, loop, and earn Flares on $USX and $eUSX positions.

Source

10/ JupiterExchange Wallet hits 10,000 users in under a week

DeFi positions coming soon powered by Jupiter Portfolio.

Another improvement in DeFi transparency.

Source

That's it for this week's DeFi breakdown.

I share the latest DeFi and AI news every week if you are interested in more, just let me know!

What DeFi News updates/releases are your favorite?

Nice read 👍

Overview of the Companies and Their Interconnections The three companies you mentioned—Scilex Holding Company (SCLX), Datavault AI Inc. (DVLT), and Semnur Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SMNR)—are publicly traded and interconnected through ownership, investments, and a pending dividend structure. Here’s a brief review based on current data as of October 16, 2025:

• SCLX (Scilex Holding Company): A pharmaceutical company focused on non-opioid pain management products. Current stock price: $13.40. Market cap: ~$99M. Shares outstanding: ~7.4M (basic).

• SMNR (Semnur Pharmaceuticals, Inc.): A biotech company developing non-opioid treatments for back pain, with its lead candidate SP-102 (SEMDEXA™) having estimated peak annual sales potential of $3.6B in its 5th year post-launch (per independent research). It became public via a SPAC merger with Denali Capital Acquisition Corp. on September 22, 2025, and trades on OTC Markets. SCLX owns approximately 87% of SMNR. Current stock price: $9.00. Market cap: ~$2.07B. Shares outstanding: ~230M (implied from market cap and price).

• DVLT (Datavault AI Inc.): An AI-driven data management company. On September 25, 2025, SCLX made a $150M strategic investment in DVLT via a securities purchase agreement, with the initial tranche closed (SCLX received 15M DVLT shares, worth ~$27M at current prices, paid partly in Bitcoin). This represents about 8% ownership in DVLT. Current stock price: $1.82. Market cap: ~$340M. Shares outstanding: ~187M (implied from market cap and price). These companies are linked primarily through SCLX: It majority-owns SMNR and has invested significantly in DVLT (the $150M investment exceeds SCLX’s own market cap, suggesting SCLX may be using cash reserves or other assets). The DVLT investment appears aimed at leveraging AI for pharma applications, but no direct operational ties to the dividend are evident.

The Preferred Stock Dividend Situation The key event tying SCLX and SMNR is a proposed stock dividend from SCLX, initially announced in 2024. It involves distributing 5,000,000 shares of Series 1 Mandatory Exchangeable Preferred Stock (par value $0.0001) pro-rata to SCLX shareholders and certain securityholders. The preferred shares are automatically exchangeable for a pro-rata portion of the lesser of:

• 10% of SCLX’s ownership interest in SMNR (currently ~8.7% of SMNR overall, valued at ~$180M based on SMNR’s $2.07B market cap), or • $200M divided by SMNR’s closing price 10 trading days prior to the determination date (the earlier of the SPAC merger effective time or SEC registration effectiveness).

The exchange would result in freely tradable SMNR common stock upon completion. The dividend was conditioned on the SMNR SPAC merger (which closed on September 22, 2025), but the record date has been repeatedly deferred: • Original: November 7, 2024. • Changed to January 28, 2025, then April 11, 2025, then May 2, 2025. •
As of June 23, 2025, the record date was deferred indefinitely, with no new date set. The board retains discretion to set a new date, change terms, or revoke the dividend (e.g., due to solvency concerns or material changes). No reasons for deferrals were explicitly stated in announcements, but they may relate to regulatory, financial, or market conditions (e.g., SMNR’s OTC status and low trading volume of ~62 shares average daily). The dividend remains “expected” but uncertain, as it’s tied to board approval and could unlock ~$180M in value for SCLX shareholders (~$24 per SCLX share based on current shares outstanding and SMNR valuation). However, market pricing suggests skepticism, as SCLX’s price hasn’t fully reflected this potential value. DVLT is not directly involved in this dividend.

Expected Earnings (EPS and Revenue Estimates) Based on analyst consensus (limited coverage: 1 analyst each for SCLX and DVLT; none for SMNR), here are the expected earnings per share (EPS) and revenue for 2025 (current year) and 2026 (next year). All figures in USD; growth projections compare to prior year actuals. Note: These are forward-looking and subject to high uncertainty in biotech/AI sectors.

• SCLX: • 2025 EPS: -$3.51 (from 1 analyst; year-ago: -$15.65). • 2026 EPS: $3.11 (year-over-year growth: +188.6%). • 2025 Revenue: $105M (growth: +85.6% from $56.6M year-ago). • 2026 Revenue: $319M (growth: +204% year-over-year). • Quarterly: Q3 2025 EPS -$0.41 (growth: +70%); Q4 2025 EPS +$0.07 (growth: +103%). • DVLT: • 2025 EPS: -$0.44 (from 1 analyst; year-ago: -$5.31). • 2026 EPS: -$0.39 (year-over-year growth: not meaningful, as losses narrow). • 2025 Revenue: $14M (growth: +424% from $2.7M year-ago). • 2026 Revenue: $45M (growth: +221% year-over-year). • Quarterly: Q3 2025 EPS -$0.07 (growth: +95%); Q4 2025 EPS -$0.07 (growth: -110%). • SMNR: • No analyst EPS or revenue estimates available, as coverage hasn’t started post-merger. As a pre-revenue biotech, it’s likely reporting losses while advancing SP-102 through FDA approval (Phase 3 data expected to support NDA filing).

These estimates factor in operational growth but may not fully incorporate the dividend’s potential impact (e.g., SCLX’s 2026 profitability projection could be boosted if the SMNR stake distribution unlocks value or reduces balance sheet strain). Expected Price Per Share Based on Evaluation Expected stock prices are derived from analyst price targets (where available) and my evaluation of the dividend situation, company interconnections, and market dynamics. Targets represent 12-month forecasts. Note: Biotech stocks like these are volatile, influenced by regulatory risks (e.g., FDA approvals for SCLX/SMNR products), the DVLT investment’s execution, and the dividend’s resolution. The deferred dividend adds uncertainty but could act as a catalyst if executed, potentially adding $20-25 per share to SCLX’s value (based on ~$180M total dividend value divided by ~7.4M shares). Current prices already partially discount operations but not the full dividend upside due to delays.

• SCLX: Analyst consensus target: $14.00 (from TipRanks, based on recent ratings; implies ~4% upside from $13.40 current). Other sources show inflated targets ($350+), likely unadjusted for past reverse splits—I’ve disregarded them. Evaluation: If the dividend proceeds, intrinsic value could rise to $35-40 (current price + ~$24 dividend value), but deferral risks keep near-term expectations modest. Strong 2026 EPS turnaround supports moderate growth.

• DVLT: Analyst consensus target: $3.00 (from 1 analyst, “Strong Buy”; implies ~65% upside from $1.82 current). Evaluation: The $150M SCLX investment provides capital for AI expansion, potentially accelerating revenue growth. If integration with SCLX’s pharma ops yields synergies, price could exceed $3; otherwise, persistent losses cap it near $2.50-3.50.

• SMNR: No analyst targets available (newly public with minimal coverage). Evaluation: Current $9.00 price reflects $2.5B pre-merger valuation, but low volume and OTC status suggest illiquidity. If SP-102 advances (e.g., FDA approval), price could reach $15-20 based on $3.6B peak sales potential; however, as a pre-revenue company, downside risk to $5-7 if delays occur. The SCLX dividend, if issued, could increase trading interest in SMNR. In summary, the dividend remains a key wildcard —its issuance could significantly boost SCLX and indirectly support SMNR, while DVLT benefits from SCLX’s funding. Monitor SCLX announcements for dividend updates, as resolution could drive re-ratings. These are not investment advice; consult financial sources for real-time data.