Tuesday, March 31, 2020

/r/slatestarcodex - "How would you Optimize your Life if you Woke up Back at 14, Knowing Everything you Knew Today?"

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Submission How would you Optimize your Life if you Woke up Back at 14, Knowing Everything you Knew Today?
Comments How would you Optimize your Life if you Woke up Back at 14, Knowing Everything you Knew Today?
Author Veqq
Subreddit /r/slatestarcodex
Posted On Wed Apr 01 02:07:58 UTC 2020
Score 22 as of Wed Apr 01 05:38:07 UTC 2020
Total Comments 49

Post Body:

I.e how could you better reach and change your current goals, network, learn, pick/avoid college, get a job/start a company etc. etc.

Would you start paraphrasing/rewriting interesting ideas, academic papers etc. asap? Post about future events to gain a forecaster reputation? Avoid some mistake with your first love? Start selling candy in school, then drop out at 16 to work at McDonald to invest in real estate, short the 2008 market, then invest in bitcoin? Then what?

What would your telos be?


Let's keep any boring gotchas out of the way:

1) A wizard did it, you can trust the dates of big events, time the 2008 crash (as accurately as you know the exact dates right now)

2) Everyone and everything else are the same at the start. You can avoid people who betrayed you the first time around, but as you influence your social circles, things will start changing. (Presumably not impacting major events)

Related Comments (3):

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Author Extra_Negotiation
Posted On Wed Apr 01 05:32:01 UTC 2020
Score 1 as of Wed Apr 01 05:38:07 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 0
Body link

yooooo r/exmormon, r/exjw over here!

Totally agree on the friends forged in the fires of hell, I have one good friend from that unholy experience. I also have one good frenemy (who decided to go way hard on the 'not a jw' route and just basically steal and lie and blame a whole lot of people - myself included).

I'd still take the frenemy to have the friend, but god-damn, I'd probably sit through all those meetings and all that crap all over again, I guess...

jeez, the things we value and what we're willing to go through!


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Author Extra_Negotiation
Posted On Wed Apr 01 02:46:30 UTC 2020
Score 1 as of Wed Apr 01 05:38:07 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 7
Body link

To keep it simple, and not make for some kind of God-mode version of myself here (which is too easy, just on crypto alone you could get any material desire, with the right timing):

  • I spent too much time trying to impress/fit in with groups of people who ultimately more or less rejected me, or who I grew bored with. When I was this age, I had met a few people who still had all their high school friends, who were in their late 20's - and I thought that was *what the cool/popular* people were able to do. I have acquaintances who still have this, and it does make me jealous, but it's just not happening for me. It's not my life.
  • I wish I had tried harder in school - not in the teacher-pleaser way, but in the way that could have substantially saved me a great deal of trouble in my early 20s.
  • I wish I had left the cult I was in (r/exjw) quite a bit earlier, right off the bat ideally. This group really fucked with my mind, and I had to spend years deprogramming, unfucking, and rebuilding/discovering myself. I may never finish.
  • Somewhere along the way, perhaps earlier than 14, I learned this whole mental model of "you're good at x, you're so smart!" which made me want to rely on the things I picked up easily, rather than develop a strong work ethic "look at how hard you worked on this! how far you've come!". For any of you parents out there, please look into a growth mindset, and how to encourage your kids to discover things for themselves (asking questions instead of telling! etc.). I wish I could of had more than this, but who am I kidding - I was being raise by people who think JW's are the cats meow.
  • I would have spent more time working on my body, and doing more disciplined exercises. I'm not in terrible shape now, but it's a huge hill to climb to the kind of fitness I see some of my friends pulling off (hiking big mountains and stuff). I wish I could do that stuff.
  • I would have taken more chances with girls and with things in general. I've always been super underconfident, and always *shocked faced* whenever an attractive, smart, driven woman wanted to spend time with me. I've been with my current partner for five years and I still feel like there must be some trick or misunderstanding - she's just way too beautiful and 'generally good human' for me.
  • There were a few times I wish I said no, full stop, but a lot more times I wish I made a request, or asked for more of the same.
  • I would have doubled down on computers - I was really good at it at 7,8,9,10 ish - then it wasn't cool, so I got into consoles and other crap, and never really full came back around. Even though I enjoyed it and have spent a significant amount of my life on machines, I've never really felt like I understood what was going on, never mind being in a position to contribute positively.

The reason I'm playing isn't to indulge in some fantasy (which is super fun and I encourage it), but rather to use this prompt as a sort of generative system to make better choices in the next ~20 years of my life.


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Author Veqq
Posted On Wed Apr 01 03:11:26 UTC 2020
Score 1 as of Wed Apr 01 05:38:07 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 2
Body link

I wish I could of had more than this, but who am I kidding - I was being raise by people who think JW's are the cats meow.

What's your relationship with your family like? At risk of putting it really badly, I feel like my family are pets I have to take care of but can't really interact with - like a bitey turtle. I recently bought my mom a house and she's still not used to not paying rent. For the past few days she's been crying about money, scared that she won't be able to pay her bills on time... At the same time, I had to fight with her to not drop her whole paycheck on a boat. (The snow has melted, but we're in a damned quarantine!) She can't even prioritize rent before... a boat.

to use this prompt as a sort of generative system to make better choices in the next ~20 years of my life.

Same. I've been struggling with direction for a while. I really enjoyed working on this question when I thought about it (optimizing for money, for relationships, for influence etc.) but actually... I'm not sure what to optimize my life for , what criteria to use.

Eliminating all evil (a la Harry Potter and his rational instruments or... My favorite character in Unsong was Mr. Ziggarat, so...) seems a bit too difficult.


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How would you Optimize your Life if you Woke up Back at 14, Knowing Everything you Knew Today?

I.e how could you better reach and change your current goals, network, learn, pick/avoid college, get a job/start a company etc. etc.

Would you start paraphrasing/rewriting interesting ideas, academic papers etc. asap? Post about future events to gain a forecaster reputation? Avoid some mistake with your first love? Start selling candy in school, then drop out at 16 to work at McDonald to invest in real estate, short the 2008 market, then invest in bitcoin? Then what?

What would your telos be?


Let's keep any boring gotchas out of the way:

1) A wizard did it, you can trust the dates of big events, time the 2008 crash (as accurately as you know the exact dates right now)

2) Everyone and everything else are the same at the start. You can avoid people who betrayed you the first time around, but as you influence your social circles, things will start changing. (Presumably not impacting major events)


Bitcoin vs Gold

With central banks around the world debasing their currencies by printing money out of thin air, I have been giving increasingly more thought on converting my assets into hard money. The debate that rages on in my head is which is the superior hard money. Gold, the standard for hard money that has withstood the test of time over millennia, or Bitcoin, the world’s first decentralized cryptocurrency. Here are my thoughts.

Intrinsic Value

Gold is often toted as being superior to Bitcoin because gold, unlike Bitcoin, has intrinsic value as a commodity. That is, there is gold demand for purposes outside the functions of money. Gold is used in a variety of industries such as dentistry, electronic hardware, aerospace, jewelry, glass-making and more. This means that gold will have value whether or not gold is being used as money. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has no intrinsic value. If people do not accept Bitcoin’s monetary functions then it has no value.

However, if we accept Bitcoin as money, then the fact that it has no intrinsic value is a significant positive. A money founded on something of intrinsic value will always be subject to supply shocks. For example, imagine that demand for gold has been increasing steadily as the aerospace industry expands and gobbles up more gold. Then one day, our brilliant scientists come up with an alloy that renders the functions of gold in aerospace obsolete. The value of gold begins to drop rapidly as we no longer buy gold for aerospace and begin to melt down the existing gold components. The value of gold will always fluctuate based on the demand for its monetary and intrinsic properties. Bitcoin has the luxury of not being subject to intrinsic volatility.

In summary, I have some fear of people abandoning Bitcoin as money and as it has no intrinsic value, I could end up with nothing. However, the fact that it has no intrinsic value means that Bitcoin is resistant to supply shocks, making it a superior money with little chance of the demand dropping to zero.

Confiscation

To me, the threat of confiscation is a real one. The United States, Great Britain and Australia have all passed legislation in the past forbidding the ownership of gold. Citizens were required to exchange their gold for government paper. In the United States, failure to comply could have netted you a 10 year prison sentence.

Today private ownership of gold is allowed, but I am not positive this will remain the case. The political climate is becoming dangerous. The wealthy (and wealth creation itself) are increasingly demonized and cries for socialism and wealth distribution are growing ever louder. This coupled with an imminent economic collapse make ripe conditions to destroy wealth, through both inflation and confiscation.

Already I have concerns. If I convert my savings into gold and try to fly from China to the United States, will the government harass me or potentially even confiscate my gold holdings in the future? Even now, the US Customs and Border Protection state that I have to declare currency and monetary instruments in excess of $10,000, failure to do so may result in seizure. With Bitcoin I have no concern. No government can go through my bags and find Bitcoin to confiscate. As far as my understanding of Bitcoin goes, there is no, or very very little, risk of confiscation. Please correct me here if I am wrong.

Divisibility & Distribution

In terms of divisibility and ease of transfer, there is no debate that Bitcoin is infinitely superior. I am looking into making my first purchase of gold and damn is it a pain in the ass. If I wish to purchase it online at a place such as Schiff Gold, I would need a couple of months, at least, before I could hold my tiny gold bar. They suggest that I store any gold I purchase in their Singapore vault, but then I don’t feel like it is truly my gold and would have to pay storage fees. If I wish to purchase it here in China, I need to set up an appointment at a bank, and as much as I love China, I hate the idea of handing over my info to state run banks to make a gold purchase. Also I’m confined to purchasing units of 10g, 20g, 50g, 100g, 1kg. There is no easy way for me to purchase a value amount that is perfectly suitable for me.

All this being said, to me gold has one large advantage and that is its history and global distribution. Central banks around the world have massive gold reserves and it is common for everyday citizens to hold a little gold in wedding bands and other jewelry. Everybody knows and understands gold has value. It may be quite sometime before Bitcoin can achieve the same status. Already countries such as Russia and China have been increasing their gold reserves, undoubtedly preparing for an event where fiat money collapses and the world goes back to a hard money standard. Clearly the bet of these governments is a gold standard. And why not? It is what the world used for thousands of years and governments around the world already have large gold reserves.

At the end of the day, I still choose Bitcoin. I choose Bitcoin because I believe the power of the people will always be greater than the power of the government. Governments can try to maintain power by going back to a gold standard and confiscating the gold of citizens, but if people choose Bitcoin over gold, then it will not matter. Money and power will have become truly decentralized.


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