Monday, February 8, 2021

The one pole town and the violent boneless ribs

In the Scam Home Warranty business, the people are represented by two separate but equally lazy groups: The Authorization agents, who deny claims and smoke like chimneys, and the technicians who lie through their teeth to snag a few extra bucks. These are their stories CLICK CLICK

(background) Do you have a friend that's really into survivalism, living off the grid or sovereign citizenship? If the last is correct, that's not a friend it's some kind of corporation and they're in the middle of contesting their social security in an admiralty court /s. There are a lot of signs of someone who refuses to abide by the rules of society and one is theft. For example: they refuse to get a phone so they can't track them but they're messaging you from their XBox, they think gas is a scam yet they have a propane grill. Here's a story about one these customers.

Those $1 banquet frozen dinners are getting smaller by the year or maybe I'm just imagining things. In any event, their boneless rib dinners are second only to the Swedish Meatballs in terms of being anything approaching a meal.

One morning I walk into work like normal, about a half hour early with a bag from Shoprite as the dollar store isn't open that early and I didn't feel like picking through whatever overpriced trash QuickChek has in their frozen food section. We have a couple in the breakroom so using 2 microwaves to cook my breakfast twice as fast is my plan. Unfortunately one is weaker than an excuse not to drink on New Year's Eve and it takes a couple minutes to get my frozen breakfast ribs into edible temperature.

During this time I run back to my department to relinquish the rest of my shopping trip into my desk and just login for a quick second to see how many chances I'll have to get fired this morning, 2 if you're curious - both marked 'high priority' by my bosses' boss.

By the time I return to the microwave it is making evil sounds as its uneven cooking has caused part of the plastic wrap to explode, despite having holes in it.

I'll spare you the details but by the time my phone started ringing, I was still using a clorox wet wipe to clean that damn thing for the first time in longer than anyone would care to admit. Somebody was nice enough to text me that reason number 3 this could be my last day was going off on my line and I needed to get back in my chair.

About an hour later I caught my breath and have eaten exactly 2 bites of now tepid boneless ribs and my boss has arrived with murder on his mind, but I think he wakes up every day like that.

A thorough dressing-down later that would make a college dropout in Marine bootcamp cry I was on my phone with a very upset technician in that part of Alabama that still thinks they won the Civil War.

Me: "Ok slow down, what claim are we looking at?"

Tech: "#."

Me: "So this is an electrical claim right? Are you at the house?"

Tech: "Yeah and it's a mess."

Me: "Tell me about it."

Tech: "Can you look at the customer's profile and just tell me what the hell is going on with this guy?"

I pull open the profile and see a lot of red flags, which are replicated on the SWO which only made me pity whoever had to push the claim through in CS.

A. The guy's name is "Citizen" "American." (not exactly that but I don't want to DOX anyone).

B. Phone number is clearly fake

C. Full year paid by check but a flag from accounting saying they have to 'verify' some info on it (that's not gonna happen)

D. Address is "by X on Y st" (which shouldn't even be possible but I guess the system allows it as there could be an apartment number in the prefix or whatever)

E. Optional coverage for 2 pools, a well pump, septic system and irrigation (look I know whatever sales guy was too busy salivating on all those add-ons to care but that isn't possible, you can't have all those utilities at once it makes no sense)

F. Email is @AOL (ok that one's kind of normal.....)

Me: "So looks like this is a fake account."

Tech: "Unassign me from the claim."

Me: "Done but can you give me anything approaching a diagnosis? Just something solid to run with when this hits CS or retention and I can, you know, play around with the claim so the reassign won't hurt you with dispatch."

Tech: "Guy is stealing electricity from the utility. You can see the feed on the telephone pole in the street, which is so small it's got like 4 lines running for the entire town which might be illegal these days but out here in the country inspectors stopped coming around in the 70s. So his breaker melted and he wanted me to lie about it, pretend it's not half slag and clearly homemade."

Me: "Ok I'll kill it from here."

Tech: "Am I gonna get paid for this? He tried paying the SCF in some bullshit currency that he clearly printed himself and went on and on about bitcoin or something."

Me: "I'll task vendor relations to override the claim with an exception payment, explaining the issue from auth's perspective."

Tech: "Good, I'm going to tell my boss what happened and hopefully it's all sorted out on both our ends by then."

Me: "Ok, have a good one."

tasked to customer service: call customer and inform not a covered claim, the fuse box has failed due to power surge per C8 that is excluded.

internal auth note to not read: customer is stealing electricity, illegal hookup melted the fuse box

Epilogue: I think he tried to sue us but you need a real name to go to court and pretending to be a lawyer (based on very confused notes from retention) didn't help. At least the AG Complaint was incoherent enough that it was dismissed.


Weekly Bitcoin / Ethereum Options Trading Series #3

Greetings,

I will be continuing a weekly series that I've started months ago in separate options trading subs however I think this subreddit is the most appropriate and relevant for what I've been doing for the last couple of years. Here is my post 2 weeks ago (sorry last weekend was a bit busy) that got a decent amount of interest from fellow crypto traders. For some context, I've been bullish on Bitcoin since the March equities crash in March of 2020 and have been involved since 2014. I expect to remain bullish throughout 2021 as 2020 is the halving year for Bitcoin and in historical cycles the supply shock from the reduced amount of Bitcoin causes rapid and parabolic price appreciation in the year after the halving. Combine this with the fact that central banks around the world are printing trillions of dollars we have ourselves a great recipe for success for some juicy Bitcoin profits. To add, one more bullish indicator has been the level of institutional investment that has been a landmark achievement in the waiting for many years.

Summary: The week of 2/1/21-2/6/21 is the inflection point from our January corrective period for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. It goes without saying but January was bloody for most asset classes except for GME. Look at the equities markets snapshot below for reference. Source. I feel like January was the "reset" period and the first week of February was the inflection point for the bull run to continue. I believe it will take a black swan or some earth shattering event for Bitcoin to dip below 29k and Ethereum below 1.1k.

The sell off in Jan 2021 was as big as March 2020

Bitcoin

First, I'll start off with big picture. Look at the supply of BTC held on exchange wallets - this is the available supply of BTC available for trading across all major exchanges. It's been on a sharp decline with the slope declining fastest in Summer 2020 and subtly flattening out but still declining nonetheless throughout Fall and Winter of 2020. I would like us to continue this trend, and perhaps have the slope intensify signaling a more rapid "HODLer" investor sentiment.

BTC Supply On Exchanges is about 2.34mm

There are other on chain indicators that I'd like to see kick up again in order for us to experience what happened in the Fall of 2020 for Bitcoin. In particular, institutional purchases based in the United States done through Coinbase Custody. As of now, outflows (withdrawals) from Coinbase Pro, are not at the levels we were at in Fall of 2020 when Bitcoin was rising rapidly week over week.

Institutional investors need to ramp up their purchases again, right now it's small

As for my options positions, I'm beginning to take small long positions. See below. I have a calendar spread for March, June and September expiration with strikes: 40k 48k, 52k and 56k. I'm also short puts for 2/12 expiry and have a YOLO long call open for 44k 2/12. I'm not full force yet until Bitcoin clears previous ATH. One more bullish indicator is that SOPR looks to be fully reset and on the way for the next leg up. If you're not sure what that is, I made 1 min video here.

Unrealized PnL: +$10.4k

Ethereum

The most bullish signal for Ethereum has been the reopening of Grayscale's ETHE trust. As most of you know, it was closed early in December. ETHE is literally what the SEC tells institutions to invest in if they want exposure to Ethereum... this is extremely important and I cannot stress that enough. Imagine how powerful of a directive that is, when the United States SEC is informing institutions to buy ETHE when they are trying to get exposure to Ethereum.. Since re-opening Grayscale added approximately 104k Ethereum to their ETHE trust.

Notice the flat line in holdings starting beginning of Dec 2020

This time for my options profits, actually took profits. Most of you know in my last post I had a 31k PnL for Ethereum which melted to 5k from my last post. Not this time! I actually took about 3.5k of profits so far and 29.9k unrealized in long call positions. My short put positions totaled about $362 in realized profits. Notice the expirations on these positions... I think I will be HODLing these long calls until I see something drastic. As of writing this post, I actually re-bought the June 1600 calls after this past weekend dip. I will be continuing my bullish perspective on Ethereum until we dip below 1300-1400 range.

https://preview.redd.it/p0nkuoxyu8g61.png?width=654&format=png&auto=webp&s=1701fab5db7e1b066a2d89e2c0acd5aba1f04be9

In order for us to continue for Ethereum, I would like to see more institutional investment, that would really drive the price upwards. 1700 was clearly a profit taking level, I will also be looking to trim some positions at 1800, 1900, and 2000. My original thesis was that Ethereum could hit 1600 in Q1 2021, my revised thesis is that we can hit 2000 within Q1 2021.

Happy heisting.


Microstrategy CEO Michael Saylor and others are using their influence to spread lies about Bitcoin at the expense of other CEOs and retail buyers. The distinction between consensus based supply and truly fixed supply is where the fraud happens.

Michael Saylor, founder of Microstrategy and an MIT alumni, has been aggressively promoting Lyn Alden's BTC bullish thesis which can be summarized as follows:

  1. Bitcoin has a supply cap of 21M coins
  2. Bitcoin has an advantage over other cryptocurrencies because of its network effect

These 2 properties, according to Lyn, will help BTC perform like digital gold the quantitatively eased covid world. The first statement, however, is inaccurate in the sense that Bitcoin does not have a supply cap and is not scarce in the same way as silver and gold are. Bitcoin's scarcity/supply cap is defined via a consensus similar to the one that regulates the supply of fiat currencies, that is a consensus that can be changed or can be manipulated. Whether by sheer ignorance, or tacit collusion, the promoters of this thesis should/may one day be held accountable in court for spreading a lie in order to lure in buyers at progressively higher prices.

Why BTC does NOT have a supply cap

Supply in Bitcoin is regulated by an algorithm that limits the amount of new coins issued and defines the rules by which these newly minted coins are distributed. To mine a coin in BTC a miner has to solve a puzzle after which the blockchain is updated to increase the balance of his address by 1 unit. This would be a mined coin, since it did not come from another address through an incoming transaction.

According to today's algorithm there cannot be more than 21 million coins, and the amount of coins minted for every puzzle solved (which corresponds to block found in bitcoin lingo), is 12.5. This is known as the block reward. According to the same algorithm the block reward is supposed to halve every 4 years.

It is important to emphasize here that we are speaking of an algorithm, not a natural law. Such algorithm (which is part of bitcoin's protocol) is used by today's BTC miners. This algorithm seems to be sufficient for Michael Saylor (and Lyn Alden) to promote Bitcoin as a currency with limited supply and capable of fulfilling its role as digital gold. However, it is not.

Michael Saylor is a billionaire engineer, who seems to have a deep knowledge of the bitcoin community. At the same time, he seems to not be able to tell the difference between a natural supply cap and a supply cap set by social (or decentralized) consensus. It is exactly by glossing over such distinction that newcomers are lured to believe that BTC's supply is set in stone, and invest/buy as if BTC's supply is set in stone, when in fact that's not the case.

A natural supply cap is independent of political or social consensus. Even if the most powerful/influential leaders, policymakers, scholars, economists, engineers and so on of the world came together and agreed that there needed to be more silver on Earth, there is nothing they could do to change the total amount of silver. They could not because silver's supply is fixed.

A supply cap set via consensus, on the other hand, can be lifted or modified if the underlying consensus changes or is manipulated. This is the case of fiat currencies, where we have seen the consensus shift towards accommodative monetary policies that were unthinkable 4-5 decades ago. And this is also the case with Bitcoin, the only difference between Bitcoin and fiat currencies is that today's consensus in Bitcoin veers towards sticking to the original 21M supply. While it is true that bitcoin's supply is defined by an algorithm, this algorithm can be changed. Therefore Bitcoin is not scarce, at least not in the same way as precious metals like gold and silver whose supply is independent of any form of consensus.

Consensus shifts in Bitcoin's 10 year history

In Bitcoin's history there have already been instances of changes in consensus that have impacted its properties. For example in its early years Bitcoin was defined as digital peer to peer cash because it could be used as peer to peer cash, thanks to subcent fees, even for micro payments. But as adoption picked up, transaction fees increased and BTC's performance as cash deteriorated. The general consensus then started to favor digital gold over peer to peer cash. As this transition occurred, the community split in two camps that would clash with each other for years to come trying to reaffirm their own view as the consensus view. In this fight for consensus each side resorted, among others, to censorship, ad hominem attacks and industrial scale DDOS attacks in a proper cyberwar fashion. In the end small blockers (proponents of Bitcoin as digital gold) prevailed, while big blockers forked into BCH. This series of events matters because it proves that the same thing can/will happen one day with bitcoin's supply. Today the camp let's increase supply already counts some prominent BTC figures, like ex Bitcoin Core developer Peter Todd.

Conclusion

There is no difference between BTC and fiat currencies like the US dollar technically speaking. The only difference is who is in charge, in BTC it is the Bitcoin Core developers while in the case of a fiat currency it is a central bank. Right now consensus in BTC is that the cap should stay at 21M. But if this consensus changes, then just like with fiat currencies, a lot of retail buyers who used BTC as digital gold would have to passively accept the change. This risk is what distinguishes a fixed supply currency from an inflationary currency. Not the consensus in a particular point in time.


Funny to me... Tesla Pumps $1.5B into bitcoin. Bitcoin is up 11.02% for the day. Everyone goes crazy. No big news for Doge.... Up 10.5% without a major event

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Sunday, February 7, 2021

Over 1400 international firms join MicroStrategy's CEO Michael Saylor’s webinar, dedicated to Bitcoin's investment. Read more about this Bitcoin evangelist event here:

https://overb.it/XPmDnI

Tax Question (USA)

I have a question for a friend who got involved with crypto a few years ago but completely ignored my advice on keeping track and logging taxable events.

As it stands now, he holds only Bitcoin but a pretty nice stash (well into double digits). He is talking about retiring if the price does what many of us think it will, and I finally confronted him on taxes. As it turns out, he bought most of his Bitcoin on Coinbase and Gemini a few years ago, along with some Litecoin and Ether. He traded the Litecoin and Ether in 2018 for Bitcoin using ShapeShift or Changely or some other service like that. He didn't keep track of it and did not report the trades on his taxes. He says he didn't have to because the price of the LTC and ETH were lower when he traded them than what he bought them for.

So the problem is that now he has several Bitcoin in his Ledger wallet that he cannot associate with a buy on Coinbase. Most of his Bitcoin he can associate with lots for tax reporting, but there are a few left over due to the trades that he did. He is finally starting to plan his exit, and he is freaking out about taxes now that I finally got it through his thick head how this all works.

So what should he do to fix this? When he sells some BTC, can he just use a cost basis of $0 from the few BTC he has leftover and use an arbitrary date in 2018 close to when he sold the LTC/ETH and pay taxes on the full amount as a long-term gain? Can he just comment that it was from undocumented trades? Is this likely to trigger an audit? He wants to be honest now to "not jeopardize his Lambo" or end up in jail. Can he plead ignorance here and avoid penalties?

I helped him download all of his transactions from Coinbase and Gemini and put them in a spreadsheet. He hasn't sold any Bitcoin ever, which is awesome because he bought some when it was under $1,000! When I sum the column for the BTC buys, it is short a few BTC compared to what he has stored in his Ledger, and I just don't know what to tell him.

I suggested that he use the unaccounted for balance first when he finally starts selling to get that out of the way as soon as possible. That way when the price of BTC goes even higher, and he sells larger amounts, those higher values will be tracked better to actual buys on exchanges and hold up better in the event of an audit. But how should he report it? You are supposed to have dates for when it was acquired along with the cost basis, which he doesn't have.

Any advice is greatly appreciated!


The 2020 US Election Was Either An Auction Or Attention Grabbing Event

The 2020 US Election Was Either An Auction Or Attention Grabbing Event
Source: freejoy.aimoo.com ; saviorjoy.livejournal.com

If you want to know the truth about the 2020 US Election, then this is the article you must read.
Donald Trump lost because he was given 4 years but cannot do anything, that’s why no matter how the real voting result turn out, it was still not enough.

The US Millitary and leaders are bunch of stupid people, they was treating the US 2020 Election like an auction or want to make more attention.

The USA is not running like a nation because they have no power to “print” money to solve any problems around economic.

The USA are having bunch of idiots who do not even have gut to talk about new international financial system at public. Many of them still scare of gold holders, some are still thinking about energy power, title grab, etc. They do not want to change because most of them are corrupt people !

The USA people last hope is me the savior Messiah Buddha.
If you want a leader can lead you to final victory, to overcome all kind of deities/gods in other nations, to able have their own financial system where you can print money at will and have a same fair game with other nations, then all you need to do is “gambling” and have faith in me.
All you need to do now is making some donation to me first, then I will tell you what the move/strategy you should make to win the battle.

Here is my cryptocurrency wallet list:
Bitcoin

1GihDtqz2JeTHekX5C7DxzyoBMgyL9sNiC

1MFGJ2u4BTY6T5323HF3fEMpcg4akxoVQw

1L2gaW1gHhP8j7goHkdyQ7XAtst4ncxUCu

1FfAtQWJCEeNwCn6mpmL61miSK3nE8Pg5y

1PZv3iB2MF25FbBs51aVAPvb1pxr5Le5Cz

Ethereum

0x11348E48f8Dd43493D75D49ac2358849A5A0919A

0x4C8fFA3A0c78D6e60EF1E6351F49be0cCFeC62ed

0xaC2E83E2cD6BC15b0c1b9426bbe749D32061a40d

0x31eA6c71A255155386896F333919CCddC9096cB6

0x5619FAeA81d621d9DCE831D3C2E19b0238b2FA17

Litecoin

LRU55KzZtJ1ViqCpFBVygRXsZJCMrCC3Mg

LcWoEwzGEQBpkLVAk32whr76v6ZLo7UUiH

LXdDZLvoxf3Qq5X8pvaro1xAdBXJ7tui9u

LbjWtntp1Lef4YFL8cVxguXVABcTCwSTvM

LbjvKbbSDFAZdfrQY4KEegDws4q8Cq86Yb

Dogecoin

D7hd9tZgvbfFPb17kdwiKcgPEYpHSJz7wk

DHaofih9U7UK47zYesoHhArCiEP6vDj8hi

DU7jGUZjxVzxetjqBvuBpWhgxu8L3KyWuN

DBVr92TgqrLgH7x3pdsditxPm6qxcNrjQC

DQX1BjgHwgetwVWYqYh5JTPQsFF2B8hRr1

Monero

48R9otZW8UrJoGZ3JdtUjTQr9fgVsx9zsGNNETGGmm8vGXRw8sjeSwbNJT1c3ypmNFRcSDBcKG51fKkeBYSahpuRBgYQ4k8

49fcN7YU6xnfq8xAGejTicL3PcQvhYwLKHBwneDPvsEUTdFkbQvrinrJL4y4kpKRDjDM4WPsQAW58QDgLJWyRazZ5Xq3jzc

43RxCt1QnRhSQhiD9emuxgGFEbr2B8qAqEEBQyHiEqXteXVM6nMz8xHV2pCHeqf3kybtMSw2tcRteZZAryVF7HPjN4RJEr9

42wJPQy2kTXGMGrVwr9XcxjMfegehVw9Rbbe6HUnwbK9SvdtuK8Mqa4AHPq2SwV9oMM2mJWcqksN3dwhguM4kbHFKrFTvTE

45p2MBpoAc9L5oz95gKR7Q62seV1hLauJZ4azropCgv4XhL7n7kmGUEShxi98wbt7aSdrjw9w3quggEsdDseREeEJLJy7DH

Digibyte

DHNMsFVQQruZscnPZ39b2cuQy5AQnwwW97

DHyRrst5LmSKQR9draJ8YKNLoTCBUJX8sj

DRXj1hnH6r8wBjWtjygYVwrNXFoAVuHiJe

DL4CAfLNSqNWU9AqrxHdstQgJr9ktV4uph

D6P9LtSKFtLvxHLuRajbcv29Npfht82Uj9

It is all about the present moment, it is not about blaming each other.
It is about what you should do now to make your life better.

Best Regard,
The Savior Messiah Buddha

Source: freejoy.aimoo.com ; saviorjoy.livejournal.com