Bitcoin pulse, guides and news

Tuesday, June 28, 2022

What were/are your goals?

Like the title says, what motivated you to keep going forward and get better at the game? Was it Kappa? Playing friends? Or just the satisfaction of saying you’re good? For me it might sound kinda dumb compared to others, but my favorite weapon irl is the Vector (I own 4, 2 of which are short barreled rifles), I LOVE this little guy, I think it’s the most unique SMG in the market and I almost dropped dead when I saw it in Tarkov, so my goal this wipe became to be able to run almost exclusively the Vector in at least every other raid, I was a bit disappointed with my performance while using AP 6.3 but 45 AP was like a fever dream, no one could stop me and it was so much fun to just turn my brain off and shoot 45 AP into the distance at 1,100 rpm, and this pre-wipe event even made it possible for me to run it EVERY raid rather than every 2-3 raids, whenever I couldn’t use the Vector I’d use the Ump as I found it to be pretty much the same gun just with 500 less rpm, and that was it for me, it’s a bit silly but by the end of it I had enough resources to play my favorite gun almost ALL the time AND succeed while doing so, and I really enjoyed it, I’m not the best player ever, but I had fun along the way and with the end product, the only hassle was the fuel for my bitcoin farm and all the components for it so I could generate income while at work and the random lag spikes I’d have here and there causing me to lose items, but other than that what was YOUR motivation? Was it as silly and tedious as mine or did you do anything spectacular?

Cardano Rumor Rundown June 28, 2022

Hey Everyone!

Let's go...

Newly covered today:

The mainstream is starting to figure out that ETH’s move to PoS will not solve its scalability problems. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/27/morgan-stanley-gpu-demand-likely-to-slow-if-ethereum-moves-to-proof-of-stake/
At this time, BTC is the only crypto asset that Chair Gensler of the SEC is willing to call a commodity. https://twitter.com/HaileyLennonBTC/status/1541436307246698496
Testnet adoption of Node 1.35.0 is now at 50%. Once they hit 75% they will trigger the Vasil hardfork on testnet. https://twitter.com/timbharrison/status/1541445849548472320
JCrypto hosted a great Twitter Space with Virtua with a lot of information about the Cardano Island metaverse project. https://twitter.com/greyskulledm/status/1541527588295921665

Previously Covered but still interesting:

Cointelegraph writes an entire article about the need for mass adoption of liquid staking and manages to avoid mentioning that it’s already alive and well for some time in Cardano. https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-truth-behind-the-misconceptions-holding-liquid-staking-back
Pavia gives us a peek at a mystery building. Is it a garage? A hanger? An incinerator? https://twitter.com/Pavia_io/status/1528695835734822914
The Pavia Builder Tool is coming in June! https://twitter.com/Pavia_io/status/1528755541169913858
Algorand appears to be suffering collective insanity as they consider giving their DeFi projects double votes in governance elections. https://twitter.com/danny_cryptofay/status/1528729769843597313
Don’t forget, yesterday was the day that Laszlo traded 10k bitcoins for a couple of pizzas twelve years ago. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1528733380124151809
It looks like South Korea is trying to find deep pockets to compensate Luna holders and may hold the exchanges responsible. https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1528820015352389632ECB President Christine Lagarde says crypto assets are “worth nothing” and “based on nothing.” She also revealed her son had bad luck in crypto. I’m sure he appreciates his mom putting him on blast to the entire world like that. https://www.politico.eu/article/crypto-assets-worth-nothing-ecb-christine-lagarde/
Indigo has dropped an infographic to help describe the three phases of their token distribution. https://twitter.com/Indigo_protocol/status/1528849687142350849
Cornucopias will have their second NFT Tree sale today (May 25). This time, it will be fruit trees. https://discord.com/channels/829374949587419137/842583414439542805/978401966944309268
Apparently it’s admitted history that the Polkadot consensus protocol was coded up in two weeks. https://twitter.com/rphmeier/status/1528975796865363968
Charles is in DC for the Blockchain Summit 2022 to see if he can make any progress with the regulators. He reports that Senators Lummis & Gillibrand will release their comprehensive crypto bill in June. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1529128012884676610 https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1529128521553018880
DC points out a great thread on sound protocol design in DeFi. This includes tips on when it’s a ponzi and when you are the exit liquidity. https://twitter.com/DCdoso/status/1529121840177741825 https://twitter.com/josephdelong/status/1528887299743924224
Today (the 26th) will be the May Cardano 360. https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1529161615354040320
There is now a replacement for db-sync called Carp. https://twitter.com/dcspark_io/status/1529434530511216640
World Mobile is now advertising air nodes to local entrepreneurs in Zanzibar. https://twitter.com/WorldMobileTeam/status/1529462461644124162
The future is looking…let’s call it…“interesting” for Ethereum 2.0. The beacon chain just experienced a 7 block reorg. Not a huge amount of time encompassed in those 7 blocks…but still a reorg. https://twitter.com/koeppelmann/status/1529458000011972610
Apparently some projects are more up front about “exploiting young talent”. https://twitter.com/josephdelong/status/1529652818197495808
We now have dates on the first Cornucopias Land Mint June 3-7. https://twitter.com/CornucopiasGame/status/1529873760278413319
Shahaf Bar-Geffen of COTI was quoted in a Forbes article on the UST/Luna Terra implosion. https://discord.com/channels/829374949587419137/842583414439542805
Having little buddies for the player is becoming a common theme in Cardano metaverse projects. Pavia has Pavs and Carda Station has ADA Minions. Here’s the very well done video announcing ADA Minions in Carda Station. https://twitter.com/Carda_station/status/1524823060238454784
Paul did a great interview with the Cornucopias team and revealed some additional new details on the upcoming land sale. https://youtu.be/-As4cwicRZ4
IOHK made a documentary about their visit to the Ukraine/Poland border area. https://twitter.com/timbharrison/status/1529872546081931266
ADA Realm and their partner Actum Games have released a VR walkthrough of ADA Realm Island. https://twitter.com/AdaRealm/status/1530624400910864385
Cornucopias has released info on their long awaited land sale. https://discord.com/channels/829374949587419137/842583414439542805 They’ve also released beautiful Unreal Engine 5 video highlighting some lands in their virtual world. https://youtu.be/v52pdDdPzMw Finally, there was a new Copi Cafe with additional land details.
Charles gave us a nice detailed report on his lobbying trip to DC. https://youtu.be/gHOO_fP75aM
The May Cardano 360 is out! https://youtu.be/Ar_8Lo0nV1s
Pavia also released another Q&A video. https://youtu.be/EZj2ZS0YtmM
Carda Station has just announced new indoor avatars (for when you’re not wearing the space suit). https://twitter.com/Carda_station/status/1531048666919755776 They also announced a mint for new lands where some kind of commercial activity may be possible. https://twitter.com/Carda_station/status/1529976942069440512
Pavia just shared this very mysterious video with a spaceman holding a flag. https://twitter.com/Pavia_io/status/1531243217450057728
Charles hosted a “Memorial Day Chat with Charles” Twitter space. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1531463312642392065
Cornucopias has repriced their land mint with the largest plot now going for $1k. This is probably going to make it even more difficult to actually acquire plots. https://discord.com/channels/829374949587419137/842583414439542805 https://twitter.com/CornucopiasGame/status/1531413907134349312
IOHK has released an article about why eUTxO (e.g. Cardano) is so much better than EVM (e.g. Ethereum) for predicting impermanent loss. Two big eUTxO advantages to understand here relate to concentrated liquidity and fee determinism. https://iohk.io/en/blog/posts/2022/05/27/everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-impermanent-loss-and-were-afraid-to-ask/
The rest of the crypto space has suddenly noticed that 5 million NFTs have been minted on Cardano. https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1531317844004294665
In light of all the uncertainty around algorithmic stablecoins lately, COTI has created a Djed FAQ. https://cotinetwork.medium.com/djed-frequently-asked-questions-f636735be76
Ethereum outdid itself in May with 1.2 million failed transactions. That’s a lot of lost gas fees. https://cryptopotato.com/over-1-2-million-ethereum-transactions-failed-in-may/
GeroWallet announces that they are working with a major TV network that is putting out NFTs on Cardano in the next few weeks. Is this DISH? https://twitter.com/Shawn_Gero/status/1531759992285503488
A Georgetown Law Professor has co-authored a work on what “legal wrapper” is best for your DAO in various circumstances including a great alternative to the oft used Swiss Foundation/Tripartite Structure . This level of published detailed direction for DAOs is long overdue. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1531834247505395717
Pavia has a new partnership related to an “NFT Bridge”. https://twitter.com/Pavia_io/status/1531999174920704001
Solana once again decided to surprise no one by going down. However, this time even mainstream media appears to be subtly mocking them for the many outages and restarts. https://twitter.com/SolanaStatus/status/1532043450107015168 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/solana-suffered-its-second-outage-in-a-month-sending-price-plunging.html
Cornucopias has released a full deck on their land sale. https://twitter.com/CornucopiasGame/status/1532123583870287872
Another great thread from Sooraj. This time on the “marriage made in Hell” that is the Ethereum account balance system + Solidity. https://twitter.com/Soorajksaju2/status/1532020250522296322
IOHK has released a Basic Cardano Onboarding Guide and they would like the community’s help to make it even better. https://www.essentialcardano.io/article/your-cardano-onboarding-guide
Ethereum is still facing significant potential challenges with complexity overload, the full spectrum of MEV, Cartelization of the network due to liquid staking derivative platforms, attack surface related to slot leader schedule, the history of PoW validators actually being the same people hiding under multiple different pool names, and other forms of centralization. You can hear ETH devs discussing these issues here in this podcast put up a few days ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UPFwKyaQOE
Specifically on the danger of cartelization of the network, it looks like Ethereum’s choice of slashing in their proof-of-stake model has created this ripple effect problem via derivatization of staked assets in platforms like Lido that creates this potential for cartelization of the network. Here an Ethereum foundation researcher details those risks. https://twitter.com/dannyryan/status/1531383030786314240
Here’s a new Cardano 360 update on the big things World Mobile is doing. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1532521282947915779
New York lawmakers just passed a bill to ban crypto mining related to carbon based sources. It’s been obvious this was coming for a while ever since the reports of mining operations dumping hot waste water into the finger lakes and affecting the ecology. In a place like New York, that kind of thing won’t go unnoticed. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/03/heres-whats-in-new-yorks-new-bitcoin-mining-ban-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/04/new-york-crypto-mining-bill-senator-anna-kelles-interview.html
Reports are also coming in that the Biden Administration crypto plans due in August will target Bitcoin and other proof-of-work chains over their “sky high” energy consumption. I think we all knew this would eventually come despite the wide spectrum of clever rationalizations regarding Bitcoin’s energy use by its maximalists. https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2022/06/02/report-reveals-game-changing-white-house-crypto-plans-that-could-have-a-serious-bitcoin-and-ethereum-price-impact/
Coinbase is really slamming the brakes on growth. They’re actually rescinding employment offers right now due to the “macro environment”. https://blog.coinbase.com/update-on-hiring-plans-bcedfa634989
Apparently Martin Lawrence is bringing an NFT series to Cardano? https://twitter.com/nftmakerio/status/1533371577928404992
Here’s a great thread from u/sobizR revealing the strong trend toward centralization in Ethereum proof-of-stake with a current minimum attack vector of only 3! https://twitter.com/sobizR/status/1532412816619368454
Coincidentally, it looks like the MAV in Bitcoin is also currently 3! https://twitter.com/liberlion17/status/1533752691171770368
Today (June 7), we may get the Lummis-Gillibrand Comprehensive Crypto Bill. Even if it has only a very low chance of getting a foothold, it may be a good indicator of the potential for positive regulatory treatment of cryptocurrencies to come down the road. https://twitter.com/SenLummis/status/1532746920866762754 https://twitter.com/bot_slam/status/1533973084889403392
It sounds like Carda Station is minting the land under their central dome today (June 8). https://twitter.com/JoyeousT/status/1533954184399048705
Bitcoin maximalists REALLY don’t like this data about how concentrated Bitcoin mining was in the early days. https://archive.ph/fqMp3 https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1533986647938932737 https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1534008506847666176
Binance now finds itself under the SEC microscope. Is anybody surprised by this? The sale of atoken related to the most notoriously centralized large cap blockchain that is also related to a giant company running a giant unregulated token exchange might not pass the Howey Test? Clutch your pearls immediately. https://www.engadget.com/sec-is-investigating-binance-over-its-bnb-token-000556001.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-06/us-probes-binance-over-token-that-is-now-world-s-fifth-largest
The Lummis-Gillibrand Responsible Financial Innovation Act has finally been introduced into the US Senate. https://www.gillibrand.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Lummis-Gillibrand%20Responsible%20Financial%20Innovation%20Act%20%5bFinal%5d.pdf
Several mainstream media outlets are reporting that there was a press call with “people familiar with the drafting of the bill” where Cardano was mentioned as falling under the “ancillary asset” category in the Lummis-Gillibrand Bill. Fortunately, it is actually the courts who get to interpret law (when it’s actually passed) in the US and not anonymous people on press calls. https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1534122462065184768 https://decrypt.co/102180/lummis-gillibrand-bill
Here’s a video from Charles on the Lummis-Gillibrand Bill. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1534210747982442496
Caitlin Long’s Custodia Bank is finally suing the Federal Reserve to get a master account. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldelcastillo/2022/06/07/bitcoin-bank-custodia-sues-federal-reserve-demanding-decision-on-master-account/
Solana gets a terrible technical risk score from DefiSafety due to its downtime. https://twitter.com/DefiSafety/status/1534249102032216067
IOG has begun unveiling its long awaited new light wallet, Lace! https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1534726874152173569
By all accounts, the Cardano event at Consensys was massive and thoroughly enjoyed by all. https://twitter.com/SpaceApeAstro/status/1534678462274969605 https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1534689602291867651 https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1534689148912664577 https://twitter.com/RichardMcCrackn/status/1534682942802481152 https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1534689617877815296
Here’s the livestream of Charles’ fireside chat at DcentralCon. https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1534657863875969025
Coti is now listed on Kraken (June 9). https://twitter.com/COTInetwork/status/1534588566185168902
Dish is launching a decentralized identity and loyalty coin system through Atala and Cardano.
Ethereum’s Ropsten testnet goes to PoS. Shortly thereafter: “We do have some missing block proposals”. https://twitter.com/TimBeiko/status/1534568861319671808
Apparently there is going to be a “Cardano Island” metaverse for our Cardano Summit 2021 NFTs? https://twitter.com/IOHK_Josh/status/1535666494046085122
Lido’s staked Ethereum derivative (stETH) depegged from ETH causing concerns over the solvency of a centralized crypto lending platforms (June 11). https://twitter.com/hodlKRYPTONITE/status/1535536331732185089 https://twitter.com/LidoFinance/status/1536756933054676992
IOG has released the EVM sidechain alpha (June 10). https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1535679688139497472
IOG’s new Lace light wallet will include a dApp store with dApp certification. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1535851975031545856
Interesting questions and responses are posted regarding the security of the IOG EVM sidechain in relation to that of Milkomeda. https://twitter.com/theuttermost/status/1535983805743382528 https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1536138950628327425
Our own Whale makes a good point in that in the Island/Pond/Ocean analogy, it’s much better to have one foot in the ocean than in the financially toxic pond right now as the Celsius related events unfold. https://twitter.com/cardano_whale/status/1536231971210563584
Celsius is having a very very bad month. https://twitter.com/CelsiusNetwork/status/1536169010877739009
Three Arrows Capital is also having a very, very bad month. https://twitter.com/thedefiedge/status/1537465349976694786
Charles has been asked to speak before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture. This is an important committee for crypto since they have subcommittees that deal with things like commodities exchanges and they hold hearings with names like “The Future of Digital Asset Regulation”. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1537613316381503489 https://agriculture.house.gov/subcommittees/subcommittee/?IssueID=14897
A Solana protocol just voted to take over a whale’s account so that they can liquidate the whale’s position via OTC markets to avoid open market liquidation. Does anyone think this is how it’s supposed to work in DECENTRALIZED finance? https://realms.today/dao/7sf3tcWm58vhtkJMwuw2P3T6UBX7UE5VKxPMnXJUZ1Hn/proposal/HuaL6cDtuNtfnJgvwMnYiZDHVCoLAuDtVFgJD8kYChJ4 https://twitter.com/FatManTerra/status/1538448035885240321 https://twitter.com/solendprotocol/status/1538483675913805824
The ADA Realm heatmap is back in action with some new and improved features. https://3dkiwi.io/marketmap/adarealm
Ardana clarifies the status of its treasury in light of the Three Arrows Capital revelations. https://twitter.com/ArdanaProject/status/1537717199627923456
In the recent CopiCafe there was mention of “land staking…coming soon”. Land staking is also mentioned in the Cornucopias CopiWiki. https://youtu.be/vPgKJxPlXks?t=1809
The Vasil hardfork combinator event has been pushed back to the last week of July. No big deal. Just more time on testnet for the dApp developers to work on integrating the new Vasil tools into their platforms. https://iohk.io/en/blog/posts/2022/06/20/vasil-upgrade-the-state-of-play/
On-chain voting for governance initiatives is beginning to sprout in Cardano via Voteaire. https://twitter.com/theadaape/status/1536788771210940417 https://twitter.com/voteaire/status/1535012082776694788
Here’s the first clip of actual gameplay from Cornucopias. https://twitter.com/RobGreig3/status/1538663042623340546
Here’s a look at some of the buildings that will be available on Virtua’s Cardano Island. https://twitter.com/Terra_Virtua/status/1538964324038877190
Dirk Hohndel, Chief Open Source Officer at IOHK sat down for a fireside chat with Linus Torvalds. https://twitter.com/linuxfoundation/status/1539255990863941633
A video alleging possible hidden Nazi symbolism in BAYC (the biggest NFT collection in crypto) is provoking discussion. https://twitter.com/optictopic/status/1539087280865828865 https://youtu.be/XpH3O6mnZvw
A Cloudflare outage knocked out big chunks of the internet and a lot of crypto dApps with it. https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/20/cloudflare-outage-knocks-popular-services-offline https://twitter.com/AltcoinPsycho/status/1539142458101096448
Here’s the link for the hearing with Charles before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture. https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1539273885719269376
We have now reached the stage where people are mortgaging their Pavia parcels to access the liquidity. https://twitter.com/FluidTokens/status/1539277134488817666
Cardano is now a Gold Member of the Linux Foundation. https://twitter.com/linuxfoundation/status/1539613003422760965
One of the biggest crypto youtubers seems to be really mad about a social media exchange with a Cardano Ambassador. https://twitter.com/Bitboy_Crypto/status/1538673146064252929 https://twitter.com/Fabian_vBergen/status/1538443734458806274 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bTxXEum57s
MinSwap appears to be asking its community to decide on issues around revenue sharing. https://twitter.com/MinswapDEX/status/1539644300237377536
The EVM world gets confronted with the possibility that eUTxO might bring some new solutions to the table on the impermanent loss issue. https://twitter.com/Welikethetrees/status/1539633419780513794
Here’s the video of Charles testifying before Congress! https://youtu.be/K4ZM2AlGT-s
There will be a World Mobile & Charles AMA next week on Tuesday, June 28th! https://twitter.com/WorldMobileTeam/status/1539880960564633600
Pavia has revealed that the mysterious structure image they posted is actually the gigantic entrance to the stadium. https://twitter.com/Pavia_io/status/1539992780394708997
The Robbery Forest continues doing its thing with yet another $100MM hack. This time it’s the Harmony Horizon bridge. YAY for interoperability!!!! https://twitter.com/harmonyprotocol/status/1540110924400324608
It looks like the LIDO community has overwhelmingly voted to NOT self-limit their control of Ethereum PoS delegation. This is a blow to decentralization in ETH when compared to a blockchain like Cardano. https://twitter.com/sobizR/status/1540728451124015104
IOG has released Cardano Node 1.35.0 which will be the final candidate for the Vasil mainnet hardfork! https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1540711787468795904
The 3AC contagion seems to be wiping out all the big centralized crypto lenders. The last link explains some very general concepts about the liquidations and restructuring that might be in store for these entities. https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/1540830959825731584 https://twitter.com/CoinDesk/status/1540806206456864769 https://twitter.com/BowTiedNightOwl/status/1540864129312837637
Virtua gave us a little overhead glimpse of Cardano island. https://twitter.com/VirtuaMetaverse/status/1541126648631812097

~Army of Spies

Monday, June 27, 2022

Is there a way for the crypto sector to avoid Bitcoin’s halving-related bear markets?

BTC’s high volatility and halving-related bear markets tend to drag down investment and interest in the entire crypto market. Can this be avoided?

There is good reason to be afraid. Previous down markets have seen declines in excess of 80%. While tightfisted hodling might hold wisdom among many Bitcoin (BTC) maximalists, speculators in altcoins know that diamond handing can mean near (or total) annihilation.

Regardless of one’s investment philosophy, in risk-off environments, participation flees the space with haste. The purest among us might see a silver lining as the devastation clears the forest floor of weeds, leaving room for the strongest projects to flourish. Though, doubtlessly, there are many saplings lost who would grow to great heights themselves if they had a chance.

Investment and interest in the digital asset space are water and sunlight to the fertile ground of ideas and entrepreneurship. Less severe declines better serve the market; better a garden than a desert.

A brief history of crypto bear markets

In order to solve a problem, we must first understand its catalyst. Bitcoin and the wider digital asset space have survived a number of bear markets since its inception. By some accounts, depending on one’s definition, we are currently in number five.

The first half of 2012 was fraught with regulatory uncertainty culminating in the closure of TradeHill, the second-largest Bitcoin exchange. This was followed by the hacks of both Bitcoinica and Linode, resulting in tens of thousands of Bitcoin lost and dropping the market by some 40%.¹ But, the price rebounded, albeit briefly, finding new heights above $16 until further hacks, regulatory fears and defaults from the Bitcoin Savings and Trust Ponzi Scheme collapsed the price yet again, down 37%.¹

The enthusiasm for the new digital currency did not stay long suppressed, as BTC rose again to find equilibrium at around $120 for the better part of the next year before rocketing to over $1,100 in the last quarter of 2013. And, just as dramatically, the seizure of the Silk Road by the DEA, China’s Central Bank ban and the scandal around the Mt. Gox closure sank the market into a viciously protracted retracement of 415 days. This phase lasted until early 2015, and the price withered to a mere 17% of the previous market highs.

From there, growth was steady until the middle of 2017, when enthusiasm and market mania launched Bitcoin price into the stratos, peaking in December at nearly $20,000. Eager profit-taking, further hacks and rumors of countries banning the asset, again, crashed the market and BTC languished in the doldrums for over a year. 2019 brought a promising escalation to nearly $14,000 and ranged largely above $10,000 until pandemic fears dropped BTC below $4,000 in March 2020. It was a staggering 1,089 days — nearly three full years — before the crypto market regained its 2017 high.²

But, then, as many in the space have memed, the money printer went “brrrrrr.” Global expansionist monetary policy and fears of fiat inflation fed an unprecedented rise in asset values.

Bitcoin and the greater crypto market found new heights, topping out at nearly $69,000 per BTC and over $3 trillion in the total asset class market capitalization in late 2021.

As of June 20, the pandemic liquidity has dried up. Central banks are hiking rates in response to worrying inflation numbers, and the greater crypto market carries a total investment of a relatively meager $845 billion.² More worrying still, the trend indicates deeper and longer crypto winters, not shorter, befitting a more mature market. Doubtless, this is primarily caused by the inclusion of and speculative mania around the high-risk start-ups that comprise some 50% to 60% of the total digital market cap.²

However, altcoins are not entirely to blame. The 2018 crash saw the Bitcoin price drop 65%.⁴ Growth and adoption of crypto’s apex asset have raised regulatory alarms in many countries and questions about the very sovereignty of national currencies have followed.

How to mitigate risk in the market?

So, it is risk, of course, that drives this undue downward volatility. And, we are in a risk-off environment. Thus, our young and fragile garden wilts first among the deeper-rooted asset classes of convention.

Portfolio managers are acutely aware of this and are required to balance a sliver of crypto investment with a larger slice of safe-haven assets. Retail investors and professionals alike often drop their bags entirely at the first sign of a bear, returning to conventional markets or to cash. This reactionary strategy is seen as a necessary evil, often at the expense of incurring short-term capital gains tax, and at risk of missing significant unpredictable reversals, which is preferred to the devastating and protracted declines of crypto winter.

Must it be so?

How does an asset class so driven by speculative promise de-risk enough to keep interest and investment alive in the worst of times? Bitcoin-heavy crypto portfolios do better, comprising a higher percentage of the least volatile of the major assets. Even so, with a 0.90+ correlation of Bitcoin to the altcoin market, the wake of crypto’s most dominant currency often serves as a churn to smaller assets caught in the same storm.

Many flee to stablecoins in dire times, but, as evidenced by the recent Terra disaster, they fundamentally hold more risk than their fiat peg. And, commodity-paired tokens are burdened with the same concerns inherent to any other digital asset: trust — be it in a marketplace or its organizational entity — regulatory uncertainty and technological vulnerabilities.

No, merely tokenizing safe-haven assets will not provide the stable yang to the volatile yin of the crypto market. When fear is at a maximum, an inverse price relationship, not merely neutrality, must be achieved to retain investment in crypto and at a return that justifies the adoption of this inherent risk.

For those willing and able, inclusion of the inverse Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offered by BetaPro and Proshares does provide a hedge. Much like engaging short positions, however, accessibility hurdles and fees make these solutions all the more unlikely to sustain the average investor through the bear market.

Further, increasingly regulated and compliant centralized exchanges are making leveraged accounts and crypto derivatives unreachable to many in the larger retail markets.⁵

Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) suffer from the limitations of anonymity and solutions offered for shorting mechanisms on such have largely required a centralized exchange to work in collaboration. And, more to the point, both solutions functionally do not support value retention in the crypto market directly.

Are crypto safe-haven assets enough?

The solution to the mass exodus of investment in the crypto bear market must be found in the assets themselves, not in their derivatives. Escaping the inherent risks mentioned above might be, in the medium-term, impossible. But, regulatory clarification is promised and debated around the globe. Centralization and technical risks are finding new mitigations through decentralized autonomous strategies and the engagement of an ever-more discerning crypto-savvy investor.

Through many experiments and trials, crypto entrepreneurs will continue to bring real solutions to the forefront. Applications of blockchain technology that find substantial adoption in down-market “defensive” industries such as healthcare, utilities and the purchase or production of consumer staples would provide an alternative to flight. Such development should be encouraged in these uncertain times. Rather, by the wisdom of the market, such uncertain times should encourage this development.

However, ingenuity should not be limited to merely tokenizing the feeble solutions of the conventional markets. This is a new world with new rules and possibilities. Programmatically incentivized inverse mechanisms are feasible, after all.

Synthetix’s Inverse Synths aspire to do just that, but the protocol sets both a floor and ceiling price, and in such an event, the exchange rate is frozen and only exchangeable on their platform.³ An interesting tool for sure but unlikely to be utilized by the greater crypto market. True solutions will be broadly accessible both geographically and conceptually. Rather than providing merely a dry place to wait out the down-market storm, crypto solutions must provide a return to justify the risk still inherent to our developing asset class.

Is there a silver lining to the bear market? Will the survivors of crypto-winter emerge in a market more rewarding for application and adoption than speculation? Healthy pruning may be just what our young garden needs; a protracted drought surely is unnecessary. Down markets are simply a problem and, with the clever application of blockchain technology, hopefully, a soluble one.

Upcoming World Events

Is anyone else planning to participate any of the following crypto events?

July 26-28 Bitcoin & Mining Crypto Conference in Miami, Florida

July 29-31 NFT Expoverse in Los Angeles, California

Sept.11-14 MetaWeek Dubai in Dubai

Sept. 24 Cryptocurrency Seminar New York in New York City

Sept.28-29 Token2049 Singapore in Singapore

August 9-10 Blockchain Futurist Conference in Toronto, Canada

Is there a way for the crypto sector to avoid Bitcoin’s halving-related bear markets?

BTC’s high volatility and halving-related bear markets tend to drag down investment and interest in the entire crypto market. Can this be avoided?

A brief history of crypto bear markets

But, then, as many in the space have memed, the money printer went “brrrrrr.” Global expansionist monetary policy and fears of fiat inflation fed an unprecedented rise in asset values.

Bitcoin and the greater crypto market found new heights, topping out at nearly $69,000 per BTC and over $3 trillion in the total asset class market capitalization in late 2021.

How to mitigate risk in the market?

Must it be so?

Further, increasingly regulated and compliant centralized exchanges are making leveraged accounts and crypto derivatives unreachable to many in the larger retail markets.⁵

Are crypto safe-haven assets enough?

Is this the first bankrupt whale? CoinFLEX, an exchange that has halted withdrawals and whose users are suffering immensely, sent thier CEO Mark Lamb to appear live on Bloomberg TV. He discussed an "ultra high net worth" whale who can't meet a measly $47M margin call

there's many weird things about this... I've been researching this stuff for days now and I have to say i will kind of blown away that Mr. Lamb went on TV and confirmed some conclusions i had gotten to at best a 50/50 level of certainy based on data i could fine.

read this summary of a lot of extremely hard evidence dug up by r/btc sleuths to give you an idea of why the situation between Mark Lamb and the customers whose $90M his exchange CoinFLEX seems to have lost (or possibly even stolen, though that seems less likely). the story keeps getting weirder and now FatManTerra just started posting about it as well on Twitter, so hold on tight.

Mark Lamb's plan to fix the withdrawals issue for his users is... to sell his users an ultra Ponzified bullshit token paying 20% interest¹. what can i say, the man has large cojones... and BloombergTV reporters didn't challenge him. disgraceful.
Mark Lamb alluded to the existence of a secret market for large derivatives positions. He talked about the need for more transparency around extremely large derivative positions often held by mega-whales and market makers that have never been made public. This blew me away because this is exactly what i suggested might be the case in this very long thread containing a lot of formal data analysis... As mentioned in that thread I was thinking the odds were ~50% i might be right.
Mark Lamb blamed an "ultra high net worth individual" who wouldn't meet a margin call as the reason for the closure. This begs a couple of questions.

what kind of mega whale can't meet a margin call for < $40M?
if CoinFlex is such a backwater handling mostly Bitcoin Cash then why is a mega-whale making trades so big on it that he can't meet the margin call?

Mark Lamb's ultra ponzi coin is called rvUSD. Some on twitter have noted the initials of Roger Ver appearing in the name of the coin. Here's the specifics on the bullshit. Is Roger Ver broke? (or at least having a "liquidity issue"?

(bear in mind it's always possible that this story about the whale could be a lie or a psyop or whatever)

¹ this fundraising plan is the same exact same strategy announced by AEX, a pretty big exchange serving the Chinese market that also halted withdrawals. can't help but think they might be related, and even that perhaps AEX is run by the same team w/different branding. AEX is prolly bigger than you think - their PR materials cited a "$1 billion bank run" which is... a big bank run.

UPDATE: oh look Bloomberg put the actual video up. to see this arrogant prick's bullshit attempt to fool people who don't understand that offering a 20% APY is just... absurd fills me with rage. if you only know one thing about interest rates, know this: Madoff paid 12%. tell your friends, preach the APY truth.

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