Looks like this is going to be a busy week in crypto. Here are the upcoming events likely to move the markets this week.

We can all agree that the markets have been somewhat crabby for a long while now, with very little action except for the recent flash crash. However, this week looks like it's going to have a number of market-moving activities/announcements that might just bring some action in the markets. Trade with caution.

Monday, August 28

• Optimism (OP) mainnet update will take place.

Tuesday, August 29

• Bitstamp's US will delist AXS, CHZ, MANA, MATIC, NEAR, SAND and SOL.
• The decision between Grayscale and the SEC could be announced today.

• Casper Network (CSPR) will go through V1.5.2 node update.

  Wednesday, August 30

• US ADP Non-Farm Employment Data

• US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Quarterly data will be released. (Expected: 2.4%, Previous: 2%)

  Thursday, August 31

• Akash Network (AKT) – Mainnet 6 update will be released.

• TXA (TXA) – Swap and TXA Network mainnet launch.

• PulseChain (PLS) – will be delisted on the spot side on the OKX exchange.

• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) Annual (Exp.: 5.1%, Previous: 5.3%)

• US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Monthly (Exp. 0.2%, Previous: 0.2%)

• US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Annual (Exp.: 4.2%, Previous: 4.1%)

• US Initial Unemployment Claims (Expected: 235k, Previous: 230k)

  Friday, September 1

• Gains Network (GNS) – Tokenomics changes will be implemented.

• The decision between Grayscale and the SEC could be announced today.

• US Average Hourly Earnings Monthly (Exp.: 170k, Previous: 187k)

• US Non-Farm Employment (Exp: 0.3%, Previous: 0.4%)

• US Unemployment Rate (Exp. 3.5%, Previous: 3.5%)

Source: BitcoinSistemi

Understanding Correlation Coefficients and How to Plot them in Excel. (Part II)

Picking up where we left off in Part I

WSTRF , URNM

At r =0.3434 should we consider this relationship significant? No, however, keep in mind that URNM is now the only ETF that holds shares of WSTRF, so while it might not look significant on paper, keep in mind that in reality there is a significant relationship. Sometimes I am using the word "relationship" in place of the word "correlated." Keep in mind that these two words are different but also hold similar meanings. Lets not get bogged down by bullshit semantics and jargon.

EU , UROY

r = 0.8538 yes highly correlated.

URG , UCO

I explained in Part I (https://www.reddit.com/r/Radio_chemistry/comments/162wwcs/understanding_correlation_coefficients_and_how_to/ ) how and why I am using UCO in place of Oil. Is the relationship between UCO and URG significant, in my opinion No

URNJ , UUUU

r = 0.8734 highly correlated. I am going to using a lot of URNJ graphs here. Keep in mind that the data for URNJ only goes back to roughly early February of 2023 so there are much fewer data points to use than for most of the other instruments. Therefore, we might consider that correlation coefficients involving URNJ are a bit little less accurate.

URNJ , URA

r = 0.8409 , not surprised here, they appear highly correlated

URNJ , CCJ

Ok, there may be reason why r is so very not correlated. This one was rather more interesting and just to show how very very favored CCJ is over URNJ, that said I expect this r value might change as time goes on and spot Uranium climbs above $80 per pound. Very excited to see how the relationship between CCJ and URNJ continues to play out.

URNJ , XLE

r = 0.2255 not significantly correlated

WEAT , UCO

A little divergence from Uranium but I wanted to show how the relationship between Oil and other commodities might work. Using WEAT here as a proxy for ZW, however, it does suggest that wheat prices are highly correlated to the price of Oil.

XLE , UCO

In my opinion, I would consider the relationship between XLE and UCO significant at r 0.6792

XLE , SPY

r = 0.0709 not significant at all

CEG ,CCJ

Another interesting relationship between a nuclear utility and a nuclear supplier. Not very significant at r = 0.3098 but something to keep an eye on.

UUP , UUUU

Energy Fuels relationship to the $. Not significant at all.

DYLLF , BNNLF

at r = 0.7841 I would consider this relationship significant, and ever go as far as to say that most all the juniors are highly correlated to each other.

WSTRF , GLATF

at r = 0.3679 I would say this relationship is not significant. I would also suggest that WSTRF is somewhat uncorrelated to most all other names in the Uranium space. When you look at the charts it strikes me as though WSTRF is just plain different from the rest and I wonder if there is some room for a study of non-linear coefficients that I might dive into later on down the road.

That about wraps things up for now, I am going add a bit about using tradingview to get this information and why I think tradingview is not a good program for this metric.

​

CCJ , DXY

The coefficient given for the relationship between CCJ and the DXy for this period of time is 0.60. Notice how similar it is to the 0.70 value we got using excel? While using trading view does easily give you this metric notice that the way the data is displayed is clearly subpar compared to the scatter plots we have using excel. This is why I dont like using tradingview for everything. Don't become so dependent upon tradingview that you become crippled without it.

CCJ , UUP

again at r = 0.63 it appears that using UUP as a proxy for the DXY might have some merit to it.

Gold , DXY

I wanted to include this chart of the DXY and gold to show that when you get r = some negative number between 0 and -1 you have an inverse relationship. Gold and the DXY r = -0.77

Bitcoin , DXY

Again; an (inverse relationship where r = -0.82) even stronger inverse relationship than gold. This will also be a focus going down the line as in the coming weeks I might study the BTC sector a bit more and crunch some correlation coefficients.

That about wraps up what I wanted to say for this week. I am not going to do every single relationship within the energy or the Uranium sector as by now most anyone who has read this far can do this for themself.

Keep in mind that these correlation coefficients are subject to change and not always a rock hard probability of events to take place. Like anything involving statistics take things with a grain if salt

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Understanding liquidity and why a sudden $800m exit can tank a 1T market by 10%

Good morning everyone.

Some of you might be just coming round from your daze after this months market performance. We all checked our phones that day to find some pretty shocking news.

The thing I always found strange when I first entered this space and these sorts of events happened was that everything acted instantly, no matter which coin or which exchange. It all followed the same trend without a moments notice. I was also baffled at how much money could technically leave the eco system in such a short amount of time.

The current entire crypto market cap is very roughly 1 trillion dollars. Yesterday saw just short of 1 billion dollars in liquidation. That’s 0.1% of the entire market cap. Yet everything dropped by around 10%.

How?

Well it’s all to do with liquidity. It boils down to this. Let’s say Microstrategy woke up today and wanted to sell all of his Bitcoins. All 150,000 of them. The current price of BTC is $26,000.

He lists all 150,000 for $25,999 on Binance for sale. Immediately he will sell as many coins to as many buyers that have a bid in for $25,999 or more. After that, the sale will pause until buyers come in with that price. It would be a very tiny portion of his coins sold. Probably less than 50.

So he decides to list the remainder for $24,000. And again, orders are filled but not that many in comparison to the amount he holds. BTCs price has now dropped to below $24,000 because there’s no buyers or liquidity at $26,000 anymore. BTC just dropped 10% and microstrategy still has 140,000 BTC.

In reality, the price or market cap of a coin rests solely on its liquidity properties. If there’s only enough money on the table for 1 BTC at $26,000 then it’s going to be a rough ride when someone sells.

Below are some points I’ve made regarding liquidity and what you should understand.

• Liquidity is the measure of how easily an asset can be bought or sold without causing significant price changes. In the cryptocurrency context, it reflects the ability to convert a digital asset into cash or another asset promptly. Liquidity depends on the presence of active buyers and sellers, as well as the depth of the order book.

• Liquidity acts as a measure of market stability. High liquidity implies a balanced number of buyers and sellers, resulting in smoother trade execution and less impact on prices. On the flip side, low liquidity scenarios lead to heightened price volatility. A large trade in a low-liquidity market can result in exaggerated price fluctuations.

• Market volatility, which often puzzles traders, can be attributed to liquidity dynamics. In markets with low liquidity, even small trades can cause significant price shifts. This results in the price volatility that characterizes cryptocurrency markets.

• In markets with high liquidity, large trades can be executed with minimal price impact. Bid-ask spreads remain narrow, ensuring fair pricing for traders. High liquidity also makes it harder to manipulate prices, contributing to a more accurate representation of asset values.

• Low liquidity markets are prone to price manipulation due to the influence of large holders. Executing significant trades in such scenarios can lead to slippage, where the executed price differs from the expected price due to insufficient orders to match against.

In summary, grasping liquidity is crucial for navigating the cryptocurrency landscape. It directly affects stability, volatility, and the trading experience. While high liquidity promotes stability, low liquidity demands caution due to potential price swings and manipulation risks.

It’s a lot to take in and bend your head around but it is the fundamental force of all crypto markets, even BTC with its massive market capitalisation is subject to its underlying importance.

I hope this helps 😊

FYI I posted this in another sun a couple of weeks ago but it was quite popular so I wanted to reshare here for those that missed it. Enjoy

Bitcoin & Ordinal NFTs - How to & Why own a PRINTs by Gamma.

TL;DR - Looking for an easy, low-cost way to start collecting cutting-edge NFT art? Be an early adopter and check out Gamma's PRINTs!

Hey r/NFT, I wanted to share an awesome opportunity I came across for anyone interested in getting into NFT art collecting without breaking the bank. It's called PRINTs - a set of limited edition digital art NFTs created by the talented artists handpicked for Gamma's exclusive Partner Program.

Here's why you should consider checking them out:

• Super affordable to mint right now since the artists are still up-and-coming

• Get access to pioneering new crypto art talents before they get huge

• PRINT owners get full commercial rights - reprint, resell, use for promotions etc

• Gamma provides IRL gallery exhibitions and events to showcase the art

• As artists gain fame, the value of their original PRINTs will skyrocket

All you need to get started is a crypto wallet (set one up with u/Xversewallet Hiro, etc), some Bitcoin from an exchange like Coinbase, and an account on Gamma's site to connect your wallet and mint. It's really easy and user-friendly.

I love the idea of supporting indie artists early in their careers and benefiting as they blow up. Plus, the art just looks freaking cool! Who doesn't want beautiful, cutting-edge NFT artwork that could end up being worth a fortune down the road?

So if you've been curious about NFTs but weren't sure where to begin, I highly recommend exploring Gamma's PRINTs while prices are still affordable. It's a unique chance to be part of the future of digital art! Let me know if you have any other questions.

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A Blast from the Past: How PGP Paved the Way for Decentralization

In my normal fashion, I did a deep dive into historical events that may have had a huge impact on cryptocurrency as it stands today. Enjoy my little write up, this was fun to research!

Introduced in 1991 by Phil Zimmermann, PGP was a game-changer for email security. Using a combination of symmetric and public-key cryptography, PGP ensured that emails could be sent securely, with only the intended recipient able to decrypt and read them. It allowed for digital signatures, ensuring the authenticity of the sender and the integrity of the message.

Why does PGP matter?

1. Decentralization at Heart: PGP operates without a centralized authority. Users are in full control, generating their own keys. Sound familiar? This is one of the core foundations of cryptocurrency.

2. Public and Private Keys: The dual-key system of PGP is a precursor to the cryptographic methods we see in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

3. Emphasis on Privacy: In a world where privacy is increasingly under threat, PGP stood as a beacon, emphasizing the importance of personal security and privacy.

In many ways, PGP was a precursor to the decentralization movement. It showcased the power of cryptography in ensuring privacy and security in a decentralized manner, long before Satoshi Nakamoto introduced Bitcoin.

I encourage you to read more into this if you have the time, especially if you're interested in the technology and what key events might have impacted where we are today. I kept this pretty short, as there was just too much to put all in one post. Keep hodling team!

Can Bitcoin Outperform Inflation in the Long-run?

I've been thinking lately, particularly this period about if Bitcoin can really beat inflation like we hope. Even if it can, what strategies work best to get the most out of a Bitcoin investment? Lately, I've seen many people trying things like spinning wheels and joining events like Bitget KCGI to earn extra dollars and buy more BTC. But the big question is, can these methods actually help us do better in inflation in the long run? Especially when Fundamental Events tend to affect Bitcoin price most times. And if so, what else are people doing to make their Bitcoin investments stand out and overcome the inflation issue?