Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Lore Timeline (WW3, 2031 - 2039) ~ 25 minute read

Hey dudes. This post is lore entirely within the third world war (hey, that rhymed!). Not all of this is exactly finalised, and some of the details are admittedly vague, but its what I've been working off of.

                                     War*

2031:

The United States military conducts a drone strike on a major arms deal meeting in Iran. Intelligence, supplied by Israel, showed that numerous high ranking generals would be in attendance. What it didn't show was that the supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei was also in attendance. His death sparked weeks of mourning in the county. He is succeeded by his son, 24 year old Mohammad Bagher Khamenei, who is determined to avenge his father's death in a show of Iranian strength. A month after the US drone strike, Iran begins a military blockade of the strait of Hormuz, backed by a Houthi blockade of the red sea and Hamas splinter groups launching missiles at the Suez Canal. With the economy in freefall, the Saudi navy attempted to reopen the blockade with force. Iran begins ballistic missile attacks on Saudi cities. Attacks on numerous oil refineries cause the Trans-Arabian Pipeline to begin burning out of control. America withdrew its Naval presence from the South China Sea and deployed them across all points of the blockade, in the East Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. By the grace of Allah, Iran manages to sink the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower days after it was deployed near the Iranian coast, using Russian supplied anti-ship missiles. After this show of weakness, the Chinese military confidently began a multi-front invasion of Taiwan, beginning in December of 2031. Citizens of the world wake to find World War Three retroactively declared two months prior.

Mossad feeds faux information to the US military concerning a meeting between a Russian Nuclear scientist and a leading Iranian general. Although aware that the Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei would be in attendance, the Israeli delegation conveniently removes this detail in their memo to the United States, urging them to assassinate the general. The unpopular President Ocasio-Cortez and her administration leap at the idea, hoping some Neoliberal flare will help with the opinion polls. Relying on Israeli intelligence, an American drone strikes the meeting center in the south of the country. The Supreme Leader is killed instantly. Mojtaba Khamenei wasn't exactly a popular figure, and in his four years of leadership had enacted a paranoid purge, killing or incarcerating anyone who could likely hold the position over him. This meant that upon his early death, there was no clear successor. Gripped with turmoil, both domestic and, now, foreign, the Iranian government quickly instated Muhammed Khamenei, Mojtaba's 24 year old son, as interim leader before a candidate is sorted out from the upper clerical echelons. This is done so in an attempt to preserve the validity of the regime's structure at a time when many call for its end. Muhammed, however, has other plans. Abusing his new-found power, he consolidates control over the IRG and commands a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This is followed by the Houthi blockade of the red sea, and Hamas cells within the Sinai peninsular attempting to blockade the Suez canal. An American aircraft carrier is sent to sail through the strait as a show of US might, planning on ending the blockade without firing a single shot. The ship finds itself cornered within a newly deployed mine field, and over the next 8 hours, is met with waves of small boat attacks and missile fire. It eventually sinks, with most of the crew being taken hostage and used as attempted leverage against the United States. The following domino effect leads to Iranian military action in Saudi Arabia and American deployment in the middle east and South China Sea. World War Three begins.

The British government begins hardening the Irish-UK border, claiming it is a backdoor for illegal immigration, drug trade and human trafficking into the country.

Artemis X landed a 4 man crew on the Moon. The crew lived in the partially constructed habitat for a planned 180 days. The Third World War breaks out while they are up there. The mission was aborted on day 82. The landing shuttle was struck with a surface-to-air missile while over the South China Sea, killing everyone on board.

19 year old Karakozov, just a few months into his sentence, is dragged from his cell and forcefully conscripted. He's sent to the front line just one week later.

Aamer Sarfraz sets up the Islamic Interests Party in the UK.

100,000 Hezbollah soldiers, recruited from both Shia, Sunni and Christians communities (but still majority Shiite) cross over the Lebanese border. Attempting to take entire towns hostages, and free interned Palestinians from the Northern Camps, the brigade slaughters their way through IDF bases and hamlets. Tens of thousands die in the first four weeks, and Hezbollah forces reach as far into Israel as the Northern tip of the West Bank.

As the PJP becomes the leading opposition party in Britain, many Labour MPs either defect, join the LibDems or retire.

As the different factions begin targeting each other's satellites, the countries start preparing for the real possibility of a large-scale Kessler Syndrome event.

PJP councillors help organise what amounted to the second largest general strike in British history, as 1.5 million workers from varying industries walkout. This brings the country to its knees for a week and a half, with both sides refusing to bend the knee. Prisons are overwhelmed as the police commit to mass arrests of striking workers and trade union leaders. Some are sent to refugee camps to deal with the glut. Around the country, thousands are injured in the ensuing clashes with law enforcement and riots. 14 are killed, although the news heavily suppresses details. Eventually, as public opinion begins to turn violently against the workers, the strike leaders agree to stand down. Farage not only uses this as an excuse to rally against the PJP, but also to bring in sweeping crackdowns and outright bans against trade unions. The general strike cost 5.5 billion pounds in disruption.

After almost 10 long years of war, Russian forces finally take Kiev as NATO's resources begin to drain elsewhere. The southern and eastern parts of the country are annexed, cutting off Ukraine's access to the coast. A Russian puppet is planted as the new leader of the Ukrainian state as Zelenskyy, still the internationally recognised president of Ukraine, flees with his family to Paris.

Supermarkets across the country face food shortages as the inflation rate reaches a 40 year high.

Gasoline prices in the US hit $15 a gallon.

Bitcoin hits $200,000.

Iran begins buying off Saudi clerics, demanding they call on their followers to stop fighting.

Japan becomes the first country in the world to deploy artificial blood for real-world medical care.

Russia breaks the 2026 ceasefire and troops move over the border into Ukraine. Shortly after this, the Russian military occupies the Suwalki gap, cutting the Baltic States off from the rest of Europe. Lithuania triggers Article 5 of NATO. Across Europe, troops mobilise. A few days later, on the 1st of January 2032, the doomsday clock is set to 59 seconds to midnight. The closest it's ever been since it's creation in 1947.

2032:

Eli Crane is elected* 49th President of the United States, exploiting his military past as incumbent President Ocasio-Cortez poorly handles the landing in Taiwan.

Tom Lehrer dies at the age of 104

Chinese Americans face constant racial discrimination. Restaurants are firebombed and citizens believed to be "chinese spies" are attacked in the streets.

Food shortages and unemployment soar in Peru. Government begins heavily militarising the country to maintain order.

The UN merged Unesco with a wing of the peacekeepers to be sent out to heritage sites engulfed in war zones to make sure they weren't harmed. These armed conservationists were given shoot-to-kill orders for any threats to human culture.

Japanese soldiers were deployed in the Korean peninsula to help the South against the onslaught of the DPRK. Dozens of Japanese soldiers were killed by their supposed allies in the South Korean army in "revenge" killings for the crimes their ancestors committed a hundred years prior.

Crude oil prices have skyrocketed to $400 per barrel. The resulting fires from the targeting of Saudi Arabian Oil refineries and the burning of the Tapline releases more tonnage of CO² into the atmosphere in a few months than the first decade of the 21st century.

Major cyberattacks cripple financial systems in the U.S. and Europe, attributed to Chinese and Russian hacking groups.

The mass uprisings in the West Bank destroy settler communities, killing entire colonies and burning them to the ground. The IDF uses napalm in an attack on Ramallah. The Ramallah siege murders over 15,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, in just two weeks.

The middle class shrinks as businesses relying on transportation; logistics, aviation, shipping — collapse. Unemployment hits double digits globally.

America enacts a total military blockade on Cuba.

A 7.5 magnitude earthquake strikes near Tirana, Albania, leaving 200,000 homeless. Tens of thousands of Albanian refugees flee to the United Kingdom.

Mao Tianyi joins the CCP.

Germany joins the war effort on the side of Nato. A Wartime Unity Government is formed from the Greens, SPD, CDU/CSU; FDP(although they are not in parliament they still help); The Pro Russian BSW and AfD do not join. Germany Instituted mandatory conscription for all citizens aged 18-45, regardless of gender.

The pro-Putin Christian Orthodox militant biker gang "Night Wolves" begins taking up arms across Europe, targeting people at random to spread terror at home.

Estonia and Latvia demand U.S. security guarantees as Russian aircraft violate airspace daily.

Russian hypersonic missile strikes and destroys the London Broadcasting House (BBC hq)

Jungkook is killed in a North Korean airstrike.

Russian troops enter Latvia and Estonia.

2033:

Fearing a Chinese land invasion, the Japanese war government armed the general population, with the help of the United States. Guns are airdropped into coastal communities.

Ardent militarist, hardline Republican and American exceptionalist, newly elected President Eli Crane announces a strange revelation. His claim? That a Mossad-affiliated group was operating a blackmailing racket in the US, and had been since the 1970s. Their express goal was to entrench US foreign policy in a deeply pro-Israel position. His source? A quote “anonymous informant within the CIA”.

President Crane rushed security bill after security bill through the house and senate, each including the mountingò legislature that gave him more power.

Notorious porn artist "Shadman" is killed in a ICBM strike

US President Eli Crane reinstates the imperial system in America

Research funding for artificial organs quintuples, the demand growing dramatically on the backdrop of the Third world war

While the rest of the world is embroiled in the conflict of the 3rd world war, the mostly neutral (although Eastern faction-leaning) Brazil begins its own internal war. Brazil begins rounding up gang members without trail, declaring Martial law and sending the full force of the military into the most effected communities. Over the next few years, the country rounds up over 550,000 "criminals", confining them to expansive and isolated prison camps. The Brazilian government never intended to incarcerate the convicted. Instead, they staged mass executions, mostly by firing squad. The army executes over 500,000 in the space of 5 years, including some as young as 12 years of age. The cartel members who survived and escaped the country flooded into the south, setting their operations up once again mostly in Argentina, in cities like Rosario and Buenos Aires.

Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles strike Kadena Air Base, destroying over 70% of U.S. aircraft on the ground and severely damaging naval assets in the surrounding waters.

Heating oil shortages hit hard during winter, leaving millions freezing in the Northern Hemisphere. In the U.K., the elderly are encouraged to move into public "heat hubs" for warmth.

Xi Jinping steps down as president of China due to ill health. He appoints Chen Jining as his successor. Chen shares many of Xi's views, while also encompassing a more hardline USSResque foreign policy.

Amid the global conflict, the Cabo Delgado insurgency of Mozambique declares an independent Islamic state in the north of the country. As this new nation is vehemently opposed to Chinese influence and vows to force them out of the country's natural gas industry, it is quickly recognised by the west.

The first fully automated surgery is performed on a human, removing a cyst from a woman in England.

In 2033, after years of planning and coordination, the governments of Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and Chile joined forces to create the Latin American Space Agency (AELA), a semi-private entity with the goal of promoting cooperation and the development of space technologies in the region. With headquarters in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and secondary headquarters in Mexico City, Mexico, Buenos Aires, Argentina, and Santiago, Chile, AELA was established as a center of excellence for the research and development of space technologies. The agency is composed of a multidisciplinary team of experts in engineering, physics, mathematics, astronomy, and other disciplines related to space exploration. Its mission is to foster collaboration and the exchange of knowledge and technologies among member countries, with the goal of boosting the economic and social development of the region. The AELA focuses on several areas, including: - Development of satellites and navigation systems - Space exploration and astronomy - Research and development of space technologies - Education and training in space sciences - International cooperation and promotion of the Latin American space industry With the creation of the AELA, member countries seek to strengthen their position on the global space stage, promote innovation and entrepreneurship, and improve the quality of life of their citizens. The agency becomes a symbol of regional cooperation and integration, and an important step towards a more prosperous and sustainable future for Latin America.

A prolonged drought and collapsing agricultural subsidies spark widespread food shortages across Guinea-Bissau. When grain prices triple in less than six weeks, protests erupt in Bissau and quickly spread. Rioters storm warehouses, and the government imposes a curfew as looting escalates. As Ww3 rages on, few foreign nations can send aid, and can only watch at the small nation descends into famine.

2034:

US President Eli Crane partially suspended Congress and emboldened the newly established war cabinet.

Profiting immensely from the World War, Elon Musk becomes the world's first Trillionaire at age 62

In the midst of the war, the United Front for Security (UFS), a far-right coalition, wins key positions in the Peruvian Congress, promising to restore order.

The USS Gerald R Ford is sunk in the South China Sea

The martyr Huzaifa Syed, a 6 year old Pakistani boy in Kashmir, is shot dead by Indian border police. This sends shock waves through the nation as Huzaifa becomes the symbol of Islamic resistance in Pakistan. Pakistan and India are at war within the month as tens of thousands of Islamist militants cross into India, followed by the Pakistani army. Pakistan is, at this point, aware that a conventional war between the two states is nearly unwinnable. As such, they attempt to spark uprisings across India, urging Muslim citizens to take up arms against the Indian government. In many cases this succeeds. Street clashes between Hindus and Muslims in major mixed cities become a weekly, then daily occurrence

Japan declares martial law following mass protests and cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure

terrorist attacks kill on average 400 Indian civilians a month.

Chinese-backed coup in Guatemala.

AI-powered humanitarian aid predicts famine and disaster risks months in advance, reducing response time by 50%.

The Svartöga cartel is founded in Sweden. A merger of dozens of different ethnic Swedish gangs in order to combat foreign encroachment.

"Children of Dusk" sci-fi book becomes a bestseller in US and Canada.

Swiss President Marcel Dettling announces the county's intent to become nuclear capable before 2045, to ensure neutrality.

The United Kingdom closes its borders to Pakistani immigrants due to the overwhelming flood of refugees fleeing their war torn home. Soon after, mass protests began within the county, mostly in the already well established South Asian immigrant communities, such as Bradford. Off the back of this, small salafist groups in the UK begin spreading the message that the British government is actively attempting to wipe out Islam from within its borders.

2035:

Countless Republican politicians abandoned the party as Crane began to take increasingly authoritarian control over the government. Some join the Democrats, but many instead joined the Libertarian party. This influx of “moderates” created a split in the party, with the more extreme Libertarians breaking off to form the Night-watchman party.

Tamil nationalism flares up as tens of millions of Hindu Indians migrate South to avoid extreme heat and overpopulation

The US successfully retakes Okinawa, following the Chinese take-over in 2034. In this island hopping campaign, reminiscent of WW2, America loses almost 70,000 troops against China's 100,000 losses, as well as the death of well over 200,000 Japanese civilians. However, the strategic victory opens the door for an American invasion of Taiwan

Switzerland becomes Nuclear capable

"Children of Dusk" sci-fi book get banned in every country of the world except bhutan

London is engulfed in street fighting between Pakistani and Indian migrant communities. The same violence spreads to other metropolitan areas.

Bolivian troops cross the border into the northern tip of Chile, forging a sovereign corridor to the coastline and annexing territory above the river Camarones.

Pakistan breaks the US’ ruling against the country's usage of American F16s against India. The Pakistani military carry out carpet bombings of border towns, as well as against crucial infrastructure that connects India to Kashmir. Islamist terrorist become increasingly heavily armed, and Kashmir is divided into varying warlord regions as all forms of civil leadership dissolves.

China scrapes together some amount of its already thinly spread military to be sent to Aksai Chin. They clash with both India and Pakistan. During the war, a few Chinese officials voice support for Pakistan, but little to no monetary or military aid is sent. Pakistan's main supporters are Russia and Iran. India receives lethal aid from both NATO and the United States, as well as intelligence from Israel.

By late 2035, Pakistani forces are fully pushed out of Indian territory. Thousands of soldiers on both sides die from heat stroke and exhaustion as they march through the Thar desert, with temperatures reaching 53°C (127°F). Before the end of the year, India has captured Lahore after intense urban fighting. Even after the occupation begins, constant attacks from militias flood the Indian garrisons.

Pakistan uses a small yield (1kT) tactical nuclear weapon against an Indian military convoy. This escalation sends shockwaves around the war torn world, as experts claim it sets a dangerous new precedence. India strongly debates a nuclear retaliation, but finally rules against it as the explosion occurred within Pakistan's sovereign borders.

India begins extreme crackdowns on Muslim communities, using their own version of the patriot act. Mosques are raided, Islamic schools are forcefully closed and mass internment begins.

In December of 2035, the unthinkable happens. Prime minister Modi is assassinated in a suicide bombing. The perpetrators are quickly linked back to Pakistan. Yogi Adityanath is swiftly sworn in as his successor. Adityanath's new approach to dealing with the “Muslim pest” is even more heavy handed.

2036:

Crane is re-elected US president, although mass voter fraud is alleged.

India strikes covert deals with the Taliban, urging them to invade western Pakistan and promising their support. In February of 2036, the Taliban launches a massive cross-border incursion, with thousands of former Jihadists, now working desk jobs as civil servants, taking up arms once again.

Alexi Karakozov narrowly avoids being killed by a Polish sniper. He hijacks a car and makes it back to Moscow in time for the coup.

A group of top Russian generals conspired to overthrow the now senile and deranged Putin. Putin flees with his most trusted body guards to a woodland mansion compound in rural Arkhangelsk. NATO forces have pushed into Russia now, taking Smolensk, besieging St Petersburg approaching the gates of Moscow. The New Russian Army retreats to Moscow, where it begins reorganising citizens into the fortified Moscow Metro, issuing rations and basic training at the mostly German and Polish troops approach.

This semi-technocratic military tribunal takes hold of the Russia state. It reorganises the military, pulling troops continuously back from the front line. By 2036, over three million foreign troops have been mobilised. North Koreans, Chinese, Central Asians and Syrians. Most of which have no uniform and one gun.

Nikolai Valuev takes his place as the head of United Russia, although his power is neutered.

The United Kingdom closes its borders to Pakistani immigrants due to the overwhelming flood of refugees fleeing their war torn home. Soon after, mass protests began within the county, mostly in the already well established South Asian immigrant communities, such as Bradford. Off the back of this, small salafist groups in the UK begin spreading the message that the British government is actively attempting to wipe out Islam from within its borders.

The armies of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya and Tanzania act as one as they invade the DRC to secure their joint interests in the Kivu region. This action was seen as a precursor to the formation of the East African Federation as a formal state.

Liechtenstein achieves carbon neutrality, with all energy provided by solar, wind, and hydropower. The Green Cities Program transforms urban spaces with vertical gardens, eco-housing, and zero-emission transport.

The UN releases an estimate that the Iranian blockade against the world, as it came to be known, resulted in between 25 - 50 million deaths globally. Mainly due to water and food insecurity caused by supply chain collapse, as well the sheer amounts of pollution.

Alexi Karakozov leads a special task force into Putin's lair. After a night of fighting, they come across Putin's bedroom where the 83 year old man is pacing around pretending to make military commands. Karakozov shoots him in the head. The group of men pose with Putin's body like a fallen big game animal. A picture is taken, which is popularised all over Russia, with Putin being remembered by his image in the photo - a senile old man with a beard to rival Rasputin's, dressed in a pink kimono.

Over 500,000 Iranian civilians have been killed in NATO bombings of Iranian cities.

Morena candidate Marcelo Ebrard is elected as president in the Mexican elections. Mexico joins the war effort on the American side, supplying its neighbor with oil.

NASA comes under full AI leadership and administration

Alexi Karakozov is given the rank of Podpolkovnik, one of the youngest to achieve it.

France is forced to pull back troops to further impose martial law at home. France's involvement in the war grows increasingly unpopular. Riots engulf Paris and anti-Eastern European pogroms target refugee accommodation.

During the period of early 2036, the Pakistani military is in ruin. Despite this, large parts of the civilian population has reorganised itself into an effective militia. Any urban encounter for the Indian army turns into weeks long guerilla warfare.

India strikes covert deals with the Taliban, urging them to invade western Pakistan and promising their support. In February of 2036, the Taliban launches a massive cross-border incursion, with thousands of former Jihadists, now working desk jobs as civil servants, taking up arms once again.

Yogi Adityanath participates in a firing squad execution of a convicted terrorist on live TV.

Pakistani Prime Minister Hamza Shahbaz is arrested by the military, under charges of failing to protect his nation. He escapes, however, and flees to Karachi. Islamabad remains under military rule.

Taliban militants sack a Pakistani nuclear silo, stealing an undetermined amount of enriched fissile material before exporting it back to Afghanistan.

The death toll of the Pakistani military passes 1 million.

Islamic terrorist plot to bomb the Taj Mahal is foiled, but leads to a day long shoot out with police.

Hindu militias begin to organise within mixed cities in India. Muslim businesses and residential buildings are firebombed. Thousands die in mass pogroms over the course of just a few weeks in April of 2036.

The INS Vikrant is mistakenly sunk by a strike from an American nuclear submarine monitoring the coast of Iran, killing 1,428 personnel.

India enacts laws making the crime of gauhatya punishable by death when committed by Muslims, and a fine of 50 million rupees when committed by Hindus.

The death toll for the Indian military reaches 1 million.

Peace negotiations suggested by India are denied by both the Shahbaz government and the military government. This comes as India captures the city of Sargodha, marking its occupation of 30% of the country.

Hamza Shahbaz calls a covert ceasefire with the military government, and returns to Islamabad. They discuss the use of nuclear missiles, of which Pakistan still has control over 55% of their arsenal. A vote is held, which results in a 5 - 4 vote in favour of the nuclear option. On the 16th of July 2036, Pakistan fires 109 nuclear missile, between 5 and 45kT, at Indian military installations and urban areas. Most target Indian nuclear facilities in hopes of crushing the country's ability to respond. Most focus on crippling India's military and the remainder attack cities. Explosions across New Delhi, Mumbai, Lucknow and many other cities kill 34 million within the first 24 hours. 50 million more are injured, suffering severe burns with no hope of medical assistance. Yogi Adityanath immediately broadcasts a strong willed message to the nation, invoking the indomitable Hindu spirit and vowing to turn Pakistan into a charred crater.

Later on in the day, India launches a volley of 135 nuclear bombs. Some towards Pakistan's remaining military targets, but most towards cities and other civilian areas. These attacks are conducted with the express intention of causing maximum casualties, and in this task India succeeds. 92 million people are killed in the initial 24 hours following the attacks. Pakistan's population declines by 30% in one day. Karachi is entirely destroyed, following 10 separate nuclear strikes.

India's capital is moved to Varanasi, which was miraculously left unscathed after the missile targeting it misfired and landed in the Thar desert. This measure was intended to be temporary, but remains by 2064.

A rogue Pakistani general attempted to fire a nuclear bomb at Tel Aviv. It ends up landing a mile off the coast, detonating in the water. Despite this, it killed 729 and injures over 35,000. In the long term, it cripples the Israeli fishing industry.

This becomes the first real world example of a full scale nuclear war. 3 million tons of black carbon plume into the atmosphere. In the first year, the global temperature drops by 1°C. This causes a knock on effect, which leads to extreme cold snaps across Eastern Europe in the Winter of ‘36 (this had devastating effects on the NATO Invasion of Russia, but that's a story for another day). Crop yields drop by an average of 15% across the board. In the West, food supply chains come under extreme stress, but hold due to draconian rationing. This is not the case for Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia and, especially, South Asia, which experiences full scale collapse. The death toll of this famine is put at anywhere between 50 and 200 million, lasting well into the 2040s.

By 2064, India's population has recovered and even seen growth. Society has changed dramatically within the country, however, with Aghori warlords in the North and a rise of Tamil nationalism in the South, as well as dozens of other violent groups.

The same cannot be said for Pakistan. Shortly after the 2063 census, the country's native population dipped below 200 million. Pakistanis represent the largest immigrant group in the UK, as well as dozens of other countries. The Pakistani state is a puppet of India. Over 100 million Indian Muslims have been deported to Pakistan since Ww3, all of whom live in irradiated slums and bring the country's total population to what it was in 2035. Infertility is rife among these groups, with a birth rate of only 1.1 despite rampant poverty and lack of education. Cancer and birth defects are several magnitudes greater than the average, which is true also for the rest of Pakistan and parts of India. “Post-Apocalyptic” is an accurate term to describe these areas.

Militant groups, such as Aakhar, control swathes of former Pakistani territory. The Taliban remain in control of almost all Pashtun majority areas, an annexation recognised by India at first, then several other countries.

The total number of fatalities this war caused, and whether to include them as part of of the Ww3 death toll, is still debated in 2064. The range of estimates rests between 140 million and 500 million. Either way, the 5th Indo-Pak War (also referred to as The Sarvanaash, or the 1st Nuclear War) is the most destruction war in human history.

The resulting Nuclear Autumn served as a particularly interesting case study for the world's ruling class. They became convinced that a nuclear war could be winnable under the right circumstances, seeing as how death toll estimates for a hypothetical Nuclear War between India and Pakistan was wild overestimated. Despite this newfound interest in the use of nuclear weapons in conventional warfare, the post-Ww3 United Nations (reformed entirely with new, authoritarian powers) attempts to enforce denuclearisation. This, naturally, fails, although most countries commit to decreasing their yield and size of their nuclear arsenals by 50%. By 2064, global nuclear stockpiles are the same as 110 years prior.

2037:

At its peak, Iran mobilised nearly 10 million military aged men during the third world war. With such a deficit in the workforce, millions of women were given employment in factories and other sectors. This led to the second wave of modern feminism in Iran.

Tens of thousands of NATO troops freeze to death in their makeshift barracks. As supply chains falter under the Nuclear Autumn, food trucks bound to the Western Forces are raided by starving Russian civilians before they even get close.

Burkina Faso is taken over my Islamist militants. Much of the country's Christian population flee soon after, mostly to southern Nigeria.

The U.S. suffers widespread internal unrest following cyberattacks on its power grid, leading to riots in major cities.

Philippines Declares Permanent State of Emergency Due to Typhoons

In retaliation of America maintaining its war machine on Mexican oil, China backs a Zapatista Insurgency, taking the Mexican Military by surprise.

The Islamic Republic of Mozambique falls into civil war.

Russia retakes Smolensk.

Voyager 1’s final transmission is captured by the Atacama Large Millimeter Array in Chile. The data contains a brief burst of cosmic ray readings and, to the surprise of scientists, a binary checksum string. Many believe this is a secret last message, possibly sneaked in by one of the original programmers of the spacecraft, though no one can be certain. One day later, NASA releases the data publicly and holds an open funeral for the legendary spacecraft. The New York Times headlines the event with the words: “Voyager’s Last Words.” Beneath the headline, the binary string is displayed in full: 01000111011011110110111101100100011000100111100101100101001011000010000001010111011011110111001001101100011001000010111000010101

During the period following the aftermath of The Sarvanaash (Indo-Pak Nuclear War) millions of refugees from both India and Pakistan attempted to flee to the UK. The new left-wing government of Britain leads with an open border policy, allowing an unprecedented amount of migrants to enter the country over the course of just five years.

2038:

The Worker Cooperative Act is passed in Lichtenstein, promoting employee ownership of businesses and ensuring that corporations operate under strict social and environmental guidelines.

NATO forces have been almost completely pushed out of Russian territory.

Mao Tianyi is assigned deputy culture minister of China.

40 million people have been internally displaced in China.

Brazil leaves the ICC following accusations of crimes against humanity.

2039:

The Black Dragon society reformed in Japan, feeding off rampant Ultranationalism.

The Taliban becomes Nuclear capable.

The car in which Marcelo Ebrard, president of Mexico, was being transported, explodes. The government is taken over by the military, and a junta is declared.

The German wartime unity government collapses and snap elections are held. Due to public discontent with the War-managment oft the Wartime Unity Government, the AfD wins with ~39% and forms a government with the BSW, who despite being considered far left and far right, utilise their „Germany First“ agenda to establish a coalition dubbed the „Right-Left coalition."

Japan pegs its national currency to the dollar.

Peace is reached in 2039. The territory NATO took, Kaliningrad and half of Belarus, and formed into the Democratic Republic of Russia. Russia keeps much of its Ukrainian territory, however Crimea remains part of Ukraine. The Russian majority province of Latgale becomes an "independent" state (puppet of Russia) and is Russosized to Latgaliya.

The far eastern front, America and China sign the SADA (Sino-American Demilitarisation Agreement)

In the Middle East, Iran has been crippled. Any gains from the war have been retaken, although Western troops fail to invade Iranian into territory. A war weary and much changed Tehran sues for peace.

                          Peace*

When I tell you I hate my life… I really do… Facebook likes to remind me…

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Monday, July 14, 2025

5 ways BTC reaches $1 Billion by June 2026

  1. Hyper-Accelerated Global Monetary Devaluation and Hyperinflation:

    • Premise: A rapid and severe global economic crisis, characterized by unprecedented levels of quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus across major economies, leading to a catastrophic loss of confidence in fiat currencies. This scenario would involve widespread hyperinflation in multiple reserve currencies, rendering traditional stores of value (e.g., government bonds, low-yield equities) effectively worthless.
    • Mechanism: As governments resort to increasingly aggressive money printing to service burgeoning national debts and fund social programs, the purchasing power of their currencies would erode at an exponential rate. Investors, institutions, and even nation-states would desperately seek an alternative, scarce, and censorship-resistant store of value.
    • Bitcoin's Role: Bitcoin's fixed supply cap (21 million) and disinflationary emission schedule (halving every ~4 years) would make it the ultimate hedge against hyperinflation. Its programmatic scarcity would be perceived as the only reliable counter to infinite fiat currency creation. In such an environment, the demand for Bitcoin would not be driven by speculative interest but by an urgent need for financial preservation, akin to a "flight to safety" on a global, systemic scale.
    • Mathematical Implication: If the global money supply (M2) in major economies (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CNY) were to expand by, say, 50-100% annually for the next year, and a significant fraction (e.g., 5-10%) of this newly created liquidity sought refuge in Bitcoin, it could theoretically drive its market cap to extreme levels. For instance, if global M2 is roughly $100T, and just 1% of this flows into BTC due to hyperinflation, that's a $1T market cap.
  2. Near-Total Institutional Adoption and Sovereign Wealth Fund Influx:

    • Premise: The complete capitulation of traditional financial institutions and sovereign wealth funds to Bitcoin as a primary reserve asset, driven by the aforementioned monetary crisis and a competitive fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) dynamic.
    • Mechanism: Following the initial institutional inroads made by spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries (e.g., MicroStrategy, various publicly traded companies), this scenario posits an aggressive, rapid pivot. Central banks, sovereign wealth funds (e.g., Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority), and major pension funds (e.g., CalPERS, CalSTRS) would begin allocating unprecedented percentages (e.g., 1-5%) of their multi-trillion-dollar portfolios to Bitcoin. This would not be a gradual adoption but a sudden, synchronized shift.
    • Catalyst: The collapse of confidence in traditional financial instruments and the proven resilience of Bitcoin during extreme market volatility would serve as the catalyst. Regulatory hurdles would be summarily dismissed or overcome by overwhelming market pressure and national security interests (preserving wealth).
    • Mathematical Implication: With global institutional assets under management (AUM) estimated in the tens of trillions (e.g., $100-200T), a mere 0.5-1% allocation to Bitcoin across these entities would represent a capital inflow of $500B to $2T, potentially pushing the market cap into the trillion-dollar range.
  3. Quantum Leap in Lightning Network Adoption and Microtransaction Utility:

    • Premise: The Lightning Network, or a similar Layer 2 scaling solution, achieves near-ubiquitous adoption for global retail payments and remittances, fundamentally transforming Bitcoin into the world's primary medium of exchange.
    • Mechanism: Significant technological breakthroughs would eliminate current friction points in Lightning (e.g., liquidity management, channel management, routing reliability). User interfaces would become so intuitive that Bitcoin transactions via Lightning would be seamless, instant, and virtually free, surpassing traditional credit card networks and even stablecoin alternatives in efficiency and reach.
    • Network Effect and Demand: This would lead to an exponential increase in Bitcoin's utility beyond just a store of value. As billions of people use Bitcoin for daily transactions, the underlying demand for the base layer asset would surge, driven by the need for channel liquidity, security, and the inherent network effect. Enterprises would integrate Lightning into their payment infrastructure, further solidifying its position.
    • Self-Reinforcing Loop: Increased utility drives increased demand for the underlying asset, which in turn fuels price appreciation, attracting more users and developers, creating a virtuous cycle.
  4. Bitcoin Halving (April 2024) and Subsequent Supply Shock:

    • Premise: The April 2024 halving event would precipitate an unprecedented and sustained supply shock, far exceeding historical price responses.
    • Mechanism: With the block subsidy decreasing from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, the daily new supply of Bitcoin would be cut in half. In a scenario of hyper-accelerated demand (as described above), this reduced issuance would clash violently with surging inflows, creating an extreme imbalance between supply and demand. Miners would hold rather than sell, further exacerbating the supply crunch.
    • Price Discovery: Traditional price discovery mechanisms would be overwhelmed. The market would be forced to reprice Bitcoin dramatically upwards to reflect its new scarcity in the face of insatiable demand. This would manifest as a "melt-up" scenario, where price gains are parabolic due to a lack of available sell-side liquidity.
  5. Global Geopolitical Realignment and Digital Asset Hegemony:

    • Premise: A significant shift in global power dynamics where nations or blocs of nations adopt Bitcoin as a de facto or de jure reserve asset and a tool for economic sovereignty, circumventing existing financial systems.
    • Mechanism: Nations facing sanctions, seeking financial independence, or simply recognizing the inevitable shift would openly embrace Bitcoin. This could include state-sponsored mining operations, large-scale Bitcoin purchases for national treasuries, and the development of national Bitcoin-backed financial products. This would be a coordinated, albeit non-public, effort among several nations.
    • Network Effect on a National Scale: The first few nations to formally integrate Bitcoin would create immense pressure on others to follow suit, leading to a geopolitical "Bitcoin arms race" where securing a significant BTC treasury becomes a matter of national economic security.

The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (07/14/2025)

MarketFlux.io is a real-time financial news and analytics aggregator that gathers textual news from over 350 sources, providing instant insights and advanced filtering capabilities. With AI-powered sentiment analysis, historical search, and customizable filters, MarketFlux.io enables traders and investors to efficiently track market-moving events as they unfold. Visit Marketflux.io

Company News

Fastenal Company (FAST)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  4.16%

5D Change:  6.13%

Fastenal Beats Q2 Earnings Estimates, Stock Hits 52-Week High

Fastenal Company (FAST) kicked off the earnings season with a strong performance for the second quarter of 2025. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.52, surpassing estimates of $0.51 and marking a 4% increase year-over-year. Revenue also exceeded expectations, reaching $1.89 billion, up 1.9% from the previous year.

Full coverage of $FAST on MarketFlux.io

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  5.08%

5D Change:  -6.61%

Autodesk Stock Soars as Company Abandons PTC Acquisition Plans

Autodesk's stock has surged following reports that the company has abandoned its pursuit of software firm PTC. The potential cash-and-stock deal, which would have been one of the year's largest acquisitions, valued PTC at $23.2 billion and Autodesk at $60 billion.

Full coverage of $ADSK on MarketFlux.io

Waters Corporation (WAT)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  -13.87%

5D Change:  -12.22%

Waters and BD Unit Announce $17.5B Merger, Creating Life Science Powerhouse

Waters Corporation and BD's Biosciences & Diagnostic Solutions unit are merging in a $17.5 billion Reverse Morris Trust deal. The transaction will create a leading life science and diagnostics company focused on regulated, high-volume testing.

Full coverage of $WAT on MarketFlux.io

Macro Events

Trump's Fresh Tariff Threats Rattle Global Markets

European shares and Wall Street futures tumble as President Trump issues new tariff threats against the EU and Mexico.

Trump's 30% Tariff Threat Rattles Markets as China's Trade Data Defies Expectations

China's trade data for June has shown a surprising rebound, defying concerns about a tariff-driven slowdown. Exports rose by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing previous figures, while imports also rebounded with a 2.3% increase. This positive momentum comes as exporters rush to capitalize on a fragile tariff truce between Beijing and Washington ahead of a looming August deadline.

Fed Official Hammack: Economy Healthy, but Inflation Concerns Persist; No Immediate Rate Cuts Planned

Federal Reserve official Michelle Hammack has made several key statements regarding the current economic situation and monetary policy. Hammack emphasized that the economy is "really healthy," but inflation remains a concern. While progress has been made towards the Fed's target, inflation is still too high, necessitating a continued restrictive monetary policy stance.

White House Adviser Slams Fed's Tariff Stance, Calls for Rethinking Central Bank's Actions

White House Senior Adviser Kevin Hassett criticizes the Federal Reserve's stance on tariffs, calling it "very wrong." He suggests a need to rethink the Fed's actions and awaits their response to "cost overrun."

Fed Chair Calls for Review of Costly Headquarters Renovation Amid Pressure

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has requested the Fed's inspector general to review the costs of a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project.

Trump Open to Trade Talks, Expects European Delegation for Tariff Discussions

President Trump expresses openness to trade talks, particularly with Europe. He indicates that European representatives are coming to discuss trade deals and tariffs.

Trump Adviser Hassett Emerges as Top Contender for Fed Chair Amid Inflation Concerns

Kevin Hassett, a former White House economic adviser to Donald Trump, is emerging as a frontrunner in the race for the next Federal Reserve Chair. The Washington Post reports that Hassett is gaining momentum in the selection process, which remains fluid under President Trump's administration.

Trump Slams High Interest Rates, Calls for Sub-1% Rates Amid 'No Inflation'

President Trump criticizes high interest rates, claiming they cost $360 billion per point. He asserts there's no inflation and argues rates should be below 1%.

Global Inflation Data Mixed as Central Banks Navigate Economic Landscape

Switzerland's Producer Price Index (PPI) remained steady at -0.7% year-over-year in June. Meanwhile, India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation unexpectedly turned negative, dropping to -0.13% from 0.39% previously, defying estimates of 0.53%.

EU Prepares Retaliatory Tariffs as US Trade Tensions Escalate

The European Union is bracing for a potential trade war with the United States. Italy's Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani revealed that the EU has prepared a list of tariffs worth $24.52 billion on US goods if trade negotiations fail. EU Commissioner Šefčovič emphasized the need to prevent this scenario.

BOJ Mulls Inflation Forecast Hike Amid Rising Food Prices

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is poised to revise its inflation forecast upward at the upcoming July 30-31 meeting. This consideration comes in response to higher-than-expected rice and food-related prices.

Money Market Yields Soar as Trump's Trade War Rattles Markets

Money market accounts and savings rates are offering attractive yields, with APYs up to 4.41% and 4.3% respectively. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield remains steady as markets await CPI data.

BOJ Survey Reveals High Inflation Expectations Among Japanese Households

Japanese households anticipate significant inflation, according to a BOJ survey. 85.1% expect prices to rise next year, with an average increase of 12.8%.

Mexico Prepares for Potential Tariff Showdown with US

Mexican President Sheinbaum addresses the ongoing tariff negotiations with the US. She reveals that both countries have a working scheme until August 1st.

Trump Touts Economic Strength, Criticizes High Interest Rates While Admitting to Market Agitation

President Trump boasts about the US economy's strength, claiming it's performing well despite high interest rates. He praises Treasury Secretary Bessent for calming the market.

Brazil's Economy Unexpectedly Contracts as High Interest Rates Take Toll

Brazil's economic activity unexpectedly declined in May, signaling a significant downturn.

Brazil Seeks US Tariff Reduction and Postponement, Eyes Special Terms for Exports

Brazil plans to approach the US with a request to reduce tariffs to 30%. According to CNN Brasil, the country may also seek a 90-day postponement on upcoming tariff hikes.

Bond Markets Shift as Traders Reassess Fed Rate Cut Expectations

The bond market is experiencing significant shifts as investors recalibrate their expectations for Federal Reserve actions. Treasury yields continue to steepen, with the 30-year bond yield approaching the psychological 5% level. Traders are now skeptical about a potential September rate cut, a sentiment shift occurring just before the release of new consumer price index data.

ECB to Assess Negative Scenarios Amid Trump Tariff Threat, Rate Hold Expected

The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to review downside scenarios next week in response to President Trump's recent tariff threat. This scenario is expected to be more negative than anticipated in June.

Geopolitics Events

Trump Issues 50-Day Ultimatum to Russia, Threatens 100% Tariffs and Boosts Ukraine Support

In a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, President Donald Trump has issued a stark ultimatum to Russia, threatening to impose severe "secondary" tariffs if a deal is not reached within the next 50 days. The proposed tariffs could reach as high as 100% on Russian exports, a move that would have far-reaching implications for global trade and diplomatic relations.

Trump Threatens Russia with 100% Sanctions, Promises More Weapons for Ukraine

President Donald Trump has made a bold announcement regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In a meeting with NATO's Secretary General, Trump declared that the United States would impose 100% "secondary" tariffs on Russia if a ceasefire deal is not reached within 50 days. This threat extends to countries that continue to trade with Russia, particularly those purchasing Russian oil.

Trump's 30% Tariff Threat Rattles Markets as China's Trade Data Defies Expectations

China's trade data for June has shown a surprising rebound, defying concerns about a tariff-driven slowdown. Exports rose by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing previous figures, while imports also rebounded with a 2.3% increase. This positive momentum comes as exporters rush to capitalize on a fragile tariff truce between Beijing and Washington ahead of a looming August deadline.

Supreme Court Greenlights Trump's Massive Education Department Downsizing

In a significant legal victory for the Trump administration, the U.S. Supreme Court has lifted a lower court's order that had previously halted the White House's plans to drastically reduce the Department of Education's workforce. This ruling clears the way for President Trump to proceed with his controversial initiative to "streamline" the agency.

White House Adviser Slams Fed's Tariff Stance, Calls for Rethinking Central Bank's Actions

White House Senior Adviser Kevin Hassett criticizes the Federal Reserve's stance on tariffs, calling it "very wrong." He suggests a need to rethink the Fed's actions and awaits their response to "cost overrun."

xAI Launches "Grok for Government," Secures DoD Contract

xAI, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, has unveiled "Grok for Government," a suite of AI products tailored for U.S. government customers. The announcement includes a new contract with the Department of Defense.

Trump Unveils Massive AI and Energy Investment Plan in Pennsylvania

President Donald Trump is set to announce a significant $70 billion investment in artificial intelligence and energy sectors in Pennsylvania.

Trump Open to Trade Talks, Expects European Delegation for Tariff Discussions

President Trump expresses openness to trade talks, particularly with Europe. He indicates that European representatives are coming to discuss trade deals and tariffs.

Pentagon Partners with Top AI Firms for National Security Initiatives

The Pentagon's CDAO has awarded $200 million contracts to four frontier AI companies: Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, and XAI.

Trump Slams High Interest Rates, Calls for Sub-1% Rates Amid 'No Inflation'

President Trump criticizes high interest rates, claiming they cost $360 billion per point. He asserts there's no inflation and argues rates should be below 1%.

Money Market Yields Soar as Trump's Trade War Rattles Markets

Money market accounts and savings rates are offering attractive yields, with APYs up to 4.41% and 4.3% respectively. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield remains steady as markets await CPI data.

Trump Brags About Ability to Sway Stock Market with TV Appearances

President Trump boasts about his influence on the stock market.

China Approves Synopsys' Multibillion-Dollar Ansys Acquisition

China has granted conditional approval for Synopsys' $35 billion acquisition of Ansys.

Trump Touts Economic Strength, Criticizes High Interest Rates While Admitting to Market Agitation

President Trump boasts about the US economy's strength, claiming it's performing well despite high interest rates. He praises Treasury Secretary Bessent for calming the market.

Trump Calls Putin "Tough Guy," Downplays Talks with Russian Leader

President Trump offers a nuanced view on Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing him as a "tough guy" while hesitating to label him an "assassin."

Trump Unveils Plan to Arm Ukraine with Advanced U.S. Weapons Through NATO

President Trump meets with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte to discuss Ukraine support. Trump announces a deal to send top-of-the-line weapons, including Patriot missiles, to Ukraine via NATO allies.

Iran Finalizes Military Protocols for Strait of Hormuz, Closure Decision Pending

Iran's National Security Parliamentary Committee has finalized military protocols for the Strait of Hormuz. However, no decision has been made to close the strategic waterway.

Chinese Tech Firm Contests U.S. Military Affiliation Ruling

China-based Hesai, a LIDAR manufacturer, is appealing a U.S. ruling that upheld its designation as a company aiding Beijing's military.

Technology Events

Meta CEO Zuckerberg Pledges Billions for Superintelligence, Unveils Massive AI Data Center Plans

Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta Platforms, has announced a massive investment in artificial intelligence, pledging hundreds of billions of dollars to build superintelligence. This ambitious plan involves constructing several multi-gigawatt data centers to power Meta's AI efforts.

Pentagon Partners with Top AI Firms for National Security Initiatives

The Pentagon's CDAO has awarded $200 million contracts to four frontier AI companies: Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, and XAI.

Meta Considers Scrapping Open-Source AI Model for Closed Approach

Meta's new Superintelligence Lab, under Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang, is contemplating a significant shift in AI strategy.

Cognition Acquires Windsurf Amid AI Industry Talent Grab

AI startup Cognition, known for its coding agent Devin, has agreed to acquire Windsurf. This move comes just days after Google struck a $2.4 billion deal for Windsurf's top talent and licensing rights.

Crypto Events

Bitcoin Shatters Records, Surpassing $122,000 Amid U.S. Lawmakers' "Crypto Week"

Bitcoin has surged to unprecedented heights, crossing the $120,000 mark and reaching a new all-time high of $122,000. This remarkable rally comes as U.S. lawmakers focus on pro-crypto legislation during what's being called "Crypto Week."

Strategy Acquires 4,225 Bitcoin for $472.5 Million, Boosting Total Holdings

Strategy, a major player in the cryptocurrency market, has made a significant move by acquiring 4,225 Bitcoin for $472.5 million. The purchase, made between July 7-13, was at an average price of $111,827 per BTC.

Sequans Boosts Bitcoin Holdings, Now Owns Over 1,000 BTC Worth $120 Million

Sequans Communications has significantly expanded its Bitcoin holdings. The chipmaker purchased 683 additional Bitcoin for $79 million, paying an average of $116,000 per coin.

Crypto Treasuries Surge as Firms Launch Multi-Million Dollar Initiatives

Mercurity Fintech launches a $500 million DeFi treasury focused on Solana, while Sonnet BioTherapeutics agrees to an $888 million crypto treasury deal. MicroStrategy, now called Strategy, benefits from Bitcoin's record price.

BitMine Immersion Boosts Ethereum Holdings to $500 Million, Stock Rises

BitMine Immersion, a cryptocurrency company, has significantly increased its Ethereum holdings to approximately $500 million. This substantial investment follows a successful capital raise, boosting the company's Ethereum treasury strategy.

Corporate Actions Events

Crypto Giant Grayscale Confidentially Files for U.S. IPO

Grayscale Investments, a prominent crypto investment firm, has confidentially submitted a draft registration for an initial public offering (IPO) to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Musk Firmly Rejects Potential Tesla-xAI Merger

Elon Musk has firmly rejected the idea of a merger between Tesla and xAI.

Huntington Bancshares Acquires Veritex in $1.9 Billion Banking Merger

Huntington Bancshares announces acquisition of Veritex Holdings for $1.9 billion in an all-stock deal. The merger aims to expand Huntington's presence in the banking sector.

Musk Backs Tesla Investment in xAI, Opposes Merger as Shareholders Prepare to Vote

Elon Musk clarifies his stance on Tesla's potential involvement with xAI, his AI startup. He opposes a merger but supports an investment, subject to shareholder approval.

Autodesk Abandons PTC Acquisition Bid, Stock Climbs

Autodesk has abandoned its pursuit to acquire software firm PTC, a deal that would have been one of the year's largest. The potential cash-and-stock acquisition valued PTC at $23.2B and Autodesk at $60B.

Fixed Income And Interest Rates Events

Trump Slams High Interest Rates, Calls for Sub-1% Rates Amid 'No Inflation'

President Trump criticizes high interest rates, claiming they cost $360 billion per point. He asserts there's no inflation and argues rates should be below 1%.

Trump Touts Economic Strength, Criticizes High Interest Rates While Admitting to Market Agitation

President Trump boasts about the US economy's strength, claiming it's performing well despite high interest rates. He praises Treasury Secretary Bessent for calming the market.

Bond Markets Roil as Euro Holds Steady Amid Tariff Tensions

Global bond yields surge as Digital Dutch Finco completes €850m bond offering. Euro remains resilient despite tariff concerns, while bond markets show signs of unease.

Brazil's Economy Unexpectedly Contracts as High Interest Rates Take Toll

Brazil's economic activity unexpectedly declined in May, signaling a significant downturn.

Bond Markets Shift as Traders Reassess Fed Rate Cut Expectations

The bond market is experiencing significant shifts as investors recalibrate their expectations for Federal Reserve actions. Treasury yields continue to steepen, with the 30-year bond yield approaching the psychological 5% level. Traders are now skeptical about a potential September rate cut, a sentiment shift occurring just before the release of new consumer price index data.

Misc Events

EU Summons X for Talks Over Grok Chatbot's Antisemitic Content

EU officials are set to meet with X representatives following antisemitic posts made by the company's Grok chatbot. The incident has raised concerns about AI ethics and content moderation on the platform.

Iran Confirms No Plans Set for Nuclear Talks with US

Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei has announced that there is no specific date, time, or location set for the next round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States.

Earnings Events

Fastenal Stock Climbs as Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenue Meets Target

Fastenal's Q2 earnings surpass expectations, driving stock gains.

Explore more at MarketFlux

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Ndax Market Report, Key Notes & Crypto Overview

Market Updates

  • Over the past seven days, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased from CA$4.58 trillion to CA$5.19 trillion.
  • Bitcoin's market dominance stands at 63.7%, while Ethereum's share is 9.7%. 

Crypto News

  • Canada Seeks New U.S. Trade Deal by Aug. 1 Amid Trump's Threat of 35% Tariffs Ctvnews
  • Bitcoin ETFs Attract Record $1.2B in Inflows as BTC Price Hits New All-Time High CryptoSlate
  • US Senators Propose Sanctions on El Salvador’s Bukele Over Bitcoin and Human Rights Concerns CryptoSlate
  • The Graph Integrates Real-Time Data Streaming with TRON Blockchain to Boost dApp Development CryptoSlate
  • New Zealand Bans Crypto ATMs, Imposes Limits on Cash Transfers to Fight Financial Crime Cointelegraph
  • TON Foundation Clarifies Misleading UAE Golden Visa Claims, Denies Official Partnership CryptoSlate
  • Ethereum Foundation Completes First OTC ETH Sale, SharpLink Buys 10,000 ETH as Treasury Reserve CoinDesk
  • NFT Sales Reach $2.8B in First Half of 2025 Despite Continued Drop in Trading Volume Cointelegraph

Market Moves

  • Over the past 24 hours, the price of BTC has fluctuated between CA$162K and CA$168K registering a 12% change over the past week and a market cap of CA$3.3 trillion. At Ndax, the weekly movers are ALGO, which saw a 58% increase in the last seven days reaching a market cap of CA$3.3 billion, and HBAR, which experienced a 50% rise with a market cap of CA$13.9 billion. (At time of writing)

Upcoming Events

  • July 15 – SEI Token Unlock 
  • July 15 – US Core CPI Announcement   
  • July 15 – Canada Core Inflation Rate Announcement 
  • July 16 – ARB Token Unlock 

Sunday, July 13, 2025

Take Our Gainesville Padel Club Survey!

Hey r/GainesvillePadel! We’re gauging interest for a premier indoor Padel facility in Gainesville, with Pickleball integration, top-tier courts, community perks, and Bitcoin prize tournaments (“Smash, Sip, HODL”). Share your thoughts via our survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/WPSNTBP. Let’s shape the future of Padel here! [Flair: Event]


The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (07/11/2025)

MarketFlux.io is a real-time financial news and analytics aggregator that gathers textual news from over 350 sources, providing instant insights and advanced filtering capabilities. With AI-powered sentiment analysis, historical search, and customizable filters, MarketFlux.io enables traders and investors to efficiently track market-moving events as they unfold. Visit Marketflux.io

Geopolitics Events

Trump Shocks Markets with 35% Canada Tariff Threat, Escalating Global Trade Tensions

In a shocking move that has sent ripples through global markets, President Donald Trump has announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, set to take effect on August 1, 2025. This decision marks a significant escalation in trade tensions between the United States and its northern neighbor, threatening to disrupt long-standing economic ties.

Stock Market Tumbles as Trump's Canada Tariff Threat Spooks Investors Ahead of Crucial Earnings Week

Rubio to Meet Chinese Counterpart Amid Rising Tensions and Trade Concerns

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to meet China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Malaysia amid escalating US-Chinese tensions. The meeting, occurring on the sidelines of ASEAN talks, comes as both nations vie for influence in Asia.

China and U.S. Boost Diplomatic Channels, Rubio Hints at Potential Trump-Xi Summit

In a significant diplomatic development, China and the United States have agreed to boost communication channels at all levels, as reported by Chinese state media CCTV. The agreement aims to improve discussions and cooperation in various areas while addressing differences between the two nations.

China's Foreign Minister Conducts Diplomatic Blitz, Seeks Improved Relations with Multiple Countries

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi engaged in a series of diplomatic meetings in Malaysia, focusing on improving international relations. He met with counterparts from Australia, the UK, and Canada, emphasizing cooperation and mutual understanding.

US Reports Unexpected June Budget Surplus, Masking Underlying Fiscal Challenges

The US Treasury reported a surprising $27.01 billion budget surplus for June 2025, defying expectations of an $11 billion deficit. This marks a significant turnaround from the $71 billion deficit recorded a year ago.

Trump Blasts Fed Chair Powell's Performance as "Terrible"

President Trump harshly criticizes Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's performance, describing it as "terrible."

State Department Initiates Mass Layoffs as Trump Administration Reviews Federal Workforce

The Trump administration is implementing significant changes in federal agencies. The State Department is set to lay off over 1,300 employees, aligning with Trump's 'America First' agenda. Formal notifications to affected staff have begun, marking the start of a major restructuring.

Google Offers Cloud Discount to US Government Amid Tech Scrutiny

Google plans to offer discounted cloud computing services to the US government, according to Financial Times reports.

UK Economy Shrinks as Trump Escalates Global Trade Tensions

UK economy unexpectedly contracted in May, with GDP dropping 0.1%. This economic setback coincides with President Trump's expansion of trade conflicts.

Rubio Signals Likely Trump-Xi Summit, Highlighting Positive Relations

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio announces high probability of a Trump-Xi meeting. He emphasizes Trump's "very positive" relationship with Xi Jinping.

China and US Agree to Strengthen Communication Channels

China and the United States have reached an agreement to enhance communication channels at all levels, according to CCTV.

Trump Administration Reverses Course on FEMA Abolition Plan

The Trump administration has abandoned its plan to abolish FEMA, as reported by the Washington Post. This reversal comes after bipartisan pressure to maintain national disaster readiness.

Macro Events

Trump Shocks Markets with 35% Canada Tariff Threat, Escalating Global Trade Tensions

In a shocking move that has sent ripples through global markets, President Donald Trump has announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, set to take effect on August 1, 2025. This decision marks a significant escalation in trade tensions between the United States and its northern neighbor, threatening to disrupt long-standing economic ties.

Canada's Job Market Surges, Unemployment Rate Falls to 6.9%

Canada's labor market experienced a significant rebound in June, defying expectations and adding 83,100 new jobs. This marks the first increase since January and the largest rise this year. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.9% from 7.0% in May, beating forecasts of 7.1%. The participation rate also increased to 65.4% from 65.3%.

UK Economy Contracts in May Despite Quarterly Growth; Manufacturing and Trade Show Mixed Signals

The UK's economic indicators for May 2025 show mixed results. Monthly GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.1%, falling short of the forecasted 0.1% growth. However, the three-month GDP estimate rose by 0.5%, surpassing expectations.

ECB Officials Clash on Monetary Policy as Economy Shows Mixed Signals

ECB officials Panetta and Schnabel have presented contrasting views on monetary policy. Panetta advocates for continued easing, citing downside growth risks that strengthen the disinflationary process. He emphasizes the need for flexibility and pragmatism in the coming months, suggesting further rate cuts if weak growth weighs on prices.

Fed Chair Powell Reportedly Mulls Resignation, Markets Brace for Potential Shake-up

Breaking news has emerged that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is reportedly considering resigning from his position. This information comes from multiple sources, including the U.S. Federal Housing and William J. Pulte, chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Fed's Goolsbee Warns New Tariffs May Delay Rate Cuts and Spark Inflation Concerns

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has raised concerns about the potential impact of new tariff threats on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. In a series of statements, Goolsbee emphasized that these tariffs could complicate the inflation outlook and potentially delay anticipated interest rate cuts.

French Inflation Edges Up in June, UK GDP Growth Beats Expectations

French consumer inflation data for June has been released, showing an uptick in prices. The year-on-year CPI rose to 1.0%, surpassing expectations of 0.9%.

Trump Blasts Fed Chair Powell's Performance as "Terrible"

President Trump harshly criticizes Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's performance, describing it as "terrible."

UK Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks, Defying Rebound Expectations

The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in May, falling short of expectations for a slight rebound.

ECB's Panetta Calls for Flexible Approach, Suggests Rate Cuts if Growth Weakens

ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta advocates for a flexible monetary policy approach in the coming months. He suggests the ECB should consider further interest rate cuts if economic growth falls short of expectations and negatively impacts inflation.

Trump's Canada Tariff Threat Sends Stock Market Tumbling

The stock market is experiencing a significant downturn today, with major indices falling sharply at the opening bell. The Dow Jones dropped 300 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also declined. This market turbulence is largely attributed to President Trump's threat of imposing a 35% tariff on Canada.

Trump Signals Possible Tariff Talks with Brazil; Lula Warns of Retaliation

President Trump indicates potential discussions with Brazil regarding tariffs. In response, Brazil's President Lula warns of retaliation if U.S. implements new tariffs.

Canada Delays Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Steel and Aluminum

Canada postpones implementation of counter-tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum imports, according to Politico.

Fed Official Urges Patience, Seeks More Positive Data Before Confirming Economic Stability

Fed's Goolsbee expresses caution about the economic outlook, emphasizing the need for anxiety to subside before feeling confident about a soft landing.

Trump Considers Tariff Talks with Brazil as Lula Warns of Reciprocal Action

President Trump hints at potential discussions with Brazil regarding tariffs, signaling a possible diplomatic approach to trade tensions.

Walmart Suppliers Halt Bangladesh Orders Amid Looming US Tariffs

Walmart suppliers in Bangladesh are pausing garment orders due to President Trump's threat of 35% US tariffs starting August 1.

European Markets Plunge as Trade War Escalates, Economic Worries Mount

European stocks tumble as Trump expands trade war. Markets react to tariff uncertainty, with Euro Stoxx 50 falling 1%.

Trump Administration Reverses Course on FEMA Abolition Plan

The Trump administration has abandoned its plan to abolish FEMA, as reported by the Washington Post. This reversal comes after bipartisan pressure to maintain national disaster readiness.

Crypto Events

Bitcoin Breaks $118,000 Barrier, Boosting Crypto-Related Stocks

Bitcoin surges past $118,000, reaching new all-time highs. The cryptocurrency's price surge drives up crypto-exposed stocks as investors embrace risk-on sentiment.

SharpLink Gaming Acquires 10,000 ETH Directly from Ethereum Foundation

SharpLink Gaming ($SBET) has made a significant move in the crypto market.

MicroCloud Hologram Makes Major Bitcoin Investment, Sees Significant Returns

MicroCloud Hologram Inc. has invested up to $200 million in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency-related securities derivatives.

BTC Digital Finalizes $1 Million Ethereum Strategic Reserve

BTC Digital, also known as BTCT, has completed the establishment of a $1 million Ethereum strategic reserve.

Technology Events

JPMorgan Demands Payment from Fintechs for Customer Data Access

JPMorgan announces that fintech companies will be required to pay for access to customer data.

Intel Spins Out AI Robotics Venture RealSense with $50M Funding

Intel is spinning out its AI robotics and biometrics venture, RealSense, with a $50 million Series A investment.

Gorilla Technology Unveils Massive Pipeline, Partners with NVIDIA

Gorilla Technology announces a $5.6 billion global pipeline across 87 opportunities. The company becomes an official NVIDIA solutions provider, expecting to close $1.3 billion in contracts by mid-2026.

Huawei Challenges Nvidia with New Flexible AI Chip Design

Huawei is developing a new, flexible general-purpose AI chip design. This move aims to compete with Nvidia and break its dominance in China's AI market.

Corporate Actions Events

Kraft Heinz Explores $20 Billion Spinoff in Major Restructuring Plan

Kraft Heinz is reportedly planning a major restructuring, considering spinning off a significant portion of its grocery business. The potential spinoff could create a separate entity valued at up to $20 billion.

Musk's xAI Aims for Staggering $200 Billion Valuation in Fundraising Effort

Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, xAI, is reportedly seeking to raise funds at a valuation of up to $200 billion.

Oil And Gas Events

BP Reports Mixed Q2: Higher Output and Strong Trading Offset by Lower Energy Prices

BP reports a mixed Q2 performance. Production increased and oil trading delivered strong results, but lower energy prices impacted revenues. Refining margins improved, yet a potential $1.5B asset write-down looms.

US Energy Department Taps Strategic Reserve to Aid Gulf Coast Fuel Supply

The US Department of Energy has approved an exchange from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with ExxonMobil. This move aims to address logistical challenges affecting crude oil deliveries to Exxon's Baton Rouge refinery.

IEA Boosts Oil Supply Forecast, Cuts Demand Growth Estimates in Latest Report

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its latest monthly report, revising forecasts for global oil supply and demand.

Global Oil Market Tightens as Russia Considers Gasoline Export Ban and Saudi Boosts Production

The global oil market is showing signs of tightening, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Despite apparent stock builds, price indicators suggest a tighter physical market, with prompt time spreads in steep backwardation and healthy refinery margins.

Crude Oil Prices Surge as US Oil Rig Count Declines

WTI crude oil futures settled at $68.45 per barrel, up $1.88 or 2.82%. Brent crude futures also rose, settling at $70.36/bbl, up $1.72 or 2.51%.

US Oil Rig Count Dips as Price Uncertainty Persists

Baker Hughes reports a decline in US oil rig count to 424, down from 425 previously. Key shale basins show minimal changes, with Cana Woodford seeing a decrease of 3 rigs.

Saudi Arabia Breaks OPEC+ Quota, Boosts Oil Production Amid Regional Tensions

Saudi Arabia has significantly increased its oil production in June, surpassing its OPEC+ quota. This rare breach comes as a surprise, given Saudi Arabia's history of criticizing other members for overproduction.

Oil Prices Rebound Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Despite Demand Concerns

Oil futures recover some losses from the previous day, driven by geopolitical risks and tariff delays. Prices rise, putting petroleum futures on track for weekly gains.

Metals Events

Canada Delays Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Steel and Aluminum

Canada postpones implementation of counter-tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum imports, according to Politico.

Healthcare Events

MiNK Therapeutics' Cancer Breakthrough Sends Stock Soaring

MiNK Therapeutics announces a breakthrough in cancer treatment. Their allogeneic iNKT cell therapy, agenT-797, achieved complete remission in a patient with metastatic testicular cancer.

FDA Rejection Hammers Biotech Firm, Novartis Loses Patent Case

Capricor Therapeutics faces a major setback as the FDA rejects its Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug application. The company's shares plummet in response to this unexpected decision.

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