Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Proposal: Bitcoin Mining Day – A Random, Community Chosen Date Every Year

👉 The date is never fixed.
👉 Each year, the community votes on a randomly selected pool of dates.

Why Random?
A predictable mining event could allow centralized players to shift or manipulate their hashrate.
By randomizing the date each year — and letting the community vote — we maintain fairness, prevent gaming, and show the power of decentralized coordination.

How It Works:

  1. Each year, a shortlist of 3–5 random dates will be generated.
  2. The community votes on which date will become that year’s Bitcoin Mining Day.
  3. On that day, we mine. As one network. No breaks. No control.

Goal:
To remind the world that Bitcoin’s strength lies in its decentralization — and that everyone can still play a role in securing the network.

💬 Comment below to support this idea, suggest how the voting should work, or offer tools to help organize it.

#BitcoinMiningDay #DecentralizeTheHash #MineTogether


Quantum Threat Discussion: Jameson Lopp proposes freezing Satoshi Nakamoto (and same-era) wallet addresses. This is **important** meta-discussion.

Coindesk article (paraphrases the situation): https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2025/07/16/bitcoin-devs-float-proposal-to-freeze-quantum-vulnerable-addresses-even-satoshi-nakamoto-s

Lopp's blog: https://blog.lopp.net/against-quantum-recovery-of-bitcoin/

I've been trying to tell people that conversations surrounding the Quantum threat are conversations that we need to get comfortable with having. If quantum computing is an actual threat to bitcoin, then it could produce a black swan event. It will get fixed, but the question then becomes "How much damage would be done?"

The proposal Lopp floats is as follows: Some wallet addresses (known as P2PK) will become quantum-vulnerable. These are first-generation bitcoin wallet addresses, including Satoshi's that all begin with "04." The proposal is to exclude these from sending transactions in the future by implementing a soft fork now. In this scenario, satoshi's coins are safe, but -here's the problem- anyone who may be storing their bitcoin on such legacy addresses are also excluded from conducting transactions on the bitcoin blockchain.

He goes over the moral and ethical perspective as well: "Should a quantum-supreme-entity be able to steal Satoshi's coins even if they have the intention to send them to a burner wallet address?" Please note I am paraphrasing and encourage you to read his blog. What about the guy who lost $600 million USD of bitcoin in that landfill? Is it ethical to recover his bitcoin via quantum computing?

Ultimately, I am glad to see that there is something of a proposal to fix the problem before it starts, but this binary fix sounds like it will inevitably harm some participants in the bitcoin ecosystem.

Discuss!


The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (07/16/2025)

MarketFlux.io is a real-time financial news and analytics aggregator that gathers textual news from over 350 sources, providing instant insights and advanced filtering capabilities. With AI-powered sentiment analysis, historical search, and customizable filters, MarketFlux.io enables traders and investors to efficiently track market-moving events as they unfold. Visit Marketflux.io

Company News

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  6.23%

5D Change:  5.45%

Johnson & Johnson Beats Earnings Expectations, Raises Full-Year Outlook Amid Strong Sales

Johnson & Johnson (J&J) has delivered a strong performance in the second quarter of 2025, surpassing Wall Street expectations and prompting the company to raise its full-year outlook. The healthcare giant reported earnings per share of $2.77, beating the estimated $2.68, and revenue of $23.74 billion, exceeding the forecast of $22.86 billion.

Full coverage of $JNJ on MarketFlux.io

Blackrock, Inc. (BLK)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  3.44%

5D Change:  -0.57%

BlackRock Stock Rebounds Amid Mixed Analyst Reactions and Indian Market Expansion

BlackRock faces mixed news as analysts adjust their outlook. Jefferies and KBW lowered their price targets for the company, citing margin pressures. Despite this, BlackRock's stock bounced back as Wall Street shrugged off a massive client redemption.

Full coverage of $BLK on MarketFlux.io

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  -3.73%

5D Change:  -3.96%

Valero Energy Sees Mixed Analyst Reactions Following Q3 Earnings Release

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) released its Q3 2024 earnings call transcript today. The company faced mixed analyst reactions, with Morgan Stanley maintaining an Overweight rating and raising the price target to $160. However, Citigroup downgraded VLO from Buy to Neutral.

Full coverage of $VLO on MarketFlux.io

Other News

Stock Markets Events

Goldman Sachs Shatters Records with Best-Ever Stock Trading Quarter, Surpassing Profit Estimates

Goldman Sachs has reported its most successful trading quarter in history, with equity-trading revenue reaching a record-breaking $4.3 billion for the second quarter. This exceptional performance has propelled the investment bank's profits beyond market expectations.

Stock Futures Dip as Rate Cut Hopes Fade and Inflation Worries Persist

S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures slip as investors reassess expectations for interest rate cuts amid inflation concerns.

Wall Street Giants Beat Earnings Expectations on Strong Trading and Wealth Management

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley exceed earnings estimates. Morgan Stanley's profit rises, boosted by strong trading and wealth management performance in a volatile quarter.

Geopolitics Events

Trump Denies Imminent Firing of Fed Chair Powell, Markets Whipsaw Amid Conflicting Reports

In a dramatic turn of events, President Donald Trump has sparked market chaos and speculation about the future of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The day began with reports from CBS News that Trump had asked Republican lawmakers if he should fire Powell, indicating to allies that he intended to do so. This was followed by a Bloomberg report citing a White House official who claimed Trump was likely to fire Powell "soon."

U.S. Producer Prices Cool Unexpectedly, Industrial Production Surges

The latest U.S. economic data reveals a significant cooling in producer price inflation, with the June Producer Price Index (PPI) falling to 2.3% year-over-year, below expectations of 2.5% and the previous month's 2.6%. This marks the lowest annual pace since September 2024, indicating a continued easing of inflationary pressures in the production sector.

Oil Prices Slide on Unexpected Fuel Stock Build, Trump Pushes for Lower Prices

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly report, revealing a surprising draw in crude oil inventories. However, this was overshadowed by unexpected increases in gasoline and distillate stocks. The news caused oil prices to slip for the third consecutive day, with both U.S. and Brent crude futures dropping.

Trump Secures GOP Support for Crypto Bills, Sparking Market Rally

President Trump's crypto bills faced initial resistance from House Republicans, but the situation has rapidly evolved. Rep. French Hill announced strong bipartisan support for the proposed crypto market structure bill, signaling a shift in political dynamics.

Trump Shakes Up Global Trade and Ukraine Policy, Threatening Pharma Tariffs and Reversing Weapons Stance

In a flurry of developments, President Donald Trump has taken center stage in international affairs and trade negotiations. A potential meeting of Patriot owner nations and Ukraine donors is set for next week, aiming to secure additional air defense batteries for Kyiv. This comes as Putin remains undeterred by Trump's presidency, with concerns that Russia could seize more Ukrainian territory.

Trump Escalates Trade Tensions with New Tariff Announcements, EU Prepares Retaliation

President Trump has announced a series of new tariff measures, signaling an escalation in his trade policy. He stated that tariffs "possibly slightly above 10%" will be imposed on smaller economies, with official notifications to be sent out soon. Additionally, Trump confirmed that tariffs will take effect on August 1, and a deal has been reached.

Trump Teases Possible New Deal with India, Promises "Good Deals" Ahead

President Trump hints at a potential new deal with India, sparking speculation about future economic or diplomatic engagements.

Trump's Cryptocurrency Gets Green Light for Trading

Token holders of Trump's World Liberty Financial cryptocurrency have approved trading for the digital asset. The vote allows the crypto tokens to become tradable, marking a significant development for the cryptocurrency associated with the former president.

US Moves to Ban Chinese Tech in Submarine Cables

The United States is preparing to implement a ban on Chinese technology in submarine cables, according to reports from the Financial Times.

Trump and Qatari Emir to Discuss Gaza Ceasefire and U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks

President Trump is set to meet with Qatar's Emir on Wednesday to discuss crucial diplomatic matters. The agenda includes ongoing negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire deal and potential efforts to restart U.S.-Iran talks for a new nuclear agreement.

Trump Dismisses Epstein Case Discussions, Calls Proponents "Stupid People"

President Trump lashes out at those discussing the Epstein case, labeling it a "hoax" and calling them "stupid people."

Iran's Supreme Leader Threatens Greater Retaliation, Accuses U.S. of Aiding Israel

Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has made a series of provocative statements, escalating tensions in the region. He declared Iran's readiness to respond to any renewed military attack, claiming the ability to inflict greater damage on adversaries than seen in the recent Iran-Israel conflict.

Trump Unveils Global Tariff Strategy, Confirms Japan Tariff, and Announces Indonesia Trade Deal

President Trump has announced plans to notify over 150 countries about upcoming tariff rates, signaling an aggressive trade strategy. He confirmed the US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japan, despite earlier speculation of a new deal.

Trump Hosts Bahrain PM for High-Stakes Trade Talks at White House

President Trump welcomes Bahrain's Prime Minister to the White House for talks on trade and strategic partnerships. The meeting, highlighted by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is expected to yield $17 billion in U.S. deals.

U.S. and Syria Agree on Steps to End Conflict as Syrian Forces Urged to Withdraw

The U.S. State Department urges Syrian government forces to withdraw from a flashpoint area to enable de-escalation.

Trump Signs Fentanyl Bill, Speculates on China's Response; Tariff Plans Loom

President Trump signs legislation strengthening penalties for fentanyl trafficking, calling it a "historic step toward justice." He speculates China may impose the death penalty for fentanyl production.

Trump Slams Republicans Demanding Epstein File Release

President Trump lashes out at Republicans demanding the release of Jeffrey Epstein-related documents. He calls these supporters "weaklings" and "stupid people."

USTR Greer Touts Trump's Tariffs, Targets Trade Deficit Reduction

US Trade Representative Greer reports China's cumulative tariff rate at 55%. He praises Trump's expanded tariff program for boosting industrial investment in the US.

Kremlin Prioritizes Ukraine Weapons Issue as Trump Issues Ultimatum to Russia

The Kremlin has placed weapon supplies to Ukraine high on its agenda, describing U.S. involvement as "business." While no phone call with President Trump is currently planned, the Kremlin states it can be organized quickly if needed.

German Finance Minister Cautions: Trump's Tariffs Equally Perilous for US and European Economies

German Finance Minister Klingbeil warns that Trump's tariffs pose equal risks to both US and European economies. He emphasizes the importance of European sovereignty and the need for Europe to defend its interests during uncertain times.

Bahrain Crown Prince Pledges $17 Billion in U.S. Investments During White House Meeting

Bahrain's Crown Prince Salman met with President Trump at the White House, pledging $17 billion in new U.S. investments. The commitment includes potential Boeing jet orders and underscores Bahrain's role as a key U.S. ally in the Middle East.

Coca-Cola Agrees to Use Real Cane Sugar in US Coke Products After Trump Talks

President Trump announces breakthrough in discussions with Coca-Cola.

Swiss-US Trade Deal Hangs on Trump's Approval, Bern Confirms

Swiss officials approved a draft trade deal with the US nearly two weeks ago. The Swiss government confirms they are continuing talks while awaiting President Trump's sign-off on the agreement.

Macro Events

Trump Denies Imminent Firing of Fed Chair Powell, Markets Whipsaw Amid Conflicting Reports

In a dramatic turn of events, President Donald Trump has sparked market chaos and speculation about the future of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The day began with reports from CBS News that Trump had asked Republican lawmakers if he should fire Powell, indicating to allies that he intended to do so. This was followed by a Bloomberg report citing a White House official who claimed Trump was likely to fire Powell "soon."

UK Inflation Surges Beyond Expectations, Core CPI Hits 3.7%

UK inflation surged in June, surpassing expectations across multiple indicators. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.6% year-over-year, up from 3.4% in May. Core CPI climbed to 3.7%, while services CPI held steady at 4.7%.

Indonesia Cuts Interest Rates and Secures US Trade Deal Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

In a significant development, Indonesia's central bank, Bank Indonesia, has cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%. This decision comes in the wake of US President Donald Trump's announcement of a 19% tariff on goods from Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy. The rate cut is aimed at shoring up growth and supporting the economy in light of these new trade challenges.

Italian and Eurozone Trade Balances Surge, UK Inflation Ticks Up

Italy's trade balance for May significantly exceeded expectations, reaching €6.163B compared to the forecast of €2.870B. The EU trade balance also improved to €0.78B from €0.16B.

Producer Prices Stagnate in June, Hinting at Possible Inflation Cool-Down

U.S. producer prices remained unchanged in June, following a 0.3% gain in May. This flat reading surprised analysts who expected a 0.2% increase.

Trump Escalates Trade Tensions with New Tariff Announcements, EU Prepares Retaliation

President Trump has announced a series of new tariff measures, signaling an escalation in his trade policy. He stated that tariffs "possibly slightly above 10%" will be imposed on smaller economies, with official notifications to be sent out soon. Additionally, Trump confirmed that tariffs will take effect on August 1, and a deal has been reached.

ASML Stock Tumbles on 2026 Growth Warning Amid Tariff Concerns

ASML, the world's largest supplier of chip-making equipment, faces a stock slump despite strong Q2 bookings. The company warns of potential stagnation in 2026 sales growth, rattling investors.

Traders Ramp Up Bets on Fed Rate Cuts as Interest-Rate Futures Climb

Short-term US interest-rate futures are rising as traders increase their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Fed Beige Book Shows Slight Economic Growth Amid Cautious Outlook

The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report reveals a mixed economic landscape across the United States. Economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July, with five districts reporting modest gains, five showing flat activity, and two experiencing declines.

Fed Official Signals Inflation Concerns, Tariff Effects May Linger

Fed's Bostic warns of potential inflation pressures, citing recent CPI data. He suggests the U.S. may be at an inflation inflection point.

USTR Greer Touts Trump's Tariffs, Targets Trade Deficit Reduction

US Trade Representative Greer reports China's cumulative tariff rate at 55%. He praises Trump's expanded tariff program for boosting industrial investment in the US.

House Republicans to Meet Powell, Monetary Policy Tensions in Focus

Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee are set to meet with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tonight from 6:00 to 7:30 p.m.

Bond Markets Fluctuate Amid Mixed Inflation Signals and Political Uncertainty

Japan's super-long bonds rebounded on Wednesday after a recent sell-off, while global markets grapple with inflation concerns. Bond bears and US dollar bulls are leading the charge as inflation expectations surge. However, a US CPI miss triggered confusing reactions across equities and bonds.

German Finance Minister Cautions: Trump's Tariffs Equally Perilous for US and European Economies

German Finance Minister Klingbeil warns that Trump's tariffs pose equal risks to both US and European economies. He emphasizes the importance of European sovereignty and the need for Europe to defend its interests during uncertain times.

Indonesia Projects Cautious Lending Growth as Trump Pushes for Fed Rate Cuts

Indonesia's central bank governor reports cautious lending practices affecting credit supply, with 2025 loan growth projected at 8-11%. Banks received 376 trillion rupiah in liquidity incentives by early July.

House Speaker Calls for New Federal Reserve Leadership

House Speaker Johnson has called for new leadership at the Federal Reserve, stating that it "would be helpful."

GOP Senator Warns Against Firing Fed Chair, Cites Credibility Concerns

US Senate Republican Banking Committee Member Thom Tillis warns against dismissing the Federal Reserve Chair over economic decisions.

South African Retail Sales Show Modest Growth, Miss Expectations

South African retail sales increased by 4.2% year-on-year in May, slightly below estimates of 4.5%. Month-on-month sales growth slowed to 0.1% from April's revised 1.1%.

MIsc Events

Israel Launches Multiple Strikes on Syrian Targets, Warns of Further Escalation

Israeli forces have launched a series of attacks on Syrian targets, escalating tensions in the region. An airstrike hit Syria's Defense Ministry in Damascus, according to Syrian security sources. The Israeli military confirmed striking the entrance gate of the Syrian military headquarters in the capital.

EU Unveils Landmark €2 Trillion Budget Proposal with Major Shifts in Spending Priorities

The European Union has unveiled a groundbreaking draft budget proposal for 2028-2034, totaling nearly €2 trillion. This ambitious plan, described by EU Commission President Von Der Leyen as a "Budget for a New Era," reflects significant shifts in priorities and funding allocations.

EU Commission Proposes €2 Trillion Budget with Focus on Defense and Competitiveness

The European Commission has unveiled a proposal for a €2 trillion EU budget for 2028-2034. Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin announced the plan, which emphasizes economic competitiveness and defense spending.

Tempus Gains FDA Clearance for AI Heart Monitoring Software, Stock Rises

Tempus ($TEM) receives FDA 510(k) clearance for its ECG-Low EF software, an AI tool flagging patients 40+ at risk of low ejection fraction.

MP Materials Launches Major Stock Offering Following Apple Partnership

MP Materials announces a $500 million public offering of common stock.

KKR Eyes Acquisition of Italian Health-Tech Firm GPI

KKR, the buyout firm, is exploring a potential acquisition of GPI, an Italian health-care technology company.

Earnings Events

Johnson & Johnson Beats Q2 Expectations, Raises Full-Year Outlook

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported its Q2 2025 earnings, surpassing analyst expectations. The company's revenue reached $23.74B, a 5.8% increase year-over-year, beating estimates of $22.86B. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.77, exceeding the forecast of $2.68, despite a 1.8% decline from the previous year.

Morgan Stanley Beats Q2 Estimates, Boosted by Record Stock Trading and Wealth Management Growth

Morgan Stanley reports impressive Q2 earnings, beating estimates with a 6% year-over-year revenue increase to $16.79 billion. The financial giant's success is driven by strong performances in wealth management and trading.

Wall Street Giants Beat Earnings Expectations on Strong Trading and Wealth Management

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley exceed earnings estimates. Morgan Stanley's profit rises, boosted by strong trading and wealth management performance in a volatile quarter.

Markets Fluctuate as Investors Digest Earnings, Inflation Data, and ASML's Warning

Stock futures slipped as investors awaited more bank earnings and inflation data. Expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts were dialed back amid higher inflation concerns.

ADTRAN Stock Soars on Strong Preliminary Q2 Revenue

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. reports preliminary Q2 2025 revenue exceeding guidance.

United Airlines Faces Headwinds as Q2 Revenue Misses Mark, Travel Spending Slows

United Airlines reports Q2 results, with revenue missing estimates and profit matching or slightly beating expectations. The company's outlook indicates lower-than-anticipated profits due to a decline in travel spending.

Oil And Gas Events

Oil Prices Slide on Unexpected Fuel Stock Build, Trump Pushes for Lower Prices

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly report, revealing a surprising draw in crude oil inventories. However, this was overshadowed by unexpected increases in gasoline and distillate stocks. The news caused oil prices to slip for the third consecutive day, with both U.S. and Brent crude futures dropping.

Drone Strikes Kurdistan Oil Fields; Iran Seizes Foreign Tanker for Fuel Smuggling

A drone attack has been reported on DNO-operated oil fields in Iraq's Kurdistan, according to the Kurdistan Counter-Terrorism Service.

U.S. Crude Stocks Plummet While Gasoline and Distillate Inventories Surge, Defying Expectations

The latest EIA report reveals significant shifts in U.S. oil inventories. Crude oil stocks dropped by 3.859 million barrels, surpassing expectations of a 1.8 million barrel decrease. This decline was more pronounced than the previous week's 7.070 million barrel increase.

TotalEnergies Projects Production Increase as India Explores LNG Deal with Alaska

TotalEnergies expects hydrocarbon production to hit the midpoint of its Q2 guidance, with a 2.5% increase. Meanwhile, India's GAIL is in initial talks for a long-term LNG deal with Alaska LNG, highlighting India's growing energy needs.

Oil Demand Holds Steady Despite China's Slowing CPI; TotalEnergies Expects Production Boost

China's July CPI slows, but oil demand remains steady as refiners tap surplus. French oil major TotalEnergies anticipates a 2.5% increase in hydrocarbon production for Q2 2025.

Global Oil Market Sees Mixed Signals as Indonesia Inks U.S. Energy Deal and China Boosts Refinery Output

Indonesia's Pertamina has signed MOUs with U.S. companies to optimize feedstock and explore potential collaborations in the refinery sector. This marks a significant development in international energy trade.

Drone Strike on Kurdish Oilfield Prompts Production Suspension

A drone attack targeted an oilfield in Iraqi Kurdistan, reportedly operated by a US firm. In response, the Association of Petroleum Industry of Iraq's Kurdistan (APIKUR) announced that most member companies have suspended production.

Fixed Income And Interest Rates Events

Indonesia Cuts Interest Rates and Secures US Trade Deal Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

In a significant development, Indonesia's central bank, Bank Indonesia, has cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%. This decision comes in the wake of US President Donald Trump's announcement of a 19% tariff on goods from Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy. The rate cut is aimed at shoring up growth and supporting the economy in light of these new trade challenges.

Traders Ramp Up Bets on Fed Rate Cuts as Interest-Rate Futures Climb

Short-term US interest-rate futures are rising as traders increase their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Bond Markets Fluctuate Amid Mixed Inflation Signals and Political Uncertainty

Japan's super-long bonds rebounded on Wednesday after a recent sell-off, while global markets grapple with inflation concerns. Bond bears and US dollar bulls are leading the charge as inflation expectations surge. However, a US CPI miss triggered confusing reactions across equities and bonds.

Crypto Events

Trump Secures GOP Support for Crypto Bills, Sparking Market Rally

President Trump's crypto bills faced initial resistance from House Republicans, but the situation has rapidly evolved. Rep. French Hill announced strong bipartisan support for the proposed crypto market structure bill, signaling a shift in political dynamics.

House Narrowly Advances Landmark Crypto Bills, Setting Stage for Major Regulatory Shift

In a significant development for cryptocurrency regulation, the U.S. House of Representatives has narrowly passed a procedural vote on a package of crypto bills. The vote, which ended 215-211, clears the way for further consideration of three key pieces of legislation: the Crypto Genius Act, the Clarity Act, and the Anti-CBDC Act.

Bitcoin Holds Strong Above $118K, Analysts Eye Potential Alt Season and Further Gains

Bitcoin's price action is capturing the crypto world's attention today. The leading cryptocurrency is holding strong above its 21-day moving average after hitting a new all-time high. Analysts suggest that maintaining this level could lead to further upward movement, while a break below might trigger a correction.

Bitmine Shares Surge as Thiel's Fund Discloses Major Stake; Bitcoin ETFs See Massive Inflows

Peter Thiel's Founders Fund reveals a 9.1% stake in Bitmine, an Ether treasury company. The news sparks a surge in Bitmine shares, jumping 15-17.9% in pre-market trading.

Trump's Cryptocurrency Gets Green Light for Trading

Token holders of Trump's World Liberty Financial cryptocurrency have approved trading for the digital asset. The vote allows the crypto tokens to become tradable, marking a significant development for the cryptocurrency associated with the former president.

Technology Events

Nvidia CEO Praises Chinese AI as "World-Class" Amid Chip Export Approval

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has made significant statements about AI in China, praising Chinese platforms and models as "world-class." He specifically mentioned Tencent, Deepseek, and Alibaba as examples of AI-powered Chinese platforms.

ASML Surpasses Q2 Expectations Amid AI-Driven Demand, Cautions on Future Outlook

Dutch tech giant ASML reports higher Q2 net profits compared to last year, with bookings beating estimates. The surge is attributed to increased demand for chip-making machines driven by the AI boom.

China Tackles EV Industry Competition as Tesla Expands Product Line

China's State Council, chaired by Premier Li Qiang, convened to address the electric vehicle (EV) industry's competitive landscape. The cabinet unveiled plans to boost EV demand and regulate "irrational" competition in the auto sector.

Tesla Unveils Plans for Six-Seater Model Y L in Chinese Market

Tesla has registered plans for a new six-seater Model Y L in China, according to industry ministry filings.

OpenAI Introduces Shopping Feature in ChatGPT, Eyes Revenue Boost

OpenAI is set to monetize ChatGPT by taking a cut from direct purchases made through the platform.

OpenAI Expands Cloud Partnerships, Taps Google for ChatGPT Infrastructure

OpenAI announces a significant partnership with Google Cloud to power ChatGPT in multiple countries. While Microsoft remains a key partner, OpenAI expands its infrastructure support to include Google, CoreWeave, and Oracle to meet increasing computational demands.

Google Unveils Advanced AI Enhancements for Search with Gemini 2.5 Pro

Google is enhancing its search capabilities with Gemini 2.5 Pro, an advanced AI model. The update includes new features like Deep Search and an AI-powered business calling function.

Musk's xAI Explores Data Center Deal in Saudi Arabia

Elon Musk's xAI is reportedly in talks with Saudi firm Humain to lease data center capacity in Saudi Arabia.

Supermicro Unveils Powerful 4-Socket Servers with Intel Xeon 6 Processors

Supermicro ($SMCI) launches advanced 4-socket X14 servers powered by Intel Xeon 6 processors.

Metals Events

Canada Tightens Steel Import Restrictions, Targets Chinese-Origin Products

Canada has announced significant changes to its steel import policies. The country plans to impose a 100% tariff-rate quota on steel imports from free trade partners in 2024, excluding the U.S. For non-free trade agreement countries, the quota will be reduced from 100% to 50% of 2024 volumes.

Environment Events

Trump and Qatari Emir to Discuss Gaza Ceasefire and U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks

President Trump is set to meet with Qatar's Emir on Wednesday to discuss crucial diplomatic matters. The agenda includes ongoing negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire deal and potential efforts to restart U.S.-Iran talks for a new nuclear agreement.

Diageo Seeks New CEO Amid Challenging Business Climate

Diageo initiates search for new CEO to replace Debra Crew.

Transportation Secretary Pushes for $19 Billion Air Traffic Control Upgrade

U.S. Transportation Secretary Duffy urges Congress to approve an additional $19 billion for air traffic control revamp.

Corporate Actions Events

Renault Shares Nosedive as Company Cuts Margin Guidance and Names Interim CEO

Renault shares plummet by 16-17% following a downgrade in guidance.

HDFC Bank Shares Surge as Board Mulls Bonus Issue and Special Dividend

HDFC Bank, India's largest private sector lender, announces plans to consider its first-ever bonus share issue and a special interim dividend.

Bit Digital's WhiteFiber Files for Nasdaq IPO

WhiteFiber Inc., Bit Digital's HPC unit, files for an initial public offering.

Real Estate Events

Starwood Property Trust Unveils $2.2B Acquisition and Stock Offering Plans

Starwood Property Trust announces acquisition of Fundamental Income Properties for $2.2 billion. The company also reveals plans for a public offering of common stock.

Canadian Housing Starts Surprise with Unexpected Rise in June

Canadian housing starts unexpectedly increased by 0.4% in June 2025, reaching 283,700 units.

Healthcare Events

Sarepta Slashes Workforce and Shifts Focus After Gene Therapy Setback

Sarepta Therapeutics announces a major restructuring plan following patient deaths in its gene therapy program.

Explore more at MarketFlux

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SqueezeFinder - July 16th 2025

https://preview.redd.it/1o9rikr7n8df1.png?width=2148&format=png&auto=webp&s=8225ad95f38c120806fda8be5fa620683527eca2

https://preview.redd.it/714kep68n8df1.png?width=935&format=png&auto=webp&s=27eed96bcbafc9855e6250de4dff4308a6c05a4d

Good morning, SqueezeFinders!

Another day, another new all-time high for the $QQQ tech index, having peaked intraday at 560.8 before closing the session at 556.72 (+0.09%). It is still unbelievably biased in favor of bulls in this market, with no near-term threat until the bears eventually try to force a retest of 540 (old all-time highs/résistance) as new support. If it breaks, we could see some trouble down to 525-520, but even then still we are only a few % from all-time highs. Several economic data releases today will serve as contributory broader market directional sentiment determinants. The PPI and Industrial Production could both have an influence on sentiment in premarket, so keep an eye for a better idea of how the intraday session will progress. Bitcoin still sharply elevated near recent new all-time highs at ~$117.3k/coin, while Gold trades for ~$3,330/oz. Regardless of broader market environment, you can locate relative strength by tapping/clicking on the column headers to sort the live watchlist in descending order of whichever data metric is important to you.

Today's economic data releases are:

🇺🇸 PPI (Jun) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Core PPI (Jun) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Industrial Production (Jun) @ 9:15AM ET
🇺🇸 Fed Supervision Vice Chair Barr Speaks @ 10AM ET
🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Beige Book @ 2PM ET
🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams Speaks @ 4:30PM ET

📙Breakdown point: BELOW this price, the move will lose momentum significantly in the short-term, as shorts will gain confidence encouraging them to short more. Reducing probability of a squeeze without a catalyst.

📙Breakout point: ABOVE this price, the move will gain momentum significantly in the short-term, as shorts losses will increase pressuring them to cover. Increasing the probability of a squeeze occurring, especially if with a catalyst.

  1. $RCAT
    Squeezability Score: 59%
    Juice Target: 20.9
    Confidence: 🍊 🍊 🍊
    Price: 10.27 (-0.58%)
    Breakdown point: 8.0
    Breakout point: 11.3
    Mentions (30D): 2
    Event/Condition: Potentially imminent long-term uptrend resumption + Medium-term downtrend bullish reversal + Massive rel vol spike after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth calls for drone production surge (Drone restrictions lifted) + Company closed $46.75M registered direct offering on June 18th + Company put out a press release stating they support Executive Orders to strengthen U.S. drone manufacturing + in late May, company partnered with ESAero to support Black Widow manufacturing + Cup & handle technical pattern potentially playing out on daily time-frame.

  2. $ASTS
    Squeezability Score: 56%
    Juice Target: 79.0
    Confidence: 🍊 🍊 🍊
    Price: 51.12 (+6.81%)
    Breakdown point: 42.0
    Breakout point: 54.1
    Mentions (30D): 5
    Event/Condition: Massive rel vol spike after speculation of Jeff Bezos investment begins following Instagram post + Recent price target 🎯 of $47.9 from Scotiabank + Company recently gained FCC approval for testing with AT&T and Verizon + Company recently landed $43 million contract in support of US Space Development Agency through prime contractor + Vodafone and AST SpaceMobile sign agreement to create European Direct-to-Device Satellite Service Provider + Recent price target 🎯 of $38 from UBS + Recent price target 🎯 of $38 from Barclays + Company set to join the Russell 1000 Index + Company recently landed $550M financing commitment + Company secures path to 45 MHz mid-band spectrum for direct-to-device service in North America + Shares rocket on partnership with Indian Telecom (Vodafone) + Recent price target 🎯 of $59 from Clear Street + Company recently secured additional $100M of liquidity from non-dilutive equipment financing.

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Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Lore Timeline (WW3, 2031 - 2039) ~ 25 minute read

Hey dudes. This post is lore entirely within the third world war (hey, that rhymed!). Not all of this is exactly finalised, and some of the details are admittedly vague, but its what I've been working off of.

                                     War*

2031:

The United States military conducts a drone strike on a major arms deal meeting in Iran. Intelligence, supplied by Israel, showed that numerous high ranking generals would be in attendance. What it didn't show was that the supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei was also in attendance. His death sparked weeks of mourning in the county. He is succeeded by his son, 24 year old Mohammad Bagher Khamenei, who is determined to avenge his father's death in a show of Iranian strength. A month after the US drone strike, Iran begins a military blockade of the strait of Hormuz, backed by a Houthi blockade of the red sea and Hamas splinter groups launching missiles at the Suez Canal. With the economy in freefall, the Saudi navy attempted to reopen the blockade with force. Iran begins ballistic missile attacks on Saudi cities. Attacks on numerous oil refineries cause the Trans-Arabian Pipeline to begin burning out of control. America withdrew its Naval presence from the South China Sea and deployed them across all points of the blockade, in the East Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. By the grace of Allah, Iran manages to sink the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower days after it was deployed near the Iranian coast, using Russian supplied anti-ship missiles. After this show of weakness, the Chinese military confidently began a multi-front invasion of Taiwan, beginning in December of 2031. Citizens of the world wake to find World War Three retroactively declared two months prior.

Mossad feeds faux information to the US military concerning a meeting between a Russian Nuclear scientist and a leading Iranian general. Although aware that the Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei would be in attendance, the Israeli delegation conveniently removes this detail in their memo to the United States, urging them to assassinate the general. The unpopular President Ocasio-Cortez and her administration leap at the idea, hoping some Neoliberal flare will help with the opinion polls. Relying on Israeli intelligence, an American drone strikes the meeting center in the south of the country. The Supreme Leader is killed instantly. Mojtaba Khamenei wasn't exactly a popular figure, and in his four years of leadership had enacted a paranoid purge, killing or incarcerating anyone who could likely hold the position over him. This meant that upon his early death, there was no clear successor. Gripped with turmoil, both domestic and, now, foreign, the Iranian government quickly instated Muhammed Khamenei, Mojtaba's 24 year old son, as interim leader before a candidate is sorted out from the upper clerical echelons. This is done so in an attempt to preserve the validity of the regime's structure at a time when many call for its end. Muhammed, however, has other plans. Abusing his new-found power, he consolidates control over the IRG and commands a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This is followed by the Houthi blockade of the red sea, and Hamas cells within the Sinai peninsular attempting to blockade the Suez canal. An American aircraft carrier is sent to sail through the strait as a show of US might, planning on ending the blockade without firing a single shot. The ship finds itself cornered within a newly deployed mine field, and over the next 8 hours, is met with waves of small boat attacks and missile fire. It eventually sinks, with most of the crew being taken hostage and used as attempted leverage against the United States. The following domino effect leads to Iranian military action in Saudi Arabia and American deployment in the middle east and South China Sea. World War Three begins.

The British government begins hardening the Irish-UK border, claiming it is a backdoor for illegal immigration, drug trade and human trafficking into the country.

Artemis X landed a 4 man crew on the Moon. The crew lived in the partially constructed habitat for a planned 180 days. The Third World War breaks out while they are up there. The mission was aborted on day 82. The landing shuttle was struck with a surface-to-air missile while over the South China Sea, killing everyone on board.

19 year old Karakozov, just a few months into his sentence, is dragged from his cell and forcefully conscripted. He's sent to the front line just one week later.

Aamer Sarfraz sets up the Islamic Interests Party in the UK.

100,000 Hezbollah soldiers, recruited from both Shia, Sunni and Christians communities (but still majority Shiite) cross over the Lebanese border. Attempting to take entire towns hostages, and free interned Palestinians from the Northern Camps, the brigade slaughters their way through IDF bases and hamlets. Tens of thousands die in the first four weeks, and Hezbollah forces reach as far into Israel as the Northern tip of the West Bank.

As the PJP becomes the leading opposition party in Britain, many Labour MPs either defect, join the LibDems or retire.

As the different factions begin targeting each other's satellites, the countries start preparing for the real possibility of a large-scale Kessler Syndrome event.

PJP councillors help organise what amounted to the second largest general strike in British history, as 1.5 million workers from varying industries walkout. This brings the country to its knees for a week and a half, with both sides refusing to bend the knee. Prisons are overwhelmed as the police commit to mass arrests of striking workers and trade union leaders. Some are sent to refugee camps to deal with the glut. Around the country, thousands are injured in the ensuing clashes with law enforcement and riots. 14 are killed, although the news heavily suppresses details. Eventually, as public opinion begins to turn violently against the workers, the strike leaders agree to stand down. Farage not only uses this as an excuse to rally against the PJP, but also to bring in sweeping crackdowns and outright bans against trade unions. The general strike cost 5.5 billion pounds in disruption.

After almost 10 long years of war, Russian forces finally take Kiev as NATO's resources begin to drain elsewhere. The southern and eastern parts of the country are annexed, cutting off Ukraine's access to the coast. A Russian puppet is planted as the new leader of the Ukrainian state as Zelenskyy, still the internationally recognised president of Ukraine, flees with his family to Paris.

Supermarkets across the country face food shortages as the inflation rate reaches a 40 year high.

Gasoline prices in the US hit $15 a gallon.

Bitcoin hits $200,000.

Iran begins buying off Saudi clerics, demanding they call on their followers to stop fighting.

Japan becomes the first country in the world to deploy artificial blood for real-world medical care.

Russia breaks the 2026 ceasefire and troops move over the border into Ukraine. Shortly after this, the Russian military occupies the Suwalki gap, cutting the Baltic States off from the rest of Europe. Lithuania triggers Article 5 of NATO. Across Europe, troops mobilise. A few days later, on the 1st of January 2032, the doomsday clock is set to 59 seconds to midnight. The closest it's ever been since it's creation in 1947.

2032:

Eli Crane is elected* 49th President of the United States, exploiting his military past as incumbent President Ocasio-Cortez poorly handles the landing in Taiwan.

Tom Lehrer dies at the age of 104

Chinese Americans face constant racial discrimination. Restaurants are firebombed and citizens believed to be "chinese spies" are attacked in the streets.

Food shortages and unemployment soar in Peru. Government begins heavily militarising the country to maintain order.

The UN merged Unesco with a wing of the peacekeepers to be sent out to heritage sites engulfed in war zones to make sure they weren't harmed. These armed conservationists were given shoot-to-kill orders for any threats to human culture.

Japanese soldiers were deployed in the Korean peninsula to help the South against the onslaught of the DPRK. Dozens of Japanese soldiers were killed by their supposed allies in the South Korean army in "revenge" killings for the crimes their ancestors committed a hundred years prior.

Crude oil prices have skyrocketed to $400 per barrel. The resulting fires from the targeting of Saudi Arabian Oil refineries and the burning of the Tapline releases more tonnage of CO² into the atmosphere in a few months than the first decade of the 21st century.

Major cyberattacks cripple financial systems in the U.S. and Europe, attributed to Chinese and Russian hacking groups.

The mass uprisings in the West Bank destroy settler communities, killing entire colonies and burning them to the ground. The IDF uses napalm in an attack on Ramallah. The Ramallah siege murders over 15,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, in just two weeks.

The middle class shrinks as businesses relying on transportation; logistics, aviation, shipping — collapse. Unemployment hits double digits globally.

America enacts a total military blockade on Cuba.

A 7.5 magnitude earthquake strikes near Tirana, Albania, leaving 200,000 homeless. Tens of thousands of Albanian refugees flee to the United Kingdom.

Mao Tianyi joins the CCP.

Germany joins the war effort on the side of Nato. A Wartime Unity Government is formed from the Greens, SPD, CDU/CSU; FDP(although they are not in parliament they still help); The Pro Russian BSW and AfD do not join. Germany Instituted mandatory conscription for all citizens aged 18-45, regardless of gender.

The pro-Putin Christian Orthodox militant biker gang "Night Wolves" begins taking up arms across Europe, targeting people at random to spread terror at home.

Estonia and Latvia demand U.S. security guarantees as Russian aircraft violate airspace daily.

Russian hypersonic missile strikes and destroys the London Broadcasting House (BBC hq)

Jungkook is killed in a North Korean airstrike.

Russian troops enter Latvia and Estonia.

2033:

Fearing a Chinese land invasion, the Japanese war government armed the general population, with the help of the United States. Guns are airdropped into coastal communities.

Ardent militarist, hardline Republican and American exceptionalist, newly elected President Eli Crane announces a strange revelation. His claim? That a Mossad-affiliated group was operating a blackmailing racket in the US, and had been since the 1970s. Their express goal was to entrench US foreign policy in a deeply pro-Israel position. His source? A quote “anonymous informant within the CIA”.

President Crane rushed security bill after security bill through the house and senate, each including the mountingò legislature that gave him more power.

Notorious porn artist "Shadman" is killed in a ICBM strike

US President Eli Crane reinstates the imperial system in America

Research funding for artificial organs quintuples, the demand growing dramatically on the backdrop of the Third world war

While the rest of the world is embroiled in the conflict of the 3rd world war, the mostly neutral (although Eastern faction-leaning) Brazil begins its own internal war. Brazil begins rounding up gang members without trail, declaring Martial law and sending the full force of the military into the most effected communities. Over the next few years, the country rounds up over 550,000 "criminals", confining them to expansive and isolated prison camps. The Brazilian government never intended to incarcerate the convicted. Instead, they staged mass executions, mostly by firing squad. The army executes over 500,000 in the space of 5 years, including some as young as 12 years of age. The cartel members who survived and escaped the country flooded into the south, setting their operations up once again mostly in Argentina, in cities like Rosario and Buenos Aires.

Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles strike Kadena Air Base, destroying over 70% of U.S. aircraft on the ground and severely damaging naval assets in the surrounding waters.

Heating oil shortages hit hard during winter, leaving millions freezing in the Northern Hemisphere. In the U.K., the elderly are encouraged to move into public "heat hubs" for warmth.

Xi Jinping steps down as president of China due to ill health. He appoints Chen Jining as his successor. Chen shares many of Xi's views, while also encompassing a more hardline USSResque foreign policy.

Amid the global conflict, the Cabo Delgado insurgency of Mozambique declares an independent Islamic state in the north of the country. As this new nation is vehemently opposed to Chinese influence and vows to force them out of the country's natural gas industry, it is quickly recognised by the west.

The first fully automated surgery is performed on a human, removing a cyst from a woman in England.

In 2033, after years of planning and coordination, the governments of Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and Chile joined forces to create the Latin American Space Agency (AELA), a semi-private entity with the goal of promoting cooperation and the development of space technologies in the region. With headquarters in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and secondary headquarters in Mexico City, Mexico, Buenos Aires, Argentina, and Santiago, Chile, AELA was established as a center of excellence for the research and development of space technologies. The agency is composed of a multidisciplinary team of experts in engineering, physics, mathematics, astronomy, and other disciplines related to space exploration. Its mission is to foster collaboration and the exchange of knowledge and technologies among member countries, with the goal of boosting the economic and social development of the region. The AELA focuses on several areas, including: - Development of satellites and navigation systems - Space exploration and astronomy - Research and development of space technologies - Education and training in space sciences - International cooperation and promotion of the Latin American space industry With the creation of the AELA, member countries seek to strengthen their position on the global space stage, promote innovation and entrepreneurship, and improve the quality of life of their citizens. The agency becomes a symbol of regional cooperation and integration, and an important step towards a more prosperous and sustainable future for Latin America.

A prolonged drought and collapsing agricultural subsidies spark widespread food shortages across Guinea-Bissau. When grain prices triple in less than six weeks, protests erupt in Bissau and quickly spread. Rioters storm warehouses, and the government imposes a curfew as looting escalates. As Ww3 rages on, few foreign nations can send aid, and can only watch at the small nation descends into famine.

2034:

US President Eli Crane partially suspended Congress and emboldened the newly established war cabinet.

Profiting immensely from the World War, Elon Musk becomes the world's first Trillionaire at age 62

In the midst of the war, the United Front for Security (UFS), a far-right coalition, wins key positions in the Peruvian Congress, promising to restore order.

The USS Gerald R Ford is sunk in the South China Sea

The martyr Huzaifa Syed, a 6 year old Pakistani boy in Kashmir, is shot dead by Indian border police. This sends shock waves through the nation as Huzaifa becomes the symbol of Islamic resistance in Pakistan. Pakistan and India are at war within the month as tens of thousands of Islamist militants cross into India, followed by the Pakistani army. Pakistan is, at this point, aware that a conventional war between the two states is nearly unwinnable. As such, they attempt to spark uprisings across India, urging Muslim citizens to take up arms against the Indian government. In many cases this succeeds. Street clashes between Hindus and Muslims in major mixed cities become a weekly, then daily occurrence

Japan declares martial law following mass protests and cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure

terrorist attacks kill on average 400 Indian civilians a month.

Chinese-backed coup in Guatemala.

AI-powered humanitarian aid predicts famine and disaster risks months in advance, reducing response time by 50%.

The Svartöga cartel is founded in Sweden. A merger of dozens of different ethnic Swedish gangs in order to combat foreign encroachment.

"Children of Dusk" sci-fi book becomes a bestseller in US and Canada.

Swiss President Marcel Dettling announces the county's intent to become nuclear capable before 2045, to ensure neutrality.

The United Kingdom closes its borders to Pakistani immigrants due to the overwhelming flood of refugees fleeing their war torn home. Soon after, mass protests began within the county, mostly in the already well established South Asian immigrant communities, such as Bradford. Off the back of this, small salafist groups in the UK begin spreading the message that the British government is actively attempting to wipe out Islam from within its borders.

2035:

Countless Republican politicians abandoned the party as Crane began to take increasingly authoritarian control over the government. Some join the Democrats, but many instead joined the Libertarian party. This influx of “moderates” created a split in the party, with the more extreme Libertarians breaking off to form the Night-watchman party.

Tamil nationalism flares up as tens of millions of Hindu Indians migrate South to avoid extreme heat and overpopulation

The US successfully retakes Okinawa, following the Chinese take-over in 2034. In this island hopping campaign, reminiscent of WW2, America loses almost 70,000 troops against China's 100,000 losses, as well as the death of well over 200,000 Japanese civilians. However, the strategic victory opens the door for an American invasion of Taiwan

Switzerland becomes Nuclear capable

"Children of Dusk" sci-fi book get banned in every country of the world except bhutan

London is engulfed in street fighting between Pakistani and Indian migrant communities. The same violence spreads to other metropolitan areas.

Bolivian troops cross the border into the northern tip of Chile, forging a sovereign corridor to the coastline and annexing territory above the river Camarones.

Pakistan breaks the US’ ruling against the country's usage of American F16s against India. The Pakistani military carry out carpet bombings of border towns, as well as against crucial infrastructure that connects India to Kashmir. Islamist terrorist become increasingly heavily armed, and Kashmir is divided into varying warlord regions as all forms of civil leadership dissolves.

China scrapes together some amount of its already thinly spread military to be sent to Aksai Chin. They clash with both India and Pakistan. During the war, a few Chinese officials voice support for Pakistan, but little to no monetary or military aid is sent. Pakistan's main supporters are Russia and Iran. India receives lethal aid from both NATO and the United States, as well as intelligence from Israel.

By late 2035, Pakistani forces are fully pushed out of Indian territory. Thousands of soldiers on both sides die from heat stroke and exhaustion as they march through the Thar desert, with temperatures reaching 53°C (127°F). Before the end of the year, India has captured Lahore after intense urban fighting. Even after the occupation begins, constant attacks from militias flood the Indian garrisons.

Pakistan uses a small yield (1kT) tactical nuclear weapon against an Indian military convoy. This escalation sends shockwaves around the war torn world, as experts claim it sets a dangerous new precedence. India strongly debates a nuclear retaliation, but finally rules against it as the explosion occurred within Pakistan's sovereign borders.

India begins extreme crackdowns on Muslim communities, using their own version of the patriot act. Mosques are raided, Islamic schools are forcefully closed and mass internment begins.

In December of 2035, the unthinkable happens. Prime minister Modi is assassinated in a suicide bombing. The perpetrators are quickly linked back to Pakistan. Yogi Adityanath is swiftly sworn in as his successor. Adityanath's new approach to dealing with the “Muslim pest” is even more heavy handed.

2036:

Crane is re-elected US president, although mass voter fraud is alleged.

India strikes covert deals with the Taliban, urging them to invade western Pakistan and promising their support. In February of 2036, the Taliban launches a massive cross-border incursion, with thousands of former Jihadists, now working desk jobs as civil servants, taking up arms once again.

Alexi Karakozov narrowly avoids being killed by a Polish sniper. He hijacks a car and makes it back to Moscow in time for the coup.

A group of top Russian generals conspired to overthrow the now senile and deranged Putin. Putin flees with his most trusted body guards to a woodland mansion compound in rural Arkhangelsk. NATO forces have pushed into Russia now, taking Smolensk, besieging St Petersburg approaching the gates of Moscow. The New Russian Army retreats to Moscow, where it begins reorganising citizens into the fortified Moscow Metro, issuing rations and basic training at the mostly German and Polish troops approach.

This semi-technocratic military tribunal takes hold of the Russia state. It reorganises the military, pulling troops continuously back from the front line. By 2036, over three million foreign troops have been mobilised. North Koreans, Chinese, Central Asians and Syrians. Most of which have no uniform and one gun.

Nikolai Valuev takes his place as the head of United Russia, although his power is neutered.

The United Kingdom closes its borders to Pakistani immigrants due to the overwhelming flood of refugees fleeing their war torn home. Soon after, mass protests began within the county, mostly in the already well established South Asian immigrant communities, such as Bradford. Off the back of this, small salafist groups in the UK begin spreading the message that the British government is actively attempting to wipe out Islam from within its borders.

The armies of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya and Tanzania act as one as they invade the DRC to secure their joint interests in the Kivu region. This action was seen as a precursor to the formation of the East African Federation as a formal state.

Liechtenstein achieves carbon neutrality, with all energy provided by solar, wind, and hydropower. The Green Cities Program transforms urban spaces with vertical gardens, eco-housing, and zero-emission transport.

The UN releases an estimate that the Iranian blockade against the world, as it came to be known, resulted in between 25 - 50 million deaths globally. Mainly due to water and food insecurity caused by supply chain collapse, as well the sheer amounts of pollution.

Alexi Karakozov leads a special task force into Putin's lair. After a night of fighting, they come across Putin's bedroom where the 83 year old man is pacing around pretending to make military commands. Karakozov shoots him in the head. The group of men pose with Putin's body like a fallen big game animal. A picture is taken, which is popularised all over Russia, with Putin being remembered by his image in the photo - a senile old man with a beard to rival Rasputin's, dressed in a pink kimono.

Over 500,000 Iranian civilians have been killed in NATO bombings of Iranian cities.

Morena candidate Marcelo Ebrard is elected as president in the Mexican elections. Mexico joins the war effort on the American side, supplying its neighbor with oil.

NASA comes under full AI leadership and administration

Alexi Karakozov is given the rank of Podpolkovnik, one of the youngest to achieve it.

France is forced to pull back troops to further impose martial law at home. France's involvement in the war grows increasingly unpopular. Riots engulf Paris and anti-Eastern European pogroms target refugee accommodation.

During the period of early 2036, the Pakistani military is in ruin. Despite this, large parts of the civilian population has reorganised itself into an effective militia. Any urban encounter for the Indian army turns into weeks long guerilla warfare.

India strikes covert deals with the Taliban, urging them to invade western Pakistan and promising their support. In February of 2036, the Taliban launches a massive cross-border incursion, with thousands of former Jihadists, now working desk jobs as civil servants, taking up arms once again.

Yogi Adityanath participates in a firing squad execution of a convicted terrorist on live TV.

Pakistani Prime Minister Hamza Shahbaz is arrested by the military, under charges of failing to protect his nation. He escapes, however, and flees to Karachi. Islamabad remains under military rule.

Taliban militants sack a Pakistani nuclear silo, stealing an undetermined amount of enriched fissile material before exporting it back to Afghanistan.

The death toll of the Pakistani military passes 1 million.

Islamic terrorist plot to bomb the Taj Mahal is foiled, but leads to a day long shoot out with police.

Hindu militias begin to organise within mixed cities in India. Muslim businesses and residential buildings are firebombed. Thousands die in mass pogroms over the course of just a few weeks in April of 2036.

The INS Vikrant is mistakenly sunk by a strike from an American nuclear submarine monitoring the coast of Iran, killing 1,428 personnel.

India enacts laws making the crime of gauhatya punishable by death when committed by Muslims, and a fine of 50 million rupees when committed by Hindus.

The death toll for the Indian military reaches 1 million.

Peace negotiations suggested by India are denied by both the Shahbaz government and the military government. This comes as India captures the city of Sargodha, marking its occupation of 30% of the country.

Hamza Shahbaz calls a covert ceasefire with the military government, and returns to Islamabad. They discuss the use of nuclear missiles, of which Pakistan still has control over 55% of their arsenal. A vote is held, which results in a 5 - 4 vote in favour of the nuclear option. On the 16th of July 2036, Pakistan fires 109 nuclear missile, between 5 and 45kT, at Indian military installations and urban areas. Most target Indian nuclear facilities in hopes of crushing the country's ability to respond. Most focus on crippling India's military and the remainder attack cities. Explosions across New Delhi, Mumbai, Lucknow and many other cities kill 34 million within the first 24 hours. 50 million more are injured, suffering severe burns with no hope of medical assistance. Yogi Adityanath immediately broadcasts a strong willed message to the nation, invoking the indomitable Hindu spirit and vowing to turn Pakistan into a charred crater.

Later on in the day, India launches a volley of 135 nuclear bombs. Some towards Pakistan's remaining military targets, but most towards cities and other civilian areas. These attacks are conducted with the express intention of causing maximum casualties, and in this task India succeeds. 92 million people are killed in the initial 24 hours following the attacks. Pakistan's population declines by 30% in one day. Karachi is entirely destroyed, following 10 separate nuclear strikes.

India's capital is moved to Varanasi, which was miraculously left unscathed after the missile targeting it misfired and landed in the Thar desert. This measure was intended to be temporary, but remains by 2064.

A rogue Pakistani general attempted to fire a nuclear bomb at Tel Aviv. It ends up landing a mile off the coast, detonating in the water. Despite this, it killed 729 and injures over 35,000. In the long term, it cripples the Israeli fishing industry.

This becomes the first real world example of a full scale nuclear war. 3 million tons of black carbon plume into the atmosphere. In the first year, the global temperature drops by 1°C. This causes a knock on effect, which leads to extreme cold snaps across Eastern Europe in the Winter of ‘36 (this had devastating effects on the NATO Invasion of Russia, but that's a story for another day). Crop yields drop by an average of 15% across the board. In the West, food supply chains come under extreme stress, but hold due to draconian rationing. This is not the case for Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia and, especially, South Asia, which experiences full scale collapse. The death toll of this famine is put at anywhere between 50 and 200 million, lasting well into the 2040s.

By 2064, India's population has recovered and even seen growth. Society has changed dramatically within the country, however, with Aghori warlords in the North and a rise of Tamil nationalism in the South, as well as dozens of other violent groups.

The same cannot be said for Pakistan. Shortly after the 2063 census, the country's native population dipped below 200 million. Pakistanis represent the largest immigrant group in the UK, as well as dozens of other countries. The Pakistani state is a puppet of India. Over 100 million Indian Muslims have been deported to Pakistan since Ww3, all of whom live in irradiated slums and bring the country's total population to what it was in 2035. Infertility is rife among these groups, with a birth rate of only 1.1 despite rampant poverty and lack of education. Cancer and birth defects are several magnitudes greater than the average, which is true also for the rest of Pakistan and parts of India. “Post-Apocalyptic” is an accurate term to describe these areas.

Militant groups, such as Aakhar, control swathes of former Pakistani territory. The Taliban remain in control of almost all Pashtun majority areas, an annexation recognised by India at first, then several other countries.

The total number of fatalities this war caused, and whether to include them as part of of the Ww3 death toll, is still debated in 2064. The range of estimates rests between 140 million and 500 million. Either way, the 5th Indo-Pak War (also referred to as The Sarvanaash, or the 1st Nuclear War) is the most destruction war in human history.

The resulting Nuclear Autumn served as a particularly interesting case study for the world's ruling class. They became convinced that a nuclear war could be winnable under the right circumstances, seeing as how death toll estimates for a hypothetical Nuclear War between India and Pakistan was wild overestimated. Despite this newfound interest in the use of nuclear weapons in conventional warfare, the post-Ww3 United Nations (reformed entirely with new, authoritarian powers) attempts to enforce denuclearisation. This, naturally, fails, although most countries commit to decreasing their yield and size of their nuclear arsenals by 50%. By 2064, global nuclear stockpiles are the same as 110 years prior.

2037:

At its peak, Iran mobilised nearly 10 million military aged men during the third world war. With such a deficit in the workforce, millions of women were given employment in factories and other sectors. This led to the second wave of modern feminism in Iran.

Tens of thousands of NATO troops freeze to death in their makeshift barracks. As supply chains falter under the Nuclear Autumn, food trucks bound to the Western Forces are raided by starving Russian civilians before they even get close.

Burkina Faso is taken over my Islamist militants. Much of the country's Christian population flee soon after, mostly to southern Nigeria.

The U.S. suffers widespread internal unrest following cyberattacks on its power grid, leading to riots in major cities.

Philippines Declares Permanent State of Emergency Due to Typhoons

In retaliation of America maintaining its war machine on Mexican oil, China backs a Zapatista Insurgency, taking the Mexican Military by surprise.

The Islamic Republic of Mozambique falls into civil war.

Russia retakes Smolensk.

Voyager 1’s final transmission is captured by the Atacama Large Millimeter Array in Chile. The data contains a brief burst of cosmic ray readings and, to the surprise of scientists, a binary checksum string. Many believe this is a secret last message, possibly sneaked in by one of the original programmers of the spacecraft, though no one can be certain. One day later, NASA releases the data publicly and holds an open funeral for the legendary spacecraft. The New York Times headlines the event with the words: “Voyager’s Last Words.” Beneath the headline, the binary string is displayed in full: 01000111011011110110111101100100011000100111100101100101001011000010000001010111011011110111001001101100011001000010111000010101

During the period following the aftermath of The Sarvanaash (Indo-Pak Nuclear War) millions of refugees from both India and Pakistan attempted to flee to the UK. The new left-wing government of Britain leads with an open border policy, allowing an unprecedented amount of migrants to enter the country over the course of just five years.

2038:

The Worker Cooperative Act is passed in Lichtenstein, promoting employee ownership of businesses and ensuring that corporations operate under strict social and environmental guidelines.

NATO forces have been almost completely pushed out of Russian territory.

Mao Tianyi is assigned deputy culture minister of China.

40 million people have been internally displaced in China.

Brazil leaves the ICC following accusations of crimes against humanity.

2039:

The Black Dragon society reformed in Japan, feeding off rampant Ultranationalism.

The Taliban becomes Nuclear capable.

The car in which Marcelo Ebrard, president of Mexico, was being transported, explodes. The government is taken over by the military, and a junta is declared.

The German wartime unity government collapses and snap elections are held. Due to public discontent with the War-managment oft the Wartime Unity Government, the AfD wins with ~39% and forms a government with the BSW, who despite being considered far left and far right, utilise their „Germany First“ agenda to establish a coalition dubbed the „Right-Left coalition."

Japan pegs its national currency to the dollar.

Peace is reached in 2039. The territory NATO took, Kaliningrad and half of Belarus, and formed into the Democratic Republic of Russia. Russia keeps much of its Ukrainian territory, however Crimea remains part of Ukraine. The Russian majority province of Latgale becomes an "independent" state (puppet of Russia) and is Russosized to Latgaliya.

The far eastern front, America and China sign the SADA (Sino-American Demilitarisation Agreement)

In the Middle East, Iran has been crippled. Any gains from the war have been retaken, although Western troops fail to invade Iranian into territory. A war weary and much changed Tehran sues for peace.

                          Peace*

When I tell you I hate my life… I really do… Facebook likes to remind me…

https://i.redd.it/8ihkiji704df1.jpeg

Monday, July 14, 2025

5 ways BTC reaches $1 Billion by June 2026

  1. Hyper-Accelerated Global Monetary Devaluation and Hyperinflation:

    • Premise: A rapid and severe global economic crisis, characterized by unprecedented levels of quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus across major economies, leading to a catastrophic loss of confidence in fiat currencies. This scenario would involve widespread hyperinflation in multiple reserve currencies, rendering traditional stores of value (e.g., government bonds, low-yield equities) effectively worthless.
    • Mechanism: As governments resort to increasingly aggressive money printing to service burgeoning national debts and fund social programs, the purchasing power of their currencies would erode at an exponential rate. Investors, institutions, and even nation-states would desperately seek an alternative, scarce, and censorship-resistant store of value.
    • Bitcoin's Role: Bitcoin's fixed supply cap (21 million) and disinflationary emission schedule (halving every ~4 years) would make it the ultimate hedge against hyperinflation. Its programmatic scarcity would be perceived as the only reliable counter to infinite fiat currency creation. In such an environment, the demand for Bitcoin would not be driven by speculative interest but by an urgent need for financial preservation, akin to a "flight to safety" on a global, systemic scale.
    • Mathematical Implication: If the global money supply (M2) in major economies (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CNY) were to expand by, say, 50-100% annually for the next year, and a significant fraction (e.g., 5-10%) of this newly created liquidity sought refuge in Bitcoin, it could theoretically drive its market cap to extreme levels. For instance, if global M2 is roughly $100T, and just 1% of this flows into BTC due to hyperinflation, that's a $1T market cap.
  2. Near-Total Institutional Adoption and Sovereign Wealth Fund Influx:

    • Premise: The complete capitulation of traditional financial institutions and sovereign wealth funds to Bitcoin as a primary reserve asset, driven by the aforementioned monetary crisis and a competitive fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) dynamic.
    • Mechanism: Following the initial institutional inroads made by spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries (e.g., MicroStrategy, various publicly traded companies), this scenario posits an aggressive, rapid pivot. Central banks, sovereign wealth funds (e.g., Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority), and major pension funds (e.g., CalPERS, CalSTRS) would begin allocating unprecedented percentages (e.g., 1-5%) of their multi-trillion-dollar portfolios to Bitcoin. This would not be a gradual adoption but a sudden, synchronized shift.
    • Catalyst: The collapse of confidence in traditional financial instruments and the proven resilience of Bitcoin during extreme market volatility would serve as the catalyst. Regulatory hurdles would be summarily dismissed or overcome by overwhelming market pressure and national security interests (preserving wealth).
    • Mathematical Implication: With global institutional assets under management (AUM) estimated in the tens of trillions (e.g., $100-200T), a mere 0.5-1% allocation to Bitcoin across these entities would represent a capital inflow of $500B to $2T, potentially pushing the market cap into the trillion-dollar range.
  3. Quantum Leap in Lightning Network Adoption and Microtransaction Utility:

    • Premise: The Lightning Network, or a similar Layer 2 scaling solution, achieves near-ubiquitous adoption for global retail payments and remittances, fundamentally transforming Bitcoin into the world's primary medium of exchange.
    • Mechanism: Significant technological breakthroughs would eliminate current friction points in Lightning (e.g., liquidity management, channel management, routing reliability). User interfaces would become so intuitive that Bitcoin transactions via Lightning would be seamless, instant, and virtually free, surpassing traditional credit card networks and even stablecoin alternatives in efficiency and reach.
    • Network Effect and Demand: This would lead to an exponential increase in Bitcoin's utility beyond just a store of value. As billions of people use Bitcoin for daily transactions, the underlying demand for the base layer asset would surge, driven by the need for channel liquidity, security, and the inherent network effect. Enterprises would integrate Lightning into their payment infrastructure, further solidifying its position.
    • Self-Reinforcing Loop: Increased utility drives increased demand for the underlying asset, which in turn fuels price appreciation, attracting more users and developers, creating a virtuous cycle.
  4. Bitcoin Halving (April 2024) and Subsequent Supply Shock:

    • Premise: The April 2024 halving event would precipitate an unprecedented and sustained supply shock, far exceeding historical price responses.
    • Mechanism: With the block subsidy decreasing from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, the daily new supply of Bitcoin would be cut in half. In a scenario of hyper-accelerated demand (as described above), this reduced issuance would clash violently with surging inflows, creating an extreme imbalance between supply and demand. Miners would hold rather than sell, further exacerbating the supply crunch.
    • Price Discovery: Traditional price discovery mechanisms would be overwhelmed. The market would be forced to reprice Bitcoin dramatically upwards to reflect its new scarcity in the face of insatiable demand. This would manifest as a "melt-up" scenario, where price gains are parabolic due to a lack of available sell-side liquidity.
  5. Global Geopolitical Realignment and Digital Asset Hegemony:

    • Premise: A significant shift in global power dynamics where nations or blocs of nations adopt Bitcoin as a de facto or de jure reserve asset and a tool for economic sovereignty, circumventing existing financial systems.
    • Mechanism: Nations facing sanctions, seeking financial independence, or simply recognizing the inevitable shift would openly embrace Bitcoin. This could include state-sponsored mining operations, large-scale Bitcoin purchases for national treasuries, and the development of national Bitcoin-backed financial products. This would be a coordinated, albeit non-public, effort among several nations.
    • Network Effect on a National Scale: The first few nations to formally integrate Bitcoin would create immense pressure on others to follow suit, leading to a geopolitical "Bitcoin arms race" where securing a significant BTC treasury becomes a matter of national economic security.