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1/ There have been tons of posts/articles describing why Bitcoin/crypto suffered the most recent breakdown happening for past week varying from: -CSW and friends selling -Hash war -Deleveraging from ICOs -Regulatory crackdown -BAKKT delay -Technical support broken
2/ FA seeks the cause of a move by studying asset or economics behind it. Example: The price of a stock, bond, derivitive, or Bitcoin moves *because* of some event or fact. Assumption: if one knows the cause one can forecast the event and manage the risk.
3/ "In the real-world, causes are usually obscure. Critical info is often unknown or unknowable. The precise market mechanism that links news to price, cause to effect, is mysterious. After the fact - it seems obvious in hindsight. FA can be reconstructed and seems brilliant."
4/ "When investors, speculators, industrialists, and bankers come together in a real market, a special, new kind of dynamic emerges - *greater* than, and *different* from, the sum of the parts." - Benoit Mendelbrot
5/The quote above is what I believe is typically the case. Both FA & TA you can always construct reasoning *after* the event, it's obvious. The third and unknowable factor is the new dynamic that emerges from behaviour, reactions, and biases.
6/ Alts have been moving higher for over a month now vs Bitcoin The majority of charts shared on twitter are setups, entries, or patterns. Exits and selling after original update are rarely discussed outside of "boom this moved 'x' %" Should you take profit, or hodl for 2x?
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