I did the math on whether the weekend drop was a "DIP" or a "CRASH" (so you don't have to)

Hi guys!

I have a short post today for once! First of all, please believe me when I say that I'm not here to scare anyone, and that WHATEVER that happened in the past DOES NOT determine the future.

I've seen some debate over whether what happened this weekend was a DIP or a CRASH. To be honest, I thought it was a dip as it was happening. I thought the word "crash" was a bit dramatic. But being a person of numbers and as a self-proclaimed connoisseur of cryptocurrency dips, I thought I'd do the math.

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log10(bitcoinUSD) from 2018-10-02 to today. Marked in red are all instances where the price fell as dramatically as this weekend. Dip scores (aka z-scores) are calculated based on volume-adjusted 2-week historical prices.

Since 2018 to today, there have only been four instances where prices saw such dramatic decrease (z-score < -5):

1. 2018-11-14 @ 16:40 UTC (local avg z-score: -8.2)
2. 2019-09-25 @ 00:22 UTC (local avg z-score: -6.7)
3. 2020-03-12 @ 12:09 UTC (local avg z-score: -5.1)
4. 2021-12-04 @ 6:01 UTC (local avg z-score: -5.3)

Most of these actions were short (done within few hours of starting), and they were somewhat followed by what seems like sustained "bear-ish" periods. What happened in May of this year was close behind @ z-score of -4.35 as well, so please keep in mind that these cut offs are pretty arbitrary.

With that said, I haven't been around for that long so if you have been around since then, please leave a comment on how the morale was back then and how you feel today post-dip/crash.

Edit: So was it a crash of a dip? HMM all I can say is that it was a very rare event. Ah I wish I can edit my title... I'm sorry.