CMV: Putin and/or Russia miscalculated — and didn't expect or forestall — all the financial sanctions and costs against them for the Russo-Ukrainian War.

This post focuses merely on the apparent financial and economic failures on Russia, not the other failures.

To change my view, please expound — and convince me that — Putin and/or Russia had expected and forecast, and provided and provisioned for, all the financial sanctions and costs against them for the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Evidence from G7 nations for my view

The Five Eyes' sanctions include — but are not limited to — suspension from the Bank for International Settlements, removal of SOME Russian banks from SWIFT, exclusion of SOME Russian banks from their financial systems, asset freezing of SOME Russian banks, and blacklisting of Russian companies.

As at March 4 2022 — "This week, Western countries also closed their airspace to Russian aircraft, blacklisted the Russian Direct Investment Fund, imposed trading restrictions and sanctions on Belarus, expanded export controls on Russia, adopted additional financial sanctions targeting Russia, and blacklisted Russian elites and their family members.". The G7 is seeking to divest from Russian imports like oil, gas, precious metals. Corporations have withdrawn from, closed, and/or stopped business in Russia.

"The United States has also targeted Belarus, whose territory Russia has used to launch its incursion into Ukraine and whose own forces recently joined the Russian siege on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv."

On March 13 2022, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva

told CBS’s Face the Nation programme: “In terms of servicing debt obligations, I can say that we no longer think of Russian default as an improbable event. Russia has the money to service its debt, but cannot access it. What I’m more concerned about is that there are consequences that go beyond Ukraine and Russia.”

Last week, the World Bank’s chief economist, Carmen Reinhart, warned that Russia and its ally Belarus were “mightily close” to default.

Evidence from Russia for my view

MOEX (Moscow Stock Exchange) has closed, and it's uncertain when it will reopen. On Feb 28 2022, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) boosted the country’s key interest rate from 9.5% to 20%.

As at March 4 2022, the EU, US, UK sanctioned the CBR by freezing the bank’s assets in their jurisdictions. As at March 8 2022, all G-7 countries moved to freeze Russia’s foreign currency reserve assets and reserves at the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and European Central Bank have been frozen..

The ruble has been crashing — on March 9 2022, 1 USD = 138 USD. even as the CBR "banned Russians from buying hard currencies and ordered banks to cap withdrawals from foreign currency accounts at $10,000 for the next six months".

These internal actions by Russia don't evidence improvements or progress!