I wanted to write down my prediction underlined with pro arguments that would make another bullrun likely for Bitcoin (altcoins excluded) if someone is interested. I want my prediction to be discussed here and want to state upfront that I am invested in Bitcoin and Ethereum since about 2017. What did I miss out. What can be considered as wrong/misperception?
- Global recession looming right now. Historically the average recession has lasted 17 months (https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/basics/crashes/how-long-do-recessions-last/). High inflation and high interest rates would peak before halving estimated in March, 2024. Historically other bullruns gained pace around half a year after the halving event. FED is trying to do a soft landing in their interest rate policy. If it succeeds the timing in context of the halving could be in favor of a bullrun.
- Corporate started to adapt Ethereum, naming NFTs in their accounting which is ongoing in 2021/2022. It will mature over the next years and keep gaining market share from Bitcoin. I likely see Bitcoin as a currency reserve for Ethereum which will be less volatile and more predictable in its price action. It still requires speculators to be flushed out. But with more use cases you will get less speculation.
Bitcoin Dominance Chart: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
- Bitcoin as one of the major POW (Proof of Work) protocols left will stay in its unique position. Computing power turned into encrypted currency (or digital gold) will have value on its own. Heavy encrypting costs money and Bitcoin holds that. My opinion gets underlined by recent investments e.g. from Apple to encrypt their cloud computing services. Encrypted data is valuable. So is encrypted currency (or digital gold). Other POWs will have to compete against the argument of energy waste more than Bitcoin because of their lack of decentralization, adaption and therefore security. I can imagine that high security protocols will be built on decentralized Bitcoin hashing power.
Bitcoin hashrate: https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/hash-rate
- Google Trends does allow a historical view on Bitcoins/Ethereums search queries. While "Bitcoin" search queries peaked already in 2017 its valuation (ATH) has only peaked in 2021. That means that the USD price of Bitcoin was higher even when less people searched for it. My assumption here is that corporate has paved the way for the 2021/2022 bullrun and invested into it. Google was maybe not the platform of choice to research about Bitcoin for private investors anymore. Other platforms were involved to inform about it. Also it could be that "old" investors that already knew about Bitcoin were responsible for the price action on the last bullrun who likely won't do search queries on Bitcoin on Google. I'd takeaway here that Cryptocurrency has reached mainstream by now. My point about corporate adoption of Ethereum underlines that perspective. The next bullrun will be channeled by corporate advertising budgets with a promise of added value (e.g. digital gold praised by bank institutions, NFTs by corporate or social platforms).
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