Help please - Halving and Price

Hello. New to Bitcoin but have experience investing. I am very confused and even more skeptical about why almost all predictions call for a tremendous price spike following the next halving. In ALL other investment vehicles (including commodities) - “known” events are “priced in” almost by definition. This MUST hold for Bitcoin if it a long term, serious, investment vehicle (store of value, whatever….).
It can be argued that the first and even second halving were FOMO and, other psychological factors and, going forward, will be (should be) the exception rather than the norm. The third halving, well, Bitcoin mooned and is still in plus despite the drastic drop. I am also wary of the Absolute Scarcity argument causing sustained price spikes. this is KNOWN.
Can someone explain the reason the upcoming and future halving events are almost sure fire home runs wrt to BTC price?? It is a known event, it Should be priced in for a legit, albeit new, paradigm