Markets had a pretty calm/positive day today (VIX -5.79% to 14.32, S&P
+1.06%, Hang Seng +2.09%, Bitcoin +3.85%) on the same day as: Argentina
announcing sanctions on oil firms over the Falklands, a coordinated
Houthi/Al-Shabaab threat to Red Sea shipping through Bab-el-Mandeb, and an
investigated sabotage attempt in Leipzig linked to Russia.
Not making a trading call either way, that's not the point — just an
observation that keeps coming up: headline geopolitical risk and market
pricing seem to be moving on almost separate tracks lately. Curious what
people here think is driving that gap: has "permanent low-grade crisis"
just become priced-in as the new normal, or is this noise until one of
these actually disrupts a real supply chain (Red Sea shipping specifically
seems like the one to watch)?
(Background: I track markets alongside geopolitical/risk events daily for
a side project, Horizon (https://www.horizonapp.link) — free, no login, not selling anything, just where
I pulled today's numbers from.)
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