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Here is Your Complete Market Rundown (09/29/2026):
Top Stories
Anthropic Files for $2 Trillion IPO With Existential AI Risk Warning as Tech Giants Converge on White House
Anthropic has filed an IPO prospectus targeting a $2 trillion valuation, which would make it the largest public offering in history, while explicitly warning potential investors that its own technology could pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity. The prospectus also reveals a $518 billion AI infrastructure buildout tied largely to non-cancelable contracts and documents sharply rising costs alongside wider losses, even as the company has grown substantially over the past year.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins called the existential risk disclosure “an unusual type of disclosure,” and at least one analyst suggested Anthropic was using the doomsday language strategically to deter open-source rivals. The filing arrived on the same day OpenAI’s annual recurring revenue was reported to be approaching $70 billion, sharpening attention across the industry on AI valuations and the competitive stakes between frontier labs. OpenAI separately delayed a new AI model after internal safety testing found it became too persistent in completing tasks and failed to meet the company’s safety bar, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Anthropomorphic CEO Dario Amodei was among a group of top tech executives, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, Microsoft’s Satya Nadella, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, AMD’s Lisa Su, and Elon Musk, who attended a White House AI luncheon with President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday. Trump said he would sign a new executive order on AI, expressed a desire to maintain the U.S. AI lead, and told reporters he does not want to disrupt the technology too much.
The White House simultaneously launched America.gov, an AI-powered government portal using Google’s Gemini and Grok that consolidates information from roughly 29,000 federal websites and allows users to ask questions in plain language. On the safety and hardware front, Nvidia unveiled its Open Agent Safety Platform, a containment architecture for autonomous AI agents that strips permissions by default and restores access only when needed. Jensen Huang, speaking with CNBC, argued that AI containment is an engineering problem and that companies should simply not release systems they cannot control.
More than 100 organizations are working with the platform, including Microsoft, Anthropic, IBM, Hugging Face, and SpaceXAI, with OpenAI notably absent. AMD also captured attention with an $8.2 billion deal to acquire Fei-Fei Li’s World Labs AI startup, drawing praise from Wall Street analysts as AMD pushes further into physical AI.
Wells Fargo Raises 10-Year Treasury Forecast to 5.25%-5.75% as Yields Hit Multidecade Highs
Wells Fargo Investment Institute sharply raised its forecast for the 10-year US Treasury yield, projecting it will reach 5.25%-5.75% by the end of 2027, up from a prior forecast of 4.50%-5.00%, as bond markets extend a punishing selloff to multiyear highs. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.58% on September 29, within one basis point of its highest level since 2002, marking a sixth consecutive session of gains.
The 10-year yield reached 5.24%, its highest since 2007, while the 2-year note stood at 4.81% as of September 25. Treasuries are down 2.6% this year as a result of the sustained selloff. A combination of forces is driving the move: elevated oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, heavy government debt issuance, and broader fiscal worries have together fueled a global bond market rout.
The scale of the repricing prompted Wells Fargo to widen and lift its yield target band, reflecting expectations that these pressures will keep rates elevated well into 2027.
Euro Hits 16-Month Low and AUD Drops Despite RBA Hike as 30-Year Treasury Yield Surges to 5.60%
The U.S. dollar extended its advance to fresh highs on Tuesday, powered by a surge in Treasury yields that pushed the 30-year rate to 5.60%, a level not seen since 2004. The euro fell to a 16-month low, last trading down 0.26% at $1.13415, as hawkish Federal Reserve rate-hike bets continued to draw capital into dollar assets and lifted the greenback broadly.
The Australian dollar was unable to hold gains even after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, in line with expectations. Markets characterized the move as a dovish hike, and fast money responded by adding to dollar long positions, with Aussie net short positioning rising to its highest since December. The Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust crossed below its 200-day moving average of $69.45, reflecting the four-week slide that has carried AUD/USD back toward critical longer-term trend support ahead of the quarterly close.
The Canadian dollar also slipped, pressured by weak July growth data at home compounding the broader dollar bid. Wells Fargo revised its forecasts for the dollar, yen, and euro in light of the shifting rate-hike outlook. The pound fell alongside the euro as 2004-era U.S. yields undercut risk appetite for European currencies.
Gold, which had dropped nearly 4% over the prior two sessions as high yields and the firm dollar capped any bounce, attempted a partial recovery and was last up 1.4% at $4,175.01. Silver retreated as rising U.S. yields combined with Strait of Hormuz tensions reinforced the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. WTI crude settled at $89.38 per barrel.
Adding to the macro backdrop, U.S. job openings fell to a five-month low and consumer confidence dropped to its lowest reading since 2014, painting a picture of a slowing but still tight labor market. Egypt and the UAE separately renewed a bilateral EGP-AED currency swap agreement worth AED 5 billion, while the Iranian rial fell to an all-time low, with $400 equating to billionaire status in local currency terms.
Company News
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)
Performance Overview
1D Change: -26.52%
5D Change: -30.43%
News Volume: 48
Unusual Volume Factor: 16x
Fair Isaac Suffers Worst Single-Day Collapse Since 1989 After FHFA Strips FICO Mortgage Monopoly
Fair Isaac shares plunged roughly 27 percent on Tuesday, their steepest single-day decline since 1989, after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will consolidate mortgage pricing onto a single unified grid and place VantageScore alongside Classic FICO on equal footing.
The regulatory change eliminates a structural advantage FICO had long held: VantageScore borrowers will now reach the top pricing band at a score of 780 or above, the same threshold as FICO, erasing the previous 20-point disadvantage that had effectively kept lenders tethered to the more expensive product. The pricing gap between the two scores is substantial. VantageScore costs approximately $0.99 per score, compared with roughly $10 for a FICO score, giving lenders a dramatically cheaper alternative now operating within the same regulatory framework.
Rocket Mortgage has already signaled support for the rival score, and analysts at Huber Research issued negative commentary on the stock following the announcement. The stock traded as low as approximately $614, with some reports placing it near $623 to $635 during morning trading. Mizuho and Jefferies both reiterated their existing ratings without upgrades, offering little reassurance to investors.
The shares are now down more than 62 percent year to date and have shed more than 30 percent over the past five trading days alone, pulling the stock below its September 2023 close of $868.53. At current levels, FICO has retraced to near its 2021 peak after a run that took it from roughly $10 at the post-financial-crisis lows to a high near $2,382.
CarMax, Inc. (KMX)
Performance Overview
1D Change: 5.25%
5D Change: 4.29%
News Volume: 24
Unusual Volume Factor: 24x
CarMax Q2 Fiscal 2027 EPS Surges 81% as Revenue Jumps Nearly 20% to $7.9 Billion
CarMax posted a blowout second quarter for fiscal 2027, with revenue rising 19.5% year over year to $7.9 billion against analyst estimates of $7.01 billion. Diluted earnings per share climbed 81.3% to $1.16, well ahead of the $0.74 consensus estimate, while net earnings reached $165.3 million, up 73.3% from the prior-year period and above the $106 million estimate. Unit sales drove the outperformance.
Retail used unit sales grew 13.8% to 227,391 vehicles, with comparable store used unit sales up 13.0%. Wholesale units rose 15.9% to 160,344, bringing combined retail and wholesale unit volume to 387,735, a 14.7% increase. Used vehicle revenue reached $6.3 billion, up 19.7%, while wholesale revenue grew 18.2% to $1.4 billion. Total gross profit came in at $799.5 million, up 11.4% year over year. Gross profit per retail unit fell $111 to $2,105, a deliberate result of pricing actions the company implemented to strengthen price competitiveness.
Gross profit per wholesale unit was $858. CarMax Auto Finance income rose 32.1% to $135.6 million, aided by expanded CAF share of Tier 2 originations. SG&A expenses grew a modest 4.6% to $628.6 million, reflecting the operating leverage the company cited as a key strategic win. Management noted demand remains resilient despite affordability pressure, with the lowest-income customer group roughly flat from a year ago.
CarMax attributed the results to its “Shift into GEAR” strategy, citing stronger price competitiveness, higher Extended Protection Plan margins, and continued digital experience improvements. The company plans to resume share repurchases in Q3 fiscal 2027, with $1.31 billion remaining under its buyback authorization, and has scheduled a strategic update for November 3. KMX shares rose approximately 6.1% in premarket trading and were up around 6.3% by early afternoon.
Carnival Corporation & Plc (CCL)
Performance Overview
1D Change: 13.47%
5D Change: 12.81%
Carnival Surges 12% After Record Q3 Revenue and Raised Full-Year Guidance
Carnival Corporation posted record third-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates on every major metric, sending its shares up as much as 14% to around $25 on Tuesday. Revenue rose to $8.44 billion against analyst expectations of $8.3 billion, while adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.43 versus the $1.36 consensus. Net income reached an all-time high of $1.92 billion, or $1.40 per share, up from $1.85 billion, or $1.33 per share, a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA of $3.0 billion topped the $2.93 billion estimate, and occupancy hit 111.8%.
The company raised its full-year adjusted net income guidance to approximately $3.1 billion, above the $3.05 billion analyst estimate, and lifted its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to roughly $2.24 from the prior $2.21 consensus. Full-year net yields in constant currency are now expected to grow 2.3%, and full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance stands at approximately $7.1 billion. Management pointed to record occupancy and pricing for 2027 bookings as a key indicator of sustained demand, with customer deposits sitting at $7.6 billion.
Q4 guidance disappointed relative to expectations: adjusted net income is projected at roughly $274 million against estimates of $352 million, and adjusted EPS of approximately $0.20 fell short of the $0.25 consensus, though adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.3 billion was roughly in line. Net yields in constant currency for Q4 are guided at plus 1.7%. The balance sheet also showed progress. Carnival redeemed $500 million of seven percent coupon notes during the quarter and paid $204 million in dividends.
S&P upgraded Carnival to investment grade status, a milestone CFO David Bernstein has prioritized as the company works to reduce its debt load and refinance at lower rates. The strong results lifted the broader cruise sector, with Royal Caribbean gaining approximately 7% and Norwegian rising around 5%.
Corporate Actions Events
Oura Pulls Nasdaq IPO Scheduled for This Week Citing Market Uncertainty
Smart ring maker Oura postponed its planned Nasdaq debut on Tuesday, September 29, citing uncertainty in the IPO market. The company had been set to list under the ticker OURA during the week of September 28, offering 50 million shares priced between $40 and $44 and targeting a fully diluted valuation of up to $15.6 billion.
The offering had been positioned as one of the most anticipated listings of the fall season. Oura and existing investors had planned to raise as much as $2.2 billion through the sale, with Eli Lilly indicating interest in purchasing up to $100 million of shares as part of a broader biometric-tracking partnership. The company reported $1.2 billion in revenue for the nine months ending June 30, 2026, up from $697 million in the same period a year earlier, and the deal was reported to be roughly four times oversubscribed before the delay was announced.
Oura's decision follows a string of other IPO withdrawals in recent weeks. Holtec Nuclear Corp. and Bamboo Insurance Services, backed by CVC Capital Partners, both postponed their listings, citing market conditions. Broader market jitters have been tied to uncertainty around the AI trade, rising bond yields and Federal Reserve rate policy, even as the S&P 500 had gained roughly 1.1% in September and the Nasdaq Composite had rallied more than 3% to a record high heading into the week.
OpenAI Seeks $30 Billion in New Funding at $1.4 Trillion Valuation After IPO Delay
OpenAI is targeting at least $30 billion in a new private funding round at a valuation of approximately $1.4 trillion, excluding the money to be raised, according to people familiar with the matter. The move comes after the artificial intelligence startup pushed back its plans for an initial public offering.
The $1.4 trillion target marks a significant step up from the $1.2 trillion figure Bloomberg had previously reported OpenAI was considering, and would vault the company above rival Anthropic's most recent private market valuation. OpenAI was valued at $852 billion in a March 2026 funding round, making the new target a dramatic acceleration in less than a year.
The fresh capital raise underscores OpenAI's continued appetite for large-scale funding as it delays a public market debut, opting instead to remain private while securing substantial investment to fund its operations and AI development ambitions.
Piper Sandler in Talks to Acquire Perella Weinberg Partners in Wall Street Advisory Merger
Piper Sandler is in discussions to acquire Perella Weinberg Partners, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal published on September 29, 2026. A deal would combine two prominent independent Wall Street advisory firms, with Perella Weinberg shareholders seeing a rise in the company's share price following the report.
Perella Weinberg, which trades on Nasdaq under the ticker PWP, has been on an active expansion path in 2026, completing the acquisition of UK advisory firm Gleacher Shacklock to bolster its European presence and having previously acquired Devon Park Advisors in late 2025 to build out a secondaries advisory capability. The firm reported revenues of $149 million in the first quarter of 2026, down 30% from a record year-ago period, amid a broader slowdown in M&A closings. Piper Sandler, which trades under the ticker PIPR, is a diversified investment bank with advisory, research, and capital markets operations.
No financial terms for the potential transaction were disclosed, and the talks were described as ongoing at the time of the report.
Tesla Secures $30 Billion in New Credit Facilities, Replacing Existing $5 Billion Revolver
Tesla disclosed in an SEC filing on September 29, 2026 that it has entered into $30 billion in new financing arrangements, a dramatic expansion of its available credit. The package consists of a $20 billion three-year delayed-draw term loan maturing September 29, 2029, an $8 billion five-year revolving credit facility that allows letters of credit up to $500 million, and a $2 billion 364-day revolving facility. Tesla simultaneously terminated its existing revolving credit agreement, which had been a $5 billion facility.
The company has the option to increase the revolving facilities by up to $4 billion, bringing the total revolving capacity to as much as $14 billion. Despite the scale of the new arrangements, Tesla said it does not currently plan to draw on any of the facilities in 2026, signaling the move is aimed at bolstering financial flexibility rather than meeting immediate funding needs.
Tesla FSD Supervised Approved in Croatia, Marking Eighth EU Member State Clearance
Tesla has secured regulatory approval to deploy its Full Self-Driving Supervised driver-assist software in Croatia, making it the eighth European Union member state to greenlight the system. The clearance is built on a provisional certification issued by the Dutch vehicle authority RDW, which is recognized across EU borders, following prior approvals in the Netherlands, Lithuania, Estonia, Denmark, Belgium, Slovenia, and Czechia.
With Croatia added, Tesla's FSD Supervised framework now legally covers approximately 12.66% of the total EU population. The system operates as a Level 2 driver-assist technology, meaning drivers must maintain constant visual attention and readiness to take control. Deployment in Croatia will be carried out through over-the-air software updates, consistent with the rollout model used in North America and other approved European markets. The expansion is seen as accelerating a national domino effect in Europe ahead of formal EU-wide regulatory decisions under UNECE frameworks.
Technology Events
Meta Launches Muse for Small Business With Integrations for Slack, Zoom and Intuit as Zuckerberg Eyes New Revenue Beyond Ads
Meta unveiled Muse for Small Business on Tuesday, extending its recently launched personal AI agent into the commercial market. The small-business version connects the Muse agent to widely used workplace software including Asana, Zoom, Intuit, Box, Canva and Salesforce's Slack, and can also link directly to Meta ad accounts and professional Instagram and Facebook pages. Pricing details were not announced, though Meta pointed to the existing Muse app structure, which offers a free tier with usage limits and paid subscriptions at $20 and $100 per month.
The move comes one day after Meta announced the Meta Enterprise Platform, a broader push to turn its AI stack into products and services for companies. To lead that effort, Meta hired Chirantan Desai, the former MongoDB CEO, as its new chief enterprise platform officer, reporting directly to Zuckerberg. The platform will include the Muse agent, Meta Business Agent, Muse API and Muse Code.
The expansion signals a deliberate shift in Meta's business model. The company generated $59.36 billion in advertising revenue in the second quarter of 2026, nearly all of its $60.80 billion in total revenue. Zuckerberg has said Meta plans to eventually profit from Muse by collecting a small transaction fee from merchants when the agent completes purchases on behalf of users, leaving the service free to consumers up to a token threshold. The small-business launch extends that commercial strategy into the enterprise, where integrations with established productivity tools could accelerate adoption.
Geopolitics Events
Supreme Court Reinstates Trump Third-Country Deportations and Will Hear Case in December
The Supreme Court on Tuesday allowed the Trump administration to resume deporting migrants to countries to which they have no prior connection, blocking a lower appeals court ruling that had halted the practice on the grounds that affected individuals were not given a proper opportunity to raise safety or human rights concerns as required under federal immigration law. The court's three liberal justices dissented from the emergency order, which marked the third time the high court has sided with the administration on this issue on a temporary basis.
The court also agreed to hear the case for full arguments in December, placing a high-profile immigration dispute on its merits docket and setting up a definitive ruling on whether migrants facing removal to third countries must receive a meaningful chance to object before being sent there.
Separately on Tuesday, a federal court blocked the Trump administration's attempt to withhold counterterrorism funds from states that do not adopt certain election reforms, and a federal judge declined to pause sanctions he had imposed against the administration in a dispute involving IRS records. A U.S. appeals court was also weighing whether to open a contempt investigation into the administration over earlier deportation flights that had proceeded despite court orders.
UK PM Burnham Pledges Public Control of Water and Energy, Electoral Reform and EU Reset at Labour Conference
Prime Minister Andy Burnham used his keynote address to the Labour Party's annual conference in Liverpool on September 29 to lay out an ambitious domestic agenda he described as building "a new economy and new politics," vowing to do things his predecessors would not. The speech marked his first conference address as prime minister and set the tone for what he framed as a decisive break from years of drift.
Burnham announced plans to bring water, energy and housing under greater public control, framing the move as central to economic growth. He pledged to repeal the ban on public ownership of water companies that has been in place since the 1980s, opening the door for the state to take direct stakes in the sector.
On the pension triple lock, Burnham said the policy would be adjusted in 2030, signalling a willingness to touch one of the most politically sensitive commitments in British social policy. He also announced a new commission to review the UK's electoral system, a significant step toward potential reform of the voting structure.
Burnham declared that Brexit had not delivered the promised return of control to Britain, a candid admission that sets the stage for a recalibrated relationship with the European Union. He confirmed that a UK-EU summit later this year will focus on areas of closer cooperation, signalling a deliberate move to reset ties with the bloc.
Oil And Gas Events
Oil Risk Premium Hardens as Brent Holds Above $105 and IEA Rules Out New Reserve Release
Brent crude held near $105 a barrel and WTI near $92 on September 29, with Standard Chartered Bank Energy Research Head Emily Ashford declaring there will be no return to normal for the oil market, framing the elevated risk premium as structural rather than cyclical. Diesel prices continued to pull back even as headline crude benchmarks stayed elevated, and equity markets showed a cautious tone, with S&P 500 futures roughly flat and the Nasdaq up only marginally.
The IEA's executive director Fatih Birol signaled that another coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves is not a top priority for the agency, removing one of the few near-term tools that governments had used to cap prices. That came after a prior 400-million-barrel IEA release in March 2026 failed to durably suppress prices, a backdrop that lends weight to Ashford's structural premium argument.
European equity markets edged higher on Tuesday despite persistently elevated oil and bond yields hovering near multi-year highs, as investors selectively bought stocks. Canadian TSX futures were muted, with oil's support to energy shares broadly offset by caution ahead of GDP data. Gold and bitcoin gained modestly on the day, consistent with the broader risk-off undercurrent tied to geopolitical uncertainty and sticky energy costs.
Shell-Led Consortium Approves $23 Billion LNG Canada Phase 2 Expansion, Doubling Export Capacity
A Shell-led consortium has given the final green light to the Phase 2 expansion of LNG Canada, committing roughly 33 billion Canadian dollars, or $23 billion US, to double the facility's production capacity to approximately 28 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas per year. The project is located in Kitimat, British Columbia, and the decision was announced on September 29 with Prime Minister Mark Carney in Vancouver to mark the occasion, directly advancing his goal of making Canada an energy superpower.
The expansion immediately generated a wave of downstream contract awards. Fluor Corporation secured a $7.5 billion share of the Phase 2 engineering, procurement and construction contract through its joint venture with Japan's JGC Corporation, the same partnership that delivered Phase 1. TC Energy also confirmed it is moving ahead with the Coastal GasLink Phase 2 pipeline expansion, which is required to deliver incremental natural gas supply from producing regions to the Kitimat export terminal.
The investment positions Canada as a major LNG exporter at a moment when global supply disruptions have intensified focus on energy security. Canada's government had previously estimated the project would create thousands of jobs and attract tens of billions in private sector capital, and the Phase 2 approval now puts those projections on a concrete footing.
WTI Crude Settles at Lowest in a Month as Saudi Pipeline Flows Recover Faster Than Expected
Oil prices tumbled on September 29 as signs of recovering crude exports from the Middle East eased supply fears that had kept prices elevated for weeks. US West Texas Intermediate crude settled 3.48% lower at $89.38 per barrel, a drop of $3.22, touching its lowest level in a month. Brent crude fell more than 2%, closing around $102.59 a barrel.
The selloff was driven by faster-than-expected output recovery from Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which connects the kingdom's eastern oil fields to Red Sea export terminals. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz also showed improvement, with a seven-day average of 13.2 million barrels per day, representing 77% of prewar levels according to Kpler data. The combination of signals suggested that the disruption premium built into prices in recent weeks was beginning to unwind.
Despite Tuesday's sharp decline, both benchmarks remain on course for substantial monthly gains, with Brent up roughly 15% and WTI up around 5.7% for September, reflecting how much the earlier supply disruption fears had lifted prices.
Macro Events
US Consumer Confidence Crashes to 81.9 in September, Far Below Forecasts, as Inflation Fears and Rate Anxiety Mount
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index plunged 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, missing economist forecasts of 89.0 by the widest margin in recent memory and prompting comparisons to the collapse seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. The prior month's reading was also revised down to 88.6 from 89.4, compounding the deterioration. The drop marked the lowest reading in more than a decade and hit across every demographic, political affiliation, and income bracket.
The Present Situation Index fell to 109.3 from 117.2, as consumers' views on current business conditions turned negative and assessments of the jobs market worsened. The Expectations Index, which measures consumers' six-month outlook, declined to 63.6 from 69.5, driven by weaker business and labor outlooks. On a six-month moving average, the steepest confidence declines were seen among households earning $125,000 to $149,000 annually, while Gen Z and Millennials led the drop by age group.
Inflation anxiety intensified alongside the confidence drop. The average 12-month inflation outlook rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, and the median outlook climbed to 5.1%. The share of consumers anticipating higher interest rates surged 5.2 percentage points to 68.4%, reflecting widespread concern that the Federal Reserve will continue raising rates. Elevated Treasury yields and oil-driven inflation fears have kept bond markets under pressure, further weighing on sentiment.
US equity futures edged higher on the day as oil prices and Treasury yields pulled back modestly from recent multi-year highs, providing some relief. Gold gained ground amid geopolitical uncertainty and persistent rate concerns, though analysts cautioned that its upside remained limited given the continued strength in the dollar.
Canada GDP Flat in July After Three Months of Growth, August Seen Rebounding 0.2%
Canada's economy stalled in July, with Statistics Canada reporting gross domestic product unchanged from the prior month, snapping a three-consecutive-month streak of expansion. June's growth was revised upward to 0.4%, making the July pause more pronounced by comparison. Manufacturing weakness and softening trade were the primary drags, offsetting gains in construction and utilities.
StatCan's advance estimate points to a 0.2% rebound in August, suggesting the stall was temporary. The July data landed ahead of the full impact of U.S. tariffs on the Canadian economy, a factor markets are watching closely as a potential headwind to future growth.
Canadian bond yields slipped following the release, reflecting expectations that soft growth could keep the Bank of Canada on an easing path. TSX futures were nearly flat, indicating equity markets absorbed the data without a sharp reaction.
Crypto Events
Bitcoin Stalls Below $85,000 as ETF Inflows Weaken and Rate Fears Mount
Bitcoin traded in a tight range between $82,807 and $84,545 on September 29, settling near $83,150 as a confluence of macro pressures kept prices from breaking through a dense supply wall above $84,000 to $85,200. Long-term holders continued selling into any rally, while surging US bond yields weighed on stocks and precious metals simultaneously, limiting appetite for non-yielding assets.
US Bitcoin ETFs recorded just $31 million in net inflows on September 28, a sharp sign of weakening institutional demand. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust was the lone bright spot, pulling in $54.84 million and adding roughly 657 BTC to lift its total holdings back above 800,000 BTC, but outflows elsewhere dragged the overall figure down.
On the corporate treasury front, Strategy resumed Bitcoin purchases after several weeks of silence, adding 950 BTC to its holdings. The move reignited a debate highlighted by Strive about whether accumulating more Bitcoin actually increases per-share exposure, a distinction obscured by headline treasury figures.
Despite the near-term softness, Bitcoin is on pace for its best September on record. A 7.33% monthly gain has narrowly edged past September 2024's 7.29% return, though the record will not be confirmed until the monthly candle closes on September 30. Analysts note that the broader trend since August 19 remains an uptrend, with BTC up 28% over that stretch, but momentum has cooled as markets price in Federal Reserve rate increases and a possible additional hike in October. A HashKey Group researcher argued that a second Fed hike poses a greater threat to Bitcoin than the Senate's failed CLARITY Act vote. Rising US credit card stress at multi-year highs and tighter household financial conditions add further headwinds if conditions continue to deteriorate.
Bitwise Launches First US Spot NEAR ETF on NYSE Arca with Staking Rewards
Bitwise Asset Management launched the Bitwise NEAR ETF, ticker NRR, on NYSE Arca on September 29, making it the first spot exchange-traded product in the United States offering direct exposure to NEAR Protocol. The fund carries a 0.75% annual management fee and stakes its NEAR holdings in-house, with rewards targeting approximately 5% annually flowing to shareholders through the fund's net asset value.
The launch comes as NEAR has surged roughly 180% over the prior 30 days, reflecting broader investor interest in the protocol. Bitwise highlighted NEAR Intents, a cross-chain liquidity and settlement protocol that has processed more than $32 billion in volume, as a key draw for the fund. The firm also pointed to projections that global agentic commerce, a market in which NEAR is positioning itself as infrastructure, could reach $5 trillion by 2030.
Healthcare Events
Eli Lilly Says Zepbound Outperforms Higher-Dose Wegovy in New Weight Loss Data, and Touts Foundayo Edge Over Ozempic Pill
Eli Lilly released new clinical data on September 29 showing that its obesity drug Zepbound delivered greater weight loss than a higher-dose version of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, extending Lilly's advantage in the fiercely contested GLP-1 obesity market. The data builds on the earlier SURMOUNT-5 head-to-head trial, in which patients taking Zepbound lost roughly 20.2% of their body weight on average over 72 weeks compared with 13.7% for those on standard-dose Wegovy, a difference of approximately 50 pounds versus 33 pounds. The new release specifically addresses Novo's higher-dose Wegovy formulation, a key point of contention as Novo has argued that comparisons using its older dose understated its drug's performance.
On the same day, Lilly separately promoted the advantages of its oral GLP-1 drug Foundayo, which contains the active ingredient orforglipron, over Novo's oral semaglutide pill, known as Ozempic pill, in a diabetes analysis reported by Reuters. Foundayo has already received regulatory attention in multiple markets, with Lilly having filed for approval in the European Union for a type 2 diabetes indication and planning U.S. and additional filings later in 2026.
The dual data releases underscore Lilly's push to assert dominance across both injectable and oral GLP-1 therapies as the competitive landscape intensifies. Novo has previously filed legal complaints arguing that Lilly's advertising campaigns draw misleading comparisons using the older Wegovy dose, making the new higher-dose data a particularly pointed development in the rivalry between the two companies.
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