Tuesday, September 29, 2026

The rainbow is going to rainbow in the other direction <3

Heh, I made a lot of money on bitcoin. I lost a lot in alt coins. Although! Although! I got way ahead in the end. However. I'm starting to see the writing on the wall. Everything now is going into index funds and I'll work part time on an easy job and enjoying the passive income until it builds for retirement in the coming few years... . I just want to say, I feel you all were correct. I actually did believe something was going to come with crypto. The last cycle showed me, however... When I lost a lot on ethereum because it didn't blast passed the ATH. But, you know what? My blissful ignorance was beneficial to my family. Like 99% of crypto, we are greedy, trying to take advantage of a situation, a moment, whatever. Nobody is going to watch over my autistic kids when I'm gone, so I dumped money on a chance... And I'll be damn'd sure I won't make sure they will end up in a government facility when I'm gone being taken care of by people that don't care... Basically, the selfish mindset of those in crypto.. I just want to say.. I'm drinking right now because I'm celebrating and completely out of crypto. I just want to say.. Whether you came to this situation because you got burned in crypto, or because you actually have good intentions for society.. I'm now fully believing your prediction is correct. I've been watching buttcoin for years, laughing at you... I actually believed it was going to be something, but I've lost faith recently and am coming to terms with my gains and moved everything into the safe index funds. Anyways... Life is good, you will end up being correct, and I'll continue to watch the events unfold with a humor. Salud. <3333 Call me a bad person, but, I'll say again, nobody will give a shit about my kids when I'm gone. So, I took a chance, and it paid off... Humans are full of ego and focused on themselves and their own. This is my wall of text. It's kind of a release.


The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (09/29/2026)

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Top Stories

Anthropic Files for $2 Trillion IPO With Existential AI Risk Warning as Tech Giants Converge on White House

Anthropic has filed an IPO prospectus targeting a $2 trillion valuation, which would make it the largest public offering in history, while explicitly warning potential investors that its own technology could pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity. The prospectus also reveals a $518 billion AI infrastructure buildout tied largely to non-cancelable contracts and documents sharply rising costs alongside wider losses, even as the company has grown substantially over the past year.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins called the existential risk disclosure “an unusual type of disclosure,” and at least one analyst suggested Anthropic was using the doomsday language strategically to deter open-source rivals. The filing arrived on the same day OpenAI’s annual recurring revenue was reported to be approaching $70 billion, sharpening attention across the industry on AI valuations and the competitive stakes between frontier labs. OpenAI separately delayed a new AI model after internal safety testing found it became too persistent in completing tasks and failed to meet the company’s safety bar, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Anthropomorphic CEO Dario Amodei was among a group of top tech executives, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, Microsoft’s Satya Nadella, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, AMD’s Lisa Su, and Elon Musk, who attended a White House AI luncheon with President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday. Trump said he would sign a new executive order on AI, expressed a desire to maintain the U.S. AI lead, and told reporters he does not want to disrupt the technology too much.

The White House simultaneously launched America.gov, an AI-powered government portal using Google’s Gemini and Grok that consolidates information from roughly 29,000 federal websites and allows users to ask questions in plain language. On the safety and hardware front, Nvidia unveiled its Open Agent Safety Platform, a containment architecture for autonomous AI agents that strips permissions by default and restores access only when needed. Jensen Huang, speaking with CNBC, argued that AI containment is an engineering problem and that companies should simply not release systems they cannot control.

More than 100 organizations are working with the platform, including Microsoft, Anthropic, IBM, Hugging Face, and SpaceXAI, with OpenAI notably absent. AMD also captured attention with an $8.2 billion deal to acquire Fei-Fei Li’s World Labs AI startup, drawing praise from Wall Street analysts as AMD pushes further into physical AI.

Wells Fargo Raises 10-Year Treasury Forecast to 5.25%-5.75% as Yields Hit Multidecade Highs

Wells Fargo Investment Institute sharply raised its forecast for the 10-year US Treasury yield, projecting it will reach 5.25%-5.75% by the end of 2027, up from a prior forecast of 4.50%-5.00%, as bond markets extend a punishing selloff to multiyear highs. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.58% on September 29, within one basis point of its highest level since 2002, marking a sixth consecutive session of gains.

The 10-year yield reached 5.24%, its highest since 2007, while the 2-year note stood at 4.81% as of September 25. Treasuries are down 2.6% this year as a result of the sustained selloff. A combination of forces is driving the move: elevated oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, heavy government debt issuance, and broader fiscal worries have together fueled a global bond market rout.

The scale of the repricing prompted Wells Fargo to widen and lift its yield target band, reflecting expectations that these pressures will keep rates elevated well into 2027.

Euro Hits 16-Month Low and AUD Drops Despite RBA Hike as 30-Year Treasury Yield Surges to 5.60%

The U.S. dollar extended its advance to fresh highs on Tuesday, powered by a surge in Treasury yields that pushed the 30-year rate to 5.60%, a level not seen since 2004. The euro fell to a 16-month low, last trading down 0.26% at $1.13415, as hawkish Federal Reserve rate-hike bets continued to draw capital into dollar assets and lifted the greenback broadly.

The Australian dollar was unable to hold gains even after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, in line with expectations. Markets characterized the move as a dovish hike, and fast money responded by adding to dollar long positions, with Aussie net short positioning rising to its highest since December. The Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust crossed below its 200-day moving average of $69.45, reflecting the four-week slide that has carried AUD/USD back toward critical longer-term trend support ahead of the quarterly close.

The Canadian dollar also slipped, pressured by weak July growth data at home compounding the broader dollar bid. Wells Fargo revised its forecasts for the dollar, yen, and euro in light of the shifting rate-hike outlook. The pound fell alongside the euro as 2004-era U.S. yields undercut risk appetite for European currencies.

Gold, which had dropped nearly 4% over the prior two sessions as high yields and the firm dollar capped any bounce, attempted a partial recovery and was last up 1.4% at $4,175.01. Silver retreated as rising U.S. yields combined with Strait of Hormuz tensions reinforced the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. WTI crude settled at $89.38 per barrel.

Adding to the macro backdrop, U.S. job openings fell to a five-month low and consumer confidence dropped to its lowest reading since 2014, painting a picture of a slowing but still tight labor market. Egypt and the UAE separately renewed a bilateral EGP-AED currency swap agreement worth AED 5 billion, while the Iranian rial fell to an all-time low, with $400 equating to billionaire status in local currency terms.

Company News

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)

Performance Overview

1D Change: -26.52%

5D Change: -30.43%

News Volume: 48

Unusual Volume Factor: 16x

Fair Isaac Suffers Worst Single-Day Collapse Since 1989 After FHFA Strips FICO Mortgage Monopoly

Fair Isaac shares plunged roughly 27 percent on Tuesday, their steepest single-day decline since 1989, after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will consolidate mortgage pricing onto a single unified grid and place VantageScore alongside Classic FICO on equal footing.

The regulatory change eliminates a structural advantage FICO had long held: VantageScore borrowers will now reach the top pricing band at a score of 780 or above, the same threshold as FICO, erasing the previous 20-point disadvantage that had effectively kept lenders tethered to the more expensive product. The pricing gap between the two scores is substantial. VantageScore costs approximately $0.99 per score, compared with roughly $10 for a FICO score, giving lenders a dramatically cheaper alternative now operating within the same regulatory framework.

Rocket Mortgage has already signaled support for the rival score, and analysts at Huber Research issued negative commentary on the stock following the announcement. The stock traded as low as approximately $614, with some reports placing it near $623 to $635 during morning trading. Mizuho and Jefferies both reiterated their existing ratings without upgrades, offering little reassurance to investors.

The shares are now down more than 62 percent year to date and have shed more than 30 percent over the past five trading days alone, pulling the stock below its September 2023 close of $868.53. At current levels, FICO has retraced to near its 2021 peak after a run that took it from roughly $10 at the post-financial-crisis lows to a high near $2,382.

CarMax, Inc. (KMX)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 5.25%

5D Change: 4.29%

News Volume: 24

Unusual Volume Factor: 24x

CarMax Q2 Fiscal 2027 EPS Surges 81% as Revenue Jumps Nearly 20% to $7.9 Billion

CarMax posted a blowout second quarter for fiscal 2027, with revenue rising 19.5% year over year to $7.9 billion against analyst estimates of $7.01 billion. Diluted earnings per share climbed 81.3% to $1.16, well ahead of the $0.74 consensus estimate, while net earnings reached $165.3 million, up 73.3% from the prior-year period and above the $106 million estimate. Unit sales drove the outperformance.

Retail used unit sales grew 13.8% to 227,391 vehicles, with comparable store used unit sales up 13.0%. Wholesale units rose 15.9% to 160,344, bringing combined retail and wholesale unit volume to 387,735, a 14.7% increase. Used vehicle revenue reached $6.3 billion, up 19.7%, while wholesale revenue grew 18.2% to $1.4 billion. Total gross profit came in at $799.5 million, up 11.4% year over year. Gross profit per retail unit fell $111 to $2,105, a deliberate result of pricing actions the company implemented to strengthen price competitiveness.

Gross profit per wholesale unit was $858. CarMax Auto Finance income rose 32.1% to $135.6 million, aided by expanded CAF share of Tier 2 originations. SG&A expenses grew a modest 4.6% to $628.6 million, reflecting the operating leverage the company cited as a key strategic win. Management noted demand remains resilient despite affordability pressure, with the lowest-income customer group roughly flat from a year ago.

CarMax attributed the results to its “Shift into GEAR” strategy, citing stronger price competitiveness, higher Extended Protection Plan margins, and continued digital experience improvements. The company plans to resume share repurchases in Q3 fiscal 2027, with $1.31 billion remaining under its buyback authorization, and has scheduled a strategic update for November 3. KMX shares rose approximately 6.1% in premarket trading and were up around 6.3% by early afternoon.

Carnival Corporation & Plc (CCL)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 13.47%

5D Change: 12.81%

Carnival Surges 12% After Record Q3 Revenue and Raised Full-Year Guidance

Carnival Corporation posted record third-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates on every major metric, sending its shares up as much as 14% to around $25 on Tuesday. Revenue rose to $8.44 billion against analyst expectations of $8.3 billion, while adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.43 versus the $1.36 consensus. Net income reached an all-time high of $1.92 billion, or $1.40 per share, up from $1.85 billion, or $1.33 per share, a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA of $3.0 billion topped the $2.93 billion estimate, and occupancy hit 111.8%.

The company raised its full-year adjusted net income guidance to approximately $3.1 billion, above the $3.05 billion analyst estimate, and lifted its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to roughly $2.24 from the prior $2.21 consensus. Full-year net yields in constant currency are now expected to grow 2.3%, and full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance stands at approximately $7.1 billion. Management pointed to record occupancy and pricing for 2027 bookings as a key indicator of sustained demand, with customer deposits sitting at $7.6 billion.

Q4 guidance disappointed relative to expectations: adjusted net income is projected at roughly $274 million against estimates of $352 million, and adjusted EPS of approximately $0.20 fell short of the $0.25 consensus, though adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.3 billion was roughly in line. Net yields in constant currency for Q4 are guided at plus 1.7%. The balance sheet also showed progress. Carnival redeemed $500 million of seven percent coupon notes during the quarter and paid $204 million in dividends.

S&P upgraded Carnival to investment grade status, a milestone CFO David Bernstein has prioritized as the company works to reduce its debt load and refinance at lower rates. The strong results lifted the broader cruise sector, with Royal Caribbean gaining approximately 7% and Norwegian rising around 5%.

Corporate Actions Events

Oura Pulls Nasdaq IPO Scheduled for This Week Citing Market Uncertainty

Smart ring maker Oura postponed its planned Nasdaq debut on Tuesday, September 29, citing uncertainty in the IPO market. The company had been set to list under the ticker OURA during the week of September 28, offering 50 million shares priced between $40 and $44 and targeting a fully diluted valuation of up to $15.6 billion.

The offering had been positioned as one of the most anticipated listings of the fall season. Oura and existing investors had planned to raise as much as $2.2 billion through the sale, with Eli Lilly indicating interest in purchasing up to $100 million of shares as part of a broader biometric-tracking partnership. The company reported $1.2 billion in revenue for the nine months ending June 30, 2026, up from $697 million in the same period a year earlier, and the deal was reported to be roughly four times oversubscribed before the delay was announced.

Oura's decision follows a string of other IPO withdrawals in recent weeks. Holtec Nuclear Corp. and Bamboo Insurance Services, backed by CVC Capital Partners, both postponed their listings, citing market conditions. Broader market jitters have been tied to uncertainty around the AI trade, rising bond yields and Federal Reserve rate policy, even as the S&P 500 had gained roughly 1.1% in September and the Nasdaq Composite had rallied more than 3% to a record high heading into the week.

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OpenAI Seeks $30 Billion in New Funding at $1.4 Trillion Valuation After IPO Delay

OpenAI is targeting at least $30 billion in a new private funding round at a valuation of approximately $1.4 trillion, excluding the money to be raised, according to people familiar with the matter. The move comes after the artificial intelligence startup pushed back its plans for an initial public offering.

The $1.4 trillion target marks a significant step up from the $1.2 trillion figure Bloomberg had previously reported OpenAI was considering, and would vault the company above rival Anthropic's most recent private market valuation. OpenAI was valued at $852 billion in a March 2026 funding round, making the new target a dramatic acceleration in less than a year.

The fresh capital raise underscores OpenAI's continued appetite for large-scale funding as it delays a public market debut, opting instead to remain private while securing substantial investment to fund its operations and AI development ambitions.

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Piper Sandler in Talks to Acquire Perella Weinberg Partners in Wall Street Advisory Merger

Piper Sandler is in discussions to acquire Perella Weinberg Partners, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal published on September 29, 2026. A deal would combine two prominent independent Wall Street advisory firms, with Perella Weinberg shareholders seeing a rise in the company's share price following the report.

Perella Weinberg, which trades on Nasdaq under the ticker PWP, has been on an active expansion path in 2026, completing the acquisition of UK advisory firm Gleacher Shacklock to bolster its European presence and having previously acquired Devon Park Advisors in late 2025 to build out a secondaries advisory capability. The firm reported revenues of $149 million in the first quarter of 2026, down 30% from a record year-ago period, amid a broader slowdown in M&A closings. Piper Sandler, which trades under the ticker PIPR, is a diversified investment bank with advisory, research, and capital markets operations.

No financial terms for the potential transaction were disclosed, and the talks were described as ongoing at the time of the report.

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Tesla Secures $30 Billion in New Credit Facilities, Replacing Existing $5 Billion Revolver

Tesla disclosed in an SEC filing on September 29, 2026 that it has entered into $30 billion in new financing arrangements, a dramatic expansion of its available credit. The package consists of a $20 billion three-year delayed-draw term loan maturing September 29, 2029, an $8 billion five-year revolving credit facility that allows letters of credit up to $500 million, and a $2 billion 364-day revolving facility. Tesla simultaneously terminated its existing revolving credit agreement, which had been a $5 billion facility.

The company has the option to increase the revolving facilities by up to $4 billion, bringing the total revolving capacity to as much as $14 billion. Despite the scale of the new arrangements, Tesla said it does not currently plan to draw on any of the facilities in 2026, signaling the move is aimed at bolstering financial flexibility rather than meeting immediate funding needs.

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Tesla FSD Supervised Approved in Croatia, Marking Eighth EU Member State Clearance

Tesla has secured regulatory approval to deploy its Full Self-Driving Supervised driver-assist software in Croatia, making it the eighth European Union member state to greenlight the system. The clearance is built on a provisional certification issued by the Dutch vehicle authority RDW, which is recognized across EU borders, following prior approvals in the Netherlands, Lithuania, Estonia, Denmark, Belgium, Slovenia, and Czechia.

With Croatia added, Tesla's FSD Supervised framework now legally covers approximately 12.66% of the total EU population. The system operates as a Level 2 driver-assist technology, meaning drivers must maintain constant visual attention and readiness to take control. Deployment in Croatia will be carried out through over-the-air software updates, consistent with the rollout model used in North America and other approved European markets. The expansion is seen as accelerating a national domino effect in Europe ahead of formal EU-wide regulatory decisions under UNECE frameworks.

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Technology Events

Meta Launches Muse for Small Business With Integrations for Slack, Zoom and Intuit as Zuckerberg Eyes New Revenue Beyond Ads

Meta unveiled Muse for Small Business on Tuesday, extending its recently launched personal AI agent into the commercial market. The small-business version connects the Muse agent to widely used workplace software including Asana, Zoom, Intuit, Box, Canva and Salesforce's Slack, and can also link directly to Meta ad accounts and professional Instagram and Facebook pages. Pricing details were not announced, though Meta pointed to the existing Muse app structure, which offers a free tier with usage limits and paid subscriptions at $20 and $100 per month.

The move comes one day after Meta announced the Meta Enterprise Platform, a broader push to turn its AI stack into products and services for companies. To lead that effort, Meta hired Chirantan Desai, the former MongoDB CEO, as its new chief enterprise platform officer, reporting directly to Zuckerberg. The platform will include the Muse agent, Meta Business Agent, Muse API and Muse Code.

The expansion signals a deliberate shift in Meta's business model. The company generated $59.36 billion in advertising revenue in the second quarter of 2026, nearly all of its $60.80 billion in total revenue. Zuckerberg has said Meta plans to eventually profit from Muse by collecting a small transaction fee from merchants when the agent completes purchases on behalf of users, leaving the service free to consumers up to a token threshold. The small-business launch extends that commercial strategy into the enterprise, where integrations with established productivity tools could accelerate adoption.

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Geopolitics Events

Supreme Court Reinstates Trump Third-Country Deportations and Will Hear Case in December

The Supreme Court on Tuesday allowed the Trump administration to resume deporting migrants to countries to which they have no prior connection, blocking a lower appeals court ruling that had halted the practice on the grounds that affected individuals were not given a proper opportunity to raise safety or human rights concerns as required under federal immigration law. The court's three liberal justices dissented from the emergency order, which marked the third time the high court has sided with the administration on this issue on a temporary basis.

The court also agreed to hear the case for full arguments in December, placing a high-profile immigration dispute on its merits docket and setting up a definitive ruling on whether migrants facing removal to third countries must receive a meaningful chance to object before being sent there.

Separately on Tuesday, a federal court blocked the Trump administration's attempt to withhold counterterrorism funds from states that do not adopt certain election reforms, and a federal judge declined to pause sanctions he had imposed against the administration in a dispute involving IRS records. A U.S. appeals court was also weighing whether to open a contempt investigation into the administration over earlier deportation flights that had proceeded despite court orders.

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UK PM Burnham Pledges Public Control of Water and Energy, Electoral Reform and EU Reset at Labour Conference

Prime Minister Andy Burnham used his keynote address to the Labour Party's annual conference in Liverpool on September 29 to lay out an ambitious domestic agenda he described as building "a new economy and new politics," vowing to do things his predecessors would not. The speech marked his first conference address as prime minister and set the tone for what he framed as a decisive break from years of drift.

Burnham announced plans to bring water, energy and housing under greater public control, framing the move as central to economic growth. He pledged to repeal the ban on public ownership of water companies that has been in place since the 1980s, opening the door for the state to take direct stakes in the sector.

On the pension triple lock, Burnham said the policy would be adjusted in 2030, signalling a willingness to touch one of the most politically sensitive commitments in British social policy. He also announced a new commission to review the UK's electoral system, a significant step toward potential reform of the voting structure.

Burnham declared that Brexit had not delivered the promised return of control to Britain, a candid admission that sets the stage for a recalibrated relationship with the European Union. He confirmed that a UK-EU summit later this year will focus on areas of closer cooperation, signalling a deliberate move to reset ties with the bloc.

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Oil And Gas Events

Oil Risk Premium Hardens as Brent Holds Above $105 and IEA Rules Out New Reserve Release

Brent crude held near $105 a barrel and WTI near $92 on September 29, with Standard Chartered Bank Energy Research Head Emily Ashford declaring there will be no return to normal for the oil market, framing the elevated risk premium as structural rather than cyclical. Diesel prices continued to pull back even as headline crude benchmarks stayed elevated, and equity markets showed a cautious tone, with S&P 500 futures roughly flat and the Nasdaq up only marginally.

The IEA's executive director Fatih Birol signaled that another coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves is not a top priority for the agency, removing one of the few near-term tools that governments had used to cap prices. That came after a prior 400-million-barrel IEA release in March 2026 failed to durably suppress prices, a backdrop that lends weight to Ashford's structural premium argument.

European equity markets edged higher on Tuesday despite persistently elevated oil and bond yields hovering near multi-year highs, as investors selectively bought stocks. Canadian TSX futures were muted, with oil's support to energy shares broadly offset by caution ahead of GDP data. Gold and bitcoin gained modestly on the day, consistent with the broader risk-off undercurrent tied to geopolitical uncertainty and sticky energy costs.

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Shell-Led Consortium Approves $23 Billion LNG Canada Phase 2 Expansion, Doubling Export Capacity

A Shell-led consortium has given the final green light to the Phase 2 expansion of LNG Canada, committing roughly 33 billion Canadian dollars, or $23 billion US, to double the facility's production capacity to approximately 28 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas per year. The project is located in Kitimat, British Columbia, and the decision was announced on September 29 with Prime Minister Mark Carney in Vancouver to mark the occasion, directly advancing his goal of making Canada an energy superpower.

The expansion immediately generated a wave of downstream contract awards. Fluor Corporation secured a $7.5 billion share of the Phase 2 engineering, procurement and construction contract through its joint venture with Japan's JGC Corporation, the same partnership that delivered Phase 1. TC Energy also confirmed it is moving ahead with the Coastal GasLink Phase 2 pipeline expansion, which is required to deliver incremental natural gas supply from producing regions to the Kitimat export terminal.

The investment positions Canada as a major LNG exporter at a moment when global supply disruptions have intensified focus on energy security. Canada's government had previously estimated the project would create thousands of jobs and attract tens of billions in private sector capital, and the Phase 2 approval now puts those projections on a concrete footing.

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WTI Crude Settles at Lowest in a Month as Saudi Pipeline Flows Recover Faster Than Expected

Oil prices tumbled on September 29 as signs of recovering crude exports from the Middle East eased supply fears that had kept prices elevated for weeks. US West Texas Intermediate crude settled 3.48% lower at $89.38 per barrel, a drop of $3.22, touching its lowest level in a month. Brent crude fell more than 2%, closing around $102.59 a barrel.

The selloff was driven by faster-than-expected output recovery from Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which connects the kingdom's eastern oil fields to Red Sea export terminals. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz also showed improvement, with a seven-day average of 13.2 million barrels per day, representing 77% of prewar levels according to Kpler data. The combination of signals suggested that the disruption premium built into prices in recent weeks was beginning to unwind.

Despite Tuesday's sharp decline, both benchmarks remain on course for substantial monthly gains, with Brent up roughly 15% and WTI up around 5.7% for September, reflecting how much the earlier supply disruption fears had lifted prices.

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Macro Events

US Consumer Confidence Crashes to 81.9 in September, Far Below Forecasts, as Inflation Fears and Rate Anxiety Mount

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index plunged 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, missing economist forecasts of 89.0 by the widest margin in recent memory and prompting comparisons to the collapse seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. The prior month's reading was also revised down to 88.6 from 89.4, compounding the deterioration. The drop marked the lowest reading in more than a decade and hit across every demographic, political affiliation, and income bracket.

The Present Situation Index fell to 109.3 from 117.2, as consumers' views on current business conditions turned negative and assessments of the jobs market worsened. The Expectations Index, which measures consumers' six-month outlook, declined to 63.6 from 69.5, driven by weaker business and labor outlooks. On a six-month moving average, the steepest confidence declines were seen among households earning $125,000 to $149,000 annually, while Gen Z and Millennials led the drop by age group.

Inflation anxiety intensified alongside the confidence drop. The average 12-month inflation outlook rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, and the median outlook climbed to 5.1%. The share of consumers anticipating higher interest rates surged 5.2 percentage points to 68.4%, reflecting widespread concern that the Federal Reserve will continue raising rates. Elevated Treasury yields and oil-driven inflation fears have kept bond markets under pressure, further weighing on sentiment.

US equity futures edged higher on the day as oil prices and Treasury yields pulled back modestly from recent multi-year highs, providing some relief. Gold gained ground amid geopolitical uncertainty and persistent rate concerns, though analysts cautioned that its upside remained limited given the continued strength in the dollar.

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Canada GDP Flat in July After Three Months of Growth, August Seen Rebounding 0.2%

Canada's economy stalled in July, with Statistics Canada reporting gross domestic product unchanged from the prior month, snapping a three-consecutive-month streak of expansion. June's growth was revised upward to 0.4%, making the July pause more pronounced by comparison. Manufacturing weakness and softening trade were the primary drags, offsetting gains in construction and utilities.

StatCan's advance estimate points to a 0.2% rebound in August, suggesting the stall was temporary. The July data landed ahead of the full impact of U.S. tariffs on the Canadian economy, a factor markets are watching closely as a potential headwind to future growth.

Canadian bond yields slipped following the release, reflecting expectations that soft growth could keep the Bank of Canada on an easing path. TSX futures were nearly flat, indicating equity markets absorbed the data without a sharp reaction.

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Crypto Events

Bitcoin Stalls Below $85,000 as ETF Inflows Weaken and Rate Fears Mount

Bitcoin traded in a tight range between $82,807 and $84,545 on September 29, settling near $83,150 as a confluence of macro pressures kept prices from breaking through a dense supply wall above $84,000 to $85,200. Long-term holders continued selling into any rally, while surging US bond yields weighed on stocks and precious metals simultaneously, limiting appetite for non-yielding assets.

US Bitcoin ETFs recorded just $31 million in net inflows on September 28, a sharp sign of weakening institutional demand. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust was the lone bright spot, pulling in $54.84 million and adding roughly 657 BTC to lift its total holdings back above 800,000 BTC, but outflows elsewhere dragged the overall figure down.

On the corporate treasury front, Strategy resumed Bitcoin purchases after several weeks of silence, adding 950 BTC to its holdings. The move reignited a debate highlighted by Strive about whether accumulating more Bitcoin actually increases per-share exposure, a distinction obscured by headline treasury figures.

Despite the near-term softness, Bitcoin is on pace for its best September on record. A 7.33% monthly gain has narrowly edged past September 2024's 7.29% return, though the record will not be confirmed until the monthly candle closes on September 30. Analysts note that the broader trend since August 19 remains an uptrend, with BTC up 28% over that stretch, but momentum has cooled as markets price in Federal Reserve rate increases and a possible additional hike in October. A HashKey Group researcher argued that a second Fed hike poses a greater threat to Bitcoin than the Senate's failed CLARITY Act vote. Rising US credit card stress at multi-year highs and tighter household financial conditions add further headwinds if conditions continue to deteriorate.

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Bitwise Launches First US Spot NEAR ETF on NYSE Arca with Staking Rewards

Bitwise Asset Management launched the Bitwise NEAR ETF, ticker NRR, on NYSE Arca on September 29, making it the first spot exchange-traded product in the United States offering direct exposure to NEAR Protocol. The fund carries a 0.75% annual management fee and stakes its NEAR holdings in-house, with rewards targeting approximately 5% annually flowing to shareholders through the fund's net asset value.

The launch comes as NEAR has surged roughly 180% over the prior 30 days, reflecting broader investor interest in the protocol. Bitwise highlighted NEAR Intents, a cross-chain liquidity and settlement protocol that has processed more than $32 billion in volume, as a key draw for the fund. The firm also pointed to projections that global agentic commerce, a market in which NEAR is positioning itself as infrastructure, could reach $5 trillion by 2030.

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Healthcare Events

Eli Lilly Says Zepbound Outperforms Higher-Dose Wegovy in New Weight Loss Data, and Touts Foundayo Edge Over Ozempic Pill

Eli Lilly released new clinical data on September 29 showing that its obesity drug Zepbound delivered greater weight loss than a higher-dose version of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, extending Lilly's advantage in the fiercely contested GLP-1 obesity market. The data builds on the earlier SURMOUNT-5 head-to-head trial, in which patients taking Zepbound lost roughly 20.2% of their body weight on average over 72 weeks compared with 13.7% for those on standard-dose Wegovy, a difference of approximately 50 pounds versus 33 pounds. The new release specifically addresses Novo's higher-dose Wegovy formulation, a key point of contention as Novo has argued that comparisons using its older dose understated its drug's performance.

On the same day, Lilly separately promoted the advantages of its oral GLP-1 drug Foundayo, which contains the active ingredient orforglipron, over Novo's oral semaglutide pill, known as Ozempic pill, in a diabetes analysis reported by Reuters. Foundayo has already received regulatory attention in multiple markets, with Lilly having filed for approval in the European Union for a type 2 diabetes indication and planning U.S. and additional filings later in 2026.

The dual data releases underscore Lilly's push to assert dominance across both injectable and oral GLP-1 therapies as the competitive landscape intensifies. Novo has previously filed legal complaints arguing that Lilly's advertising campaigns draw misleading comparisons using the older Wegovy dose, making the new higher-dose data a particularly pointed development in the rivalry between the two companies.

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Stick figure drawing doodles 10LightStar01 is live!

Stick figure drawing doodles 10LightStar01 is live!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hq9CwopUH1s

This is a fever dream of a digital age—a sprawling, surrealist tapestry where crochet patterns meet high-speed police chases, and the Grim Reaper is just another guy trying to manage an office.

Here is the story of The Day the Grid Glitched.

The Morning Shift

The day began in a flurry of #ModernCrochet and chaos. At the local craft guild, a "Magical Crochet Gargoyle Quitter" was throwing in the towel, leaving behind a trail of freeform stars and loose ends. Meanwhile, in the corporate underworld, the Grim Reaper CEO adjusted his tie at his administrative desk. "It’s my panel," he hissed to a room of trembling interns, "and you will respect the filing system."

Outside, the physical world was losing its grip on reality. A green avocado was spotted zip-lining across the forest canopy, screaming "Wee!" while a dairy cow and a buffalo experienced love at first sight on the prairie. It was beautiful, until the "Authorized Official Shambulance" sped by with off-key sirens, driven by a DoorDash driver who had clearly taken a wrong turn at the interstate.

The Midday Madness

By noon, the legal system was buckling. A divorce attorney was arguing for a 4% inflation alimony increase, while a stubborn police officer attempted to ticket a driver for doing 55 mph, despite the driver’s GPS claiming otherwise.

In the skies, things weren't much better. An airplane pilot abandoned the cockpit—not because of an emergency, but to fix a sewer leak in the bathroom. This left the County Sheriff’s helicopter pilot to pick up the slack, shouting the command code "Accel UR L8 twerk" into his AI navigator.

Back on the ground, the "Microwave Preventive Maintenance Team" (composed entirely of trolls in tin foil hats) was conducting a rigorous inspection of a breakroom, while nearby, a police officer and his best friend were formally interrogating a hairball.

The Evening Gala

As the sun set, a tarnished copper green armadillo drone took flight from the roof of a skyscraper, filming the most anticipated event of the year: the wedding of the Grim Reaper and the Reapress. They exchanged vows of "invisible threat control" while a dancing xenophobic xylophone provided the music.

However, the party was crashed by a Giant Plushy Octopus looking for hugs and a "Slip and Fall Droidbot" seeking a lawsuit settlement. In the corner, Holly Bitcoin gave tap dance lessons to a singing pickle, while a group of mushroom soldiers set up tents inside a refrigerator’s cooling system to escape the heat.

The Final Stitch

As the clock struck midnight on March 8, 2026, the digital world began to "URL barf." Google Meet was exposing phone numbers, and the #DreamTrackAI was telling everyone to "try again tomorrow."

The chaos finally settled into a quiet, bizarre peace. A Jack Rabbit and a Skunk shared a moment in the woods, and a single claymation blue bird tucked its family into a nest made of crochet scrap yarn. The world was a mess of unredacted reports, stuck cruise controls, and singing rainbows—but as the Star and Hammer cartoon faded to black, one thing was clear: nobody was above the law, but everyone was definitely above the limit for weirdness.

The scene opens on a high-stakes, high-altitude pursuit. Jack, a lanky cartoon cat with whiskers that twitch like radio antennas, is dangling from a vine. Hammer, a stout mouse wearing a tiny tool belt, is standing on Jack’s head, squinting through a pair of brass binoculars.

"Target sighted," Hammer squeaked, pointing a tiny paw toward the horizon. "And he’s moving fast."

Zip-lining across the triple-canopy rainforest at a reckless velocity was Avocado. He wasn't just a fruit; he was a daredevil with a pit of pure adrenaline. Wearing tiny goggles and a GoPro strapped to his pebbly green skin, Avocado let out a high-pitched, "WEEEEEEEE!" as he blurred past a troop of confused howler monkeys.

The Chase is On

Jack didn't have a zip-line, but he did have cartoon physics. He grabbed a passing toucan by the feet, and with a rhythmic "Bang! Bang!" of Hammer’s literal mallet against a hollow log to create a beat, they swung into the sky.

"We need to intercept him before he hits the Cloud Forest!" Hammer shouted over the wind. "If he zips into the 'Modern Crochet' sector, we'll lose him in the yarn fog!"

The Obstacles:

  • The Sourdough Rapids: A river of fermented dough they had to skip across.
  • The Giant Plushy Octopus: A sentient obstacle that tried to hug them mid-air.
  • The Interior Microwave Team: A group of trolls in tin foil hats who were trying to "inspect" the jungle for grease fires.

The Final Stretch

Avocado was gaining speed, his pit humming like a drone motor. He was headed straight for a transitional train scene—a steam engine locomotive puffing purple smoke across a trestle bridge.

"Now, Jack! Use the yarn smudging technique!" Hammer commanded.

Jack pulled a scrap of neon-pink crochet string from his pocket. With the grace of a Vaudeville performer defying gravity, he whipped the string forward. It looped around Avocado’s stem just as the fruit was about to clear the canopy.

ZIP—THWIP—BOING!

The tension on the crochet line acted like a bungee cord. Avocado didn't crash; he performed a perfect, mid-air 360-degree flip, his tiny goggles fogging up with joy.

The Landing

They all tumbled onto a soft mossy log near a Box Turtle who was busy falling in love with an Armadillo. Avocado bounced twice, his GoPro still recording the whole "Brainrot" investigation.

"Why were you running?" Jack panted, his fur standing up in static-electrified tufts.

Avocado adjusted his goggles and looked at them with wide, watery eyes. "Running? I wasn't running. I was just trying to get to the Holly Bitcoin Tap Dance Lessons before the early bird special ended."

Hammer looked at Jack. Jack looked at the Armadillo.

"Well," Hammer sighed, putting his mallet back in his belt. "At least we got the footage. This is going to kill on #DreamTrackAI."

VLq-x3ou19E untitled
0TMbRWk4WjI The making of Jack and Hammer, cartoon cat and mouse, bang
27LTuniln4k untitled
r384VZLXu3A It's go time with Grandma and hot grits in the ring
Ttbtm4D_gWo pole vault remix
hxicWioIX38 How to take the loose end of crochet stitch, put it over the main strand, fold loop
_Tn8GDwQxAU Police officer can't stop car due to cruise control being stuck #crazycars #carwars
HIXe_nKGXwA Untitled Help I can't put my foot in a shoe without a hole in the shoe
SbURuV-AfKw Untitled Magical crochet gargoyle quitter I Quit doodle art animation
wXRoZkjgg1Y pingrok Being hold off in an ambulance
Ws8yubqGV9k Join the National Guard.
Y42d9L-TPl4 Untitled You U Ewe and I, eye aye have gone on a date a couple of times haven't we?
UK9nCeVtutU Untitled door dash ambulance Authorized official shambulance services
s0zhJiIvVI4 How to skip one crochet, stitch and count to 3 #moderncrochet #beginners
6rfXhtSP5xk Cuddlefish jellyfish love at first sight in the ocean, prairie of plankton.
LGU4J83SAxs Green avocado goes zip lining A top the forest canopy Wee
arAPCXGIWCs Untitled Hapoy Jake Patrick Wesley Day
jS4zJkPKeY8 Untitled I love ❤️ you Singing pickle
qzs14JC3VUY Holly Bitcoin Tap Dance Lessons
PzLApGgcrDw Unlisted cat Video Bob chicken Crane
ZSNHIl-H_YA Trolls in tin foil hats Following.\n The microwave team That looks like fun
cK5lfQtYRL0 Ma.\n King a crochet larger one, 2, 3, Stitching.\n A square. Basic beginner, crafting.
iao2E0zcS0Y The life of bug, Mushroom soldiers set up tents inside of refrigerator cooling system #theoutcasts
jsnY8MNuZ34 Best cooling system on the planet fixed by maintenance refrigerator repair #applianceexperts
_UGblsuJUnw My artificial intelligence tool on YouTube is really popular, it's telling me to try again tomorrow.
5VYC607cWVw #DreamTrackAI pretty little baby, wiggle loves give me
WWB1d8vomoI Gorilla vs Laughing cactus toy
8kKjbmBxytA Hippopotamus manatee love at first sight
UuRPSEgUONw Untitled Sunshine smiles, fluffy ponies Singing rainbow
MuaLc-TsHb8 unlisted can't touch this
Oh1h3EYHT6w The interior microwave, preventive maintenance checks and services team Inspections
qytG5WJmjH0 Me police officer and best friend interrogate a hairball #brainrot very bizarre investigation
aqgdVA9zh90 Jack McAuley Doggy Day Care
1hJy1EeMquw Unlisted Unclassified
zMfSaHTThaE How To freeform crochet flower 🌼 #doodle
dKb1qRc3o9o yeti best friend and cactus doing winter dance ballet in snow
hKynH3bUS1s Dairy cow and Buffalo love at first sight on the prairie
CxNKsmayhGY Crochet string scrap 🪹 nest for baby birds
nDzxUT-XaqY Untitled Steam Engine LocomotiveTrain transitional scene
GQGUaP3GCH8 Geminisyria Cooking Pizza in outdoor Stone fire pit with Trollba
Avz8V3n_GMg The airplane pilot has left the cockpit and is fixing a sewer leak in the bathroom. #squawkbox
tpOQC0ZO2Qs The making of cartoon Jack and Doodle Fire Rescue Airplane
J2QnlZxfPDE Unlisted
zO11ZBlTuk0 untitled cat reflections
vxy39kHdeYo Grim Reaper CEO It's my panel and you will respect me, Administrative desk job clerk opening
82j_JU_L2Hg When space force attends a retirement party for National Guard, Major Foughcup
Q3gfpuOd1tU I've tried to like people. I really have, and then they start talking and breathing And stuff
dA7Hm9ZCG3Q Divorce attorney Request 4% inflation alimony from divorce judge For ex, wife, survival
W20EkPyA8h4 Untitled pointing to the sky pose
U6hhfz3YXyg untitled
EMsniptQwao Out of control ambulance in the middle of the interstate Off key sirens #emsweek
O2CdiQDAgOw Me running through under water transpatent cables in the ocean with emoji balls
m_UBIWxyKjc Gerbils and mice scratching a record
kzE4Z4gWIgQ Untitled working with grown men in the corn 🌽
tpWdK6sqUd0 Grim reaper and best friend crash a stadium concert giving tourists a tour Through the arena.
DrMa2hwb6Ts Untitled Below river window displays local attraction
Q02wFzUWqq4 The Curiosity Hook: The making of Jack Star and Hammer Cartoon
ICFUxXR_hBA Jack Rabbit Skunk Love in the woods
9KZe4RnXfOA Armadillo box turtle love near fern moss log deep in the forest.
FqthJO69_oA County Sheriff helicopter pilot gives command code to GPS AI- "Accel UR L8 twerk" #quadcopters
BL6RojCX47Q She didnt just dance, she defied gravity, vaudeville big band era
lrhNN8WfdVY Tarnished copper green armadillo drone takes flight
Nop7msLpFbo Ice Police arrest Oticfyptokmiss Rodriguez during building ladder escape
VfgRh7Ihu_8 Police arrest trollGPTchat
tfiQpdf9xuE untitled
ceU9T6Y--C8 Slip and Fall Droidbot Doggabuls Synergy Drink TransOracle Lipplate lawsuite Zoroke partner
NstJxUjDXOg Untitled unitard, yoga tree pose
Zx6BBFXOXmE My GPS says I was doing 55 miles an hour, Stubborn Hard-headed police officer Traffic stop
oopFOTBwRKA How to use yarn as a blending tool for smudging, Transitioning Pencil pen drawings. Art Sketch Tip
FkjnyVeY-Mk Unlisted Partial Unredacted Committee on Judiciary Jack Smith Report
i_naFvEeaP8 The vacuum hose vent safety cleaning drone To reach high places inside the home Prevent slip fall
8EepbpHH5gs Google's clients are having a URL barf 403 error #remotejobs #sidehustle
9OxrKTj2p-Y March 8, 2026
hqyDrKMckmA CPU central processing unit green energy HVAC BOILER room cleaning maintenance
iS6iZjXv8Ok The claymation cartoon story of spaghetti and noodle, the Blue Bird family Nest
7zT96UKY9yY Surrender Burart
S-fYKAxS22Y Security alert US embassy Doha, Shelter in place, Travel advisory To avoid region Recommend
wXMNDNyadOY Untitled Books: My husband John is a Senator Kennedy
bGrUFNfeOBo Man wins Presidential Medal of Freedom for missing the woman He dated and ex. Husband
M7h1tuBSAaU No love anticipated from Chicago windy city or Detroit 8 miles, Eminem burn #seo
bjdsRjfinfM How to crochet a free form star Random stitches and more 10LightStar01 is live!
8U1Yd92_9Tk Mirror Love Bird
RXg88dMgxf0 The dancing xenophobic xylophones, World stage collaboration
C2JpWEjuXB4 Happy Valentines Day from crochet Pup stitch
p5qNmwVz2d8 Google Meet calling replacing (legacy) Duo Exposes your phone number and email
Ln_4tmLAMSY Would a woman hire male lawyer knowing that he had cheated on his wife? #divorcelaw #divorcelawyer
a9IGBuS2a-E Logmei silly hairball dance
boavDBvWgjs Flashing police car drone lifts off from a top of very tall roof of a skyscraper.
jr_Yfh3y78c He set the country backwards with his domestic violent attitude with physical abuse towards me
WpBEkq0gPWw Untitled Remix
gPtMY579pjQ This guy is admitting he's purposely manipulating people by playing dumb frauds & scam
KzvNCrlxa8s Giant plushy octopus hugs couple
-pmCMnQut-E Police arrest ogoniff sleeping on mailbox Dropbox #firstamendment #DreamScreenAI #aperturefoundation
CKYUeWHFczo Lock him up , - No one is above the law
9pFR8UEBsxw The first steps, and last steps are not needed for the crochet heart pattern
PzdL5mn0Baw The blossoming love of the 2 colored people, He loves his wife so very much
pMFd1mZiJRk Grim Reaper & Reapress Get married, Do you abide by invisible threats control According to his rules
n4nf4bB-Jo8 When active duty military shows up to the space force
EYLww4NNraI Was this a mistake? Remembering the old spark, Caring For an abuser

Clearing The Eir - Rethinking Our Approach

Hello again. It's been awhile.

I've never abandoned the high-level idea, the mission, or the belief that something needs to be done. I've largely been busy accepting what was difficult to accept:

My approach was never going to work!

It was the subtle and repeated shift in body language the moment I mention blockchain or crypto — no matter what other words accompanied those — when I tried to pitch the idea in the real world. It was the fundamental acceptance that Quadriga happened so long ago now — seven years — that fewer and fewer people in the community even know what happened! And it was certain experiences and events where I was left with no practical and reasonable choice but to temporarily abandon the bitcoin bubble and blockchain community I'd considered home for more than half a decade. To become — an outsider again.

But all setbacks inevitably create new opportunities.

What seemed at the time like the greatest setback, the worst imaginable outcome, has been a blessing in disguise.

It's always at the worst moments that we are forced to adapt and adjust and rethink things in ways that we never would have done in the first place.

It's not unlike Quadriga itself, a situation so horrible and unimaginable in its wide-reaching effects, a nightmare that just kept getting worse, and for me, an endlessly widening gap between what could have been and a harsh reality that had to be accepted. It was hard to watch.

It was never about Quadriga or even bitcoin or blockchain or crypto. It was fundamentally about people and community and taking care of one another. It's about education and prevention. It's about helping people figure out what to do when something goes wrong. It's about dignity, justice, recovery, and refusing to simply write someone off because their situation is difficult. The hardest situations spawn the greatest opportunities.

I needed to build something that can exist in the real world. Something that involves ordinary people, local businesses, community organizations, and people who have experienced financial harm themselves. Something that could actually work and scale in a constructive way without depending on niche fringe worldviews.

I am just one person with a vision. I don't have all the answers, and I don't pretend to. Some of the things I'm proposing are going to be extremely difficult. Some may seem impossible. There are legal, technical, financial, organizational, and community challenges that I haven't solved yet. And what I'm proposing requires a large scale to even function. That takes a competent, multidisciplinary team.

That's not a reason for me to stop. It just means I have to find the people who can help solve them. And the people who will put in the time and effort and not give up even when something seems impossible. One person at a time.

To build that, I had to dramatically alter the approach and the pitch.

Quadriga Initiative just wasn't doing it.

And that's where EIR comes in.

EIR is the new name for what I've been trying to build, but more importantly, it's a much better description of what I actually mean.

The name has our three missions built into it:

Educatio. Education and prevention. Helping people recognize fraud, understand how these situations happen, and hopefully avoid becoming victims in the first place.

Iustitia. Justice. Helping people who have already been harmed understand what happened, what their options are, and where they might actually be able to go for help.

Recuperatio. Recovery and restoration. Finding ways to help people recover from financial harm and, wherever possible, restore something that was lost. Not just financially, but in terms of dignity and the sense that somebody actually cares what happened to them. To get participants to the point of full recovery and coming back to help others.

And then there is the name itself.

Eir also happens to be the name of a figure from Norse mythology associated with healing and care. I came across the connection and it felt too appropriate to ignore. Our mission is something as old as humanity itself.

And yet... It's short. It's simple. It's easy to say.

Eir is pronounced like air. And air is everywhere. None of us own it. And yet, we all depend on it. It's something we all share, regardless of where we come from or what we believe. Invisible, yet always present and undeniable, with effects we can't ignore.

That's the kind of thing I want EIR to become.

Not another ideology.

Not another tribe.

Not another corner of the internet where everyone already agrees with everyone else.

A diverse community.

A mission bringing together people who have been affected by financial harm, people who want to prevent it, businesses that want to stand for something larger than profits, people with technical skills, legal and investigative experience, researchers, community organizations, and anyone who simply wants to help.

Blockchain will likely still have a role somewhere in the back-end. But it is a tool, a record keeper. It was never the point. And it will never be a part of the pitch.

I want to build something to help real people in ways that have never been possible before.

And I need to be honest about what comes next.

I can't build this alone.

I have ideas. I have research. I have spent years thinking about the problem and working out mechanisms that would actually function at scale.

And I have a drive and dedication that won't let this drop.

But I am just one person.

I don't know everything. I don't have every skill to build this. I don't have enough time, money, knowledge, people-skills, or perspective to build this ambition alone. I have limited time, as will any of us.

I'm coming back here not with a finished product, but with an invitation.

I want to find (or rediscover) the people who can help turn this from an idea into something real. People who want their lives to matter in a large way, to build something bigger than themselves to make a real difference.

You may have skills I don't have.

You may have a perspective I don't have.

You may even think parts of my ideas are completely crazy.

Good.

I'd rather have you tell me in explicit detail why something won't work than politely nod while I build the wrong thing for another five years.

What I need now is a community willing to explore what could work, and a serious and diverse team that wants to make a real impact on the world.

Not for a specific disaster. Not for Quadriga, bitcoin, blockchain. For something much bigger.

It's about the fundamental question of what we do when people get harmed.

Do we simply accept that some losses are too difficult to recover from? Do we blame and shame? Do we chase revenge and fight over a shrinking pie?

Or will we keep looking for ways to help people back up? Constructive, inclusive solutions that connect right to the core of our economic value engine.

That's what I'm here to work on.

I'm hoping to do it with a dedicated team.

Maybe that team includes you?


Monday, September 28, 2026

E-commerce Industry News Recap 🔥 Week of September 28th, 2026

Hi r/ecommerce - I'm Paul and I follow the e-commerce industry closely for my Shopifreaks E-commerce Newsletter. Every week for the past 5 years I've posted a summary recap of the week's top stories on this subreddit, which I cover in depth with sources in the full edition.

Let's dive in to this week's top e-commerce news from Edition #297...


STAT OF THE WEEK: Monthly U.S. visits to roughly 100 of the biggest news sites dropped to 47.6M in July, down from more than 70M at their 2024 high, according to Similarweb data. Traffic topped out that year before Google’s AI Overviews and Meta’s wider rollout of its AI assistant started keeping readers off publisher pages, and direct visits to the sites have since dropped 25%. AI chatbots now send those same sites more than 150k referrals a month, up from almost none, but that doesn’t come close to covering the more than 22M monthly visits the sites have lost since 2024.


McDonald’s unveiled the McDonald’s Media Network at its investor day last week, a new division of the company that will sell ads from other brands across its app, self-order kiosks, menu boards, and drive-thru screens. It had been testing the concept since August at 450 company-owned restaurants in the US, which is just about 3% of its roughly 14,000 US locations, most of which are franchise-owned. McDonald’s plans to eventually roll out the ads to more stores, though it hasn’t indicated if or how it would split the revenue with franchise owners or if franchises will even be included. So far, the ads just show up after you’ve ordered, while waiting for your food. (Uh oh, did McDonald’s just find an incentive to make the wait time longer?) Global CMO Morgan Flatley pitched it as “an opportunity to generate revenue for the system, with little in the way of additional costs, no operational complexity, and no disruption to our customer experience.” The timing is good for the company too, as US traffic fell 4.5% last quarter, sales growth stalled out, and the stock just hit a 52-week low after CEO Chris Kempczinski told CNBC, “We’re not expecting things to change.” (Is that the same guy who couldn’t stand the taste of his own “product” in a viral video?)


Not to be outdone by the Hamburglar, guess who’s also entering the ad business? Citi is creating a new unit called Citi Commerce Media that will let brands advertise to its 70M+ customers based on their spending histories, according to Business Insider. The ads will target users inside Citi’s mobile app and on its website, as well as on outside platforms like Facebook. Citi says it can link its ads to measurable business impacts based on intel from 6.5B annual transactions across more than 700 spending categories. Citi already ran a pilot with health and beauty brands that it says produced an average 15% lift in spending compared to people who weren’t shown ads. But at what cost?! The Business Insider article didn’t mention anything about ROAS, just revenue increase, which can be a bit deceiving.


Last Monday, I reported that Amazon blocked Meta’s new Muse agent from making purchases on its marketplace. Later that same day, Shopify stepped in to fill the void. The next day, PayPal joined the party. Muse locates products through Shopify Catalog and runs the order over the Universal Commerce Protocol, with payments running through Shop Pay, which already holds a buyer’s shipping and billing details. The transactions aren’t fully agentic, or even one-tap, yet. Muse simply finds the products, loads them into a cart, and then shoppers get handed to an in-app browser to finish the transaction. Similar to how Muse works with Link by Stripe, its first payments partner that Muse launched with, each purchase draws a credential good for just that transaction, so the card number never reaches Muse. As for PayPal… pretty much the same setup as Shopify. The big perk of PayPal though is that it reaches a much wider network of businesses. Shop Pay almost exclusively touches retail e-commerce, while PayPal works across travel, hospitality, SaaS, and other categories that Muse can assist users in.


Amazon began rolling out free multichannel selling tools to US sellers that let them connect accounts on eBay, Shopify, TikTok, and Walmart and run those channels from the same Seller Central workspace as their Amazon store. A seller can edit a product description once and have it reformatted for every channel carrying the item, as well as send a Shopify or Walmart order to Amazon’s Multichannel Fulfillment with tracking passed back to the original platform. A profit dashboard combines each linked account’s sales, ad spend, and traffic, replacing the need for manual spreadsheets or third-party data consolidation tools. Amazon admits that linking a channel provides it with that channel’s sales data, but said that it won’t share the information with other sellers or use it to inform its retail business. Though I do find it interesting that Amazon specifically wrote “retail business” in its announcement without mentioning its “ads business.” Accidental oversight or strategic omission? As much crap as I give Amazon, they truly are a brilliant company. Rather than being on the receiving end of product data management and synchronization, Amazon has positioned itself to be the master copy.


Best Buy is launching a TikTok Shop storefront in late October with close to 10,000 products, including headphones, cameras, laptops, and small appliances from major brands. The storefront will allow shoppers to buy products from Best Buy without leaving TikTok, just in time for the holiday season. Best Buy will fulfill the orders themselves, same as they do with non-marketplace items sold on their own website, and shoppers will be able to return eligible purchases directly at a Best Buy store or by mail — a great perk that separates the retailer from most other brands that sell on TikTok Shop. The partnership also unlocks new ways for brands to work with TikTok creators. Brands that advertise through Best Buy Ads will be able to run creator videos as paid campaigns with shoppable links, then measure which creators and products drove sales using Best Buy’s own shopper data.


YouTube is expanding Ask YouTube, its experimental AI search tool, into a product research tool that pulls information from videos and outside sources to build product comparison tables, with viewers able to continue asking questions from a video’s watch page. For example, if you search for information about the new iPhone Duo, Ask YouTube can show you how it stacks up against better foldable phones from rivals like Samsung and Google. Is this the beginning of AI eating your video views, like it has your website traffic? A YouTube spokesperson told CNET, “Our goal is to connect viewers with the right video faster. With Ask YouTube, we expect watch time to remain steady or improve.” The spokesperson compared the tool to other AI features, such as chapters and AI summaries, which they said “showed no negative impact on watch time; instead, they helped retain viewers.” They added that videos included in the AI search’s answers will “prominently display the video title and channel name.” YouTube says more than 140M people used Ask YouTube in June alone, which either indicates that the tool is really good, or that people’s attention spans are shrinking to the point that they don’t even want to watch full videos anymore.


Earlier this month, I reported that Temu appeared to be pushing products on Facebook and Instagram through fake creator accounts. Fortune shared the story of Ya Lili, a creator account with 183k Instagram followers and 129k Facebook followers whose content ran in over 100k Temu ad campaigns throughout the 16 months ending in April 2026, which is about 225 campaigns per day. Temu spent as much as $962M on ads like these across all of its “creators” during the same time period in the UK and Europe, according to Online Risk Labs research. Well, now Fortune reports that Temu has mostly stopped the practice. It originally broke the story on August 31 and said that Temu was running 4,900 separate partnership campaigns a day at the time. However, by September 4, Ya Lili only had five ads appearing on Meta platforms, likely as remnants from previously scheduled ad buys, and the account, which previously posted multiple times per day, had stopped posting entirely on September 7. Fortune also reports that Temu maintained its ad budget for “legitimate creators,” but that ads in Ireland, Cyprus, Austria, Denmark, Latvia, and Slovenia ceased almost entirely, according to ORL, which might have to do with laws in those countries against misleading advertising.


Meta could owe more than $200B in penalties after a New Mexico jury found Facebook committed more than 43M violations of the state’s consumer protection law by misleading users about how it protected their data after the Cambridge Analytica breach. Though if history teaches us anything, it’ll probably end up with a slap on the wrist and pay a fraction of that amount. New Mexico sued Facebook back in 2021, after a personality quiz app harvested data from about 87M Facebook profiles and passed it to Cambridge Analytica. The state accused Facebook of misleading users about how much control they had over their data, and about how seriously it investigated the third-party app developers who were scraping it. The suit also claimed Facebook made false statements about fighting hate speech and misinformation on its platform. Flash forward to last week: The jury sided with the state on 26 of the 29 statements it challenged, agreeing that Facebook misled people about how much control they had over their data and about its investigations into data-harvesting app developers. However, it rejected the state’s claims about how Facebook removed harmful content. New Mexico is seeking the $5,000 maximum for each violation, and the judge will set penalties at an October 1 hearing.


ChatGPT can set a cookie called obi that stays in a browser for up to a year and can send conversion and page data back to OpenAI when the user visits sites running its ad pixel, according to independent researcher Buchodi. The researcher didn’t directly observe OpenAI linking that off-site activity to specific ChatGPT accounts, as that would happen on OpenAI’s servers, but the setup would allow for it since it works the way a standard third-party ad cookie does. OpenAI classifies obi as an analytics cookie, which means it could still be set for users who allowed analytics cookies but turned down marketing ones, despite collecting and sending ad conversion data. OpenAI told Buchodi it would pass the findings along internally but hasn’t explained publicly why the cookie is labeled analytics.


Meta unveiled new consumer hardware at its Connect event, including a VR device and a handheld gadget. Its VR Glasses are the company’s first new VR device since the Quest 3S in 2024 and are priced at $1,299 with shipping set for spring 2027. Notably, the glasses are super lightweight, weighing about a fifth as much as the Quest 3, because the Qualcomm chip, battery, and storage sit in a separate puck that clips to a pocket and connects to the glasses via a cable. Meta’s palm-sized handheld device, called the Muse Charm, is built around its Muse AI agent and puts an animated Muse character on a 2″ touch screen with front and rear cameras so the agent can see what’s around it. Charms can also detect and interact with one another, though Meta hasn’t said what they can actually do. My guess is some creepy, privacy-invasive shit. Meta hasn’t announced a price, but says the devices will go on sale in time for the holidays this December. Despite looking like an old school Tamagotchi device, Meta says that Charm is not a toy and isn’t marketed to kids.


The Pentagon can label Anthropic a supply chain risk, which prevents the US military and defense contractors from using its models, according to a 2-1 decision by a federal appeals court. The Pentagon applied the label in March after Anthropic refused to drop contract terms barring the military from using Claude for lethal autonomous warfare or domestic surveillance, and because the Pentagon relied on two separate legal designations, Anthropic had to fight them in two courts. A federal judge in San Francisco struck down one of them in August, but the DC Circuit has now upheld the other. The two judges in the majority said there was ample support for the Pentagon’s conclusion that Claude’s built-in restrictions, which had repeatedly blocked government users from completing requested tasks, posed a national security risk, while the dissenting judge argued the law targets suppliers that sabotage or secretly manipulate their products, not a company that openly enforces its own usage restrictions. Anthropic says it’s considering all options, including further review.


Amazon is still pursuing its goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2040, but doesn’t exactly know how it’s going to do so, according to its Chief Sustainability Officer Kara Hurst. Hurst said at an Axios event that “we are still striving towards that target,” but later added that she is “not going to sit here and say, ‘We know all the ways that we’re going to do this.'” Honestly, how could they, given how fast the world is changing? AI wasn’t even part of the conversation in 2019 when Amazon made the pledge, but now it’s undoubtedly causing emission growth at the company. Last year, carbon intensity rose YoY for the first time since Amazon began tracking the metric, erasing some of the progress it had made since 2022. Hurst said “we hold ourselves accountable” to the 2040 climate pledge and that the “commitment hasn’t changed,” but no one knows what that accountability actually looks like, as no consequence has ever been disclosed. Accountability could simply mean issuing a corporate apology in 2040 and moving the goalpost another decade.


Speaking of Amazon’s carbon emission goals… The company co-founded the Climate Pledge Fashion Coalition with Stella McCartney, a British luxury fashion house, and Canopy, a nonprofit dedicated to protecting the world’s forests, bringing in more than 60 brands, retailers, manufacturers and material makers. Members will pool their purchases of lower-carbon materials so fiber and fabric suppliers can count on steady, committed orders, which, in turn, will allow them to lower their prices. Members also get access to a library of more than 100 ways to cut emissions from fashion materials, with guidance for each type of fiber and a directory of companies making the alternatives. The goal of the coalition is to get those more sustainable materials priced at or below conventional fabrics, as fashion brands don’t want to pay a premium for lower-carbon materials, while the startups making them can’t cut prices without scale. I’ve been saying for years that someone should do this with plastic bottle alternatives, and I’d love it if Amazon spearheaded that next.


Gemini gave at least one answer that could cost a buyer money or land them the wrong product on 56% of 220 shopping questions on its free tier and 54% on its paid tier, the worst of four AI chatbots tested, according to a study by Product.ai. Claude’s paid tier did far better than its free tier, at 21% versus 44%, while Perplexity scored best out of all four chatbots on both tiers at 15% free and 14% paid. ChatGPT landed somewhere in the middle, at 19% free and 17% paid. Product.ai asked every chatbot each question five times, and Gemini contradicted its own earlier answer with no new information to justify the change on 29% of questions, more often than any rival. Most prices were accurate, with 85% of verifiable answers matching the seller’s listed price exactly, but the wrong ones were rarely close, missing by a median of $300. Moral of the story: AI still kind of sucks at comparative shopping.


Shopify began rolling out a redesigned Admin to all merchants, with new colors, type, and icons on every page, and a more prominently positioned Sidekick. The store picker, search, and notifications have moved out of the top bar and into a side navigation that merchants can collapse when they want more room. Sidekick now opens as a small chat window floating at the foot of each page and expands into a side panel for longer tasks, because Shopify says merchants increasingly use the assistant as their main way of working, with daily Sidekick sessions up 4.8x from 2025 to 2026. Admin UI extensions pick up the new styles automatically, but custom App Home interfaces built without Polaris web components stay on the old look until their developers migrate. Small request while you’re at it, Shopify… Can you make my selected date range stick when I switch between reports? I’m tired of resetting it every single time.


eBay is expanding Ship with eBay, its managed shipping program, to more US sellers with personal accounts in categories like Collectibles, Fashion, Electronics, and Home & Garden. Instead of sellers picking a carrier and setting their own shipping charge, eBay gives the buyer an option between standard and expedited shipping at checkout, and then delivers a prepaid USPS or FedEx label to the seller. Eligible listings must have a Buy It Now price of $200 or less, weigh less than 70 pounds, measure in at less than 130 inches combined length and girth, and both the buyer and seller must be located in the US. The weird part, as noted by Liz Morton of Value Added Resource, is that eBay collects the shipping fees and pays the carrier directly, yet it still charges sellers a Final Value Fee on the amount, which can range from 13% to 15% in most categories, even though that money never reached them. It sounds like eBay is being a greedy little pig when it comes to shipping.


Shopify released Shopcast, an Apple TV app that turns a television into a store dashboard for an office or warehouse. (No thanks, we prefer to stream episodes of The Office on our shop floor.) Merchants can use the remote to move through five views reporting sales, orders, units sold, and average order value, with retail and geography views that show the busiest store locations, compares online sales with Shopify POS, and plots incoming orders on a globe. Merchants running several stores can switch between them, with each shop’s data kept separate. The app itself is read-only, with totals refreshing through the day rather than streaming, and currently doesn’t offer any administrative capabilities, such as the ability to fulfill orders or edit products and pages. It’s a shame that the app doesn’t announce new orders in real-time as they come in with a loud cowbell ring or other customizable sound. It’s a missed opportunity to make the app something that merchants are glued to all day, celebrating as new sales come in.


Google introduced Live Avatar, a feature that creates an AI persona that can dynamically listen, see, and speak, complete with facial expressions. The tool is being positioned as something brands can use to create conversational experiences with customers that provide information to make better purchase decisions. For example, a skincare brand could put an avatar on its website that looks at a shopper through their webcam, asks about their skin type and concerns, and recommends products face to face, like a virtual beauty advisor. The avatar can also pull up product details, inventory, and company information in the background while it talks without skipping a beat, so the customer never has to wait for an answer, unlike those annoying AI customer service chatbots that make you wait while they pretend to type. Live Avatar is currently only available to Gemini Enterprise customers.


Meta and YouTube agreed to accept advertising for director Alex Gibney’s upcoming documentary about Elon Musk after reportedly rejecting it as political content, with Meta calling it an error and YouTube saying its system had temporarily restricted the ad. X, on the other hand, unapologetically rejected the ads and couldn’t give two fucks about making excuses, with Musk himself posting that “Dogshit is worth more respect than Gibney.” TikTok also rejected the ads and hasn’t budged. The four-hour documentary touches on Musk’s tech career, his political alliance with President Trump, and his personal life, including interviews with two of his baby mamas. “Musk” premiered at the Venice International Film Festival earlier this month and is set for theatrical release in the US on October 9.


Google is testing a Buy button on some Flipkart product listings in Gemini and AI Mode in India that takes shoppers directly to a Flipkart checkout flow without leaving the AI interface, according to TechCrunch. The checkout is Flipkart-branded rather than Google-hosted, and TechCrunch says it isn’t clear what technology powers the experience, though I’m assuming it runs on Google’s Universal Commerce Protocol. Only a small group of users can see it, and only on a limited set of phones, electronics, and accessories, but Google said it plans a wider rollout later in October, before India’s festive sales season. Google acquired a minority stake in Flipkart for $350M in 2024, and earlier this month, Google said Flipkart, which is majority-owned by Walmart, was among the merchants partnering with it to bring agentic shopping experiences to consumers in India.


Amazon is investing another $1.9B into its Delivery Service Partner program next year, aiming to lift average driver pay nationwide by $1 to nearly $24/hour. Wait, I thought DSP drivers worked for independent contractors and that Amazon had nothing to do with setting wages? So technically, the DSP owners can just keep the increased rates they receive, and Amazon can’t do anything about it, right? Amazon also announced at its annual Ignite Live conference that it’s adding surround-view cameras to its Rivian vans that warn drivers about cars, cyclists and pedestrians, with plans to have them in half of its fleet by year-end. The company also expects more than 20,000 pairs of its Smart Delivery Glasses, which show drivers real-time navigation and delivery details in their line of sight, in use by the end of 2027. The announcements about driver pay arrive weeks after New Jersey’s attorney general sued Amazon, arguing it is a monopsonist that sets pay and conditions for drivers it classifies as independent, while preventing them from unionizing and barring contractors from hiring one another’s drivers.


Square launched an integration with Apple Business that lets sellers manage how their physical locations appear on Apple Maps, Siri AI, Apple Wallet, and other Apple apps from the Square Dashboard. Hours, addresses, and phone numbers that sellers update in Square now carry over automatically to each connected location’s Apple Maps place card, and they can add buttons like Order, Delivery, or Book that link to their Square commerce pages. The integration is available in eight countries, including the US, UK, Japan, and Australia, and sellers in the US and Canada who aren’t on Apple Business yet can enroll from Square. The move follows Square’s recent integrations with ChatGPT and Claude, which also position Square as the hub of a seller’s online presence.


In lawsuits this week…

  • OpenAI is facing a proposed class action from two California ChatGPT users who allege that OpenAI presented the chatbot as a private exchange and never clearly disclosed that outside contractors would read and score real user conversations. The suit says that OpenAI’s automated filter misses personal details in chats about health, money, and legal problems, which the contractors are able to see in violation of multiple California consumer protection and privacy laws.
  • Depop has been sued again over its buyer-paid Marketplace Fee, this time by a shopper who says a $20.70 fee on a $400 purchase didn’t appear until the last screen before he paid. The complaint calls it “drip pricing” and claims that it stops buyers from comparing prices with rivals, while noting that eBay, which bought Depop in July, already shows fee-inclusive prices upfront for a similar fee in the UK and Australia.
  • X.com sued two men in London’s High Court, alleging they ran a network of Bitcoin accounts that posted duplicate crypto news and boosted each other with fake engagement to collect at least £207k (about $278k) in Creator Revenue Sharing payouts. X called the coordinated efforts “coordinated revenue sharing fraud” and wants the money back, plus at least £75k to cover the cost of its investigation. Personally, I think if X’s now-defunct creator revenue program was that easily exploitable, that’s on them, but that’s up to the courts to decide.
  • YouTube CEO Neal Mohan said the company won’t join Meta’s multistate child safety settlement, which requires a two-hour daily limit and an overnight block for users under 18, arguing that it has spent years on teen safety and is a “very different platform” from Meta. California Attorney General Rob Bonta said he’s willing to take YouTube and TikTok to court if needed to get them on board with the deal.
  • TikTok settled Alabama’s teen safety lawsuit for at least $100M without admitting wrongdoing, agreeing to cap teen use at two hours a day and block minors from the app between midnight and 6 a.m. The payout rises to as much as $300M if 40 more states sign similar deals. The Alabama deal is separate from Meta’s multistate settlement that YouTube refused to join, but it puts TikTok under nearly the same restrictions.
  • TikTok agreed to pay a £12.7M fine from the UK’s Information Commissioner’s Office, dropping its three-year appeal of the regulator’s finding that it let as many as 1.75M British children under 13 use the app without parental consent. TikTok said it still disagrees with the ruling but paid because the fine covers 2018 to 2020, before it added many of its current youth safety policies.
  • Apple asked the judge in its trade secrets suit against OpenAI and io to let its own forensic experts examine former employees’ devices and to force OpenAI to hand over hardware development records, which OpenAI called an attempt to “snoop on a competitor.” OpenAI wants a neutral expert to handle the device images instead, but Apple says that would leave it a step behind defense experts who have already been through the material.

In corporate shakeups this week…

  • Automattic CEO Matt Mullenweg named a new board, including science-fiction author Hugh Howey and two co-founders of IRL, the defunct social app whose users turned out to be mostly bots, weeks after the previous board tried to put him on leave. Well, isn’t that just a ragtag group of people who will likely say “yes” to anything Matt wants? Yay!
  • Shopify’s APAC and Japan managing director Shaun Broughton is leaving after eight years, less than a week after EMEA managing director Deann Evans announced her own departure.
  • OpenAI hired Patreon co-founder Sam Yam, along with Patreon’s former heads of product and engineering, to lead a new Creator Product team, with a first look expected at OpenAI’s DevDay on Sept. 29.
  • Amazon is recruiting former employees, including some it laid off, for AWS and AI roles after cutting more than 30,000 jobs over the past year, with one recruiter asking a former employee whether the five-day office mandate had pushed them out.
  • OpenAI contractors hired to grade ChatGPT’s answers are getting fired for using AI to do the work, and reviewers are told to flag telltale signs like repeated words, heavy em dash use, and work finished suspiciously fast. Meanwhile, one contractor told 404 Media that even though they don’t use AI, they deliberately pick the worst responses to sabotage the models. Now that’s funny!

Amazon added Affirm as a payment option on Amazon.co.uk, letting approved UK shoppers pay for orders of £50 or more in three monthly installments at 0% interest or finance them over as long as 48 months at a fixed 22% representative APR. Neither plan charges late fees or penalties for paying early, and purchases above £100 also get Section 75 protection under the Consumer Credit Act. Affirm is rolling out to eligible Amazon shoppers over the coming weeks and covers most categories, though gift cards, groceries, and digital content such as Kindle books are excluded. Affirm has powered Amazon’s installment plans in the US since 2021, and the UK launch follows its Costco deal in the country earlier this month.


Google was fined €403M (about $462M) by Ireland’s Data Protection Commission, which ruled that the way it processed location data between May 2018 and February 2020 was not lawful, fair or transparent enough under GDPR. The regulator said people using Web & App Activity, Location History and Location Accuracy may not have realized their whereabouts could feed targeted advertising and guesses about their interests, and that Google held on to the data longer than it needed to. Google has six months to fix the practices, though it says the ruling covers policies it has already changed, pointing to controls it added from 2019. The move marks the DPC’s fourth-largest fine, behind the €1.2B it hit Meta with in 2023. Google may appeal parts of the ruling.


🏆 This week’s most ridiculous story… Meta has been secretly using human contractors in call centers to make phone calls for Muse users when the AI agent couldn’t handle the task, according to internal posts seen by Reuters. The company quietly turned on these “human agent calls” a couple of weeks ago for half its staff, after businesses kept hanging up on Muse once they realized an AI was calling. A Superintelligence Labs vice president said internal tests showed humans could complete 95% to 98% of calls, but she also conceded it had been “a miss” to begin testing without the right disclosures, adding that Meta had rolled the test back. Employees warned that sensitive details could leak to contractors, and one even found that a contractor made a racist reference on his call. Another employee wrote in an internal post, “It’s baffling to me why we think this feature is worth the risk. We are one bug away from unnecessary information being leaked to human callers.” It’s baffling to me too, my friend! However, I’ve stopped being shocked at every unscrupulous thing Meta does, because otherwise I’d be walking around with a permanent surprised Pikachu face my whole life. Meta said it will launch the feature only once it’s ready and properly disclosed.


Plus 15 seed rounds, IPOs, and acquisitions of interest including Numeral raising $100M in a Series C and Baselayer raising $35M in a Series A.


I hope you found this recap helpful. See you next week!

PAUL

Editor of Shopifreaks E-Commerce Newsletter

PS: If I missed any big news this week, please share in the comments.