My thorough opinion about the bottom for ethereum and reasons why.
I will keep it short and precise as possible.
Things to consider:
Technical Analysis Known upcoming upgrades to ethereum and their effect on price Known upcoming upgrades to bitcoin and their effect on eth price
Known upcoming ethereum related events and their effect on price Known upcoming bitcoin related events and their effect on eth price
Upcoming crypto related events and their relevance to eth price
Unknown upcoming upgrades to btc or eth which may or may not occur and possible effects on eth price and the probability of them occuring (may be some rough guesswork for probability here)
Unknown upcoming events which may or may not occur and possible effects on eth price (may be some rough guesswork for probability here)
When i say eth price im not going to analyze it each case only how it effects the bottom.
As we know ethereum has just upgrade so congraluations. The effect this should have on price is definitely positive, stable (sideways), or only slightly negative. It will definitely not be majorly negative in itself although price may fluctuate at any time this is highly unlikely to be the cause of a large drop ---- Therefore is a mostly positive/stabilizing factor preventing ethereum from hitting a new low specifically because of this.
+1 Positive +2 Stable:
Total: 1 Positive, 2 Stable, 0 Negative.
As we know they are major upgrades coming which will have the same effect albeit perhaps more strongly but perhaps not depending on LN adoption so the score is the same.
+1 Positive +2 Stable
Total: 2 Positive, 4 Stable, 0 Negative
Upcoming LN adoption really is the big hurdle as well as schnorr signatures and security improvements if needed etc...
This is a positive for bitcoin and also a positive for the crypto market therefore a positive for ethereum as ethereum will scale with sharding + more ways as LN adoption grows too and eth will go up with btc given it remains competetive in its capabilities.
This however is a while out and therefore does not have negative effects on current bear market but also does not bring positive effects therefore it is more a stabilizer.
+1 Stable
Total 2 Positive, 5 Stable, 0 Negative
In terms of btc or eth events there is no knowledge of timing but i think ETF won't be approved anytime soon but if it does it may be a negative for ETH as people flock to bitcoin and ethereum wants its own ETF. Given the timing considerations this is not a strong negative for current bear market for this iteration of the bear market.
+1.5 Negative
Total 2 Positive, 5 Stable, 1.5 Negative
Another event is eth added to more exchanges which it probably doesn't have many or any that it is not already on so this isn't counted here.
in terms of crypto related events.
Another event is an international/country specific crackdown on crypto which is unlikely to happen but the effect the media has is significant on price but is partly but not totally outweight by other perceptions.
+2 Negative
Total 2 Positive, 5 Stable, 3.5 Negative
Also unbanning or allowing of crypto in places where it is restricted may be a possibility although it would probably require some advanced security upgrades to solve the custody problem and also crack down on the small few percent using crypto for purposes against their countries laws. This is a real possiblity at the moment i cannot explain why completely but i can confirm such upgrades are and should be technically possible without harming the general philosophy of the community.
+1 Positive
Total 3 Positive, 5 Stable, 3.5 Negative
In terms of unknown upgrades this was referred to in the previous section.
In terms of technical analysis it can't really tell us what the bottom is but for BTC the last major drop was around 84% or so and this current bottom for btc is around that level too so we can say the bottom for btc is kind of close and is at least 85% likely ethereum bottom is close too.
This is a positive for eth price
+1 Positive
Total 3 Positive, 5 Stable, 3.5 Negative
When cancelling out it equates to:
0 Positive, 5 Stable, 0.5 Negative
which indicates to me that the price is most likely to go sideways and not hit a new low however there is still the 0.5 negative to consider therefore it is actually slightly more likely we will hit a new low but only by a small and not massive margin.
I would like to believe that the max low has already occured but to be specific if i had to choose i do not think it has yet.
Looking at T.A levels of support i would have to choose $45-$50 as the most likely support level given only a total negative of 0.5 and the t.a saying we are most likely still in a bear market. The macro trend of the T.A and the event analysis total tells me btc may double bottom at around 3200 while ethereum may go a little lower. It is also a possibility that bitcoin go below 3k but less likely in my opinion.
There was also the event of more wealthy individuals being advices by theri financial advisors to invest in eth or btc as an unnoficial recoomendation which is why i do not think we will go below 3k as insititutional related investors may make their own private decisions too now given 10 years of btc records etc..
So i would say given the stability factors the most likely bottom for eth is probably around $55.
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