The goal of this post is to share the challenging but honest approach to understanding Amp’s legitimate significance as a moonshot asset.
First, a little immediate background setting. Friends, we will be getting our Bitcoin ETF next week, on Monday. Specifically the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, a ‘44 Act bitcoin futures fund, among others.
Volatility will be off the charts and short term direction of moves will be anyone’s guess. Btc could pump in mere hours to the coveted $100k, and blow past it, or sell off on the news back to $50k or even $40k. In any event, the key takeaway is regulatory adoption has finally arrived, triggering massive institutional inflows, the likes of which no crypto veteran or novice has ever seen before, and which will only accelerate over the next few months.
This push begins not coincidentally after a gradual but consistent adoption drive culminating today with the United States’ categorical dominance in crypto, with Miami, Florida launching essentially the first municipality-backed crypto, MiamiCoin, and Texas moving increasingly towards bonafide legal status as the first crypto-run state, with conservative-leaning elected officials virtually moonlighting as bitcoin influencers. As if that’s not interesting enough, New York of all places has been crowned bitcoin mining capital of America, boasting 20% of the hashrate, 6% more than Texas. But politics and regulation, you might skeptically ask. Well, according to CNBC, “New York was weighing legislation this year to ban bitcoin mining for three years so it could run an environmental assessment to gauge its greenhouse gas emissions ... [but] ... lawmakers have since largely walked it back.” Ok, woah — those are not just any lawmakers, but New York lawmakers. Like I said, regulatory adoption has arrived. Moving on, consider the past few months’ news regarding China all but fully backing out of crypto, essentially banning it outright to the point where China-founded Binance has terminated all yuan trading on its platform as of last week, and red hot FTX has relocated to the Bahamas pretty much overnight. Not to mention the oft-misunderstood bombshell — and this part is extremely important — that back in April, Gary Gensler, someone who has taught blockchain and crypto at MIT, became the newest chair of the SEC. I repeat, the current chair of the SEC, who at one point was in charge of Goldman Sachs’ currency trading based out of Tokyo, is actually still a Professor at MIT, where he taught highly acclaimed courses in financial technology and cryptocurrency. Do we know anyone else with that specific connection to MIT? What about to the New York fintech space? Since Chair Gensler also happens to be a member of the New York Fed FinTech Advisory Group. New York, financial technology — where else do we often see these words grouped in the same sentence? Can all of this be a coincidence? Maybe. In which case Flexa/Amp has become somehow the “luckiest” crypto of the moment, and yet is simultaneously relatively undetected. How? Why? Well first, back to wrapping up the broader picture. All this has somehow conveniently allowed the United States to all of a sudden become the center of the crypto world, something even the most diehard advocates couldn’t have realistically expected so soon. (Major props to China for the clutch assist.) Consider, finally, the first real American crypto ETF, albeit futures based, approved by the SEC (by Gary Flexa, I mean Gary Gensler!), giving institutions the regulatory green light to confidently and comprehensively step into the arena without hesitation. Without hesitation. Expect in the next few months all this fundamental bullishness to propel btc to new highs over $200k. Some reputable sources are even targeting $400k. My personal target is a humble $250k (which I publicly announced over a month ago).
But what could this mean for Amp? Keep in mind the whole narrative that has crystallized in the past year towards the end of this current cycle. The word that has been increasingly used and speculated on is “regulation.” That is what is at the center of this ETF approval — an approval that is only the beginning of regulatory normalization of an up until now unregulated/alternative asset class.
Again, regulation, beginning with the approval of a bitcoin futures ETF, will drive normalization and adoption of the broader cryptosphere among massive institutions. All from yesterday alone ... Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman, “I don’t think crypto is a fad ... I don’t think it’s going to go away.” Santander’s CEO Ana Botin, “I think the next big thing, which is already here, actually, is crypto... we’ve been quite slow in adopting that, because of compliance and ... regulatory ... risk appetite; but we’re now getting into it.” (Heck even Russian President Vladimir Putin made an unexpected comment supporting crypto, explicitly approving it as a “means of payment.” What does this mean? What is happening? (I told you Q4 was going to get wild.) This: Goodbye $$ moonbois $$. Hello $$$$$$$$ INSTITUTIONAL WEALTH $$$$$$$$. Think Square, MicroStrategy, and Tesla ... times 40. Because while the three — with about $1 trillion combined in marketcap — may have been the earliest to bring crypto onto their balance sheets, not many others have followed suit, unwilling to stomach the risks stemming from lack of official regulation, optics and all. That is, until now. Imagine in the not too distant future where all companies in the SP 500 hold some bitcoin. All companies. Not merely 3. The total marketcap of the SP 500 is $40 trillion. You figure out the implications of such adoption when you have some free time. But for now understand (while simultaneously googling the marketcap of the only comparable you can think of though it consistently fails to be a worthy one — Gold — and realizing it’s over $10 trillion alone) it all begins with the SEC led by Gary Flexa — I mean Gary Gensler! — normalizing bitcoin.
Now in that near future where the gates finally lift and the real bulls to the tune of trillions come stomping in, where do you think they will invest next? 100% Ethereum. As Ethereum compared to all other crypto has already been adopted institutionally in ways not fully publicized yet (Eth-based NFTs have already disrupted and begun to transform a trillion dollar + “industry.”) But what about a meme coin like Shib? Or a smart contract blockchain/Eth-competitor like Solana? Or a cult like project like Cardano? Or a utopian complexity like Stellar? Do you really think Walmart’s family office WIT will invest over a billion dollars in something so frivolous or derivative or polarizing or unrealistically idealistic? This is where I must remind you once more that up until now, the crypto market has been moved and shaked by individual whales, unrestricted and undisciplined speculators, gamers and gamblers with more than enough cash to spare but not enough good ol’ fashioned substance and/or compliance-inspired principles. Over 1 million percent gains for degenerates pumping a meme backed by an unrealistic use case gilded promise? Questionable aforementioned moonshots fit the bill perfectly for such rogue players on meth. But what about for self conscious billionaire family offices and institutional grade funds of quality who have been waiting on the sidelines specifically for the regulatory green light and prize dependability above all else. Will Apple, with its hundreds of billions in cash reserves, really need to and, by extension, want to dabble with memecoins? Of course not.
So where will the trillions of dollars worth of bluechip capital flow when diversifying into crypto becomes not merely standard but necessary for any serious, successful 21st century company? How about the most compliant, fully licensed, comprehensively regulated crypto that, by design — with a total supply of 100 billion — is meant to appease said bluechip institution. It’s almost as if Amp was designed literally with such an institution in mind. How convenient. What a coincidence. Yes, after bitcoin and Eth, Amp will be the winning if not exclusive choice for many — many — companies and their highly scrutinized balance sheets (not Shib, not Sol, not Ada, not XRP, not XLM). I mean, you can’t make this stuff up, because Amp also happens to serve the very purpose that critically relates to/resonates with the essence of such companies ... locally/federally/SEC compliant, asset agnostic, modern, seamless, instant, fraud proof ... payment efficiency. In the crypto world, it doesn’t get more dependable than that.
This is the big picture approach and end game regarding Amp. Why it was designed with a relatively large total supply. Why volume and popularity have, up until now, been lagging compared to other less serious highly speculative cryptos [in the pre-regulatory era]. Why compliance has always stubbornly taken priority over publicity and the spotlight (crickets ... Binance Intl). Why Flexa has been exclusively focused on merchants/institutions, not the crypto influencer social media sphere.
Because what we’ve invested in will not be the “people’s choice” when the price finally truly goes parabolic (you think 1000% was a lot?), surpassing $1 easily. Amp will be the institution’s choice, as many other crypto assets will be stomped out or replaced and/or redesigned by regulatory pressure. Amp is, essentially, the world’s first most compliant crypto asset in existence (compare XRP’s hot mess of a lawsuit from the SEC that is nearly a year old now despite Ripple awkwardly being founded a decade ago and Amp’s complete casualness in its unpublicized but public filings with the SEC since 2018, in which the token was recognized as a security during employee allocation activity at Flexa from the very beginning), and it is for this reason it seems most poised to win while all others will play catch up belatedly adopting what was Flexa’s original strategy from the get go. This is why it is often said Amp has already won. Why Flexa friend/Amp advocate John Kim has repeatedly waxed poetic on Flexa/Amp strategically choosing to ask for permission first, while all others have instead opted to ask for forgiveness after the fact. As an investor, which principle will you choose to support with your money? Compliance or crime? A spotless record or a marked one? (A concrete merchant-pragmatic use case, or some convoluted, hazy “remittance” shtick?) Amp and by extension we the investors are the student who has prepared — studying, sleeping, keeping healthy — all year before the test, while all others partied and chased immediate but temporary gratification. On the day of the test, the test, Amp will walk in, ace it, and be awarded 1st place, while all others will either fail miserably, or fail to show up altogether. The unregulated moonboi era is ending and the era of institutions via regulatory adoption is beginning. The difference is tens of trillions, no longer tens of billions. And the [rhetorical] question is who will be set to win?
Now, let’s finish with a simple but important thought experiment analogy, highlighting the issue of the opportunity cost of hodling. Assume, somehow, against all odds, you happened to find yourself granted the most luxurious, pristine cabin on a space shuttle, a cabin that would ordinarily be completely out of your realm of possibility in terms of cost, access, etc., that will be your ticket out of a crumbling, apocalyptic planet and towards a new eden of wealth, riches, peace, and prosperity. You are sitting — no, lounging — in your large, comfortable seat, waiting for lift off, as the world around you is crumbling. Now there is no official departure time, only a general window that indicates departure will be happening soon. And all of a sudden, outside of your shuttle, you hear and see a frenzy of people ransacking a department store for its valuables as security has just given up and left and consequently all goods are now up for grabs. Many with no knowledge of the impending doom of the world but also many with simply no ability to escape take what they can in the melee, accepting their fate in Armageddon and resorting to every man/woman for him/herself. Shockingly, you even witness some with premium cabins of their own on the same shuttle departing momentarily get tempted by the frenzy and decide to leave their seat to venture out to try their luck in seizing what they can get. The thing is there is no guarantee for their rewards, nor is there any guarantee for there safe access back to the shuttle. Furthermore, based on where the shuttle is going, any riches they may temporarily come upon in the current world will likely prove useless. The pertinent question, therefore, is: will you leave your seat to go out and try your luck in grabbing a temporarily valuable trinket of dwindling relevance? Or will you simply remain in your priceless premium cabin, not willing to risk missing the departure to a newer, better world of incomparable wealth and prosperity? Incomparable wealth and prosperity that you, by virtue of being one of the earliest arrivals, will be able to enjoy and secure for yourself before many others. The truth is, small minded people with no wise perspective of time and value will potentially make the choice to try their luck for something immediate but arguably of questionable value. That is the consequence and problem of a lack of experience and perspective. The inability to see what’s truly valuable — the fuel for gamblers and a side effect of desperation. Those with experience, the wisdom, on the other hand, will know right away the pointlessness of the question of staying or gambling — because the only choice is to stay ... to hodl; because the value of quality and security are never to be underestimated or ignored — as they are the key ingredients for building and therefore become the chief hallmarks of a successful modern civilization.
For this reason as well as all of the other reasons expressed above, we must hodl, and we will wait.
The rewards for doing so will be beyond your current imagination.
