1.0 THE DCI30 CRYPTO INDEX LEVEL TODAY: circa 2:53pm pdt today
This post is continually updated (usually), so hit 'screen refresh' and look below item #1.9 (when it appears) for updates, (or not). ;)
DCI30 Index Notes:
The DCI30 Crypto Index was begun 04/07/2022, to serve traders who seek an accurate, reliable, and transparent index of the CryptoMarket, details here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/tyoa3m/ddt_crypto_index_creation_introducing_the_dci30/
Yesterday dropped to -57.4%, so we are creeping back towards the SharkLine to give a long set up into tomorrow's open.
Markets suddenly had a macro direction-down. As warned-that was then, here we have the RIA Rally Squeeze expected. You can thank Japan's Skynet Surprise issued last Friday (QE that pulled the USD down)-FOR NOW.
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The Sheep Bleater's Refrain:
The CPI (insert next cause here) has come and once again, not done anything that was not essentially known beforehand. The big brains churn and burn with their word salad analysis penned to impress (everyone has to eat), but the simple K.I.S.S. facts are this:
(1) there is a lot of money that needs to go to work
(2) that $$$ is being eaten alive by inflation's chomp chomp (so it is in extreme tension, and not the FOMO type, but the organic fiscal "have to" variety\):*
*Psssst: this is strong, strong like GRAVITY strong.
(3) it is only a matter of time before the band is struck back up (and up). Law of the Lambo Loving Lemmings! The Market "will" adjust to 'the new black', and THAT cash "will" be deployed. WHEN, not "if" is the operative question. This market has been laughing in the face of risk-and that is duly noted here in this view.
*(4) The TIP ETF Chart is the best forward compass for what (RIA v RINA) is coming down the line . . . keep in mind there is a two week-ish delay from that 'cause' to its 'effect'.....*and at present, that 2 weeks has us up from here. ;)
(5) Some new rules are getting written here, as "this time IS different". :)
(6) Meanwhile, enjoy the volatility/yoyo action, things are moving at last! The goose by the BOJ issued last Friday, won't work forever, but it may work well enough for now-and so far absolutely is (USD to 109 zone at speed, etc). This is NOT a healthy market-this is a running wounded market.
And About that Money thing:
Dry powder
" There is a lot of dry powder on the VC/PE side and we have multiple data points of creation through periods of distress as bootstrapping, innovation and human ingenuity come to fore when resources become more scarce. To put numbers to those theories….126 unicorns were formed in GFC and PE and VC combined have have $2.5 trillion of dry powder currently which is 8.5x the amount they had in 2000 (GS) "
See also: https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/xrf18i/market_outlook_where_we_go_from_here_09292022/
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1.1 THE ONE CHART THAT RULES THEM ALL: TIPS ETF
2:53pm pdt: When in doubt, zoom out ;)
1HR TIDE VIEW: That dashed red line is DDT Day Trend Support developed over A YEAR, and now RSI is no longer oversold-but headed into overbought-last time we were here was August. Market effects are generally delayed in response to this by a couple of weeks, (read the chart!). Breach has consolidated. Bottom in thanks to BOJ Friday? (Doubt it!) Watch the dashed 1hr intermediate static, that goes, and we have high probability trend reversal....which sends us back to the Day OHR (dashed green). THAT is the relief rally range for November here. THAT is bitcoin running back into 25k range.
Watch this one closely as it's THE HUGE 800lb canary in everybody's room.....and due to the time prognostication attribute (2 week correlation), we are getting the heads up for mid November here.
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/wNsPO8kT/
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1.2 THREE COIN MERGE/DURGE/PURGE MACRO VIEW:
2:54am pdt
5m Chart: 3 Coins To Represent This Lemmings Come Hither Market: BTC (patriarch-white), ETH (matriarch-teal), ATOM (the kids-blue). Kids are satelliting about Parents-contrarian at times. :)
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1.3 THE CRYPTO MARKET TREND SPOTTER: "BTC Watch"
====> HEADS UP ON THIS ONE GANG-READ THE 1-9 EVENTS & 11/01/2022 = upcoming point of singularity
2:55pm pdt
Downtrend confirmed at 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 hits (#5 and 8 = slight breach each), and #9 is the clear breach. The green hammer candle was followed by spinning tops-all were harbingers of short term trend reversal....which we now have. It may drop back under the line, but the cat is outta this bag here.
BTC and ETH and now ATOM tides have moved from negative to neutral to positive===>that is trend turning signaling. IF we break the OHRs to the line of Demarcation and maintain that for a couple weeks, THEN we are in a new RIA environ. (I don't think it will happen, but we shall see soon enough.)
"Point of Singularity" (Support vs OHR trend collision) occurs 11/01/2022 unless trend is broken beforehand, and so far that is just now teasing here.....with an UP call. Still needs confirmation-and that is on tap here this week.
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Will we or won't we? (Did we or don't we?) Well, you know my consistently annoying thinking on that haha. Above is the Macro Temperature Chart, for those watching this tired rerun out of The ETH Merge cum ETH Durge Purge, and now back to MoMoMergeMode to set up for a big (sub 1.1k) Purge?
Perhaps this week or so (surprise surprise-at the Point of Singularity, quel coincidence-NOT) . . .we'll see. But check the chart, no vague TA voodoo there, just K.I.S.S. obvious stuff with an out-the-windshield call on it. And when you sit back and think about it-it all just fits together doesn't it? Divine Coincidence? Um, I don't think so* . . . (and no, I am not a conspiracy theorist).
*Intelligent Design.
Weak + consolidating just above Support as the TIP crashes = Price Down Potential High inside two weeks....unless SKYNET decides to prop it all up (again).....which is happening here now.
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We have fallen back well under OHR1 hard. Ouch! Nothing magical here, just pure persistent weakness. Sideways consolidation in a descending weak market that has heavy RINA pressures (primarily CPI/FED/BOJ Mambo here), this "usually" results in a subsequent leg down. Indeed, net down is all that can be seen thus far.....until now.
As I have bleated for a while:
The difference here is the way we approached negative trending OHR. Unlike last time, which appears SKYNET Violence Based (an "SPD": std pump/dump infection), this one is a gradual grind up. It "appears" a bit more considered/thoughtful/organic. That is NOT an endorsement haha-just an observation. The conventional chartists out there (and yes, I call them Skynet's unwitting "CCrs"), will call this a "bear flag formation". I am not said conventional chartist. I do DDT, and in DDT, we don't do the bear flag thang. It is a crap pattern as this "bear flag" is also how markets grind up in recovery. (Higher Highs + Higher Lows = How Recovering Markets Oft Run) .......And there is nothing bear market about a bull market. ;)
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8wgeh9Uj/
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If you are an active or learning trader, I strongly recommend you read recent posts and their updates, as day to day I may not repeat important post items, only slather on new data as I find it. :)
There is a free treasure trove of information here, stuff you will find nowhere else, (original content):
https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/qrr32h/welcome_all_yee_broad_sword_scalpers/
Good Luck & Viva La Share-IF YOU SEE IT IN THE DATA, PLEASE CALL IT OUT, (no narratives por favor)!
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1.9 UPDATES FOLLOW, (trades I make are in comments section-posted when time permits):.
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2.0 BITCOIN TRADE DIRTY DITCH DATA DUMP:
HEADS UP!: BTC Tide Turned Back to Positive
1m DDT Scalp Chart circa 2:56pm pdt, (refresh via TV chart link below).
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JGCVVxmD/
Note 1: I have added scalp & swing trade areas, and will make this one chart a regular posting feature. To see all areas and trade channels clearly, use the chart link and zoom out to other time views. You know when I am keeping the chart current (yes, I do sleep and have a life haha), IF the TIDE Arrow is on the right side of the chart-as shown here.
I trade right off this chart 24/7, and if you review the DDT lessons posted here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/qrr32h/welcome_all_yee_broad_sword_scalpers/
.....you can too. :)
There are no magical black boxes in DDT TA, just tried and true TA that works in most any market.
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7.0 BROADER MARKETS:
Futures Opened Up Per The Call: *check!*
