Biggest Reason Behind Bitcoin’s Downfall

The craze over cryptocurrency is as it is hyped but the recent fall of bitcoin has really hit hard to crypto maniacs. Bitcoin prices have fallen to the lowest level in months after the US Federal Reserve’s hint on increasing the interest rates. Fed Reserve’s December meeting notes suggest that the central bank could increase the interest rates sooner than anticipated.

Kazakhstan became last year the world's second-largest centre for bitcoin mining after the United States, according to the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, after major hub China clamped down on crypto mining activity. The political events in Kazakhstan have raised concerns over bitcoin mining. The Central Asian country has been hit hard with political unrest over rising fuel prices. Citizens are protesting and have seized the buildings in the capital city.

Now people who don’t know but Kazakhstan is said to process nearly a fifth of all Bitcoin mining due to its cheap electricity. Due to the internet shutdown earlier this week, the processing power of the Bitcoin network has been hit. The bitcoin price slumped from $47,000 per coin to $42,000 per coin in just 4 days. Other crypto-currencies have also seen price falls. Ethereum saw its value drop by more than 4% in 24 hours, from approximately $3,800 to under $3,200.

Supply and Demand: What Bitcoin metrics are saying about the selloff | Crypto Market Update 1.7

Report Overview

• Bitcoin Metrics
• Market Update
• Major News
• NEWBIES lesson of the day: Bitcoin Math (lesson 4)

​

https://preview.redd.it/gjcwli26dda81.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e2e1d80f157ee680b2a7242d96be881c96f1b0b

Intro 

I planned to cover the Electric Capital Developer Report today, but the market doldrums are calling everyone’s attention. So, instead, the report will cover some TA and On-Chain Metrics to explore what pressures are affecting the crypto market. So, I’ll leave the Developer report for Monday.

​

Insight: Supply and Demand for Bitcoin

Another down day.

 The market continues its struggles amidst the U.S. Jobless Rate report that saw unemployment fall to 4% and wages jump in what adds pressure on the FED to raise interest rates in March. More workers plus higher wages are not a good combination when fighting inflation. As a result, bonds are beginning to sell off too. In addition, on January 12th, the YoY Inflation Rate report will be released and will likely support the same theses.

Bitcoin is testing the 42k support (yellow) on the daily chart below. My reports have been calling for a test of this price since early December. A fast break of this vital support will have me worried about a continuing bull run. On the other hand, several retests of the support will keep me optimistic, especially if some altcoins continue to run during that period.

​

https://preview.redd.it/q05vaye8dda81.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0d91ccffb991f261cda1fac12a8b642bc6732ab

Long liquidations of leveraged positions remain high (green bars), further adding downward price pressure on Bitcoin. The long liquidations are positive as an increase of leveraged short positions could aid in a possible short squeeze scenario. The market needs to capitulate (increase fear) amongst retail traders before the big players make a run.

​

https://preview.redd.it/l1comqyadda81.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=9843073878ff428f77d304c71ece032ca564c03e

The reserve on exchanges continues to fall despite the selloffs. This metric would increase if market participants moved Bitcoin into exchanges to sell, but that is not the case. In addition, the illiquid supply has been growing, signaling that intelligent money is collecting BTC on dips. These metrics are laying out the fact that supply is decreasing in the supply and demand structure.

​

https://preview.redd.it/0efwg7scdda81.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=c53e1a70d2dde73db2bec4baaa41f0acd347647f

Decreasing supply and liquidating long leveraged positions are strong positives if demand decides to re-enter Bitcoin spot markets. Retail participation is at strong lows; “Bitcoin” searches on Google Trends hit a yearly low yesterday to help support this evidence. The Jan 12th inflation report will have a substantial impact, but ultimately, Bitcoin has a lot of positives going for it.

​

​

​

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Major Crypto News

• Terra (LUNA) has several proposals to expand the use of UST on the Ethereum, Solana, and Polygon networks. Olympus DAO, Rari Fuse, Invictus DAO, Convex, Tokamak are some of the projects involved. Very bullish news for Terra, as an estimated $139M of LUNA would be burned to mint the UST.
• GameStop (GME) stock jumped +26% after the company has announced the creation of an NFT division and is nearing the completion of two partnerships with NFT firms.

​

​

https://preview.redd.it/06ji4fugdda81.png?width=474&format=png&auto=webp&s=d838ba5549a6ba4aa27f42f565aa853823ef8ed6

• Vitalik Buterin, the co-creator of Ethereum, has proposed a new fee structure that could help lower gas fees on the network. The fee structure is dubbed “multidimensional” pricing.
• Bitcoin miner stocks halve, supporting the thesis of being a leverage play on Bitcoin.
• The Serum community foundation has raised $75 million in token sales to grow the ecosystem. Serum is a decentralized exchange (DEX) on the Solana Network. So the news could be a lot of buying pressure on the Serum (SRM) token.
• SEC data shows that Coinbase (COIN) insiders sold over $40 million in stock during the December selloff.

​

Market Update

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) sits at 40%. Traders have yet to rush into Bitcoin despite the strong selloffs in the past two weeks.

​

Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D) is having a solid collapse to 19.30%, a 13% drop from 22.30% highs a month ago. There is an ongoing preference to keep funds in other projects. ATOM and DOT are two notables that are gaining dominance on ETH today.

​

Harmony One (ONE), the smart contract platform, is holding up well compared to its peer chains. I would attribute this to the popularity of Defi Kingdom (JEWEL), a defi based game built on Harmony with over $1 Billion TVL. ONE is up 32% for the week.

​

Cosmos (ATOM) and the DEX built upon the Cosmos SDK Osmosis (OSMO) are having a solid week despite the market selloff. ATOM is a strong interoperability play with its cross-chain ecosystem. ATOM is up 36% for the week, and OSMO is up 44%.

​

TerraUSD (UST) market cap continues in a strong uptrend and sits at $10.4 billion. LUNA must be burned to mint UST. Chart below.

​

https://preview.redd.it/hd1i8fivdda81.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=9888cd53a19e07f2ae9508099516fa799679e0a1

Projects showing resilience (24h)

• QNT $180.80 +3.9%
• DASH $133.12 +6.7%
• LINK $26.88 +3.6%
• YFI $35,945 -0.05%
• SCRT $6.64 +6.8%
• ION $12,217 +45%

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index: 10 Extreme Fear
“Bitcoin” Google Trends: 29 (low for the year)
Bitcoin Options Max Pain: 44K

How to use The Fear and Greed Index for investing

​

NEWBIES lesson of the day

Bitcoin Math | Lesson 4 

​

I’m sure by this point you keep hearing Bitcoin is an excellent inflation hedge or there is a limited supply of Bitcoin, but you’re not exactly sure how many. This lesson will explore current metrics so you have data to share and aid you in understanding Bitcoin scarcity. Remember from past lessons; the Bitcoin supply structure can never be altered.

​

There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. The last Satoshi (SAT) is scheduled to be mined in 2140.

There is currently 18.92 million Bitcoin in existence. That is 90.1% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist. That leaves 2.07 million to be mined in the next 118 years.

There is an estimated 3–4 million bitcoin that are lost forever. The mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto is the founder of Bitcoin, and his wallet contains 900k Bitcoins (There will be a future lesson on Nakamoto).

​

Bitcoin is inflationary when it comes to supply issuance (mined Bitcoin). The current inflation rate is at 1.78%. In an event named the Bitcoin halving every four years, supply is reduced by 50%. The next halving will occur in 2024.

In comparison, gold has a yearly inflation average of 2%. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST REPORT, the USD currently sits at 6.8%, but estimates are as high as 15% for the year.

​

There are 2.35 million Bitcoin left on exchanges.

There are 39.8 million Bitcoin wallets, and only 938k are active. Meaning the other wallets rarely move bitcoin. Either it is stored or lost.

There are an estimated 7.9 billion people globally, and an estimated .4% of them own Bitcoin.

​

Bitcoin Supply Schedule

The last statistic is just for fun and to help you visualize what would happen if 2% of the world decided to buy bitcoin. I’ll let your imagination run wild with those numbers.

​

​

Stay tuned on Monday when I analyze the yearly Electric Capital Report. The report covers developer actively across crypto. Developers are typically an early indicator of successful projects. The information will help you position yourself for the year; you don’t want to miss the coverage.

Keep stacking those sats while others are fearful!

Thanks for reading fam! 

Gabi

Follow me on Medium or subscribe to this FREE daily newsletter on Substack

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NYDIG Research Weekly: January 7, 2022

IN TODAY'S ISSUE: We take a look at what has been driving both crypto and traditional markets Turmoil in Kazakhstan highlights the importance of political stability for miners Survey reveals the top concern of institutional investors for digital assets

Crypto Markets (And Traditional Markets) Fall on a Hawkish Fed On Wednesday at 2 PM, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its December FOMC meeting. In the minutes, there appeared an alarming consensus that the Fed should begin raising rates and shrinking the balance sheet as soon as possible once its taper is completed as anticipated in March 2022. This degree of hawkishness had already been communicated by the Fed in several forms, and so it is perhaps surprising that investors had a strong reaction to the news. Fed dot plots from that December meeting, released immediately after the meeting, showed an anticipated three rate hikes in 2022. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech soon after the December meeting that balance sheet reduction could start in 2022. But if the information was not entirely new, investors were perhaps caught off guard by the forcefulness and level of consensus shown in the minutes. What's for certain is that investors quickly reacted, sending many traditional financial markets, as well as crypto, down.

There did not appear to be any fundamental news in the crypto space and liquidations, while elevated, were not notable. We have written extensively in recent months about the increasing relationship between crypto and traditional markets, and so we will be keeping a close eye on the actions of the Federal Reserve going forward. The next FOMC meeting is January 25th - 26th and the next CPI reading is January 12th.

Hash Rates Fall Amid Kazakhstan Internet Shutdown In recent days, Kazakhstan has faced significant protests, sparked by the government’s decision to lift price caps on fuel amid energy shortages, leading to significant price increases. Attempting to tame the protests, the government shut down the internet. In the wake of China’s ban on mining, a number of Chinese miners crossed the border into Kazakhstan. Prior to the protests, the nation controlled nearly 20% of the world’s hash rate. Since bitcoin mining requires internet access to download blocks and transactions and propagate new blocks, this effectively shut down mining in the country. With the internet still down, this provides a boon to miners outside of the country who are now more likely to win blocks and collect rewards.

Despite bitcoin being a supranational currency, operations that support the network still occur within national boundaries. Miners need energy, internet, and government approval to operate, and the continued provision of these interrelated needs can be suddenly stopped in nations that lack stability. When miners left China, we believe that this improved the stability of the long-term Bitcoin network (as well as its environmental profile). If miners were to leave Kazakhstan to freer and steadier nations following the latest conflagration, it would likely have a similar impact. The episode also reinforced how vital it is that network hash rate is globally distributed rather than concentrated and exposed to the whims of a few governments.

Custody is Still the Top Institutional Investor Concern This week, a survey from crypto asset manager Nickel Digital Asset Management highlighted the chief concern of institutional investors in the space, asset custody. The survey, reported in the media, said that 79% of respondents representing $108.4B in assets under management cited secure storage of digital assets as the key consideration whether to invest in the space. Our conversations with investors new to the industry echo similar concerns, which stem from the core nature of Bitcoin itself. Bitcoin is technology that removes trust from a central entity and places it in the hands of the network participants: miners, node operators, and those that own bitcoin. Bitcoin has been called a “digital bearer instrument”, which to us means that whoever possesses the private key, the password that allows one to move bitcoins, has the right to the asset itself. Given this technological innovation, it should come as no surprise that institutional investors are concerned with the safeguarding of their private keys. While counterparty risks exist in the traditional markets, something that was on full display during the Global Financial Crisis, losing your securities or having them stolen is not a threat historically borne by traditional market investors. We understand the concern and therefore encourage those entering the space to perform adequate due diligence on service providers. It is just as important as the investment analysis itself.

Market Update market data.jpg Bitcoin fell -8.4%, with much of the losses occurring on the back of the hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. Equities also fell on the week, with the S&P 500 down -1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite down -4.2%. Gold fell -0.9%. Bonds decreased on the week, with Investment Grade Corporate Bonds falling -1.8%, High Yield Corporate Bonds depreciating -1.1%, and Long-Term U.S. Treasuries decreasing -3.1%. Real yields increased and inflation expectations modestly decreased.

Important News This Week Investing: Bitcoin Can Reach $100K, Goldman Sachs Says – CoinDesk Bitcoin Falls as Fed Minutes Appear Hawkish – Federal Open Market Committee Crypto Security Is Biggest Concern for Institutional Investors – Bloomberg Regulation and Taxation: Mining Pool Hashrates Fall amid Kazakhstan Internet Shutdown – The Block Congress Preparing Hearing on Mining's Environmental Impact – The Block London Travel Network Cracks Down on Crypto Ads – The Block Former CFTC Chair Proposes Means for Unifying Crypto Regulation – The Block Estonia Regulator Says No Plans to Ban Crypto – CoinDesk NYDFS Hires Deputy Superintendent For Crypto – LinkedIn Companies: CSI and NYDIG to Provide Financial Institutions Access to Bitcoin – NYDIG, CSI BTCS to Offer a Dividend Payable in Bitcoin – BTCS

Upcoming Events Jan 12th – U.S. CPI data release Jan 25-26th – FOMC meeting Jan 28th – Bitcoin futures and options expiry on CME

Serious Question: is an "offline" lightning network possible? Kazakhstan Related

Probably a dumb question as i think it may be theoretically possible but i am not sure if it's something anybody could do right now and what its limits are, but i'd like the main point to be to open a serious discussion about this:

-Is it possible to exchange bitcoin in a wide area network or even a local area network (or WLAN, whatever) in the event of a government isolating the country from the internet?

-Can People in Kazakhstan exchange bitcoins somehow? if not, is there something we can do about it?

-how resilient is the network in a "disaster" scenario? (internet gone, WANs shut down, only LANs working), would it be possible to exchange bitcoins one device to another over wifi until they can reconnect to the main network? what are the limits?

Sorry if this has been asked before,

Thanks

Liquidity is key folks !

Now that bitcoin has corrected 40% from all time high, buying some bitcoin, ethereum etc is the best way forward. This is the accumulation phase that will truly help you be that person who got that 100x return on their portfolio before the next bull run starts.

But keep in mind, liquidity is key !! By liquidity I do not mean the liquidity in crypto exchanges which will be sufficient for most retail investors but I mean liquidity that you as a person need in your life. There will be events in your life that will require you to liquidate your assets in order to be able to make do. Could be a wedding or a new house or a hospitalization etc.

Ideally, you would want to invest only as much in crypto which you feel you can afford to let it be for at least a decade into the future. For me personally, it is 5% of my income. I'm comfortable locking 5% of my income every month in crypto for at least a decade.

I would be willing to let my crypto investments grow for at least 2 decades before I redeem them. That's how long of a horizon I have on my mind. Why such a long horizon? I personally believe that it would take another decade for crypto to have applications that actually hit mainstream and then yet another decade for these mainstream applications to peak in terms of adoption. You wanna be the guy who has that L1 token which powers the metaverse where there's a million transactions everyday. That's how you'll know you're at the very peak.

In the ensuing two decades, you'll have various obligations. If you plan on saving 20% of your income every month, invest at least 10% in absolutely safe assets like investment grade bonds and another 5-7% in stocks. Restrict crypto to the least possible allocation because it will take the maximum possible time to achieve its full potential.

Even if your crypto portfolio grows at a CAGR of 30% from now, in 2 decades you'll be up 190x. On the other hand if you invest a lot in crypto and cash out in lets say 2 years, you'll at best be up 5x assuming the bull market comes back and you chose the wise coins. What matters is how long you're invested and not how much you're invested.

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1️⃣WHAT IS ASSCOIN❓

• We are not going to tell HODL, x1000 ot Lambos. This is the real shitcoin, a parody of bitcoin and all BSC shitcoins in general. We have started with a very low marketcap and without private/public presales that dump the coin, anyone who entered the first days after reddit post can be a whale.

• Dedicated and hard working, with engaged moderators and community members.

2️⃣ WHY BUY ASSCOIN❓

• We don't throw empty promises around like 'you will go x100'. We will reach that goal by dedication and hard work! Only then we will say: here you go, enjoy the big gains.

• We are honest about the fact that Asscoin is a meme coin. However, that doesn't stop us from going big!

• All ideas, opinions and contributions are welcome in our group.

• We don't lock ourselves with a generic roadmap that every meme coin is using nowadays. We have specific goals, but improvise on the go too.

3️⃣ WHEN MARKETING❓

• Marketing is an ongoing process. We continuously search and engage in the most efficient promotion for Asscoin.

• Coming marketing (under review): shout-outs by TikTok influencers, reviews by YouTubers, viral events with price pools, shilling contests and many more.

• We will keep pushing to get on cg and cmc.

4️⃣ TOKENOMICS❓

• Liquidity is locked on DeepLocker for 10 years.

• Max supply of 1000T tokens.

• 990T circulating supply.

• 10T burned

• 49T team tokens.

• Max 5T per transaction to prevent sharp pumps and dumps.

• 5% tax (4% liquidity pool and 1% rewards for Asscoin holders).

• 0xdfb637b35e1ea86fcf2880f1859b2bbaa821e5a8

(Check in Telegram)

Still have some questions about Asscoin? Check our links below. Excited? Then join us, share ideas and lets go to URANUS 🌕 together!

5️⃣ LINKS❓

🌐 Website

https://asscoin.finance/

💬 Telegram group

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Liquidity locked 10 years

0xdfb637b35e1ea86fcf2880f1859b2bbaa821e5a8

🥞 Buy on PancakeSwap (Always check and verify the contract address!)

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Telegram asscoinbsc

We want make Asscoin the biggest meme on the crypto world.

We need 1000-1500 holders to be listed in cmc and this will explode! 😍

Updated roadmap 2022

New nft game coming soon + development of a new general shitcoin forum board

Nft gallery with +70 nfts! This week we will start big shilling raids and big marketing for our nft's and onlyass service, we have still los mc, devs working hard every day

Launched new service where hot girls will can make custom pic/videos for promotions.

https://asscoin.finance/onlyass.php

Video burger king

http://files.fm/u/kaxu5am3k

Soon more WTF videos!!! The coin of LOLS/WTF

1️⃣WHAT IS ASSCOIN❓

• We are not going to tell HODL, x1000 ot Lambos. This is the real shitcoin, a parody of bitcoin and all BSC shitcoins in general. We have started with a very low marketcap and without private/public presales that dump the coin, anyone who entered the first days after reddit post can be a whale.

• Dedicated and hard working, with engaged moderators and community members.

2️⃣ WHY BUY ASSCOIN❓

• We don't throw empty promises around like 'you will go x100'. We will reach that goal by dedication and hard work! Only then we will say: here you go, enjoy the big gains.

• We are honest about the fact that Asscoin is a meme coin. However, that doesn't stop us from going big!

• All ideas, opinions and contributions are welcome in our group.

• We don't lock ourselves with a generic roadmap that every meme coin is using nowadays. We have specific goals, but improvise on the go too.

3️⃣ WHEN MARKETING❓

• Marketing is an ongoing process. We continuously search and engage in the most efficient promotion for Asscoin.

• Coming marketing (under review): shout-outs by TikTok influencers, reviews by YouTubers, viral events with price pools, shilling contests and many more.

• We will keep pushing to get on cg and cmc.

4️⃣ TOKENOMICS❓

• Liquidity is locked on DeepLocker for 10 years.

• Max supply of 1000T tokens.

• 990T circulating supply.

• 10T burned

• 49T team tokens.

• Max 5T per transaction to prevent sharp pumps and dumps.

• 5% tax (4% liquidity pool and 1% rewards for Asscoin holders).

• 0xdfb637b35e1ea86fcf2880f1859b2bbaa821e5a8

(Check in Telegram)

Still have some questions about Asscoin? Check our links below. Excited? Then join us, share ideas and lets go to URANUS 🌕 together!

5️⃣ LINKS❓

🌐 Website

https://asscoin.finance/

💬 Telegram group

https://t.me/asscoinbsc

Liquidity locked 10 years

0xdfb637b35e1ea86fcf2880f1859b2bbaa821e5a8

🥞 Buy on PancakeSwap (Always check and verify the contract address!)

https://pancakeswap.finance/swap?outputCurrency=0xdfb637b35e1ea86fcf2880f1859b2bbaa821e5a8

🍑ASSCOIN🍑 | Low mc 21k 🚀New Service OnlyAss 🚀I Sexy Girl Promote Us 🚀 l Nft Marketplace, Soon Nft Game ASSteroid

Join our Telegram, a sexy girl promoted us!

Contract 0xdfb637b35e1ea86fcf2880f1859b2bbaa821e5a8

Telegram asscoinbsc

We want make Asscoin the biggest meme on the crypto world.

We need 1000-1500 holders to be listed in cmc and this will explode! 😍

Updated roadmap 2022

New nft game coming soon + development of a new general shitcoin forum board

Nft gallery with +70 nfts! This week we will start big shilling raids and big marketing for our nft's and onlyass service, we have still los mc, devs working hard every day

Launched new service where hot girls will can make custom pic/videos for promotions.

https://asscoin.finance/onlyass.php

Video burger king

http://files.fm/u/kaxu5am3k

Soon more WTF videos!!! The coin of LOLS/WTF

1️⃣WHAT IS ASSCOIN❓

• We are not going to tell HODL, x1000 ot Lambos. This is the real shitcoin, a parody of bitcoin and all BSC shitcoins in general. We have started with a very low marketcap and without private/public presales that dump the coin, anyone who entered the first days after reddit post can be a whale.

• Dedicated and hard working, with engaged moderators and community members.

2️⃣ WHY BUY ASSCOIN❓

• We don't throw empty promises around like 'you will go x100'. We will reach that goal by dedication and hard work! Only then we will say: here you go, enjoy the big gains.

• We are honest about the fact that Asscoin is a meme coin. However, that doesn't stop us from going big!

• All ideas, opinions and contributions are welcome in our group.

• We don't lock ourselves with a generic roadmap that every meme coin is using nowadays. We have specific goals, but improvise on the go too.

3️⃣ WHEN MARKETING❓

• Marketing is an ongoing process. We continuously search and engage in the most efficient promotion for Asscoin.

• Coming marketing (under review): shout-outs by TikTok influencers, reviews by YouTubers, viral events with price pools, shilling contests and many more.

• We will keep pushing to get on cg and cmc.

4️⃣ TOKENOMICS❓

• Liquidity is locked on DeepLocker for 10 years.

• Max supply of 1000T tokens.

• 990T circulating supply.

• 10T burned

• 49T team tokens.

• Max 5T per transaction to prevent sharp pumps and dumps.

• 5% tax (4% liquidity pool and 1% rewards for Asscoin holders).

• 0xdfb637b35e1ea86fcf2880f1859b2bbaa821e5a8

(Check in Telegram)

Still have some questions about Asscoin? Check our links below. Excited? Then join us, share ideas and lets go to URANUS 🌕 together!

5️⃣ LINKS❓

🌐 Website

https://asscoin.finance/

💬 Telegram group

https://t.me/asscoinbsc

Liquidity locked 10 years

0xdfb637b35e1ea86fcf2880f1859b2bbaa821e5a8

🥞 Buy on PancakeSwap (Always check and verify the contract address!)

https://pancakeswap.finance/swap?outputCurrency=0xdfb637b35e1ea86fcf2880f1859b2bbaa821e5a8

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The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast - Green Candle Investments

FRIENDS AND ENEMIES

We sit down with our American friends from Green Candle Investments for a light-hearted hour of commentary on news and events around Bitcoin, macro and foreign policy. A big thanks to Dan and Brandon for coming on to replace a guest on short notice - please, check out their newsletter and of course our weekly BTC space tonight at 4:30 EST!

Have a great weekend!