Saturday, April 10, 2021

[ CryptoCurrency ] I'm been in crypto since 2013. Maybe 700+ alt coins and many trades. Now a Defi-Crypto Farmer. Here are some of my tips and advice for new-comers.

Topic originally posted in CryptoCurrency by Cryptodragonnz [link]

As the title says I'm into crypto pretty deep. I was in crypto briefly in 2013, but only really hit the ground running in 2017 and never looked back. In 2017 I made all the usual mistakes, got into the wrong coins, entered some dodgy exchanges and sold the wrong coins (like selling Enjin on its first day after investing in the ICO). In 2018 things got worse, with shitcoins driving the BTC value of my holdings down by half.

Now I'm sitting really pretty and feel like I have "clicked" to the point where I am generally making money in crypto and quite a few people ask me for advice on what to do, strategies etc. Here are some of my tips, observations and ideas.

1) Don't trust anyone. Assume everybody you are talking to is a friendly thief who wants your money. That includes people shilling particular coins, or anyone asking for your crypto to invest, to random people that message you.

2) Every position you enter should be a fixed percentage of your portfolio. I prefer 1% for a typical trade. Risky uniswap gems might be 0.5%, very strong longer term positions say 2-5%.

3) Have your portfolio value in BTC (or ETH if you prefer that). Your goal is to increase your BTC value. Each trade should be from BTC, and then exit back out of BTC. Log all transactions in blockfolio etc under the BTC pair, so you can see how much BTC value you are gaining. Don't worry as much about USD gains, as in a bull market its easy to make USD value gains. BTC is the end-game here so you want to accumulate BTC, especially if BTC dominance is falling.

4) Have a portion of your portfolio allocated to farming or staking. If you have a coin sitting somewhere for ages, ask if there is some way for you to make money from it. For example, I have a large stack of BTC and ETH, so rather than have it sitting doing nothing, I wrapped the BTC and entered a Sushi Farm. Months later the rewards from that farm are worth something like 25% of the amount I initially invested. Every so often, harvest the rewards and either re-farm (compounding) or shift to your long term hold.

5) Have a dedicated stack of BTC or ETH that is your "HODL" portfolio that you never touch. Preferably in seperate legal entity (like a trust) than what you trade with. This will help for taxes. Every so often, move some profits into that long term stack. I don't do anything with that stack at all, it is just my safe holdings.

6) Spend as much time learning about tax as you do trading. Tax is something you kind of need to understand upfront - you can get way more rekt from bad tax approaches than you make gains with good trading. And keep your records safe - download all trade histories at the end of every quarter.

7) Use telegram (or discord). Find really helpful smart and useful people and stick to them. Find helpful trading groups. Eventually they will be a vital source of information or just ways to bounce ideas off.

8) Read the crypto news as much as you can. Its amazing how often something pops up (e.g. grayscale announcing new trusts with other coins) and there is still a decent amount of time to buy. And always have some BTC on an exchange ready to buy on such an opportunity. Again, telegram is great for this as you can quickly see tweets or news-links being shared.

9) Have a preset % of gain or losses whereby you will sell if it reaches that. For example, for most coins, if a coin ever goes up more than 30% vs BTC in a day I always sell. 95% of the time that works out as better than holding. In the rare event I double my position I always sell the principal immediately (I did this twice this year - with Ethernity and Blind Boxes).

10) Always have an idea as to what the current "climate" is in terms of what is moving and in favour. Crypto markets often move with certain sectors at a time. For example, if you look at the Coin Gecko categories list, you can immediately spot what is "hot" right now. Last month it was NFTs, so I was heavy in that space, but now that sector is cooling. The binance smart chain and exchange coins are doing very well right now - if that is the case what else might move? Well other low gas blockchains could be an idea - especially if they have defi - so Avax, Raydium etc are all moving too. Soon it might well be BTC's time to gain as the expense of alts. You should be rotating in and out of positions to try and go with the ebb and flow of the market.

11) For newcomers, start with basic stuff like accumulating bitcoin, learning to use a wallet, security etc. Don't just dive in and ape into defi coins, wsb style. It may suck that it feels like you are missing all the gains from the "hot" new coins, but it will equally hurt if you are just burning through your capital.

12) Look out for free crypto opportunities. They key here is sorting out the gems from the scams. This isn't just staking etc but also things like reddit moons and airdrops. A lot of people are even "airdrop farming" whereby you have wallets that carry out certain activities deliberately to try and qualify for future airdrops. Coin market cap earn and coinbase earn are two more. Even something like the binance "dust" feature to turn dust into bnb is a way of generating some more bnb (even if its tiny).

13) For farming, make sure you are using the right apps like zapper or apy vision to track all your positions, your yield and any impermanent loss. That will also help with tax records down the track, should you need it. Watch out for farming on the ETH network as your gas fees will chew up any gains if you have small positions.

14) Track all your numbers, your gains, your investments and portfolio change religiously, preferably in an excel document. That way you'll know how you are performing and if something is going wrong. Again, I wish I had done this more in 2018.

15) Have an "emergency reserve". For me, this is actually my stock positions, many which are crypto related, but you could have gold or cash (I especially like the idea of something like stable coins lent on FTX at a decent interest rate). If we get some kind of crypto turbo dump which is 40%, you can then have that as money on the side-lines ready to buy.

16) Constantly educate yourself. For me, I still need 3-4 hours a day to research and learn about crypto. I find crypto podcasts and even youtube vital sources of information, provided you are listening to the right people. Mix up your education with news, technical strategies, trading updates, altcoin news and even just the general philosophy behind sound money and financial sovereignty.

17) If you win or lose on a trade, delete that coin from blockfolio immediately. Why? Because you have exited that position, and seeing it jump up again in price is just going to torment you. You've made the decision to sell, don't even up revenge trading where you come back and try and get your losses back on the same trade.

18) Never margin trade UNLESS it is only because you want to minimise your funds at risk on an exchange. Even then I'd avoid it. Unfortunately many exchanges make this very hard to use - and there are confusing terms and default options which can rekt you (for example, positions that will drain your other funds instead of liquidiating the trade if falls too much). In fact, I avoid almost all USD pairings and only trade BTC pairing, unless very special circumstances are in play (such as ripple being delisted from coinbase).

Anyway these are the ones that come to mind, hopefully that is helpful! No doubt I'll edit this post and add a few more.


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The CGA pre-sale is now on official website!

CGA that has successfully completed its first private sales is carrying out CGA Coin free sales with limit quantity with promoting exchange market ahead. 

https://preview.redd.it/w27j3s0udhs61.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=4df5d902cf120d2dd0718a02107628e504eb1138

* CGA Official homepage 
https://www.cgacoin.net

Crypto Gaming Alliance (Here and after known as ‘CGA’) who is showing various values of the eco-system between gamer, developer, seller, coin holder with an already completed platform begins their 1st free sale on March 25th. 
CGA has Hard Fork the DAG algorithm Nano which has completed its safety and technology verification in the market and developed CGA Coin, and they have applied the advantage of feeless and its instant transaction speed into the game platform and store payment.  
The sales amount from the free sale will be used for overall marketing expenses of the CGA Platform and system matters expense such as game developer(company)’a Alliance participation support etc.  They are aiming for early release of various new games from CGA GAMES. 

https://preview.redd.it/sga0gnbvdhs61.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c1c174b92d9ef69830c0e826374ef4b40d1818d

Free sales is carried out in a Coin swap form and it may be purchased through Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether(ERC-20), Ripple. The sales price taking Tether(USDT) as standard is 0.2 USDT, and limited amount of 20,000,000 coin is sold starting March 25th. Once the limited amount is sold, the event will end early. Detailed information regarding free sales can be check from the CGA and CGA Coin’s Official homepage. 
* CGA Game platform can be check from CGA GAMES Official homepage 
https://www.cgagames.org/


I'm been in crypto since 2013. Maybe 700+ alt coins and many trades. Now a Defi-Crypto Farmer. Here are some of my tips and advice for new-comers.

As the title says I'm into crypto pretty deep. I was in crypto briefly in 2013, but only really hit the ground running in 2017 and never looked back. In 2017 I made all the usual mistakes, got into the wrong coins, entered some dodgy exchanges and sold the wrong coins (like selling Enjin on its first day after investing in the ICO). In 2018 things got worse, with shitcoins driving the BTC value of my holdings down by half.

Now I'm sitting really pretty and feel like I have "clicked" to the point where I am generally making money in crypto and quite a few people ask me for advice on what to do, strategies etc. Here are some of my tips, observations and ideas.

1) Don't trust anyone. Assume everybody you are talking to is a friendly thief who wants your money. That includes people shilling particular coins, or anyone asking for your crypto to invest, to random people that message you.

2) Every position you enter should be a fixed percentage of your portfolio. I prefer 1% for a typical trade. Risky uniswap gems might be 0.5%, very strong longer term positions say 2-5%.

3) Have your portfolio value in BTC (or ETH if you prefer that). Your goal is to increase your BTC value. Each trade should be from BTC, and then exit back out of BTC. Log all transactions in blockfolio etc under the BTC pair, so you can see how much BTC value you are gaining. Don't worry as much about USD gains, as in a bull market its easy to make USD value gains. BTC is the end-game here so you want to accumulate BTC, especially if BTC dominance is falling.

4) Have a portion of your portfolio allocated to farming or staking. If you have a coin sitting somewhere for ages, ask if there is some way for you to make money from it. For example, I have a large stack of BTC and ETH, so rather than have it sitting doing nothing, I wrapped the BTC and entered a Sushi Farm. Months later the rewards from that farm are worth something like 25% of the amount I initially invested. Every so often, harvest the rewards and either re-farm (compounding) or shift to your long term hold.

5) Have a dedicated stack of BTC or ETH that is your "HODL" portfolio that you never touch. Preferably in seperate legal entity (like a trust) than what you trade with. This will help for taxes. Every so often, move some profits into that long term stack. I don't do anything with that stack at all, it is just my safe holdings.

6) Spend as much time learning about tax as you do trading. Tax is something you kind of need to understand upfront - you can get way more rekt from bad tax approaches than you make gains with good trading. And keep your records safe - download all trade histories at the end of every quarter.

7) Use telegram (or discord). Find really helpful smart and useful people and stick to them. Find helpful trading groups. Eventually they will be a vital source of information or just ways to bounce ideas off.

8) Read the crypto news as much as you can. Its amazing how often something pops up (e.g. grayscale announcing new trusts with other coins) and there is still a decent amount of time to buy. And always have some BTC on an exchange ready to buy on such an opportunity. Again, telegram is great for this as you can quickly see tweets or news-links being shared.

9) Have a preset % of gain or losses whereby you will sell if it reaches that. For example, for most coins, if a coin ever goes up more than 30% vs BTC in a day I always sell. 95% of the time that works out as better than holding. In the rare event I double my position I always sell the principal immediately (I did this twice this year - with Ethernity and Blind Boxes).

10) Always have an idea as to what the current "climate" is in terms of what is moving and in favour. Crypto markets often move with certain sectors at a time. For example, if you look at the Coin Gecko categories list, you can immediately spot what is "hot" right now. Last month it was NFTs, so I was heavy in that space, but now that sector is cooling. The binance smart chain and exchange coins are doing very well right now - if that is the case what else might move? Well other low gas blockchains could be an idea - especially if they have defi - so Avax, Raydium etc are all moving too. Soon it might well be BTC's time to gain as the expense of alts. You should be rotating in and out of positions to try and go with the ebb and flow of the market.

11) For newcomers, start with basic stuff like accumulating bitcoin, learning to use a wallet, security etc. Don't just dive in and ape into defi coins, wsb style. It may suck that it feels like you are missing all the gains from the "hot" new coins, but it will equally hurt if you are just burning through your capital.

12) Look out for free crypto opportunities. They key here is sorting out the gems from the scams. This isn't just staking etc but also things like reddit moons and airdrops. A lot of people are even "airdrop farming" whereby you have wallets that carry out certain activities deliberately to try and qualify for future airdrops. Coin market cap earn and coinbase earn are two more. Even something like the binance "dust" feature to turn dust into bnb is a way of generating some more bnb (even if its tiny).

13) For farming, make sure you are using the right apps like zapper or apy vision to track all your positions, your yield and any impermanent loss. That will also help with tax records down the track, should you need it. Watch out for farming on the ETH network as your gas fees will chew up any gains if you have small positions.

14) Track all your numbers, your gains, your investments and portfolio change religiously, preferably in an excel document. That way you'll know how you are performing and if something is going wrong. Again, I wish I had done this more in 2018.

15) Have an "emergency reserve". For me, this is actually my stock positions, many which are crypto related, but you could have gold or cash (I especially like the idea of something like stable coins lent on FTX at a decent interest rate). If we get some kind of crypto turbo dump which is 40%, you can then have that as money on the side-lines ready to buy.

16) Constantly educate yourself. For me, I still need 3-4 hours a day to research and learn about crypto. I find crypto podcasts and even youtube vital sources of information, provided you are listening to the right people. Mix up your education with news, technical strategies, trading updates, altcoin news and even just the general philosophy behind sound money and financial sovereignty.

17) If you win or lose on a trade, delete that coin from blockfolio immediately. Why? Because you have exited that position, and seeing it jump up again in price is just going to torment you. You've made the decision to sell, don't even up revenge trading where you come back and try and get your losses back on the same trade.

18) Never margin trade UNLESS it is only because you want to minimise your funds at risk on an exchange. Even then I'd avoid it. Unfortunately many exchanges make this very hard to use - and there are confusing terms and default options which can rekt you (for example, positions that will drain your other funds instead of liquidiating the trade if falls too much). In fact, I avoid almost all USD pairings and only trade BTC pairing, unless very special circumstances are in play (such as ripple being delisted from coinbase).

Anyway these are the ones that come to mind, hopefully that is helpful! No doubt I'll edit this post and add a few more.


The “White Swan” event no one talks about for Bitcoin

One of the main FUD arguments to keep people from buying Bitcoin is that governments will ban it. Most people already know this when buying so the risk here is to the upside if governments adopt Bitcoin as a form of tax payment on cryptocurrency gains( or tax payments in general). Then either use the payments to pay off debt or use it as collateral to issue new fiat debt.

It’s a first movers advantage for all governments around the world and a very real possibility. Any kind of government buying or accepting of Bitcoin is a huge upside risk for shorts. It would make the GME short squeeze look like child’s play.


The “White Swan” event no one talks about for Bitcoin (x-post from /r/Bitcoin)

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/mohz9f/the_white_swan_event_no_one_talks_about_for/

This country is finished.

I'm so naïve and gullible lmao. I can't believe I actually thought that the Amazon union vote was "the most important part of labor history since blah blah blah". I was excited that it could be rallying cry for working people everywhere. A "new" labor movement based on the real problems presented by service industry/warehouse work.

Then the whole thing fell flat on its fucking face. Absolutely pathetic. It wasn't even close. The union lost by 2-1 ratio. It would be hilarious if it wasn't so sad. I wasn't personally involved in any of it, but I'm an industrial electrician who really sympathizes with what those people face. I wanted so badly for them to unionize. I feel so fucking stupid. This really ripped the rose-tinted glasses off and revealed what a pathetic joke the modern labor movement is.

More and more jobs are being taken by automation, climate change is pretty much irreversible now, and the gap between the lower class and the upper is opening more every day. They got us, we lost. Pack it in boys, show's over. Just scrape and grovel for what you can until you either die or are killed by the events for the next few decades. (maybe buy some BITCOIN while you're at it!!!) Fucking LMAO.

Sorry if this post is disjointed, I'm just ranting.


[ CryptoCurrency ] Here's what I learned after building and testing algorithmic crypto trading bots for the past year

Topic originally posted in CryptoCurrency by CyberPunkMetalHead [link]

For the past year, I have been building and testing crypto trading bots, pulling reports and analysing their performance. During my testing, I have trialled different strategies, with various degrees of success and I think that can provide a brief overview of which strategies tends to work and which ones don’t (in my experience anyway).

Machine Learning Bots

These are bots that typically ingest vast amounts of historical data on coin, in order to calculate a predicted price. I used an LSTM model in order to try and predict the price of the top 10 coins. After multiple tweaks and optimisation, I decided that a prediction 4 hours in the future is the most accurate one. Even so, the machine learning bot only got 50% of the trades right, meaning that it performed as well deciding how to trade based on a coin toss.

The issue with machine learning algorithms in finance is that, if they are only ingesting financial information, they remain ultimately blind to all the external factors which contribute to sharp fluctuations in price. Yes, machine learning can detect patterns in the price change with great accuracy if you feed it a big enough dataset, but it cannot account for anything outside these numbers: news, regulations, holidays, behavioural patterns etc..

In essence, machine learning bot that only works on financial data will always be at the mercy of whatever else is happening outside the historical dataset. A more robust algorithm would take into account news, major crypto events and behavioural patterns, as well as the historical data.

Technical Indicator Bots

This category is looking at financial indicators and technical analysis in order to make a short or long term decision on a cryptocurrency. Some of the technical indicators that I tried are: MFI, RSI and Awesome Oscillator. My conclusion is that technical indicator bots have a higher rate of success than a simple machine learning bot, but they are not without faults.

Taking the example of the RSI indicator - or the Relative Strength Index, this is supposed to show you much much momentum is there on a market from a scale of 0 to 100. A value over 70 is considered a strong bullish movement while a value under 30 is typically a bearish sign. The use I used this indicator is once the value goes over 70 and then back under again, let the bot place a sell position. If the value goes under 30 and back over, buy instead.

As you might expect this isn't exact and many times the bot registered false positives. Again, this proves that unidimensional data isn't enough for an informed decision.

Trend bots

In this categories we have bots that determine the current movement of the market and make an entry in the direction of the market. Let's say that Doge is currently going up and has gained more that 5% in the last 10 minutes. The bot would compare the current price with the one from 10 minutes ago and determine that it's a strong bullish sign and the trend will continue. Of course, this strategy is not bulletproof either and requires careful calibration.

For example you would need a strong exit strategy. You want to ride the trend for as long as the trend persists, so you need a trailing stop loss, and not a fixed take profit. During my testing the bot was also prone to false positives, but it seems that overall it outperformed the technical and machine learning bots and actually turned a good profit on XLM!

Social bots

Single Input

In this category we have bots that listen to what a given Twitter handle has to say about a coin and then place an appropriate position based on the sentiment of that tweet. The most recent example that I have is a twitter bot that buys Bitcoin when Elon Musk tweets about bitcoin.

Unfortunately there's no easy way to back test this, but by manually looking that the historical data and tweet correlation between Elon, Bitcoin and Doge, I am actually more confident that social bots have a higher success rate than either of the two types of bots described above. The main reason behind this is that such bots are able to look at the crypto market the same way we're looking at it. I'm sure many of you have speculated on a coin when some massive news happened.

The bot needs to understand what makes people act, in order to understand the human impulse and behaviour. The previous bots just analyse what we did in hindsight, but not what we're going to do based on a social input. In the medium-term I believe we will become increasingly aware of what influent people have to say about cryptocurrencies, and that's why I am continuing the development of this idea into a usable application.

Aggregators

Another example in this category are news aggregators, the hungry ones. In this category we have bots that consume vast amounts of news by scraping the web for every article related to a certain coin. The bots then analyses the sentiment of the news and places a position according to how the media is portraying that coin. This is a new project that I started, as I became increasingly aware of the importance of news, hype and sentiment and this affects cryptocurrencies.

The key for such a bot to work properly is accurate analysis of the news headline sentiment, something that I'm still trying to optimise. I have just begun integrating this system into a bot and will probably be a while before I will have any pertinent insights, but from a subjective level I am quite stoked about how this strategy would work.

In my opinion, the crypto bots of the future will take into account social media sentiment, news volume and other more socially-related metrics to make decisions on the crypto market. WallStreet boys have been using this strategy for a long time, but the freedom of the internet and the blockchain means that we can all start doing the same!

If you are using or have used crypto bots, I am curious to know what your experience was like!


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Zenon Network of Momentum

Why is Satoshi's true identity such a mystery? What does anonymity add to a project?

What Satoshi must have envisioned was a system of transferable value that was self governed by it's community. With an immutable and incorruptible ledger system that by design, utilises objective truth and transparency to all, to propose a new fairer and more efficient financial foundation for our economy.

It becomes clearer by every passing day that Bitcoin will be the number one asset of the future. A hedge against the inevitable crash of our bloated, corrupt and deeply flawed current financial system.

The fact an anonymous developer or developers created Bitcoin is of great significance as it symbolically strips away the ego and corruptible aspect that big business has finance has always been plagued by.

The problem with Bitcoin is the tech. Groundbreaking as it was in 2009 Its now outdated. Slow. Expensive. Broken.

Fitting then, that an anonymous team are creating a network that solves the speed and affordability issues posed by Bitcoin, completing the assets vision in principle and in practice.

Zenon- Network of Momentum.

https://zenon.network/

https://hackernoon.com/how-not-to-fra...

https://medium.com/@zenon.network/znn...