Sunday, January 17, 2021

FIREDAO - the fastest way to retire

FIREDAO is a community-run organization that develops blockchain products to fast-track its members to financial freedom.

https://preview.redd.it/x0330vcmf0c61.png?width=1888&format=png&auto=webp&s=e33069486b63939393618534a7e1a29aa00eddb8

We are a community of software engineers, corporate finance professionals, investment specialists and early Bitcoin adopters who got together to build simple and efficient products that enable reaching F.I.R.E. (stands for Financial Independence; Retire Earlier) significantly faster.

F.I.R.E. is a lifestyle movement that unites people committed to achieve financial freedom by making aggressive savings early in their professional career and living off the investments after early retirement instead of depending on a typical 9 to 5 job.

When the F.I.R.E. movement became popular in early 1990s the global economy did not have the challenges that it faces today, so investing all savings in bonds and stock index funds was a safe and rational choice.

However, today we believe the global economy is on the verge of another "Great Depression": the stock markets are all time-high while productivity, employment and the GDP decline due to the coronavirus pandemic. Unlike stock market crashes in 2000s and 2007-08, which took the markets 4 years to recover, the current crisis brings long-term negative consequences: unemployed people lose their qualifications, people suffered from COVID-19 have long-term productivity disorders, massive bankruptcies among SMEs makes access to capital for entrepreneurs more difficult in the future. So, in case the current crises gets worse, it would take the stoсk market a very long time to recover. For comparison after the Great Depression in 1929-39 the markets took 25 years to recover to their pre-crisis levels. So, if you plan to retire early and keep most of your savings in stocks or corporate bonds you must diversify your portfolio.

https://preview.redd.it/y6az9b96f0c61.png?width=1050&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2e8efdac8407de99504351a4c52276f6b92f88e

F.I.R.E. protocol was created as a response to current economic crisis and challenges. F.I.R.E. protocol is a computer algorithm that manages digital money and enables to generate a much higher ROI than stock market index.

Yield aggregator: High return, low volatility

Our first product - the yield aggregator - enables savings in stable cryptocurrencies (pegged to $1) which have near zero volatility. This means that the value of deposits is not affected by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The yield aggregator generates much higher annual returns than stock market indexes (20% vs. 8%) by eliminating all intermediaries and automatically deploying capital to audited smart-contracts, which make money from trading, lending and liquidity mining events.

Co-investment protocol: new opportunities

Typically only a very small number of well-know investors have an opportunity to make early-stage investments together with top VCs, while most people buy significantly overpriced stocks after IPOs.

We want to change that by allowing FIREDAO members to invest in revolutionary high-tech companies selected for investments by our partner VCs.

F.I.R.E. co-investment protocol enables co-investments with top crypto VCs. Despite these investments are risky, if successful, they can potentially generate very high ROI.

Governance

In contrast to the current financial system, F.I.R.E. protocol allows every community member to participate in protocol's development by making necessary proposals and voting on protocol's changes with the protocol's governance token - FIRE token.

FIRE token will be issued and distributed in a fair way via a "liquidity mining" program: users of the protocol will receive FIRE tokens proportionally to their deposits in the Yield aggregator.

More resources

Telegram: https://t.me/firedao Website: https://firedao.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/FIREDAO_ Medium blog: https://firedao.medium.com/ Github: https://github.com/FIREDAO/firedao-protocol


Bitcoin "40,000 US dollars" suspicious cloud: who is manipulating, who is killing "leeks"

During the previous period of the sharp rise of Bitcoin, many strange phenomena appeared in the encrypted digital currency trading market: first, the phenomenon of false transactions in some encrypted digital currency transactions increased sharply, attracting unknowing new investors to enter the market; second, some trading platforms were down. , Abnormal trading events such as flashbacks, freezes, and undisplayed positions frequently occur, affecting users' normal trading operations such as placing orders, canceling orders, and closing positions. Once they encounter a significant change in the price of Bitcoin, many investors have no choice but to accept the high Leveraged investment has a bitter fruit.

Since January this year, the market has been hyping more and more institutional investors entering the market to increase their holdings of Bitcoin. As everyone knows, after the price of Bitcoin soared by more than US$35,000, many Wall Street investment institutions bought a large number of short positions with execution prices above US$40,000 in the Bitcoin futures market or derivatives. This may be the real driving force behind Bitcoin's sharp fall this week.

The rise and fall of Bitcoin prices are largely affected by changes in investor sentiment and changes in risk appetite. Moreover, investors' risk appetite and sentiment toward Bitcoin can easily jump from one extreme to another. For example, when Bitcoin continued to fall to a low of $3,000 before, many investors believed that Bitcoin was “worthless” under the circumstances of regulatory pressure and lack of application scenarios, and they did not want to buy on dips at all; The coin soared above 42,000 US dollars per coin, and these investors firmly believed that bitcoin had the value of replacing gold, and turned to high prices to catch up. Zhao Cheng believes that this switch of mentality among investors makes Bitcoin an extremely easy asset to be manipulated.


January 17th, 2021 - Top Post of the Day

Top Upvoted

even super villains gotta cook and clean

 

https://i.redd.it/g0uxh99i9xb61.jpg

 

145559 points

/u/jaybailey079 on /r/memes · Context


Top Platinum Awarded

Whistleface (1/16/2021) SATURDAY - ALL HOUSE :)

 

https://www.reddit.com/rpan/r/RedditSessions/kywj7x

 

6 platinum awards

/u/whistleface on /r/RedditSessions · Context


Top Gold Awarded

Changelly stole my assets

 

Two days ago, I swapped eth to btc on myetherwallet.com for a large amount. There was no certain limit or any kyc agreement while performing this transaction on myetherwallet.com. After this contract, I waited for hours and bitcoin did not reach me. I contacted changelly after seeing this. I wanted help with them fixing this problem. They told me to do KYC and on the same day they confirmed the KYC transaction. After this transaction, they started to ask me questions that would not be asked in the crypto money industry. They requested official documents from me that I had received these assets and I sent them all formally. After that, they asked me for proof that the account belongs to me and I sent it correctly. I sent the summaries of my bank accounts and my citizen ID. They enforced rules that did not exist in any exchange within Bitcoin or Ethereum. After completing all the verification processes, they suddenly stopped communicating with me.

When I announced that I would share this event on certain social media platforms, they told me that I should not do this and they would be interested. Over the hours, bitcoin fell and I lost an incredible thousands of dollars. My assets have decreased in value. This is a complete crime. I have never encountered such a thing on any bitcoin-ethereum p2p exchange. What's Changelly's purpose? When I examined other platforms, I saw that there were thousands of complaints. Many people's money is confiscated. There are many reasons as justification, but all of them are scam! Talking to live chat on changelly.com does nothing but distract you! does not help! changelly regret. I will continue to share this topic on many social media because of their behavior. I want my beings to come back. There was nothing criminal and authentication was verified. Bank summaries verified. His questions were answered. the account has been confirmed to be mine. But they still have taken over my crypto assets! do not use changelly. Changelly steals your money.

u/Changelly

 

15 gold awards

/u/SadDiscipline3140 on /r/Changelly · Context


Top Silver Awarded

even super villains gotta cook and clean

 

https://i.redd.it/g0uxh99i9xb61.jpg

 

150 silver awards

/u/jaybailey079 on /r/memes · Context


Top Awarded

This brave boy being a beacon of positivity

 

https://i.redd.it/3230ib7yfjf51.jpg

 

764 awards

/u/wewewahwahoh on /r/nextfuckinglevel · Context

   

Have feedback? Message the moderators! · v21.1.16-2


CMV: Bitcoin is a Ponzi Scheme

Bitcoin has no intrinsic value beyond it's mining cost and it's cash market value is far in excess of it's cost to mine.

It follows a familiar cyclical hype pattern of every few years of being pumped and dumped.

Hype is created by a market event (the latest being an number of trading platforms like PayPal jumping on board), a bunch of people buy in, pushing the traded cash value up, then those who bought in the last cycle sell down and take their cash gainz, at the expense of those who just bought in, until the next cycle - where those who HODL may have the opportunity to recoup their losses.

People make money from trading BTC - and that money is made from those who have bought in late to the scheme on that particular cycle.

"Money is never created, it only changes hands"

The only difference between BTC pump-and-dump an a traditional Ponzi or Pyramid scheme is that Bitcoin is cyclical - whereas a normal Ponzi or Pyramid scheme is "one shot" (i.e. it collapses after the first dump cycle - as confidence in the scheme collapses).

The fact that BTC is a market instrument differentiates it from a one-shot "scheme" and allows it to be an ongoing, repeated cycle.

Unlike a company (like Theranos, WeWork), where the lack of value becomes clear after the dump, BTC never had any real value to begin with - only a digital signature which authenticates the asset.

As long as the hype cycle remains, and people (i.e. HODLers) believe in the cycle, there is no reason this couldn't continue indefinitely ... but it's still a Ponzi scheme.

... then again .... I'm no economist.


Barbell Investing

This is a thread to discuss Taleb's barbell investing idea, introduced in Chapter 13 of "The Black Swan."

I'm going to quote Taleb's description of the strategy here, which I believe is ok because he blatantly and purposefully makes all his books freely available via online pdf.

"If you know that you are vulnerable to prediction errors, and if you accept that most "risk measures" are flawed, because of the Black Swan, then your strategy is to be as hyperconservative
and hyperaggressive as you can be instead of being mildly aggressive or conservative. Instead of putting your money in "medium risk" investments (how do you know it is medium risk? by listening to tenure-seeking "experts"?), you need to put a portion, say 85 to 90 percent, in extremely safe instruments, like Treasury bills—as safe a class of instruments as you can manage to find on this planet. The remaining 10 to 15 percent you put in extremely speculative bets, as leveraged as possible (like options), preferably venture capital-style portfolios. That way you do not depend on errors of risk management; no Black Swan can hurt you at all, beyond your "floor," the nest egg that you have in maximally safe investments."

This is in no way a suggestion that any of us should invest in a strategy like this. This is a thread to discuss specific, practical, hypothetical components that an investor in this type of strategy could use to construct their barbell.

Personally, I'm more interested in publicly traded investments than private equity.

I don't have many ideas to share, but here are a few.

Positive Black Swans

Bitcoin - TBH I just sold all of my bitcoin. But I still think of this as an area with possibly unlimited upside. I also *like* the idea of others piling into the trade using stocks like RIOT and bidding up the price of blockchain-related ETPs way above NAV. The next time we see a slew of "I-told-you-so" Bitcoin articles about all those silly tulip chasers, I'll be levering up through instruments like these rather than buying BTC itself, since I'm not a believer anyway. Are there any ways to get direct leveraged exposure to BTC?

Call Options - I am an options noob recently trying to educate myself. My problem with call options is that when they are most useful (after big market declines), they are also most expensive. If this is a misconception, I would like to clear it up. Can anyone recommend good resources to learn options trading? I'm not sure if I should take a class at my local business school, read some books (which ones?), learn through websites (which ones?), or all of the above.

Hedge Fund Copycat - Just last year I put a small amount into gold mining penny stocks highlighted on a series of YT videos by Crescat Capital. I don't really believe any of their story, but I think the fact that they are telling it increases the probability of these penny stocks doing well. One of them is up over 600% since I bought so that's cool. I haven't used this strategy with anything else. Anyone else have ideas for this strategy?

How else can we get exposure to positive black swans in our barbell strategy?

Negative Black Swans

USD - USD losing its status as world reserve currency would be a tremendous black swan. At first thought, it seems like there are lots of direct leveraged trades to short USD via the FOREX exchange (e.g. just go long EURUSD). But on second thought, if all currencies lose against whatever the new reserve currency will be, then it may not be quite so easy to pick relative winners among the losers. What else can we do to get exposure to this event in a barbell?

Put Options - Again, total noob options trader here. I love the irony of puts in that they are cheapest when they are most useful and valuable. How beautiful is that. I get the math behind simple hedging strategies using SPX puts, but what if you want to seek greater profits in your barbell? How do you identify a real turd to maximize the potential payout of your puts? I know, that's a big question. Any books (or anything else?) that you would recommend on the subject? I know that's like asking the industry of short sellers to reveal their secrets, but hey it doesn't hurt to ask.

What other strategies should we stick on the negative side of our barbell?


Barbell Investing

This is a thread to discuss Taleb’s barbell investing idea, introduced in Chapter 13 of “The Black Swan.”

I’m going to quote Taleb’s description of the strategy here, which I believe is ok because he blatantly and purposefully makes all his books freely available via online pdf.

“If you know that you are vulnerable to prediction errors, and if you accept that most “risk measures” are flawed, because of the Black Swan, then your strategy is to be as hyperconservative
and hyperaggressive as you can be instead of being mildly aggressive or conservative. Instead of putting your money in “medium risk” investments (how do you know it is medium risk? by listening to tenure-seeking “experts”?), you need to put a portion, say 85 to 90 percent, in extremely safe instruments, like Treasury bills—as safe a class of instruments as you can manage to find on this planet. The remaining 10 to 15 percent you put in extremely speculative bets, as leveraged as possible (like options), preferably venture capital-style portfolios. That way you do not depend on errors of risk management; no Black Swan can hurt you at all, beyond your “floor,” the nest egg that you have in maximally safe investments.”

This is in no way a suggestion that any of us should invest in a strategy like this. This is a thread to discuss specific, practical, hypothetical components that an investor in this type of strategy could use to construct their barbell.

Personally, I’m more interested in publicly traded investments than private equity.

I don’t have many ideas to share, but here are a few.

Positive Black Swans

Bitcoin – TBH I just sold all of my bitcoin. But I still think of this as an area with possibly unlimited upside. I also *like* the idea of others piling into the trade using stocks like RIOT and bidding up the price of blockchain-related ETPs way above NAV. The next time we see a slew of “I-told-you-so” Bitcoin articles about all those silly tulip chasers, I’ll be levering up through instruments like these rather than buying BTC itself, since I’m not a believer anyway. Are there any ways to get direct leveraged exposure to BTC?

Call Options – I am an options noob recently trying to educate myself. My problem with call options is that when they are most useful (after big market declines), they are also most expensive. If this is a misconception, I would like to clear it up. Can anyone recommend good resources to learn options trading? I’m not sure if I should take a class at my local business school, read some books (which ones?), learn through websites (which ones?), or all of the above.

Hedge Fund Copycat – Just last year I put a small amount into gold mining penny stocks highlighted on a series of YT videos by Crescat Capital. I don’t really believe any of their story, but I think the fact that they are telling it increases the probability of these penny stocks doing well. One of them is up over 600% since I bought so that’s cool. I haven’t used this strategy with anything else. Anyone else have ideas for this strategy?

How else can we get exposure to positive black swans in our barbell strategy?

Negative Black Swans

USD – USD losing its status as world reserve currency would be a tremendous black swan. At first thought, it seems like there are lots of direct leveraged trades to short USD via the FOREX exchange (e.g. just go long EURUSD). But on second thought, if all currencies lose against whatever the new reserve currency will be, then it may not be quite so easy to pick relative winners among the losers. What else can we do to get exposure to this event in a barbell?

Put Options – Again, total noob options trader here. I love the irony of puts in that they are cheapest when they are most useful and valuable. How beautiful is that. I get the math behind simple hedging strategies using SPX puts, but what if you want to seek greater profits in your barbell? How do you identify a real turd to maximize the potential payout of your puts? I know, that’s a big question. Any books (or anything else?) that you would recommend on the subject? I know that’s like asking the industry of short sellers to reveal their secrets, but hey it doesn’t hurt to ask.

What other strategies should we stick on the negative side of our barbell? And how?


Annual January third Proof of Keys event (x-post from /r/Bitcoin)

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/kzfcdn/annual_january_third_proof_of_keys_event/

Mining and Staking: How to Earn Cryptocurrency in 2021

Original: https://safex.org/mining-and-staking-how-to-earn-cryptocurrency-in-2021/

Introduction

In the fast-expanding global crypto economy, cryptocurrency mining and staking are likely on their way to become even more profitable within the years to come. This article will give a short overview and comparison about mining and staking as two methods to earn cryptocurrencies.  

In order to earn a net profit via cryptocurrency mining, the mining profitability has to be positive. The mining profitability is dependent by the market price and the mining cost of the cryptocurrency. Staking has generally a lower cost per earned unit than mining. Mining as well as staking can be either pursued with self-owned hardware or via a third party service provider. Different factors have to be considered in order to decide whether mining or staking will be a profitable investment short-term and also long-term.

For staking, the initial costs are generally minor compared to mining. Staking can be either done with a self-hosted node at home, with a node set up on a virtual instance by a third party infrastructure provider or by using a smart contract. In contrast to mining, the initial staking balance majorly determines the reward.

https://preview.redd.it/0w0tw2vjvyb61.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=71c8f02a12b4d797fee1e78b7d3d3310d532a482

The price of electricity

The main factor that is defining the mining profitability - especially in the short-term -  is the price of electricity used by a self-owned mining rig. Many countries charge electricity at lower prices to encourage economic growth. Also, the rates for businesses and private persons can significantly differ. Today, most industrial miners do their business in countries that offer electricity at a low price on power purchasing agreements. On the other hand, most retail miners have to calculate retail price fluctuations when planning their investments. Since cryptocurrency mining has developed into a highly competitive business all around the world, the most profitable miners determine the average profitability and can force other less-profitable players out of the business when they can't compete anymore.

The cost of the mining hardware setup

A significant cost factor that has to be included into the mining profitability calculation is the price of the complete mining hardware setup. These prices tend to fluctuate in cycles with periods when buying equipment is relatively affordable and those toward each hype-cycle's peak when equipment may not only be unaffordable but also unavailable. The price of hardware also varies from manufacturer to manufacturer and depends mostly on the amount of computing power it produces on lower energy consumption. The more computing power a machine produces, the more cryptocurrency you will mine. Also, the lower the setup's energy consumption, the lower your monthly costs will be.

To sum it up, you should decide your setup based on the following factors:

  • The efficiency of the machine - The ratio of hash output to electricity input.
  • The longevity of the machine - It is dependent on the production quality.
  • The price of the machine - It will influence the lifetime mining profitability.
  • Additional costs - Costs of further infrastructure like servers and rental space.

When all parameters are known and the desired cryptocurrency to mine has been decided on, it is possible to set up a complete mining profitability calculation.

Cloud mining via a third party

Cloud mining involves purchasing time on someone else’s machine. Companies charge cloud mining based on the hash rate (processing power) of provided hardware. The higher the hash rate of the machine you rent is, the more coins you can expect to mine but you will also pay more. Some companies require you to pay a monthly fee while others require a year-long contract.

Cloud mining comes with its own set of benefits. For example, mining on someone else’s machine means you don’t have to worry about the reliability of your electricity infrastructure and rate or the initial cost of the hardware setup. On the other hand, in case you sign a year-long contract and the price of the cryptocurrency you are mining decreases, you will be stuck in an unprofitable contract for a long time.

Cryptocurrency emission cycles

Some digital currencies go through emission cycles with events such as block reward halvings. Such a halving occurs when the amount of cryptocurrency entering circulation as a block reward within time - also known as emission rate - is reduced by half. When the amount of new supply entering the system suddenly drops, the cryptocurrency’s price will be driven up as long as the demand remains constant. The time after the halving is crucial for miners, since the profitability drops rapidly until a market price increase of the currency makes up for the reduced block reward again. During this time, miners are mining with reduced profitability or even at a loss and may capitulate as a result. In the case of Bitcoin, halvings occur every 210,000 blocks, which is around every four years, until the maximum supply of 21 million Bitcoin has been mined - probably in the year 2140.

Therefore, when deciding on which cryptocurrency will also be profitable to mine in the long-term, it is important to examine and analyze the historical emission rate as well as the future emission rate. Generally, the demand has to outpace the emission rate at any given point in order to drive up the cryptocurrency's price in the long run. Otherwise, the resulting price decrease will make the mining unprofitable if the coins are held too long.  

An example for a cryptocurrency with an equitable mining algorithm - enabling profitable mining with a home CPU - in it's early phase of emission is the privacy-focused PoW currency Safex Cash (SFX). The coin emission follows an S-shaped curve which makes it attractive for new miners to join the ecosystem especially in the first few years. Towards the end of the regular coin emission, the emission rate decelerates again. This pattern is designed to follow the adoption of the currency.

Staking

Ethereum mining has been and probably will be near the top in the digital currency space when it comes to cryptocurrency mining. This is not only because of the block rewards but also the transaction fee revenue for the miners as the use of the protocol is steadily increasing. However, Ethereum’s blockchain has a somewhat different purpose than Bitcoin’s. Ethereum is a smart contract protocol, which means that although mining has supported the network during the phase when it wasn’t widely used for transactions, the network’s future lies in taking on staking nodes as validators to provide sufficient transaction capacity. Since the regular mining will probably be phased out gradually and a substantial amount of coins will be locked in staking, this may drive up the price in the long-term.  

Staking is a mechanism where users deposit some of their coins into a staking address that is owned by a validator node and lock them for a certain period. The node then secures the network by producing blocks relative to the number of coins deposited and the machine calculates the staking reward from the total amount of coins staked in the network for each node. An example for a service provider that lets you stake any amount of Ethereum and temporarily gives out a placeholder token for the staked ETH which can be used for various purposes in return is Lido.

For the majority of PoS blockchains, the annual percentage rate (APR) can be predicted quite well based on parameters set in the code and the number of staking participants. Generally, the staking rewards are paid out in the same currency as the staking deposits which results in an inflation of a staker's cryptocurrency.

The Safex ecosystem does not only give an opportunity to CPU miners, it also introduces a completely new way of staking and earning cryptocurrency. Although being a 100% PoW network, the Safex Token (SFT) allows users to stake and earn cryptocurrency on the Safex blockchain via a staking mechanism which does not contribute to the consensus mechanism of the chain.

Safex - being considered the best Shopify alternative - has embedded the Safex Token (SFT) into its blockchain which serves to allow users to create accounts based on blockchain eCommerce technology and do online shopping with cryptocurrency. However, Safex Token also allows its holders who lock (stake) their tokens to participate in revenue sharing of the Safex platform. It is a utility token released to provide incentives to the community to support the creation of the Safex marketplace. The proportional reward is determined depending on the amount of Safex Token one locks. In this unique way of staking, the staking reward is not paid out in the staked currency which is therefore not affected by inflation. Also, the annual percentage yield (APY) is not set by the protocol independently from transaction traffic but defined by the use of the protocol.

Anonymity

Cryptocurrency mining is not only a way to set up a profitable business or make a profit in smaller scale. People who care about their privacy can also use it as a way to receive cryptocurrency with no prior history and without the need to register on a cryptocurrency exchange at all. This means economic freedom since the currency is not tied to a specific entity. This feature is only present in equitable proof-of-work cryptocurrencies such as Safex Cash (SFX). This goes also for staking cryptocurrencies with the difference being that already wealthy stakers will also receive significantly higher rewards.

Final thoughts

On January 3rd, 2009 Satoshi Nakamoto, the inventor of Bitcoin, became the first cryptocurrency miner in history. Due to very low competition in the early years of cryptocurrencies and the specific emission schedules, miners were able to accumulate large amounts of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies. Today, mining has become a highly competitive industry. Mining as well as staking of cryptocurrencies with significant utility value and a projected increase of adoption can be expected to remain a profitable business for years to come.


Weekly Bitcoin / Ethereum Options Trading Series #1

Greetings,

I will be starting a series that I've created in separate options trading subs however I think this subreddit is the most appropriate and relevant for what I've been doing for the last couple of years.
For some context, I've been bullish on Bitcoin since the March equities crash in March of 2020. I expect to remain bullish throughout 2021 as 2020 is the halving year for Bitcoin and in historical cycles the supply shock from the reduced amount of Bitcoin causes rapid and parabolic price appreciation in the year after the halving. Combine this with the fact that central banks around the world are printing trillions of dollars we have ourselves a great recipe for success for some juicy Bitcoin profits. To add, one more bullish indicator has been the level of institutional investment that has been a landmark achievement in the waiting for many years.

Summary:
The week of 1/11/21-1/15/21 was choppy to say the least. The US equities markets completely tanked after Biden's talk of the $1.9T stimulus package which includes $1.4k checks for American citizens. The equities markets reacted poorly to the potentially higher taxes triggering a sell off which cascaded into the crypto markets on the 14th.

Bitcoin breakdown:
After the -30% correction down to $30.5k I took that opportunity to load up on Bitcoin long calls with a calendar spread - this play actually worked out perfectly as intended as Bitcoin bounced back to $40k. My positions and PnL are below. As of 1/17 I'm not in any large positions since price action seems range bound from 33k to 37k (give or take, Bitcoin could easily wick to lower 30's or jump to higher 30's). Unless major news comes out about an institutional buyer, or some other larger macroeconomic catalyst, I expect volatility to subside for this upcoming week. (Please keep in mind that this can literally change at any moment, depending on the news cycle). A major news event to look out for is the ongoing Tether "investigation" from the NYAG. The legal documentation had been submitted as of 1/15/21, but I believe it will take some time for them to review the documents before making any decisions.

https://preview.redd.it/utt2lyf4vyb61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ead0aebceb466e70a39d883482438ec83681422

Ethereum breakdown:
Since the OCC announcement, Ethereum looks like it has just been itching to break new ATHs. ETH price action reminds me of December 2020 when BTC was knocking on the door for new ATHs. It seems like a gravitation pull upwards for Ethereum as DeFi continues to grow at an immense rate and combined with ETH holders staking in ETH 2.0 - to me, it smells like a recipe cooking for new ATHs. I've been building long call positions for the next leg up which have been already juiced up due to volatility increasing since I entered these positions (these are all still open). I took a decent amount of profits from the previous leg up when we shot up about 40% which is why you see some positions with smaller sizes below 5. I'm letting these positions ride into expiration. If all else remains equal, I believe there are strong tailwinds from this OCC news on a very long-term macro view for Ethereum. In the short term I think we'll be chopping along with the equities markets. Similar to Bitcoin, this view can completely change depending on the news cycle or if some institutional investor announces a large investment.

https://preview.redd.it/73i3vjsjxyb61.png?width=802&format=png&auto=webp&s=762a63cfb04447f74e6a17b1c0486a2579da3819

Happy heisting!


[Winner's Thread #62] New start to a new year.

This is not how I was expecting to welcome 2021, but I can't say I'm too upset. My name is Bryant, and I am 27 years old. I'll do my best to make this short and sweet! I'm still shaking from the excitement as I write this.

Reading the post about my picking, I see that I was described as "taking on the role as a lurker" and "specialized discussion". I have to say both of these are spot on. I tend to enjoy being in the background until I find something that I am passionate about. I love to hear other people's opinions before I give my own because each of us has our own story that has helped us to shape said opinions.

While 2020 wasn't a particularly fantastic year by any standard, I had a new passion enter my life in the form of my daughter. She took a few extra days in the hospital but is happy (hopefully) and healthy. While I will continue to live and find happiness for myself, I am beyond excited to share the wonders of our world with her. I know the world isn't full of rainbows and butterflies, but I DO know that there are people in this world who can make it worth living.

What would I do with the money? The Million (haha) dollar question. I do have bills and a lot of this will definitely be going towards those. That being said, I can't in good mind not do something enjoyable with such a generous gift. Since I haven't been able, I will most definitely be treating my wife in some way, shape, or form. It will definitely be a safe method because we are still conscious of world events. Also, I noticed one of the top comments on the entry page, and due to that comment, I will be making a donation to the American Cancer Society with a potion of the funds that I receive. I don't want to go into the negative portions of my life because that shouldn't be what this is about. My life isn't perfect but I know we all have our struggles that no one can compare. I want to do my part in making someone else's life better.

One last note because you don't know me and I don't know you. If you don't want to donate to me or if you are unable, that's fine, no hard feelings. If you'd rather tell me that you contributed to a charity, please do! I want you to feel that your contribution is going to something you support.


Everything listed should result in direct lines of payment to /u/MontyTitan. We ask all users to donate at least $1 USD. The Drawing is also listed for users who want to see the results and confirm the validity of the winner.

Drawing: https://old.reddit.com/r/millionairemakers/comments/kz1zho/draw_62/

PayPal: https://paypal.me/montytitan

Venmo: @Bryant-Montgomery

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Collateral Loans on Bitcoin

I've noticed a lot of talk about financing using Bitcoin as collateral and using that to live off Bitcoin. I just want to share my thoughts and findings, both to solidify what is in my head, but also in the hopes that it helps anyone trying to understand it as well.

I've looked around, focusing on collateral loans, and there are a few financial products. Living in the UK, my options are limited. Some lenders allow borrowing for up to 3 years, whereas some only allow borrowing for a few months. There was Nexo which has an interest only plan with no time limit for paying off the capital. This is interesting, but one thing to note, they have an interest rate of 11.9% whereas others have around 8%. So that's around 4% for the convenience. Nexo can also increase your loan value instead of taking interest payments allowing you to survive the loan without any income until your collateral doesn't cover the loan anymore and you lose your collateral.

Borrowing for a few months is not really suitable for much because if you can earn the money you need in a few months, you probably don't need that loan. So it's kind of like payday loan and it is designed to get you by rather than to help you grow your wealth. It can also be useful for short term speculation based trading. It gives you money to play with and if you're lucky, you made a bit of money, but for me personally, the risk is too high to justify.

Borrowing for 3 years might lead you into the next bear market, so you may need to add to the collateral before you get to the end of the loan. You will be paying off the loan over time, so there's also a reasonable chance that you may never need to add more collateral. So what can you get for your collateral? You can get up to 80% of your Bitcoin's worth in Fiat, but most lenders offer up to 50% which is sensible. The more you borrow, the higher the chance of being asked for more collateral or having your loan immediately payable.

What do you do with that money? You can't live off of it, because then you'd have no money to pay back the loan. If you pay off the loan with the Bitcoin, that is a taxable event and you will need to pay taxes on that. Consider also, that if you are trying to reduce your tax bill, giving $2,000 after investing $1,000 and seeing it rise to $4,000 today, will leave you paying tax on 75% of your $2,000 payment, but in a few years, lets say your Bitcoin investment rose to $8,000, you would now be paying tax on 87.5% of your $2,000 and this is after paying loan interest. So you're not saving on taxes, but you are "keeping" your Bitcoin as Bitcoin which is good. You have to project your expectations, compare the profits and losses and decide if the benefit is worth the risk. Part of that is knowing if the risk is something that could break you financially. If it is, don't go any further, it isn't worth any potential reward. A lot of people cite these loans as a way to avoid paying taxes, so I will assume they are not talking about this strategy.

Ok, so what do you do with the money? You re-invest it. I don't think investing into Bitcoin is great when trying to avoid taxes, because again, in order to pay the loan, you need to sell some of the Bitcoin and we're back to the previous scenario. So instead, maybe you can invest in property. You now have 2 loans, but you also have a source of income in the best case scenario. Buying a property for renting has its own risks to consider, but you can make some income if you do it responsibly. The key here is earning rent money. If you aren't doing that, you can't pay your loans. This is income and you will be taxed on that. You also might only get enough rent to cover the mortgage, if you're smart, you have excess to cover interest on your first loan and maybe even some collateral to protect against bear markets requiring you to add more Bitcoin to your collateral.

Let's talk about taxes on that rent. You earn $900, and you pay $500 on the mortgage, $100 of which is interest. So you get $400 to spend a month (although some of it should go towards your loan) but you pay tax on $800 of profit because they only allow you to offset the interest part of your mortgage. You also need to save a lot of that money for expenses like fixing the boiler and that means you still haven't got enough to live. You get multiple properties, but that's not living off Bitcoin as much as living off a real estate.

Can you re-invest the money into Bitcoin and earn income from that instead? Well yes, but when you cash out, you have to declare it for gains (unless you cash out immediately, some companies might help by paying your interest in fiat) and you'd pay income tax with no relief for the loan interest. Turns out the real estate guys figured out how to be special and get relief for their loans. Right off the bat, your interest will be lower than the interest on the loan. You usually can get about 6% but pay interest on the loan around 8% - 12%. Eventually, if Bitcoin becomes super valuable, your interest can overtake the loan interest because 6% of your Bitcoin is more than 12% of your original loan in fiat. That's a long term hope based on speculation, that's a high risk and you're making losses in the short term.

On top of all of that, you could have instead put the Bitcoin into an interest account instead of even doing anything with the loan and you'd get twice the interest since you put in twice the amount of Bitcoin, and no debts to pay.

If your Bitcoin was worth millions, you could put your coins into something like Nexo and take small loans over time to spend on living. This should give you plenty of space for adding more collateral on margin calls during bear markets, and you can even have the interest pile up on the collateral. This might last for a while and you can live the life, but eventually, you will owe a large amount to Nexo and they may have a limit to how much you can borrow with this strategy (it would seem dumb not to) so you will then have a bill to pay. If Bitcoin is constantly rising, then you could have lived the life for a while and even borrowed millions when you started with just a million dollars of Bitcoin and when you go to pay it all off, you might still only give up a fraction of your Bitcoin. In this case, you did well, but for the sake of taxes, you still have to pay taxes on the amount you pay back (which is the amount you borrowed* plus interest) but by then, you've already let that money work for you. You have deferred the taxes enough that pretty much used inflation to your advantage, but you didn't completely avoid taxes. There's some maths to do to see how much that benefit is because the difference may influence your decision.

*The amount you borrowed minus the price you purchased that much Bitcoin for, but by then it's probably so small its negligible.

The last option is probably the best option, but you have to start with a substantial amount of Bitcoin and then you might want to diversify your assets in case Bitcoin crashes enough to put you in trouble, then your other asset might prevent you from bankruptcy. You also have more risk than just the price of Bitcoin; you have your Bitcoin in someone else's custody and that is also a pretty big risk. There's also still a lot of controversy around Bitcoin and governments are still allowed to govern the companies that you service with.

Ultimately, maybe if I get millions in Bitcoin, I might look into the risks again to see if they are reduced by then and possibly look into this then. But for now, it seems like the risk reward ratio for these loans are just not sensible.

I also think that even if I did take this strategy, I would want to use half of the money I borrow to invest in another asset so the risk is diversified. That asset will give me time to sort everything out if it all goes south and I need to get a job after all.

Oh, and then there's inheritance tax. Guess they get the last laugh!

I'll end with a question: What are people's thoughts? Did I get something wrong? Has it helped you? Do you have a different strategy in mind?


FBI: Foreign Bitcoin Linked to Capitol Events

FBI is investigating if a foreign government bitcoin payment helped fun the capitol events.

https://www.businessinsider.com/fbi-investigates-foreign-bitcoin-funding-for-capitol-rioters-nbc-news-2021-1


[TASK] Looking for someone who wants to earn some money playing a video game as my assistant in the game. NOTE: Please read the ENTIRE post.

I am looking someone to be my assistant in a computer game called Starblast.io. I will be paying $40USD for 3 to 6 of help guaranteed with the potential of making up to $65USD or even $80USD if you exceed all expectations. I need help in an event called Alpha Centari Wars, it's a massive pvp event that takes place once a month and lasts anywhere between 3 to 6 hours (next one is today Sunday 17, 2021). The goal of the game is to destroy the enemies  base using your spacefighter. It's a simple game where you mine asteroids for gems that allow you to upgrade your ship, base, and buy weapons. It's begging at 1:00pm Mountain Standard Time

NOTE: You must be available now since the event is in a few hours, I will invite you to a private match to practice, it's a simple game easy to learn.

Requirements:

  1. A good computer and internet connection with no lag.
  2. You are not already a Starblast.io player (it would be too easy to goof off and urge to do their own thing is too great).
  3. None of my friends or family are eligible
  4. If chosen you have to follow all my orders, failure to do so will result in forefit of payment.
  5. Are free to play on Sundays
  6. You must practice
  7. Be willing to communicate through Google Hangouts or if you have another way in mind im open to suggestions.

Rewards: -I will pay $40 guaranteed for just helping and doing a decent job. -If your performance is really good you can earn an extra $10 or $15 for exceptional. - If the team I play for wins the event you will earn another $10 - If you are exceptional there will opportunities to make money every month.

Payment: -I can pay by depositing funds into a PayPal or -payment in the form of Litecoin or Bitcoin (your choice) -Amazon gift card in earned amount 

Job: Your job will be that of a healer, you will follow me and repair my ship with healing lasers and I mine for gems. After the base is fully upgraded and we get our Tier 7 ships  your role will switch to combat. Your ship will be one I choose that will be an important part of the fleet.


Changelly stole my assets

Two days ago, I swapped eth to btc on myetherwallet.com for a large amount. There was no certain limit or any kyc agreement while performing this transaction on myetherwallet.com. After this contract, I waited for hours and bitcoin did not reach me. I contacted changelly after seeing this. I wanted help with them fixing this problem. They told me to do KYC and on the same day they confirmed the KYC transaction. After this transaction, they started to ask me questions that would not be asked in the crypto money industry. They requested official documents from me that I had received these assets and I sent them all formally. After that, they asked me for proof that the account belongs to me and I sent it correctly. I sent the summaries of my bank accounts and my citizen ID. They enforced rules that did not exist in any exchange within Bitcoin or Ethereum. After completing all the verification processes, they suddenly stopped communicating with me.

When I announced that I would share this event on certain social media platforms, they told me that I should not do this and they would be interested. Over the hours, bitcoin fell and I lost an incredible thousands of dollars. My assets have decreased in value. This is a complete crime. I have never encountered such a thing on any bitcoin-ethereum p2p exchange. What's Changelly's purpose? When I examined other platforms, I saw that there were thousands of complaints. Many people's money is confiscated. There are many reasons as justification, but all of them are scam! Talking to live chat on changelly.com does nothing but distract you! does not help! changelly regret. I will continue to share this topic on many social media because of their behavior. I want my beings to come back. There was nothing criminal and authentication was verified. Bank summaries verified. His questions were answered. the account has been confirmed to be mine. But they still have taken over my crypto assets! do not use changelly. Changelly steals your money.

u/Changelly