TLDR in the end
First of all, let me start by saying that im not a financial expert nor a financial advisor. This is not financial advice.
Second, a big thank you to everyone in r/CryptoCurrency. Great community! The amount of education I was able to get in a short amount of time, is also thanks to many of you! Im converting most of my personal wealth to crypto and Im already on the works to change pretty much 100% the way my company works. Professional/Social world is now a digital experience, that has many implications and I couldn't just remain still while the whole world around me is shifting.
(ok, lets start)
Why we are in the beginning of the Biggest Bull Market in Crypto?
Because we are reaching the end of the Dollar/debt monetary system. GMR. What does this mean? Global Monetary Reset. The last one was in 1971. Some information about it:
1971 GMR Facts
- US President Nixon temporarily suspended the dollar's convertibility into gold (effectively permanent - still suspended as of 2018)
- This effectively ended the Bretton Woods Agreement
Before the 1971 GMR
- Previously dollars were convertible into gold at $35 per ounce
After the 1971 GMR
- The dollar is no longer convertible into a fixed value of anything
- Allowed all currencies to float against each other
- Allowed politicians and central bankers to print money and spend with abandon (convertability to gold was not holding them back)
- Allowed large deficit spending
- Allowed rapid increase in credit
- Resulted in inflation
- Effectively removed the mechanism that balanced trade deficits over time
- Resulted in some countries having massive and long-sustained trade deficits
- trade and account balances never get settled (since there is no global reserve asset like gold)
- Allowed domestic monetary polices to avoid financial discipline that was historically imposed by the gold standard
- trade imbalanced no longer resulted in loss of gold & domestic deflation
Reasons for the 1971 GMR
- The US printed more dollars that it could back with how much gold it had (at the $35 exchange rate)
- Cause by significant war spending (Korean war, Vietnam, Cold war) and welfare spending
- Due to the rise in US paper dollars, foreign countries started to convert their dollars into gold
- This started to quickly drain the US gold supply
- Ending the dollar convertibility to gold stopped this outflow
1971 GMR Impacts
- Removed the primary reason why foreign countries held dollars
- The dollar started to depreciate rapidly against other currencies
- Oil producing countries started to ask for payment in gold instead of dollars
- Created the need for the Petrodollar SystemSource: link
Now for some perspective, lets also check out some actual numbers and charts.
M1 Money Stock - https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/FRED-M1/
What Is M1?
M1 is the money supply that is composed of physical currency and coin, demand deposits, travelers' checks, other checkable deposits, and negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts. M1 includes the most liquid portions of the money supply because it contains currency and assets that either are or can be quickly converted to cash. However, "near money" and "near, near money," which fall under M2 and M3, cannot be converted to currency as quickly. Investopedia
Great. Now lets look at our baby.
Bitcoin - https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/
Bitcoin is a type of cryptocurrency. There are no physical bitcoins, only balances kept on a public ledger that everyone has transparent access to. All bitcoin transactions are verified by a massive amount of computing power. Bitcoins are not issued or backed by any banks or governments, nor are individual bitcoins valuable as a commodity. Despite it not being legal tender, Bitcoin is very popular and has triggered the launch of hundreds of other cryptocurrencies, collectively referred to as altcoins. Bitcoin is commonly abbreviated as "BTC." Investopedia
Great. The charts had a huge spike, almost correlated I guess. Lets not make assumptions here! Ok, lets look at some more data.
The Greatest Wealth Transfer In History - https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhall/2019/11/11/the-greatest-wealth-transfer-in-history-whats-happening-and-what-are-the-implications/ - Nov 11, 2019
Over the next two decades, the United States will experience an unprecedented shift of demographics and finances that will likely be felt by every American.
Baby Boomers, the generation of people born between 1944 and 1964, are expected to transfer $30 trillion in wealth to younger generations over the next many years. This jaw-dropping amount has led many journalists and financial experts to refer to the gradual event as the “great wealth transfer.”
In no prior time in the history of America has such a vast amount of wealth moved through the hands of generations.
Bitcoin is 'more a substitute for gold than the dollar' — Fed Chair PowellWhile Bitcoin (BTC) is too volatile to be money and is "backed by nothing," it could be a "substitute for gold," said the chair of the United States Federal Reserve.
Speaking at an event hosted by the Bank for International Settlements, or BIS, on Monday, Jerome Powell delivered frank comments in response to a question on cryptocurrency. Source
For now, we have a Money stock chart that looks similar to Bitcoin chart, which means that there is a correlation with the increase amount of money in the world and the growing of bitcoins market cap. The younger generation are the "Bitcoiners", and at the same time we will witness The Greatest Wealth Transfer In History. Then, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is already saying it might be a substitute for gold...
Things are getting spicy!
Automation & Job loss StatisticsMore than 25% of jobs in the US are experiencing high levels of disruption due to automation.
This figure amounted to 36 million jobs in 2016, with more than 70% at high risk of being replaced by automation. The same research on jobs at risk of automation found that 36% of American workers face medium-level exposure to these disruptive technologies by 2030, while 39% – or 57 million jobs – will face low-level exposure. Source
Enough of data. Now let me tell you what is my interpretation. Its worth what its worth.
I believe we are already in the middle-end stages of the transition of monetary system. Its not meant to be a 1 day thing. And if we think that when they are FOMOing, we are being a bit naive imo. Changes with gigantic proportions like a monetary system reset takes years until its in place. So now, let me remind you of the massive corporation and institutional adoption of Bitcoin during 2020 and in the start of 2021, it is only getting faster and wider. Now, lets also remember the fact that Bitcoin's 2024* halvening will dramatically decrease the Bitcoin supply, just like last year.
I am honestly OVERWHELMED by how far the crypto world has evolved. The amount of good ideas in the space is mind blowing. What I see hapenning in the future? DeFi is bringing a new economy. A new way of work, A new way of getting value. Its not money anymore, its cryptocurrency. Examples of this:
- Brave users are rewarded in BAT (Basic Attention Token) for the ads they watch. Users get paid by attention spent on ads.
- Decentraland casino is now HIRING! - link
- Many games rewarding players with crypto
- r/CryptoCurrency and moons. In the future, who knows what this little thingy can do/buy,
- The whole NFT industry will most likely be the new way of distributing art and media, who knows what more can come from there.
(...)
Again, im not a financial expert nor a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. Im not a professional at this but I consider having an "accurate" view of how the world works and, from all the signals we've been getting, I have no doubts anymore.
TLDR: Global Monetary Reset incoming, go back to the top and read the post. Not trying to be provocative but helpful! Do your own research.
Please, if you have read this whole thing leave your opinion, I would really like to discuss this perspective with other people. Thank you for your time!