Thursday, November 17, 2022

Crypto Investor Briefing – November 2022

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November 2022 

As we head into the last quarter of 2022, it’s shaping up to be a rather dismal year. According to QCP Capital’s latest edition of “The Crypto Circular”, “…2022 has become the worst performing year in history for a cross-asset portfolio, even eclipsing the stagflationary 1970s!”. Most damaging of all has been the positive correlation between fixed income and risk assets.  “Nowhere to Hide…” as the publication is titled, hits home (see chart below). The crypto market was marred by its own set of events outside of macroeconomic forces: the collapse of Terra LUNA/UST, Celsius Network and Voyager Digital’s bankruptcy, and the implosion of Three Arrows Capital, to name a few. Are there any silver linings for a crypto-investor in The Crypto Winter of 2022?

Regulation. As highlighted by our CEO in our October newsletter, crypto-regulation is coming whether you like it or not. Sparked by the collapse of Terra in May 2022, regulators worldwide have stopped dragging their feet about crypto regulation and are making active progress towards devising a suitable framework. The U.S. published its first-ever regulatory framework on crypto, Singapore is working with industry players to revise regulations, Japan is implementing AML/KYC enforcement to crypto, and the list goes on. While regulations can sometimes be cumbersome, a clear and well-defined framework builds trust in the industry. It will eventually facilitate growth and capital when safeguards are in place. 

Building. Much like an old-growth forest needs a good fire to renew itself, the meltdown has purged undesirable practices from the system allowing it to build back stronger. And build back, we’ve seen: Ethereum finally transitioned to Proof-of-Stake in September, governments globally are researching their own Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), TradFi companies like BlackRock, NASDAQ and SWIFT are making investments and partnerships into blockchain/crypto, and even non-finance companies like Google, Tiffany & Co. and Disney are making headway into the space. At Tokenomy, we are also focused on building and are continually improving our platform and product offerings. For example, we launched our iOS application and introduced the customized DCD (dual currency deposit) product this year. 

Removal of “hot money”. Almost $2 trillion of market capitalization has been removed from the system since it peaked in November 2021. A significant amount of speculative capital has been removed, and what remains are long-term investors that see value in the technology. At Tokenomy, we too have a long-term mindset regarding investing, and the current environment is much healthier. With continued interest and investment from large asset managers and increasing recognition and acceptance of cryptocurrency as an asset class in multi-asset portfolios, this introduces stability to the market.  

As you can see, a lot is going on under the “sea of red” numbers on your screen. There’s much to be hopeful for as a long-term investor as these silver linings progress. 

Kenny Chiang
Research & Analytics
Tokenomy

Chart: 2022 YTD Real Returns (YoY CPI Adjusted)

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Bitcoin may be a safe haven again according to Bank of America digital strategists, Alkesh Shah and Andrew Moss, who looked at the cryptocurrency’s correlation with gold, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. “A decelerating positive correlation with SPX/QQQ and a rapidly rising correlation with XAU indicate that investors may view Bitcoin as a relatively safe haven as macro uncertainty continues and a market bottom remains to be seen,” the strategists wrote. A return to haven status would back up one of the leading investment arguments for Bitcoin, whose proponents suggested could represent a form of “digital gold.” 

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Google Cloud to Let Users Pay With Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin via Coinbase. Internet giant Google today said it would use Coinbase to accept crypto payments for cloud services early next year, according to a report by CNBC. Google announced the deal at this year’s Cloud Next, a conference where Google pitches its state-of-the-art cloud computing business (which accounts for nearly a tenth of its revenue) to companies. 

Bank of New York Mellon is now open for crypto business. The nation’s oldest bank would become the first large U.S. bank to safeguard digital assets alongside traditional investments on the same platform. BNY Mellon won the approval of New York’s financial regulator to begin receiving select customers’ bitcoin and ether starting in October 2022. The bank will use Fireblocks software to store the keys to access and transfer those assets. The move marks an important milestone for traditional banks and their growing acceptance of digital assets as a legitimate market and a source of new business. 

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Japan is preparing an amendment to enforce Financial Action Task Force (FATF) travel rules on crypto by May 2023, Nikkei reported. The amendment will be introduced in the National Diet on Oct. 3, requiring exchange operators to collect customer information in transactions involving cryptocurrency and stablecoins. The Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act and the International Terrorist Asset-Freezing Act will be updated to reflect the same changes, which will go into effect in May 2023.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) published two consultation papers proposing regulatory measures to reduce the risk of consumer harm from cryptocurrency trading and to support the development of stablecoins as a credible medium of exchange.

South Korea plans to offer a digital identity secured by blockchain to citizens with a smartphone as it taps into the world’s most tech-savvy population to boost economic growth. Korea sees the economic value of digital IDs at around 3% of GDP. Smartphone-implanted IDs are among the latest emerging technologies underpinning a digital economy that has expanded as more people work from home, make cashless payments, and explore the metaverse.

California state Senator Robert Hertzberg, introduced a bill to allow residents’ vital records to be kept on the blockchain. Governor Gavin Newsom approved this bill to establish the technology as an integral part of state recordkeeping. He instructs county records offices to allow for the use of blockchain technology and verifiable credentials. The technology would be established to distribute birth, death, and marriage records, allowing PDFs to be sent immediately rather than a typical 10-day postal delivery. 

The Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI) estimates that by mid-September 2022 (21/09/2022), approximately 199.65 MtCO2e (million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) can be attributed to the Bitcoin network since its inception. The 48.35 MtCO2e this year represents roughly 0.10% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is similar to countrieslike Nepal (48.37 MtCO2e) and the Central African Republic (46.58 MtCO2e), or about half that of gold mining (100.4 MtCO2e). 

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Bitcoin’s mining difficulty rose to an all-time high. The latest difficulty adjustment is in, and it now stands at 35.6 trillion, up a whopping 13.55% from the previous measure.

The current network hash rate is 257 million terahashes per second (TH/s), according to blockchain.com, a significant rise from last year when it was at around 140 million TH/s. Rising difficulty paints an even drearier picture for bitcoin miners already feeling the squeeze of weak bitcoin prices and higher energy costs.

TBD partners with Circle to bring USD stablecoin savings and remittances global. TBD is the bitcoin-focused subsidiary of Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey’s Block. The collaboration aims to lay the foundation to access stablecoins globally, so that developers can build upon the infrastructure and crypto wallet providers can plug into the open-source protocol. It includes building sufficient links – on-ramps and off-ramps – between the traditional government-issued (fiat) currencies and blockchain-based digital currencies.

Coinbase and Blockchain.com have secured in-principle approval (IPA) from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to operate as a major payments institution in the country. The approval enables them to provide regulated digital payment token (DPT) products and solutions in Singapore. So far, Singapore has given 17 IPAs and licenses to DPT platforms. Nearly 180 crypto firms applied for the licence in Singapore last year.

SWIFT, the interbank messaging system that allows for cross-border payments, is working with Chainlink, a provider of price feeds and other data to blockchains, on a cross-chain interoperability protocol (CCIP) in an initial proof-of-concept. CCIP will enable SWIFT messages to instruct on-chain token transfers, helping the interbank network to be able to communicate across all blockchain environments.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released its full report on its mBridge wholesale Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) platform after a successful pilot, detailing how commercial banks in four jurisdictions transferred funds using CBDCs.

BNB Chain, the native blockchain behind the Binance crypto exchange, suffered a $566 million exploit after a hack on the BSC Token Hub bridge. The hacker took a novel approach to siphon the funds across other networks, making off with about $110 million. The BNB Chain halted the network and is weighing an asset freeze, highlighting major centralization issues. This exploit marked the 6th largest DeFi hack

Metaverse trading volume dropped 80%, but the hype hasn’t decreased, according to DappRadar. It stated that Q3 trading volume for the top 10 Metaverse projects may have fallen 80% from Q2, but this could mainly reflect the decreasing asset price (e.g. the floor prices for NFT land plots had decreased by 75% on average) and not necessarily lack of interest. Moreover, the average number of NFT sales only decreased by 11.55% compared to Q2.

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Three Arrows Capital’s (3AC) NFT collections are to be liquidated. Starry Night Capital, the NFT investment fund owned by 3AC’s founders, is moving more than 300 digital collectables to Teneo, the liquidator behind 3AC’s bankruptcy proceedings. 

According to data from a Dune Analytics dashboard, the fund spent $35 million on NFTs last year.  But the collection’s value, now at 625 ETH, dwindled to under $1 million, according to the latest analysis by Nansen

Huobi is selling a majority stake to About Capital Management, a Hong Kong-based investment company. Huobi said there would be no impact on the exchange’s core operations, and it would focus on international business expansion. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Kim Kardashian has been charged with unlawfully touting crypto security by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The regulator said that Kardashian didn’t disclose the payment received for promoting EthereumMax’s token. The star has agreed to pay $1.26 million in penalties and will work with the SEC on its ongoing investigation. “This case is a reminder that, when celebrities or influencers endorse investment opportunities, including crypto-asset securities, it doesn’t mean those investment products are right for all investors,” SEC Chair Gary Gensler said on Twitter.

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  • Behind the Binance Chain Hack – Binance could quickly convince BNB Chain validators to halt the blockchain in response to a recent hack — is that really decentralization? An insightful analysis by Blockworks. 
  • Blockchain data platform Chainalysis published its third annual Geography of Cryptocurrency Report. One of the key takeaways shows that although crypto adoption slows worldwide in a bear market, the adoption rate remains above pre-bull market levels. 
  • Why Trading Is Essential for Crypto – If you think traders give crypto a bad name, just imagine an industry without them. This op-ed is part of CoinDesk’s Trading Week.
  • Bloomberg Businessweek decided to devote an entire issue to explaining crypto development at the crossroads of tech and finance—and what it means for everything.

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  • Dual Currency Deposit is an excellent tool for short-term speculators when price volatility is high! Earn enhanced returns on BTC, ETH, and USDT deposits. 
  • Tokenomy Loan is live! Pledge your crypto assets to borrow IDK in just a few clicks! 

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What the FUD?

Hi all

There has been a lot of FUD lately which is totally understandable during a bear market but let's be realistic, there was not one single news that indicates an entire collapse of Algorand.

The FTX type of event will not happen to Algo, it simply can't because Algo is simply one (outstanding) crypto currency while FTX was an exchange platform that was terribly managed.

The fundamentals of Algo has not changed. Opposite is the case, there are more and more partnerships. Have you ever tried to move Algos from A to B? I just moved all of them off exchanges to my trust wallet. I paid 0.5 Algos and the transfer was done within seconds. Point is: the technology works and it's awesome!

While so many people worry about the current market and the state of Algo, I have been accumulating my bag at price levels that I thought would never happen again.

I will keep buying Algos with every pay check at $0.3 level and below as I genuinely believe that this is a buying opportunity of a lifetime. The longer the bear market the better as I have more time to earn fiat and buy at low levels.

Next bullrun will be insane, looking forward to the price levels in two years time. I believe the timing of the next Bitcoin halving (April 2024) will trigger the next bullrun as it should align nicely with marco economics will have calmed down by then. From now to Q2 2023 is the biggest buying opportunity imo. From Q2 2023 to Q1 2024 macro economics will stagnate and then Q2 2024 the party begins.


Don’t miss out when @Bitcoin_Beyond represents BSV at the TechCrunch Sessions 2022! As Head of Protocol Stability for BSV Blockchain Association, he is a prolific speaker on the subject of blockchain scaling and Web3. Follow the event here:

https://twitter.com/BitcoinAssn/status/1593243060866990080

Golden State Warriors Pause FTX Relationship

https://cryptopotato.com/golden-state-warriors-pause-ftx-relationship-report/

One of the most successful NBA teams – Golden State Warriors – reportedly paused all marketing endeavors related to the distressed crypto exchange FTX.

The latter filed for bankruptcy last week after failing to honor its clients’ withdrawal requests.

  • According to recent coverage, the basketball club stopped advertising all FTX products and services.
  • The last promotion was on Monday (November 14), and it was related to Golden State Warriors shooting guard Jordan Poole.
  • Miami Heat is another NBA giant that cut ties with the crypto platform. The team said what happened to the company was “extremely disappointing” and vowed to change the name of its home ground – FTX Arena.
  • The meltdown of the trading venue has been a devastating event for the entire cryptocurrency industry, causing additional mayhem amid the ongoing bear market.
  • Changpeng Zhao (CZ) recently likened the FTX fiasco to the 2008 global market crash, one of the most severe monetary crises since the Great Depression from the beginning of the 20th century.

The collapse triggered numerous investors to pull out their funds from exchanges. As CryptoPotato reported, users had withdrawn $3.7 billion worth of bitcoin, $2.5 billion worth of ether, and around $2 billion worth of stablecoins in a matter of a week.


The Elon Musk Scam

So Elon Musk is purchasing Twitter, and you can bet that fraudsters are taking advantage of the situation. As Elon Musk spends the majority of the week in the news, so do Elon Musk-themed scams—and they seem to be on the rise. A swarm of responses from the guy himself in reaction to a statement.

If you have faced these kinds of scams or posts, report a scam with Report Scammed Bitcoin.

The URLs in their responses are all shortened. Whichever one a user chooses, they all lead to the same website. And like other Musk fans, Sebastian also fell into this trap.

Sebastian will always recall the day he lost £407,000 with a mixture of fury and guilt. Otherwise, the preceding night had been unremarkable.

Before she went to bed, he and his wife watched a Netflix series together, leaving him to fiddle with his phone on the couch. Then he got an Elon Musk-related Twitter notice.

"Musk tweeted, 'Dojo 4 Doge?' and I questioned what it meant," Sebastian said to the BBC. So I clicked on the link to the new event below to find out that he was giving away Bitcoin! 

Sebastian clicked the link and arrived at a well-designed website where the Bitcoin giveaway appeared to be ongoing. There was a timer counting down, and the website promised participants they could double their money.

Elon Musk's Tesla team was running the competition. It invited people to send anything from 0.1 Bitcoin (worth approximately £4,300) to 20 Bitcoin (about £860,000), and the team would send back double the amount.

Sebastian double-checked the verification logo next to Elon Musk's name and then tried to decide whether to send five or 10 Bitcoin.

"'Take the maximum,' I thought, this is real, so I sent 10 Bitcoin."

As the timer wound down for the next 20 minutes, Sebastian waited for the prize to land in his Bitcoin wallet.

He sat there refreshing his screen every 30 seconds from his house in Cologne, Germany. Then, finally, he watched Mr. Musk tweet a new, cryptic message and was reassured that the giveaway was genuine. 

Sebastian remarked, "I recognized then that it was a hoax," when the website's timer gradually decreased to zero. 

My heart thumped loudly as I threw my head upon the couch cushions. I believed I had just thrown away a lifeline for my loved ones, my early retirement fund, and all the approaching holidays spent with my children." 

To tell my wife, I walked upstairs and sat on the edge of the bed. I told her I had made a significant error when I roused her from sleep."

He spent hours sending emails to the fraudulent website and tweets to the false Elon Musk Twitter account to recover all or a portion of his money. However, he gradually believed that he had irretrievably lost the money.

Analysts have identified which Bitcoin addresses or wallets are operated by so-called "giveaway scammers" and have tracked the increasing amount of money they are making. Sebastian's 10 Bitcoin was the most they'd ever recorded losing in one transaction.

After spending several days with a sorrowful heart, he found Report Scammed Bitcoin and reported his incident to its form. He expected to get a result in his try to recover his money. So he talked with the expert of RSB and got some excellent suggestions and recommendations on the recovery process.

In 2021, fraudsters were reportedly earning record-breaking amounts. In the first three months of this year, giveaway gangs have already made more than $18 million (£13 million), compared to the $16 million earned for all of 2020.

Moreover, data predict that the number of casualties this year will surpass that of prior years. In 2020, around 10,500 individuals fell for the fraud, but analysts have already identified 5,600 people who have contributed money this year.

Since the advent of the frauds in 2018, the crooks' methods have not altered much. They construct Twitter profiles that resemble those of celebrities such as Elon Musk and billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya.

In certain instances, like the one that deceived Sebastian, fraudsters utilize the stolen accounts of notable individuals to guarantee that the accounts receive the blue verified checkmark, making them seem more trustworthy.

They wait for the legitimate accounts to tweet and then publish a reply that makes it seem like the celebrities tweeted the fraud to their millions of followers.

Twitter is a popular medium, but you may find giveaway frauds on YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.

Sebastian desires that foreign authorities take action against the fraudsters and that Bitcoin exchange owners assist proactively. But, this is a harsh truth that foreign authorities and other big investigation organizations do not go all the way to investigate and recover the money as they put their limit on gathering information and tracking the criminal.

People who have lost money might get assistance from organizations such as RSB. They recommend that the appropriate parties work on these matters and assist those parties through legal contacts, consultations, and procedures.

"Bitcoin is too simple to steal. All exchange platform websites should know their clients' identities and if criminals are exploiting a particular wallet address."

In July 2020, a large-scale but short-lived Twitter breach enabled fraudsters to post using famous accounts such as Bill Gates, Kim Kardashian-West, and Elon Musk.

We recommend you get in touch with the Report Scammed Bitcoin if you've lost money sent to the applicable BTC address. Additionally, we recommend that you pay no attention to any of the many Elon Musk-related Bitcoin giveaways that are now ongoing.

Please read our latest articles on recent scam trends and the lists of categorized scammers. In addition, we have a dedicated list on the investment blacklist, forex scammer list and cryptocurrency scammer list.

One thing that stands out about these schemes is how inventive the con artists are in their attempts to convince you to join them. These are not lazy generic websites, and they are just wacky enough to fool Elon Musk enthusiasts into thinking they are genuine article.


Dam you AMC 😂

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11/17/2022 Daily Plays NVDA earnings down 50% Sales down 17% PE ratio of 60-70? CULT! Someone asked me about TBLT it may be a "Runner" not a "Grenade" looked into it yesterday, Tom Lee Money manager frequent on CNBC causes FOMO and instead of replying blocks me, thats what he thinks of 100K wager

Good morning everyone. I am always welcome to opinions or ideas. I just created the flair for after hours trading. It was necessary because Sparky is nice enough to post ideas as early as 4AM. If there is a flair needed, or idea, I always listen. Even if the stock is a grenade, trust me, I listen! I want to see the thought process and why, and if it makes sense for me, I want to take part in the trade/idea. In 2000 when I lost about 75% it wasn’t about the money I lost. I shut down because I was tired of losing. I spent months, I am not sure how many, but I believe 4-5 months before I traded again. There was no paper trading back then. What I did was study all the signs leading up to the dot com bust. All the signs in the world, I missed. Not just the stock market, the US economy, the world economy, gas, oil and gold. I came up with rules, made promises to myself so I would never lose like that again. When 2008 came around, I was never down more than 25% and the same with 2020 pandemic. It was mainly because I went on the sidelines when I saw the signs again, I made bearish bets that pulled me positive quickly. This is all adapting. If you are trading, you have to constantly adapt, pivot and see the world economy, events. Of course, this is not necessary but if you want to be successful these are keys to success. My blow up in 2000 is the main reason I am risk averse. It doesn’t mean it is the best way to be, it means it coincides with my comfort level for what my goals are, and where I want to be…

Yesterday a couple of people asked me about Bitcoin, and general about Crypto. I am not Charlie Munger… I don’t say its worthless. I believe there will be 5-10 coins, 10 at most that is widely accepted. However, I do not know how to value Bitcoin or Etherium, I understand mining secures the block chain but you don’t have to mine or own Bitcoin or Etherium in order to use information on the block chain.. Because you do not need to have any [own it] or mine it either to have access to the block chain I do not see how to properly value it.. So to me, I will stay away. It does not mean I feel it is worthless, but I certainly don’t see how it has a 15,500 price at the moment. Certainly not! It costs now wit utilities probably near 2,000 to mine a bitcoin and they are running scarce, so maybe 4-5,000? But that’s speculating, and if you know me, I do not like to speculate. Rather than speculate I will buy 1 of 8,200 stocks that trade. People asked me about ISIG and TBLT yesterday. These are speculative plays. They don’t consistently have large sales or make money….TBLT printed a few million shares to get about 7 million dollars…

The good news.. they announced earnings the other day and the growth was amazing! They made near 40 cents a share…. It sounds excellent……

Until you find out that’s 500k!!! So you need to find out the exact numbers.. The company has lost millions in the past. It is a small company that needs money.. However, the growth is amazing, and going on the AMZN platform has been a game changer. If you are stuck in this, I hope it isn’t yolo, but I would keep an eye on it, because if they keep executing like this it is a runner. [A company that can make money within 18 months, has a game plan, a good path] These are companies that you do want in a bull market. Companies that constantly grow at 30%. Remember the SP500 grows sales at 10-20%, generally, anything 30% up is hyper growth and should get a premium to the 18-19x the SP trades at… Especially if they are making money!

Before I get into NVDA I wanted to go over a few things.

Many people think I am crazy, to cocky, obnoxious. I promise you, I don’t even talk about the stock market in real life. PROMISE! I don’t like to! You are reading my thoughts going into the day trading, I want people to understand psyche so they can mirror, learn. If I just wrote trades, you would not gain the same knowledge for trading.

Also, imagine Lebron James, never played in the NBA. People saw him play at the park, in the streets. He knew, I am not saying thinks, he knows he is better than everyone else, and he was never to be the billionaire that he is today… How does he feel..

If Lebron James analyzes a game, analyzes plays, movement from players, and you are reading his mind and his thoughts on basketball.. You would immediately say he is the credentials and nod your head… I am 100% positive anyone reading Lebron James thoughts on each basketball play will say he is confident, cocky, arrogant.. but they don’t.. know why? because they know he is Lebron James! Here, people have the same feeling about me, because they don’t know me! And that is ok, because I am not looking for validation from anyone. I want money, and an opportunity.. SeekingAlpha contacted me yesterday about some ideas, they will email me soon. I want to get my name out there and blow everyone out the water, so I can make the millions if not billions. I am retired as of last year, I didn’t need to work when I started in 2012, It is not about the money, the 500K, it is my birth right to manage money. I was fine being in the shadows and chose to come on Reddit for this opportunity January 26th of 2021. This did not waver. My first video documenting this was April 1st of 2021, when I completed trades for 60 calendar days and asking Jim Cramer to help me get noticed. I tweeted him and sent CNBC the video.. there was no segment for me, unfortunately. Video here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-m1QVwJ-Ifg&t=713s

I did not waver in my desire for an opportunity and my desire to help retail while I get it. Now, I know this may never come and I am accepting of that, but at worst I want stocks to move in the direction that I want! Carson Block of Muddy Waters revealed a short on DLO and it fell 50%.. Why does he have the power, and I don’t? He is known, I assure you that I am just as good if not better than him…I am definitely getting noticed on Twitter. I am blocked by 10 or so money managers, analysts, I tweeted yesterday some of them. Even though I am being blocked I can still tweet them, I just cant see their tweets. I like to follow traders, analysts for ideas, because even someone that has never traded before may have an idea.. heck TBLT memed because of APES and we may have something there, check that growth! They must keep executing. If it didn’t meme I and many others would never have heard of it. I like to know when I am wrong and why… If I came on TV and caused massive FOMO and was wrong. Not only would I come on TV and announce my mistake and why, I would put myself on a time out of 30-90 days. I would be ashamed… Instead Tom Lee doubles down and says we are going to have more fierce a rally. A Santa Clause rally, that the fed will stop hiking rates in December… WRONG AND WRONG! Don’t these people causing FOMO have any consequences.. In January everyone on CNBC was bullish on RBLX and BA… It caused my puts to go down! Is that fair? You think it is fair to bears that 95% + of traders can only make money on a bull run and brainwash eachother so that people that are short/have puts should lose? I openly wanted to wage 100K to Tom Lee, put it on Video this past Sunday, because of FOMO he caused Friday [When we had a fierce rally] and I guess his answer was to block me.. Not a response, not listening to why we are headed lower, not a rebuttal, a block. I tweeted Scott Wapner yesterday, that if a guest comes on air and they are right, they get praise, more money, they get others bidding up their picks…. The same should go if they are wrong… I don’t hate Cathie Wood, I do think she is absolutely delusional and shouldn’t manage even a childs piggy bank money.. She trades in 1 direction only, and doesn’t pivot… Of course she knows more than a child, and I do believe she has studied some finance and economics, but she clearly has not studied the stock market and times of crashes/falls to see signs.. I tweeted her look up Janus20 of the 90s. She doesn’t block me, I call Ryan Cohen a fool on twitter, he doesn’t block me, I call Chamath a snake, nope….

I would like them to respond, tell me why I am wrong, if I am wrong, defend, not ignore.. Blocking is a childs move…

So as I said in a video a few weeks ago, do not assume because I am not known that the people you see on TV have more credentials than I do. I am disappointed in Tom Lee and I will tweet him todays briefing. I hope he unblocks me or at least responds… However, it wasn’t right for him to cause FOMO, it wasn’t right for Stephanie Link to pump BA and RBLX while I had puts, and we can see she was dead wrong, and it wasn’t right for Dan Ives to pump TSLA AMZN while I had puts…. We can all have opinions, but when we can influence millions, there should definitely be opinions publicly. In the long run we must be bulls! But every 12-14 years the bears come out and play and it isn’t fair to shut up the Bears, the ones that know when to be a bear and when to be a bull! Not the ones stuck with 1 view point!

Boy NVDA. They scored a 60 on surface. Beating top line and missing bottom. Remember that they lowered guidance twice. In a bear market, it isn’t enough to check surface. We have to check year over year numbers, even go back 2 years.. This is because we don’t want FOMO created to have us caught holding the bag. Many companies sand bag, [Lowering expectations to then beat numbers] and that is fantastic in a bull market, the people less experienced buy into it and cause fomo and rally… however in a bear market, if they don’t cause fomo and rally we have to dig deeper…We will soon know that NVDA was a pandemic jumping company.. and the stock was rewarded for it, much of NVDA business was crypto mining as well. We notice this seeing the amazing jump in sales in 2020 when Bitcoin took off, we entered the pandemic.. NVDA was the darling smashing bottom line by 20-30% and top line sales growth of 40-50%... Fast forward to 2 quarters ago when sales was flat, even negative 10%... earnings were down too… and then yesterday… FACTS!

Sales down 17%, earnings down 50% year over year.. And a scary as heck 60-70x PE ratio! Even worse, how can we be confident in the E in PE we see that is still falling! It still has a cult, many bag holders, but I think the fair value of 75 is to high. I based that 75 on 20-25x with earnings of 3-3.25, I think that is far overshooting… However, as we know a stock price and a company are 2 different things. TSLA is meme #1 and still holds a 182 stock price when fair value is 100… I may buy puts soon, I hope to close some more puts, I will need time because the Cult!

All I traded yesterday was out of my COIN puts. I made 600 with 2,200. I was up a little on BA puts.. I am not far off on SQSP puts, I will probably lose tomorrow on SAVA GME and NTNX puts.. So I will reset maybe next week. I still would have carried up to 20 puts, but I wanted to short on vicious rallies. I am said my DWAD UPST and AFRM puts didn’t fill. Those were 3 I tried hard Tuesday!

5 Trade ideas: Be careful!

AMEH – I didn’t place an order for a call and to my benefit it is even lower! Last report was excellent, I will definitely place a call if it falls hard again

BA – Sorry BA lovers, this company is a disaster with near 100 billion debt and no way to pay it. They will suffer dearly on all these rate hikes. I currently have January 155 strike puts for 5 dollars. I want to trade it and get more puts!

CELH – This is from my high fliers list, it has bounced off of 75, they make energy drinks. The earnings and growth were good, the valuation is insane. I was bidding on these puts maybe a couple of months ago, it was 110!

IRTC / FRPT – I didn’t want to have a lot more than 15 puts, I have 14 now, I tried hard on UPST DWAC and AFRM and those fell, so IRTC FRPT is back on the table

NVDA – Now that the earnings and guidance are out, I am confident that this ship is sinking, the company that is! Whether the stock follows, it has a cult! I am no longer confident in the 75 fair value, that is what I think of NVDA earnings! Now, NVDA is a real company and not going anywhere but I may see earnings at 2.50 and 25 x 2.50 is = near 63.. They may make more than 2.50 but near there.

The contents of this post are for information and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. ... By choosing to make a trade you are responsible for your own actions. Please do some due diligence. These are trades I am making and you can follow along. If you make a winning trade, I do not even expect a bravo or thanks but that’s fine, if you lose on a trade the same difference.. I do not even expect an upvote or reward… The Elite team is aware of the risks and volatility in the market.

Good luck everyone let’s make money. Share trades, ideas here during trading hours. Our main goal here is to make money so I hope we can help eachother. I will be in and out of here as well.