Monday, June 13, 2022

Ripple counsel slams SEC for trying to bulldoze and bankrupt crypto

“Like a hammer wanting everything to be a nail, the SEC is keeping everything murky so it can argue every crypto is a security,” claims Ripple general counsel Stu Alderoty.

Ripple general counsel Stu Alderoty has slammed the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for trying to “bully, bulldoze, and bankrupt” crypto innovation in the U.S. in the name of expanding its own regulatory territory.

Alderoty shared his views on June 13 amidst an ongoing lawsuit between Ripple and the regulator, which he says is part of the “SEC’s assault on all crypto in the U.S.” by treating every cryptocurrency as a security.

Ripple Labs has been embroiled in a legal battle with the SEC since December 2020, when the securities regulator filed a lawsuit alleging that Ripple executives had used Ripple (XRP) tokens to raise funds for the company starting in 2013, claiming it was an unregistered security at the time.

Ripple fought back, claiming that a 2018 speech delivered by Robert Hinman, then-Director of Corporation Finance for the SEC, had categorized Ether (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) and by-association, XRP, as a non-security due to being “sufficiently decentralized”.

Ripple argued that the speech was in contradiction with the SEC’s claims against Ripple and the XRP token, but the SEC countered the argument by claiming that the speech was the director’s own personal views and not the official view of the regulator. This nuance has been one of the most pivotal aspects of the Ripple vs SEC lawsuit.

During a Washington Post event on June 8, United States Senators Kirsten Gillibrand agreed that most cryptocurrencies would likely be classed as securities under the Howey Test, with the obvious exception of Bitcoin and Ether.

Rostin Behnam, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) took a slightly different view, saying that while there are “probably hundreds” of coins that replicate security coins, there are also many commodity coins, such as BTC and ETH that would be regulated by his commission.

The court battle between Ripple and SEC is expected to set a precedent for the treatment of cryptocurrencies, particularly altcoins under U.S. securities and commodities laws.

#blockchain #nonfungible #gamefi #metafi #defi #bitcoin #playtoearn #ripple


The death of Celsius is a good thing.

So during the bullrun of last year, decided to take advantage of the free btc promo for trying out the platform form for a few months. I thought wow this is cool. I knew in my mind they were shorting my btc but still had trust. It wasn't until the Canadian government started to pull some shady shit on the truckers during the protest that lead me to throwing all my bitcoin from Celsius to cold storage again.

After seeing recent events in Luna and Celsius. I see this as a good thing. The scams are being washed out and people are finally waking up to "not your keys, not your crypto".

Buy when your body and mind says to sell. Dollar cost average. Don't put more then you can afford to loose. Understand the reason why bitcoin was created, 2 countries have made it legal tender. Hodl. ❤.

Side note: I love all the crypto influencer that are like "I've met Alex, he's a really nice guy but this is wrong". No shit. He's a litteral con that will have his company remembered next to Bitconnect, Luna and Mt.Gox.

End goal in life is to accumulate as much bitcoin as possible. Some people have the same goal but they are willing to lie, trick and steal your bitcoin to add to their own.


How to Trade Asimi (ASIMI) in 2022: Step-By-Step Guide

Asimi, like most other cryptocurrencies, is a volatile asset whose value keeps fluctuating, influenced by such factors as the forces of demand and supply and crypto market performance. And you can make money by trading Asimi tokens today and leveraging these price fluctuations.

https://preview.redd.it/k79cm1mxqh591.png?width=3000&format=png&auto=webp&s=03f6a7def3b96697b6fa61c89c87d524674419fe

But how do you do that? How and where can you trade Asimi?

Well, this post helps you get started with Asimi trading by providing you with a step-by-step guide on how to buy and trade the online business-focused token. We also tell you about the best places to trade Asimi tokens today and share a few tips on how to choose the best crypto exchange for Asimi token trading.

But before we look at all these, let us understand what the Asimi token is and what it stands for.

What Is Asimi (ASIMI)?

Asimi is a recently launched cryptocurrency that focuses on online advertising. It is a crypto token that seeks to help millions of online businesses across the globe scale their operations and access new markets by driving traffic to their online platforms. It is also the utility token for the Asimi token economy that rewards individuals with free crypto when they the adverts placed by different online businesses.

The token launched in March and, according to data from CoinMarketCap, is already up to its introductory price by more than 130%. Investor interest in the token is on the rise, as evidenced by steadily rising trade volumes and has already been listed by a host of popular exchanges.

So, how do you make money leveraging Asimi’s price fluctuations?

Step-by-Step Guide for Trading Asimi (ASIMI)

Buying and selling Asimi doesn’t have to be complicated. After all, the online businesses focused token is already listed with several key exchanges, and they all have oversimplified the process of trading on their platforms.

Follow this guide that teaches you how to make money buying and selling ASIMI:

Step 1: Find a crypto exchange

Start by settling on a crypto exchange, preferably a fiat-to-crypto trading platform that lists Asimi tokens. Note that Asimi is a relatively new token and that the number of exchanges supporting its trade is expected to steadily rise over the coming months. Keep checking the Asimi website and the altcoin’s page on CoinMarektCap for an updated list of exchanges that list the token.

P.S: We will teach you how to vet exchanges and identify the best place to buy Asimi below.

Step 2: Register a crypto trader account

Create a trader account with the crypto trading platform. Most exchanges maintain straightforward client onboarding processes that take minutes. Here, most will only ask for such basic personal information as your name, country, residence, and phone number. A growing number will also demand that you verify your identity.

Step 3: Deposits funds

Once the trader account is approved, log in and deposit funds herein. The minimum deposit is often set by your preferred crypto exchange. You, on the other hand, get to determine the maximum investment. We recommend that you consider such factors as your risk tolerance levels, disposable income, crypto trading experience, investing strategy, and investing goals when deciding on the maximum investment amount.

Step 4: Buy Bitcoin, Tether, or any other ASIMI-paired crypto

As we mentioned above, Asimi is a relatively new token. This implies that most crypto trading platforms that list the altcoin are yet to introduce Asimi /fiat currency pairs. You, therefore, will need to first convert your fiat currency deposits to cryptocurrency that has fiat pairs, mostly BTC, USDT, BNB, or BUSD.

Step 5: Convert BTC, USDT paired crypto to Asimi

You will then need to convert this cryptocurrency to Asimi tokens. Some exchanges have a convenient currency conversion tool that lets you switch BTC, USDT, BNB, or BUSD for ASIMI tokens instantly. Others will require you to open a buy order for ASIMI using the crypto you just purchased.

Step 6: Sell Asimi

Trading Asimi isn’t complete without flipping the tokens for a profit. And selling ASIMI is equally easy and straightforward. Start by converting the ASIMI tokens back to the more popular cryptocurrency and then open a sell order for the said crypto.

How to Choose the Best Asimi (ASIMI) Trading Platform

There already are a few crypto trading platforms that list ASIMI tokens today, and this number is growing. Moving forward and as investor interest and brand awareness for the token rises, we expect a growing number of crypto exchanges to support ASIMI trading. And all these have different features, core strengths, and weaknesses.

How then do you settle on the best Asimi trading platform? What key features do you take into account when deciding on the best ASIMI trading platform.

Liquidity: Only register a crypto trading account with a deeply liquid exchange.

Ease of use: Your preferred ASIMI trading platform should also maintain a user-friendly trading platform. It should also support a diverse range of payment options.

Transaction fees: Your preferred ASIMI trading platform should also maintain competitively low crypto trading fees.

Reputation: Does the exchange maintain a supportive support team? Is it a regulated exchange? What are its past and present clients saying about the ease of trading ASIMI on the platform? Consider all these and only register with a trading platform of solid repute.

Security: Your preferred exchange should also provide you with a secure digital wallet to hold your ASIMI tokens. It should also have in place measures and safeguards to keep both your personal data and digital assets secure.

Where to Trade Asimi (ASIMI) in 2022

At the moment, you can trade ASIMI tokens on such popular crypto exchanges as XT.com, Waves Exchange, HitBTC exchange, and the P2PB2B trading platform.

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Asimi Token Website:
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Thinking out loud...are we alredy seeing MC's?

Got a question from someone today about margin calls and it made my brain go down a path. Sharing some free-flowing thought here.

//This is NOT DD and it is not a thesis...just thinking out loud//

Depending on how you want to count, the big blue chip and crytpo dip started as early as last Wednesday (6/8).

Before I get into what I'm thinking about, we need a quick refresh on how margin calls work. I used to trade on margin (currently have a cash only account and have turned off share lending). I've also written more deeply about margins elsewhere if you want to find that.

When you're margin called you can cover by depositing cash or selling off enough positions to reduce the amount of your portfolio which is covered by debt (margin). You're getting back to a level of leverage your broker will accept.

Let's say you're a big investor with a lot of long and short positions. And say you're leveraged and get a margin call, but you're short on cash (side note...remember adam's "cash is king" tweet? We'll get back to that in a minute). Since you don't have cash, to meet your margin call, you have to sell off some positions. If you close out shorts, you're going to have to "buy to cover". You had previously processed the sale ("Sell short") and borrowed shares to do so. When you sold it short, you collected cash from the sale. Closing a short to cover a margin call isn't going to work for you - it's going to force you to buy back which you ALSO need cash for. And here's the thing - you're greedy and you've been building your empire with leverage. This means you took the cash from the short sale and already invested it somewhere else. So you REALLY don't have cash.

With the margin call, your problem is, if you don't cover the call, the broker will start auto-closing enough of your positions until you've covered. So what do you do? You start selling your longs (not your shorts). Now let's look at some market events...

Take a look at a few tickers (pics posted at end of post...). Look at all of those and what do you see? SPY, Meta, Goog, Nke, Bitcoin, Aaple, Amzn, Msft, what do those all have in common? They're all blue chip investments. Safe bets with a LOT of stored value from the past decade-plus bull run. What else do you see in all of them? They ALL started dipping 6/8-6/9.

Someone asked me, "if they got margin called last Friday, when would we see it?" T+2 is the usual answer, but nothing seems to work normally these days. I looked at all those and my gut reaction was "it's already been happening." First they sold blue chips, then they sold bitcoin. My (non dd) response to all this: They're harvesting cash to cover their leveraged position and avoid auto-closing. This is also bullish for AMC IMO but hold that thought.

The counter-point would be: This is a global event, and driven by inflation. The selloffs were fear based, not margin driven. Sure, that's probably partially true. Macros, pandemic hangover, war, supply chain issues, inflation, are ALL ingredients in the soup. But the logical question is... why the sudden, precipitous drop? We've all known about ALL those issues a long time. Why so sharp and why now?

Consider one more ingredient: AMC has seen about 70 MILLION shares borrowed over the last month and (until today) had only dipped 9 cents in that time. All while the cost to borrow spiked significantly. That's also a drain on your cash as it starts getting pretty expensive to maintain (and to keep opening new) short positions.

Look at the timeline: 6/4, Adam says "cash is king", 6/8, just a few days later, we see the beginnings of some very sharp drops. It's my gut opinion (reminder not DD) margin calls have been ongoing and shorty has been selling off blue chips and crypto in a desperate push to keep liquid. This has always been the thesis and, I believe, we may be seeing it play out.

The hope is, of course, one of three (or all 3) events is next:

1.) Shorty can't sell make enough of their margin calls and starts getting auto-closed (including covering some short positions). Consider as shorty sells their longs, the remaining shares of those tickers are now worth less and cover even less margin. It becomes a self perpetuating problem until the call can't be covered (there's a dead end at the end of this road where they can't maintain margins and their positions get closed..."liquidated")

2.) Shorty uses some of the cash from selloffs to close out shorts (especially as CTB keeps pressing on them harder and harder).

3.) A positive catalyst for AMC (continued improving fundamentals, big whales piling on, etc...) makes shorty's position untenable (mark-to-market losses would add pressure to margins by flipping shorty under water on short positions which are also part of their leverage rn.

Check out the pics below to see what I'm talking about and keep track of the broader market swirling around AMC. I feel incredibly bullish rn and it's still going to take patience. Buy and hodl uses time as a lever on our side. If I'm right, we are already in the throes of shorty losing the liquidity they need to continue their corrupt fight.

Let's go!

https://preview.redd.it/eo31b3rvrg591.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=76d4a702df533b9c02a37644a21be58f74aa22a9

https://preview.redd.it/56n8ysrvrg591.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=44893d8313d2dec9af149b0716d076d00c210f39

https://preview.redd.it/8av3ivrvrg591.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eef2057b3ea5bc4040bed03c8498c8eb322e93f4

https://preview.redd.it/r235wcrvrg591.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=beac80cf26e78448f7e9ee9e75ce84fe5633baa6

https://preview.redd.it/oa08hervrg591.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f733b084fcc774d57fdab1cd61b222bb36fe7eb2

https://preview.redd.it/44c1yervrg591.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=491125d4756e839d183911fd5aec58fc60042fd7

https://preview.redd.it/ijzxz2rvrg591.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=add6fa420f48d371098fcce025c2e9bdc08d431d

https://preview.redd.it/2y33y5rvrg591.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4f0ddbb3c1c440485209fe0a1ff89812533a5040


𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗰𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁-𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀; 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗵𝗮𝗶 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻; 𝗪𝗧𝗢 𝘄𝗼𝗯𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲; 𝗴𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗱𝗿𝗼𝗽𝘀 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲

News that is still dominated by American [high] inflation and Chinese [low] demand. Everything now depends on American employment levels. As long as they stay high (for them), then the world may get a softer landing than otherwise. But the Chinese situation isn't helping. Trouble in both the #1 and #2 economies in the world has ripple impacts globally. Together they account for more than 42% of the world's economic activity.

Today's financial markets are acting like a herd stampede, one that is changing direction. No-one seems to want to believe the 2022 direction so far is the right way.

Equity prices are diving. Bond yields are jumping (bond prices are sinking). And the US dollar is rising fast. Commodity currencies are being devalued. It is another sharp re-rating lower, the fifth such event in 2022 alone.

Only once (in the second half of March) has their been a recovery from one of these shifts lower. They are becoming much more frequent, and that tells you something important. In 2021 there was only one of these selloffs. In 2020, there was only the sharp pandemic selloff.

https://preview.redd.it/7r8j3iyw6g591.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=570bc377a45dd9d0f3ee5505977c25cf55bf9553

In both 2020 and 2021 there was a full recovery pushing equity prices to the record highs that ended at the end of December 2021. The track has been down from there, in these increasing selloff events.

Since the market high right at the start of 2022, the S&P500 has fallen more than -20%, so it is now a bear market for equities.

And many now expect the main rate curves to invert soon.

Further, commodity prices are almost all falling today.

Last week markets were confident the US Fed will raise its policy rate by +50 bps at their next meeting on Thursday. Yesterday, that expectations went up to +75 bps. Today, markets seem to be expecting a reasonable change a +100 bps hike is coming. This is "fluid" as they say, or others may say "panicky".

Meanwhile, in their large and regular survey, the New York Fed's consumer expectations report showed that inflation expectations over the year ahead rose in May, but only back to the +6.6% level they were at in March.

They were last at this level in June 2013. Those surveyed thought their incomes would rise only +3% in a year, but they seemed unusually bullish about their spending, saying this would rise by +9%.

At the same time, they expect access to consumer debt to get harder. Something has to give, because the overall sense of these expectations hardly makes a lot of sense in the current economic climate.

In China, street protests broke out in Shanghai over the rolling lockdowns. They were relatively small because the risks for doing so are so high, but that they happened at all reveals the extreme pressure on small merchants.

In Australia, their energy regulator is raising its warnings and has introduced price caps and ordered generators to keep running, as it signals that parts of Queensland face possible blackouts as early as today.

Meanwhile, world trade in services is facing a huge threat. At the World Trade Organisation summit of 120 ministers in Geneva, India, Indonesia and South Africa are refusing to renew a two-year “moratorium” that bans the WTO’s 164 member countries from imposing customs duties on ecommerce.

The fear is that a round of taxes are coming for global ecommerce. The inflationary impact would be huge.

The UST 10yr yield will start today up a remarkable +24 bps from this time yesterday at 3.41%. Rate curves are flattening with mid maturities rising faster than long. The UST 2-10 rate curve is marginally flatter at +9 bps and their 1-5 curve is much flatter at +65 bps.

Their 30 day-10yr curve is steeper however at +222 bps. The Australian ten year bond is up sharply at 3.93% and a +16 bps jump. The China Govt ten year bond is little-changed at 2.82%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today at 4.04%, a rise of +13 bps from this time yesterday. This is an almost 7-year high.

Equity markets are re-rating lower sharply. In New York, the S&P500 is down -3.1% in Monday afternoon trade. Overnight, European markets fell more than -2.5%, except London which was down -1.5%.

Tokyo ended yesterday down -3.0%, Hong Kong was down -3.4%, and Shanghai was down -0.9%. The ASX200 ended down -1.3% which the NZX50 ended down -1.9% to start the week.

The price of gold is down a sharpish -US$43 in New York, now at US$1829/oz, knocked around by the strong US dollar.

But oil prices are little-changed from this time yesterday, still at just under US$118.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$120.50/bbl. However, because it is holding its price in US dollars, it is an effective rise for most other buyers.

The Kiwi dollar will open today sharply lower at just on 62.8 USc and a -¾c retreat from this time yesterday. Since the start of June that is now a -3.9% devaluation. Since the start of the year it is an -8% devaluation. The Australian dollar is being hit slightly harder and we are a little firmer at 90.4 AUc.

Against the euro we are down at 60.1 euro cents and now at month-ago levels. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 70.8, and down another -50 bps since this time yesterday. But that is only at a level we were last at on May 19, 2022. So it really is all about the outsized gains by the greenback rather than anything to do with the NZD.

The bitcoin price has fallen by a remarkable -17% from this time yesterday and is now at just US$23,163. And it has been a very tough ride down, at one point in between it got as low as US$22,602.

Volatility over the past 24 hours has been unprecedented at +/- 12%. It is now below NZ$40,000 for the first time in 18 months, and it is well below. Not helping was that a major crypto network froze withdrawals and transfers, causing widespread alarm in these markets.

Source: Interest .co .nz


New systemic risks in the cryptocurrency markets and how they might play out in a panic

This started as a comment i posted last night on another thread in r/Buttcoin. Thought it was better for CryptoReality so i cleaned it up slightly and tried to post it there but then I got swarmed/reported by some crypto bros chatting me to tell me "I'm a moron" and presumably reporting the post to Reddit... and the auto mod kicked in...

so I'm posting it here because this Celsius implosion is exactly the scenario that made me think there's a decent chance cryptomania won't survive the weekend. kind of too relevant to leave in mod limbo and mods don't seem to be responsive on r/CryptoReality.

For those who saw the original comment, the only major difference from my comment is just more info on Michael Saylor and MSTR.

----

"New" at least compared to the 2018 crypto crash. i'm compiling some of my posts on other threads because i think we are seeing the system start to seriously wobble... and i strongly suspect it will topple eventually.

"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."

- Charles MacKay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds

  1. 23% of americans own or have owned crypto already. 64% of americans have basically no assets other than their house. i suspect (but do not know for sure) that the picture is similar in europe and Japan, the other major pools of world capital. everyone i know under 30 thinks this shit is a total scam (i've been polling informally). in other words: there is no one left to pump money into the ponzi. (as an aside, i like nick weaver's formulation that crypto is a "self-assembled ponzi")
  2. as people flee shitcoins they are buying bitcoin in what they perceive to be a "flight to quality" - the same reason US Treasuries and gold go up during market crashes. have a look at the shitcoin market; it's getting hammered. everything down 10-30% in 24 hours. it is reasonable to assume that a lot of the buying power that could be pushing up bitcoin is probably pouring into BTC/ETH already from the shitcoin market liquidations. the fact that even with that upward pressure on the price of BTC and ETH (AKA "quality"... lol) we are still seeing this much of a slide means that the selling pressure must be... intense. now imagine what happens when that support ends because the shitcoin capital has been totally drained out of shitcoins and into BTC/ETH (at least whatever shitcoin capital wasn't just flat out stolen by the scammers who issued the shitcoins) ... all you will be left with is the collusion of the whales trying to keep the price up. sure there will be a bunch of financial suicide bombers HODLers shouting "YOLO" as they ride the bomb all the way to the ground, but that's an insubstantial amount of capital now that they've been rekt by tesla, shitcoins, gamestop, and whatever other bad bets these market actors seem to determine to make (and with leverage!)
  3. at least some of the whales rats are colluding to prop up the price. they are already obviously doing this - have you looked at a graph of the price of BTC for the last 30 days recently? i've never seen a chart so obviously flat on the bottom. while price manipulation is not exactly anything new to the crypto markets - Nasdaq reported on an analysis that claimed north of 90% of the trades reported by the exchanges are fake as recently as Dec. 2021. what is new is that there are some folks who have a lot riding on the price of BTC not hitting certain benchmarks (more on that later). sadly for the whales rats no one in the world is rich enough to prop up a $500B market in freefall. every minute this continues the whales are burning actual capital (the so-called demonic "fiat" us mere mortals use to buy our Chipotle). i've tried to build some financial models of their burn rate but given the uncertainties i don't want to claim i have a good answer... but there is definitely a burn rate, so the famous economics quote "Things that cannot go on forever, will stop" applies. as a more concrete data point, consider that on Friday the S&P was down -2.9% but BTC, a highly correlated but far more speculative asset, only moved -3.3%. someone had to absorb that selling pressure. i suspect eventually one of whales rats will look at his dwindling pile of actual fiat currency and realize that the first whale rat to the exit door gets to keep the billions and the rest will be left holding the bag. being a whale rat, he (trust me on the pronoun) will make a break for it. when that happens we will see total collapse of the price because, being whales rats, they will all turn on each other in a desperate scramble for a rapidly shrinking exit door.
  4. worth mentioning that you can't put any money in an actual bank - like real, fiat money you can pay rent and buy lambos with - outside of banking hours. for instance right now, because it's the weekend, all these magic beans are trapped in the magic bean factory... and at least some corner of the bean factory is kind of on fire. a few weeks ago when i got serious about paying attention to this crypto monstrosity i was talking to a fund manager about the situation... he pointed out something i would not have thought of: if the collapse starts on the weekend it would dramatically accelerate the ascent to a state of total panic. even if it's not gonna happen this weekend, this is a systemic risk that 24/7 trading w/out the kind of circuit breakers used in NYSE/Nasdaq will continue to create.
  5. Celsius has collapsed (even if they haven't admitted it yet). That's just the first domino. Beyond the current outflows, We already know at a bare minimum a) Celsius lost 35,000 ETH to a hack and b) they lied to their customers about it. Redditors are even raising the alarm in r/Bitcoin (AKA "The Church of the Financial Suicide Bomber HODLer"). The rise of crypto equivalents of the kind of financial derivatives that almost blew up the world economy in 2008 means that the cryptocurrencies are all deeply interlinked in a way they were not in 2018's crash, so Celsius collapsing will start a domino effect.the most important event in the domino run will be when a medium sized exchange closes its doors, takes the money, and runs, leaving even the people who thought they had safely exited by turning their BTC magic beans into USDT or USDC magic beans with absolutely nothing. once other crypto "investors" hear about that... panic.
  6. there is a parallel situation with stETH and ETH de-pegging. w/out going into the grimy details stETH is a magic bean box that contains another magic bean called ethereum. you cannot open the magic stETH box for 1-2 years. stETH is supposed to be worth 1 ETH but... it's not. stETH looks basically like a futures contract, so it's worth what the market perceives the value of the ETH in the box will be 1-2 years from now and... stETH is currently trading at 95% of an ETH. Why? because the whales dumped all their stETH on retail bagholders in the last 72 hours. which tells you all you need to know about what some of the whales think about the future price of ETH... (as far as the morality of dumping your soon to be illiquid assets on retail suckers, see my comments about rat whales in #3). incidentally this stETH situation was one of the top 3 stories on bloomberg yesterday. literally every money manager in the world now knows about "staked eth". what a waste of brain space.
  7. at some point tether will stop redemptions because tether is in the running for the largest financial fraud in the history of our great species. at that point: ka-boom. you can't blow a $60B hole in a $1.3T market and expect that market to survive... but it's even worse than that, because 70% of all crypto trades are done with tether's imaginary tetherbeans. /u/peerchemist did an excellent blow by blow writeup of how that might play out on medium so i won't go into the details, but the tl;dr is that w/out tether liquidity will vanish, and when liqudity vanishes and there are literally no buyers, prices collapse and panic sets in.
  8. at some point MicroStrategies will have to hand over several billion in BTC to their bondholders, who will liquidate it. i have read several different takes on what that price point is. here's one from MSTR itself. given that Michael Saylor probably only escaped being jailed for financial fraud in the dotcom crash because 9/11 changed the priorities of regulators, you have to take his numbers with at least a grain of salt. personally i would use a whole shakerful, maybe more. Other journalists have reported trigger prices of BTC $13K and $21K. Wherever the price is, the most important part is that there is now a price at which massive liquidation will be forced by bondholders bearing contracts that enforceable in the real world. This kind of systemic risk is new to Bitcoin.