In a Cointelegraph Twitter Space with Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards, the analyst mentioned that excitement over the Ethereum Merge and its bullish price action had somewhat been holding up hope across the market. Now that the event has come and gone, the crypto market has been selling off, with Bitcoin’s (BTC) price trading below $20,000 and Ether’s (ETH) under $1,500.
Saturday, September 17, 2022
Daily TA by Tritador 17th of September
September 17. Bitcoin's just barely above 20k. I keep buying it, but if you're not a bitcoin person and you spend a lot of time on crypto parts of the internet, you've probably noticed that people outside of the IBC are starting to notice the IBC. Don't sleep on Atom.
GKEY is sitting at 876 currently and continues to function more as Gelotto's farm/reward coin than a scarce tool for the Grand Prize event. Honestly, this is pretty reasonable behavior for traders. The Grand Prize event is still over a year away. I don't see any reason for this trend to stop unless the GKEY price falls low enough that people don't care to keep farming and selling it. I'm expecting a continued downtrend that becomes much steeper once GKEY airdrops are handed out this month, until the price hits a point where traders no longer think it's worth the risk of being exposed in Gelotto's liquidity pools. At that point we'll probably see a dip in the GLTO price about two weeks later after the traders unbond and cash out. Then, we'll know the bottom for GKEY.
GLTO continues to in the 0.0044 to 0.0049 price range, being pulled around mostly by the price of OSMO, and since IBC coins seem to be on the way up, this is also slowly increasing the USD price of GLTO. Eventually, the opposite of the GKEY situation above should happen here: The USD price of GLTO will reach a local top, either through buying or the rising OSMO price, where it's attractive to someone to sell, and the price goes back down to repeat the process until eventually, GLTO runs out of buyers and the price stays down, or GLTO runs out of eager sellers and the price goes higher to find the next attractive selling point.
Crypto prices aside, the Gelotto platform continues to run successful lottery games (that are still officially in a testing phase, though players are undeterred), with a slew of lottery updates to add flexibility to the games coming out soon, in preparation for the official platform launch later this month.
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Possible Market Decline in Ethereum Post-Merge
Despite Ethereum's significant Merge event, a traditional bearish reversal pattern predicts trouble for the ETH/BTC pair in the future.
Since May 2021, the weekly chart of Ether (ETH), the native token of Ethereum, has been creating an inverted cup-and-handle pattern, which suggests a likely collapse versus Bitcoin (BTC).
A bearish reversal pattern called an inverse cup-and-handle is marked by decreasing trade volume. It usually ends when the price crosses below its support line, and the decline toward the level is as long as the distance between the top of the cup and the support line.
Applying the theoretical definition to the weekly chart of ETH/BTC identifies 0.03 BTC as the next negative target, representing a loss of around 55% from the price on September 16.
Alternatively, the ETH/BTC combination may yet result in significant profits in the years to come. Since January 2018, the ETH/BTC pair has been depicting a probable cup-and-handle pattern on the weekly log chart. In other words, a rise of more than 520% from the present price levels, or toward 0.5 BTC in 2023, is possible.
Cup-and-handles are bullish reversal patterns, as opposed to their inverse counterpart noted above, with their upward goals situated at levels equal to their maximum height when measured from their breakout point.
The resistance level of the pattern, 0.08 BTC, is currently being tested by the pair. As of right now, it has been moving lower inside the handle range and is about to retrace toward its lower trendline, which is located around roughly 0.05 BTC, after testing the upper trendline as resistance this week.
The possibility of Ethereum surpassing Bitcoin in terms of market valuation has been nicknamed "the flippening."
According to Joshua Lim, head of derivatives at Genesis Trading, Ethereum is vying with Bitcoin to become the so-called "inflation hedge." Lim referenced Ethereum's August 2021 EIP-1559 release, which added a fee-burning mechanism to its system.
Bitcoin Monthly Stats: Cost Basis, Long-Term Holders, And The Cyclical Bottom
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In this month’s The Bitcoin Monthly, ARK Invest focused on Ethereum and the Merge. As a side dish, they did publish some premium and review-worthy stats that we’re about to cover. Never mind the market, the Bitcoin network keeps producing block after block regardless. The stats that this whole activity produces can be critical in understanding the market, though.
That’s where ARK Invest’s The Bitcoin Monthly comes in. The publication defines itself as “an “earnings report” that details on-chain activity and showcases the openness, transparency, and accessibility of blockchain data.” So, the data we’re about to cover is The Bitcoin Monthly’s reason to be.
The Bitcoin Monthly: 200-Week Moving Average And Investor Cost Basis - “After closing above its 200-week moving average in July,1 bitcoin’s price reversed and slipped below it in August. Currently at $22,680, the 200-week moving average now seems to be resistance.”
The center couldn’t hold. The price’s recovery was short-lived. Markets are red across the board and bitcoin is no exception. At the time of writing, bitcoin trades at $19,874. For those keeping score, that’s just below last cycle’s all-time high of $20K. Something that shouldn’t happen, but a few degrees of error are always understandable.
- “Bitcoin currently trades above investor cost basis at $19,360, its strongest on-chain support level (…) Importantly, throughout bitcoin’s history, trading at investor price usually marks a bottoming process.”
Times are tough, but bitcoin still trades above investor cost basis. The Bitcoin Monthly clarifies, “Investor price is calculated by subtracting the cost basis of miners from the general cost basis of the market.” As we see it, The Bitcoin Monthly is calling the bottom. They didn’t say it in those exact words, but they certainly insinuated it.
Is the bottom really in, though?
BTC price chart for 09/17/2022 on Gemini | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com The Bitcoin Monthly: Short-Term Holder Vs. Long-Term Holder - “The short-term-holder (STH) cost basis is approaching its longterm-holder (LTH) cost basis ––an event that has marked cyclical bottoms in the past. (…) Since the end of July, the difference between short- and long-term holders’ cost basis has shrunk from $5,840 to $2,500”
The Bitcoin Monthly sees it as a sign that “the market typically is capitulating and shifting back to long-term participation.” Bitcoin’s consolidation process might be ending soon. We could stay for a while in the bottom area, though. That has happened before. The point is, all of the indicators The Bitcoin Monthly highlighted this month point in the same direction. To the bottom.
- “The supply held by long-term bitcoin holders is 34,500 coins away from reaching 13.55 million– its all-time high. Long-term-holder supply constitutes 70.6% of total outstanding supply.
This one is the most bullish of all the featured stats. To clarify, coins that haven’t moved in 155 days or more qualify as “long-term holder supply.” The tourists and the people with high hopes left a long time ago. And the lion’s share of the bitcoin supply is now in the true believers’ possession. A remarkable situation that doesn’t get mentioned enough.
About The Ethereum Merge - “In August, ether outperformed bitcoin by 7.6% (…) Historically, ether has outperformed bitcoin during “riskon” bull markets and underperformed during “risk-off” bear markets.”
The merge’s effects affected the market throughout the whole narrative. Even though we’re in a “risk-off bear market,” ETH took over and lead the market for a while there. They accomplished the mythical feat and… the market turned on them. After what seemed like mission accomplished, ETH’s price started to bleed.
Hidden behind a secret door, that’s what The Bitcoin Monthly contained.
Featured Image by Maxim Hopman on Unsplash | Charts by TradingView
Chainlink (LINK) Performs Well Amidst Market Turning To Red
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Price fluctuations are a daily occurrence in the crypto markets now. Since the fight against inflation began, the overall financial markets have tanked. Nowadays, asset prices swing without warning, and the continuing crypto winter only heightened the volatility.
The recent event expected to boost market recovery has been completed. Ethereum is now operating on a proof-of-stake mechanism as planned. But after the successful launch, crypto asset prices dipped, and losses spilled over to the next 24 hours.
Related Reading: Valkyrie Crypto Trusts Gather Nearly $74 Million In Funding Amid Bear Market
Currently, almost all the assets are red in price movements. The leading crypto Bitcoin has lost 2.95% in 24 hours. Ethereum, the center of attention during this period, has also lost 1.70% in 24 hours and 15.73% in 7 days.
But not all hope is lost. Some cryptocurrencies are rallying impressively, and the top leader in this category is Chainlink LINK.
Chainlink LINK Gains 9.03% Amid Market Pullback Chainlink LINK is one of the cryptocurrencies currently gaining each hour on September 16. As of the time of writing, the LINK price stands at $7.71, representing an 8.19% gain in 24 hours. The price movement on September 16 has been very encouraging. LINK recorded some dips in its 24 hours trading, but not the red lines. The coin saw an intraday high of $7.759 and an intraday low of $7.4948. The next low point during the day was a dip to $7.60 before regaining its upward momentum.
If the price continues upwards, LINK might grow considerably higher before the market closes. This gain is a welcome development for the crypto as its 7 days price growth sits at 2.23%.
LINK’s price is currently trading above $7.5. | Source: LINKUSD price chart from TradingView.com What Could Be Pushing Chainlink Post-Merge Chainlink has proven useful in the crypto space. The network has eliminated the struggle with oracles in smart contracts. It created a decentralized pool of oracles to provide real-time, accurate information for on-chain transactions. Smart contracts using Chainlink oracles can operate with reliable information.
A few months back, an analyst Austin Arnold, a crypto analyst, addressed some key factors capable of pushing a crypto project’s value. He aimed to help his 1.24 million YouTube subscribers pick the right crypto to invest in during the raging bearish trend.
The analysts picked four popular projects, of which Chainlink LINK was the first. According to Arnold, five factors will drive LINK’s future growth after the crypto winter.
The first is the right team with capable skills in controlling the network. Other factors include adequate funding, strategic partnerships, solutions for real-life problems in blockchains, and network positioning in verticals.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Selling Pressure Continues As BTC Dips Under $20k
Arnold pointed out that the Chainlink network has these five characteristics. He noted how the Oracle network had improved BNB Chain BNB and Polygon MATIC, showing developers’ adoption.
Even during the crypto winter bloodbath in the market, Chainlink LINK maintained its price range between $6+ and $8+. It recorded a spike to $9.28 on June 10 but later dipped to $8.05. The lowest price LINK recorded between May to September 16 was $5.97 on July 13 before bouncing back to $6.18 the next day.
Featured image from Pixabay and chart from TradingView.com
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