Wednesday, June 22, 2022

By The Numbers: The Worst Bitcoin Bear Markets Ever

https://ifttt.com/images/no\_image\_card.png

Bitcoin is now officially in another bear market after the crash that rocked the market last week. After falling more than 70% from its all-time high, investors across the space had started to retreat from the digital asset due to this new price trend. However, trends like these are not new for bitcoin. Although the present market may seem worse than previous ones due to it still ongoing, there have been some brutal bear markets in the past.

A Blast From The Past It can often be helpful to take a look at the previous market cycles for bitcoin to see that this is nothing out of the ordinary. Yes, the bull and bear trends of this market have deviated from what has been recorded in history but it still remains very similar to what has been recorded in the past.

For bitcoin, the alternation between bear and bull markets has always been part of the experience. It has been through several of these boom-bust cycles in its 13 years in existence and it is not expected to change anytime soon.

Related Reading | Over $250 Million In Liquidations As Bitcoin Recovers Above $20,000

Bitcoin has so far lost about 73% from its most recent cycle peak but it is not the first time that something like this is happening. Looking back to the November 2013 market shows that bitcoin had actually continued to decline until it finally ended its 407-day losing streak with a bottom at 85% of its all-time high value. This had marked the end of that stretched-out bull market.

For those in the market, the 2017 bull-bear cycle is fresher in their minds compared to 2013. However, like in 2013, the drawdown was just as brutal, although lasting a shorter time. What had lasted for approximately a year had ended with poor performance of an 84% bottom. 

BTC bear markets are always brutal | Source: Arcane Research Since the digital asset continues to maintain this trend closely, it is expected that the drawdown will continue. Going by the previous two examples, one can easily draw a conclusion that a historical movement will see bitcoin bottom out in the mid -80s. Thus, the bottom is most likely not in and the market is likely to see BTC at $11,000 before the expected market bottom in late 2022.

Will Bitcoin Follow? While looking at previous movements can help point a direction where the price of bitcoin might end up, there are always new information and events that can heavily impact it. For one, the macroeconomic atmosphere has been a big player in the movement of the digital asset in recent terms. As fears around inflation, fed rate hikes, and less liquidity circle the market, bitcoin had been directly impacted by this.

BTC enters bear market | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com This has led to a more intertwined market when it comes to bitcoin and the broader financial markets. As the cryptocurrency space grows larger, it is experiencing greater implications from the Fed decisions, stock market performance, U.S. elections, and crypto regulations that have been ramping up.

Related Reading | Cardano Vasil Hard Fork Launch Date Set, Time To Buy The News?

Nevertheless, the long-term play for bitcoin remains the best bet. As emotions run high, bitcoin veterans take to accumulating and hibernating while waiting for winter to pass. If history is anything to point to, by the next bull market, the price of bitcoin could reach as high as $200,000.

Featured image from Forbes, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com Follow Best Owie on Twitter for market insights, updates, and the occasional funny tweet…


𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗴𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀; 𝗨𝗦 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲; 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗳𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀; 𝗴𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝘂𝗽 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻; 𝗡𝗭$𝟭 = 𝟲𝟯 𝗨𝗦𝗰

In the US, Fed Chairman Powell is giving testimony to Congress today and tomorrow, and today acknowledged that a soft landing for the giant American economy will be "challenging" and he also acknowledged that a recession is a real possibility there.

That dose of realism has put a huge damper on financial markets today, but Wall Street is actually up, presumably on the basis that his comments on the outlook weren't worse.

American mortgage applications rose again last week, a second successive weekly gain after a long period of declines. They also reported that the average 30 year mortgage rate is almost touching 6% there. It was just 3% at the beginning of 2022.

In more positive news the US retail Redbook index shook off its prior week slowdown to return to its 'normal' strong recent year-on-year gain, well above what can be accounted for in inflation.

https://preview.redd.it/tyo5utzy19791.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5cb36df89f2f93e4204dfc0d5366174d7da0b103

There was a US Treasury bond auctions earlier today. The 20yr one was very well supported and came in with a median yield of 3.41% compared to 3.22% at the prior event a month ago.

In China, their southern manufacturing hub in Guangdong raised its flood warning to the highest level due to the worst rains in decades in the Pearl River basin, spurring more evacuations and threatening further supply chain disruptions in an economy reeling from Covid-related lockdowns.

And pressure, already extreme, is still rising on the Chinese property development sector.

Sales have been very weak, with most of their large listed companies reporting they are only achieving less than 30% of their sales targets, and that is even after more than 200 cities have rolled out policy measures to support the struggling housing market. Nothing authorities are doing there is helping yet.

That is having a direct impact on commodity prices, like copper and iron ore.

The UST 10yr yield starts today down -8 bps at 3.15%. The UST 2-10 rate curve is marginally steeper at +9 bps and their 1-5 curve is flatter at +41 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is however steeper at +215 bps.

The Australian ten year bond is down a very sharp -31 bps at 3.81%, an eye-opening move reflected across all durations. The China Govt ten year bond is -1 bp lower at 2.80%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today -6 bps lower at 4.17%.

On Wall Street, the S&P500 is up +0.9% in its Wednesday session so far. Overnight in Europe, yesterday's positive mood evaporated with markets down about -0.8%.

Tokyo closed yesterday down -0.4%, Hong Kong was down a very sharp -2.6%, and Shanghai closed down -1.2%. The ASX200 ended its Wednesday session down -0.2% which was matched by the NZX50.

The price of gold is now at US$1841/oz in New York and up +US$5.

And oil prices are -US$1.50/bbl lower from this time yesterday at just under US$107/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$110/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar will open today at just under 63 USc and -20 bps softer than this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we soft 90.7 AUc.

Against the euro we are much lower at 59.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 70.8, and down -50 bps from this time yesterday.

The bitcoin price has moved up from this time yesterday and is now at US$20,235 and up +1.9%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high again at +/- 3.6%.

Source: Interest .co .nz


MARKET REPORT: 06/22/2022

REGULAR "LATEST MARKET CRASH" EDITION

Refresh often for updates, (or not). :)

TS: 10:00am (ish) pdt (UTC +7)

=============================> THOUGHT$ FOR THE DAY <=============================

Today, and every day now, etc.

:)

The Trigger Action Needs To Be Executed Most Gracefully

>>>I live & trade to music 24/7, presently playing: John Williams-"el diablo suelto guitar of venezuela 2003". :)

1.0 HOW I AM TRADING THIS MARKET:

US Markets are up weakly on what looks to be the end of the last bear bounce-and crypto chopping sideways to down along with it. I am looking for a fold back today.

I am scalping in both directions, size 5 unless noted otherwise. Trade type is large position and short parry (targeted range capture), because the market is tight as it scrapes ever down on average after fresh annual lows-to sequentially set new 12 month (and beyond) lows. Today we are just under the shark line (best shorting op), so shorts need to be careful, and taken near top of trend channels to be "safe".

Dry Powder: 50%

(the large reserve is for capture of big pump/dump moves like FIL yesterday, and sequential tranche taking when early scalps are too early)

Long/Short* Ratio (changes often!): 50***/50***

Scalp Length: short!

2.0 THIS I BELIEVE AT PRESENT (my general market outlook):

We are in a Bear (read: 'risk off' oriented) Market, and will be for much of 2022. The word "recession" is broadcast quite a bit now . . . and Crypto has never been in a big one of those-it's new ground for such risk on assets.

This is the third material crash since April 7, 2022. (Take the hint.)

My position shift in early January has been proven the ticket indeed. And it is NOT over.

Prices are likely to fall further net-before they rise again, net.

"Net" to me is in the 1 month range minimum, unless some form of material momentous rally gets underway, which I do not see at this point prior to, well, last year's Skynet Rhyme-A-Roni. :)

Market environs like this separate the brownies from the gurlyscouts, as they are very hard to navigate successfully-CONSISTENTLY.

Trending markets are easy to call, (relatively speaking). Chaos markets (as here), where direction and outcome is ever in serious (and often violent) question, are much harder to assess....and so require a tad (lot!!!) more ooompah to work well. ;)

No change to the process: buy at DDT TA Support, sell into DDT TA OHR-period.......rinse and repeat, (for now). Ditto the reverse for shorting. The process is just that simple....albeit the market is definitely not. ;) The Challenge here is the new data profiles DDT is drawn from are all very new, or >1yr old. That creates a data vacuum challenge. When that environ is encountered, one has to mostly rely on Stochs, Volume, MAs, and very short term patterns. Never a dull moment in a highly speculative market that can't/won't make up its risk on/risk off mind, amidst heavy duty manipulation by the big ugly players, (Chinese Exchange Whaler$ et etc).

3.0 CRYPTO INDEX>DCI30:

Today (yesterday was -61.6%, we saw dips pushing to -70% zone over the last weekend)

The DCI30 DDT Crypto Index was begun 04/07/2022 for traders who seek reliable transparency, details here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/tyoa3m/ddt_crypto_index_creation_introducing_the_dci30/

4.0 BROADER MARKETS: choppy up, after negative futures night-volume \meh**

USA Today

5.0 COIN CORRELATIONS: strong initially at bell open-then inconsistent

Check Before Using-lots of inconsistency

6.0 $ENTIMENTATORS:

Chopping Sideways near the bottom of range

7.0 UPDATES & RANDOM FEATURES (if any) FOLLOW . . . Good Luck Today! :)

Hahahaha, been at this for 20 yrs now sonny boy. :)

Note: you can't watch a video and learn the required ropes, it is not even remotely that simple. Anything worth doing, is worth doing well. Very well. :)

Backwards thinking-BTC is a reflection-not a reason. A result of bad bubble bursting.

Yeah-that its bottom is not in haha.

Bitcoin is not the aggregate of anything, it is but a perfect example of Fomo Tulip Mania.

Same old same old.

The sex appeal is "gone", the lie exposed, and I am guessing that big bill board at the SF entrance to the Bay Bridge going or long gone, (haven't been down there since 2020 to look).

https://preview.redd.it/jyuwwz9kc8791.png?width=654&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a75242034a174e91041969ae8db9e79c7edcae8

The Hopium Hype Cat is way out of the bag. Fence sitters scared away, institutions not seeking toxic exposure when they need to position defensively, and BTC is no FAANG equity. It is a junior piece of tech that IS being rightly revalued. All BTC tells us is how silly "investors" are, and how short sighted investing intelligence can be-when enough marketing moola is thrown at a Kardashian Koncept. :)

DYOR hahaha, yeah-right!

Um, yeah. OP just left out the 2022 mid term part here. :)

And hold that thought . . .

DDT TA Ditch Signals Here Have Issued Precise Opposite Calls

The moves above come from the fear/fomo based crowd. They come from narrative, not data.

There has been about zero data that suggests tech investment long is a "good" idea here. Notice how scalpers do not have to think about these big pictures. :) Because scalping does not involve messy public market enemy #1: duration. In uncertain environs, being locked into anything is truly risky. I hate risk. That is why I scalp.

OK, ENOUGH ESOTERIC MAMBO, YOU WANT TO SEE THESE TRADE CALLS ANALYZED?:

The Matic Entry Setup-15m chart with extra DDT TA stripped off for simple viewing

That red arrow is the average trade direction over ~2weeks.....the rest, is self explanatory. (I am working with a student right now, so you can thank him for the share haha....he is in this trade at present.)

Here Are The Exit Ops-1m zoomed in DDT TA Scalping Chart (simplified view)

This is a live Student/Teacher trade, so you get to watch us fail (or not)! :)

DR. KOSPI ageeing with DR. Copper-the 911 Medical Team is NOT happy.

History is DATA Titanium

Ditto. I will simply point out that the two worst are all 21st Century Events :)


Cardano Rumor Rundown June 22, 2022

Hey Everyone!

Let's go...

Newly covered today:

  1. Dirk Hohndel, Chief Open Source Officer at IOHK sat down for a fireside chat with Linus Torvalds. https://twitter.com/linuxfoundation/status/1539255990863941633
  2. A video alleging possible hidden Nazi symbolism in BAYC (the biggest NFT collection in crypto) is provoking discussion. https://twitter.com/optictopic/status/1539087280865828865 https://youtu.be/XpH3O6mnZvw
  3. A Cloudflare outage knocked out big chunks of the internet and a lot of crypto dApps with it. https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/20/cloudflare-outage-knocks-popular-services-offline https://twitter.com/AltcoinPsycho/status/1539142458101096448
  4. Here’s the link for the hearing with Charles before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture. https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1539273885719269376
  5. We have now reached the stage where people are mortgaging their Pavia parcels to access the liquidity. https://twitter.com/FluidTokens/status/1539277134488817666

Previously Covered but still interesting:

  1. Here’s a World Mobile video showing an air node installation. https://twitter.com/WorldMobileTeam/status/1524042009970888705
  2. Unlike UST, the Ergo stablecoin, SigUSD, has maintained it’s peg nicely since establishment. SigUSD is based on the AgeUSD architecture just like Djed. https://twitter.com/ergoplatformorg/status/1524302368241819657
  3. Here is the latest response from Stable Kwon. Doesn’t seem like a terribly promising plan. https://twitter.com/stablekwon/status/1524331171189956609
  4. Both Blackrock & Citadel have denied the rumors they were involved in Crashing UST. https://watcher.guru/news/blackrock-and-citadel-have-denied-trading-with-terras-stablecoin-ust
  5. Mainstream media is reporting that Charles doesn’t think we’ll get comprehensive crypto regulation this year since there is not enough time politically before mid-term elections to accomplish the task. This would push it to 2025. https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/cardano-founder-sees-comprehensive-cryptocurrency-legislation-pushed-2025
  6. IOG releases a new paper on P2P. https://eprint.iacr.org/2022/541/20220510:081002 https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1524587529743257601
  7. Here’s a thread on Djed asking some interesting questions. https://twitter.com/MatthewPlomin/status/1524386978220974080
  8. ADA Handle reports it has partnered with Cardano Mixer which is a transaction privacy protocol. https://twitter.com/adahandle/status/1524088554392932352
  9. Meanwhile Cardano developers are just grinding away. Watch the code forges glowing red hot here. https://cardanoupdates.com/
  10. An important question has surfaced as a result of the revelation that UST may not be the first stablecoin from its creator. https://twitter.com/DeansEpoch/status/1524495566163660800
  11. It looks like Terra may be moving toward a plan where “validators should reset the network ownership.” Is that the type of crypto that most of us signed up for? https://agora.terra.money/t/terra-ecosystem-revival-plan/8701
  12. Even Forbes realizes that the EVM may not be the best virtual machine in the industry. https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencewintermeyer/2022/05/12/will-ethereums-virtual-machine-eat-itself/
  13. Copi Cafe Episode 7 is out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1zSbpzY40w
  14. Here are details on the Liqwid Aquafarmers NFT mint that will be going down at 12:00 PM UTC (8:00 AM EST) on Tuesday, May 17th. The medium article describes a 12 hour window for whitelisted addresses. https://liqwid-finance.medium.com/liqwid-aquafarmers-nfts-mint-date-and-time-c347b05b288e
  15. Daedalus 4.10.0 is out. https://iohk.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/6515425656089
  16. Charles with some very incisive commentary on the way Cardano funds development vs. the rest of crypto. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1525651090376736768
  17. The Cornucopias NFT Tree mint is this Friday (May 20) at 2:30pm UTC. https://twitter.com/CornucopiasGame/status/1526627372916690945
  18. Sounds like Shahaf Bar-Geffen is going to be on Cardano 360 this week to talk about Djed as an algorithmic stablecoin. https://twitter.com/DjedStablecoin/status/1526717080124399616
  19. Solana had another bad day and shock was experienced by no one. https://twitter.com/evan_van_ness/status/1526635595958820865
  20. MuesliSwap lays out their innovative new combination of AMM/LP liquidity and partial orders that is slated for MuesliSwap v2. https://twitter.com/MuesliSwapTeam/status/1526521563478216704
  21. Meld has an ADA-Matic Bridge live on testnet. https://twitter.com/MELD_labs/status/1526655506051473413
  22. There will be a World Mobile AMA Thursday May 19 at 8pm UTC. https://twitter.com/WorldMobileTeam/status/1526834369813704705
  23. It has become clear the mainstream media (and even a lot of people within crypto) have zero understanding of proof-of-stake. https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1526670962837671937
  24. The US Fifth Circuit has released a decision against SEC use of administrative law judges in cases where it sees a right to jury trial for parties. https://twitter.com/prof_jpc/status/1527003339644362756
  25. Cardano is going to have a good contingent at Consensys with over 500 people signed up for the Cardano party. https://twitter.com/Cardano/status/1527000670078902272
  26. We now have some info on the Cornucopias virtual lands that will go on sale. https://medium.com/copiwatch/a-glimpse-of-virtual-land-in-cornucopias-cardano-metaverse-42d19663755c
  27. Here’s a nice 43 second explainer video on World Mobile Air Nodes. https://twitter.com/WorldMobileTeam/status/1526940098591326208
  28. Weiss crypto drops another very complimentary thread about Cardano. https://twitter.com/WeissCrypto/status/1527336737001074688
  29. The Cornucopias Copi Wiki is now live. https://copiwiki.cornucopias.io/
  30. Indigo has dropped the details on not just one…but two…airdrops. https://indigoprotocol1.medium.com/indigo-airdrop-cspa-partnership-1ca79fa3890a
  31. Cornucopias released this teaser video with imagery of a Cloud Gate at the end. They also dropped their weekly Copi Cafe podcast. https://youtu.be/0CM2Qj6dh_w https://youtu.be/yyPsEOsSt7E
  32. Cointelegraph writes an entire article about the need for mass adoption of liquid staking and manages to avoid mentioning that it’s already alive and well for some time in Cardano. https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-truth-behind-the-misconceptions-holding-liquid-staking-back
  33. Apparently, we are only eight epochs away from the Vasil Hardfork Combinator Event. https://twitter.com/CardanoChefPool/status/1528492769223667712
  34. Pavia gives us a peek at a mystery building. Is it a garage? A hanger? An incinerator? https://twitter.com/Pavia_io/status/1528695835734822914
  35. The Pavia Builder Tool is coming in June! https://twitter.com/Pavia_io/status/1528755541169913858
  36. Algorand appears to be suffering collective insanity as they consider giving their DeFi projects double votes in governance elections. https://twitter.com/danny_cryptofay/status/1528729769843597313
  37. Don’t forget, yesterday was the day that Laszlo traded 10k bitcoins for a couple of pizzas twelve years ago. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1528733380124151809
  38. It looks like South Korea is trying to find deep pockets to compensate Luna holders and may hold the exchanges responsible. https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1528820015352389632ECB President Christine Lagarde says crypto assets are “worth nothing” and “based on nothing.” She also revealed her son had bad luck in crypto. I’m sure he appreciates his mom putting him on blast to the entire world like that. https://www.politico.eu/article/crypto-assets-worth-nothing-ecb-christine-lagarde/
  39. Indigo has dropped an infographic to help describe the three phases of their token distribution. https://twitter.com/Indigo_protocol/status/1528849687142350849
  40. Cornucopias will have their second NFT Tree sale today (May 25). This time, it will be fruit trees. https://discord.com/channels/829374949587419137/842583414439542805/978401966944309268
  41. Apparently it’s admitted history that the Polkadot consensus protocol was coded up in two weeks. https://twitter.com/rphmeier/status/1528975796865363968
  42. Charles is in DC for the Blockchain Summit 2022 to see if he can make any progress with the regulators. He reports that Senators Lummis & Gillibrand will release their comprehensive crypto bill in June. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1529128012884676610 https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1529128521553018880
  43. DC points out a great thread on sound protocol design in DeFi. This includes tips on when it’s a ponzi and when you are the exit liquidity. https://twitter.com/DCdoso/status/1529121840177741825 https://twitter.com/josephdelong/status/1528887299743924224
  44. Today (the 26th) will be the May Cardano 360. https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1529161615354040320
  45. There is now a replacement for db-sync called Carp. https://twitter.com/dcspark_io/status/1529434530511216640
  46. World Mobile is now advertising air nodes to local entrepreneurs in Zanzibar. https://twitter.com/WorldMobileTeam/status/1529462461644124162
  47. The future is looking…let’s call it…“interesting” for Ethereum 2.0. The beacon chain just experienced a 7 block reorg. Not a huge amount of time encompassed in those 7 blocks…but still a reorg. https://twitter.com/koeppelmann/status/1529458000011972610
  48. Apparently some projects are more up front about “exploiting young talent”. https://twitter.com/josephdelong/status/1529652818197495808
  49. We now have dates on the first Cornucopias Land Mint June 3-7. https://twitter.com/CornucopiasGame/status/1529873760278413319
  50. Shahaf Bar-Geffen of COTI was quoted in a Forbes article on the UST/Luna Terra implosion. https://discord.com/channels/829374949587419137/842583414439542805
  51. Having little buddies for the player is becoming a common theme in Cardano metaverse projects. Pavia has Pavs and Carda Station has ADA Minions. Here’s the very well done video announcing ADA Minions in Carda Station. https://twitter.com/Carda_station/status/1524823060238454784
  52. Paul did a great interview with the Cornucopias team and revealed some additional new details on the upcoming land sale. https://youtu.be/-As4cwicRZ4
  53. IOHK made a documentary about their visit to the Ukraine/Poland border area. https://twitter.com/timbharrison/status/1529872546081931266
  54. ADA Realm and their partner Actum Games have released a VR walkthrough of ADA Realm Island. https://twitter.com/AdaRealm/status/1530624400910864385
  55. Cornucopias has released info on their long awaited land sale. https://discord.com/channels/829374949587419137/842583414439542805 They’ve also released beautiful Unreal Engine 5 video highlighting some lands in their virtual world. https://youtu.be/v52pdDdPzMw Finally, there was a new Copi Cafe with additional land details.
  56. Charles gave us a nice detailed report on his lobbying trip to DC. https://youtu.be/gHOO_fP75aM
  57. The May Cardano 360 is out! https://youtu.be/Ar_8Lo0nV1s
  58. Pavia also released another Q&A video. https://youtu.be/EZj2ZS0YtmM
  59. Carda Station has just announced new indoor avatars (for when you’re not wearing the space suit). https://twitter.com/Carda_station/status/1531048666919755776 They also announced a mint for new lands where some kind of commercial activity may be possible. https://twitter.com/Carda_station/status/1529976942069440512
  60. Pavia just shared this very mysterious video with a spaceman holding a flag. https://twitter.com/Pavia_io/status/1531243217450057728
  61. Charles hosted a “Memorial Day Chat with Charles” Twitter space. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1531463312642392065
  62. Cornucopias has repriced their land mint with the largest plot now going for $1k. This is probably going to make it even more difficult to actually acquire plots. https://discord.com/channels/829374949587419137/842583414439542805 https://twitter.com/CornucopiasGame/status/1531413907134349312
  63. IOHK has released an article about why eUTxO (e.g. Cardano) is so much better than EVM (e.g. Ethereum) for predicting impermanent loss. Two big eUTxO advantages to understand here relate to concentrated liquidity and fee determinism. https://iohk.io/en/blog/posts/2022/05/27/everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-impermanent-loss-and-were-afraid-to-ask/
  64. The rest of the crypto space has suddenly noticed that 5 million NFTs have been minted on Cardano. https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1531317844004294665
  65. In light of all the uncertainty around algorithmic stablecoins lately, COTI has created a Djed FAQ. https://cotinetwork.medium.com/djed-frequently-asked-questions-f636735be76
  66. Ethereum outdid itself in May with 1.2 million failed transactions. That’s a lot of lost gas fees. https://cryptopotato.com/over-1-2-million-ethereum-transactions-failed-in-may/
  67. GeroWallet announces that they are working with a major TV network that is putting out NFTs on Cardano in the next few weeks. Is this DISH? https://twitter.com/Shawn_Gero/status/1531759992285503488
  68. A Georgetown Law Professor has co-authored a work on what “legal wrapper” is best for your DAO in various circumstances including a great alternative to the oft used Swiss Foundation/Tripartite Structure . This level of published detailed direction for DAOs is long overdue. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1531834247505395717
  69. Pavia has a new partnership related to an “NFT Bridge”. https://twitter.com/Pavia_io/status/1531999174920704001
  70. Solana once again decided to surprise no one by going down. However, this time even mainstream media appears to be subtly mocking them for the many outages and restarts. https://twitter.com/SolanaStatus/status/1532043450107015168 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/solana-suffered-its-second-outage-in-a-month-sending-price-plunging.html
  71. Cornucopias has released a full deck on their land sale. https://twitter.com/CornucopiasGame/status/1532123583870287872
  72. Another great thread from Sooraj. This time on the “marriage made in Hell” that is the Ethereum account balance system + Solidity. https://twitter.com/Soorajksaju2/status/1532020250522296322
  73. IOHK has released a Basic Cardano Onboarding Guide and they would like the community’s help to make it even better. https://www.essentialcardano.io/article/your-cardano-onboarding-guide
  74. Ethereum is still facing significant potential challenges with complexity overload, the full spectrum of MEV, Cartelization of the network due to liquid staking derivative platforms, attack surface related to slot leader schedule, the history of PoW validators actually being the same people hiding under multiple different pool names, and other forms of centralization. You can hear ETH devs discussing these issues here in this podcast put up a few days ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UPFwKyaQOE
  75. Specifically on the danger of cartelization of the network, it looks like Ethereum’s choice of slashing in their proof-of-stake model has created this ripple effect problem via derivatization of staked assets in platforms like Lido that creates this potential for cartelization of the network. Here an Ethereum foundation researcher details those risks. https://twitter.com/dannyryan/status/1531383030786314240
  76. Here’s a new Cardano 360 update on the big things World Mobile is doing. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1532521282947915779
  77. New York lawmakers just passed a bill to ban crypto mining related to carbon based sources. It’s been obvious this was coming for a while ever since the reports of mining operations dumping hot waste water into the finger lakes and affecting the ecology. In a place like New York, that kind of thing won’t go unnoticed. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/03/heres-whats-in-new-yorks-new-bitcoin-mining-ban-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/04/new-york-crypto-mining-bill-senator-anna-kelles-interview.html
  78. Reports are also coming in that the Biden Administration crypto plans due in August will target Bitcoin and other proof-of-work chains over their “sky high” energy consumption. I think we all knew this would eventually come despite the wide spectrum of clever rationalizations regarding Bitcoin’s energy use by its maximalists. https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2022/06/02/report-reveals-game-changing-white-house-crypto-plans-that-could-have-a-serious-bitcoin-and-ethereum-price-impact/
  79. Coinbase is really slamming the brakes on growth. They’re actually rescinding employment offers right now due to the “macro environment”. https://blog.coinbase.com/update-on-hiring-plans-bcedfa634989
  80. Apparently Martin Lawrence is bringing an NFT series to Cardano? https://twitter.com/nftmakerio/status/1533371577928404992
  81. Here’s a great thread from u/sobizR revealing the strong trend toward centralization in Ethereum proof-of-stake with a current minimum attack vector of only 3! https://twitter.com/sobizR/status/1532412816619368454
  82. Coincidentally, it looks like the MAV in Bitcoin is also currently 3! https://twitter.com/liberlion17/status/1533752691171770368
  83. Today (June 7), we may get the Lummis-Gillibrand Comprehensive Crypto Bill. Even if it has only a very low chance of getting a foothold, it may be a good indicator of the potential for positive regulatory treatment of cryptocurrencies to come down the road. https://twitter.com/SenLummis/status/1532746920866762754 https://twitter.com/bot_slam/status/1533973084889403392
  84. It sounds like Carda Station is minting the land under their central dome today (June 8). https://twitter.com/JoyeousT/status/1533954184399048705
  85. Bitcoin maximalists REALLY don’t like this data about how concentrated Bitcoin mining was in the early days. https://archive.ph/fqMp3 https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1533986647938932737 https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1534008506847666176
  86. Binance now finds itself under the SEC microscope. Is anybody surprised by this? The sale of atoken related to the most notoriously centralized large cap blockchain that is also related to a giant company running a giant unregulated token exchange might not pass the Howey Test? Clutch your pearls immediately. https://www.engadget.com/sec-is-investigating-binance-over-its-bnb-token-000556001.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-06/us-probes-binance-over-token-that-is-now-world-s-fifth-largest
  87. The Lummis-Gillibrand Responsible Financial Innovation Act has finally been introduced into the US Senate. https://www.gillibrand.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Lummis-Gillibrand%20Responsible%20Financial%20Innovation%20Act%20%5bFinal%5d.pdf
  88. Several mainstream media outlets are reporting that there was a press call with “people familiar with the drafting of the bill” where Cardano was mentioned as falling under the “ancillary asset” category in the Lummis-Gillibrand Bill. Fortunately, it is actually the courts who get to interpret law (when it’s actually passed) in the US and not anonymous people on press calls. https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1534122462065184768 https://decrypt.co/102180/lummis-gillibrand-bill
  89. Here’s a video from Charles on the Lummis-Gillibrand Bill. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1534210747982442496
  90. Caitlin Long’s Custodia Bank is finally suing the Federal Reserve to get a master account. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldelcastillo/2022/06/07/bitcoin-bank-custodia-sues-federal-reserve-demanding-decision-on-master-account/
  91. Solana gets a terrible technical risk score from DefiSafety due to its downtime. https://twitter.com/DefiSafety/status/1534249102032216067
  92. IOG has begun unveiling its long awaited new light wallet, Lace! https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1534726874152173569
  93. By all accounts, the Cardano event at Consensys was massive and thoroughly enjoyed by all. https://twitter.com/SpaceApeAstro/status/1534678462274969605 https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1534689602291867651 https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1534689148912664577 https://twitter.com/RichardMcCrackn/status/1534682942802481152 https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1534689617877815296
  94. Here’s the livestream of Charles’ fireside chat at DcentralCon. https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1534657863875969025
  95. Coti is now listed on Kraken (June 9). https://twitter.com/COTInetwork/status/1534588566185168902
  96. Dish is launching a decentralized identity and loyalty coin system through Atala and Cardano.
  97. Ethereum’s Ropsten testnet goes to PoS. Shortly thereafter: “We do have some missing block proposals”. https://twitter.com/TimBeiko/status/1534568861319671808
  98. Apparently there is going to be a “Cardano Island” metaverse for our Cardano Summit 2021 NFTs? https://twitter.com/IOHK_Josh/status/1535666494046085122
  99. Lido’s staked Ethereum derivative (stETH) depegged from ETH causing concerns over the solvency of a centralized crypto lending platforms (June 11). https://twitter.com/hodlKRYPTONITE/status/1535536331732185089 https://twitter.com/LidoFinance/status/1536756933054676992
  100. IOG has released the EVM sidechain alpha (June 10). https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1535679688139497472
  101. IOG’s new Lace light wallet will include a dApp store with dApp certification. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1535851975031545856
  102. Interesting questions and responses are posted regarding the security of the IOG EVM sidechain in relation to that of Milkomeda. https://twitter.com/theuttermost/status/1535983805743382528 https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1536138950628327425
  103. Our own Whale makes a good point in that in the Island/Pond/Ocean analogy, it’s much better to have one foot in the ocean than in the financially toxic pond right now as the Celsius related events unfold. https://twitter.com/cardano_whale/status/1536231971210563584
  104. Celsius is having a very very bad month. https://twitter.com/CelsiusNetwork/status/1536169010877739009
  105. Three Arrows Capital is also having a very, very bad month. https://twitter.com/thedefiedge/status/1537465349976694786
  106. Charles has been asked to speak before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture. This is an important committee for crypto since they have subcommittees that deal with things like commodities exchanges and they hold hearings with names like “The Future of Digital Asset Regulation”. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1537613316381503489 https://agriculture.house.gov/subcommittees/subcommittee/?IssueID=14897
  107. A Solana protocol just voted to take over a whale’s account so that they can liquidate the whale’s position via OTC markets to avoid open market liquidation. Does anyone think this is how it’s supposed to work in DECENTRALIZED finance? https://realms.today/dao/7sf3tcWm58vhtkJMwuw2P3T6UBX7UE5VKxPMnXJUZ1Hn/proposal/HuaL6cDtuNtfnJgvwMnYiZDHVCoLAuDtVFgJD8kYChJ4 https://twitter.com/FatManTerra/status/1538448035885240321 https://twitter.com/solendprotocol/status/1538483675913805824
  108. The ADA Realm heatmap is back in action with some new and improved features. https://3dkiwi.io/marketmap/adarealm
  109. Ardana clarifies the status of its treasury in light of the Three Arrows Capital revelations. https://twitter.com/ArdanaProject/status/1537717199627923456
  110. In the recent CopiCafe there was mention of “land staking…coming soon”. Land staking is also mentioned in the Cornucopias CopiWiki. https://youtu.be/vPgKJxPlXks?t=1809
  111. The Vasil hardfork combinator event has been pushed back to the last week of July. No big deal. Just more time on testnet for the dApp developers to work on integrating the new Vasil tools into their platforms. https://iohk.io/en/blog/posts/2022/06/20/vasil-upgrade-the-state-of-play/
  112. On-chain voting for governance initiatives is beginning to sprout in Cardano via Voteaire. https://twitter.com/theadaape/status/1536788771210940417 https://twitter.com/voteaire/status/1535012082776694788
  113. Here’s the first clip of actual gameplay from Cornucopias. https://twitter.com/RobGreig3/status/1538663042623340546
  114. Here’s a look at some of the buildings that will be available on Virtua’s Cardano Island. https://twitter.com/Terra_Virtua/status/1538964324038877190

~Army of Spies


Proof-of-Stake is the appropriate consensus for the financial revolution

Proof-of-Work (PoW) and Proof-of-Stake (PoS) are two different concepts performing the same task. Both approaches have their undeniable advantages and disadvantages. Unfortunately, arguments against PoS often stem from misunderstanding or overlooking the problems of PoW. Let’s make the case for PoS in this article.

Distribution of power

It is not technologically possible for all actors in a public network to have equal status. In the case of both Cardano and Bitcoin, the pool operators have the greatest responsibility as they produce the blocks. Thus, they can decide, for example, what transactions to include in a block, or which block to build on in the case of a fork. If regulators want to force censorship of transactions, they need only focus on the pool operators. The larger the number of pools from different countries that exist in the network, the more resistant the network will be to regulatory pressures.

The next group is made up of entities that delegate power to pool operators. In the case of PoW networks like Bitcoin, miners delegate the hash rate to the chosen pool. Similarly, in the case of PoS networks like Cardano, stakers delegate coins to the chosen pool. In principle, this is the same process. Delegators trust that the chosen pool operator will behave honestly. If not, they delegate power to another pool. It is healthy if there are multiple pool operators in the network and it is economically feasible to start a new pool.

Pool operators may have their own share of decision-making power (their own hash rate or coins), but mostly they depend on delegators. In the event of an attack, it is the delegators who can avert the attack or enforce the desired behavior of the pool operators through delegation of power. For example, if regulators forced a major pool to censor transactions, delegators would start supporting another pool. Again, the more power is distributed among the delegators, the more resilient the network will be to attacks. As the distribution of power grows, so does democratic decision-making.

Bitcoin didn’t have pools in the beginning. Anyone could mine a block on their laptop and get a reward. The decentralization of Bitcoin was at a maximum level, as users had roughly equal status. This changed with the advent of ASIC miners and the emergence of pools. Users had to acquire expensive hardware to make it worthwhile to mine BTC coins. With the advent of pools, there was a small group of entities that could produce a block. Network security improved significantly, but decentralization began to decline significantly.

Block production today is dominated by approximately 9 major pools. One of the major players is the Binance exchange. Note that if Foundry USA Pool, Binance, and AntPool were to agree to work together, they have a combined hash rate of over 51%. Delegators could delegate the hash rate elsewhere if it would be convenient for the network. The question is how quickly they would respond to a potential problem.

Bitcoin mining has become a business. Entrepreneurs are buying up tens of thousands of ASIC miners and putting them in big mining halls. Big players can negotiate significant discounts with hardware and power suppliers. They can even negotiate better terms with pool operators. Energy is differently expensive in different parts of the world, so mining will always be geographically concentrated in places where conditions are better. For a long time, China has dominated mining. If there were significantly better conditions for mining in a given region, there would be a concentration again. Domestic hobby miners have no chance to compete. Especially in areas where energy is expensive or scarce. Mining bitcoins is an exclusive affair available only to the rich and only in certain parts of the world.

The current state of Bitcoin decentralization and security is described in a scientific study made by Cambridge experts in 2021. Let us quote one paragraph.

We show that the Bitcoin mining capacity is highly concentrated and has been for the last five years. The top 10% of miners control 90% and just 0.1% (about 50 miners) control close to 50% of mining capacity. Furthermore, this concentration of mining capacity is counter cyclical and varies with the Bitcoin price. It decreases following sharp increases in the Bitcoin price and increases in periods when the price drops or. Thus, the risk of a 51% attack increases in times when the Bitcoin price drops precipitously or following the halving events.

As you can see, according to the study, the long-term trend is very negative in terms of decentralization. The study also looks at security, but we will come to that later. Let’s now take a look at how decentralized the Cardano PoS network is and why this is so.

Decentralization and security of PoS networks are growing along with the distribution of native coins. This is an advantage, as key parameters grow with higher adoption, i.e. with higher social and financial importance of the network. In the Cardano network, every ADA coin holder can be a delegator at the same time. Staking can be seen as a kind of analogy to bitcoin mining. In Bitcoin, BTC holders have no decision rights and cannot participate in the network consensus. With PoS networks, literally, any coin user can make decisions. Let us add that not only at the level of the network consensus but also in some form of decentralized governance.

Coin holders always have the greatest interest in network security and decentralization. This is the largest group that buys coins with their money. Due to the demand for coins, the value of coins increases, which affects security because coins also serve as a reward for pool operators and delegators. In PoW networks, delegators are only business people who do not need to hold the coins. They only care about profit. In PoS networks, the coin holders are also the decision-makers, which makes more sense.

From our point of view, it doesn’t make sense that those who have the biggest skin in the game, i.e. the coin owners, have no decision-making rights. BTC holders must trust the miners to act in their interest. But miners will always prefer their own economic interests. Let’s add that most coin holders won’t run a full node, so they have no influence on the consensus even in terms of client choice.

If you want to have decision-making power in a POS network, you just need to hold coins and have a lightweight wallet. You could say that the owners of the coins are also the owners of the network.

Staking is significantly more inclusive, as anyone in the world can buy coins for the same value. There is no need to purchase expensive hardware when users want to begin with staking. Staking is not a risky business, so more people are more likely to want to participate. Cardano has no minimum required amount of coins for staking. Users literally only need a few coins.

For both PoW and PoS, everyone would like to provide a passive income. Staking, however, is significantly more accessible to everyday people. Selfish economic interests increase the decentralization and security of PoS networks. For PoW networks, only security increases at the expense of decentralization. To be more precise, anyone in the world can try to participate in PoW mining. Individual entrepreneurs compete with each other, however, their numbers are decreasing over time as only the best ones can succeed.

In other words, success in POW mining depends on many external factors, whereas in the case of PoS, the purchase of coins is sufficient to allow a holder of coins to participate in staking for a long period of time and receive rewards regularly.

If you look at the number of pools in the Cardano network, you will see a large number of smaller players. Of course, there are whales in the Cardano network as well. However, the advantage of PoS networks is that the protocol is aware of its own decentralization and can economically incentivize its growth. Theoretically, maximum rewards in an epoch can only be achieved if there are a certain desired number of saturated pools. Let’s add that there are more than 1.1 million delegators in the network and the number is on the rise.

The quality of decentralization is not only about network consensus, but also about the underlying infrastructure. Trail of Bits, commissioned by DARPA, has released a report evaluating the decentralization of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Let me quote one sentence from the report:

Bitcoin’s Nakamoto coefficient is four, because taking control of the four largest mining pools would provide a hashrate sufficient to execute a 51% attack.

This is essentially a very similar finding to the study cited above.

You will also learn from the report that Bitcoin protocol traffic is unencrypted and 60% of the network traffic traverses only three ISPs. This might poses a critical vulnerability because ISPs and hosting providers have the ability to arbitrarily degrade or deny service to any node.

Another finding is that Bitcoin’s mining pool protocol Stratum is unencrypted and essentially unauthenticated. Malicious attacks can be made to estimate the hash rate and payouts of a miner in the pool and manipulate Stratum messages to steal CPU cycles and payouts from mining pool participants.

People sometimes focus too much on the network consensus and forget that decentralization also depends on the network layer. In the case of Bitcoin, this layer is outdated and vulnerable.

Direct and indirect delegation of power

PoS is criticized for people being staking on centralized exchanges. That’s a legitimate criticism, but if you look at the image above, you’ll see that Binance has an 11% share. That’s a smaller share than Bitcoin mining, where Binance has a 14% share.

Staking on exchanges means that people entrust coins to a third party who decides what pool they delegate to. Exchanges can then create their own pools and use the coins of users for delegation. The exchanges can misuse the coins for an attack, or the coins can be stolen by an attacker who then uses the coins for an attack. As you can see, Binance’s share is not significant and will likely trend downward over time. People will trust centralized solutions less and less and decentralized solutions will appear on the market. In addition, the number of major players will also grow. At the moment, this is not a major risk. The community is working to ensure that people are educated about the risks related to centralized exchanges and stakes from their own wallets.

In general, the delegation of power can be divided into direct and indirect. Direct delegation means that the owner of the coins or hash rate, i.e. the one who paid for them, directly chooses the pool to which he delegates and can change his choice at any time. Indirect delegation means that the user entrusts the coins or hash rate to a third party, which promises a reward and decides itself to whom it delegates the power. Thus, delegators do not have the choice entirely in their control.

It is important to mention that Bitcoin has exactly the same problem with indirect hash rate delegation as PoS networks with staking on exchanges. People can buy computing power from third parties who run PoW mining for their money. It’s called cloud mining. If the price of energy is expensive in Europe, for example, and people still want to make money from mining, they can buy hash rates or rent ASIC miners from a third party in America. Payments are made through bank accounts. Everything is done remotely. 

The problem is the same as with staking, as the third party can reserve the right to what pool to delegate to. Even if the user is allowed to choose a pool, he can hardly check that the third party has delegated the hash rate to the chosen pool. Users pay without controlling the use of the hash rate. The possibility of misusing the hash rate for an attack is similar to that of misusing coins. The third-party risks essentially nothing, since many people can pay for the energy upfront. 

Large third parties always have the disadvantage of being easy to attack. An attacker can temporarily cut off the hash rate at the time of the attack or redirect it to where it needs to go.

In PoS networks, the problem can be solved through user education or legislation (centralized exchanges can be banned from staking). For PoW networks, it is much more complicated, as PoW mining is exclusive by principle and those who want to participate have to essentially trust the third party. There is no other choice. 

On the Genesis Mining website, you can find information that over 2 million people use its services. Moreover, there are more similar players. These third parties have a significant contribution to the overall hash rate for bitcoin mining.

Resources and security

The distribution of decision-making power is dependent on a particular resource. Power consumption is important for PoW mining. Electricity is an expensive and infinite resource that is not scarce. Electricity can be bought with money, which in the context of bitcoin mining can be seen as a kind of investment in order to make a profit. The resource must be consumed, for which a reward is earned. The cost of mining is covered by the reward and ideally, the participants will profit. Mining is a risky business and may not be profitable.

Coins in PoS projects are an expensive and finite resource. The resource itself is therefore scarce. Coins are not consumed in staking. The reward is always guaranteed by the protocol for honest behavior. 

As we wrote above, rewards will increasingly depend on the collection of fees. Let’s take a look at the biggest differences between PoW and PoS.

Bitcoin provides its security through brute force. If someone wants to attack Bitcoin, or rewrite history, they must unconditionally consume a given amount of electricity. There is no other option.

PoS networks like Cardano base their security on decentralization, i.e., the distribution of ADA coins. The greater the distribution of decision-making power, the more difficult it is to attack the network. It is necessary to attack a large number of independent entities that make decisions for themselves, including securing their pools and coins. Individual actors must protect their private keys well. However, this is consistent with industry-wide efforts and people are used to using hardware wallets. For pool operators, this is a necessity.

Energy consumption performs two tasks in PoW networks. Firstly, it is a form of lottery to help decide who gets the right to create a new block in the given time period. In the second place, it is a security against history overwriting.

Cardano’s PoS is built on the same principles as Bitcoin and it is based on the Nakamoto Consensus. The fundamental difference is that modern cryptography is used instead of energy consumption (Key Evolving Signature, Verifiable Random Function). Cryptography is used for a lottery, i.e. to determine who gets the right to produce the next block. The fundamental difference is basically just the amount of energy consumed. The difference is considerable. While Bitcoin needs about the same amount of electricity as a European country, Cardano needs about the same amount as a hotel. As for protecting against history overwriting, it would be necessary to break the cryptographic keys, which would be a more computationally expensive process than trying to get a higher hash rate for a multi-day PoW attack.

The security of PoW networks is directly dependent on the price of coins at the time of the attack. In a bear market, there is a greater chance of an attack taking place. Let’s calculate the overnight cost of a 51% attack on Bitcoin, neglecting transaction fees and the price of hardware. Transaction fees are not a significant component of the budget, especially in bear markets. Suppose an attacker had been planning an attack for a long time, so he would have been buying up older hardware from miners who capitulated and went out of business during the bear market. Theoretically, he could get older hardware. With BTC coins worth $20,000, a one-day attack would cost roughly $18,000,000.

If the attacker succeeds in the PoW attack, he also receives the block reward for the longest chain, so the cost of the attack is essentially recovered when it comes to energy. The cost of the attack is only associated with the hardware.

The attack on the PoS network is also dependent on the value of the coins. However, the attacker does not buy an external infinite resource at a given price (like energy). The attacker must buy directly the project’s native coins in the required amount. For example, about 51% of the ADA coins in the case of the Cardano network. At the time of writing, the value of ADA coins is $0.50, so an attack would cost at least $6,000,000,000. An attack on Cardano would be about 333 times more expensive than an attack on Bitcoin.

However, this is only the theoretical cost of an attack. Since the security of PoS networks is more related to decentralization, an attacker would have to somehow arrange for people to sell him coins. Once there is a high demand for coins on the open market, the value would also rise. This would motivate people to buy the coins for staking purposes. The cost of the attack would get steadily more expensive. It is difficult to estimate whether it is possible for one entity to buy such a large amount of coins. The higher demand to buy coins the less likely is the attack. Again, it is not only about the value of coins. The distribution also helps prevent attacks. As network adoption, i.e. the distribution of ADA coins, continues to increase, the chances of an attack will decrease. Moreover, whales may not be willing to sell their coins. As long as there are honest whales in the network, an attack is basically impossible.

It is relatively difficult to quantify how much better PoW is than PoS, or vice versa, in terms of resilience against a 51% attack. Both concepts are doing very well. In both cases, the attacker is attacking his own wealth. If someone owns 1% of the PoS network’s native coins, they basically have enough to live comfortably, including their family. This is not the case with BTC coins.

Security budget

The security of the Bitcoin protocols is directly linked to the value of BTC coins. If the value of BTC coins increases, security also increases. Unfortunately, the reverse is also true. This means that for every additional halving that occurs every 4 years, the value of BTC coins must also increase at least 2-fold to keep at least the current level of the security budget. However, as we explained above, the desired property is that security scales with adoption. 

During the last bull run, BTC value rose approximately 3.3-fold and has now fallen below the ATH of the previous bull run. This basically means that if Bitcoin is to surpass the last ATH, the multiplication must be higher than the last time. It is definitely possible. However, with higher capitalization, it will be more difficult to do multiples of the coin’s value.

The cost of a one-day attack can be calculated by taking the number of rewards per day and multiplying it by the current BTC value and the block reward size. If the value of BTC in 2032 is, say, $500,000, the calculation would look like this: 

144 * 500,000 * 0.78 = 56,160,000

If transaction fees are neglected, the security budget in 2032 could be roughly $56 million, assuming the value of BTC reaches this projected value.

PoW is very good protection against an external 51% attack, but only until there is a sufficient budget. This seems to be a problem as no one can predict the value of BTC coins in the future. Let’s not forget that the value of bitcoins can drop by 80% after reaching the ATH in a four-year cycle, so security will also drop by the same amount. So it is fair to say that Bitcoin might not be economically sustainable in the long run.

An interesting work on the topic of security budget comes from Paul Sztorc. In the article, you will find the following table that illustrates the declining block reward and the projected value of BTC. Paul predicts that after 2032, the security budget will start to decrease.

In our view, there is no point in speculating on market developments in the long run. It is clear that PoW security may have serious problems after say 20–30 years.

PoS networks may be significantly better off because the security budget is not so dependent only on the value of the coins, but also on their distribution. The attacker needs to have more than half of the coins that are staked. One can expect that if Cardano has a significant social and financial role in the future, the value of ADA coins will increase at least 10x, maybe 20x over the next 10–20 years. If the value of ADA coins got to, say, $10, the minimum cost of an attack would be roughly $125,000,000,000. This seems sufficient from a network security perspective. 

The cost of running the PoS network will always be similar, more or less to the cost of running a hotel. It is realistic to expect to collect enough transaction fees to remunerate pool operators and delegators.

Let’s do one quick and hypothetical calculation. If any network processed 1,000 transactions per second at a cost of $0.20, it would earn $17,280,000 each day. In the case of the PoS network, a stakeholder with a 0.001% share would earn $172 per day. For a regular PoS network, this would be a sufficient reward to motivate users to hold the coins. PoS networks can hypothetically be economically sustainable only from the fees collected. We have neglected network operation costs, but these are minimal in PoS networks.

In the case of PoW networks, the situation is not so good, as a similar income of the network would not provide sufficient network security. What is even worse, a significant part of the income is used by miners to cover energy costs. The profit to the miners would therefore be relatively small. Let’s not forget that the cost of hardware and paying taxes are also expenses that miners have to take into account.

Once the network subsidy starts to decrease significantly, which will be sometime after 2044 when the block reward will be 0.09 BTC, the Bitcoin network will have to collect tens, but better hundreds of millions of USD in fees. If the scalability of the first layer does not improve, users would have to pay fees in the hundreds of USD. 

Of course, if the value of BTC coins were in the tens of millions of USD, the network would not be so dependent on fees.

Predicting the income from the fees collected is also quite problematic, as development is dependent on technological advances, adoption, and people’s willingness to pay expensive fees at the first layers. Regular market principles will always work and if there is a cheaper alternative, people will use it. It is likely that people will use second layers and other cheaper solutions to transfer value, so these solutions will collect transaction fees at the expense of the first layers.

Different attacks on the network 

Decentralized networks should ideally have no single point of failure. The reality is that blockchain networks have significant actors. These are mainly pool operators and a group of delegators.

It is relatively easy to physically attack important points in PoW networks because mining takes place in large mining halls that are easy to trace. In the past, hash rates have dropped due to flooding in China. If a country decides to ban mining, it takes a long time to transport ASIC miners somehow elsewhere.

PoS networks are much more resilient to physical attacks, as they depend essentially only on the Internet and electricity. Millions of people around the world can delegate power to a chosen pool through the wallet. If a country outlaws staking or operating a pool, the coins can be transferred in minutes and business can be set up on the other side of the world relatively quickly.

ASIC miners can be easily confiscated and then used for attack or destroyed. It is more difficult with coins since delegators are more distributed all around the world. So, it is worse to find them and enforce the law.

If the hash rate drops unexpectedly and cannot be delivered quickly, block production slows down. This can quickly clog the network with new transactions. If this happens at the beginning of a difficulty-adjustment cycle, it can take a relatively long time before the network is usable again.

PoS networks have nothing like difficulty adjustment. At regular short intervals, different pools are given the right to produce the next block. They either take the chance and get rewarded, or they don’t. If a pool fails to produce a block in a given slot, this is not a problem, as another pool will soon get the chance.

Bitcoin’s dependence on hardware and electricity is seen as an advantage because of its anchoring in the physical world. However, it has obvious drawbacks as well. If a vendor created a new technology that was significantly more efficient than competing solutions and decided not to sell their device and instead use it themselves, they would essentially centralize mining. Over time, such a player would completely control the network.

Something similar can happen with energy. If a state wanted to control mining and thus essentially control the voting process, all it would have to do is subsidize energy or build a new source. More states could do something similar. Trouble is, entrepreneurs would be at a disadvantage and retail would have no chance to participate in mining at all. The network would essentially be controlled by a few states.

Participation in decentralization must be as inclusive as possible, as the desire to control the network grows together with its importance. Today, the business has essentially driven retail out of the system. In time, Bitcoin may be controlled by a few top businessmen, or by a few states. There’s no one in my area who mines bitcoin. A few people mine Ethereum. However, I know dozens of people who stake ADA. That’s the reality today.

To build the decentralization of the PoS network and the decision-making process on the distribution of coins seems a better design. Still, states can try to buy large amounts of coins and gain dominance. Once a few big players have a significant dominance, people would lose confidence and migrate to another network. Trying to gain dominance and abuse their position doesn’t make much sense from the side of the big players.

It can be said that both PoW and PoS networks can be controlled by a few entities that have a large budget. From this point of view, we see no difference between the two consensus protocols.

Decentralized networks should be resilient not only to external attacks but also to internal attacks. That is, to attacks from pool operators and large delegators. Assuming a large enough security budget, PoW networks are well resilient to external attacks. According to the study cited above, about 50 miners control 50% of the hash rate. This means that if these 50 miners cooperate, they could collectively compromise the network. Although 50 actors is still a relatively large number, this number may decrease over time. The risk of abuse of power increases.

PoS networks are more likely to be resilient not only to external attacks but also to internal ones, assuming the distribution of coins grows. PoS networks are younger, so we will have to wait a few years before we can draw firm conclusions. 

Whales will always be present in any system where power can be gained through money. It is realistic to imagine that teams along with the community will be forced to come up with new rules in order to increase decentralization.

It’s interesting to see how people behave during big drops in the value of coins. PoW miners need to sell coins regularly to stay profitable. When the value of coins drops steeply, miners are forced to sell coins quickly to be able to cover their energy costs. However, this causes the value of the coins to fall further. It causes panic in the market and a massive sell-off. Alternatively, miners can temporarily shut down ASIC miners and wait to see how the situation develops. Both of these can reduce the security of Bitcoin. The reduction in the value of BTC coins will mainly affect owners.

For PoS networks, the drop in coin value does not have such a dramatic impact on security. During the recent drop of BTC value below the level of $20K, the number of people who staked ADA coins did not drop. Staking carries no direct risk of losing money, other than a drop in the value of ADA coins. People are more willing to resist a short-term drop in price because if they believe in a return in the value of ADA coins, they have no reason to stop staking. They essentially continue to protect the network against a 51% attack. Independence from electricity seems to be an advantage in this case.

If there were a large number of ASIC miners in the market and the miner’s reward budget was declining over time, miners would be motivated to mine coins from another newer project. Miners are essentially mercenaries who want a reward for their work and will go where the reward is higher. Younger projects might have higher rewards, so miners can easily move elsewhere. It could be that a younger PoW project will have a higher hash rate than Bitcoin. Of course, it depends on the demand for coins of the competing project, however, at the same time to some extent this scenario depends on the value of BTC coins.

We can imagine that the world will face an energy crisis due to the transition to green energy sources and there will be increased pressure for reasonable consumption. Governments may not like PoW mining and may be inclined to drive miners out of the country, as China has done. The reasons can only be environmental. This will weaken the hash rate at least in the short term. PoS networks do not have this problem.

There are many other attack vectors that we have not described. However, it turns out that PoW networks do not have any extra advantage over PoS networks, and the dependency on energy consumption seems to be more of a disadvantage. If already running PoS networks like Cardano, Algorand, Polkadot remain secure for the next few years and nobody manages to break their protection, it will be obvious that PoW is not necessary.

Rich gets richer

A popular argument, which Lyn also describes, is that in a PoS network the rich get richer. This argument appears to us to be false. Lyn wrote:

With a proof-of-stake system, the more coins you have, the more voting power you have, and those with the coins are also the ones earning the new coins from staking. Since they don’t need to expend resources to stake, they can simply increase their overall staking amount as they earn ongoing coins from staking rewards, and exponentially grow their influence on the network over time, forever. Network dominance tends to lead to more network dominance, in other words.

The argument “the more coins you have, the more voting power you have” can be rewritten as “the more hash rate you have, the more voting power you have”. It holds true in both PoS and PoW cases. 

When it comes to profit, the one with the bigger business always earns more. If you run 10-fold more ASIC miners, you will make 10-fold more profit than the one who runs a single ASIC miner. 

Cardano rewards delegators proportionally. If you hold 100 ADA coins, you will receive an average of 5.4 ADA coins per year. If you hold 100,000 ADA coins, you get 5,433 ADA coins. So if you hold 1,000 times more coins, your reward is 1,000 times higher. Your skin in the game is higher, so it’s fair that you have more voting power.

What really matters is how quickly you can leverage the reward to gain more influence over network decision-making and the reward at the same time. Cardano is fairer than Bitcoin, as each new ADA coin is automatically counted towards your stake and boosts it. This is not the case with PoW. In order to increase your hash rate share in the network, you need to be able to buy a new ASIC miner from the gained rewards. So you have to collect the rewards for a longer period of time before you are able to buy a new ASIC miner. As a home hobby miner, you can wait as long as a year. A big businessman earns enough every day to buy a new ASIC miner so he can expand the business faster than the hobby miner. 

In the case of PoW networks, it holds true that the rich get richer faster. For PoS networks, this problem is significantly less dramatic.

The IOG team published the first research about Cryptocurrency Egalitarianism and we recommend you to read it.

Commodity vs. Equity

Lyn and others believe that BTC coins are a commodity while PoS network coins are equity. BTC is considered gold, while ADA coins as Cardano network equities. We don’t think it is reasonable to try to describe cryptocurrencies with old economic labels. However, let’s take a look at it.

Many mining companies mine gold and the goldsmith turns it into gold bullion that you can buy. This bullion is not dependent on the mining company. They can go bankrupt and the gold bullion will still be worth the same. There is no link between gold and mining companies. Gold mining and gold ownership are completely separate from each other. Gold mining may not take place at all unless it is economically viable.

In the case of cryptocurrencies, the existence of coins is directly dependent on the network and its ability to create new blocks. Without the network, the coins would not be liquid. Thus, the owner of the coins is mainly dependent on the economic model, security, and decentralization of the network. If cryptocurrency holders want to protect their wealth, they must continue to monitor the state of the network, understand the underlying mechanisms, and sell coins in a timely manner if there is any danger. There is a direct link between the existence of a network and the possession of coins.

Is it advantageous to separate PoW mining from BTC coin owners, or is it better if ADA coin owners have some control over the Cardano network?

The way the current financial world works is that all users of USD have no control over monetary policy. Monetary policy is controlled by the Federal Reserve Board (Fed). Users of USD must trust the Fed, which is a small group of actors. Holding BTC coins is essentially the same thing. BTC holders have to trust PoW miners and pool operators. The control of BTC holders over the behavior of miners and pool operators is minimal. As we said, most users do not and will not operate full nodes. Mining is an exclusive business. So BTC is very similar to fiat currency in terms of control. PoW miners, like the Fed, will always put their own interests above those of BTC holders. The only difference is that BTC holders rely on the immutability of Bitcoin rules. However, this is merely a kind of social contract between users and the team along with the mining participants.

Imagine if every single USD holder could decide monetary policy with his or her share. This is how PoS networks work. ADA holders have control over the network consensus and can directly decide which pool to support. In doing so, they essentially participate in decentralization, ensure that pools do not censor transactions, and can even directly decide monetary policy. Together, they guarantee that monetary policy remains unchanged. If it should change under any conditions, it will be decided by all ADA coin owners, not a small group of miners. This has nothing to do with the current fiat world.

I understand the argument that BTC is like gold because of mining, but I’m afraid that analogy is not accurate in the world of the internet. Moreover, through cryptocurrencies, we want to have a better system than the current financial one. The solution is to distribute power among all users, not to leave important powers to a small group of actors.

If we had to decide whether to replace the current financial world with a PoW or a PoS network, a PoS network definitely seems preferable. It appears to us to be an advantage that whoever holds the ADA coins also has proportional decision-making power in the network forever. Conversely, if people are forced to spend financial resources (energy consumption) in order to have decision-making power, this appears to be an exclusive system in which only the rich make decisions.

One of the other reasons is that no one can predict the future and it is very likely that network rules will have to be changed. For example, if Bitcoin’s security budget runs out and inflation needs to be introduced, who is to decide? Should it be the miners or all BTC coin holders? How will the voting be conducted? PoS networks are much better prepared for decentralized governance and for the future. 

The ability to easily adapt to new conditions can be a big advantage against rigid systems that cannot be changed. The debate is not about whether to change the rules or not, but mainly about who will decide. One of the basic rules of decentralization is that everyone in the system has equal status. This basically means that if the majority agrees to the change, it is fine and the change can be made. 

Please read the whole article in the original placement where you can find images and links:

https://cardanians.io/en/proof-of-stake-is-the-appropriate-consensus-for-the-financial-revolution-204


Ethereum (ETH) Market Cap Falls More Than $124 Billion In Six Weeks

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Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is currently in freefall. Over $124 billion in capital vanished from the Ethereum (ETH) decentralized finance (DeFi) in six weeks.

Seven months ago, ETH reached its highest value ever at $4,891.70 on November 16, 2021. But it is now trading at around $1,100, which is less than 75.2% of its all-time high value.

Related Reading | Controlling The Chaos: FTX Exchange Bails Out BlockFi With $250M

The start of 2022 was unstable for the cryptocurrency market, particularly ETH, but in previous weeks, things have become much more complicated. However, the larger crypto market continues to fall due to macroeconomic uncertainty fueled by an unstable stock market, interest rate hikes, and the fear of crisis.

The Ethereum DeFi Market Is Deleveraging Dramatically Glassnode, a blockchain analytics firm, released a report on June 17. The report was titled “The Great DeFi Deleveraging.” The report stated that over $124 billion in the capital had been drained out in only six weeks from the Ethereum DeFi market. As a result, its market value is deleveraging rapidly.

According to their statement, many reasons have sparked a wide range of margin calls, liquidations, and deleveraging. These reasons include worldwide monetary policy tightening, the growing strength of the US dollar, and decreasing values of risk assets.

Their analysis looks at some early warning signs that predict a drop in ETH usage and community demand after the November 2021 all-time high of ETH value.

They claimed that on-chain activity and Ethereum gas prices had decreased over six months. This indicates a drop in overall Ethereum network activity.

ETH is currently trading below $1,100 on the daily chart | ETH/USD chart from Tradingview.com  As stated in the report:

Across many facets of the Ethereum ecosystem, the demand profile has been waning, with general application usage in decline, and network congestion easing after the Nov 2021 ATH, and a cooling off of NFT markets becoming evident in recent weeks.

TVL on Ethereum Dropped By 60% According to the report, Ethereum’s TVL (Total Value of All Ether) dropped by 60% in six weeks. The decline occurred in two stages. In May, the Terraforms Lab’s project collapsed and caused a $94 billion loss. And in June, ETH fell below $1,000, resulting in a $30 billion loss.

By the report, there have only been two higher magnitude deleveraging events: 

The first being -46.0% associated with the recent LUNA collapse and -37.5% during the sell-off from the then-ATH set in May 2021.

The combined market valuation of the top four stablecoins USDT, USDC, BUSD, and DAI has now exceeded the market valuation of ETH by $3.0 billion.  

Related Reading | Why The Inventor Of Ethereum Attacked This Bitcoin Pricing Model

Glassnode stated that the deleveraging event taking place is painful and is similar to a mini-financial crisis. However, they added that although this is difficult, it provides an opportunity to eliminate excess leverage and rebuild healthily.

 

Featured image from Flickr and chart from TradingView.com