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Friday, September 29, 2023
Gold is for hyperinflation, bitcoin is for a financial/banking crisis
For years ive heard the gold bug arguments agianst bitcoin and for gold, and for years ive heard the bitcoiners arguments against gold and for bitcoin.
I have come to realise that gold bugs are expecting and preparing for hyperinflation, while bitcoiners are expecting and preparing for bank failures.
Gold is sound money but it cannot replace global payments, online transactions, or sending money around the world. It is only a hedge against hyperinflation and thats it.
Heres the thing, it takes DECADES for hyperinflation to form. Look at Argentina or Venezuela or Lebanon or Turkey, they have inflation at 50% 80% 120% 400% and they still havent seen a world where everyone is living off of gold, they still go about their lives using their fiat currencies. For them gold is a nice luxury to buy if they can afford to save any money at all but for 90% of them gold is useless because they cant afford to save anything, inflation means they live paycheck to paycheck.
It has taken decades and deacdes of severe mismanagement to get to this level of inflation which means gold bugs might still be waiting another 20, 30, or 40 years for America to get to 50% or 100% inflation.
Bitcoiners on the other hand are not preparing for hyperinflation we are preparing for bank failures, as noted in the genesis block "chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks".
On the other hand a wave of bank failures is an event that can start without notice and spread like wildfire, and bank failures are what make bitcoin a necessity.
If your bank becomes completely unreliable, your bank card doesnt work, ATMs are down, and online banking goes dark, whats the first thing you do? In a panic you go online to see what the alternatives are, and online theres 1000 people showing you how to download a bitcoin wallet, how to get paid in bitcoin and how to sell your goods and services for bitcoin.
A banking crisis triggered by a sovereign debt crisis is something that could cause bitcoin to rise insanely fast in order to account for the liquidity needed to service the increased payment and transaction volume.
Its clear that gold bugs are preparing for hyperinflation which may never come and if it does come it will take decades, while bitcoiners are preparing for a financial crisis and banking crisis which could happen any day causing bitcoins price to explode seemingly overnight.
To top it all off bitcoin is scarcer than gold making it a better hyperinflation hedge if ever there is hyperinflation.
Bitcoin is the solution not gold.
Crypto Weekly Wrap: 29th September 2023
Binance's Russian Riddle
A major development that grabbed headlines is Binance's decision to exit the Russian market amidst looming reports of a U.S. Department of Justice investigation into sanctions violations. Binance's decision has left many in the crypto world puzzled, especially given the emergence of CommEX. This newcomer, which presents an uncanny resemblance to Binance in user interface, has sparked intense speculation.
Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, the CEO of Binance, firmly denies any affiliation with CommEX. There is speculation about the involvement of previous Binance employees in CommEX, further complicating the narrative. This event underscores the challenges that crypto exchanges face, both from regulatory scrutiny and evolving market dynamics. The situation also brings forward the idea that even as major players might recede from specific markets, new entities can emerge, filling the gap almost immediately.
MakerDAO’s Balancing Act
MakerDAO's MKR token has been capturing attention with its impressive 14.18% price surge over the last week, seeing a dip in the past few hours. MakerDAO stands as a premier player in the crypto lending domain, acting as the issuer for the $5 billion stablecoin, DAI. The protocol's sDAI represents DAI that users have deposited into the DAI Savings Rate (DSR) module, further emphasising its integrated financial tools.
An interesting metric to note is the rise in the number of MKR tokens held in centralised exchange wallets, which could lead to price volatility. This could be indicative of the heightened activity and interest around the MKR token. It's also reflective of the dynamic nature of the crypto market, where assets can shift in and out of exchanges based on various market and strategic factors.
Furthermore, the increased balance of MKR on centralised exchanges can be seen as a response to the token's bullish trajectory, with investors potentially looking to leverage their holdings or explore new investment strategies in the derivatives markets.
Coinbase and Spain’s Regulation
Coinbase has taken a significant step by registering with the Bank of Spain. This move is essential for any entity aiming to offer crypto-related services in the country. Spain, despite not having a distinct licensing procedure for cryptocurrency firms, is gearing up to establish one. This is in line with the forthcoming European Union's MiCA regulation, aimed at streamlining the operations of crypto issuers and service providers. Coinbase's action is a testament to the fact that leading exchanges are getting ready for stricter, more structured regulatory environments globally.
Economic Impacts and Interest Rates
Lastly, the intertwining of the cryptocurrency market with global economic policies is evident in the comments by Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan. The potential of the U.S. interest rate hitting as high as 7% in a stagflationary scenario could have profound consequences for the global economy. The Federal Reserve's earlier decision to raise the benchmark borrowing cost was identified as a catalyst for the previous year's crypto market downfall. As the Fed grapples with persistent inflation, further rate hikes might have a cascading effect, not just on traditional markets but also on the crypto sphere.
Bitcoin Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) has lately shown some upward trajectory, currently trading for just over $27,000. An in-depth examination of a chart unveils key features of Bitcoin's current price movement.
Strong support can be seen at $25,772. If this level were breached, additional safety nets are perceived at $25,283 and then at $24,426. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, is positioned at 48, leaning slightly on the bullish side. Another notable metric is the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), which, with its lines being intertwined, signals market equilibrium. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), stationed at $26,889, reinforces a temporary bullish trend.
Bitcoin Cash
As for Bitcoin Cash (BCH), its recent surge has been remarkable. BCH has exhibited a whopping 13% gain in a week, extending its bullish run. Interestingly, the relationship between Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash often reflects in their price action. As the progenitor, BTC's stability and acceptance often ripple down to BCH. Their shared history and foundational technology mean that positive regulatory news or adoption stories around Bitcoin can spill over as heightened interest and confidence in Bitcoin Cash. This ripple effect, combined with BCH's intrinsic strengths, is pushing its price upwards, indicating a bullish sentiment for the crypto.
Conclusion
The crypto market, despite its decentralised ethos, cannot remain isolated from broader global economic and regulatory shifts. Whether it's the exit of a major exchange from a key market, regulatory compliance by industry leaders, or the ripple effects of monetary policies, the crypto industry continues to mature, facing challenges head-on while seeking integration and acceptance in the global financial framework.
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