Monday, February 26, 2024

🏛️ The Wealth Gap & The Fall of Empires 🏛️

We speak often of the rise and fall of empires or the changing world order. The best summary and link to fuller explanations can be found here – a MUST READ in our opinion. What makes that link particularly powerful is it is the thoughts of possibly the most respected person on Wall Street, Ray Dalio, head of the world’s largest hedge fund. Not a ‘crack pot gold bug’, but an observer of history and deep thinker. Indeed, he is often quoted as once saying “If you don’t own gold you know neither history nor economics”. That was a few years back so where are we now?

The good people at Visual Capitalist have just updated their distribution of household wealth in the US graphic. To say it is shocking is an understatement…

https://preview.redd.it/ad4merotl1lc1.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dfc63b7e8b09394f23f23962a2f2620c2a16a707

As you can see, the top 0.1% of American households just hit a new peak with around 131,000 households having a minimum of $38m in wealth and each earning around $3.3m per year. Where we see the societal tensions form that Dalio speaks to is the perverse divide between the ‘haves and have nots’. The chart above displays this in technicolour with the top 10% worth more than all the bottom 90% combined. More sadly, the bottom 50% own just 3% of US household wealth.

If you want an explanation of this in one simple chart look no further than the following from Cross Border Capital and more fully explained in our monthly Global Liquidity update (the last one being here and the next (and new improved format) this Friday so don’t miss it!).

https://preview.redd.it/yddrbwvwl1lc1.png?width=3000&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a64ee8cefa67cfc0bc6219dc37de79079ee47c3

What you are looking at is the value of holding real hard monetary assets like gold, silver and bitcoin verses fiat currency, or not being able to own these assets at all. When you consider wages are generally pegged to CPI (inflation) and if you leave your money in the bank (where net interest rates rarely exceed inflation) you are inextricably tied to that bottom dotted line. Whilst people talk about gold being an inflation hedge, they are often thinking ‘main street’ or CPI inflation not ‘monetary inflation’. The solid black line is effectively tracking monetary inflation, the supply of new liquidity, largely off debt. Indeed it is no coincidence that this chart starts immediately after we left the gold standard and started on the credit cycle or debt cycle that inevitably follows the discipline of gold that Dalio talks to. Such cycles enrich the rich who own the benefiting assets and impoverish the rest who don’t or can’t. Inevitably we have the types of societal breakdowns or revolts that litter history and see entire empires fall and monetary (or more accurately, currency) resets. Every single time in 5000 years, those who held gold or silver survived or thrived.

Such historically generationally unprecedented events are hard to grasp and discounted as ‘couldn’t happen this time’ by most. When someone as ‘main stream’ as a Ray Dalio is shouting from the rafters its worth listening to. He maps out these cycles as follows:

https://preview.redd.it/fon6z88yl1lc1.png?width=898&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5d84aa499db535ce65e410bbf0a14a81cd2e8a8

You can decide yourself where we are on that curve on this cycle. What is just plain fact is:

  1. We have the highest debt burden in history

  2. We have had central banks printing money at an unprecedented rate, in large to pay the interest on that same debt pile they expand each time they print

  3. We have the largest economies in the world relying on government deficit spending (adding more debt)

  4. We have a simply massive wealth gap

  5. We have signs of societal revolt in the likes of Trump, Brexit, a huge far right move in European politics, and the likes of the new Argentinian President calling out the charade publicly.

  6. We have increasingly heightened external conflicts and geopolitical tensions.

What few understand is that anyone can own gold and silver, both available in small format bars or coins at relatively low cost or bitcoin at any fraction (8 decimal places!) and start protecting their wealth and joining that gold line in the chart above. The following quote cannot be ignored when considering where we are at this historic juncture.

Better a year too early than a day too late.


so you want to learn to daytrade:

if you don't have the patients to read this and do the required research to understand what it all mean: you should not consider this
this is the very basics
no I didn't wright this I used bard:

Day trading educational beginners guide

The stock market is a centralized exchange where buying, selling, and trading of stocks (also known as shares or equities) and other financial securities take place. It serves as a platform where investors, ranging from individuals to institutions, can participate in the buying and selling of ownership stakes in publicly traded companies. Leaving a sophisticated web of opportunities, a field where fortunes are made and lost in the blink of an eye. Welcome to the world of day trading – a thrilling journey into the heart of financial markets where every second counts, and every decision holds the potential for profit or loss.

What is Day Trading?

Day trading involves buying and selling financial instruments within the same trading day. Unlike traditional investors who might hold stocks for weeks, months, or even years, day traders aim to capitalize on short-term fluctuations in stock prices. They seek to leverage market volatility to generate profits, often closing all positions before the market closes for the day.

The Allure of Day Trading

The allure of day trading lies in its potential for quick profits. With advancements in technology, access to real-time market data, and online brokerage platforms, retail individuals now have the opportunity to participate actively in the market, all while making trades from the comfort of their homes.

However, this high potential for reward comes hand in hand with significant risks. Day trading demands discipline, knowledge, and a solid understanding of market dynamics. Emotions like fear, greed, and overconfidence can wreak havoc on a trader's success.

Risk Management: The Key to Survival

Successful day traders understand that managing risk is paramount. It's not just about making winning trades but also limiting losses. Implementing risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders and diversifying one's portfolio, can safeguard against catastrophic losses and help maintain a trader's longevity in the market.

Education is Empowerment

Knowledge is the cornerstone of success in day trading. Learning about market indicators, technical analysis, chart patterns, and trading strategies is essential for making informed decisions. Continuous education, staying updated on market news, and learning from both successes and failures are vital components of a day trader's journey.

The Mental Game: Psychology

Moreover, day trading is not just about numbers and charts; it's about mastering the mental aspect. Keeping emotions in check, staying disciplined during volatile market conditions, and having the resilience to bounce back from setbacks are crucial elements of a trader's psychological makeup.

As we embark on this journey together, remember that day trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme. It requires dedication, continuous learning, discipline, and a resilient mindset. In the chapters ahead, we'll explore various day trading strategies, analyze market dynamics, and provide insights into developing a successful trading plan.

So, fasten your seatbelt and prepare to navigate the twists and turns of the stock market, as we unravel the art and science of successful day trading.

Chapter One: Mastering Your Mindset

In the high-stakes world of day trading, where fortunes can be made or lost in the blink of an eye, understanding the intricate interplay between your mind and the markets is paramount. This chapter delves into the psychology behind successful day trading, exploring the mental fortitude, emotional intelligence, and disciplined mindset required to navigate the turbulent waters of the financial markets.

The Psychological Battlefield

Day trading is a psychological battlefield where emotions play a pivotal role in determining success or failure. The ability to manage emotions and maintain a disciplined mindset is often the differentiator between profitable traders and those who struggle to find consistency in their results

The Psychological Landscape of Day Trading

Day trading isn't just about charts, numbers, and strategies; it's equally about mastering the mental game. The psychological landscape of day trading encompasses a myriad of emotions and mental states that can significantly impact trading decisions.

Emotions are Double-Edged Sword, both a trader's greatest asset and their most formidable adversary. While confidence and intuition can be beneficial, emotions like fear, greed, and overconfidence often cloud judgment and lead to impulsive decisions. Understanding and managing these emotions is crucial for consistent success.

Emotions and Trading

Emotions like fear, greed, euphoria, and anxiety can significantly influence decision-making in the trading world. Fear of missing out (FOMO) may lead to impulsive trades, while greed can cause traders to overstay in winning positions, risking potential profits.

Overcoming Fear and Greed

Recognizing these emotions is the first step towards overcoming them. Implementing strategies such as setting predefined entry and exit points, using stop-loss orders, and adhering to a well-thought-out trading plan can help mitigate the impact of these emotions.

Developing Emotional Intelligence

Successful day traders possess a high degree of emotional intelligence. They can recognize their emotions, understand their triggers, and, most importantly, maintain emotional discipline in the face of market fluctuations. Techniques like mindfulness, meditation, and journaling can help cultivate emotional resilience and self-awareness.

The Role of Discipline and Patience

Discipline and patience are the cornerstones of a trader's psychological makeup. Following a well-defined trading plan, adhering to risk management strategies, and exercising patience to wait for the right opportunities are vital for long-term success. Avoiding impulsive actions driven by FOMO or panic is key.

1. Sticking to Your Plan:

Discipline is the backbone of successful trading. Creating a detailed trading plan that includes risk management strategies, entry and exit rules, and profit targets is crucial. However, sticking to this plan, even in the face of uncertainty or unexpected market movements, is where discipline truly shines.

2. Patience and Consistency:

Patience is a virtue in day trading. Waiting for the right setups and opportunities, rather than forcing trades, is key. Consistency in following the established plan, even during periods of losses, is what separates disciplined traders from the rest.

Managing Losses and Learning from Mistakes

In day trading, losses are inevitable. It's how traders handle these losses that sets them apart. Embracing losses as learning opportunities, rather than failures, is a hallmark of successful traders. Keeping a trading journal, analyzing mistakes, and continuously learning from experiences are integral parts of the journey.

Building a Resilient Mindset

1. Losses are an inevitable part of trading. Embracing them as learning opportunities rather than failures is crucial. It's essential to understand that even the most successful trader’s experience losses and use them as stepping stones towards improvement.

2. Cultivating mental toughness is vital in handling the emotional rollercoaster of trading. Techniques such as mindfulness, meditation, or having a support network of fellow traders or mentors can help in maintaining a resilient mindset during challenging times.

Psychological Biases Psychological biases are inherent tendencies in human thinking that can lead to systematic deviations from rationality and objective judgment. In day trading and investing, these biases can significantly influence decision-making, often leading to suboptimal outcomes. Let's look at three prevalent biases:

  1. Confirmation Bias: The tendency to seek, interpret, or remember information that confirms preconceptions while ignoring contradictory evidence.

  2. Anchoring Bias: Relying too heavily on the first piece of information encountered when making decisions or judgments.

  3. Herd Mentality (or Herd Behavior): Following the actions or decisions of a larger group without critical evaluation, often driven by a desire to conform or fear of missing out.

  4. Overconfidence Bias: Overestimating one's own abilities, knowledge, or judgments, leading to excessive risk-taking or unwarranted certainty in predictions.

  5. Loss Aversion: The tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains, often leading to risk-averse behavior.

  6. Gambler's Fallacy: Believing that past events will influence future outcomes in random situations, such as assuming that a series of losses increases the likelihood of a future win.

  7. Recency Bias: Giving more weight to recent events or information while undervaluing historical data when making decisions.

  8. Availability Bias: Overestimating the significance of information readily available or easily recalled, leading to biased judgments.

  9. Disposition Effect: The tendency to sell winning investments too early while holding onto losing investments for too long.

  10. Framing Effect: Making decisions based on how information is presented or framed, rather than on the actual content of the information.

  11. Self-Serving Bias: Attributing successes to internal factors while blaming failures on external factors, preserving self-esteem.

  12. Sunk Cost Fallacy: Continuing an endeavor or investment based on the resources already invested (sunk costs) rather than on the expected future outcomes.

  13. Anchoring Effect: Allowing an initial piece of information to anchor subsequent decisions, influencing judgment.

  14. Social Proof: Making decisions based on the actions or beliefs of others, assuming that the majority must be correct.

  15. Narrative Fallacy: Creating a story or narrative to explain events or outcomes, often simplifying complex situations and oversimplifying cause-and-effect relationships.

Mitigating the Impact:

Recognizing these biases is the first step toward mitigating their impact on trading decisions. Strategies like maintaining a trading journal, actively seeking out contradictory information, setting predefined entry and exit points, and conducting thorough research can help counteract these biases. Additionally, having a well-defined trading plan and sticking to it, regardless of market sentiment, can assist in making more rational and less biased decisions.

Understanding and actively working to mitigate these biases are crucial for traders seeking to make informed and objective decisions in the dynamic and often unpredictable world of day trading.

Cultivating a Winning Mindset

Mastering the psychology of day trading isn't an overnight achievement; it's a continuous journey. It requires self-awareness, emotional resilience, discipline, and a commitment to ongoing personal development. By understanding and nurturing a winning mindset, traders can navigate the complexities of the market with greater confidence and success.

Taking responsibility in the stock market without blaming the market itself is a cornerstone of a resilient trading mindset.

In the world of stock trading, the market's volatility is a constant. It fluctuates, surprises, and sometimes defies predictions. Yet, in this dynamic environment, I've learned the crucial art of taking full responsibility for my decisions without laying blame on the market.

Embracing Uncertainty as a Constant

From the outset, I acknowledged the unpredictability of the market. Instead of seeing it as an adversary to blame for losses or unexpected turns, I viewed it as an uncontrollable force—a factor I could not change. This realization led to a fundamental shift in my mindset.

Focus on What I Can Control

Understanding that the market's movements are beyond my control, I redirected my focus inward. I took charge of what I could control: my research, strategy, risk management, and emotional responses. I honed my skills and knowledge, aiming to make informed decisions based on thorough analysis and discipline.

Viewing Setbacks as Learning Opportunities

When faced with setbacks or unexpected market shifts, I refrained from blaming the market. Instead, I scrutinized my approach. Did I follow my strategy diligently? Did I conduct thorough research? Could I have managed risks more effectively? These questions became my compass for learning and growth.

Adapting to Market Conditions

Rather than blaming the market for unexpected movements, I adapted my strategies to accommodate different scenarios. I accepted that the market's whims could present challenges but refrained from using it as an excuse for poor decisions.

Learning Resilience Through Responsibility

Assuming responsibility without blaming the market became a lesson in resilience. It wasn’t about avoiding losses at all costs; it was about navigating the market’s uncertainties while staying committed to my trading principles and continuous improvement.

In the stock market, taking responsibility without blaming the market fosters a resilient and proactive mindset. It's about understanding the uncontrollable nature of the market, focusing on what I can control, and using setbacks as stepping stones for growth. By embracing responsibility, I've learned that success in trading isn’t about blaming external factors; it is about owning every decision, learning from experiences, and adapting to thrive in the ever-evolving landscape of the stock market.

Taking ownership of decisions in trading without attributing blame to market conditions is a powerful mindset that empowers traders to navigate uncertainties and cultivate a proactive approach towards success

The stock market is a centralized marketplace where buying, selling, and trading occurs.
Markets play a pivotal role in the global economy by facilitating investment, capital formation, and wealth creation. It serves as a platform where companies can access funds for growth and where individuals and institutions can invest and trade in securities, aiming to achieve their financial goals.

  1. Listed Companies: Companies that want to raise capital can issue stocks, which represent ownership in the company. When a company decides to go public, it offers shares of its ownership for sale to the public via an Initial Public Offering (IPO).

  2. Investors and Traders: Individuals or entities interested in buying stocks can do so through brokerage firms or online trading platforms. Investors purchase stocks with the intention of holding them for an extended period, potentially benefiting from dividends and capital appreciation. Traders, on the other hand, frequently buy and sell stocks in the short term to capitalize on price fluctuations.

  3. Price Determination: The price of a stock is determined by supply and demand dynamics in the market. Factors such as company performance, economic conditions, industry trends, and investor sentiment can influence stock prices.

  4. Stock Exchanges: These are platforms where stocks are bought and sold. Well-known exchanges include the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ, London Stock Exchange (LSE), and Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). These exchanges act as a marketplace where buyers and sellers are matched together, facilitating transactions.

Why it Matters:

· Capital Formation: Companies raise funds by selling stocks, allowing them to expand, invest in new projects, or undertake research and development.

· Investor Opportunities: Investors have the opportunity to own a part of a company and potentially benefit from its growth, receiving dividends and enjoying capital gains if the stock price increases.

· Economic Indicators: The stock market is often seen as a barometer of overall economic health. Market movements and indices can reflect broader economic trends and investor confidence.

The stock market comprises several interconnected aspects that collectively contribute to its functioning and influence investment decisions:

1. Stock Exchanges:

· Primary Exchanges: Platforms where stocks are listed and traded, such as:

  1. New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) - United States: One of the largest and most well-known exchanges, trading a wide range of stocks and securities.

  2. NASDAQ - United States: Known for technology and growth-oriented companies, trading in stocks, options, and other financial instruments.

  3. Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) - Japan: The largest stock exchange in Japan, facilitating the trading of stocks, bonds, and other financial products.

  4. Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) - China: One of China's two major stock exchanges, playing a significant role in the country's financial market.

  5. London Stock Exchange (LSE) - United Kingdom: Operating multiple markets and trading services for various types of securities.

  6. Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) - Hong Kong: A major hub for international companies, especially those looking to access Asian markets.

  7. Euronext - European Union: Operating in multiple European countries, including Amsterdam, Brussels, Dublin, Lisbon, Milan, Oslo, and Paris.

  8. Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) - Canada: Canada's largest stock exchange, trading in a broad range of sectors, including energy, mining, and technology.

  9. Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) - India: One of India's oldest stock exchanges, playing a significant role in the country's financial market.

  10. Deutsche Börse - Germany: Operating multiple trading platforms and serving as one of the largest securities trading organizations in Europe.

· Secondary Exchanges: Other trading venues where stocks may also be bought and sold, including electronic communication networks (ECNs) and alternative trading systems (ATSs).

2. Participants:

· Retail Investors: Individuals who buy and sell stocks for personal investment.

· Institutional Investors: Entities like mutual funds, pension funds, hedge funds, and banks that trade on behalf of clients or manage large investment portfolios.

· Market Makers and Brokers: Individuals or firms facilitating trade execution by providing liquidity and connecting buyers with sellers.

3. Financial Instruments:

· Stocks (Equities): Ownership shares in a company, entitling shareholders to dividends and voting rights.

· Bonds: Debt securities issued by companies or governments, representing a loan that pays periodic interest.

· Derivatives: Contracts who assign leverage and whose value derives from an underlying asset (e.g., options, futures, swaps).

5. Regulation and Oversight:

· Regulatory Bodies: Agencies (e.g., SEC in the U.S., FCA in the UK) responsible for overseeing and regulating market activities to ensure fairness, transparency, and investor protection.

The stock market is a multifaceted ecosystem involving exchanges, diverse participants, financial instruments, indices, mechanisms for trading and analysis, and regulatory oversight. Understanding these interconnected aspects is crucial for investors seeking to navigate the complexities of the market and make informed investment decisions.

Specialized markets encompass a range of specific sectors, instruments, or trading methodologies within the broader financial landscape. Here's a breakdown of various specialized markets and different types of markets available:

1. Equity Markets:

· Primary Market: Where initial offerings of stocks (IPOs) occur.

· Secondary Market: Platforms for buying and selling previously issued stocks (e.g., major stock exchanges like NYSE, NASDAQ).

2.Derivatives Markets:

· Options Market: Contracts granting the right (but not obligation) to buy or sell an asset at a specific price within a set time.

· Futures Market: Contracts obligating buyers and sellers to trade an asset at a predetermined price and date.

3. Commodity Markets:

· Agricultural Commodities: Trading in products like wheat, corn, soybeans, etc.

· Energy Commodities: Including oil, natural gas, and electricity.

· Precious Metals: Gold, silver, platinum, etc.

4. Foreign Exchange (Forex) Markets:

· Currency Trading: Trading pairs of currencies, such as USD/EUR or GBP/JPY.

5. Cryptocurrency Markets:

· Cryptocurrencies: Digital blockchain currencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and numerous others traded on various cryptocurrency exchanges.

6. Fixed Income Markets:

· Bond Markets: Trading debt securities issued by governments, municipalities, or corporations.

· Money Markets: Dealing in short-term, low-risk debt securities like Treasury bills, certificates of deposit, etc.

7. Alternative Investment Markets:

· Private Equity: Investments in private companies or assets not traded on public exchanges.

· Venture Capital: Investments in early-stage startups with high growth potential.

8. Real Estate Markets:

· Residential Real Estate: Buying and selling homes, apartments, etc.

· Commercial Real Estate: Investing in properties like office buildings, retail spaces, etc.

9. Over-the-Counter (OTC) Markets:

· Unlisted Securities: Trading securities not listed on formal exchanges, often facilitated by dealers or market makers.

10. Regional and Emerging Markets:

· Developing Markets: Investing in emerging economies' stock markets (e.g., BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).

· Frontier Markets: Investing in less developed and smaller markets with growth potential.