Bitcoin Halving: An Analysis

The Bitcoin Halving is something not widely discussed here, so let me briefly introduce this concept.

Fundamentally, every halving event causes Bitcoin's price to rally to new all time highs

Figure 1. Price (USD) of BTC in relation to halving events

As you can see the cycle lengthens (courtesy of Maestro Benjamin Cowen) and BTC has yet to rally into it's blowoff top this cycle.

Figure 2. Bitcoin is nearing its next halving (-48.7% currently)

Today, BTC is at -48.7% from it's local top. We are very close to the next halving (-50%). Get ready for the most parabolic run ever this year.

Taking into consideration the lengthening cycle and bitcoin halving, I can only conclude that we are, as academically put, all gonna make it.

NFA DYOR

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Logarithmic or Linear of the big guy Breakdown correlation with S&P500 Collapse

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Here we have the logarithmic scale for the big guy from 2011 to the present day with all the trendline channels following from then till now

Here we ca see how big guy follows the originally created channels through the course of its bull/bear cycles, its really quite beautiful how is stays with in the lines

Zooming in more we can see the start of the low level break down once it fell through the trend line support at 40,800 it was like the floor fell out.

Here we can see the selling pressure is easing as the buying pressure increases as it fall to the 33k range. This is because on the following linear trendlines graph, the big guy has support at roughly 27.5k which is the bottom trend line of the big guys entire macro-cycle bull run.

The same initial trend lines from 2011 but on a linear scale, amazing how it still fits all together in the span of the las 11 years with each trendline respectively behaving as resistance or support at particular times of price action.

Zooming into 2021 and 2022 here we start to see the breakout behavior the big guy exhibited in early last year and late last year. Now here comes the FUD starting in late 2021.

Zooming in now we can see that the same trend line that was the top out resistance for the 2018 bull run is the same trend line that might provide support to this breakdown which is at 31.5k. If it falls past this then the big guy will fall to 27.5k which is the bottom trend line on the logarithmic scale for the big guys entire run.

The dates for the retesting of this support in my opinion will be Monday morning as we approach the crux of this sell off from the intersection of he ascending triangles. That really might not be good because it could mean that the last 12 years has been the first Macro-bull run of the big guy and we are entering into the first Macro-bear cycle which below I will illustrate by correlating it to the over bought nature of the S&P500 from 2010 to 2022.

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Shown her the big guy has not all moved in direct correlation with the major markets, but as we move to a multi trillion dollar market cap for crypto the markets now all start to move in synchronicity. Judging from global situation between Ukraine/Russia, the high inflation rates in USA/Euro, supply chain problems globally, labor shortages, climate events, and disproportionate economies of scale, I strongly believe that the global market is corrected itself.

For bitcoin this could mean if it crosses the 27.5k range that it is entering a macro-cycle bear market, but you see there is a funny thing about the big guy in my opinion is that as the price falls lower, it is going to take exponentially higher selling pressure to drop it lower because their will be exponentially increasing buy pressure from institutions, governments, and major whales that will not hesitate to scoop it up at these drastically low prices.

So basically how low it'll go and for how long eludes me to my best knowledge, I feel like it might just play the crab market cycle of the time being until the global markets has periods of stability where the big guy may have surges of upwards growth in the global stabilizing times. In the long run this global market down turn compared the somewhat stabilizing price level of the big guy and the crypto market could be just the catalyst the crypto markets needs to continue the transition of the world from fiat currency to crypto currency over the next decade long bear market.

From someone who truly understands the long term potential of Bitcoin through highs and lows in the macro-scale: A perspective on current events. (x-post from /r/Bitcoin)

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/s9x5q3/from_someone_who_truly_understands_the_long_term/