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Saturday, December 17, 2022
DCI30 REPORT: 12/17/2022 (TLDR Edition)
This is a TLDR Report version, for the most recent regular non TLDR report edition (that explains what the DCI30 is, etc), see:
https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/z2z3sy/dci30_report_11232022_post_fed_speakies/
Not much has changed since. (Except for the CryptoVerse imploding & SBF getting locked up sans vegan fare-you know, small scale stuff.)
At present I am 20% short, 80% long.
Longs are kept on a very short leash-I expect to fully exit today.
ATOM (the coalmine canary) Tide has already turned heavy negative, and ETH is on the edge of turn as well.
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TLDR: same speaky as yesterday, until item 1.1 below.
I am of the camp that believes the SBF Follies have not yet gotten "properly" underway. Perhaps they won't, though I doubt that. Binance is experiencing massive withdrawals, and the party looks pretty over. The US FEDS are on a witch hunt rampage now, and the press is selling this hard (negative) at every op. Not good gang. This time IS different, in so many meaningful ways.
Lacking a crystal ball, I have no idea on event or timing. All I can do is watch the data, and see if the narrative unfolds. We can limp along like this for a while, but a trap door can open any minute. The only market movement are the exchange whales playing their pathetic come hither game, to a bunch of would be participants who have developed shell shock:
Not the making of healthy market action.
It's a real pit of vipers to trade. I am remiss to weight longs without a capitulation event to enter with, and careful about shorting in size-as SKYNET loves to clean the position clocks if you lay them out too vulnerably. Liquidity is going towards zero. This makes wild price swings du jour-and not indicative of much anything else. Light positioning at outlier extremes via ladder trade is an excellent way to trade this market.
I am concentrating on BTC & ETH, as they have some organic volume. SKYNET can very inexpensively push prices about 10-20% without breaking a sweat these days. This movement has zero to do with anything you can TA or DYOR-for it is nothing more than a clash of the exchange titans, ie: SKYNET Gangster$. Hence ladder trading of outlier extremes in both directions.
The manip can be charted and worked, but there is no telling when SKYNET will pump an alternate reality for a time. You can pay SKYNET for the favor (use stop losses), or you can hunker down and hodl on through the move until it passes, (which is what I do 24/7).
My crypto outlook? Market Down, no question. When? Any time! How far? -50% avg would not surprise me.
Pay attention to longer term averaged price data to see future potential. If the Tides keep flipping, I may have to move the Tide time base from 14 to 28 days, etc......to better represent actual trend, as opposed to the SKYNET flippancy of the day, (which is ruining the directional value use of the Tide Arrow Indicator).
So let's focus there below . . .
***
1.1 THE ONE CHART THAT RULES THEM ALL: TIPS ETF
9:07am pst: TIDE Arrow now negative & Trend Support broken. That was (too) fast!
That dashed green line is DDT Day Trend OHR developed over a YEAR. The vertical blue is where tides are computed from-2 weeks back to date. If you chart that, you see that lower highs and lower lows has reversed the Tide quickly. This one has solid support under, and solid OHR over-a real pressure cooker of a TA set up.....now breaking down as flagged yesterday.
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/wNsPO8kT/
TIPs is now retracing in a concerted downtrend, this "should" erase market support into year end. Santa Rally? There were no issues here, until inflation tamed and the FED didn't dole out the candy this week. Now "voila!", there seems to be "issues"-but I don't think that will hold in the chop bucket environ. IF SBF et al hadn't screwed us all, I would be crypto bullish here, but that is not the case, alas.
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1.1.1 TIP et al Divergence Watch:
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NfF1wY28/
BTC Divergency sharply closed. "Nice" CPI data has made the pivot acolytes "give up" here.
Bitcoin looks more stable because it is a thinner market that can be artificially stabilized very efficiently, (ask CZ). That stabilization may get a challenge here into year end as tax loss selling et al gets going, we'll see.
Coin Correlations outside of big broader market moves, remain weak/inconsistent generally-the latter point above likely why.
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1.2 THREE COIN MERGE/DURGE/PURGE MACRO VIEW:
HEADS Up-Positive BTC & ETH TIDEs have turned Neutral-ATOM canary has already died (turned negative).
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/kihTNtqA/
3 Coins To Represent This Lemmings Come Hither Market: BTC (patriarch-white), ETH (matriarch-teal), ATOM (the energetic kids-blue).
Correlation to one another was tight here-then ATOM canary divergently died on the vine...a coal mine canary as confirmed today. ATOM Tide is first to be negative-telling that....BTC/ETH have shifted Neutral, ATOM was the Cassandra here:
ATOM (on the right), trying to get the message across. (It does that.)
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1.3 THE CRYPTO MARKET TREND SPOTTER: "BTC Watch"
Stair step down pattern clear here. Pattern A1 and A2 consolidate, flip up near the dump-then dump. Pattern A2 getting back underway, we'll see if it runs hard on "The CryptoWorld is Ending" FUD narrative.
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8wgeh9Uj/
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If you are an active or learning trader, I strongly recommend you read recent posts and their updates, as day to day I may not repeat important post items, only slather on new data as I find it. :)
There is a free treasure trove of information here, stuff you will find nowhere else, (original content):
https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/qrr32h/welcome_all_yee_broad_sword_scalpers/
Good Luck & Viva La Share-IF YOU SEE IT IN THE DATA, PLEASE CALL IT OUT, (no narratives por favor)!
\*\**
1.9 UPDATES FOLLOW, (trades I make are in comments section-posted when time permits):
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12.0 MISCELLANEOUS EVENT & DATA POST SECTION (ie: everything else goes here Virginia):
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Does CoinTracker consider transfer fees to be taxable events?
I was under the impression that wallet to wallet transfers were not taxable events as long as they both belong to the same person. For example if I transfer bitcoin from Coinbase to Binance and both wallets are mine, that would not be tracked as a taxable event.
However, I was told today that the transfer fees associated with such a transaction would still be taxable. Let’s say I send $100 worth of Bitcoin and pay $1.00 in transaction fees… this person told me that the transaction fee would be considered a “sale” of sorts and would be a taxable event, so if the value of my bitcoin was higher than when I purchased it, I would need to report the transaction fee gains on my taxes.
I was wondering if CoinTracker works this way. I used it for my taxes last year and made a number of wallet to wallet transfers that involved fees and I don’t recall seeing any of those reported on my tax return that CoinTracker generated for me… so I’m looking for some clarity here.
SCARRED 8PES POST 1
The Investment Jungle
The investment world, whether in the stock market or crypto market has always been the playground of the Institutions and Whales: MARKET MANIPULATORS. They abound whenever there is money to be made from the hands of the individual investor.
In this game of big fish eating the small, the small fries are almost always swallowed whole by the big fishes, and the bigger ones by the WHALES, and they in turn by the huge Institutions and Establishments that have power even over governments.
Has been so, and always will be. Or maybe not? And it shouldn’t be.
The market calls the individual investor and trader dumb investors, or dumb money because we love to FOMO, we buy high and sell low, and we listen to news and advice prepared by the very people who want to relieve us of our hard-earned money.
So while we have been at the mercy of the Institutions & the Whales, they have been in turn labelled as smart money because, ultimately, they win, and apes lose.
But why wouldn’t they win, when they have all the resources and huge capital, with the power to influence even governments and the wherewithal to move markets?
The apes aren’t dumb either, just that we lack the same resources and ‘the evil’ in us to do the same as these market manipulators. And the hurt is real. The saddest of this all is that we all have been scarred in one way or another by these monsters. Many of us have been scammed, and others have been hit with losing our hard-earned savings and money needed to build our lives and families.
The worse of us have been rekt!
Market Manipulators and Institutions are powerful because they have the resources, they have the infrastructure, the network and they have all the means under their control to make things go their way.
Even when Bitcoin hit its ATH of $69k, they have the power and patience to depress it down to $17k, just to make more money as the price slides down, and even more as they re-invest at the bottom in the next wave to the moon. That’s where the small fries like us get sucked into their whirlpool, and each individual ape gets decimated.
These manipulators play many roles within the System, in the media, at the policy-making levels in corrupt governments, in mainstream market exchanges, etc. They are endemic and lurk everywhere. They operate 24 hours a day, seven days a week because there is so much easy money to fleece from the individual ape.
But together we are strong!
So, what can we do to overcome these forces of evil?
I say we come together, we band together as ONE, and be the COUNTERACTIVE SYSTEM to deal with the evil around us. By getting together, we create a powerful body that brings together all our expertise, our experiences and uniqueness as individuals, so that we may form a benevolent counter-force against the evils of the Establishment, and break the power of these Market Manipulators.
We have seen, through the recent successes against the hedge funds in AMC, and GME against the hedge funds when apes launched a coordinated attack to squeeze the shorts.
This was not a lucky one-time event. They have proven to us all that together, we truly can become powerful, and that the apes will no longer be held subjugated by the will of the Institutions, but by the free world of market trading and investment that we dream would be a fairer society for all.
The SCARRED 8PES CLUB was formed to formally welcome all investor apes to the community. You may have been scarred as an investor, or even rekt, but within our family, we will protect one another and develop a family where we can take care of each other.
This will be a social experiment: to demonstrate that the SCARRED 8PES family will be able to develop its uniqueness as a community, without leaders (in order words, without the Institutions and central powers that control the masses).
And why is this a social experiment? Because the challenge is to determine whether the community will be able to chart its course and development by working together, gaining group consensus to build a virtual world by which we can thrive together.
At our cost, we will create the 8PES taken that will completely be owned by no one, just as Shiba Inu had done, by providing liquidity to the token and by cutting off half its supply by depositing them in a dead address.
Will the 8PES token multiply its value as Shiba Inu had done? We will follow as much as possible the exact steps the Shiba Inu token had taken, and perhaps our own 8PES community will create the next meme coin success as what the Shiba Inu community had done for itself.
We will also create the initial communication platforms starting with Reddit, the SCARRED 8PES CLUB website, and Twitter, also at our cost.
Eventually, the community-appointed leaders/reps will take charge of how the CLUB will evolve, and the product offerings it decides on.
In our next post, we will explain how the 8PES token will be incorporated (Uniswap?) and all the relevant addresses of the token, and will seek our CLUB MEMBERS on how they would like to see the future evolve for the community and token.
Signing off,
Bad 8PE
Twitter: twitter.com/bad8pe
Real talk... How does Bitcoin 'fail' from here?
I'm a staunch advocate and believer, I'm extremely highly confident in Bitcoin and I'm sure it'll be a bulwark as we enter a new era of enlightenment for humanity. I've been involved for over a decade and don't need all of the lectures on how and why that's going to happen. There are a hundred threads every day where everyone discusses this, and that's great and we should continue to do that. But can we consider some scenarios where it might not play out how we expect? Maybe we can think about these scenarios, assess their plausibility, increase our understanding, and make plans as a community to deal with them.
I'll start with a fairly obvious one. As much as we don't like it some recent events that shall not be named have evidently tarnished the reputation of Bitcoin with the masses in the short term and people have backed out as a consequence. If hashing power dips to a point where a state actor could feasibly make a 51% attack on the network we're probably done. I don't believe we'd be able to recover from it, and I don't believe we'd be able to co-ordinate an effort to continue a successor chain, or even a new protocol, and pick up where we left off.
I don't think this will happen, but we should acknowledge these possibilities and think about how we're not going to let it get to that.
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