Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Cardano Rumor Rundown November 24, 2022

Hey Everyone!

Let’s go….

Newly Covered Today:

  1. The day started with some very worried about the status of Orbis. https://twitter.com/SCATDAO/status/1595491732044521473
  2. Cardano Whale reported on Twitter that “Ardana and Orbis rugged.” https://twitter.com/cardano_whale/status/1595587212619534336
  3. Shortly thereafter, Orbis acknowledged that they are unable to continue. https://twitter.com/orbisproject/status/1595589252330536960
  4. As did Ardana. https://twitter.com/ArdanaProject/status/1595594077260709888
  5. A SundaeSwap founder subsequently reached out to Ardana to see if there was any infrastructure or internal tooling that could be purchased. https://twitter.com/artembwright/status/1595597291896848386
  6. A big controversy emerged today over a big dump of Indigo tokens and a well known project founder who may be responsible. https://twitter.com/bisoncoin_io/status/1595559991775461376
  7. Buying Cardano NFTs with a credit card is now apparently a thing. https://twitter.com/winter_NFTs/status/1595497540169830402
  8. Now, SBF is being interviewed at a summit. This has gone too far. https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1595512579417378837
  9. Cardano Whale keeps exposing the egregious media/data blackout on Cardano. https://twitter.com/cardano_whale/status/1595410139653079043
  10. It looks like the Artifct Moon metaverse is beginning work on a 3D map. https://discord.com/channels/882364185244237884/882374348638404628
  11. Looks like the Bank of Japan will be launching a CBDC in 2023! https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB21BRU0R21C22A1000000/

Previously covered, but still interesting:

  1. IOG has released a new article on the pros and cons of changing the K parameter vs. changing the minimum fee for stakepools. https://www.essentialcardano.io/article/staking-parameters-and-network-optimization-where-next-for-k-and-min-fee https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1585600629740896257
  2. Even Forbes Crypto is now talking about how Cardano is #3 for NFT volume. https://twitter.com/ForbesCrypto/status/1586628979556917249
  3. World Mobile says it is looking to almost double the number of airnodes in Zanzibar by the end of the year. https://twitter.com/WorldMobileTeam/status/1586789320471576576
  4. The Cornucopias bridge from BSC to Cardano is coming today! (Oct 31). https://twitter.com/CornucopiasGame/status/1586849014611329024
  5. Don’t forget that the Cardano 360 for October is out and available. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZRwLWKNNfQ
  6. Erik Voorhees crushes SBF’s logic by asking him to distinguish between KYC for DeFi front ends and KYC for email front ends. https://twitter.com/artofbagholding/status/1586117772005605376 https://twitter.com/ctaggr/status/1586104117197475844
  7. If front ends become a focus of regulation, we might have to move to headless dApps. https://twitter.com/ERG_Armeanio/status/1586423711350984704 https://youtu.be/temmjyKpsEU
  8. If you missed it check out this post from Pavia. It looks like you need to comment to get on the list for the Plaza test event. https://twitter.com/Pavia_io/status/1585939474030428160
  9. It looks like the Cornucopias bridge from BSC to Cardano is now live (as of Oct. 31). https://twitter.com/CornucopiasGame/status/1587110191031541761
  10. Check out the new weekly thread series “This Week in Cardano”. https://twitter.com/Soorajksaju2/status/1586813500596232193
  11. Sooraj & Laura will also have a new Cardano podcast coming soon. https://twitter.com/Soorajksaju2/status/1586998510892863488
  12. Somehow I totally missed this video preview of the cyberpunk themed district of the Pavia Plaza. https://twitter.com/Pavia_io/status/1580554201813618689
  13. Elon’s going to make the blue check mark accessible to all for $8 (or the purchasing power equivalent in your country) and also reward content creators. This could have significant effects on crypto ecosystems like Cardano that rely heavily on Twitter. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1587498907336118274
  14. Virtua has given us a look at what the entire planet of Virtua Prime will look like including the location of Cardano Island in relation to the other land masses. https://twitter.com/VirtuaMetaverse/status/1587525839628951552
  15. Artifct has made a decision to shut down their marketplace. Hopefully, this will mean a focus on the moon metaverse project instead. https://twitter.com/ArtifctApp/status/1587168164336390144 https://discord.com/channels/882364185244237884/882374348638404628
  16. Here’s another teaser from the Pavia cyberpunk district. https://twitter.com/Pavia_io/status/1587476665516662784
  17. MuesliSwap has revealed some upcoming farming UI changes. https://twitter.com/MuesliSwapTeam/status/1587481326097207298
  18. Ardana has revealed a new roadmap. https://ardana.org/roadmap/ https://medium.com/@ardanaproject/roadmap-2-0-the-journey-to-ardana-ba59335c6303
  19. FutureFest just participated in the world’s first multi-destination virtual concert along with some other unity projects. https://twitter.com/futurefestxr/status/1587555369810731008
  20. ADA Realm is creating “The ADA Realm Council”. Anyone who holds a plot can join to help provide input into the development of the metaverse. https://discord.com/channels/903957555083087892/903971388812050462
  21. The U.S. Fed gave us another very unsurprising 75 basis point hike in the federal funds rate today (Nov. 2). This brings us to 3.75-4% which is the highest rate we’ve seen since January 2008. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/02/fed-hikes-by-another-three-quarters-of-a-point-taking-rates-to-the-highest-level-since-january-2008.html
  22. Apparently, Twitter has a program called Birdwatch that could be used to add “readers notes” to misleading tweets about Cardano. Maybe we should look into this to combat the psyops against Cardano. https://twitter.com/micsolana/status/1587774389264973826
  23. Crypto and the Howey Test are on a collision course. https://twitter.com/scotty2ten/status/1587620216938594304
  24. Here’s another case of a supposed news outlet trying to pretend like Cardano liquid staking isn’t the biggest and best out there. https://twitter.com/danny_cryptofay/status/1587761429607768064
  25. There is speculation that the November announcement might be the actual building of a PEReDi (Privacy Enhanced Regulated Distributed) CBDC. A CBDC that isn’t a panopticon does sound better than the alternative. https://iohk.io/en/research/library/papers/peredi-privacy-enhanced-regulated-and-distributed-central-bank-digital-currencies/ https://twitter.com/Northern_ADA/status/1587805885379842050
  26. For November surprise contenders, we also still have the speculation around BMW. https://twitter.com/seenwasad/status/1574144652902555652
  27. Looks like IOG just acquired the talents of Dr. Vanishree Rao who led development at Mina! You’ve heard Charles mention some of the innovative work done at Mina in his AMAs. https://twitter.com/timbharrison/status/1588183693599731718
  28. Goldman has teamed up with Coin Metrics to unveil a new crypto classification system they are calling Datonomy. Very clever Goldman: data + taxonomy. I’m sure you focus grouped the hell out of that one. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/goldman-sachs-unveils-crypto-classification-system-aimed-at-institutional-investors.html
  29. You can do Cardano smart contract transactions with your Ledger hardware wallet device on an experimental basis. https://twitter.com/Ledger_Support/status/1588114156401856517
  30. JP Morgan has now executed its first DeFi trade according to Bloomberg. https://twitter.com/ZeMariaMacedo/status/1588225282850390018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-02/jpmorgan-executes-its-first-defi-trade-using-public-blockchain
  31. The way they’re currently structured and operating, a lot of DAOs may get smashed as regulators will just view them as on-chain corporations who sold early stage securities to non-accredited investors. https://twitter.com/lex_node/status/1588184594133749760
  32. Jpeg Store now has bundles. This will make it much easier for anyone trying to sell a metaverse estate. https://twitter.com/jpgstoreNFT/status/1588279773331001344
  33. Check out this intro to Demeter Run, a “cloud environment with all the tools for building & deploying your Cardano dApp”. https://twitter.com/DemeterRun/status/1582893470015844352
  34. Cardanians makes a really good point about Cardano having the largest team in crypto behind it. https://twitter.com/Cardanians_io/status/1588059198461558784
  35. a16z thinks social media needs three separate game modes from safe space to wild west and to be governed by its users. https://a16zcrypto.com/toppling-the-internets-accidental-monarchs-how-to-design-web3-platform-governance/
  36. There’s a whole crypto twitter drama happening right now with the finances of FTX and Alameda that has apparently led to Binance announcing that they will sell their FTX Token holdings (Nov. 6). https://twitter.com/JohnEDeaton1/status/1589305305388621824 https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1589283421704290306 https://twitter.com/DU09BTC/status/1589135270103773184
  37. Colin from Obsidian and Lode Wallet gives us an early look at Hydra. https://twitter.com/osColinH/status/1588890270149783553
  38. There’s trouble in DeFi land as it’s pointed out once again that LPing in AMMs seems to very frequently involve impermanent losses outpacing fee revenue. In this case, it’s asserted that the lab behind the AMM didn’t even understand the extent of the problem due to a mismeasurement. Of course, the prospect of new DEXs with impermanent loss mitigation brings something new to the table. https://twitter.com/thiccythot_/status/1589022227437039616 https://twitter.com/ravanave/status/1589264438087266305
  39. LBRY announces that they lost in their case with the SEC. The ruling is pretty much the opposite of what everyone was hoping. https://twitter.com/LBRYcom/status/1589645453091827712 https://odysee.com/@lbry:3f/secvslbrysummaryjudgementruling:a
  40. Virtua’s mobile app is coming today (Nov 8). I’m curious to see how much of the functionality relates to their metaverse. https://twitter.com/virtua_official/status/1589691063211790337
  41. Pavia says only one more dev sprint until they can reveal the Plaza test event date. https://twitter.com/Pavia_io/status/1589601264102699008
  42. This twitter space today (Nov. 8) on audits and security includes MLabs, Runtime Verification, Simon Thompson of IOG, and Tweag. https://twitter.com/thompson_si/status/1589620874269044736
  43. Charles dropped a whole video on how Elon can decentralize Twitter with Doge and Cardano. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7dmU2CCJo
  44. MuesliSwap drops a mysterious tweet saying it is working on one the biggest Cardano DeFi innovations. https://twitter.com/MuesliSwapTeam/status/1590096808042459136
  45. Charles sums up today in Cardano perfectly. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1590151060639059970
  46. CZ of Binance signed a non-binding letter of intent to acquire FTX to help remedy what he describes as a liquidity crunch at FTX. https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1590013613586411520
  47. I definitely did not think I would wake up this morning and watch Martin Shkreli and Do Kwon in a live discussion of a non-binding LOI for Binance to acquire FTX. https://www.twitch.tv/uponlytv
  48. Here’s a great thread offering a very thorough explanation of what has gone down with FTX. https://twitter.com/milesdeutscher/status/1589631447517655040
  49. Elon files paperwork with FinCen for Twitter to become a payments network as a money transmitter. https://twitter.com/jp_koning/status/1590413986843201536
  50. Here’s a nice video of Charles crushing the kid from The OC (who is now a middle aged crypto critic) along with some other person who says that “crypto has ruined lives.” The actor basically thinks that every cryptocurrency is just a security. He also reminded everyone he went to college and has a book coming out. https://twitter.com/casey_lau/status/1589530354217783296
  51. Out of the FTX-Alameda chaos, things are really REALLY not looking good for Solana. https://twitter.com/DU09BTC/status/1590307342884962305
  52. Virtua gave us a sneak peek of the inside of the Cardano Island condos. They look good! https://twitter.com/virtua_official/status/1590450026957840384
  53. My…my…my…how the tables have turned, Solana. https://twitter.com/MagicEden/status/1590435695080140800
  54. Rumors are swirling that wrapped BTC in Solana issued by FTX and/or Alameda and present on many lending and AMM platforms will spread the contagion very widely. https://twitter.com/weremeow/status/1590461628864397312
  55. The Cardano Summit registration for virtual attendance is now open. The Summit will run Nov. 19-21st. https://twitter.com/Cardano/status/1591793019975397377
  56. Cardano development stats are looking very nice (Nov 14). https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/1591822447346536449
  57. IOG’s virtual ScotFest will be happening right before the Summit Nov 18-19. Kickoff will be 10:00 AM GMT on the 18th. Keynote from Charles at 2pm GMT on the 18th. https://iohk.io/scotfest/
  58. Apparently, Crypto.com says it accidentally sent $400 million to Gate.io and then had to ask Gate to send it back. People should be asking some serious questions about controls at crypto.com. https://twitter.com/kris/status/1591605600638881792
  59. BlockFi appears to be impacted by the FTX/Alameda implosion. https://twitter.com/BlockFi/status/1590875997351866368
  60. Carda Station has a treasure hunt going on inside their metaverse! https://twitter.com/Carda_station/status/1591462387776888833
  61. A large ETH podcast gets called out and ratioed hard for its past behavior in the context of current events. https://twitter.com/StakeWithPride/status/1591500079873265665
  62. Charles straight killed it in that mega twitter space with a bunch of big crypto names by pointing out that Cardano and Bitcoin are good in all this because they’re actually decentralized which is what the whole space needs to pursue instead of a bailout. The whole crypto space needs to live up to the label of “decentralization” we slapped on this thing. https://twitter.com/iamshamdol/status/1591933841337638913
  63. The Dragon is using FTX as a foothold to paint all of crypto as “smoke and mirrors”. Shocker: she wants “aggressive enforcement”. https://twitter.com/SenWarren/status/1590496981751058432
  64. Things keep getting worse with FTX/Alameda. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that “Alameda Amassed Crypto Tokens Ahead of FTX Listings”. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-11-14-2022/card/alameda-amassed-crypto-tokens-ahead-of-ftx-listings-public-data-shows-z6KFN051ToEpFohTXA89
  65. Senator Lummis explains why the FTX bankruptcy wouldn’t have happened under the Lummis-Gillibrand Bill. https://twitter.com/SenLummis/status/1592212987259281408
  66. Humans often seem to value optimization of short-term growth over optimization of long-term growth. Even some Western Economists in the Cold War thought the USSR would outgrow the US. The crypto space is making the same mistake in undervaluing Cardano’s long term optimization. https://www.thecrimson.com/article/1960/10/17/professor-predicts-soviet-union-growth-will/ https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/01/soviet-growth-american-textbooks.html
  67. The New York Fed is rolling out a CBDC proof-of-concept along with BNY Mellon, Citi, HSBC, Mastercard, PNC Bank, TD Bank, Truist, U.S. Bank and Wells Fargo. https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/financial-services-and-infrastructure/2022/20221115 https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221115005936/en/Members-of-the-U.S.-Banking-Community-Launch-Proof-of-Concept-For-A-Regulated-Digital-Asset-Settlement-Platform
  68. FTX-Alameda Contagion report: SALT lending has paused withdrawals and deposits. https://twitter.com/coffeebreak_YT/status/1592567205727961089 https://twitter.com/Travis_Kling/status/1592198107734876160
  69. Here’s a sneak peek at the upcoming Cardano Summit 2022 NFTs from TURF. https://twitter.com/Turf_NFT/status/1592536651472855041
  70. Sounds like we’ll get news on the Pavia live event “very soon”. https://twitter.com/PaviaRoss/status/1592474815096848385
  71. Frederik Gregaard’s latest interview definitely poses a hypothetical related to BMW involvement in Cardano. https://youtu.be/Uk9arH5qMIo?t=4234
  72. Caitlin Long’s Custodia Bank gets a preliminary win against the Federal Reserve in its quest to get a master account (that is necessary to get a routing number and etc). https://twitter.com/wadaniel/status/1592171742889480192
  73. Vitalik is worried about bugs in SC code and “most worried” about hacks of ZK-Rollups. I believe it’s obvious that ETH ZK-Rollups will generally be DnPs (“deposit and pray”). https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1592881308002549761
  74. ScotFest is only a day away (11-17). You can watch the stream on youtube. https://twitter.com/InputOutputHK/status/159293618740435763
  75. The US House Committee on Financial Services has planned a hearing on the FTX collapse for December. https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=409920
  76. The Financial Services Committee hearing will not be the first time the Chairwoman of that committee has met SBF. https://twitter.com/hexidethmal/status/1591100345395990530 https://twitter.com/ChuckRossDC/status/1592951865519800320
  77. Congressional scrutiny of Binance’s role in the FTX collapse is interesting. How about someone determine FTX’s role in the FTX collapse before pointing fingers elsewhere? https://twitter.com/TheBlock__/status/1592945434355384321
  78. FTX Contagion Update: Genesis has suspended redemptions and new loan originations. https://twitter.com/GenesisTrading/status/1592867208275046401
  79. Yoroi has some kind of “especially exciting” announcement for the Cardano Summit! https://twitter.com/CryptoKeish/status/1592983315157770243
  80. Looks like City AM broke the news that IOG’s investment in the University of Edinburgh lab was $4.5 Million. https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1593253855461920769 https://twitter.com/EditorParkin/status/1593253160365494273
  81. Don’t forget! ScotFest will be live in just a few hours at 10am GMT with a keynote from Charles at 2pm GMT (Nov. 18). https://iohk.io/en/scotfest#watch
  82. There’s trouble in Cardano NFT land. Allegations are levied that jpg.store is moving toward centralization and monopoly. https://twitter.com/Padierfind/status/1593243249442902017 https://twitter.com/berry_ales/status/1593251527292260357
  83. Looks like criminal charges are incoming over the FTX scandal. No surprise there. I wonder if eyes wide shut parties are easier to organize in jail or in a $40 million penthouse. https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1593285566539390977
  84. The FTX bankruptcy docs depict a horror show of complete lack of corporate controls. https://pacer-documents.s3.amazonaws.com/33/188450/042020648197.pdf
  85. Binance suspended deposits of USDT (SOL) and USDC (SOL). But, then resumed accepting USDT (SOL) deposits. https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/deposits-of-usdt-sol-token-resumed-4df9fb3a27bf4735b7a726a3a9849ac0
  86. Here’s a great presentation on Midnight from IOG. https://youtu.be/DxW_wrdTWuE
  87. You can mint the Cardano Summit 2022 NFTs by finding the secret area (go downstairs then out on the balcony to enter the garden which will transport you) and collecting all of the coins there. https://twitter.com/Cardano/status/1590268059645890560
  88. Emurgo is launching a stable coin! I secretly encoded that news in the last thirty seconds of last Friday’s video. https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/11/18/cardano-based-regulated-stablecoin-usda-will-hit-the-market-in-early-2023/
  89. All the data on the Cardano Summit voting has been released. https://voting.summit.cardano.org/categories
  90. Crypto made it into the G20 Leaders Declaration released by the White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/16/g20-bali-leaders-declaration/
  91. The overcollateralized algorithmic Djed stablecoin from COTI will launch in January 2023! The Djed Pay mobile app will also be coming in 2023. The collection of partnerships they have already inked looks very impressive. https://twitter.com/COTInetwork/status/1594697378069725185
  92. Here’s the full rundown on the 1:1 fully backed USDA stablecoin from Emurgo. It’s more than just a stablecoin. It’s a gate between a fully regulated fiat world account and your wild west crypto world wallet. https://youtu.be/cM7CjZOezto
  93. Wow. It looks like SBF was really meeting with everyone, even Fed Chair Jerome Powell. https://www.federalreserve.gov/foia/files/chair-powell-calendar-022022.pdf
  94. JCrypto gave us the first peek of Virtua condo interiors. https://twitter.com/JCRYPTO_YT/status/1594687839073075202
  95. Cornucopias debuted another reel of their metaverse. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbH4B9X_Szw
  96. The Cardano Island Crib event beta test is now live. https://blog.virtua.com/virtua-news/cardano-island-crib-beta-test-faqs/
  97. This is an important skirmish in the greater battle and war. https://twitter.com/lex_node/status/1594824963386638336
  98. Carda Station has secretly built and opened up a second colony on the moon and it’s covered with a dome! https://twitter.com/Carda_station/status/1594863875328983041
  99. MuesliSwap is deploying concentrated liquidity pools on private testnet. https://twitter.com/MuesliSwapTeam/status/1593621917151514631
  100. Congressman Tom Emmer is trying to make it clear to everyone that the FTX collapse was about centralized finance and not about crypto which is focused on decentralization. https://twitter.com/RepTomEmmer/status/1595148698170032128
  101. Brian Armstrong has revealed that Coinbase had $39.9 billion in BTC as of September. https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1595126425371414528
  102. Virtua gave us a look at the exterior of the various sizes of cribs. https://blog.virtua.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Virtua-Metaverse-Cardano-Island-Cribs-PDF.pdf
  103. Virtua will also be introducing its land bots on Monday, November 28th. https://twitter.com/VirtuaMetaverse/status/1595182840462938113

~Army of Spies


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DCI30 REPORT: 11/23/2022 (post FED Speakies)

TLDR:

(the part that matter$)

...............................................................................................................................................................................

1.0 THE DCI30 CRYPTO INDEX LEVEL TODAY: circa 11:32am pst today

This post is continually updated (usually), so hit 'screen refresh' and look below item #1.9 (when it appears) for updates, (or not). ;)

DCI30 Index Notes:

The DCI30 Crypto Index was begun 04/07/2022, to serve traders who seek an accurate, reliable, and transparent index of the CryptoMarket, details here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/tyoa3m/ddt_crypto_index_creation_introducing_the_dci30/

11:36am pst

Yesterday was -65.8%, so we have jumped back further towards the Sharkline after the Sellathon Sunday/Monday One/Two K.O. PunchFest #2.

Neutral TIDEs are turning negative (see chart at item 1.2 below), because underlying support after SBF sell off #2 is weakening.

TAKEAWAY: Longs well behind the SharkLine can work explosively, just as shorts do from the other side....AS LONG AS WE ARE DITHERING ABOUT THE SELACHIMORPHA LINE. (Yes, surfers know the word "shark" in 729 languages, even dead ole'latin haha.)

Remember: the DCI30 is not weighted to large cap, it is 30 coins, all of equal weight. So FTT (now at "zero", second in $lashCrash only to LUNA at -98%), moves the index the same amount that BTC does, (financial democracy that, haha). Some ALTS are moving about huge here, check the coins attached to SBFwoes and you'll see that in FTT (if you can find it), SOL, SRM, et etc.

=============> THIS IS WHERE YOU BUY LONG IN THE SHARKLINE PROCESS:

[TLDR: this report area unchanged from yesterday-until item 1.1]

REMINDER: The problem with Longs here, is we have SKYNET Gangsters on the loose-right out in the open where they can scare the hell out of anyone and everyone. And they are doing a fabulous job all around. So keep those Longs on a tight leash as the trap door abounds daily in this! ;)

The Sheep Bleater's Refrain:

The big brains churn and burn with their word salad analysis penned to impress (everyone has to eat), but the simple K.I.S.S. facts are this:

(1) there is a lot of money that needs to go to work

(2) that $$$ is being eaten alive by inflation's chomp chomp (so it is in extreme tension, and not the FOMO type, but the organic fiscal "have to" variety\):*

*Psssst: this is strong, strong like GRAVITY strong.

(3) it is only a matter of time before the band is struck back up (and up). Law of the Lambo Loving Lemmings! The Market "will" adjust to 'the new black', and THAT cash "will" be deployed. WHEN, not "if" is the operative question. This market has been laughing in the face of risk-and that is duly noted here in this view. "More risk is ok" may become "the new market black" of sorts.

**(4) The TIP ETF Chart is the best forward compass for what (RIA v RINA) is coming down the line . . . keep in mind there can be a two week-ish delay from that 'cause' to its 'effect'.....**and at present, that 2 weeks has us UP from here. ;)

(5) Some new rules are getting written here, as "this time IS different". :)

(6) Meanwhile, enjoy the volatility/yoyo action, things are moving at last! This is NOT a healthy market-this is a 'running wounded' market.

And About that Money thing:

Dry powder

" There is a lot of dry powder on the VC/PE side and we have multiple data points of creation through periods of distress as bootstrapping, innovation and human ingenuity come to fore when resources become more scarce. To put numbers to those theories….126 unicorns were formed in GFC and PE and VC combined have have $2.5 trillion of dry powder currently which is 8.5x the amount they had in 2000 (GS) "

See also: https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/xrf18i/market_outlook_where_we_go_from_here_09292022/

.

1.1 THE ONE CHART THAT RULES THEM ALL: TIPS ETF

11:45am pst

1HR TIDE VIEW: That dashed red line is DDT Day Trend Support developed over a YEAR.

CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/wNsPO8kT/

We have been moving sideways under material OHR . . . which is being breached again now.

***

[TLDR: this report area is basically unchanged much from yesterday-until item 1.1.1]

CPI print came in "happy" two weeks-ish ago (not), today the FED sounds all dovish, (sorta kinda).

So where's the big reaction here today?

(I am not seeing it.)

Watch this one closely as it's THE HUGE 800lb canary in everybody's room.....and due to the time prognostication attribute (loose 2 week correlations), we are getting the 'heads up!' for end of November and the beginning of December.

In Crypto: this is a weak market-weakening further. Headwinds are stacking up, (I am posting them as I see them). A Crypto Tsunami hit last week. After shocks are extremely likely.

This is NOT a simple set up for Crypto. It looks as though Binance is playing this in a manner which drives down prices, so they can vacuum up competition and crypto assets at extreme discounts. Think BTC 10k range. ALTs would likely be slaughtered at least 50% in that melee, from where they sit today.

.

1.1.1 TIP et al Divergence Watch:

11:51am pst

CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NfF1wY28/

Rates are falling again, and so TIPs is rising-big time. BTC/S&P500 Divergency is huge here-and is getting worse WITH BITCOIN OVERBOUGHT!

Broader Markets are headed up on the CPI Crack Benny, as Crypto has been heading down on the FTX Fiasco.

DITCH ANALYSIS NOTES:

IF Broader Markets run RINA, THEN crypto "will" run down hard.

IF Broader Markets run RIA, THEN crypto "will" drift down.

IF Broader Markets rally RIA, THEN crypto "will" slide sideways or may grind up a touch, but "will" likely lag the rally considerably, (show weaker correlations on average).

BTC is consolidating here, and I doubt the gap will become closed thru it rising to meet Broader Market as the latter moves up here. ;)

TODAY'S FED SPEAKY HAS CHANGED NOTHING MATERIAL.

.

1.2 THREE COIN MERGE/DURGE/PURGE MACRO VIEW:

HEADS Up-NEUTRAL TIDES HAVE ALL (barely) TURNED NEGATIVE 11/21/2022:

11:55am pst: 1hr View

CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/kihTNtqA/

3 Coins To Represent This Lemmings Come Hither Market: BTC (patriarch-white), ETH (matriarch-teal), ATOM (the kids-blue). All grinding down here-a SKYNET stair step at a time

Note the recently flagged ETH "high", BTC "mid", and ATOM "low" spread has closed in the hot new RINA environ. No heroes in the FTX cross fire here I suppose.

.

The music stopped last week, and voila: Carnage abounded and abounding.

Now for some Means Reversion before the next on$laught? We'll see this week as Broader Markets rally-or not. (My guess is not.)

We had a triple tap on new lower support zone, and MANY other market bummers two weaks (sic) ago....not good. These things generally happen before markets fall-and fall is what we got.

.

[TLDR: this report area is basically unchanged much from last report-until item 1.3]

If you haven't figured it out yet (hey-took me a while!), the memo issued from the Crypto Overlords was crystal clear: the crypto market is not only incredibly manipulated by a select nefarious few (yup-sorry Virginia, as with all else, nothing new under the sun here-call SBF & CZ if you want to hear it from horsey mouths), it is also being run by what are either seriously stupid (SBFs), or seriously corrupt (SBFs)-or seriously both SKYNETTERStm. I have no idea which, and gee-it just does not matter much outside their skynet locker room.

This was sent in by an irate Ditch Member (who wants to see SBF & his parents jailed), if you want to see unbridled corruption in the making, give it a listen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmmXUtRt6xo

This is a toxic market running without oversight, and if one is to trade it effectively, one needs to check their blue sky rainbow bias boyscout BS at the door. Fail to do that, and, well-good luck to you! (You'll need a lot of that, as hope is not a plan, except at Hope.com.) Hope.com, Michael Saylor, and MSTR (Saylor's 'alms don't mater'), is one of the most shorted stocks out there today. ;)

.

1.3 THE CRYPTO MARKET TREND SPOTTER: "BTC Watch"

====> HEADS UP ON THIS ONE GANG-READ CAREFULLY, MUCHO MUCHO HAS CHANGED

11:58am pst

CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8wgeh9Uj/

.

[TLDR: this report area is basically unchanged much from last report-until item 1.9]

===>Summary Case For "UP" from here:

CPI data all happy and snappy now, FED is a Dove! (not).

Prices are such the bargain! (?)

SKYNET may desire it to be so. :) .........(Call CZ and ask what's next, see if he'll take your call).

SBF Calls CZ to say "April's Fool!" in Mandarin

BTC rewriting new annual lows-bottom in then?

.

===>Summary Case For "DOWN" FROM HERE:

How much time do you have?

We have refallen well under OHR1 hard. Ouch! New Support has already been taken out and we have reentered the primary summer downtrend-and are clinging to it. Nothing magical here, just pure persistent weakness and a big dose of EvilDoing from EvilDoers. \:)*

Weeks ago I noted:

*"*Trade Note: I am reminded of the last time SKYNET ran BTC up to 25k zone, just to reverse it into 18.1k zone fast, so careful there with the giddy longs as well as aggressive shorts. Things have been very quiet, and now all of a sudden . . . SKYNET is on the move."

And new 15k 2022 lows for BTC are in. Prophetic and me so smarty? NO. (I wish!) Just reading the patterns peeps.....the data is there if one is willing to process it, instead of continually huffing HODL HOPIUM BLUESKY BS.

What's next? Dunno-we are in BlackSwanLand now, and will be for quite some time I think. What I like here is we have beat June lows in BTC, but ETH is still well up in the air. And hold that thought. ATOM? Ditto x3. Matic? You get the idea. Make Hay While That Short Sun Shines is my parting comment. ;)

I am now considering a sea change move: swing this crapper short HARD into 2023 and head to Costa Rica and surf until then. Pura Vida! Wake me when it gets real! Not there yet, but that is my thinking here, as what's next? USDT going boom? (seriously)

Give the first 11 minutes of this a listen if you want to understand better where I am coming from:

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/124856-shorts-going-to-zero-and-some-multi-bagger-longs-a-consumer-stock?type=guest-interviews%2Chedgeye-

\***

If you are an active or learning trader, I strongly recommend you read recent posts and their updates, as day to day I may not repeat important post items, only slather on new data as I find it. :)

There is a free treasure trove of information here, stuff you will find nowhere else, (original content):

https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/qrr32h/welcome_all_yee_broad_sword_scalpers/

Good Luck & Viva La Share-IF YOU SEE IT IN THE DATA, PLEASE CALL IT OUT, (no narratives por favor)!

\*\**

1.9 UPDATES FOLLOW, (trades I make are in comments section-posted when time permits):

.

7.0 BROADER MARKETS:

USA TODAY: Up, per projections.

7.1 Checking In With The Tea Leaves (not the kardashians):

12:03pm pst: THIS is a market with NOTHING in its way to UP.

S&P 4000 level hit yesterday as called, up we go gang-NOTHING IN THE WAY HERE.

.

9.0 CORRELATIONS:

12:06 pm pst: Inconsistent to Divergent

​

Correlations Earlier (divergent city!)

CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/jYBlpfbm/

.

12.0 MISCELLANEOUS EVENT & DATA POST SECTION (ie: everything else goes here Virginia):

.

ETH Today on Ascendex-*fizzle*

.


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⚡️⚡️⚡️The VOLTICHANGE is here to stay! ⚡️⚡️⚡️

After 11 months of hard work by the Voltoshi team, the mastermind behind Volt Inu.

Voltichange has brought us this mechanism/tool that allows you to burn your Volt Inu tokens when you buy or sell, and not only that! The token of your preference listed by the BSC or ETH network, you can list it and make your Swap without problems and it will automatically burn 0.25% depending on the estimated amount.
VOLTICHANGE

This Friday, November 25, on Pablo CRO's YouTube channel they bring us a very important announcement of a Tier 1⚡️⚡️⚡️ Channel PabloCRO

Many good things are coming and before the end of the year 2022, Volt Inu will be in 100 CEX.

On Saturday, November 26, it will be another historic event with the $EGT team, Elon Musk will be presented with the Elon Goat and Volt Inu Monument, in Austin, Texas. Monument

Despite the bear market, $VOLT and $EGT don't care, they are always bullish.

Prepare your bags that the trip has turbulence to the moon.

#VOLT #VDSC #VOLTARMY #VOLTINU

#NFT #VOLTINUNFT #Bullish #FTX #X

⚡️Twitter Official NFT VDSC⚡️

⚡️Twitter Official Volt Inu⚡️

⚡️http://linktr.ee/voltinuofficial⚡️

#VOLTISOFT #VOLTICHANGE #Voltinuofficial #crypto #shibainu #altcoin #markets #cryptocurrency #BTC #USDT $DXY #BabyDoge #Binance #Bitcoin #ETH #VOLTINU


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10 Thoughts from 2 weeks in St Kitts / BCH22

I'm sitting in the SKN airport right now waiting for my flight out. As far as I'm aware, I think I'm the last international conference attendee to leave, although there's nothing significant about that, it's just a curiosity.

I thought it might be interesting to make a post with a few thoughts from spending time here with a bunch of other conference attendees and exploring the island.

  1. "Bad" news first. Is St Kitts 100% (merchant) adopted? No, not even close. 50% merchant adoption? No, probably not that either. If the criteria is narrowed to retail brick-and-mortar merchants in certain tourist heavy parts of the island? Yes, with those caveats (ie drawing a selective perimeter), it's probably accurate to say 50% of those places accept BCH. Silver lining: It's a non trivial area and they do actually accept BCH. Sometimes it might be more or less smooth (staff familiarity with accepting payments in BCH varies, sometimes the phone used to accept BCH isn't charged etc.), but in nearly all cases where the "BCH accepted here" stickers can be found it is possible to pay in BCH. Staff or technology issues can be managed with a little patience and the staff are happy to facilitate, it's not a hassle or something they find frustrating even if it isn't totally smooth.

  2. Several BCH22 attendees spent only BCH while here - no fiat at all. Even if that was partly facilitated by sticking to the BCH accepting areas, I'd say that's very impressive and lives up to the "100% adoption" claim of the event from that person's point of view. I didn't quite manage that (read: I was willing to bend a little for convenience), I used fiat on 1.5 taxi rides (I onboarded one of my taxi drivers, and they agreed to take half payment in BCH) and three or four times at the grocery store next to the hotel, but otherwise for me only BCH for nearly 2 weeks.

  3. On St Kitts, BCH is Bitcoin. It's a simple, uncontested fact. I was careful to specify "Bitcoin Cash" when I first arrived, but putting the "cash" part in meant sometimes the locals thought I was offering a choice with USD, so I stopped bothering with that and just said "Bitcoin". Everyone knows exactly what you mean. I expect this to play out similarly in other areas where BCH can build heavy, real-world adoption. I only heard a local mention any other crypto, BTC, ETH or any other, one time when telling me that he was involved in speculating in different cryptos online.

  4. The locals have a spectrum of opinions on BCH adoption, but for the most part are interested and curious. No one I encountered was actively hostile to it. As mentioned in point 3, everyone knows about it at least, and many are curious and will ask questions or give their opinion, clearly they are acclimatising to the idea. I talked to a dealer at the casino and asked if they would accept BCH to buy in some poker chips and she said "No we don't take it yet, but it's just money, so I don't see why we wouldn't." Her words unknowingly echoing the "It's just money bro" commercial made me laugh, and it's very clear that people on the island understand the idea of BCH as a currency foremost (a natural conclusion from seeing the BCH accepted here stickers and people paying in BCH) and not as an investment.

  5. Of course, some (a minority) of locals are regular BCH users, mostly the ones close to the inflowing tourist satoshis or local BCH accepting businesses, but I expect that to spread outwards throughout the economy over time. Many BCH tips were handed out by conference attendees, and locals who weren't interested in accepting BCH at a shop or as a tip would certainly have realised that doing so was directly costing them an opportunity they could have otherwise grabbed because those BCH politely and immediately flowed towards someone else nearby who would accept them.

  6. In hindsight, the conference may have been timed very well at the bottom of the bear market. Coins spent into the economy here were set at a low price, and when the price rises whoever still has some will feel very excited they do.

  7. Groups of conference attendees and local adoption forms a kind of "natural peer-to-peer DEX". At times where a venue would not accept BCH, one willing person could pay in fiat and all the conference people could pay them back in BCH, and even when the venue did accept BCH sometimes 1 person paid the tab and everyone else paid them back afterwards. This was of course smooth as butter between attendees from all around the world, and completely avoided the usual hassle of spare change, "Do you have Paypal?", "Do you use split wise?", "What's your account number?" that this kind of situation usually creates. I also saw several instances of direct BCH for cash trades being made.

  8. In practice, internet connectivity tends to not be a logistical issue. I was a little worried about this, but it actually was fine. Internet on the island is pretty good, although occasionally has sudden dropouts. I had a local SIM card with phone data provided by Sunny (thanks Sunny!) but for people who didn't or had run out of data, either the BCH accepting venues had their own free Wifi (great combo for merchants accepting BCH) or someone else in the group could provide a hotspot. This combined super well with the point 7 about p2p exchange above.

  9. The FTX disaster happening in the background was essentially a non factor in discouraging local adoption, because everyone is using non custodial BCH so is totally unaffected (except to the extent price was briefly down a little bit). I heard some other tourists discussing it though, with one of the group doing a hamfisted job of explaining to his party the difference between FTX and the BCH adoption they were seeing around the island.

  10. I'm really looking forward to coming back next year (BCH23!) and seeing how things progress. It's hard to imagine adoption could ever go in reverse given the seeds of a circular economy and the locals overall friendliness to the concept, but who knows. I can certainly see a bit of positive price action and/or a legal tender announcement leading to a lot of buzz and snowballing adoption fast. Also, every day the people closer to the BCH economy will be getting a relative advantage that is absolutely certain and so it will become more prominent over time.

Great work by everyone involved on the ground here, I am very confident St Kitts has the highest per capita non custodial crypto adoption in the world. I think that's a fair summary and I'm sure other conference attendees can chime in with their experience in the comment section. I will also discuss some of this on an upcoming BCH Podcast episode.


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Daily News Blurb From Bullion Exchanges: Central Banks Expand Their Gold Holdings as Many Countries Shift Away From the West

Excerpt:

"According to strategists from Nikkei Asia (the world's largest financial newspaper), central banks all over the world have increased gold purchases in 2022 after sanctions confiscated overseas Russian assets."

Read More: https://bullionexchanges.com/blog/gold-silver-bitcoin-prices/

​

QUESTION for the Comments: What would a multipolar world look like in the future if the BRICS+ nations achieve their goal?

https://preview.redd.it/6igm2au7fq1a1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9a5a95966c443d51e763c44e152f0767c0f02e3

Every weekday, Bullion Exchanges releases a short, easy-to-digest news summary about events impacting the precious metal and financial industries. Here is a link to our blog posts from previous months: https://bullionexchanges.com/blog/category/daily-market-review-on-precious-metals-price/


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My 25 Year FI Journey

November marks my 25th anniversary working towards financial independence. I hope others might benefit from the observations I gathered over an extended timeframe of perseverance.

I began adulthood with severe anxiety regarding finances.

I developed FIRE-type thinking before FIRE was a commonly understood philosophy. My thinking developed through personal experiences and later through forums such as these. FIRE thinking helped me to overcome an unhealthy fear of becoming destitute while accelerating other life goals that have brought peace, contentment, and happiness to everyday life.

This article documents that journey as a means to give back to a community which has given much to me. I hope it is informative, supportive, and motivating for everyone on their own journey. I will answer questions and offer additional perspective in the comments where possible.

This is a throw away account and certain milestones have been obfuscated to create some semblance of privacy and anonymity, though all financial figures quoted are accurate.

Outline

  1. About Me
  2. My FI Philosophy
  3. Milestones
  4. My Investment Philosophy
  5. My Expense Pattern
  6. My Evolving View Of FI
  7. Lessons & Observations

About Me

I achieved FI in 2017. I have no plans to RE.

I am mid-40s living in a HCOL area. Married with no kids as we prefer partying over parenting.

I grew up in upper lower class economic conditions around military bases. My parents struggled to save money outside of any retirement benefits afforded from their jobs. Frequently being unable to have the trips, food, clothes, and toys that the “other” kids had formed an indelible mark. There have been periods where I have had significant anxiety regarding financial safety.

I work in tech. My wife is an overworked, underpaid social worker.

My career began as a deeply indebted student and after graduation included jobs in training, engineering, product, executive leadership, startup CEO, investing, and governance.

I write a well-read technology blog and authored 3 books that are now irrelevant.

I travel extensively, sometimes for work, sometimes pleasure. I have visited 50 countries. I have a pilot’s license. I own 2 houses, a plane, 2 cars, and a boat.

My FI Philosophy

  1. Live Life Below My Means. I should always be saving money, regardless of what my income level is. As long as I earn a W2 income from a job, my monthly expenses should be (on average) at least 50% below the average after-tax income. This also means that it’s OK to increase my spend on quality of life as my means has increased, though it wasn’t until my 30s before I practiced this without stress. As you'll see, having this policy is easier to state than to always follow.
  2. FI Definition. Because of my youthful anxiety towards money, difficulty in determining what a viable number of years “in retirement” might be, and debates as to what constitutes a Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR), I chose to shape a personal definition. For me, FI is the ability to generate enough income from non-W2 activities such that my annual rate of expenses is covered. Income generation can happen from rents, selling volatility, interest, or dividends. In other words, FI is when my net worth continues to grow with or without traditional W2 income. This philosophy may change one day – either because the net worth pool is large or the expected number of years before death materially shrinks.
  3. Eliminate Debt, Even If It Is An Economic Mistake. After having bought and sold five different homes, I came to realize that the mental stress of having debt outweighed its economic benefits. Starting sometime around 2018, I decided to eliminate all possible debt, even 2% mortgage debt. While the arbitrage of investment results would have yielded a better overall economic outcome by keeping the debt, that financial gain could never be large enough to compensate for the anxiety-neutralizing-feeling of being “debt free”. Whatever I owned was owned by me alone, and in the unlikely event I were to become unemployed or without income, the future of those assets was solely in my control and not in conjunction with a bank. I execute this policy on life assets, such as my primary home and automobile, and toy assets, such as my plane. This, of course, requires a person to have enough assets to cover the debt, and it took me 15 years to achieve this threshold.
  4. Invest To Beat The Market. If I am willing to devote more energy and research time than others (at the cost of fun, family time, etc), then I should be able to make smarter decisions that yield higher results. Split investments into those things which are liquid vs. illiquid. Try to keep most of my available cash in liquid investments. I prefer (and try) to earn equity in illiquid investments through time-based contributions, sweat equity, carried interest, or as a job benefit. This doesn’t always happen, and I have had to outlay cash for angel investments, as a limited partner in a VC fund, and stock purchases for companies I’ve run. Never let others manage our money as they lack incentives to behave as an owner. As you’ll see, lacking this wisdom once cost me $3M in my early career.

Milestones

Year Net Worth Addl Illiquid Assets W2 Income Material Events
1997 -$95,685 $- $14,110 Pizza Delivery
1998 -$88,299 $- $25,906 Graduate Univ.
1999 $25,612 $- $104,155 Footnote #1
2000 $88,843 $2,700,954 $125,543 Emp. Equity! :-)
2001 $247,777 $800,056 $232,223 Dotcom Bust
2002 $294,994 $- $144,987 Footnote #2 :-(
2003 $336,523 $- $283,847 First Home Buy
2004 $384,258 $- $207,411 Sold 1st Startup
2005 $436,189 $15,000 $138,845 1st Angel Investment
2006 $558,473 $15,000 $191,384 2nd Home Buy
2007 $614,038 $15,000 $204,448 3rd Home Buy
2008 $545,783 $15,000 $231,926
2009 $638,926 $15,000 $233,656 Footnote #3 :-(
2010 $1,009,650 $25,000 $427,404
2011 $1,333,754 $100,000 $384,681 Started 2nd Startup
2012 $1,637,200 $104,000 $89,187 Became VC Scout
2013 $1,966,303 $407,703 $255,000
2014 $1,777,266 $1,360,905 $230,000 Sold 1st Angel Investment!
2015 $2,313,846 $5,786,086 $243,750 1st VC Distribution :-)
2016 $2,638,612 $5,210,121 $368,622 Startup Profitable :-)
2017 $6,422,053 $6,162,527 $802,590 Startup Acquired :-)
2018 $6,514,291 $7,805,654 $452,129 Paid Off Mortgages
2019 $8,202,434 $9,895,887 $561,954 3rd CEO Gig
2020 $8,079,164 $6,466,506 $801,151
2021 $7,414,909 $10,658,321 $998,761 Footnote #4 :-(
2022 $10,318,719 $9,457,050 $1,065,001 Strong Investment Returns

Definitions:

  • Net Worth: The value of all assets where I maintain liquidation control less all known or anticipated liabilities. The assets include fixed assets like my home, plane, and automobiles. While they are illiquid, the choice to effect a sale is within my control. The assets also include the net liquidating value of trading accounts, deferred compensation, 401K, IRAs, and checking accounts. The liabilities include any outstanding debts including mortgages and credit along with any future anticipated taxes that would be due from liquidating 401K, IRA or deferred compensation accounts.
  • Additional Illiquid Assets: This is the mark-to-market (ie, my personal best guess) for the carrying value of additional assets for which I am entitled, but for which I have little control as to when or how they may become liquid. These include angel investments, the value of my shares of VC funds for which I am a limited partner, and carried interest for investments that were sourced as a VC scout. This value does not exclude anticipated taxes which is hard to calculate since some taxes are paid in advance of receiving distributions. It’s possible that the tax burden on the remaining distributions could be <20%. It’s possible that all these assets become worthless, but unlikely, as the $9.4M carrying value is spread across more than 3 dozen businesses and about half of those have already been sold or already profitable.
  • W2 Income: The income received by my wife and I from our W2 jobs.

Footnotes:

  1. I had an amazing thing happen about 18 months after university. I was working as a grunt in a consulting firm that had some acquisition interest from a large publicly traded company who was making aggressive moves into an area of technology where I had been tasked. The acquisition was moving fast and the firm needed to produce certain deliverables in a week that would normally require months. I stepped up and found a way to deliver the assets. The consultancy got acquired for what was a great outcome for the founder. Without expectation, he surprised me one day and offered to pay off my remaining $80K in student loans. I was hired by the acquiring company as a domain specialist and they doubled my income to $70K. The feeling can only be described as elation followed by a long cry. It was a powerful lesson in what the value of hard, dedicated work can bring.
  2. The dotcom boom and bust was another high and low time. The company that acquired me gave a nice pool of options. In the matter of a year, those options were worth nearly $4M at one point. It was intoxicating to watch the value increase nearly every day as the Nasdaq skyrocketed. I had cashed out some of the options when they were available, but most I did not. To make matters worse, I decided to exercise and hold a good chunk of the options which means that taxes were due on the paper profits. I ended up selling a bunch of options to pay those taxes to the tune of nearly $400K. At the time I was unaware of steps that I could take to protect the value of the options that were unvested or that insurance was available which could lock in their value. If I had known that I could spend 10-15% of the value of the options to lock in their value, I would have done it. But I was young and naïve and believing that stocks only go up. The company I was in had a public high of $98 and by the time the dotcom crash had settled they were down to $4. I was able to sell some of the options and netted a profit of around $300K and the government got to hold onto that $400K in early tax payments. It wouldn’t be until the financial crash in 2009 where I could finally reclaim most of these early tax payments to use as a deduction against income (see the next footnote).
  3. The financial crisis of 2008-2010 was a difficult time. I was sitting on three homes, had overpaid for the last home, and had mortgages on all three. When the housing crisis kicked in, I was nearly $750K under water across the three properties. You’ll note that my net worth somehow increased. I saved my bacon through research and a little help from the government. Turns out that if you can get a valid short sale offer in California then the bank will eat the losses on the underwater part of the mortgage. And further, Congress passed a law in 2008 or 2009 that allowed taxpayers to write off the loss for up to two years (the $750K mortgage write off is normally taxed as income). It effectively allowed me to sell two of the homes, walk away from the mortgages, and not owe any taxes. This turned into one boost to my net worth as I was starting to carry the losses against the net worth. The consequence was a massive hit to my credit which lasted 7 years. I had no plans to open new credit cards in that time frame, so felt like a good compromise. The other boost to the net worth was the final reconciliation of what happened in Footnote 2, where Congress allowed taxpayers to take any pre-paid taxes from previous years and to deduct 50% of what’s remaining each of the next two years. This dramatically reduced the income on which I owed taxes, gave me a huge refund for two years, and then boosted the net worth.
  4. While the stock market had one of its best years in a decade in 2021, it was one of my worst trading years at -21%. For reasons that will be described in future sections, most of my trading for IRAs and trading accounts (~85% of my liquid assets), are traded by selling volatility which is somewhat anti-correlated to buy-and-hold. Strong, unrelenting bull markets that have no price relief are difficult for this style of trading to do well and, thus, the performance hit. In spite of this negative performance, the year was a positive net worth year because of distributions from VC funds, the surprise sale of two angel investments, and a small secondary event (the opportunity to sell a portion of my equity) from the company for which I currently run.

My Investment Philosophy

Here are the cumulative returns across my investment accounts, 401K, and IRAs. These are all investments where I personally direct and control the nature of how the funds should be deployed.

Year Return Material Events
1997 0%
1998 0%
1999 17.8% 401k
2000 9.5%
2001 (5.9%)
2002 1.4%
2003 7.8% Open first trading account
2004 5.9%
2005 16.2% Hired money manager
2006 12.9%
2007 14.2%
2008 (32.1%) Fired money manager
2009 31.1%
2010 2.1%
2011 12.9% Started volatility selling
2012 24.39% >80% of investable assets now in volatility selling
2013 3.93%
2014 (8.3%)
2015 57.5%
2016 24.04%
2017 (.6%)
2018 (.1%)
2019 32.7%
2020 (2.8%)
2021 (31.3%) Horrible year for volatility selling
2022 62.9% Great year for volatility selling

My investment philosophy has shifted over 25 years. My current approach, which was enacted in its fullest amount in 2012, involves:

  1. 401K. Maximize my participation and get any employer match. These funds go into a fairly conservative 2030 fund which is mostly bonds a little bit of stocks. This currently accounts for 8% of my liquid investable net worth.
  2. IRA. Whenever I leave one job, I immediately rollover any 401K funds into a non-ROTH IRA. This accounts for 22% of my investable funds. The IRA trades by selling volatility through iron condors against broad-based indexes like NDX or SPX.
  3. Cash. I rotate my checking and emergency cash by investing into tbills, treasuries, and ibonds through Treasury Direct. This has yielded 0.2% to 5% depending upon how interest rates are fluctuating. I mostly do 8 week short term rollovers. It slows in the winter to make any cash needed for taxes available. This equates to 9% of my liquid investable assets.
  4. Brokerage. This is all of my other investable liquid assets. The brokerage trades by selling volatility through naked leveraged strangles in a portfolio margin account. This was a strategy that I developed a long time ago after spending dozens of weekends reading and learning about options. Selling volatility isn’t for the faint of heart, but if managed well you can reliably return 16% / year while assuming above average, but not “destroy you” risk. Over the years, I have tried to ‘tweak’ how I sell volatility to boost the returns and this generally has backfired. In 2020 during the down turn I decided to alter the approach in a way which would penalize me if the market were to climb aggressively. And, well, that is what it did for 18 months and I took it on the chin. Selling volatility is very good in soft down and flat markets, such as what we are experiencing in 2022. And, thus, it’s been a spectacular year of returns. While there are no guarantees of the future, I expect to moderate how volatility is sold so that I can more reliably return 15% / year with fewer massive up / down years: ie, lower returns with lower results volatility.

If you have done the math, I have 83% of my investable liquid assets in volatility, which is leveraged, and higher risk. It’s also generally anti-correlated to the stock market. In years that the market does well, volatility will not do as well. Why? A few reasons: a) My job and illiquid assets are heavily correlated to how the NASDAQ will perform with many factors beyond my control, b) volatility is a form of anti-correlation to most of my assets creating a blended return which (over time) adds to a combined net worth, c) I am a horrible public markets stock picker; almost every buy-and-hold bet I make doesn’t yield good results; selling volatility is an approach that allows me to not have to make a judgement on fair value or price of the index; therefore it is programmatic in what is needed rather than having to endlessly study 1000s of public market companies to make investment bets.

If 30-year treasuries ever breach 10% again like in the 70s, I will put everything I have into them and call it a day. No need to deal with selling volatility if that scenario plays out. Yes, inflation would be monstrous in that scenario, but it would be nice to know that a 10% rate of return is guaranteed for 30 years. And chances are the value of those debt instruments will increase over that time frame yielding a total return higher than 10%.

As mentioned previously, even if my expectation for selling volatility is 18% / year on average, then it would economically make sense to have a mortgage or HELOC on my properties, especially when their interest rate was <2%. The arbitrage on a $1M mortgage is over 15% / year and that is before you factor the mortgage interest tax deduction. In my 20s and 30s, this would have been a must-do imperative. Unfortunately, it took me 20 years to realize that the financial gain from the arbitrage doesn’t cover the mental stress of having debt with a creditor who takes a senior lien position.

My Expense Pattern

I’ve tried to structure my “run rate” expenses to comfortable sit below my after tax W2 income. Investment gains and other assets generally should not be sourced for funding the normal lifestyle of which I live. My wife and I are generally minimalists, though for the few things we own or experience, we are comfortable in purchasing a premium product or experience. This especially includes vacations, for which we will attempt to do one 4 week trip every few years, and a number of 5 day and 8 day trips each year.

I consider my “run rate” expenses to include mortgages, insurance, food, fuel, utilities, vacations, furniture, electronics, medical bills, clothes, jewelry. Generally, anything that we need to spend money on that isn’t considered an investment or necessary for us to live.

To better reflect the spending patterns, I am excluding any lump sum payments such as a down payment made for a mortgage. The reverse is also true, excluding any lump sum payment received when selling a home.

My historical tax rate has been ~32% across federal and state taxes after netting out any credits and deductions. I’ve been generally tax inefficient during my income years as I’ve always seen that the steps necessary to lower the tax rate meaningfully were too much of an inconvenience to warrant the potential gains. I expect our effective tax rate to inch towards 38% in the coming years.

​

Year Expenses % W2 Income Comments
1997 $12,555 89% College years
1998 $22,194 86%
1999 $42,904 41%
2000 $47,777 38%
2001 $41,150 18%
2002 $55,208 38%
2003 $106,086 37% Mortgages add up
2004 $139,899 67%
2005 $84,790 61%
2006 $72,874 38%
2007 $106,163 52%
2008 $118,023 51%
2009 $104,085 45%
2010 $192,593 45% Expensive vacations
2011 $190,074 49%
2012 $168,302 189% $0 startup salary for 6 months.
2013 $180,788 71% 4 intl vacations
2014 $155,078 67%
2015 $188,987 78%
2016 $185,309 50%
2017 $201,109 25% Lifestyle creep
2018 $267,725 59% Pilot training is expensive
2019 $204,598 36% Paid off mortgages
2020 $97,512 12% COVID lock down == little spend
2021 $134,398 13% Paid off plane mortgage
2022 $167,189 16%

My Work History

I only consistently made $250K of W2 income starting in 2016. At this time, my net worth was $2.6M with another $5.2M in illiquid assets. Our average income over those previous 16 years was $235K with 8 years making less than $200K. While $200K is a very generous income and above the average of most people, my key point is that the combined net worth of $7.8M is far above the $3.8M in taxable income earned over that same period.

A persistent, hard working family that chooses to spend below their earnings that intelligently invests their savings is able to build significant worth beyond the limits of what their job provides.

Like the stock market, my career has its ups and downs.

Interestingly, it’s marked by a number of short stints interspersed among long stints. I’ve worked in large publicly traded companies and as employee #1 in a startup. In my 25-year working career, the longest period of not having a W2 paying job has been 3 months.

I have only maintained a single W2 paying job at one time. I am, however, allowed to simultaneously angel invest, be a VC scout, sit on boards, and consult for companies across the tech ecosystem while I perform my primary function as employee. All of these additional activities help to build my portfolio of additional illiquid assets. I am earning sweat equity rather than having to outlay significant cash to build these positions.

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Period Role Comments
1997-2003 Engineer, Tech Expert Joined 15-person startup, acquired by public company after 12 months, multiple geeky roles at the acquirer.
2003-2004 CEO Ran a 10-person consulting company specializing in geekery. Fire sale acquisition by another consulting company & I was not hired.
2004 Product Joined a hot data startup to run product. Culture fail as the founder was a jerk. Quit after 1 week. This company eventually sold 2 years later for $900M! It would have been a big payday. No regrets, though.
2005-2011 Product Mid-sized, fast growing public company.
2011 Product VP @ very large public company. Reported to famous visionary. Resigned after 3 months (famous person was a jerk). Offered $1M / yr to stay and declined. No regrets, though.
2011-2017 CEO Started tech company. Sold to a large public company. Almost bankrupt 3 times before finding fit, growing revenues, and becoming profitable.
2017-2019 GM Ran $100M business unit that included my startup for the company that acquired us.
2019-2022 CEO Hired as CEO of private company. 500 employees, profitable, setting sights on $100M in revs.

My Evolving View Of Financial Independence

While young, my view of financial worth was measured by net worth. “Will I ever be worth 1 MILLION dollars?!?”, as if that number held a magical quality that, if achieved, suddenly made one financially well-off. The day I became a millionaire was anti-climatic other than the entertainment value of seeing two commas on my tracking sheet. And that financial milestone was quickly discarded in favor of achieving the next million because I didn’t feel safe / stable / protected with just having one. And then the next one, and next one after that.

Net worth is not a good way to quantify your financial independence.

I’m familiar with the 4% SWR, and it’s always struck me as a challenging measure of whether someone has the financial means to retire early. There are too many challenges: how long do you live, changing macro conditions, unknowns about social safety nets, and so on. But even worse, the 4% SWR is a model where, generally, your net worth is likely to decline over those years depending upon how the investment portfolio performs.

As a way to deal with this anxiety, I’ve shifted my definition of financial independence to be defined by my ability to continue living my current lifestyle through gains made from investable assets. For 2023, this limited view would generate ~$600K (after netting taxes) for spending against a lifestyle run rate which is effectively $200K.

Selling volatility has a lot of risk associated since it is leveraged. A financial independence definition that depends upon leveraged risk introduces some peace of mind issues. This is the definition I currently use in order to claim that I am financially independent.

However, I also track a definition of financial independence that is virtually risk free: FI is when my run rate of life expenses is below the interest that can be earned from buying 30-year treasuries. At 4% yield this would generate ~$190K after taxes. The net after tax payments would benefit from not having state income tax and our family being in a lower average tax bracket. With my life expenses under $200K due to a lack of mortgage, I am currently bumping along on this threshold. Half of my annual expenses are vacations and luxury items (plane maintenance is not cheap) which could easily be eliminated if we decided we wanted to retire early and spend well under the interest generated threshold.

But we won’t.

We will probably carry on because we love our work. As our investable assets increase, we will allow lifestyle creep wine, vacations, and hobbies over the coming years.

Lessons and Observations

  1. Perseverance Yields Results. Having a long history of steady savings can lead to big outcomes. While the sale of my company did create a boost in my wealth, the benefit of compounding savings over decades has lead to a greater contribution to the overall wealth. I’ve never been one to chase quick profits or fads (crypto, though I do own $2K of Bitcoin), and instead see that the professional and technology skills that I can acquire through self-study and life experiences pay larger dividends than with gambling investments.
  2. Always Have A Project. Whether it’s becoming an expert in a new technology, learning the nuances of how strategic business development is orchestrated, or earning a pilot’s license, having 2-3 ongoing passion projects creates contentment, builds worldly skills, and opens work / financial opportunities that I was not seeking or aware of.
  3. Culturally Fail Fast. I’ve been in 4 work scenarios where there was a culture mismatch. Either the people around were unpleasant or there was a limited interest in peers to socially connect. Get out of those situations as fast as possible, within days if necessary. I’ve been fortunate to listen to my inner voice and the longest I was in an unpleasant environment was 9 months. In two of these fail fast scenarios, had I stayed for more than 4 years, I would have earned more than $5M in each scenario. They were economic mistakes but like successes.
  4. Peace Of Mind Matters More Than Profit. It took me the better part of my young adulthood, but I sleep peacefully by structuring my finances and earnings in such a way where I have the maximal peace of mind given my risk tolerance. The things that eat at me would be consistently having expenses above my income and a financial independence strategy that required my net worth to decline due to withdrawals.
  5. Over Sacrificing Will Sabotage Important Relationships. Being aggressive in your career and sacrificing time with family, friends, and lovers hasn’t created enough of leapfrog in my FI journey that warrants the cost (often sabotage) that will come to those relationships. I was a relentless worker in my early years. Now I am a wise worker with a structured balance between work and play.
  6. Maintain A War Time Mindset With Investing. Invest assuming that your worst-case nightmare scenario will happen. With this mindset, every investment has risk mitigations (both in my mindset and structurally). By thinking this way, you will be prepared emotionally and skill wise to act when negative scenarios occur. I used to be apprehensive about selling volatility with reasonable risk. It requires me to do things such as selling naked calls. Most traders hear the oft repeated words, "naked calls have unlimited loss potential!" and immediately run for the hills. I worked for months to avoid ever having a naked call go in the money as that would be the nightmare. Well, one time it happened, they were in the money, and I was frozen. But the nightmare was much worse in my dreams, learned how to trade out of it, and recognized that trading as if everything was always in the money made everything easier to absorb. So that is how I invest and trade - it's war time, nothing will go right, and have a plan for every possible contingency.

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Idea for backing up keys safely

Quick bit of background, Im a college student who's been in crypto seriously for about a year, so don't sledge me too hard :)

Hi I've noticed that a lot of people on this sub are hesitant to get into Bitcoin in the fear that they'll lose their ledger, chuck paper into the bin etc.

The fundamental difference between this and the fiat system is custody over keys and one of the big barriers IMO is people being afraid to store their own keys. So I've come up with an "insurance" protocol for your keys.

Essentially, I want to know what people think about an open source protocol idea I have. Simply speaking its a way to back up your keys by encrypting them with information only know would know and then storing this on the blockchain.

A basic illustration could be, I could take my keys encrypt them with my bank details, passport number mothers maiden name etc. and store that (on chain). I would also have some record of what I have used for the encryption i.e.e mothers name bla bla bla.

Obviously the stuff you encrypt it with has to be stuff you won't forget in 50 years and that only you should know (I have a list of such things)

The motivation for this to have a copy of keys accessible should you lose a hardware wallet, change pc, metamask goes down etc or any black swan events like this - but it could be a good backup.

In theory, if this all comes together, there will a copy of your keys sitting immutably on some blockchain so you will never really lose your crypto if you lose your hardware wallet etc... in my head this would reduce some of the stress associated with holding your keys because you won't be worried you will lose them if you can always recover them. You can also store them more securely-i.e. you won't feel the need to put them in a notes app (which is important if you lose your HWW), because you can always get to your Bitcoin through this means.


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Wednesday, 23rd November 2022

The Daily Spin. World Cup Wednesday Edition. Argentina token ($ARG) takes a 30% hit following the loss against Saudi Arabia, whose NFT project saw gains of 38%. LTC, MATIC and XRP buck the market downtrend ahead of SHIB. FTX was being investigated for months before the collapse, and not only were the authorities unable to stop the crisis from happening; they also let Ms. Fried and Mr. Bankman mop up $121m in Bahamas Real Estate. DCG is clearly in trouble despite denials, CZ takes a pass on Genesis — while also denying rumors of a fundraising attempt in Dubai. More than 50% of all Bitcoin holders are now in the red, but long-term holders are accumulating. BitPanda secures German license. Microsoft invests in a South Korean gaming firm, and JPMorgan is awarded a patent on their crypto-wallet …all of this and more inside our round-up of curated news and opinions (surely biased) from the world of Blockchain, keeping you informed of the most trending, in-the-know, and controversial topics. In the name of transparent, information dissemination to keep you curious, inspired, and clinically sane…

Ongoings at Coinweb

“Understanding the Great Crypto Tradeoff” by Toby Gilbert
https://dailyhodl.com/2022/11/16/understanding-the-great-crypto-tradeoff/

“The Time is Now for Blockchain” article on Times of Malta
https://timesofmalta.com/articles/view/time-now-blockchain-a2.994854

Toby’s full presentation at Token2049-London
https://youtu.be/pdtKx3vAs9c

Latest Video Release: Why Crypto Will Always Come Back (4mins)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Yl8Vwu4iNM

The EU Strategy for Cryptoassets – London
https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/crowdfunding-event/the-eu-strategy-for-cryptoassets-london/

Cryptomanran (CryptoBanter) comes by Coinweb booth at Token2049
https://youtu.be/RSZ3szjBHa0?t=779

Digital Assets Week, Nov 15-16
Toby joins “Tech for Institutional Grade Digital Assets” Panel with R3 and State Street
https://coinweb.io/events/london-invasion-part-2-digital-assets-week/

“Overlay Networks in Blockchain” thread published by Kawin on Twitter
https://twitter.com/rukawin/status/1585548192761856000?s=46&t=7I6cq6_CPaQuHqwEBk0wTg

Coinweb Fireside Chat Series, “Happy Halloweb3” Oct 27 (Bangkok)
Panel Discussion Audio Recording Feat. Coinbase, Binance, and McKinsey (47mins):
https://open.spotify.com/episode/175CCj57qgfy8Hd5Ft5poy?si=h4WghWcOQnutGohTrDcGNA

'Bridging The Gap Between Speculation And Fundamental Value In Digital Assets' at the Vietnam Blockchain Summit 2022
https://t.co/fvordozLxZ

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On the Radar

Crypto AM Summit and Awards, Nov 23-24 (London)
https://www.cityam.com/camsa22/

DSLA Protocol for Tezos (facilitates onboarding of enterprises to ecosystem), Nov 24

Blockchain Genesis Thailand 2022 - Road to Web3, Nov 26-27 (Bangkok)

It’s OK to Meetup Bangkok 2022, Nov 27 (Bangkok)
https://www.eventpop.me/e/14033/cmth

Sub0 Polkadot Dev Conference, Nov 28-29 (Lisbon)

Global Blockchain Expo, Dec 1-2 (London)
https://blockchain-expo.com/global/

The EU Strategy for Cryptoassets, Dec 5 (London)
https://ecorys.idloom.events/the-eu-strategy-for-cryptoassets/pages/programme

RadFi2022, Dec 8 (Virtual)

World Blockchain Summit, Dec 8-9 (Bangkok)
https://worldblockchainsummit.com/bangkok/

World Crypto Conference, Jan 13-15 (Zurich)
https://worldcryptoconference.org/

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On the Block(chain)

Prosecutors investigated FTX for months before collapse: Bloomberg
https://www.theblock.co/post/188890/prosecutors-investigated-ftx-for-months-before-collapse-bloomberg?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Exclusive: Bankman-Fried's FTX, parents bought Bahamas property worth $121 million
https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-bankman-frieds-ftx-parents-bought-bahamas-property-worth-121-mln-2022-11-22/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

More Than 50% of Bitcoin Addresses Are Now in Loss
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/21/more-than-50-of-bitcoin-addresses-are-now-in-loss/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Litecoin bucks market downtrend, posting 19% gains to pass Shiba Inu
https://cryptoslate.com/litecoin-bucks-market-downtrend-posting-19-gains-to-pass-shiba-inu/

Two arrested in Estonia for $575 million crypto fraud
https://www.theblock.co/post/189014/two-arrested-in-estonia-for-575-million-crypto-fraud

Crypto market liquidity dries up following Alameda and FTX collapse
https://www.theblock.co/post/188845/crypto-market-liquidity-dries-up-following-alameda-and-ftx-collapse?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Silbert downplays liquidity crisis, expects $800M revenue in 2022 for DCG
https://cryptoslate.com/digital-currency-group-ceo-barry-silbert-downplays-ftx-impact-on-genesis-expects-800m-revenue-in-2022/

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Competitive Landscape

JPMorgan Chase Crypto Wallet Trademark Is Approved
https://cryptobriefing.com/jpmorgan-chase-crypto-wallet-trademark-is-approved/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Cardano Plans Privacy-Focused Blockchain And A New Stablecoin
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rosemariemiller/2022/11/22/cardano-plans-privacy-focused-blockchain-and-a-new-stablecoin/?utm_medium=browser_notifications&utm_source=pushly&utm_campaign=2504646&sh=5a61d52a62b7

Binance will not invest in crypto lender Genesis: WSJ
https://www.theblock.co/post/188956/binance-will-not-invest-in-crypto-lender-genesis-wsj?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

NFT utility platform Tropee raises $5 million led by Tioga Capital: Exclusive
https://www.theblock.co/post/188971/nft-utility-platform-tropee-raises-5-million-led-by-tioga-capital-exclusive

Microsoft’s latest web3 investment is in South Korean gaming firm Wemade
https://www.theblock.co/post/182099/microsofts-latest-web3-investment-is-in-south-korean-gaming-firm-wemade

Bitpanda secures German crypto license
https://www.theblock.co/post/188986/bitpanda-secures-german-crypto-license

​

World

Vitalik Buterin: Bitcoin Fans 'Ignored' El Salvador's Undemocratic Government
https://decrypt.co/115188/vitalik-buterin-bitcoin-fans-ignored-el-salvadors-undemocratic-government

Argentina ARG token drop 30% following shock defeat in world cup match
https://cryptoslate.com/argentina-arg-token-drop-30-following-shock-defeat-in-world-cup-match/

Binance CZ denies Bloomberg report of Abu Dhabi fundraising attempt
https://cryptoslate.com/binance-cz-denies-bloomberg-report-of-abu-dhabi-fundraising-attempt/

Craig Wright creates ambiguity over Satoshi posts on BitcoinTalk forum
https://cryptoslate.com/craig-wright-creates-ambiguity-over-satoshi-posts-on-bitcointalk-forum/

Violent Protests Erupt at Apple’s Biggest IPhone Plant in China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-23/violent-protests-erupt-at-apple-s-biggest-iphone-plant-in-china

Tech Watchdog Demands U.K. Antitrust Investigation Of Amazon’s iRobot Buyout
https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardnieva/2022/11/22/amazon-irobot-roomba-foxglove-antitrust/?utm_medium=browser_notifications&utm_source=pushly&utm_campaign=2503364&sh=3d00ba381c73

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Thought Leadership

A Letter From E.G. Galano, Co-Founder of Infura
https://blog.infura.io/post/a-letter-from-infura-co-founder-on-decentralization

Tokeny Has Solved the Problem of Gas Fees
https://tokeny.com/tokeny-has-solved-the-problem-of-gas-fees/

Crypto Liquidity in a Post-Alameda World
https://blog.kaiko.com/crypto-liquidity-in-a-post-alameda-world-5fb2c190f0b

Vitalik Buterin 2017: The Meaning of Decentralization
https://medium.com/@VitalikButerin/the-meaning-of-decentralization-a0c92b76a274

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https://preview.redd.it/q0qvluo5sn1a1.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3342a531c3e657dd32333dd83fe1a95017dc82b


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