Bitcoin pulse, guides and news: 01/06/22

Thursday, January 6, 2022

The Unconfiscatable “Bitcoin Not Blockchain” Conference is back for its 3rd year! Taking over downtown Las Vegas for a weekend of fun, networking, and love for all things bitcoin. This two day conference will be dedicated to Bitcoin, Finance, Economics, Investing, and Technology. Our festivities will continue throughout the weekend with a 4 star Bitcoin Carnivory Dinner, High Stakes BTC Texas HODLem’ Poker Tournament, Scammy Awards Show, After Party, Axe Throwing, and more, as well as multiple educational workshops.

There will be no promotions of altcoins, ICOs, banks, and other blockchain-based nonsense. Unconfiscatable is dedicated to Bitcoin! Bitcoin lovers and plenty of toxic maximalists will all be there.

We will feature high-profile speakers from all around the world with different backgrounds and expertise. Technical engineers, analysts, traders, venture capitalists, cybersecurity professionals, business owners, bestselling authors and other Bitcoin evangelists who will be featured in our high-level keynotes, fireside chats, and illuminating panels.

Previous Unconfiscatable speakers included Adam Back, Saifedean Ammous, Max Keiser, Jack Mallers, Stacy Herbert, Peter Todd, Jimmy Song, Giacomo Zucco, Trace Mayer, Murad Mahmudov, Peter McCormack, Tone Vays, Willy Woo, Dan Held, Jack Mallers, Leah Wald, MIR, Dan Held, Colleen Sullivan, Jon Najarian, Johnny Dilley, Adella Toulon, Ugly Old Goat, NVK, Alex Mascioli, Jan Capek, and more.

We’re back this year with another killer lineup! Many more surprises to be announced.

Starting on March 3rd, we will have a FREE sponsor expo and demo sessions from 1-5PM. This is a great way to check in early, see scheduled demos from sponsors, and hang out if you’re in town!

Later that evening is our Texas HODL’em Bitcoin Poker Tournament! This is a Casino Organized & Structured poker game with a 0.01 Bitcoin Buy-in taking place at 7:00 PM. The tournament is limited to 100 seats only. Full Breakdown of payouts for final table will be made available at the event and in the telegram group for players. There will be 2 celebrity bounties. The tournament is a lot of fun and an incredible opportunity to network with others in the industry. Sure to sell out fast with only 100 seats available and at least 25 seats reserved for influential personalities in the Bitcoin space. The tournament will have a professional director and randomized seating so you never know who will join you at your starting table. Previous players included: Doug Polk, Phil Laak, Jennifer Tilly, Jimmy Song, Bobby Lee, Tone Vays and many more names you love or hate.

Friday March 4th, is the first day of our conference! The Unconfiscatable Conference will be a Bitcoin event you don’t want to miss. We are bringing you high profile speakers from the world of Bitcoin to discuss the technology with emphasis on both scalability and privacy. Full day conference with solo presentation, fireside chats and panel discussions. Taking place once again at the D Hotel in downtown Las Vegas.

This is followed by a 4 star Bitcoin Carnivory Dinner taking place in the historic courtroom at the world famous Mob Museum. 7 PM Cocktail hour with the dinner to follow at 8 PM. Guests will have full private access to the Mob Museum.

Saturday March 5th, is the second day of our conference! This will conclude with a killer after-party featuring the “Tone Vays’ Scammy Awards.” Always lots of fun and the “Troll Table” will be in the house with commentary!

Sunday March 6th, we’ll be over at Neonopolis at 1 PM for an Axe Throwing Tournament, Bowling and some fun and games! For anyone still standing after an amazing Bitcoin ONLY Sin City Weekend.

There will also be optional educational workshops throughout the weekend. Tickets can be bought with Bitcoin or fiat on the official site: https://www.unconfiscatable.com/

Sponsorship Inquiries, Media Partnerships, Press Requests and anything else should be directed to [Unconfiscatable@Protonmail.com](mailto:Unconfiscatable@Protonmail.com)

Hope to see you there!

Venting - Finally found a group that seems like they'll understand me

Hello friends,

My name is Sam and I've been a finance geek for as long as I can remember. When I was 10 years old, my dad made me a custodial eTrade account and suggested a few REALLY bad stocks, that, in retrospect, we're totally part of the .com bubble. I went on to study finance in college and spent countless hours studying financial bubbles, investment strategy, pricing models, etc. I then got a job at Morgan Stanley working in equity operations before I quit to become a full time entrepreneur.

Honestly, I'm really no expert, I've never claimed to be. The world of finance is always growing and changing and is really dynamic and challenging. There is SOOOO much I don't know and I don't understand. I've made some terrible investment decisions in my life and even to this day. This is why it is so fucking frustrating living in this day and age. I've spent my entire life reading the Wall Street Journal, following the markets, picking stocks, PREACHING the efficient market hypothesis, albeit, usually, to deaf ears. If fully believe that for the most part, markets are efficient, and there is no real way for any person to use charts or magic or whatever to make consistent predictions. My strategy is to slowly buy fractional shares of SPY and not really touch my portfolio. SURE, sometimes there are speculative bets I come across that seem fun, And I buy and sell, but I know and understand its for fun. and if they tank , they tank, and if they go "to the moon" I'm very humble and never really brag about it or talk about it or anything because I understand that that puts other people in an uncomfortable position and could lead someone to make poor choices based on my statistical anomaly.

Anyway... sorry for the long background. What I want to get across is, it's so hard to be a finance geek in the day and age because so many people are just regurgitating bad information they see on TikTok or twitter or wherever... and that bad part is... for now, they think they're right.. the prices have gone up, and these people are totally falling for both the confirmation and availability bias... do me a favor, go on twitter or google or even right here on reddit right now. type in bitcoin. What pops up? It's almost always a slew of 10Xers people bragging about their gains, not so humble teenage prodigy touting the newest coin or meme. Telling people to hold for dear life. You can rarely find anything on the contrary. I've been searching for bitcoin skeptics for months on every and any platform and have found a handful. I literally just found this group after months of searching "bitcoin skeptic" on reddit. These technoplatform algorithms are showing what is the most engaging and popular news ( what else is new) and are definitely not allowing users to see the whole picture. To see that there is a world of very valid skeptics out there. Skeptics who hold advanced degrees, financial licenses, and even Nobel prizes .

Search bitcoin on YouTube. There are Thousands of videos with Millions of views that for the most part are all bullish. Professor Carol Alexander's videos about crypto skepticism, have 500 views. not with a k, just 500, presumably, just from her students that needed to view them. I'm assuming the reason for this disconnect is the fact that, Actually understanding bitcoin, cryptocurrency, and it's risks is inherently boring. Carols videos, while super informative, are confusing and hard to sit through. It's so much easier for someone to watch a 1 minute video of some guy yelling with laser beams coming out of his eyes and telling you to buy and hold and blah blah fucking blah.

We're officially in the age where information is dead. Those with actual knowledge to share are pushed to the wayside in lieu of someone who is better looking, fast talking, and confident. It's sad but its the reality were living in. and until anything changes, I think people are going to keep falling prey to this very bad availability bias and will keep believing what the algorithms feed them. Any attempt to reason with these people, or explain to them legitimate, scientific, economic principals is futile. It is with a heavy heart that I have completely given up on even talking about finance at family event or when out with friends. When the conversation comes up, I just stay silent. I'm sorry, but I cant be a part of this stupid little game anymore.

Bitcoin Conference! UNCONFISCATABLE 2022 is ON SALE, March 3rd-6th Las Vegas

unconfiscatable.com

https://preview.redd.it/nsanogvt86a81.png?width=1554&format=png&auto=webp&s=d5c24f56f5348a0446754eb3a2279f224b90c7a9

There will be no promotions of altcoins, ICOs, banks, and other blockchain-based nonsense. Unconfiscatable is dedicated to Bitcoin! Bitcoin lovers and plenty of toxic maximalists will all be there.

We’re back this year with another killer lineup! Many more surprises to be announced.

Starting on March 3rd, we will have a FREE sponsor expo and demo sessions from 1-5PM. This is a great way to check in early, see scheduled demos from sponsors, and hang out if you’re in town!

There will also be optional educational workshops throughout the weekend. Tickets can be bought with Bitcoin or fiat on the official site: https://www.unconfiscatable.com/

Sponsorship Inquiries, Media Partnerships, Press Requests and anything else should be directed to [Unconfiscatable@Protonmail.com](mailto:Unconfiscatable@Protonmail.com)

Hope to see you there!

01-06-2022 Market Update

0.0 MARKET OUTLOOK:

TS: 3:10pm pst (will update as time permits)

Holiday related concerns are history.

Crypto Market has dipped again, wee wee hour fire sales back. Market stable, but volatility increasing.

Am I surprised? No. We got some black swan FED speak out of Skynet Central, and that has been preflagged in these Outlooks for quite a while. It happened. It can happen again. So episodic non trending volatility occurs, and my guess is it will dissipate quickly as it most often does. Rinse and Repeat. That FED speak is narrative (buy the rumor)....we'll see if it ends up getting delivered (sell the news).

Looking for slow grind up trend (not to be confused with "day"), from here. Reason: relative bargains abound with huge cash hordes on sidelines seeking a place to go, (FOMO is almost as strong as gravity).

Interest rates headed up, going to kill a market that runs crazy gains like Crypto?

Um: NO.

Do the math! What does single digit interest have to do with potential triple digit gains? (Very little.)

They laughed at Saylor when he borrowed $ at 6.5% interest in Q1 2021 to buy more bitcoin. Had he sold at any 2021 ATH (3 total), he would have killed that! And yet they laugh-and yet he buys more on the dips.

6.5% meant nothing, and FED interest is going nowhere near there!

How do the geniuses that posit such nonsensical narrative, pencil that one out different? (You got me!)

Can higher interest rates hurt the performance of something like the S&P that might on average rise <15%/year? Yes! Why? Look at how closely related the numbers are: single digit interest rates are a very material portion of a very low double digit average gain. But THAT meager gain is not the environ of the cryptoverse, where ~9%/yr is available on stable coin irregardless.

The play today is the same: short scalp longs near supports, dump them at resistances, and short the wild extension breakout ducks-cover as they test old resistance/new support. Rinse and repeat.

1.0 MARKET UP FACTORS:

Bubble "Gone" (stuff is on relative sale-so 'price up!' probability is de facto higher)

Huge amount of cash on the sidelines seeking a place to go to work.

The 8000lb Gorilla Event In The Room (the Fed Speaky), is O-V-E-R.....markets are still adjusting!

Broader Markets slammed to running sideways-relevant correlations all absent, (\see chart at item 5.1)*

VIX Still Semi Sideways With Some Chop, still nothing scary in view*

VIX of VIX doing ditto, nothing scary in view (*but as noted that will change this week, and indeed has)

Wee Wee Hour Fire Sales Back But Reasonable In Range-for now (=markets stable)

Seasonality (January Pattern for General Purchasing is in tact)-see chart in item 5.9.

DOW THEORY Signal 100% Positive (general 'risk on' orientation ok)-but w/secondary reaction warning

Covid Fears Stable-Lockdown Damage Potential Stable (low political will here in the world landscape)

Hedge Fund Positioning Trend Reversal Now Sideways (=slight market up signal, see item 5.2 chart)

2.0 MARKET DOWN FACTORS:

FED Taper said to be more aggressive than thought & interest rates to rise ( a "surprise black swan")

Hedge Funds Are Heavy Short, Institutionals Turning Down (=market down/nervous, see item 5.2 chart)

Covid Fear Based Volatility Potential = High, and now increasing (yields 'risk off' anti FOMO sentiment)

Broader Market Sentiment Trend is 'risk off', see cutesy chart at item 5.3, and this piece: https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/rk719b/the_80000_lb_gorilla_ever_in_any_market_room/

3.0 MY SCALP TRADE POSITIONING: (unchanged-and working very well)

Long Bias.

Shorts-"duck hunt"* shorts sought actively, (*ie: "over priced" shorts on wild pumper action).

No Meme Coin Longs (hopium has flagged and may stay weak/risk off in this sector)

Small Range/Shorter Parry Advisable (tight choppy market not likely to run far here)

4.0 TARGETS I PREFER: (unchanged & working well, may need to switch out some horses in 2022)

4.1) Solid Industrial FAAMNG type value stuff that has not run way up recently, (or if it has, dips huge\*);*

ADA, ALGO, AVAX**, ATOM, BNB, DOT, FIL, LUNA**, ONE, SOL, UNI, ===>(all long)

4.2) Solid project small cap stuff that has been beaten down;

AKT, AUDIO, DVPN, CAKE, KCS, CELO, CTK, FTM, HBAR, SRM, VGX, ===>(all long)

4.3) META & Exchange Buzz small cap stuff with some cap mojo that is being FOMO bid and "influenced";

CRO, MANA, SAND....(long & short, TA signal dependent)

4.4) Duck Hunts (short targets)

AAVE, AVAX, CELO, LUNA, YFI

5.0 RANDOM CHARTS OF INTEREST TO NOTE

5.1 Broader Market Correlations

Little Change, Little Correlation

5.2 Fast $ vs Slow $ Positioning

No Change

5.3 The "Are We Having Fun"-O-Meter

Big Change In Fear Here! (lions and tigers and bears-oh my)

Everything just got way scarier-like Freddie Kruger is now renting our basement room......

5.4 Volume

Dip Buying Happening!

Dip buyers no longer snoozing this market "correction"......

5.5 Largest Cap Trend:

Boo Boo Bears-for now

No Change: Full Bear "Trends" Remain

5.6 BTC Futures Hopium Falling:

Futures Have Fallen

5.7 Volatility:

Increasing Mildly-IVOL Trend Reversal!

Volatility Up = Prices Down......that is a solid correlation.

5.8 Liquidations:

ETH Hopium Getting Hammered

The Liquidation Cash Generator is huge! Next time one posits prices are falling due to "fundamentals" (pure rubbish), one might reflect on who owns the exchanges, and how those owners make $. See:

https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/rumrjt/crypto_exchange_practices_getting/

https://www.google.com/search?client=opera&q=90%25+of+altcoin+supply+held+by+whales&sourceid=opera&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

5.9 Cash Inflow Seasonality

Note to Self: This Is Still January (for ~3 more weeks!)

Crypto Wars: Does Bitcoin Or Ethereum Look Stronger Following Wednesday's Mini-Flash Crash?

Bitcoin

BTC and Ethereum ETH suffered a mini-crash on Wednesday when Bitcoin fell through a key support level at $44,850, which caused Ethereum to lose $3,600 as support.

On Thursday, both apex cryptocurrencies were working to print reversal candlesticks on their daily charts, which indicates at least a relief bounce may be in the cards through Friday and into the weekend.

Whether Bitcoin and Ethereum are able to make a trend change to the upside will take some time to play out, but aggressive bullish traders may be set for a short-term trade.

It should be noted that events affecting the direction of the general markets can quickly invalidate patterns, especially in the historically volatile crypto sector. As the saying goes, "the trend is your friend until it isn't," and any trader position should have a clear stop set in place and manage their risk versus reward. Turmoil in the cryptocurrency sector over the past few months can at least partially be linked to governmental policies, as leaders are burdened with finding ways to regulate mining and trading of a currency designed to not have a centralized authority.

https://preview.redd.it/cm2833rbf5a81.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=056be27fa42f4c550561c07f2866cbb9f2fcbd80

Extreme fear event in bitcoin and Safemoon doesn't blink. What more do you want?

https://i.redd.it/6t0d0opsj4a81.png

Louis Navellier's "Big Bet Summit"

https://louisbigbet.com/

Louis Navellier: Dubbed the "King of Quants" by Forbes magazine, Louis Navellier has been analyzing the stock market using computer-based systems since the 1970s.

He got his start in college after writing an algorithm that went on to beat the S&P over one period by a factor of nearly 3-to-1...

And hasn't looked back since.

Using quant-based systems he personally derived, he found many of today's household-name companies when they were trading for peanuts...

Like Home Depot when it was trading for 73 cents per share...Microsoft at 38 cents...Nike at 33 cents...and Intel when it was just above $3.

As well as many 100%, 300%, 500%... even a few 1,000% winners over his career.

Because of this incredible success -- Louis has earned the reputation for being one of the best individual stock pickers of our time...

But what's been often overlooked by the media and his readers is Louis' aptitude for finding the next big megatrend long before the mainstream.

He foresaw the rise of the PCs, the internet, and smartphones well before they changed how we communicated, shopped, worked, and traveled... and before they ushered trillions of new wealth into our economy.

And, just recently Louis' high-speed stock computer system went "haywire" pointing him to the next world-changing market sector...

What he's calling his Big Bet.

Just like if you got in on the PC revolution in the late '80s, the internet boom in the mid-90s, or bitcoin 10 years ago...

If you catch just one big megatrend, it could hand you incredible gains...

And that's the promise of Louis' Big Bet sector.

Check out https://louisbigbet.com/ for more info, you can watch the video and see if it interests you!

Then come back here after the event has aired and we can discuss access to the information, should you want it!