Tuesday, January 11, 2022

All hell is about to break loose. $500k. 100% of my dip money going all in.

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I've watched on-chain data for years. I'd argue that currently, it's the most bullish I've ever seen it, and the micro backdrop looks the same. I'm calling for $500k in the next 12 months. Longterm holders are in a longterm uptrend, while short-term holders are in a longterm downtrend. When you consider the halving we had in 2020 (which means only 6.25 coinbase per block), the rise of commercial mining (which means huge amounts of HODL'ed bitcoin), the parabolic growth of the LN (which means ever increasing amounts of BTC locked in nodes), the explosion of hard wallets (Trezor will give you 13% off if you wait to buy yours, and Ledger tripled its capacity), the possibility of spot ETF's (which means pension, IRA, and institutional exposure), that 90% of all BTC has already been mined (the last 10% will take over 100 years to mine), etcetera, there's not much time left until we reach the counterpoint. That's where governments, financial institutions, and wealthy families late to the inevitability compete for the last large tracts of UTXO space on the blockchain, and bring the type of volatility the gold/papiermark enjoyed, before bitcoin's transactional (currency) epoch arrives:

https://preview.redd.it/dtjkna3cb6b81.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c5a310fb1c2c31678582e086a9bd05b54236542

On the micro side, all the publicly listed bitcoin companies (miners, FinCen etcetera), are at exhausted RSI's and trading at or below 52-week lows. The perp funding rates are negative. Futures ETF's have been in a consistent downtrend since November. The fear and greed index reached multi-year lows two days ago. Too, the massive amount of Asian selling is drying up (Huobi alone dumped 350k coins over the last quarter and several exchanges dumped all their Chinese customers). But you'd never know any of this from the story on-chain data is trying to tell us that dumb money isn't heeding:

https://preview.redd.it/stqgygmyb6b81.jpg?width=1800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=78ae90722bc8c98455aef5e353d922f4e7a49591

https://preview.redd.it/p7bjjtv7c6b81.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a10a5ca31e4c4e6028b53172221bd5f3649bf758

So for me, I'm going to follow the subtext, and not listen to the noise. I'm going to trust the math. I'm going all-in with my dip money which I usually keep at 5% of my BTC holdings. I'll do so un-hedged, and prepare a loan on my BTC in the event one of the below FUD's drives us down briefly.

FINAL FUD

There are 3 potential FUD's this year, and after, there won't be anymore, ever.

  • Regulation. This will obliterate altcoins and almost all stablecoins.
  • Mt. Gox distribution date
  • Russian invasion of Ukraine. This could spike energy prices, clobber mining's economy of scale, and force distribution of several miner's holdings to pay overhead. Kazakhstan produces energy at .04-.05 cents per kWh, which is about the cheapest in the world and has 20% of the hash power for example. Adding .01 to that is extremely severe.

Bitcoin will pivot off all of this quickly.


Common myths about NFT's

Coming into a new space is always scary. The unknown and unfamiliar usually is.

I wanted to go through some of the most common misconceptions newbies have when entering the NFT space. Some you may know and others you may not. We hope this provides some insight and value to those wanting to dip their toes in the ocean of NFT's.

NFT's are a blockchain or type of cryptocurrency

One of the main misconceptions amongst new players in the space is that NFT's are a kind of cryptocurrency. Both cryptocurrency and NFT's are developed on the blockchain, but the biggest difference is fungibility.

Cryptocurrencies are fungible which means they can be replaced by the same thing easily. For example, one bitcoin can be exchanged for another as they hold the same value. NFT's are non-fungible, which means each asset's value is unique and can't be replaced by another.

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NFT's are f&%king worthless and have no utility

Another common misconception for most newbies is that NFT's hold no real value or utility. When the majority of people think about NFT's they picture strange avatar profile pictures or jpegs being sold for thousands of dollars (in some cases millions) and end up scratching their heads wondering why.

The truth is that most projects look to create value through additional utility only the NFT holder has access to. Whether it's access to a person, event, private discords or community, or even a physical asset that the NFT holder can own. New utilities are being created every day in the space.

A great example of a project that is offering real utility is an NFT project by Gary Vee called Veefriends. Holders of that collection received special perks like dinner with Gary, basketball games, one-on-one phone calls with him, and even 3 years' worth of entry to his VeeCon event in the US.

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NFT's are a scam or get rich quick scheme

The truth is that NFT's themselves are not a scam or get-rich-quick scheme; however, there are definitely crooks in the space who like to take advantage of unknowing newbies with hopes of using NFT's to retire on a beach somewhere.

This is why with anything you do in this space, it's truly important to DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH and not just jump into projects with hopes it will make you rich. This applies to cryptocurrencies as well (I will go through some key things to watch out for when choosing an NFT project in another thread).

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NFT's are harmful to the environment

Now, this one isn't entirely correct. NFT's can have a negative impact when transactions and minting occur on a more energy-intensive mechanism such as Proof of Work (PoW). This is the current consensus protocol that Ethereum uses (You can have a read about PoW below) which the majority of NFT transactions and minting occur on.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_work

Alternative methods that have been suggested are “off-chain” transactions using an additional transaction layer, renewable energy-based, or less-energy intensive blockchains like Algorand and Tezos with Proof of Stake (PoS) protocols. Using these alternatives, NFTs can significantly reduce environmental impact (You can have a read about PoS below).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_stake

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NFT's are just a fad

NFT's have now garnered mainstream attention and it's challenged traditional notions of the value of art. Don't get me wrong, many people see NFT's solely as a novelty and unfortunately, they couldn't be more wrong.

What the mainstream hasn't taken note of is a large number of content creators, artists, musicians, gamers & many more creatives being able to finally monetize their work in a way the world has never seen before. They have been able to use NFT's to expand their mediums and assets and create connections with fans that have never been seen before, through NFT's.

The use cases continue to grow and spread across many different industries. You have major brands (such as Pepsi, Nike, Adidas to name a few) utilizing NFT's to engage more with customers and create unique experiences.

We hope these misconceptions or 'myths' provided some insight into the NFT landscape and provided confidence when looking to purchase or become involved in the space! #WAGMI.


33M, Successful, Achieved Most of My Dreams, Feeling Lost, Not Sure Why

Early TL;DR: I achieved the American Dream way earlier than I expected, but I'm more stressed and anxious and less happy each year. Since I'm sure many of you have gone through this, I'd love your input as to why and what I can do about it.

For context, I'm a healthy 33AM INTJ. Good family, no history of depression personally. Parents hammered in "work hard, save a lot" immigrant mentality from a young age. Went to top-ranked high school and college on academic scholarships, so no college debt at all. I started a successful business at 26 with my business partner, who I trained. Make about $200k a year and counting, net worth near half a million when 10 years ago I was worth like $5-10k.

While I'm not "rich," compared to my poor-ish childhood in NYC apartments, I already have more money at 33 than I ever thought I would as an English major grad. And at the rate my business is growing, my biz partner and I are set to hire people to run it for us by the time I'm 40. I could retire in 7 years with ~$1 million in net worth or more (by 45 if I wanted $2M). I also live in a much lower cost-of-living, income tax-free state now.

So, on paper, I've achieved the poor immigrant kid's American Dream much earlier than I expected: got the pretty house with lawn and backyard, car + garage, wonderful fiance (80% of the time), three awesome dogs, no kids or plans for them yet, successful and growing biz, healthy parents, good relationships with my parents and close guy friends, excellent business partner, etc.

Yet I'm oddly dissatisfied with life in a way I can't quite put my finger on. And my anxiety is getting worse and worse each year. I don't have a history of being or feeling ungrateful, and yet it is harder and harder for me to take pleasure in what I've achieved and in the hobbies I used to enjoy.

I feel guilty whenever I'm not being "productive" and I hate that because in college I was super chill and I miss being that way sometimes. I want to unwind a bit more and enjoy the fruits of my labor, yet on the days when I only need to work 2-4 hours (mostly Fridays), I'm almost miserable and can't figure out how to spend my time. I just took two weeks off for the holidays and got back to work, but I feel like I needed another two months off.

I have some theories on why I'm feeling this way, but I'd love the insights of anyone who's been in a similar situation, and who has ADHD like me since I'm sure you can relate.

Possibility #1: Because of my ADHD, I'm restless. I want to do more with myself, but because I'm making decent money already I'm not motivated or "hungry" enough to do it. My back is no longer against the wall, and I'm more confident than ever, yet somehow I feel lesser than because I'm working less hard than I used to.

Perhaps I'm tying too much of my self-worth to how much/how hard I work, or how much money I make? If this is the case, how do I stop doing that and begin to enjoy the life I've built more? My dad is one of the happiest/most satisfied men I know and he had a hard immigrant's life and never made a lot of money. Yet he's still happy.

Possibility #2: Series of unfortunate events. In the past 4 years, I've dealt with (in no particular order): making and losing half a million in Bitcoin in a few months, almost losing my dad to cancer, and becoming his part-time caretaker for a year (he's recovered and in remission now), an ex who turned out to have BPD and compulsively lied about everything for 4 years (I didn't know, and broke up with her as soon as I did), couple's counseling with my fiance who is trustworthy but has anger issues due to her childhood, the stressors of starting and running a business, and COVID (which temporarily erased 90% of our pipeline).

Am I just burned out/exhausted by this string of negative events? For anyone else who has dealt with similar burnout at high levels of performance, how long did it take you to recover and feel 100% again?

Possibility #3: I'm having the inevitable tertiary/mid-life crisis (I feel like I already had my quarter-life crisis at 25, which is why I started a biz) and this too will pass in time. Maybe I shouldn't be so worried, and most men go through this no matter how successful they are?

Any and all thoughts, advice, tips, etc. would be appreciated. Thank you all in advance! I'll try to reply to questions as often as possible.


Why Elon Musk can be interested in GreenAir?

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Capturing CO2 from the atmosphere is not a simple process, and some feel that doing it is essential to the survival of our world.

Elon Musk is one of those individuals, and he wanted to back up his statements with evidence, so he announced a reward of $100 million dollars for those who are successful in developing devices to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

This unusual event, which will begin in April and offer participants four years to complete their objective as of today, has already revealed additional information to the public.

The problem is extremely difficult since the goal is not merely to capture CO2, but rather to develop a technology that is scalable, efficient, and safe for the environment.

What is the Objective of the Elon Musk Initiative?

https://preview.redd.it/stortd42c4b81.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfe56b995fa7df38690613be17ad7de7fb8329cf

The goal of the project will be to develop devices that are capable of “capturing carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere or the oceans and permanently enclosing it in a manner that is safe for the environment.”

Until recently, technologies that were capable of absorbing CO2 did so in ways that were unproductive and/or too expensive to implement.

A Canadian business named Carbon Engineering has succeeded in capturing CO2 from the environment in order to produce new forms of fuel and even an alcoholic beverage known as Air Vodka, according to TechCrunch.

Xprize will reward a million dollars to each of the 15 contest finalists, with the first place winner receiving 50 million dollars, the second-place winner receiving 20 million dollars, and the third-place winner receiving 10 million dollars.

Additionally, 25 academic scholarships worth $ 250,000 will be awarded to students who are working toward this aim.

To demonstrate that these solutions are effective, they must all be capable of collecting one tonne of CO2 per day.

However, they must also be scalable systems that have been confirmed in their presentation and that can be utilized commercially on a large scale to demonstrate their effectiveness.

Why Elon Musk can be interested in GreenAir?

https://preview.redd.it/zedbgpt4c4b81.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=b18dab67b939b63c0616360ae6c637d73bbd2c3a

GreenAir is a decentralized ecosystem that addresses two problems at the same time: the present high energy consumption associated with cryptocurrency and derivatives mining, as well as the negative impacts of climate change.

All of this is accomplished through the use of various solar-powered gadgets. Additionally, it will include other areas such as a pollutant exchange, tokenized carbon credits, and additional uses as they are developed.

What is the functioning of GreenAir devices?

The various devices are currently in the process of being developed. They will enable bitcoin mining, NFT mining, and a wide range of other applications, starting with a chip and an integrated solar panel and progressing from there.

The majority of the aluminum will be recycled. Metals such as aluminum are easily recycled, which helps to reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere while also maintaining the environment’s natural resources. Plastics shall be avoided to the greatest extent practicable.

What is the estimated cost of the devices?

Because products are still in development, they are unable to predict with precision what the final pricing will be.

The cost of current air-cleaning machines, which include the essential technologies, ranges between 200 and 700 euros. Because their gadget will have the Green Chip, the value will very certainly increase by a small amount.

In addition, the various gadgets may only be purchased using their $ GREEN token, which can be found here.

What is the process through which GreenAir will clean CO2?

There is currently no easy procedure that can be carried out, even though tests have been carried out, to convert CO2 + water into methane by 2021, and even if methane would be fuel, they would not be able to store it at that time.

By 2025, they intend to have developed and investigated viable alternatives. They have a chemical industry specialist on their team (which is in the process of expanding), and they are hopeful that a solution to this problem will be discovered in the next few years.

In any event, if they can mine using solar energy while also cleaning the air (which is currently achievable with present technology), they will have achieved success. As part of their effort, they are ensuring that the gadget does not require filters or spare components that might result in waste.

Is it possible to mine it without the fan?

The original plan was to create a solar panel with a mining chip, which was a simple concept.

As a result, a significant quantity of CO2 created by miners, who consume an enormous amount of energy due to the equipment engaged in the functioning of the network, in order to carry out the computations that authenticate the transactions, would no longer be released into the atmosphere.

If they are able to get the goods out without a fan, they will have achieved a 90 percent success rate. Nevertheless, if they can also clean the air, they will not only lower the carbon footprint, but they will also remove considerably more CO2 than can be created throughout the process.

What exactly are the advantages of the GREEN token?

Green will be a decentralized ecosystem that will address the existing issue of excessive energy consumption in the mining process of cryptocurrencies and derivatives, as well as other problems.

Other cryptocurrencies, NFTs, and a variety of other coins may be mined using its solar-powered devices, as can a variety of other coins using the chip embedded inside the device.

It is not possible to connect it to the electrical grid; instead, it will only be able to operate with its solar panel, which is the only method to ensure that it is entirely made of renewable energy.

Furthermore, with the surplus energy generated by the solar panel, the fans included in the gadgets will remove contaminants from the air. This is an added benefit.

The Green token will be utilized as a payment mechanism, and the devices will only be available for purchase using $ GREEN. It will also have numerous additional applications in the future, such as tokenized carbon credits and pollutant trading.


EN PLEINE CRISE DE L’ÉNERGIE, LA POLICE DU KOSOVO SAISIT 300 ASIC DE MINAGE DE BITCOIN

Le Kosovo montre ses muscles et procède à la mise en œuvre des dispositions répressives contre les mineurs de cryptomonnaies. Comment expliquer l’hostilité de certains pays envers le minage de Bitcoin (BTC) et des cryptos en général ? Retour sur quelques principes fondamentaux relatifs aux cryptomonnaies se basant sur une blockchain utilisant le proof of work ou la preuve de participation.

MINAGE DE BITCOIN AU KOSOVO : COUP DE FILET ANTI-ANTMINER

Le 8 janvier 2022, la police du Kosovo annonce dans un communiqué la saisie de 272 Antminer dans la commune de Leposavic, ainsi que celle de 39 machines de minage près de Prishtina, la capitale du pays. Les autorités ont en outre interpellé à Druar, dans ville de Vushtrri, un conducteur transportant six machines de minage, et 42 cartes graphiques (GPU). Le conducteur arrêté a été interrogé puis relâché.

La ministre de l’économie, Artane Rizvanoll, a souligné dans un tweet les bénéfices que retire la population de ces actions, en termes d’accès à l’énergie :

« Des milliers d’euros par mois d’argent des contribuables sont économisés = de l’énergie pour des centaines de familles kosovares pendant la crise. »

Le Kosovo a connu des pénuries d’électricité durant l’hiver, et notamment des coupures au niveau du pays le 22 décembre 2021. Un Comité technique sur les mesures d’urgence pour l’approvisionnement en énergie a alors été constitué pour se pencher sur ces problèmes.

Début janvier 2022, Rizvanoll décide d'interdire le minage de cryptomonnaies sur le territoire du Kosovo, suivant les recommandations de ce Comité. La police est alors sollicitée pour appliquer les mesures répressives.

POURQUOI DE PLUS EN PLUS DE PAYS INTERDISENT-ILS LE MINAGE DE BITCOIN ?

Le minage de bitcoin, et celui d’autres cryptomonnaies se basant sur une blockchain utilisant la preuve de travail, sont considérés par une partie de l’opinion comme particulièrement énergivores.

Les coûts en matière d’électricité pèsent lourds pour les entreprises d’extraction de bitcoin. Les mineurs s’implantent donc généralement dans un pays où l’électricité est relativement bon marché pour pouvoir rentabiliser au mieux leurs activités.

La population à majorité serbe vivant dans les villes et communes du nord du Kosovo bénéficient d’une électricité gratuite depuis la fin de la guerre en 1999. Le gestionnaire du réseau électrique KOSTT a cependant annoncé fin novembre 2021, qu’il cessera de fournir une électricité gratuite aux quatre municipalités du Nord du pays : Mitrovica Nord, Zvecan, Zubin Potok et Leposavic.

Le Kosovo a donc des « arguments » pour attirer les mineurs étrangers ou encourager les locaux à plonger dans le minage de bitcoin. La quantité importante d’énergie consommée exerce cependant une pression importante sur les réseaux électriques du pays, obligeant ainsi les autorités à réguler le minage sur ce point.

Le Kosovo n’est pas le seul à mettre en œuvre des restrictions pour le minage de cryptomonnaies. Les autorités du Kazakhstan veulent également Limiter la consommation d'électricité des mineurs, notamment ceux qui ne sont pas enregistrés et qui opèrent donc illégalement. Le minage au Kazakhstan vient cependant de subir un coup d’arrêt à cause d’une coupure d’internet à l’échelle nationale.

Pas besoin forcément de miner du bitcoin pour en avoir et en tirer profit. Pour acheter facilement vos BTC et autres cryptos, et commencez à y trader vos BTC ou autres cryptos dès aujourd’hui ! (lien affilié)

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