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Tuesday, September 19, 2023
Wednesday - 20/09/2023 🎥 Market Recap: 👇
Wednesday - 20/09/2023 🎥
Market Recap: 👇
1️⃣ - #bitcoin - Hangs around $27k ahead of FOMC event.
2️⃣ - #crypto - Custodian warns it may lay off staff.
3️⃣ - #sec - Warns of more charges coming to exchanges and #defi .
Daily Brief - ☀️ Are rate cuts good for stocks?
TLDR: On Wednesday, when the Fed meeting concludes we should get a lot of interesting information. One thing is unlikely to change (along with the rates, which are also staying on hold): at long last, the market and the Fed agree on rate cuts in 2024. Rates are gonna come down next year, if these forecasts prove to be correct. In fact, the Fed sees itself cutting even into 2025. Is this a good thing for stocks?
Rate cuts typically happen because the economy is slowing and/or even entering a recession. On the face of it, that doesn’t seem to be a great event for stocks.
However, when we test this in our neat Scenario tool, you can see that a 100 bps drop in Fed Funds rate over a 12 month period results in a disproportionately strong stock market performance.
The upside vs. the downside outcomes are completely skewed in the ratio of almost 3-1 in favor of upside. More than a fifth of the time the stocks were up 17.16% or more. And less than a fifth of the time they declined more than 6.73%.
To be fair, there are some bad tail outcomes on the downside, mostly from the global financial crisis. But you’ll be able to spot that scenario.
Why the positive skew on rate cuts?
Mostly, because by the time the Fed has cut rates the bad economic situation has already been priced in. Fed cuts signal that the worst is either over or soon to be, and that leads to a stock rally.
Anyway, this is just hypothetical for now. The expectation for this Wednesday is the Fed will stay on a “watchful hold” - doing nothing while monitoring the data carefully.
What's happening in the markets?
This section is powered by Open AI connected to TOGGLE AI
Bitcoin and various other cryptocurrencies have seen an upward surge, sparking optimism among traders aiming to break free from the prolonged stagnancy in digital asset prices.
Bitcoin notably surpassed the $27,000 mark, contributing to its impressive 60% growth so far this year. This upward momentum is reflected in the increasing number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network, indicating a growing user base, coupled with a rise in realized volatility?view=chart) after reaching a four-year low last month.
Additionally, recent analysis by Toggle has shown that historically, when Bitcoin's transaction value has dipped, it often led to a subsequent median return of approximately 60% over the following six months. Intriguingly, this pattern has consistently occurred before significant Crypto booms.
However, amidst this promising data, the looming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week is anticipated to exert an influence on cryptocurrency prices, injecting an element of uncertainty into the market dynamics.
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Earnings Update: FedEx reports tomorrow
Look out for shipment volume! Last earnings, FedEx's Express segment, which accounts for roughly half of the company's revenue, missed analysts's quarterly revenue estimates by $350 million.
Discover how other companies could react post earnings with the help of TOGGLE's WhatIF Earnings tool.
Asset Spotlight: What's next for Oil prices?
Toggle analyzed 11 similar occasions in the past where Light Sweet Crude Oil prices jumped and historically this led to a median increase in the commodity's price over the following 6M. Read full insight!
General Interest: Comments on Musk
Were you looking for some more Musk spam this week? Then look no further.
Courtesy of one of our substacks, we present you a collection of praises and disses relating to our favorite billionaire / villain / world savior / nerd.
Ranging from his skills to his mental health, the comments are enlightening. Read more here on Astral Codex Ten.
"I have succeeded to gain a total access to all your devices"
Started showing in my spam folder. I don't believe a word of it but thought I'd post it here if anyone has more info or has experience with this one before.
There's a bitcoin wallet id given. Is there any way to use it gainfully?
Hi there!
I regret to inform you about some sad news for you.
Approximately a month or two ago I have succeeded to gain a total access to all your devices utilized for browsing internet.
Moving forward, I have started observing your internet activities on continuous basis.
Go ahead and take a look at the sequence of events provided below for your reference:
Initially I bought an exclusive access from hackers to a long list of email accounts (in today's world, that is really a common thing, which can arranged via internet).
Evidently, it wasn't hard for me to proceed with logging in your e-mail account zzzzz@dddddd.qqq.
Within the same week, I moved on with installing a Trojan virus in Operating Systems for all devices that you use to login to email.
Frankly speaking, it wasn't a challenging task for me at all (since you were kind enough to click some of the links in your inbox emails before).
Yeah, geniuses are among us.
Because of this Trojan I am able to gain access to entire set of controllers in devices (e.g., your video camera, keyboard, microphone and others).
As result, I effortlessly downloaded all data, as well as photos, web browsing history and other types of data to my servers.
Moreover, I have access to all social networks accounts that you regularly use, including emails, including chat history, messengers, contacts list etc.
My unique virus is incessantly refreshing its signatures (due to control by a driver), and hence remains undetected by any type of antiviruses.
Hence, I guess by now you can already see the reason why I always remained undetected until this very letter...
During the process of compilation of all the materials associated with you,
I also noticed that you are a huge supporter and regular user of websites hosting nasty adult content.
Turns out to be, you really love visiting porn websites, as well as watching exciting videos and enduring unforgettable pleasures.
As a matter of fact, I was not able to withstand the temptation, but to record certain nasty solo action with you in main role,
and later produced a few videos exposing your masturbation and cumming scenes.
If until now you don't believe me, all I need is one-two mouse clicks to make all those videos with everyone you know,
including your friends, colleagues, relatives and others.
Moreover, I am able to upload all that video content online for everyone to see.
I sincerely think, you certainly would not wish such incidents to take place, in view of the lustful things demonstrated in your commonly watched videos,
(you absolutely know what I mean by that) it will cause a huge adversity for you.
There is still a solution to this matter, and here is what you need to do:
You make a transaction of $800 to my account (an equivalent in bitcoins, which recorded depending on the exchange rate at the date of funds transfer),
hence upon receiving the transfer, I will immediately get rid of all those lustful videos without delay.
After that we can make it look like there was nothing happening beforehand.
Additionally, I can confirm that all the Trojan software is going to be disabled and erased from all devices that you use. You have nothing to worry about,
because I keep my word at all times.
That is indeed a beneficial bargain that comes with a relatively reduced price,
taking into consideration that your profile and traffic were under close monitoring during a long time frame.
If you are still unclear regarding how to buy and perform transactions with bitcoins - everything is available online.
Below is my bitcoin wallet for your further reference: 1Q3THF2i28uR8QEfFkkUdEkZxfrWbyRsaG
All you have is 40 hours and the countdown begins once this email is opened.
The following list includes things you should remember and avoid doing:
- There's no point to try replying my email (since this email and return address were created inside your inbox).
- There's no point in calling police or any other types of security services either. Furthermore, don't you dare sharing this info with any of your friends.
If I discover that (taking into consideration my skills, it will be really simple, because I control all your systems and continuously monitor them)
your nasty clip will be shared with public straight away.
- There's no point in looking for me too - it won't result in any success. Transactions with cryptocurrency are completely anonymous and untraceable.
- There's no point in reinstalling your OS on devices or trying to throw them away. That won't solve the issue,
since all clips with you as main character are already uploaded on remote servers.
Be careful.
[Winner's Thread #94] A warm saludo to all!
Greetings!
I'm BenjamÃn, a 33-year-old living in the Guatemalan highlands going on 7 years now. I work with a small community organization founded and run by a team of incredible Maya women serving local villages. I am back from the market with a bag full of my favorite fruits—how I survived back home in Chicago without my daily avocado, I can't recall. Life is so often humbling.
I acknowledge I am probably on Reddit's list of "Greatest 21st-Century Lurkers." Reddit keeps me current on world events, shows me adorable animal photos, and teaches me creative and silly one-liners. Internet access is limited in rural Guatemala, so while I cannot play Dota 2 or watch it on Twitch, I can at least read about it on Reddit.
I have grown to enjoy limited internet access, and I spend my time learning the local Maya language, exploring Maya culture, playing soccer in the community, reading (currently reading Dune), enjoying tostadas and atol de manà in the park, leaving food out for the stray dogs, and watching the lightning during the rainy season. It's the little things in life I try to no longer take for granted. I love the smell of tortillas and frijol my neighbor prepares. I admire the young lady who passes each morning offering peanuts and candies. I don't fret when my shoes and socks take a week to dry throughout the rainy months.
Guatemalans are innovative, practical, kind, strong, resilient, and more. I am learning to take better care of myself and to take better care of others. Some say I might spend the rest of my days here...
I have received so much from so many people here over the years. Your kindness will be spent on giving a little back. Know that supplies for our students will be purchased, liver from the local market will be bought (for the strays!), and my wonderful host family will be treated to the fanciest of dinners.
Kindness comes in many forms. Please do not feel obligated to send money. You can show your kindness by recommending your favorite subreddit here in the comments. I enjoy exploring new communities on Reddit!
A warm saludo to all, Ben
Everything listed should result in direct lines of payment to /u/Nej-tak. We ask all users to donate at least $1 USD. The Drawing is also listed for users who want to see the results and confirm the validity of the winner, and Activity Proof is listed for those who would like to confirm that the owner of the account is as presented.
Activity Proof: https://imgur.com/a/uHPBUeS/
PayPal: https://www.paypal.me/guatelife
Bitcoin: bc1qgam6hm6mj49j3ysvvpg4lqjkvjecnuumxn35ym
Bitcoin Cash: qpxpjzca5fwu4uc79qqh7a9g3j05cttrhsmymn7lv4
Ethereum: 0x56F90b86285c17edCbbC9fB865169D59B298F838
Litecoin: ltc1q9dc43qt25my8fvp4g58fnrxpch44gqhrl4s970
Dogecoin: DGxCaeVNqbGGJNmA2CYFvPYiQmqs5TDUZY
Nano: nano_1rf7yr75qpe93gadrp7ae8zdf6d3e953f15yb31fc5amot3gopfga8rofkkf
BitcoinSpark
BitcoinSpark project's enthusiasm and dedication have made this event a resounding success. We look forward to having you stay with us for more exciting events as we continue to build a better community together! https://bitcoinspark.org/
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