Saturday, February 27, 2021

Bitcoin is a risky asset that is completely unpredictable. Change my mind

I've recently changed my opinion on Bitcoin from being super bullish to thinking that it's an incredibly risky asset that is completely unpredictable. First, a quick backstory. I first bought into Bitcoin in December 2017 at literally the absolute top. I bought in at around $19,000. I shortly sold after for a small loss and I never touched Bitcoin for over a year. Starting in 2019, I started to get kind of interested in Bitcoin again. I was interested in the actual technology though and not simply the price. I bought in in July 2019 at around $11,000. I had in making purchases here and there and I even bought in at around $5,000 at around March 2020. I was buying more aggressively towards the end of the year and I think my average cost was in the low $20,000's. I've recently sold almost all of my bitcoin for around $46,000. I only have a very small amount now as pure speculation. I want to list all the points made by those in favor of Bitcoin that even I used to make myself. I then want to list my new perspective on them and why I don't think they are valid. Here goes.

Medium of Exchange

This was supposed to be the original purpose of Bitcoin. It was supposed to be a peer to peer payment system that didn't need a central authority to function. Maybe Bitcoin was a decent payment system back in the days when it was used on places like the silk road, places where it is not reliable to use a centralized payment system, but it fails as a payment system in the real world for multiple reasons.

Bitcoin has exorbitantly high fees. If you want your transaction to occur within the next block, you're gonna be paying over $10 in fees minimum. If you pay a fee of $1, you're still gonna be waiting at least a few hours for it to confirm. This is completely impractical for being used in the real economy.
Bitcoin cannot scale. Bitcoin can only do about 4 transactions per second whereas Visa can do over 65,000. There is no way for Bitcoin to settle transactions on a global scale with how slow it is. And if more people did start to use Bitcoin, the fees would become even more expensive which relates to my first point.
Bitcoin offers no benefit as a medium of exchange to the average person than something like credit cards or apps like PayPal, Cash App, or Venmo. In fact Bitcoin is worse than these apps for the average person. These apps allow you to send money instantly and for free while with Bitcoin you'll be waiting possibly hours to send money and you'll pay at least a few dollars. Nobody wants to pay a few dollars to send $20 to a friend to pay them for something.
Bitcoin is way too volatile to be used as a medium of exchange. In order for something to successfully work as money in the economy, it needs to be stable. If money does not have a stable price, it will result in all kinds of misallocations of capital in the economy. Borrowing and lending both get screwed up and companies cannot reliably make long term plans if the value of the currency drops by 50% in a year. I actually favor the privatization of money and I want people to be able to use whatever money that they want. I just don't think Bitcoin works. Personally, I think David Friedman's idea is best. That is that money should be backed by a basket of commodities in the economy to ensure stable prices. Backing money by a single commodity like gold runs into issues because if that commodity becomes high in demand, it will increase the value of the money without any sort of productivity increase. Backing it by a bunch of commodities is basically the same as diversifying your stock portfolio. It would make it more stable. Anyways that's a whole different discussion so I don't wanna get deep into it.

Store of Value

Because Bitcoin obviously fails as a medium of exchange, its proponents have changed to calling it a store of value. I don't see Bitcoin as being an effective store of value for a few reasons.

Bitcoin has had 3 drawdowns of over 80% in its lifetime. Something that drops 80% because of no real catalyst is not an effective store of value.
Proponents will say "But in all its 12 years it has always gone higher so that proves it's a good store of value." That doesn't make it a store of value though as it has clearly lost a lot of its value 3 times. Store of values are places where people put their money when they know it'll be there if some event happens. If someone bought Bitcoin and it drops 50%, you can't just tell them to hold till it goes back up because that's not what a store of value asset is supposed to be.
Bitcoiners themselves don't even believe that it is an effective store of value. Why would they say "don't invest more than you can afford to lose" if it was an effective store of value?
If Bitcoin was an actual store of value asset, nobody would want it. If Bitcoin simply went up 2-3% to account for inflation, nobody would want to buy it. Everyone is in Bitcoin because they wanna become rich. Nobody actually cares about any of technology or use.
Bitcoin has no value.

Bitcoin is backed by nothing. People will say that the dollar is backed by nothing but that's simply not true. The dollar is backed by the power of the US government and it's also backed by the productivity of the US economy.
Gold and other commodities have value because they are used in the real world for real uses. We can actually create a demand curve for gold. It's impossible to create a demand curve for Bitcoin because most Bitcoin believers are willing to buy at any price. The demand curve for Bitcoin is vertical.
Bitcoin is worth what 2 people believe it's worth. Now you can say that about anything but because its only utility is being able to transact, it's relevant in how you value it. The value of Bitcoin is the same whether it's worth $1 or $1,000,000 because it doesn't produce anything. So why should it ever be worth $1,000,000?
The fact that Bitcoin is scarce doesn't actually mean anything because since there is no way to effectively measure the demand of Bitcoin, its supply doesn't matter either. Nobody is looking to buy a certain number of Bitcoin. People are buying a certain dollar amount. So the actual units that exist of Bitcoin is irrelevant because nobody is trying to accumulate a certain number of Bitcoin.
What is the difference between 1 Bitcoin and 0.1 Bitcoin? In absence of the price, 1 Bitcoin is no more valuable than 0.1 Bitcoin. 0.1 Bitcoin is more valuable than 1 Bitcoin was back in March. 100 oz of gold is 10 times more stuff than 10 oz of gold. 100 oz of gold took more effort to create than 10 oz of gold. There is no actual utility in Bitcoin besides the ability to send it to someone. How much should that be worth? It should probably be worth at least something but it's impossible to know. Is Bitcoin undervalued at $50,000? Is it undervalued at $100,000? $1,000,000? It's impossible to know because it has no fundamental value.

Bitcoin is only worth $50,000 a coin because someone bought it thinking they could sell it to someone else for more. It is the Greater Fool Theory. Nobody actually wants Bitcoin. People want dollars to buy stuff and they think Bitcoin will allow them to get more dollars. Other people believe the same thing so they are willing to buy it for higher because they think they can sell it for higher. I'm not even saying that Bitcoin will go down. I think in 10 years it is likely that Bitcoin could 10x from here. That doesn't mean that Bitcoin will actually be anymore valuable than it is today. It will be worth $500,000 because someone believed that they could sell it to someone else for more than $500,000. If Apple increases net income by 5% in a quarter, it would be justified for their stock to be valued higher because they have created more value. What value has Bitcoin ever created or will ever create that can ever justify its price? I'd be curious to hear a rebuttal to my arguments besides just "you don't understand it" because I've held Bitcoin for almost 2 years through the ups and the downs. I've only now changed my opinion on it. Hopefully we can have a civil discussion about it.

Simple Guide to Bitcoin (Digital Gold)

What Is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin (BTC) is the very first form of cryptocurrency. A decentralised digital currency that uses cryptography to verify and record transactions. Bitcoin was created by Satoshi Nakamoto and debuted in 2009. This cryptocurrency was the very first of its kind. Satoshi Nakamoto departed the project in 2010 whilst remaining anonymous, and so far continues to remain that way. At present, bitcoin is solely controlled by a community of users and developers. Bitcoin.org describe bitcoin as ” The first decentralised peer-to-peer payment network that is powered by its users with no central authority or middlemen… From a user perspective, pretty much like cash for the internet”.

How Does Bitcoin Work?

Bitcoin uses 3 key components; Blockchain, Asymmetric Cryptographic Keys and Miners. All transactions that are conducted are listed in a shared public ledger. Transactions are referred to as ‘Blocks’ which are then linked to code (chains). As a result, all individual transactions processed using blockchain are permanently recorded. Asymmetric cryptographic keys function is to safely store users bitcoin in a digital wallet. The private key should remain private, and only be stored on the user’s device to decrypt data. In contrast, the public key is visible to all users of the network. And lastly, the bitcoin miners, that make everything possible. They’re members of the Bitcoin Network (Peer-To-Peer platform) located all around the world. Miners are responsible for confirming transactions (Blocks) using high-speed mining devices (computers, ASICs etc). The time it takes to complete a confirmation of a transaction according to The Bitcoin.org is ” between a few seconds and 90 minutes, with 10 minutes being the average”. Miners are rewarded with bitcoin for every block that they mine. However, the profit for miners can sometimes be non-existent or only cover their running costs.

Why Invest In Bitcoin?

I will only touch on a few advantages and disadvantages of owning bitcoin as an asset. Without further ado let’s have a look at the advantages:

Decentralised – Not one single entity controls the BTC network and currency. The current monetary systems in place today are centralised, controlled by the government and central bankers. Bitcoin should be seen as a speculative hedge against the failing economic system in place today.

User Anonymity – Bitcoin can provide users with unrivalled privacy when completing transactions compared to anything seen before to this day. Users are not required to provide personally identifiable information (PII). In today’s world, where governments are craving, want increasing powers and control over our freedoms. This digital asset provides users with increased privacy when completing their financial transactions.

Limited Supply – By design, there will only ever be 21 million coins created and in circulation. Bitcoin is an extremely scarce and deflationary asset. However, the current monetary systems are extremely inflationary and have an unlimited supply. In the UK, the Bank of England and government aim for a 2% inflation target each year.

Low Transactions & Quick – Bitcoins Peer-2-Peer network provides its users with the ability to complete transactions quickly and at very little cost.

Now, let's take a look at a few disadvantages:

Volatility – Bitcoin can be extremely volatile. To get an idea of its volatility, bitcoin has fallen by more than 50% on one day and nearly doubled in value on another. However, I believe this volatility will begin to reduce and stabilise as time goes on but we will have to see.

Bitcoin Scams – With the rise of cryptocurrencies, there has unfortunately also seen a rise of pesky individuals finding ways of scamming innocent people out of their hard-earned money or bitcoin. This, unfortunately, will not ever go away but there are things users can do to protect themselves so they don’t fall foul of these bad people.

Once it’s gone, you can’t get it back! – Unlike the current financial system in place, if something goes wrong you can attempt to recover your money through a refund or chargeback. Bitcoin does not offer users the same facilities as they have in the current financial systems. If you lose your bitcoin then it’s most likely it will never to be seen again. Always remember to complete your own due diligence when sending money or paying for any product or service.

Environmental impact – Bitcoin consumes a huge amount of electricity to mine and keep the network going to complete transactions for users. The BBC allegedly reports that bitcoin consumes more energy than the whole of Argentina. In this article, Cambridge researchers state it “consumes around 121.36 terawatt-hours (TWh) a year “.

How To Invest In Bitcoin?

How can you buy or earn bitcoins? Online you will see many suggestions on how to acquire this digital asset. I will only be highlighting the main 2 main methods; via cryptocurrency exchanges and mining.

Cryptocurrency Exchanges
Crypto exchanges are an online marketplace where traders can buy & sell a variety of digital currencies (BTC, ETH etc) in just a few clicks. Some well-known exchanges are; Coinbase, eToro, CoinJar, Kraken etc. Make sure you complete your own due diligence (reputation, security, fee structure, validation checks) on any exchange you decide to use. Once you’ve purchased bitcoin, a crypto wallet will be required to safely store your new crypto. Most exchanges provide a wallet facility but some at a cost, and not at all.

Mining
As discussed earlier in the post, miners are responsible for confirming transactions (Blocks) using high-speed mining devices (ASICs etc). Every miner earns a certain amount of bitcoin for every block (Confirming transactions) they mine. The block reward as of writing sits at 6.25 BTC per BTC block mined. Mining is not cheap and does cost a lot to get started and also to maintain. You will require an extremely powerful high-specification mining device (ASICs etc). These devices have other associated costs such as storage, security, maintenance, electricity & internet costs. The BTC block rewards less than mining costs can conclude that this method may be unprofitable. For the vast majority, the mining of bitcoin will likely be unprofitable and unsustainable.

How To Store Your Bitcoin?

Ok so you have bitcoin, now where do you store it? Let’s take a look at the 2 types of wallets :

Hot Wallets

Any wallets that are held online are referred to as hot wallets. These wallets can be extremely convenient and allow you to complete transactions quickly. However, here are some things to consider:

Lack Of Security – Like with anything connected to the internet there is always a risk of it being hacked. This also applies to bitcoin and holding it online increases your risk of your precious bitcoin being stolen.

No Ownership/Control – You are simply NOT the owner of the private key of that wallet. The wallet facilities provided by exchanges are custodial accounts. In an event where the exchange was compromised then your wallet is at risk of being stolen or lost. Increased government influence could see crypto exchanges forced to freeze assets. In that scenario, your bitcoin would be under the total control of the government.

In my humble opinion, I believe a hot wallet should only be seen as a temporary wallet to complete transactions. These wallets should not be used to hold large amounts of bitcoins.

Cold Wallets

A wallet that has no connection to the internet (offline). These wallets reduce the risk significantly as they are not internet-connected. The wallet address and the private key are stored on the offline device that the user owns and controls.

Paper Wallets
You generate this wallet on a specific website that then provides you with a public and private key. You simply print and store these keys. Access to any bitcoin stored in these wallets can only be accessed if you have the printed paper.

Hardware Wallets
These devices are USB drives that are used to securely store your private keys. These wallets are not as susceptible to threats or vulnerabilities as internet-connected devices. These devices are extremely easy to set up and use. They are a clever way to discreetly and securely transport your bitcoin around with you.

My Thoughts

I personally see this new form of digital gold as a speculative hedge against the current financial system. As my readers are aware, I have zero faith in this current system. I believe a collapse will happen eventually, and each day it becomes ever more likely. Bitcoin in the last month has hit a high of $58,367 and at the time of writing sits at $46,615. The prices of assets like bitcoin, gold and silver are a result of the decrease in the value of the dollar (or other fiat currencies). I am proudly invested in bitcoin and a few other crypto assets but I follow the same strategy as I do with silver, buy and hold. I think the bitcoin highs have not yet been reached and I don’t trust governments, central banks and the manipulated financial system.

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Why I've changed my opinion on Bitcoin.

Medium of Exchange

Bitcoin has exorbitantly high fees. If you want your transaction to occur within the next block, you're gonna be paying over $10 in fees minimum. If you pay a fee of $1, you're still gonna be waiting at least a few hours for it to confirm. This is completely impractical for being used in the real economy.
Bitcoin cannot scale. Bitcoin can only do about 4 transactions per second whereas Visa can do over 65,000. There is no way for Bitcoin to settle transactions on a global scale with how slow it is. And if more people did start to use Bitcoin, the fees would become even more expensive which relates to my first point.
Bitcoin offers no benefit as a medium of exchange to the average person than something like credit cards or apps like PayPal, Cash App, or Venmo. In fact Bitcoin is worse than these apps for the average person. These apps allow you to send money instantly and for free while with Bitcoin you'll be waiting possibly hours to send money and you'll pay at least a few dollars. Nobody wants to pay a few dollars to send $20 to a friend to pay them for something.
Bitcoin is way too volatile to be used as a medium of exchange. In order for something to successfully work as money in the economy, it needs to be stable. If money does not have a stable price, it will result in all kinds of misallocations of capital in the economy. Borrowing and lending both get screwed up and companies cannot reliably make long term plans if the value of the currency drops by 50% in a year. I actually favor the privatization of money and I want people to be able to use whatever money that they want. I just don't think Bitcoin works. Personally, I think David Friedman's idea is best. That is that money should be backed by a basket of commodities in the economy to ensure stable prices. Backing money by a single commodity like gold runs into issues because if that commodity becomes high in demand, it will increase the value of the money without any sort of productivity increase. Backing it by a bunch of commodities is basically the same as diversifying your stock portfolio. It would make it more stable. Anyways that's a whole different discussion so I don't wanna get deep into it.

Store of Value

Because Bitcoin obviously fails as a medium of exchange, its proponents have changed to calling it a store of value. I don't see Bitcoin as being an effective store of value for a few reasons.

Bitcoin has had 3 drawdowns of over 80% in its lifetime. Something that drops 80% because of no real catalyst is not an effective store of value.
Proponents will say "But in all its 12 years it has always gone higher so that proves it's a good store of value." That doesn't make it a store of value though as it has clearly lost a lot of its value 3 times. Store of values are places where people put their money when they know it'll be there if some event happens. If someone bought Bitcoin and it drops 50%, you can't just tell them to hold till it goes back up because that's not what a store of value asset is supposed to be.
Bitcoiners themselves don't even believe that it is an effective store of value. Why would they say "don't invest more than you can afford to lose" if it was an effective store of value?
If Bitcoin was an actual store of value asset, nobody would want it. If Bitcoin simply went up 2-3% to account for inflation, nobody would want to buy it. Everyone is in Bitcoin because they wanna become rich. Nobody actually cares about any of technology or use.
Bitcoin has no value.

Bitcoin is backed by nothing. People will say that the dollar is backed by nothing but that's simply not true. The dollar is backed by the power of the US government and it's also backed by the productivity of the US economy.
Gold and other commodities have value because they are used in the real world for real uses. We can actually create a demand curve for gold. It's impossible to create a demand curve for Bitcoin because most Bitcoin believers are willing to buy at any price. The demand curve for Bitcoin is vertical.
Bitcoin is worth what 2 people believe it's worth. Now you can say that about anything but because its only utility is being able to transact, it's relevant in how you value it. The value of Bitcoin is the same whether it's worth $1 or $1,000,000 because it doesn't produce anything. So why should it ever be worth $1,000,000?
The fact that Bitcoin is scarce doesn't actually mean anything because since there is no way to effectively measure the demand of Bitcoin, its supply doesn't matter either. Nobody is looking to buy a certain number of Bitcoin. People are buying a certain dollar amount. So the actual units that exist of Bitcoin is irrelevant because nobody is trying to accumulate a certain number of Bitcoin.
What is the difference between 1 Bitcoin and 0.1 Bitcoin? In absence of the price, 1 Bitcoin is no more valuable than 0.1 Bitcoin. 0.1 Bitcoin is more valuable than 1 Bitcoin was back in March. 100 oz of gold is 10 times more stuff than 10 oz of gold. 100 oz of gold took more effort to create than 10 oz of gold. There is no actual utility in Bitcoin besides the ability to send it to someone. How much should that be worth? It should probably be worth at least something but it's impossible to know. Is Bitcoin undervalued at $50,000? Is it undervalued at $100,000? $1,000,000? It's impossible to know because it has no fundamental value.

Payment from your account.

Greetings!

I have to share bad news with you. Approximately few months ago I have gained access to your devices, which you use for internet browsing. After that, I have started tracking your internet activities.

Here is the sequence of events: Some time ago I have purchased access to email accounts from hackers (nowadays, it is quite simple to purchase such thing online). Obviously, I have easily managed to log in to your email account .

One week later, I have already installed Trojan virus to Operating Systems of all the devices that you use to access your email. In fact, it was not really hard at all (since you were following the links from your inbox emails). All ingenious is simple. =)

This software provides me with access to all the controllers of your devices (e.g., your microphone, video camera and keyboard). I have downloaded all your information, data, photos, web browsing history to my servers. I have access to all your messengers, social networks, emails, chat history and contacts list. My virus continuously refreshes the signatures (it is driver-based), and hence remains invisible for antivirus software.

Likewise, I guess by now you understand why I have stayed undetected until this letter...

While gathering information about you, I have discovered that you are a big fan of adult websites. You really love visiting porn websites and watching exciting videos, while enduring an enormous amount of pleasure. Well, I have managed to record a number of your dirty scenes and montaged a few videos, which show the way you masturbate and reach orgasms.

If you have doubts, I can make a few clicks of my mouse and all your videos will be shared to your friends, colleagues and relatives. I have also no issue at all to make them available for public access. I guess, you really don't want that to happen, considering the specificity of the videos you like to watch, (you perfectly know what I mean) it will cause a true catastrophe for you.

Let's settle it this way: You transfer $950 USD to me (in bitcoin equivalent according to the exchange rate at the moment of funds transfer), and once the transfer is received, I will delete all this dirty stuff right away. After that we will forget about each other. I also promise to deactivate and delete all the harmful software from your devices. Trust me, I keep my word.

This is a fair deal and the price is quite low, considering that I have been checking out your profile and traffic for some time by now. In case, if you don't know how to purchase and transfer the bitcoins - you can use any modern search engine.

Here is my bitcoin wallet: 1xPr18gM8YKsaiUkGz9MgpjtwcBQcME2i

You have less than 48 hours from the moment you opened this email (precisely 2 days).

Things you need to avoid from doing: *Do not reply me (I have created this email inside your inbox and generated the return address). *Do not try to contact police and other security services. In addition, forget about telling this to you friends. If I discover that (as you can see, it is really not so hard, considering that I control all your systems) - your video will be shared to public right away. *Don't try to find me - it is absolutely pointless. All the cryptocurrency transactions are anonymous. *Don't try to reinstall the OS on your devices or throw them away. It is pointless as well, since all the videos have already been saved at remote servers.

Things you don't need to worry about: *That I won't be able to receive your funds transfer. - Don't worry, I will see it right away, once you complete the transfer, since I continuously track all your activities (my trojan virus has got a remote-control feature, something like TeamViewer). *That I will share your videos anyway after you complete the funds transfer. - Trust me, I have no point to continue creating troubles in your life. If I really wanted that, I would do it long time ago!

Everything will be done in a fair manner!

One more thing... Don't get caught in similar kind of situations anymore in future! My advice - keep changing all your passwords on a frequent basis

Beeple Trump NFT token resold for $ 6.6 million

Digital artwork "Crossroad" by artist Mike Winckelmann, known by the pseudonym Beeple, resold on the second market for a record $ 6.6 million.

The non-fungible token (NFT) contains an image of former US President Donald Trump, who lost the election.

According to the team of the Niftu Gateway trading platform, this is an historic event.

What are your spontaneous purchases?

#ETF #bitcoin #cryptocurrency #yllo #trade #fintech

https://preview.redd.it/93js45gdh4k61.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0bbf5522081f81b0a3a8dccdc3860785d2504fb

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How would the bitcoin standard look like?

Hi,

I am reading Lords of finance -

"The Bankers Who Broke the World is a nonfiction book by Liaquat Ahamed about events leading up to and culminating in the Great Depression as told through the personal histories of the heads of the Central Banks of the world's four major economies at the time."

In the book its is clear that the gold standard coupled with central banking and politics is a recipe for disaster. This eventually lead to Great Depression and WW2. Yes, Germany really got their schnitzel muddied by the Versailles treaty war debt (270 billion today or so). Excluding that it's still evident that the central bankers - trying to further their own agenda/countries was able to impact markets, salaries, employment, prices, etc.

Today we talk about hyperbitcoinization and "the bitcoin standard". I am really curious how it could look when central banks once again peg their currency to a hard asset - promising stability. Would the same scenario play out or did we leave such things in the history books? Please help me think about it! Write your thoughts, I look forward to hear them =)

Every Due Diligence forgets ONE crucial addition factor, one you SHOULD know!

Dear Monkeys, Apes and Su Wukong(s),

I read new brilliant posts and contributions every day. Some that strengthen one post after the other, while other posts contributing and providing alternative insights of what is discussed. All in the best interests to help Monkey brain evolve into Ape brains and in a Su Wukong brain in the financial markets.

But we are forgetting one MASSIVE component in all equations! Mainstream media has continuously told "Humans" this is a bubble, its a meme stonk, its a Reddit rally, do not invest in this, institutional investors and advisors strongly oppose to not buy this stock and blablablaaaaaaabla and blabla.

What they forget... Is that our Monkey brains did our homework, we know what's going on.. But unlike Monkey brains "Human" brains do not have a retarded Monkey brains that like RedPorn or drink our own Yellow stuff like its a complete normal thing to do, they have a "Human" brain that has been poisoned.. Poisoned to believe that everything is fine and do not worry about what is going on with GameStop.

All this strong resistance by mainstream narrative becomes irrelevant for "Human" brain when they see the following event unfold:

Monday "xx"/03/2021 or sometime soon: GameStop has risen 30% today, yet again a strong rally by the bulls. Redditors have for sure caught our attention again today. But remember folks this is still a "meme" stock people, do not invest in it. It is dangerous!

Tuesday "xx"/03/2021 or sometime soon: GameStop that rallied yesterday with 30%, But GameStop now seems to be on yet another rally to break its All Time High(ATH) closing with 50% End Of Day(EOD).

Wednesday "xx"/03/2021 or sometime soon: Folks, its unbelievable, but yesterday GameStop increased its price towards "xxx" USD and we are closing today with another 20% gain.

Thursday "xx"/03/2021 or sometime soon: People watching this right now, your not going to believe me when I say this, but look at this chart. The growth of GameStop is unbelievable! It seems to be the same like Bitcoin going in a massive rally upwards.

By the time 3-4 days have spend, every news outlet has probably mentioned this rally for the 2nd time in 2 months period. But now its caught mainstream and also higher circles in 1000x fold. On Twitter, Facebook, Newspapers, Youtube, Instagram, TikTok, LinkedIn and you name it...

What do you think this does to Human brain? Everyone that can afford a piece of this stock at this price is going to wonder if they should liquidate their holdings in Apple, Microsoft etc. just to get a higher return of lets say 20-50-200% in a day or 2.

You can ask me what that might mean for the stock right? Options "In The Money" will be easily achieved and executed....

TLDR:

Once GME moon, people will rush in to throw their tendies at it as well, Hedge Funds and any other shorts might be roped, but Kerosene just put that rope on fire from below.

\The above is no financial advice, do not trade what you cannot afford to lose**

\This is your "money" and your OWN decision!*

**Still holding Diamond hands till Alpha Centuri*\*

Despite Bitcoin's lack of momentum, the surge in U.S. bond yields has brought increasing psychological pressure

Although new developments did occur yesterday, risk sentiment was generally under pressure and the foreign exchange market as a whole reacted coldly, although the risk of events that occurred this week has increased today due to the semi-annual testimony of Fed Chairman Powell. Powell’s suggestion that the Fed’s rate of return will rise will be closely watched, so Bitcoin’s trend is already clear.

It seems that those bitcoins went to multiple Coinbase custody wallets. US institutional investors are still buying Bitcoin at 48k. This is the strongest bullish signal I have ever seen.

Opinions and the facts about AAX Exchange and the AAB Token

First thing first : AAX Exchange is a new exchange and ı am aware about that.

But after the price dump after last flash sale, i didn't saw any struggle from team. So many people lost their trust on the exchange and the trust is the most important thing for a user. They did nothing to fix this situation. So many people claimed they sold what they have and it sounds logical to me too.

İt isn't look like an Exchange which has the London Stock Market behind it.

But after seeing the last movements on the price, that started to make me hopeful again. Of course if we ignore all the huge bull market going on. When ı am searching there are still some advertisements about AAX exchange that i see.

İn my opinion there will be another event like the last flash sale or better. And there is another thing that still makes me hopeful :

When you look at the bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies graph you will see similar movements after fork. After a huge bull run, all the prices starts to go down and market turned into a bear market.

İn that case i think it is time AAB Token to rise. Because i think the team is trading and making benefits from this bull market. And when the bear market starts AAB Token easily can takes peoples attention if the price will go above. And it is so easy to pump AAB Token because of so many reasons like the circulation supply, new users etc.

So, what are your thoughts about it? Do you agree with me? I don't have people who knows the crypto currencies and this kind of things around me. So, please share your thoughts with me. And also you can write me on private.

Why recent events will continue to fuel BTC and other crypto to Roaring 20s (x-post from /r/Bitcoin)

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/ltrlgl/why_recent_events_will_continue_to_fuel_btc_and/

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GET protocol puts an end to ticket scalping and more - in my opinion the most undervalued crypto project

Website: https://get-protocol.io
Artists who use GET
GET explainer video
Tradeable on: https://uniswap.info/token/0x8a854288a5976036a725879164ca3e91d30c6a1b

In my humble opinion GET protocol is the most undervalued crypto project when it comes to fundamentals, adoption, tokenomics and potential. Let me explain why:

GET protocol solves an enormous problem: ticket scalping

I think we're all tired of the practices in the ticketing space: bots buy up tickets instantly and then resell them 2x, 5x, 10x or even more the original ticket price. Fans lose, artists lose, venues lose, ... while the money ends up in the pocket of scalpers who don't add any value to the process.

The secondary ticketing market is worth $15 billion. How long will fans have to pay?

GET protocol elminates ticket scalping by linking the ticket to your mobile phone. This means that at entry to a concert, sports game, ... you are only permitted entry with your mobile phone.

They have sold over 600k tickets and not one was "scalped"

An example is famous Dutch artist Jochem Myjer who uses GET protocol integrator GUTS tickets:

https://twitter.com/jochemmyjer/status/1118589335060848641

“Weird how some venues still don’t get how great GUTS is. And are afraid of change. It’s easier for the audience. For artists there is no more reselling. And maaaany other advantages. #GoWithTheTimes”

The ticketing space is one where no one trusts another in terms of how many tickets were issued, what the original price was, ... It has been proven that even Ticketmaster themselves are involved in the scalping business. That's why blockchain is vital in all of this. The tickets are all registered on the blockchain as a mean of transparency and accountability. This means that fans can check ticket authenticity whenever they want and make sure that they aren't being taken for a ride.

Besides scalping it offers many more advantages to integrators:

Interaction with the ticket holders
Extra marketing tools
Data collection
Dynamic price setting
Merging of the primary and secondary market
...

GET protocol has a lot of adoption

As stated above, GUTS has sold 600k tickets using GET protocol. In the meanwhile more ticketing companies have started using it:

GUTS

Runs fully on the GET protocol and has sold over 600.000 tickets. Has grown into the biggest ticketeer in the Netherlands.
https://guts.tickets

ITIX

Established in 2009 and sells 2 million tickets/year. Is fully integrated in the GET protocol and will start selling GET-fueled tickets soon.
https://www.itix.nl

getTicket

A new ticketing company in South Korea that will run fully on the GET protocol. They already have deals with kpop stars to sell tickets for.
http://getticket.kr

TecTix

A Germany based ticketing company that will sell GET fueled tickets with a focus on the sports industry.
https://tec-tix.com

Wicket

The last to join is an Italian ticketing company. Despite being new they have already ticketed the Milano Wine festival in 2020 and will do so in 2021 as well. In 2019 this festival atracted more than 300.000 visitors.
https://www.wicketevents.com

Integrating an existing ticketing company is a low investment move (only the GET token is needed) that offers traditional ticketing companies several benefits. With the whitelabel that has just been released, which makes it easy for any ticketing company to start using GET, I expect many ticketing companies to integrate and GET to scale quickly.

Here are the requests they had received by end of 2019:

https://preview.redd.it/b75h9l6s5uj61.jpg?width=700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3dbf2e0233ca2364067014daaee642a472b470df

GET tokenomics

The GET tokenomics are built so that for every ticket issued 0,28€ (or 0,34$) worth of GET is needed by the ticketeers. They buy most of this from exchanges and a minority they get subsidized from the User Grotwh Fund. In 2020 around 70% was bought directly from exchanges.

In 2020 ticketing volume in general was down like 90–99% due to corona. Yet GET managed to sell over 236k tickets. Or an increase of 27% compared to 2019.

This is a major indicator of their usecase being needed: despite covid19 they grew a lot and conquered a lot of marketshare from traditional ticketeers.

Tokenomics to push the price

If GUTS was able to sell 236k tickets in a year where ticketing volume is down at least 90% then I think it’s safe to assume that they’ll sell over 3 million tickets/year once everything is allowed again.

Add the new ticketing companies that integrated GET recently (getticket in Korea, Wicket Events in Italy and Tectix in Germany) and you’ll understand that we’ll be seeing millions of tickets processed by the GET protocol.

I’m willing to bet that we’ll see at least 5 million tickets in 2022:

5 million \ 0,28 * 0,7 = €980.000 in buybacks or around 1,2 million $*

You can imagine what buybacks of 100k $ each month will do to such a smallcap, especialy considering that all this bought GET is burned after usage.

If the price would remain stable we’d see 5 million GET burned, or 25% of the entire supply (SF of 13 million will be burned soon anyway as it isn’t used so I don’t consider that as supply).

Of course the price will not remain stable as with such an increase in buybacks & burns, GET will be recognised as truely deflationary through real world usage.

NFT tickets that will revolutionise ticketing

As of this month all tickets issued by the GET protocol will become NFT’s

Over 60.000 sold tickets (that haven’t ben scanned yet for the event) will be minted as NFT’s this month. This means that tickets, after scanning can become collectables. But so much more:

Here's my take on why GET protocol's smart and blockchain registered tickets becoming NFT's will revolutionize the ticketing industry.

After the DeFi hype we’ve witnessed last year, the next hype in crypto that seems to be developing are NFT’s. In this case it isn’t about riding the hype. Tickets being NFT’s on the blockchain really makes sense and it will change ticketing as we know it. Let me explain…

So what’s a NFT exactly? NFT stands for non fungible token. This is a token that’s unique on the blockchain and not mutually interchangeable. This in contrast to for example Bitcoin where it doesn’t matter which Bitcoin you have (1 BTC = 1 BTC). Every ticket issued by the GET protocol will become a getNFT.

https://preview.redd.it/ybpfse7t5uj61.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d0b5fde350334b53b0022f6f7c84abe2c845191

getNFTs are indivisible, meaning that a getNFT can only be held by 1 address at the same time. This ensures that whoever owns a certain NFT will be the only one to decrypt the QR code.

Eventhough GET’s NFT’s will be the most used, bought & traded NFT’s in the crypto space the goal isn’t to ride the hype. Ticketing + NFT = a match made in heaven. And here’s why:

As every ticket on the blockchain will become a NFT and thus unqiue, it will allow non custodial ownership of the ticket asset. This gives many interesting advantages but 2 stand out for me personally: P2P ticket trading & DeFi event financing.

P2P ticket trading
NFT’s will allow P2P ticket trading and GET’s almost done building it! Peer to peer ticket trading means that everyone who owns a getNFT ticket will be able to trade it with another “peer”. This will happen in a closed and regulated ecosystem. This means that certain rules can be set by the event organizer. For example:

The ticket can be sold for only x% profit
x% of the trade profit goes to the event organizer
a certain trading fee goes to the event organizer
…

This will be the first and only ticketing system that will allow ticket trading while at the same time making scalping impossible. Regulators have been struggling for a long time to solve this problem and what seemed impossible to achieve will be made possible by smart contracts! The impact of this will be huge and will change the ticketing space for the better.Additionally and not unimportantly it will give the event organizer an extra revenue stream. The money that right now for a large part goes to scalpers (the secondary ticket market is worth $15B) will be tapped into by the event organizers.

Why this is important

The advantage for GET holders is twofold:

The P2P market will atract more users (artists, venues, ticketing companies) of the GET protocol (= more GET needed in the primary market)
every ticket exchanged in the secondary market is an additional statechange (= more GET needed)

Event financing
Without a doubt one of the most promising and exciting things to look forward to in 2021 is the introduction of decentralized event financing to GET Protocol.Event organizers often struggle to get financing for their events. This doesn’t only apply to starting artists, but even to famous stars. The artists need to have a lot of capital in advance as they have to pay for the venues, organisation, … upfront while only receiving the money after the show is over. Enter GET’s DeFi solution!

The pre-financing of events for event-organizers is not a solution looking for a problem; it’s a widely known and used tool that enables event organizers to make the investments needed to get their shows or festivals off the ground.In the past we have encountered Event Organizers who select their ticketing partner solely based on the amount of money and loan conditions that they are offered up front.

Thanks to getNFT tickets you’ll be able to pre-finance events of your choice. You can choose to finance new artists (more risk/more APY) or established kpop stars (less risk/less APY).

This is how it will work:

https://preview.redd.it/w4jefllu5uj61.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=533865b6f7d35c0f5491f2bc3fa0b666328e4047

If the concept seems complicated, here’s what you need to understand about GET’s decentralized financing solution:1.) Event organizers will be able to easily pre-finance their events. (Something they desperately crave.)2.) Investors will be able to invest in events of their choice, at a risk & reward level that they feel comfortable with.3.) The $GET token is an integral part of the financing process, as it is required for ‘skin in the game’ from

The advantage event financing for GET token holders will bring is again twofold:

As a GET holder you’ll be able to finance events and share in the profit of the ticket sales. This means that GET will allow you to profit without selling = passive income. An important note is that this is profit without inflation. While other DeFi projects give you returns by increasing the supply (and thus decreasing the value of the token) the returns here will not increase the GET supply, as the returns come from real profit(ticket sales).
As the GET token will be an integral part of this process, it will:- increase the buy pressure of the GET token (everyone who wants to participate will need GET)- decrease the supply (everyone who participates will have to locks his GET tokens).

For a deeper insight I recommend the blog below:

https://medium.com/get-protocol/decentralizing-event-financing-liquidity-x-defi-x-nfts-975f028135f5

GET protocol will be decentralised

The endgoal of the GET protocol is to become open source and decentralised. There will be a governance model where changes to the protocol will be determined by GET token holders. That’s why I expect ticketing companies to acquire a lot of GET in time as their revenue relies on the direction of the protocol.

Why Do Bitcoins Have Value?

Bitcoin offers an efficient means of transferring money over the internet and is controlled by a decentralized network with a transparent set of rules, thus presenting an alternative to central bank-controlled fiat money. There has been a lot of talk about how to price Bitcoin and we set out here to explore what the cryptocurrency's price might look like in the event it achieves further widespread adoption.

First, however, it is useful to back up a step. Bitcoin and other digital currencies have been touted as alternatives to fiat money. But what gives any type of currency value?

Why Currencies Have Value

Currency is usable if it is a store of value, or, put differently, if it can reliably be counted on to maintain its relative value over time and without depreciating. In many societies throughout history, commodities or precious metals were used as methods of payment because they were seen as having a relatively stable value. Rather than require individuals to carry around cumbersome quantities of cocoa beans, gold or other early forms of currency, however, societies eventually turned to minted currency as an alternative. Still, the reason many examples of minted currency were usable was because they were reliable stores of value, having been made out of metals with long shelf lives and little risk of depreciation.

In the modern age, minted currencies often take the form of paper money which does not have the same intrinsic value as coins made from precious metals. Perhaps even more likely, though, individuals utilize electronic currency and payment methods. Some types of currencies rely on the fact that they are "representative," meaning that each coin or note can be directly exchanged for a specified amount of a commodity. However, as countries left the gold standard in an effort to curb concerns about runs on federal gold supplies, many global currencies are now classified as fiat. Fiat currency is issued by a government and not backed by any commodity, but rather by the faith that individuals and governments have that parties will accept that currency. Today, most major global currencies are fiat. Many governments and societies have found that fiat currency is the most durable and least likely to be susceptible to deterioration or loss of value over time.

Traits of Money

Scarcity, Divisibility, Utility, and Transferability

Aside from the question of whether it is a store of value, a successful currency must also meet qualifications related to scarcity, divisibility, utility, transportability, durability, and counterfeitability. Let's look at these qualities one at a time.

1) Scarcity

The key to the maintenance of a currency's value is its supply. A money supply that is too large could cause prices of goods to spike, resulting in economic collapse. A money supply that is too small can also cause economic problems. Monetarism is the macroeconomic concept which aims to address the role of the money supply in the health and growth (or lack thereof) in an economy.

In the case of fiat currencies, most governments around the world continue to print money as a means of controlling scarcity. Many governments operate with a preset amount of inflation which serves to drive the value of the fiat currency down. In the U.S., for instance, this rate has historically hovered around 2%. This is different from bitcoin, which has a flexible issuance rate which changes over time.

2) Divisibility

Successful currencies are divisible into smaller incremental units. In order for a single currency system to function as a medium of exchange across all types of goods and values within an economy, it must have the flexibility associated with this divisibility. The currency must be sufficiently divisible so as to accurately reflect the value of every good or service available throughout the economy.

3) Utility

A currency must-have utility in order to be effective. Individuals must be able to reliably trade units of the currency for goods and services. This is a primary reason why currencies developed in the first place: so that participants in a market could avoid having to barter directly for goods. Utility also requires that currencies be easily moved from one location to another. Burdensome precious metals and commodities don't easily meet this stipulation.

4) Transportability

Currencies must be easily transferred between participants in an economy in order to be useful. In fiat currency terms, this means that units of currency must be transferable within a particular country's economy as well as between nations via exchange.

5) Durability

To be effective, a currency must be at least reasonably durable. Coins or notes made out of materials that can easily be mutilated, damaged, or destroyed, or which degrade over time to the point of being unusable, are not sufficient.

6) Counterfeitability

Just as a currency must be durable, it must also be difficult to counterfeit in order to remain effective. If not, malicious parties could easily disrupt the currency system by flooding it with fake bills, thereby negatively impacting the currency's value.

To assess Bitcoin's value as a currency, we'll compare it against fiat currencies in each of the above categories.

Bitcoin Compared Against Fiat Currencies

1) Scarcity

When Bitcoin was launched in 2009, its developer(s) stipulated in the protocol that the supply of tokens would be capped at 21 million.5 To give some context, the current supply of bitcoin is around 18 million, the rate at which Bitcoin is released decreases by half roughly every four years, and the supply should get past 19 million in the year 2022. This assumes that the protocol will not be changed. Note that changing the protocol would require the concurrence of a majority of the computing power engaged in Bitcoin mining, meaning that it is unlikely.

The approach to supply that Bitcoin has adopted is different from most fiat currencies. The global fiat money supply is often thought of as broken into different buckets, M0, M1, M2, and M3. M0 refers to currency in circulation. M1 is M0 plus demand deposits like checking accounts. M2 is M1 plus savings accounts and small time deposits (known as certificates of deposit in the United States). M3 is M2 plus large time deposits and money market funds. Since M0 and M1 are readily accessible for use in commerce, we will consider these two buckets as medium of exchange, whereas M2 and M3 will be considered as money being used as a store of value. As part of their monetary policy, most governments maintain some flexible control over the supply of currency in circulation, making adjustments depending upon economic factors. This is not the case with Bitcoin. So far, the continued availability of more tokens to be generated has encouraged a robust mining community, though this is liable to change significantly as the limit of 21 million coins is approached. What exactly will happen at that time is difficult to say; an analogy would be to imagine the U.S. government suddenly ceased to produce any new bills. Fortunately, the last Bitcoin is not scheduled to be mined until around the year 2140. Generally, scarcity can drive value higher. This can be seen with precious metals like gold.

2) Divisibility

21 million Bitcoins is vastly smaller than the circulation of most fiat currencies in the world. Fortunately, Bitcoin is divisible up to 8 decimal points. The smallest unit, equal to 0.00000001 Bitcoin, is called a "Satoshi" after the pseudonymous developer behind the cryptocurrency. This allows for quadrillions of individual units of Satoshis to be distributed throughout a global economy.

One bitcoin has a much larger degree of divisibility than the U.S. dollar as well as most other fiat currencies. While the U.S. dollar can be divided into cents, or 1/100 of 1 USD, one "Satoshi" is just 1/100,000,000 of 1 BTC. It is this extreme divisibility which makes bitcoin's scarcity possible; if bitcoin continues to gain in price over time, users with tiny fractions of a single bitcoin can still take part in everyday transactions. Without any divisibility, a price of, say, $1,000,000 for 1 BTC would prevent the currency being used for most transactions.

3) Utility

One of the biggest selling points of Bitcoin has been its use of blockchain technology. Blockchain is a distributed ledger system that is decentralized and trustless, meaning that no parties participating in the Bitcoin market need to establish trust in one another in order for the system to work properly. This is possible thanks to an elaborate system of checks and verifications which is central to the maintenance of the ledger and to the mining of new Bitcoins. Best of all, the flexibility of blockchain technology means that it has utility outside of the cryptocurrency space as well.

4) Transportability

Thanks to cryptocurrency exchanges, wallets, and other tools, Bitcoin is transferable between parties within minutes, regardless of the size of the transaction with very low costs. The process of transferring money in the current system can take days at a time and have fees. Transferability is a hugely important aspect of any currency. While it takes vast amounts of electricity to mine Bitcoin, maintain the blockchain, and process digital transactions, individuals do not typically hold any physical representation of Bitcoin in the process.

5) Durability

Durability is a major issue for fiat currencies in their physical form. A dollar bill, while sturdy, can still be torn, burned, or otherwise rendered unusable. Digital forms of payment are not susceptible to these physical harms in the same way. For this reason, bitcoin is tremendously valuable. It cannot be destroyed in the same way that a dollar bill could be. That's not to say, however, that bitcoin cannot be lost. If a user loses his or her cryptographic key, the bitcoins in the corresponding wallet may be effectively unusable on a permanent basis. However, the bitcoin itself will not be destroyed and will continue to exist in records on the blockchain.

6) Counterfeitability

Thanks to the complicated, decentralized blockchain ledger system, bitcoin is incredibly difficult to counterfeit. Doing so would essentially require confusing all participants in the Bitcoin network, no small feat. The only way that one would be able to create a counterfeit bitcoin would be by executing what is known as a double spend. This refers to a situation in which a user "spends" or transfers the same bitcoin in two or more separate settings, effectively creating a duplicate record. While this is not a problem with a fiat currency note—it is impossible to spend the same dollar bill in two or more separate transactions—it is theoretically possible with digital currencies.

What makes a double spend unlikely, though, is the size of the Bitcoin network. A so-called 51% attack, in which a group of miners theoretically control more than half of all network power, would be necessary. By controlling a majority of all network power, this group could dominate the remainder of the network to falsify records. However, such an attack on Bitcoin would require an overwhelming amount of effort, money, and computing power, thereby rendering the possibility extremely unlikely.

Bitcoin Challenges

Generally, Bitcoin holds up fairly well in the above categories when compared against fiat currencies. So what are the challenges facing Bitcoin as a currency?

One of the biggest issues is Bitcoin's status as a store of value. Bitcoin's utility as a store of value is dependent on its utility as a medium of exchange. We base this in turn on the assumption that for something to be used as a store of value it needs to have some intrinsic value, and if Bitcoin does not achieve success as a medium of exchange, it will have no practical utility and thus no intrinsic value and won't be appealing as a store of value. Like fiat currencies, Bitcoin is not backed by any physical commodity or precious metal. Throughout much of its history, the current value of Bitcoin has been driven primarily by speculative interest. Bitcoin has exhibited characteristics of a bubble with drastic price run-ups and a craze of media attention. This is likely to decline as Bitcoin continues to see greater mainstream adoption, but the future is uncertain.

Bitcoin's utility and transferability are challenged by difficulties surrounding the cryptocurrency storage and exchange spaces. In recent years, digital currency exchanges have been plagued by hacks, thefts and fraud. Of course, thefts also occur in the fiat currency world as well. In those cases, however, regulation is much more settled, providing somewhat more straightforward means of redress. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more broadly are still viewed as more of a "Wild West" setting when it comes to regulation. Different governments view Bitcoin in dramatically different ways, and the repercussions for Bitcoin's adoption as a global currency are significant.

How Much Would Bitcoin Have to Be Worth to Rival Fiat Currencies?

In order to place a value on Bitcoin we need to project what market penetration it will achieve in each sphere. This article will not make a case for what the market penetration will be, but for the sake of the evaluation, we'll pick a rather arbitrary value of 15%, both for bitcoin as a currency and bitcoin as a store of value. You are encouraged to form your own opinion for this projection and adjust the valuation accordingly.

The simplest way to approach the model would be to look at the current worldwide value of all mediums of exchange and of all stores of value comparable to bitcoin, and calculate the value of bitcoin's projected percentage. The predominant medium of exchange is government backed money, and for our model we will focus solely on them.

Roughly speaking, M1 (which includes M0) is currently worth about 4.9 trillion U.S. dollars, which will serve as our current worldwide value of mediums of exchange.

M3 (which includes all the other buckets) minus M1 is worth about 45 trillion U.S. dollars. We will include this as a store of value that is comparable to bitcoin. To this, we will also add an estimate for the worldwide value of gold held as a store of value. While some may use jewelry as a store of value, for our model we will only consider gold bullion. The U.S. Geological Survey estimated that at the end of 1999, there were about 122,000 metric tons of available above-ground gold. Of this, 48%, or 58,560 metric tons, was in the form of private and official bullion stocks. At an estimated current price of $1,200 per troy ounce, that amount of gold is today worth upwards of 2.1 trillion U.S. dollars. Since there has in recent years been a deficit in the supply of silver and governments have been selling significant amounts of their silver bullion, we reason that most silver is being used in industry and not as a store of value, and will not include silver in our model. Neither will we treat other precious metals or gemstones. In aggregate, our estimate for the global value of stores of value comparable to bitcoin, including savings accounts, small and large time deposits, money market funds, and gold bullion, come to 47.1 trillion U.S. dollars.

Our total estimate for global value of mediums of exchange and stores of value thus comes to 52.1 trillion U.S. dollars. If Bitcoin were to achieve 15% of this valuation, its market capitalization in today's money would be 10.8 trillion U.S. dollars. With all 21 million bitcoin in circulation, that would put the price of 1 Bitcoin at $514,000.

This is a rather simple long term model. Perhaps the biggest question it hinges on is exactly how much adoption will Bitcoin achieve? Coming up with a value for the current price of Bitcoin would involve pricing in the risk of low adoption or failure of Bitcoin as a currency, which could include being displaced by one or more other digital currencies. Models often consider the velocity of money, frequently arguing that since Bitcoin can support transfers that take less than an hour, the velocity of money in the future Bitcoin ecosystem will be higher than the current average velocity of money. Another view on this though would be that velocity of money is not restricted by today's payment rails in any significant way and that its main determinant is the need or willingness of people to transact. Therefore, the projected velocity of money could be treated as roughly equal to its current value.

Another angle at modeling the price of Bitcoin, and perhaps a useful one for the near-to-medium term, would be to look at specific industries or markets one thinks it could impact or disrupt and think about how much of that market could end up using Bitcoin. The World Bitcoin Network provides a nifty tool for doing just that.

Paid signals and their true value, short summary of experience and post mortem analysis

There are more and more people offering 'signals' and 'Telegram groups', 'Direct signals to the bots' for a monthly fee, ranging from 5-10US to 0.1 BTC depending on the seller.

FIRST OF ALL ALWAYS PUT THE BITCOIN ADDRESS OF ANYONE THAT ASKS YOU FOR A PAYMENT IN GOOGLE. There are several websites with a list of BTC addresses of known scammers, with comments on their behavior, etc... IF ON IT, DROP IT.

I have tested a few, and I asked for some others to forward to me the signals they got for a couple of weeks.

If the publicly advertised results are impressive +250% in a month, +400% in a month, the truth is not that.

Some people add the signal percentages, I am not fucking kidding. So Signal 1 gave 10%, Signal 2 gave 20%, Signal 3 -5%, Signal 4 +20% and the 'results per month' become '45%' as an example in the signal provider statistics.

Well it is not quite correct in terms of basic mathematics. Signal percentages do not add up to give the 'profit' per month. Eventually, Signal 1 with profit can be reinvested in Signal 2, then 3, then 4. But most of the time, it is just impossible, and I checked that, just in case. Signal 1 would take 10 days sometimes, the 2 is given 2 days after signal 1, so it is a different investment, etc...

The signals give several things. The current price, the price to buy in a fork, 1-2-3-4 targets, and the stoploss signal.

There are several versions, like 'made with artificial intelligence', or 'with special insider informations', or 'highly skilled analysts'. The truth is that a lot of signals are a one man show, 1 person behind and inside the company. Some may have 2-3 people, but that's the maximum as far as my investigations went ( and I did investigate several very popular ones).

The second truth is that most of them are based on TradingView indicators only, as soon as they wake up as a 'buy' or 'strong buy' for the whole, for one of the 'big 3' of Trading view, or for some of the parameters inside Tradingview, you are good to go! Some will make a chart and put some nice lines, resistance, dildomove, etc... but in fact, depending on the scale of the chart, you can get it to say pretty much anything, goes up, goes down, support level, resistance level. There are many support levels and resistance levels that can be calculated. A few psychological ones are however reall ( 50k for BTC, 1US for ADA are famous, real examples). As well, 'TA' will process sometimes charts of pumped coins, or coins that got some momentum due to special events, or completely artificial curves made by the coin developers to sell a max of coins before folding.

It gives some funny things, to say the least

The 'UP' and 'DOWN' are 'oversold' or overbought' so they are part of the signals given. What the fuck, if sometimes a BTCUP or BTCDOWN is over sold or overbought, it is because of the main component, BTC. So you get shit like ETHDOWN 'oversold' when ETH was climbing nonstop and automated signals bought a shitload of ETHDOWN because it was oversold, normal no one would be stupid enough to take ETHDOWN when it was climbing nonstop a couple weeks ago. Those tokens UP/DOWN are by nature very dangerous. As an example you buy ETHDOWN at x when ETH is at 1800. ETH goes to 2000, and back to 1800, ETHDOWN has lost a lot of value already, it is a token, and there is a price erosion. If I remember well, from 1800 (point of wrongly buying ETHDOWN) to 2000, to not loose value on ETHDOWN, ETH had to go down BACK to something like 1600 not to loose money and just get even on it.
BTCDOWN was 'overbought' on monday, just when the crash started, so it was not 'recommended' at all. Normal that it was overbought because it allowed to make a profit on the crash of BTC. So, for the UP and DOWN from Binance, the signals are deadly fucking dangerous.
The new market coins appear like fuck on the signals, because they are oversold, because the curve is truly nice from the 'beginning' of the curve (sure when they are 1-2-3 days old...). Not many people buying when the initial pumps goes down (normal, people are not idiots), nice very up going down, so... 'OVERSOLD', more FUCKED ALL OVER. Reason, it starts, jumps skyhigh, and goes down like hell. So quite a few signals, from 3 different paid suppliers gave as an example ACM as a sure winner, target of 10 15 20% on the 25th of february. Price was about 17.5. Since that, it crashed nicely to 12.8, without EVER going close to those original7.5. That's what we call being fucked deep. It might be possible that ACM goes to 20, I do not discuss that, in a few days, weeks, or months, but it would be just like playing the lottery, WOW that one is nice, I bid on it, and it will make 10% sooner or later, would give similar odds for a profit, not what people pay for, and not what people want when they play with crypto and do not go to the casino with the same money. As it is a football club token, except extreme pump, it will take a long time before it goes up again. But FUCK I forgot, there were stoplosses in the signal, so no, buy 17,5, stoploss at 14. Nice nearly 20% loss.
We have some mysteries, like REEF, it was a grand favorite of the signals, at its peak. EGLD as well. Signals appeared close or at the ATH, buy fast, go up 10-20-25% for the 3 beautiful targets, stoploss. People let the fucking signals on a bot, bought at the ATH, stoploss at 10 15%, automatic sale. Money lost. Was it a total fuck up by the signals, was it to be part of a pump for those coins, mystery, mystery. The world of Signals is very shady, especially as a good surgeon is known, Bill Gates is known, but the persons behind the Signals are usually very well hidden or quite obscure. Some have a kind of 'public profile', so I contacted 1-2. The first question was how many BTC do I want to invest with their signals? Bad question, if I want to play with 10US and pay them 0.05BTC a month for their signals, it is MY problem. not theirs. Photos and names do not mean anything on internet, anyway.
One of the point of some signal providers to ask you how much you plan to invest is to eventually direct you on market they or their whales friends are heavily engaged. So you can end up with a shitcoin that did in the past +20% on a regular basis, low volume, or low trading, signal tells you to buy, and you buy from the whales. It is another form of scam, in truth. If you want to invest 1,2,5 BTC with them, they will buy coins, tell you to buy those specific ones, milk you, and the price goes down. Even 10% is already a good job. You do not know if the signal provider is in a tower in New York or in a remote area of Lagos or Bangkok...
Some signals are made to join a pump in progress, so many bots that are configured to take up the signals automatically, such as 3Commas, will pick it up, buy, and join the pump. Even at the 'limit order' price, it is already way too high, and soon down. Those signals always tend to go down by 2-3-4-7% after, and eventually they go up after some hours and days. That is... if you do not configure the Stoploss
To be realistic, if the signals give 300-500% profit per month as they said, they would be better off USING them rather than selling them. Easy money, and by now they should be so rich right? One company that did provide signals to their customers actually did exactly that, so I believe they were quite good. They stopped last year to supply signals to their customers, and said they do everything internally for themselves as of now. It was a HFT based company with really powerful analytical tools apparently.

It is very clear too that some companies who have a lot of customers for automatic signals have as well customers in the pumpers, who say, well pass that in the signals, it will always make idiots who buy and make volume, help the pump.

People are impressed by the signals because they give a profit in quite a lot of cases. But looking at them well, it can be very obvious, and that's why it fucks up a lot of time too. A curve going up after a down, give a fucking signal, target, the previous up of the curve and bye. Sometimes of course it goes down, and down. REEF at 0.049 was 'logical' as it was low went to 0.056. Well, since that day, REEF never went anywhere close to 0.049, and hitted the stoploss at 0.04 of course.

So basically, playing the lottery or using the signals for 'big' targets is pretty much the same. Signals, like scalping signals, can be 'more reliable for 0.7-1.2% per operation, as long as the Limit order is low enough. But it is possible to do it yourself just looking at the chart, and sometimes, yet it fucks up. A good BNBDOWN when it went slightly down, but goes up like hell, and you will never get your 1% profit, but your 3% or 5% stoploss.

So much for the signals on the 'SPOT' market.

Some are more ambitious, and you can get a much bigger topfuck. They give signals for Futures and DERIBIT. This is then the TOTAL FUCKING LOTTERY in the signals. Losses of 30-200% and more are very common. The game then is that they make a lot of signals, with stoplosses and 'targets', and the average per month will show sometimes huge profits, and many times huge losses. It is again a casino game, put up that, down this, calculate how much those fuckers can loose if I am wrong, then I cannot be wrong all the time, so let's calculate how much here, stoploss here, and if I am lucky they will earn more than they loose at the end of the week or end of the month. So it is pure chance, and you could ask a Bonobo monkey to choose the prices, targets and stoploss for Deribit and Finances, you would be as safe as with the paid signals. Sometimes there are obvious, like well BTC goes down, it goes down again, so let's try 48600 47900 and 47400 for the targets on a short. But for this, you can do it yourself ( and get fucked yourself) for free. Futures/Short/Deribit are deadly, but still signals do give it.

There is another reason too why some signals company give those 3. When there is a profit, it is massive, so the 'average per month' if you 'follow their strategy' can be positive. If they are lucky 3-4 times on Deribit with BTC, and 2-3 times with ETH or XRP, then, it compensates for a lot of 'spot market' signals that fucked up with a 5-10-15% stoploss.

A lot of the signals as well give extremely high results for some of their signals, but it can be related as well to 'trailing', that is quite... random to say the least. So they give a signal with 3 targets, and give the results with 'trailing profit', that was not mentioned in the first place. In truth, they calculate back from the curve what the trailing could have done. Because trailing profit is nice, but sometimes it goes quickly to the target price, then down and down again, and trailing is not activated. Sometimes too for the 'scalping' with 1% profit, a trailing of 0.5% + can make you loose most if not all of the profit ( when the bot does not calculate the trading platform fees, as an example...).

Overall, we see a lot of bots/paid signals combinations that give a total, properly calculated profit of 3%, 5% per month, 2% per month, 2% per week. If you look at the paid signal offer in 3Commas, it is very honestly mentioned ( more than on most signal websites, I have t osay) It looks 'fun and safe' but it is not, because it is an average per month on the last 6 months or 1 year. To make 3% per month, watch ETH or whatever fucking coin go up, use 1/3 of your portfolio, all in when it is sure safe ( like BNB 2 weeks ago, and not yet the BTC crash), wait 30 min, you have your 3% per month in 5 minutes.

So, how does it work really?

The answer is bleak. You CAN reach those wonderful automatic 2,3,5% per month if you use their -signal and bots but on several conditions:

- Some months can be 8%, some others -3%.

- You need to follow their 'strategy' and buy each time they give a signal. At a point, you need many times MUCH more money than your total account, to bring it to 3%. As an example, a lot of the signals need as well to add up when the coin goes down, 1,2,3 times. This is not taken into account, but if you do not do it like that, instead of 5% profit in 5 days, it can be 5% profit in 4 weeks. If you loose 200 or 500% on Binance Futures or Deribit, it is not taken into account immediately, but it is summed up at the end of the month, so you needed more money to continue to follow their signals, as you lost 200% 2-3 times in the month, and earned 1 time 80 and 2-3 times maybe 180 to 220%. Tricky, but it means that you need more money, or you need to spare at least half of your invested money to compensate Deribit and other Stoplosses fuck up. Then the total at the end of the month 'might be' a profit.

However, most signal companies will brag about their 200-300% profit per month, or at least 30-40% per month, It is simply not true ( removing the Deribit, but you better play the lottery if you follow such signals!).

To increase your portfolio in a less risky way, and after all with the same result, assuming you do not want or do not have the time to check and think each trad yourself, you have too options that I found work well

TradingView Buy/Strong Buy signals. In truth, that's what a lot of signals companies sell to you, with 'targets' and 'stoplosses' added.

CQS Scalping Free is working very well for 1% target, it is quite fast. For 2% targets it can take longer time, set up a stoploss at 3% in both cases. The volume will make up for the few losses that occurs.

This said putting both side by side, there is no difference in the end of the month result. On good times, you can make a couple times 1% profit on your whole investment per day.

In ALL cases blacklist in your bots ALL the UP AND DOWN. They are high risk and most of the time fuck up when they are given by signals.

The best is to look yourself at the curves, RSI, see a bit the 'trend' of the curves, and have realistic targets. A lot of the 'big spikes' are in fact pumps by a group of people, sometimes the coin largest owners/developers, sometimes a whale, so in both cases, do not have any FOMO because most are totally unpredictible, like FIO right now in progress

About the 'pump and dump' 'signals' they are always a scam, coins are bought before by the organizers, then they are sold to everyone that participate in the pump at the fixed time. Everyone is instructed to buy at market price, then 'make a sell wall', 'start the fomo in the groups', 'promote the coin'. It is of course total bullshit, the only thing that happens is that the organizers made before a sell wall, anyone who enters buys at market price, that goes up like hell in 1 minute, because no one other than the organizers is selling, and by the time 20-30 seconds have been spent, people realize it starts to go down. End of the story, and the coin never goes back to its high levels. NEVER buy anything at market price when people tell you to do so, otherwise you buy from them, at the price they like to have.

Another pump and dump scam is to promote heavily a coin on many places, Reddit, forums, GRindr, Telegram, as a 'genius coin', like EGLD. REEF, and many minor coins. Then people buy progressively a shitcoin at the price the organizers/developers want it, over some days. It goes up, as the organizers arrange a bot to get the prices up and up, then after a while, it just crashes, and byebye. In some cases, they decide to make a SECOND slow pump, it is time to sell the coins

DOGE was another coin ( that was fucking a lot of signals as well, at 0.06 0.07 entry point, and 10-20% target profit, and maybe my ass is a mortar?), that is bot piloted, to generate FOMO. People simply buy it, and it goes down to a lower level, then the organizers make it pump, people buy it, etc... It was fun and high risk to buy at around 0.04xxx and put 10-20% profit, it worked. But maybe next time, it does not, and it goes down to 0.035. People take the risk they want anyway.

Another useful tool when using signals and internet recommendation is a traffic cone. I give below the example of its use, it is very high tech.