Picking Winners with Coinmarkcal (that's not a typo)

In a bull market, it's not hard to turn a profit, but if you want to maximise your gains then you'll need to seek those coins that will pump harder than others. Yeah, you could jump on the latest meme coin trend and buy a ton of ELONJIZZDOGE or whatever, but probably the best way is to take note of upcoming events, launches, and so on.

Take Cardano for example. Everyone here seems either totally surprised or pleasantly vindicated by its recent performance. Some of us, however, just saw that they were doing the Alonzo hard fork on September 12th and knew that, in a bull market, there was no way this wasn't going to pump hard.

Likewise, take BMON. It's yet another stupid crypto game but for some reason it's absolutely mooned over the past few days. Why? Because it launches on August 28th. When you know that, you can buy it, ride it, and get off before the launch.

In other words, projects that have something big in the pipeline moon hard in the days and weeks leading up to it. For things like a Bitcoin halvening or the last Ethereum update, it's big news and everyone who isn't living under a rock knows about it.

But what about the rare gems?

One great tool I've been using for a few years is Coinmarketcal.com. Nope, that's not a typo. Everytime I try to visit it, my browser warns me it could be a scam because it's so similar to Coinmarketcap.com, but this "cal" is short for "calendar."

It's basically a list of upcoming events. Much of it is crap, of course, but you can search through all that to find some amazing buys. I used it to find the ADA and BMON events and it's paid off nicely.

So for those of you who didn't already know it, that's my gift. I'm not affiliated with them and there's no referral code or anything. Just wanted to share a cool method of finding the next pump. Of course, this is not financial advice and you should all DYOR etc etc etc.

Good luck. May the crypto gods shine on your portfolio.

Next move --- focus or diversify?

Ok I've got a nice bag each of algo and ada (and a little bit of eth) and am looking into investing either more in them (focus approach), or diversify into a third blockchain. Have been looking into Solana (got cold feet after recent Luna Yield event) and VET (seems a lot of people don't like it).

Have I missed any good opportunities out there? I mean a separate Blockchain ecosystem not add-ons. Since I don't like PoW mining for environmental reasons (been there and hate that), I don't do Bitcoin or other energy hungry projects. Thanks for your helpful discussion in advancd.

PGSharp Modified App - Easy to Setup, Works up to Android 11, Has a Free and Paid version, New Raid Feed (paid feature) [August 22, 2021]

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[1] Always download and use the PGSharp.apk file from WWW.PGSHARP.COM because it is the safest place to get it from!

If you download the app outside of their website, you are at risk for having your account and financial information stolen, sold, or used. I cannot help you recover your account. You are also stuck with the bill if they use your debit/credit card to buy $20,000 worth of Poke Coins.

[2] PGSharp app cannot be discussed in Pokedex100 & PokeXperience Discord groups.

PGSharp app is a competing app against iPogo and Xspoofer. The two modified iOS apps are partners with the Discord group mentioned above. iOS modified apps used to be the king of easy to install to start spoofing right away. They don't hold the crown anymore because Apple constantly revokes their certificate that prevents them from being easy to install on iPhones and iPads. PGSharp holds the crown now because the Android OS system does not require certificate bullshit system that Apple has for its apps. If you get banned from any Discord group, I cannot help you get unbanned!

[3] PGSharp is banned in r/PokemonGoSpoofing.

The automod has been program to remove any posts or comments that reference to PGSHARP. TastyBananaPeppers, and PogoAndroidSpoofing. No one will be able to see your post or comment unless you bypass the filter. The main mod is still busy playing everyone's dad and not being there for you when you need him to be. This does not make sense because he does not play the game and is rarely active. I used to be a moderator under him back in 2018 to March 2020, and he has not changed at all. This is why r/PoGoAndroidSpoofing exists, a place for all Android spoofing methods.

[4] PGSharp is not my app.

I left this part out of the guide last time to shorten it but now, I have to include it again because someone hired a lawyer to tried to sue me for their time loss when PGSharp was down and that person couldn't do a ticketed event. I thought this guy was trolling me, but it turns out to be legit. I made his lawyer clock in roughly 20 hours by making him show proof that his laws weren't made up. The lawyer actually provided screenshots and pictures from a real law book and site. Lawyers are very expensive and will charge hundreds of dollars per hour. The lawyer end up billing his cilent $4,700 for wasting his time because the client was upset and refused to read the information I provided in the PGSharp guide and Mega Post despite directing him to read it multiple times.

[5] Why is PGSharp allowed here but banned in PokemonGoSpoofing?

You can read about the important parts in my MEGA Post: https://www.reddit.com/r/PoGoAndroidSpoofing/comments/p9ir2w/clickpress_here_mega_post_3_everything_you_need/ where I tell you about my subreddit and myself along with other frequently asked questions about this topic.

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[1] Pgsharp added a new raid feed feature for paid key users. You access it by going into your feed then selecting raids. You can also customize it. I'll update the Features Explain Google Doc with it soon.

[2] I added some more information how to buy a key because people don't know how.

[3] I added a Frequently Asked Question section and move stuff down there. I'll add more questions and answers later.

[4] PGSharp Discord Invite: https://www.pgsharp.com/discord

[5] PGSharp's customer service link: https://www.pgsharp.com/feedback/

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There is no such thing as "safe and ban proof" when Niantic says spoofing is against their Terms of Service. Spoofing is cheating. This means cheaters can get punished under their Three Strikes system. You can read more about it in https://www.reddit.com/r/PoGoAndroidSpoofing/comments/kqmnve/new_spoofers_all_about_threestrike_system_red/ This covers about their ban system.

If you don't want to read it, using your main account with Pgsharp carries risk. If you're a crybaby, do not use your main account. You never know when Niantic will detect PGsharp. If you're gambler and enjoy risk taking, you can use your main account.

How can I make PGSharp safe and ban proof?

By not using your main account.

How do you get a Red Warning/Strike when you use PGSharp?

When Niantic detects PGSharp, anyone who logs into their account in PGSharp will get a Red Warning/Strike. Niantic has a strike system: 1st Red Warning (7-day soft ban), 2nd Red Warning (30-day temporary ban), and 3rd Red Warning (PERMANENT ACCOUNT BAN). If you get the 1st Red Warning, it means you need to quit cheating/spoofing on the account forever.

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All emulators are detectable and have been through multiple ban waves in the past. If you ask for help with an emulator, I will remove your post. This is also not allowed here and is against Rule #5. If you repeatedly ask about an emulator, you can expect a temporary ban from my subreddit.

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You may need to install "Google Docs" from the Google Play Store to read this document that covers this topic. It is best to use landscape mode when reading it: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E7aqDyMW2n_Cnba9B6s5YbcxPsv4i10vAybEED3LnmU/edit?usp=sharing

• If you want easy to setup, use PGSharp.
• If you want a reliable spoofing that is rarely down, use Smali Patcher with Pokemod. You can find these methods inside the Mega Post link.

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How do I buy a Standard / Paid Key?

Option #1 with their Patreon link: https://www.patreon.com/pgsofficial. This is a $5 per month subscription service. If you buy at day 15th, Patreon will start charging on the 1st of every month. If you want to use PayPal, you must use this link to do it. PayPal is a payment service where you can add your bank account, debit card, credit card, and/or PayPal labeled gift card. This is to help you pay for things securely. PayPal is optional.

1. Create a Patreon account and do the email confirmation.
2. Sign up for the $5 per month subscription and pay with PayPal or with credit/debit card.
3. You will get an email titled "Your PGSharp Standard Patron is activated!" with your key right after you pay with a PayPal confirmed/verified account. If you used a debit/credit card, it may take a few days to process.
4. If you do not see email with your key, you must use their Feedback Message system https://www.pgsharp.com/feedback/. This is the safest way to contact PGSharp.

Option #2 with their main website link: www.pgsharp.com. This is a non-recurring payment system. If you buy on the 15th, you must renew it on the 15th again. You can do it every month for $5 or three months at a time for $15. This is for people who do not use PayPal or have this available in their country. You can also use other forms of payment through their website.

1. Go to the website and press buy now under Standard Edition.
2. Choose between $5 monthly or $15 quarterly
3. Press continue then checkout.
4. Create an account or log into your existing account then fill out your name and address.
5. If you pay with credit/debit card, the information must match what you have on record for the card. The bank or card company can put a hold on the transaction then you must call them to allow the authorize the transaction or do it by email.
6. If you pay with something else and have problems, you must use their Feedback Message system https://www.pgsharp.com/feedback/. This is the safest way to contact PGSharp.
7. They will either email you your key or you get it from logging into your account through www.pgsharp.com.

Option #3 with Bitcoin. You can get their address by going into the #FAQ channel in their Discord group https://www.pgsharp.com/discord. I will not help you buy bitcoin to buy Pgsharp because it is hard to use.

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1. Google account login is not supported because PGSharp is not on the Google Play Store.
2. Adventure Sync does not work and cannot be turned on because it does not support Google account login and Google Fit data app.
3. You cannot buy Poke Coins in PGSharp because it is not connected to Google Pay services. You must buy the coins in Pokemon Go downloaded from the Google Play Store or Galaxy Store with a Samsung device. It is strongly recommended you spend your coins in the official app because sometimes PGSharp's servers have a problem that can cause you to lose your Poke coins. I know some people who bought something and never received it. They went to contact Niantic Customer service and got their account permanently banned because they know these people used a modified app, since Niantic found out there was nothing wrong with their servers. *If you attempt to buy through PGSharp, it's up to you to decide if you want to cancel your debit/credit card.

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You can only use Facebook or PTC to login.

• In order to use a Facebook login, you must pair a Google account to a Facebook account by reading https://niantic.helpshift.com/a/pokemon-go/?s=account-and-sign-in&f=linking-facebook-and-google-login-to-your-account&p=web. You must do it in the official Pokemon Go app. DO NOT create a FAKE Facebook account because Facebook can lock your account for using a fake identity. It is impossible to recover the account because you must provide Facebook with a real ID card with the fake identity as proof of ownership of the account.
• For PTC login, you can go here to create a PTC account https://www.pokemon.com. They do not accept throwaway email addresses anymore. Make sure you do the email confirmation.
• This works on:
• Android OS: 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 or 11 ; all must have Google Play Store support.
• RAM: 4 GB or more is recommended.
• This is a No Root method that does not require rooting.

Now for the instructions...

Step 1: Uninstall the official Pokemon Go app (Google Play Store version).

Step 2: Go to www.PGSHARP.com and press/click the Download blue button.

Step 3: Go to your download folder to install pgsX.XX.X.apk file and allow unknown apps to install.

• May need to disable Google Play Protect or have it ignore this app.

Step 4: Open Pokemon Go (same name and icon as the original app)

Step 5: Enter a birthday that proves you are 18 years old or older.

• Example: Janurary 1, 1980

Step 6: Select Returning Player or New Player.

• Press Facebook or Pokemon Trainer Club to login.

Step 7: Type in your Account Information and sign in.

Step 8: Allow access to your GPS/Location.

Step 9: Allow access for Pokemon Go to take pictures and record video, and device location

Step 9: Play the game!

Step 10: To update PGSharp, you go to www.PGSHARP.com, download the new APK, and then install it.

• You do not need to uninstall PGSharp before you install the new version.
• If you are a paid key user, you should export your profile as a backup before updating to the new version. This backup file contains your key and saved settings, favorites, and custom feeds.

Optional and not required, install Pokemon Go app (Samsung version):

Step 11: Download Pokemon Go (Samsung Galaxy App Version) from this link https://www.apkmirror.com/?post_type=app_release&searchtype=apk&s=pokemon+go.

• You can also download the plain one, which is the Google Play Store version to save data if you buy Poke Coins often.
• You can use the Samsung version to buy Poke Coins (Samsung devices only), play legit (any device), use adventure sync with DeFit or Pokewalk, or trade with yourself (must spoof to your real location).

Step 12: Go to your download folder to install long file name.apk.

Step 13: Go through the usual setup, and you can use Google, Facebook, or PTC account.

Step 14: To update the Samsung Galaxy App version, go to the link in step 11 then download and install it over the old Pokemon Go app.

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How can I install Pokemon Go (Google Play Store) and have PGSharp on my device at the same?

You can go to this post to learn how to do it: https://www.reddit.com/r/PoGoAndroidSpoofing/comments/opt2n5/how_to_clone_pgsharp_to_have_pokemon_go_google/ Virtual Go Plus does not work in a cloned PGSharp because it has no bluetooth support. This may also not work from time to time because I think PGSharp app developer does not want you to clone their app.

What does a feature do and how do I use it?

I created this Google Doc link to help you with this question. You may need to install "Google Docs" from the Google Play Store to open this document. It's also best to read in landscape mode. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Pqmgai_jPedYyHpOtot_BbChVnFcex03kZZlUfMUzIA/edit?usp=sharing. You can also go on YouTube and watch other people's videos on how to use a certain feature too.

Can I play on a tablet?

Yes.

Can I play on an Amazon Fire or Fire HD tablet?

My guess is maybe if you already have one. The problem with these devices is it does not have a GPS chip. You will get a GPS/Location error because you cannot play with out access to GPS.

Can I use another device to buy Poke Coins using the official Pokemon Go app?

Yes.

I am unable to login with my Facebook account.

Please try to login the original Pokemon Go. If you login successfully, unlink and relink your Facebook, or link to another Facebook.

Why do pokemon fee? Why I can't spin Pokestops?

This is related to the cooldown rule. You can read about it in my https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Pqmgai_jPedYyHpOtot_BbChVnFcex03kZZlUfMUzIA/edit?usp=sharing and learn how to use the Cooldown Timer feature that is available to both free and standard (paid key) users.

Can Virtual Go Plus use Great and Ultra balls?

No, it uses Red Pokeballs only. Enhanced Throw does not work with this too.

Can I connect my own Go Plus, Pokeball Plus, or Gotcha device?

No because they want you to use their Virtual Go Plus that costs money.

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Useful stuff as always:

These are links you can click with your mouse or press with your finger to open.

If you need anything else, be sure to check out: [Click/Press Here] MEGA POST #3: Everything You Need for Android Spoofing 2021 - Guides for No Root, Rooted, and Bots - GPX Routes, Poke Maps, Nests, Discord Groups, and Frequently Asked Questions

Mark Spitznagel Book Summary. The Dao of Capital and Safe Haven

Mark Spitznagel/Nassim Taleb

The Dao of Capital

• "The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy." Hazlet
• "You have to love to lose money and hate to make money to be successful" Klopp
• Far better to avoid direct, head-on competition and instead, pursue the roundabout path toward an intermediate step that leads to an eventual position of advantage
• Natural systems – from forests to markets – continuously seek balance.
• Austrian investing takes a roundabout path to market success by pursuing immediate loss during the investment process so you can gain more advantageously in the future.
• If investors could use history to predict market movements, they'd never be surprised by them or lose huge amounts of money.
• The market cannot be understood as predictable and law-abiding since it's unpredictable and chaotic at its core.
• The roundabout – the pain of positioning and paying now for the advantage and payoff later – only works when we remove our temporal blinders that keep us hyper focused in the moment. Then, and only then, can we pursue those proximal aims intended to give us an intermediate advantage from which the distal ends are more easily and effectively achieved. To say this is extremely challenging is an understatement.
• To succeed with the strategy of Austrian Investing, you must be able to tolerate initial setbacks.
• A system should naturally achieve balance through internal guidance. Attempts to intervene in the system will usually cause more problems than they solve. The Austrian School of Economics believes this about markets: government intervention doesn't help balance markets, it distorts them.
• We can only succeed with Austrian investing if we can stop focusing on the short term. This is extremely difficult, but it's also critical to our success in the long run. It's hard because humans are designed to prefer things that benefit them now rather than later.
  • This is part of our evolution as humans; we had to focus on immediate threats in order to survive and thrive as a species. Our culture also teaches us that the moment is all that matters—we live in an instant gratification society where people want everything right now without having to work hard for it or wait long periods of time (such as saving money).
• Patience is the most precious treasure
  • Most people are unable to take the roundabout route because our evolution and desire for the here and now (Like the children in the marshmallow study, 1 now or 2 later). Therein lies an edge to the Austrian investor who can take the roundabout approach
  • The reason for this difficulty can be found in our wiring, those genetic tracings of our evolutionary journey rooted in survival, when overlooking immediate needs was reckless and life-threatening.
• Without a functioning feedback loop, the system goes haywire like a faulty thermostat
• The Federal Reserves attempts at "Fire Suppression" leads inevitably to bigger and more deadly "Forest Fires"
• Austrians believe in the "boom and bust cycle" where artificially low interest rates foster an unsustainable boom (characterized by overleveraged borrowers investing in operating capital that will be unproductive at natural interest rates) and the inevitable bust.
• Markets tend to experience infrequent, large moves or "fat tails"

• Wall Street's problem is one of lost opportunity; you MUST go for it now or you won't have a chance tomorrow. This causes Wall Street traders to focus on the now

• You can't time the market. IE – Pick tops and bottoms.

• Short term doesn't matter

• When interest rates are low, bonds are not as negative correlated as you would like with equities and not as much of a safe haven. Do not chase yields

• The federal reserve will have difficulty "normalizing rates"

• Alpha (inefficiencies) is difficult to capture for investors

  • The question you have to ask yourself is "Can you be more efficient than the market?" NO

• We don't know how the next recession will play out ahead of time. Cover your contingencies. Don't just plan for one.

• Don't fight the fed. IE – Shorting risk assets

• In a crash, almost all asset correlation goes to 1

  • Diversification in that scenario won't protect your portfolio

• If you are in the derivatives market (IE – ETNs), you are taking credit risk from the issuer

• 2 types of safe havens. Nothing else is a safe haven.

  • Insurance (Left tail way OTM 30% puts)
  • Does very well in a crash
  • small loss during up market
  • has a high degree of confidence (not a lot of "noise")
  • Store of Value (Gold)
  • does ok in a crash
  • up/down during an up market
  • has a high degree of confidence
  • No counter party risk

• Safe Haven imposters - vulnerable in a crash, needs a lot of luck for that safe haven to pay off in a crash. Have a low degree of confidence it will pay off during a crash

  • Unsafe Haven
  • Hedge funds
  • long/short equity fund (can't time correctly)
  • High dividend stocks
  • REITs
  • Commodity index
  • Hopeful Haven
  • Value stocks
  • 10 - year bonds
  • VIX (difficult to time and it will punish you severely during a up market)
  • Silver

• The federal reserve low interest rates are causing investors to chase yield and creating distortions in the market

• You want to have money for when the liquidation of this malinvestment occurs so you can buy cheap equities

• Precious Metals/Gold are a great store of value

• Focus on your "dry powder"

• Investing in the stock market is a good idea, but you have to be careful. When interest rates are too low and there's too much money being printed by central banks, it can lead to malinvestment. Malinvestment is when people invest in things that aren't useful or valuable for society. That leads to crashes in the market.

  • Distorted markets are prone to crashes
  • So, stay out of them and wait for the distortions to pass before investing again.

• Tobin's Q (Misesian Stationary index) is a good measure of stock valuations. Market is fair valued at 1

  • It is the ratio of the market value of the companies/replacement cost of those business or total US corporate equity/total US corporate net worth. Lower number is better. High was 2.15 in 2000. 2021 is 2.75

• Tobin's Q has a direct inverse correlation with future stock returns. Higher number = lower returns. When financial markets are distorted, they carry the seeds of their own destruction. The inevitable bust that follows the boom is not an unexpected event.

• Basic premise is to stay out of the market for long periods of time when distortions are running high and wait for the inevitable collapse to purchase cheap equities. The objective of roundabout investing is not to make money now, but to position ourselves for better investment opportunities later

• The challenge to the Misesian strategy is that it requires contrarian thinking, to "zig" when the rest of the world is "zagging". You have to step back when the MS Index is high so you can act like a corporate raider when it is low

• Explosive Left Tail risk hedging (what Mark does) is very difficult for the average investor or even professional. Don't try it

• For the average retail investor, Cash is good when Tobins Q is high so you have "dry powder" for the inevitable collapse. You don't want to be shorting the market or in risk assets. This is difficult because you will watch the market go up while you are setting on the sidelines

• Benjamin Graham – "Many shall be restored that now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor."

Safe Havens

• Safe Haven – An asset that provides safety from risk
  • Risk is exposure to bad contingencies. Most of these will never happen, but they can and they can appear in any number of forms
  • Investment risk is the potential for loss, and the scope of that loss
    • A Safe haven asset is an investment that mitigates that risk to preserve and protect your capital. They are shelters from financial storms
• Safe haven investing is both a defensive measure to avert future loss and an offensive one to exploit future opportunities with "dry powder".
• A risk mitigation strategy must be cost effective. Anyone can develop a strategy that does well in a down market, but we must not have a cure that is worse than the disease
• Benjamin Graham – "The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns."
• Do not attempt what Spitznagel does as a retail investor or even professional.
• Everett Klipp - "A small loss is a good loss." Risk mitigation and survival are everything in investing. Don't try to predict
• Investing needn't be about making grandiose forecasts. No one has a crystal ball
• A cost-effective safe haven doesn't just slash risk, it actually lets you take more risk in other parts of the portfolio
• Aristotle pointed out that, while it is easy to make a couple lucky rolls of a die, with 10,000 repeated rolls, the "luck" of the die evens out
• When your sample size is small, and even worse, unique and unrepeatable, no matter your subjective probabilities, there is so much noise in sample you can hardly know anything. You are hoping for good luck. Your Number (N) is 1
• But if your success or failure relying on many outcomes, over many rolls of the dice. Your Number (N) is large. You are acting as the "House" exploiting the house edge through repetition to quash randomness. The house doesn't gamble. We are as Poker theorist David Sklansky said, "at war with luck."
• Cost-effective risk mitigation or raising our compound growth rates (CAGR) and thus wealth through lower risk is really our comprehensive goal as investors.
• Golden Theorem – As you accumulate more and more data in a random sample, you should expect the sample's average to converge to the true average.
  • The more you roll a fair 6-sided die, the more the percentage of all those rolls in which you see any particular number will converge toward 1/6 or 16.66%
• It isn't just the single wager that matters, it is the iterative, multiplicative impact of that result on the next wager, and on the next! A large loss disproportionately lowers our geometric average return, because it leaves us with a much lower stake, or capital base to reinvest and compound on the next wager.
• We cannot only judge our decisions by their outcomes. As good decisions can have bad outcomes. But we only get 1 outcome.
• We have just one life (N=1), but our fate is a range of outcomes.
• The most intuitive way for us to think about the meaning of the expected geometric average return and, equivalently, the geometric average ending wealth outcome under multiplicative growth is simply as the expected median ending wealth outcome
• The geometric average return, rather than the arithmetic average return is close to what you should expect from random samples from all possible ending outcomes
• By giving all the weight to this path(N=1), we essentially need to have gotten pretty much every possible path right. We must be robust to the realized path or "covered all the bases." We don't know what "path" we are going to get
• Not all losses and not all risks are created equal, so not all risk mitigation is created equal
• We need a risk-mitigation strategy that makes our returns both more accurate and more precise to win the bloody "war with luck." We want a tighter grouping of our expected return or a reduced variance.
• You have 2 options for achieving this. The store of value method or the insurance method. These 2 strategies can be very different in their cost-effectiveness
• What makes something a safe haven vs a non-safe haven?
  • How does it do during a Crash? +/-
  • How does it do during normal times? +/-
  • What is the expected payoff during a crash and how does it achieve it?
• You have 3 different types of safe havens.
  • Store of Value – Fixed in time and space. Key is low to no correlation. It provides both a cushion and "dry powder" should a crash take place. It is basically a matter of diluting risk. Crash return is +/0, Non-Crash Return is +/-, and Payoff type is low correlation
  • Alpha – Is like store of value, but its correlation is now expected to be negative. That means during a crash, it is expected to generate a positive return. Think of the flight to quality we see during a crash. Crash return is +, non-Crash return is +/-, Payoff type is negative correlation
  • Insurance – What Mark Spitznagel does, don't try. Extreme version of the Alpha payoff. Needs to make a very large profit during a crash, relative to its expected losses the rest of the time. Needs to be highly convex to crashes or have an explosive payoff to justify its costs. Crash return is ++++, non-Crash return is -, Payoff type is "Convexity"
• Safe Havens can be exceedingly costly, so much so that, as a cure, they can be worse than the disease.
• Some safe havens require a very large asset allocation within the portfolio. The problem is large AA comes at a very large cost (drag) when times are good (which is most of the time). Gold has this problem.
• Strategic vs Tactical Safe Haven
  • Strategic – Mitigates systemic risks in a more fixed way and letting it play out
  • Tactical – Requires moving into and out of safe havens. This requires timing and short-term forecasting skill (which people don't have)
• The problem is no one possess a "crystal ball" to know when to do this.
  • If you risk-mitigation strategy requires a crystal ball to work, then you are doing it all wrong. Don't try to predict the market. Cost effective safe haven investing needs to be agnostic investing
• Cassandras typically and ironically lose more in their safety from looming crashes than those crashes would have even harmed them.
• Markets scare us more than they harm us
• Markets are very, very good at making us feel safe when we shouldn't and scared when we needn't
• Risk mitigation therefore needs to be a sustained way of life or habit, not a transient one
• Imposter Safe Havens
  • Hopeful
  • Unsafe
  • Diworsification (Diversification)
• Hopeful – Payoff is very unreliable. Requires a lot of luck to pay off in a crash. Sometimes requires good timing. It is like jumping out of an airplane with a parachute that only sometimes deploys, you are better off not wearing one in the first place and making a more informed decision. Crash return is (don't know??), non-Crash return is +/- and the Payoff type is "Fingers Crossed"
• Unsafe – This asset or strategy has so far always gone up, so it likely has a good story for why that should always be the case. This logic is then extended to their performance in a crash. They are often vulnerable in a crash, perhaps they have even shown some evidence of that vulnerability, but this doesn't change the optimism around their safe haven status. It is like jumping out of an airplane and thinking you can fly. Crash return is -, non-Crash return is +, and payoff type is "Always goes up so it must be safe"
• Diworsifier – Most common form you see in modern finance. It is pervasive throughout almost all investment portfolios. Diversification is fundamentally a dilution of risk, not a solution to risk. It is about evading risk. Diversification never tends to be as great (lower correlations) as it appears. When the investing herd heads for the exits in a crisis, most strategies and assets tend to get swept away. Strategies that were once uncorrelated, stable and liquid become the opposite of all those things as investors are forced to sell what they are able to, all at the same time. Diversification is "NOT A FREE LUNCH" as mentioned in modern finance theory. Crash return is -, non-Crash return is +, Payoff type is "Loses less, so it is worth it"
• Diversification lowers returns in the name of higher Sharpe ratios, some investors who use this strategy but aren't content with the lower returns are then forced to apply leverage in hopes of raising them back up. True risk mitigation should not require financial engineering and leverage in order to both lower risk and raise CAGR. Doing so adds a different kind of risk by magnifying the portfolio's sensitivity to errors in those correlation estimates.
• Aristotle – "The whole is not the same as the sum of its parts."
  • This is true in finance. You can move a portion of your portfolio to an asset with zero expected return and away from an asset with a high expected return and raise the whole of your wealth, even though it lowered your average. All of this is due to compounding. Key Point of Book!!!
• The properties emerge from the interactions of those component assets as they are rebalanced and compounded. Safe Havens adding so much ending wealth to the portfolio (geometric return) is due to the iterative nature of the game. They provide capital for the next "dice roll" by resetting or rebalancing the size of the wager at the end of each "dice roll". Safe havens can thus top up or feed the wagers in the main game (large part of portfolio), particularly if the previous roll resulted in a big loss, without costing the frequent positive wagers enough to matter. The assets now interact, rather than act independently. Thus, an entirely new whole is formed, one that is very different from the sum of its parts.
• If we only look at the way that things happened and obsess over it as the only likely outcome, then we are engaged in naïve empiricism. IE - we over-extrapolate the past
• To avoid that we need to look at the past in the context of the many other paths that COULD HAVE happened, but never did, as well as our sensitivities to those outcomes
• Most investors add a risk-mitigation strategy for its effect, but don't properly account for the cost paid to gain that effect and thus don't account for the net portfolio effect
• There is always this risk-mitigation tension or tradeoff between the two contrary forces of cost and effectiveness (IE – arithmetic costs and geometric return). That tradeoff is between lower arithmetic returns (costs) as payment for the geometric pickup (effect). There is NO FREE LUNCH!!! But if can tilt that tradeoff in your favor, with an effect that outpaces the costs resulting in a positive net portfolio effect, then risk mitigation on net raises compounding and consequently, wealth. This is cost effective risk mitigation.
• Remember, anyone can develop an asset or strategy that does well in a crash, the trick though is to do it while also raising the median return. Most risk mitigation strategies fail this portion
• We cannot judge the cost effectiveness of a given risk mitigation strategy on its own, in a vacuum, based solely on its attributes.
• The bigger the crash bang for the buck, the less that is needed and the less its potential drag or cost when it isn't needed.
• Mechanical vs Statistical payoff
  • Mechanical – is one that happens as a direct, intrinsic consequence. IE – an option going into the money from out of the money. It must go up in value.
  • Statistical – is one that only tends to be so, based on observed history, but it needn't be so. It is more extrinsic and thus noisier. This would be like a flight to quality or safety that we see during a crash
• You also have other possibilities for payoff warping, like counterparty risk (or the risk of not getting paid). Gold bullion has no counter park risk.
• The question to ask yourself is do you need a lot of things to go right for a safe-haven to be effective? Is their history a good guide to their future, or is everything always different?
• An ideal safe-haven is more mechanical but real-world payoffs tend to be much less so. They tend to fall somewhere on a spectrum between mechanical and statical.
• Not Safe Havens
  • VIX futures – Volatility index but they are always in contango which causes them to have a very steep "roll" making them a really bad trade
  • High-Dividend Stocks
  • Hedge Funds
  • Fine Art
  • US Farmland
• Only 2 safe havens are worthy of that name – Gold and Equity Tail Hedge
• Store of Value
  • Cash (3-Month Treasury Bill) – Less interest rate risks than longer dated maturities. Not a safe haven
  • 10-20 Year Bonds (Typical of "Balanced" portfolio) – More interest rate risks vs shorter maturities (as of 2021 those rates are extremely low which hurts their current safe haven status), classic flight to safety asset when things turn bad for the stock market and the economy. They are a hopeful haven or a Diworsification
• Alpha
  • CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) – Active managed strategies (usually hedge funds) and trend following strategies. Attempt to capture Alpha by using momentum. Other derivatives-based strategies use similar strategies like long volatility and generic tail hedging. Not a safe haven
• Insurance
  • Gold – Hedge against the banking system. No counter party risk. Historically thought of as a hedge against inflation. But, is a very noisy hedge against inflation. It is mostly tied to movements in real interest rates (When inflation goes up faster than nominal interest rates, real rates go down, pushing up gold prices). Mildly explosive crash (market down 15%) payoff on average (30% in the 1970's and 7% since) but, it has had a very wide range of returns since the 1970's. Gold is all about investors' expectations of value, it has no yield and has no intrinsic value. It is for that reason impossible to fundamentally value. Its payoff profile is largely statistical as expected. During the 1970's, golds payoff profile made it very cost effective as a safe haven, outside of that, gold has been much less cost effective. Gold has required a tactical call regarding inflation or real interest rates in order to be a cost-effective safe haven. This means we need certain things to go right for gold to be an effective safe haven in mitigating systemic risk (of a crash), much less cost-effective. The amount of gold needed to fully hedge our portfolio is very high adding to its carry costs.
  • Generic Tail Risk Hedge Strategy – A Barrons Article Mark wrote describes an extremely simplified version of his strategy. He does not describe his strategy is this book in any way. He says the academics are right when they say generic tail risk hedging fails to increase portfolio returns. He does not recommend using this strategy. Each month spend a fixed amount of capital on way OTM four month puts on S+P 500 futures (with a straightforward constraint to avoid the priciest options) and mechanically delta hedge those; the puts are kept until expiration or sold if the explode to a high level.
• Cryptocurrencies – Some people are saying that Cryptocurrencies are "Digital Gold" and destined to take golds role, but their payoff profiles are currently too sparse and too noisy evaluate intelligently (though the early indication is that they look more like unsafe havens or a hopeful haven at best.) Cryptocurrencies are thought of as insurance policies against the failure of central bankers. This, by extension, has also given them the presumed role of being an insurance policy against economic crises. Cryptos are a significant technology platform (the blockchain). They are like secure, virtual safety deposit boxes that only you can access. It will change the world. But the stuff inside those boxes, just by virtue of the secure, convenient, cool boxes, is now presumed to have value – by decree or fiat (The Austrian economist Robert Murphy argues that in Mises framework, we have no choice but to call all crypto fiat currencies.) Worst of all, as a highly speculative vehicle, it is symptom of the liquidity-fueled environment that crated it.
• Article from Mark Spitznagel from Mises Institute titled Why Cryptocurrencies Will Never Be Safe Havens - Every further new high in the price of Bitcoin brings ever more claims that it is destined to become the preeminent safe haven investment of the modern age — the new gold. But there's no getting around the fact that Bitcoin is essentially a speculative investment in a new technology, specifically the blockchain. Think of the blockchain, very basically, as layers of independent electronic security that encapsulate a cryptocurrency and keep it frozen in time and space — like layers of amber around a fly. This is what makes a cryptocurrency "crypto." That's not to say that the price of Bitcoin cannot make further (and further…) new highs. After all, that is what speculative bubbles do (until they don't). Bitcoin and each new initial coin offering (ICO) should be thought of as software infrastructure innovation tools, not competing currencies. It's the amber that determines their value, not the flies. Cryptocurrencies are a very significant value-added technological innovation that calls directly into question the government monopoly over money. This insurrection against government-manipulated fiat money will only grow more pronounced as cryptocurrencies catch on as transactional fiduciary media; at that point, who will need government money? The blockchain, though still in its infancy, is a really big deal. While governments can't control cryptocurrencies directly, why shouldn't we expect cryptocurrencies to face the same fate as what started happening to numbered Swiss bank accounts (whose secrecy remain legally enforced by Swiss law)? All local governments had to do was make it illegal to hide, and thus force law-abiding citizens to become criminals if they fail to disclose such accounts. We should expect similar anti-money laundering hygiene and taxation among the cryptocurrencies. The more electronic security layers inherent in a cryptocurrency's perceived value, the more vulnerable its price is to such an eventual decree. Bitcoins should be regarded as assets, or really equities, not as currencies. They are each little business plans — each perceived to create future value. They are not stores-of-value, but rather volatile expectations on the future success of these business plans. But most ICOs probably don't have viable business plans; they are truly castles in the sky, relying only on momentum effects among the growing herd of crypto-investors. (The Securities and Exchange Commission is correct in looking at them as equities.) Thus, we should expect their current value to be derived by the same razor-thin equity risk premiums and bubbly growth expectations that we see throughout markets today. And we should expect that value to suffer the same fate as occurs at the end of every speculative bubble. If you wanted to create your own private country with your own currency, no matter how safe you were from outside invaders, you'd be wise to start with some pre-existing store-of-value, such as a foreign currency, gold, or land. Otherwise, why would anyone trade for your new currency? Arbitrarily assigning a store-of-value component to a cryptocurrency, no matter how secure it is, is trying to do the same thing (except much easier than starting a new country). And somehow it's been working. Moreover, as competing cryptocurrencies are created, whether for specific applications (such as automating contracts, for instance), these ICOs seem to have the effect of driving up all cryptocurrencies. Clearly, there is the potential for additional cryptocurrencies to bolster the transactional value of each other—perhaps even adding to the fungibility of all cryptocurrencies. But as various cryptocurrencies start competing with each other, they will not be additive in value. The technology, like new innovations, can, in fact, create some value from thin air. But not so any underlying store-of-value component in the cryptocurrencies. As a new cryptocurrency is assigned units of a store-of-value, those units must, by necessity, leave other stores-of-value, whether gold or another cryptocurrency. New depositories of value must siphon off the existing depositories of value. On a global scale, it is very much a zero-sum game. Or, as we might say, we can improve the layers of amber, but we can't create more flies. This competition, both in the technology and the underlying store-of-value, must, by definition, constrain each specific cryptocurrency's price appreciation. Put simply, cryptocurrencies have an enormous scarcity problem. The constraints on any one cryptocurrency's supply are an enormous improvement over the lack of any constraint whatsoever on governments when it comes to printing currencies. However, unlike physical assets such as gold and silver that have unique physical attributes endowing them with monetary importance for millennia, the problem is that there is no barrier to entry for cryptocurrencies; as each new competing cryptocurrency finds success, it dilutes or inflates the universe of the others. The store-of-value component of cryptocurrencies — which is, at a bare-minimum, a fundamental requirement for safe haven status — is a minuscule part of its value and appreciation. After all, stores of value are just that: stable and reliable holding places of value. They do not create new value, but are finite in supply and are merely intended to hold value that has already been created through savings and productive investment. To miss this point is to perpetuate the very same fallacy that global central banks blindly follow today. You simply cannot create money, or capital, from thin air (whether it be credit or a new cool cryptocurrency). Rather, it represents resources that have been created and saved for future consumption. There is simply no way around this fundamental truth. Viewing cryptocurrencies as having safe haven status opens investors to layering more risk on their portfolios. Holding Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies likely constitutes a bigger bet on the same central bank-driven bubble that some hope to protect themselves against. The great irony is that both the libertarian supporters of cryptocurrencies and the interventionist supporters of central bank-manipulated fiat money both fall for this very same fallacy. Cryptocurrencies are a very important development, and an enormous step in the direction toward the decentralization of monetary power. This has enormously positive potential, and I am a big cheerleader for their success. But _caveat emptor_—thinking that we are magically creating new stores-of-value and thus a new safe haven is a profound mistake.

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Rising Institutional Adoption, Bullish Momentum Send Bitcoin (BTC) Closer to $50,000 Resistance

Bitcoin continues to surge as the bulls eye $50,000 figure as the next major resistance. 

Bitcoin Close to Smashing Through $50,000

Premier cryptocurrency bitcoin has been on a steady rise for the past few weeks and if the momentum is anything to go by, it won’t be long before the $50k resistance is smashed for good.

The surge in price has also been supported by several bullish technical indicators such as the recent “golden cross” pattern where a short-term moving average goes above the long-term moving average.

In addition to the aforementioned, the orange coin has displayed a strong recovery including its movement past its 200-day moving average earlier this month hinting that the psychological resistance of $50,000 might be in cards for the bulls to conquer soon.

Further, the total market cap of bitcoin has also risen above $900 billion and looks to capture the $1 trillion market cap once again.

Institutional Adoption on the Rise

The rise in bitcoin’s price can be attributed to the rapid pace of institutional adoption of the largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

Of late, a number of institutional investors have been warming up to bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a reliable store of value to tackle any ‘black swan’ events.

A trend started by business intelligence firm MicroStrategy, a greater number of corporations are following suit to add crypto assets to their balance sheet to diversify their asset holdings.

As the close followers of the industry might remember, Elon Musk’s Tesla announced earlier this year that the company had bought BTC worth a whopping $1.5 billion and that the company would also allow customers to pay for Tesla models with bitcoin.

However, soon enough the company discontinued the service citing bitcoin’s energy-intensive mining. Fortunately enough, however, at the recently concluded ‘The B-Word’ conference, Musk said that Tesla would ‘most likely’ resume the bitcoin payments service soon.

Similarly, Wall Street giants have also been vying to add bitcoin to their list of offerings on the back of the rising demand from accredited investors and private clients.

As recently reported by BTCManager, Wells Fargo had filed for a passive bitcoin fund with the U.S. SEC.

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https://btcmanager.com/institutional-bullish-bitcoin-btc-50000-resistance/

At what point in the transaction using SPEDN is the cryptocurrency converted in fiat?

With regards to a taxable event, does the actual conversion of crypto to fiat occur on the side of the consumer, or the merchant?

When I pay with (for example) Bitcoin using SPEDN, there is no indication on the app that I am actually converting the crypto into fiat - from what I can tell, the actual conversion takes place on the side of the merchant accepting the collateralized coins. (They scan the QR code and it takes my Bitcoin from my wallet)

Crypto's greatest threat: The Internet

Today I was wondering, what happens if the internet gets shut down?

You wouldn't be able to buy your bread with a non-active Coinbase card or cold-wallet sitting under your mattress..

​

• Now we must ask ourselves: how would the internet get shut down?

There actually several (unlikely) possibilities that could result in this tragic event:

1. The nation's power grid gets successfully attacked. It's pretty self-evident that no electricity means no internet. This would also mean no traffic control, lights, electric heating, etc. so there might be bigger problems than your bitcoin, but oh well.

2. Infrastructure. The internet also relies on physical infrastructure like subsea-cables, fiber cables, etc. If these were to be cut or damaged by criminals or natural disasters, this could yield major problems.

3. Government decision. Authoritarian governments can for example block all internet access to the citizens to prevent/oppose a revolution. This has happened during the Arab Spring in Egypt as well as in Congo during periods of unrest. It is also widely-known that internet-restriction in countries like China is strong.

4. Hijacking BGP. Border Gate Patrol (BGP) is used to route traffic on the internet. There have already been several attacks on the BGP, for example in 2019 when large amounts of data were rerouted to servers in China. Being able to rerout the internet can thus break the internet.

Although the internet is a very strong and resilient system, it is not invincible and therefore cryptocurrencies are not invincible. Therefore it might be wise to not have 100% of your wealth in crypto.

I would love to hear more ideas of the internet being shut down or possible solutions!

What is Bitcoin? How Does Bitcoin Work? All You Require to Know 2021

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https://preview.redd.it/7q0fyhzbazi71.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30454f9b35fb3cfa2ed60700b5299c8526ec3163

Each nation has its own cash like Pakistan has rupees, Europe has euro, and so forth each sort of 'give-and take' occurs through it. Like everything, we can feel and see this kind of cash through our eyes in our own country. The public authority of each nation or the banks have complete control of their cash. Bitcoin is additionally a cash, however it is a computerized money. It's initially decentralized cryptographic money. It is made by individuals and worked electronically just through PCs, i.e., the web. It relies on an open-source programming by utilizing that it is altogether decentralized. Bitcoin Meaning —

Each sort of 'give-and take' occurs through the cash of that country. The public authority of each nation or the banks have absolute power over it. Yet, have you at any point caught wind of a secret cash which can't be seen however that has turned the most significant nowadays. Indeed, I am discussing BITCOIN. It is a method of computerized cash. It's obviously true's that a large portion of individuals couldn't have heard this, yet the individuals who have caught wind of it, the vast majority of them don't have the foggiest idea what Bitcoin truly is? And how does Bitcoin work? What is bitcoin money exchanging? How they bring in cash bitcoin exchanging? So today I will clarify Bitcoin today here on this page. FYI the avg. worth of 1 Bitcoin these days is around Rs.2,50,000. However, it is something alternate that it is covered up, nobody can consider Bitcoin to be it is a computerized money.

Bitcoin is the primary decentralized digital money, made by individuals and worked electronically just through the PCs, i.e., with the assistance of the web. It relies on open source programming, and it's not printed very much like the rupees and dollars on any sort of material.

The main component of bitcoin is nobody controls it; neither the public authority nor bank. It tends to be utilized anyplace, whenever. Anyone on the planet can move the asset or cash to others through bitcoin without the assistance of any outsider channel. The individuals who need to send cash, they can send it from their Bitcoin wallet to other individual's Bitcoin wallet. There is no any outsider associated with the arrangement - treated as bitcoin money exchanging. It happens between two people through PCs or the web in a PC coding (advanced) language. At the point when an individual exchanges Bitcoin to another, it shows codes. It's completely scrambled. To do these assets move measure, they are charged just 2 pennies, i.e., Rs.1.68 and that is so less. Heaps of individuals are utilizing bitcoin rather than customary cash. We need to utilize banks for our day by day monetary arrangements. Yet, Bitcoin is a sort of monetary help over which there is no control of any administration, bank or organization. The give-and assume takes position straightforwardly between two people and it is completely encoded; so this is a quick and a safe method of financial trade. At the point when an individual exchanges bitcoin to your bitcoin wallet, there will be no notes or any sort of money utilized; it comes as some advanced codes and that codes show the moved sum to your Bitcoin wallet.

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Speedy Bitcoin Wiki

Before 5 years the worth of 1 bitcoin was just Rs.6. and presently it has expanded to Rs.45000. It initially began on 3 January 2009 by a developer known as Satoshi Nakamoto. Yet at the same time, no one has a deep understanding of him. There is no obvious proof about the author. At the point when Satoshi Nakamoto began bitcoin, he had no thought process to change over it into money. He needed to demonstrate that there can be a monetary trade and bitcoin money exchanging with no contribution of any outsider channel like government or bank. He needed to show, it very well may be feasible to trade between two people straightforwardly.

The first occasion when it was endeavored to give 10,000 bitcoins to take care of the bill for pizza on 22 may 2010 which implies it was costing under dime around then and presently it has brought up in several of thousands. More and more individuals are attempting to get it since it came into center; thusly the worth of bitcoin is rising for quite a while.

How does Bitcoin work? How about we clarify it with a basic bitcoin mining model.

Assume individuals are purchasing gold consistently at normal cost on the lookout, yet abruptly the creation of gold from the following month is decreased to half and the no. of purchasers is as yet unchanged. Then, at that point in view of the lack, the worth of gold will increment. Consider in the event that this beginnings happening each month, clearly the gold cost will go a lot higher. Exactly the same thing occurs with bitcoin. Individuals realize that the no. of bitcoin is diminishing; consequently its worth is expanding. The worth of 1 bitcoin in 2015 in India was Rs.14,000, in May 2016 it was Rs.30,000 and as of late it is around Rs.10,45,000. As per this until the year 2021, it will be somewhere near Rs.18,68,000. It resembles mining of gold, and subsequently the name Bitcoin Mining.

The explanation is as that of bunches of enormous organizations have begun to put resources into bitcoin stock exchanging, on the grounds that they guess that bitcoin is a future economy and the worth of the present notes will be diminished. Till today there are around 8 billion cell phones on the planet while the number of inhabitants on the planet is around 7 billion. There are 2 billion individuals who don't have ledgers it implies, that load of clients who have cell phones begin utilizing bitcoins then it will be the greatest financial framework where there will be no course of government or any financial associations.

Bitcoin information mining - How can it function and from where it comes? How they bring in cash bitcoin exchanging?

How a Bitcoin exchange functions - The give-and assume takes position through the shared procedure that implies the money is traded starting with one PC then onto the next. This give-and take is made gotten by a huge number of people groups working through their PC organizations. Also, the individuals who watch out for this new bitcoin trade or say an exchange so that there shouldn't be any abuse and the individuals who do it effectively get some bitcoins as a prize, and this is called as Bitcoin mining. Furthermore, the people groups who work like bank representative to check this give and take occurring through code language are called Bitcoin excavators.

To finish this course of bitcoin cash exchanging, they need to take care of a numerical issue. The digger who settle this issue in less time gets 12 and half bitcoins and thusly, the bitcoins come into the advanced market. The entire cycle is made so that after an expressed timeframe the no. of bitcoins gets decreased to half. At the outset, 50 bitcoins were taken out from one square. After at regular intervals, the no. of bitcoins per block gets decreased to half. Consequently following a long time from now, i.e., till 2140, the making of new bitcoins will be halted. As per the computation, till this time there will be 2,10,00,000 (2crore 10 lakh) bitcoins in the computerized market and it will end in future one day. That is the reason individuals are rushing to purchase this.

Square chain

Everything is distinctive in this world. Various nations, various individuals, societies, food, and so on yet the one thing that holds them all together is MONEY. It is needed for every one of our necessities. Everybody work for cash. However, have you at any point felt that what it truly is? As it is just a piece of paper. It's only a PROMISE that administration has made. In any case, when we store this cash in the bank, it shows cash for us exclusively by digits, yet it doesn't really exist there. The bank courses this cash all over as a piece of an economy. In addition, the truth of the matter is that, if 3% individuals pull out their own cash from the bank simultaneously, then, at that point there will be no cash in the banks since they have turned into a piece of a major economy. The public authority and banks have power over this economy. In the event that there is a major issue with banks/government and it sinks all your cash will sink moreover. Be that as it may, Bitcoin is an endeavor to eliminate this danger of banks and government.

Since the bitcoin money exchanging is advanced, the inquiry is; would it be able to be pilfered like movies? after that

, at that point the suitable response is NO. It is absurd. Also, that is the forte of this computerized money. Bitcoin is sent in block chains partitioned into overall population/individuals. The record of each bitcoin is kept in the square chain. That implies the subtleties of each bitcoin exchange or a new bitcoin trade occurred on the planet, whenever, anyplace, are consistently accessible in the square chain. The clients who watch out for this give and take and secure it are additionally compensated with Bitcoin since each exchange is confirmed. No one knows how much dollars are there on the planet, yet the no. of bitcoins is fixed which are to be created till the following 125 years.

The utilization of bitcoin is expanding in settlements regions. Settlements mean individuals working in another nation sends cash to their local country. For the most part, these assets move occurs through a bank or cash move offices. For doing this, they charge 5% - 30% expenses. It works corresponding to normal money and its utilization is expanding. Numerous conspicuous organizations on the planet are tolerating bitcoin money exchanging for installment. You can utilize it to purchase anything. As of late the public authority of India has halted the old Rs.500 and Rs. 1000 notes and they have mentioned to trade these notes with new ones. Consequently everyone is keeping straight to trade the notes, yet the significant thing to recollect here is, in the event that they might have bitcoin, there was no should be in line. So such a case doesn't exist with Bitcoin as there is nobody who needs to control it.

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Benefits of Paying With Bitcoins

What makes Bitcoins so winning and why an ever increasing number of clients and organizations tolerating this method of the installment framework? The following are the fast advantages of utilizing Bitcoins.

You can purchase things, book rooms in lodging electronically.

It's quick than bank and secure.

At the point when we store cash in the bank, it shows an equilibrium for us, yet it's not really there. Banks utilize it for their monetary arrangements and on the off chance that the bank sinks, all our cash will sink. Be that as it may, it's not the situation with the bitcoin money exchanging.

No charges/commissions offered for move of cash starting with one country then onto the next. It is for the most part utilized in the settlements field where individuals working in another nation send cash to their local country. Regularly the exchange is done through banks or an outsider like cash move offices. They offer expenses from 5% - 30% for cash move.

It keeps record through the web so it can lessen the impact of dark cash and bring more straightforwardness.

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The Minor Disadvantages of Bitcoin

Alongside these benefits, it has disadvantages. The advantages of turning into an individual from the Bitcoin framework are quite helpful. In spite of this, it isn't great and has not many focuses for certain adverse signs that you should be kept in your brain.

There is ups and downs in Bitcoin esteem as there is nobody's command over it.

Many awful people groups are utilizing it for unlawful works and that is risky. Along these lines the public authority or banks of each nation are not in the temperament to allow it.

Crypto's greatest threat: The Internet

Today I was wondering, what happens if the internet gets shut down?

You wouldn't be able to buy your bread with a non-active Coinbase card or cold-wallet sitting under your mattress..

Now we must ask ourselves: how would the internet get shut down?

There actually several (unlikely) possibilities that could result in this tragic event:

The nation's power grid gets successfully attacked. It's pretty self-evident that no electricity means no internet. This would also mean no traffic control, lights, electric heating, etc. so there might be bigger problems than your bitcoin, but oh well.

Infrastructure. The internet also relies on physical infrastructure like subsea-cables, fiber cables, etc. If these were to be cut or damaged by criminals or natural disasters, this could yield major problems.

Government decision. Authoritarian governments can for example block all internet access to the citizens to prevent/oppose a revolution. This has happened during the Arab Spring in Egypt as well as in Congo during periods of unrest. It is also widely-known that internet-restriction in countries like China is strong.

Hijacking BGP. Border Gate Patrol (BGP) is used to route traffic on the internet. There have already been several attacks on the BGP, for example in 2019 when large amounts of data were rerouted to servers in China. Being able to rerout the internet can thus break the internet.

Although the internet is a very strong and resilient system, it is not invincible and therefore cryptocurrencies are not invincible. Therefore it might be wise to not have 100% of your wealth in crypto.

I would love to hear more ideas of the internet being shut down or possible solutions!

Thinking of selling this bull run peak to buy back in the bear market? I made a google sheet to calculate how much you can increase your stack.

Nobody knows how this bull market will play out. Will we repeat the pattern of 2013 and 2017? is this the supercycle to end all cycles? are we in a bear market? Who knows. But Personally I think it is going to play out similar to the past, with a blow-off-top followed by a long bearish period.

I have a plan, and I'm sure I'm not the only one thinking about it:

1. Sell into stablecoins as near the peak as I can.
2. Park those stablecoins and earn interest.
3. Buy back during the bear market.
4. Have more crypto

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I was laying awake at night thinking about it and there are too many variables for my small brain to keep track of. I have one simple question to answer:

How much bitcoin can I buy back if I sell at <peak price> and buy back at <post-peak price>?

Which spurs the next questions:

What if I sell too early? What if I think for example I sell thinking $100k BTC is the top but the market continues to rally above $300k? Will I still be able to buy back more than I've sold? And how much of a drop will we see this time round? 90% again? What if it only drops 60% from it's peak, will I still be able to buy back more than I sold? In my opinion, this bull cycle is a once in a lifetime opportunity to significantly increase my holdings and I do not want to mess it up and end up with less than what I started with.

It was driving me a bit crazy so I made a calculator on google sheets to tell me what might happen given all the different variables. I've found it quite useful and it was fun to build, and I'd like to share it with the community:

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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O9QujvOGiDlxdR55hTVP6U3BMadAKvgf5-Ji6jX3twk/edit?usp=sharing

I haven't made this editable, please make your own copy so you can edit the fields. Let me explain what we're looking at and how you can use it:

The calculator is divided into 4 sections, and you work from left to right. you need only edit the BLUE CELLS and all of the rest is automatic. I've included some instructions in the sheet but here I'll explain in a bit more depth.

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The USER INPUTS section

CHOOSE COIN: There is a drop down menu to choose the coin you're working with. This doesn't change anything other than the dialogues throughout the sheet, so it doesn't really matter what you choose, it will work the same, just gives nice readable outputs. If the coin you're working with isn't listed, you can just type it in. I've just chosen the top 20 coins from coinmarketcap.

WHAT IF I SELL UP TO A PRICE OF: This is basically the price that you think the coin can and will get to. In the image above, I'm planning for BTC to hit $150k at it's peak, and that's where I want to set my highest sell order.

BUT IT ACTUALLY PEAKS AT: Do not be fooled, you do not know, I do not know, and nobody knows what price BTC will actually peak at. This is you first real unknown variable. What if you sell your stack thinking $150k is the top but it just keeps going? $200k... $300k? This figure is what you can tweak to see just how badly you have to get it wrong before you're in danger town and risk buying back less that what you started with.

START SELLING % FROM PEAK: I don't know about you, buy I plan on selling in increments up to my peak sell point, DCA in is important, just as it is to DCA out. this is a filed that'll just make it easy to spread out your sell points based on the maximum speculated peak. For example if your maximum sell ('what if I sell up to a price of') point is $100k for simplicity, selecting 25% here will start sells at $75k, and selecting 50% will start it a $50k. Get it?

DEFI INTEREST APY%: Once you've sold your stack into stablecoins, if you plan on parking them in some platform to earn interest, you can input the APY rate of the platform here, you'll see in the BUYBACK CALCULATOR section, the interest earned over a period of a maximum 2 years is broken down into Quarters. You may want to start buying back after 3 months, you may want to start buying back after 12 months, the calculator will help you see what that will mean, how much approximately in stablecoins that you'll have. I need to emphasise the APPROXIMATELY here. The APY calculations are simple here, I calculate what 10% APY would earn over a year, and then divide that by 12, and them multiply by 3, 6, 9, etc. It will in no way be a true accurate prediction of earnings and you should consider this whole sheet a tool for a ballpark only, to help you sleep at night, and is absolutely not financial advice!

The SELL CALCULATOR section:

If you plan on selling only in one transaction, you can either set the aforementioned field to 0%, or you can leave all these cells as 0 and only enter a value for the top one. Personally I plan on selling in increments and weighting more towards the top end of my speculated peak. This section will show you what the price points would be for sell orders, and how much you'll bag at each price point, depending on how much coin you sell at said point.

The bottom of this section will tell you the total amount of coins sold, what your average sell price is and how much in total you'll have in stablecoins after selling.

The BUYBACK CALCULATOR section:

This is where you get the bulk of your answer, broadly. At the top you'll see how much interest your stablecoins will have earned you each quarter (based on your APY% figure) and it will tell you what the price of the coin will be in the event of a 60, 70, 80, or 90% drop from it's peak. Adjacent to this, you'll see how much coin you could buy back at this pricepoint, based on maximum stablecoin yield or zero stablecoin yield. The cool part about this section is it will go red when you are in danger of making back less coin that you started with, which is the whole point of me making this thing in the first place. Try it out, put in a way higher figure between your two price predictions and see how badly you have to miss the mark before you make a loss.

There is a broad range displayed at the bottom of this section to show on average how much you'll be looking at buying back.

The SUMMARY/FINETUNE section:

This was a later addition, this enables you to narrow down on some parameters to see a bit more accurately (Still very very approximate, this is not financial advice) You can tweak here how long you'll be earning interest at your defined rate, and you can enter a specific price for the coin, totally arbitrarily, and see how much you could buy at that price.

​

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I have tried to make this as understandable and user friendly as possible.

Make your own copy, have a play, this is in no way financial advice, I am not a mathematician and I am not a trader, I know nothing about finance, I just got a bit carried away making this and would like to share my work with the community :)

Goods and Services Exchanged for Bitcoin: Taxable Event in USA?

Does the purchase of goods and services in the United States with Bitcoin constitute a taxable event similar to capital gains tax?

Goods and Services Exchanged for Bitcoin: Taxable Event in USA? (x-post from /r/Bitcoin)

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/p9juau/goods_and_services_exchanged_for_bitcoin_taxable/

This Week's Hot NFTs on Mintable - August 22

NFTs coming your way!

Our team scours through Mintable and highlights the most unique NFTs listed on our marketplace!

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Calling all NFT creators 

Are you looking for an opportunity to meet collectors, buyers, and creators in the Mintable community? Mintable is looking for creators to share their stories on our next Meet & Greet event on Twitter Spaces.

Submit your applications NOW!

Submit Interest

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If you take a peek inside of artperfectshape's profile, you will be greeted with a kaleidoscope of fun, kinetic moving patterns complemented with bold, bright colors. According to the artist, their works consist of recreating situations to thoughts, or ideas and concerns that human beings have – such as life, religion, and our own existence.

Featured artwork: "Motion"

View profile

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webjmf

Calling themself a 'digital abstract painter', webjmf's work is a cacophony of jagged brush strokes and striking colors meeting on a digital canvas, coming together in a psychedelic composition. While abstract and two-dimensional, their unique style creates an illusion as if an entity were to emerge from the screen.

Featured artwork: Da Vinci Glitch Cam Video

View profile

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Trending NFTs

The Bitcoin Tortoise

The Bitcoin Tortoise

In Aesop's famous fable of "The Hare and the Tortoise", there is a moral that refers to the perseverance of the tortoise in advancing at a slow but firm pace towards the goal without being distracted or daunted by the mockery or the speed of the Hare. In a way it shows that when the objective is clear and the focus is sufficient, it is not easy to stop those who undertake that path.

Seller: gotoonce

Buy now

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Doge The Moon WatcherDoge The Moon Watcher

Artist johntaylor92 has a unique subject for all his works of art, and it is inspired by the world of crypto. It is none other than the doge from the infamous meme and now famous cryptocurrency dogecoin. His creativity brings doge to life in various different imagined scenarios. In Doge The Moon Watcher, the artist imagines doge watching the moon in a Van Gogh-esque starry night moving image piece.

Seller: johntaylor92

Bid now

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Heaven in hell T1 00001
Heaven in hell

The concept of heaven and hell have been talked about and depicted many times over... but what about heaven IN hell? Artist megocra does the imagining for his audiences, arriving at an image of chaos and warped bodies.

Seller: megocra

Buy now

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HOMER

Homer

Artist cyrptolabbss creates their own interpretation of a character similar to Homer from 'The Simpsons', complete with a flashing graffiti background.

Seller: cyrptolabbss

Buy now

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Daisy was my Sky at Dawn #6

She was my first on everything in my adolescence

This is the artist's depiction of a girl named Daisy who left them 12 years ago.

"Daisy was the school diva that many boys wanted to have, her beauty was beyond any boy's imagination. Though I was an ordinary person in school, fate was on my side. And when I finally managed to make her fall in love, she took my first kiss and took hours of my life almost every night."

Seller: ninja433

Buy now

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대중
crowd

Nothing like a room with a view for settling the mind... As the artist writes in their description "JUST look", what can you find outside the window?

Seller: swt_ton

Buy now

Scav karma is the best feature ever

Scav karma is legit the best feature to be added (exaggerating perhaps) into tarkov. I don't really care how much it changed for scavs, might even have made scav runs too easy to make money off. Though I assume it lets new players settle in better with a bit of a stronger economy which is nice. And if VOIP gets added to scavs then that's more probably gonna be a game in itself. But I digress, it's been so much fun on a PMC running around trying to befriend scavs towards the end of raids while wearing many roubles worth of gear, just to try and use the PMC extract. It's been fun seeing scavs go from completely poor looking to having PMC drip when you throw down another kills gear to try and buy a bit of cooperation. Though guns will never be dropped cause I trust class 5 to stop a ps 5.45 a lot more than a m855a1. I work in a kindergarten and didn't have a lot of time to play during the event and while trying to fill up a bitcoin farm I just couldn't be assed to do the event. But it's a lot of fun doing it the way it was intended. Full on nerves to wether the scav will try and take you out with the occasional sv-98 they have and steal your stuff or if they'll be a good sport and leave with you.

Just wanted to share an experience I've though amazing after playing for a couple years. Might only be this fun because of the novelty factor, but I still find it to make the game that bit better.

Sorry for a tad long post, was tired of people being mad about all this karma and wanted to share the way I've had fun with it.

jax

The biggest mining event of the year couldn’t help but catch the attention of Jax.Network. On July 20–21, 2021, our delegates flew all the way to the Sunshine State to participate in the Mining Disrupt conference.

#mining #cryptomining #blockchain #bitcoin #fintech
#Jax.Network #Blockchain #Stablecoin

After Afghanistan’s Tragedy, a Role for Crypto

Written by Rachel Sun/CoinDesk

When Paul Vigna and I wrote “The Age of Cryptocurrency” seven years ago, its opening lines featured a tale of how the blogging platform The Film Annex had contracted some teenage women attending a digital education school in the Afghan city of Herat and was paying them in bitcoin.

Given the past week’s heart-wrenching images from Afghanistan, the story is a reminder that cryptocurrency, while no guarantee of freedom, can be an aid in the pursuit of freedom. It’s a tool for bypassing oppressive power structures and can play a small but constructive role in helping Afghan women in their religious, cultural and political struggles.

The school was part of a program led by Afghan tech entrepreneur and activist Roya Mahboob, who in 2013 had made Time Magazine’s list of the world’s 100 most influential people – at the age of 25. The Film Annex’s New York-based founder, Francesco Rulli, realized he couldn’t pay Mahboob’s students for their blogs via the legacy international financial system. In Afghanistan’s patriarchal society, a woman’s access to a bank account typically required the intermediation of a man – a father, perhaps, or a brother. So, Rulli set up bitcoin addresses for them and paid them that way. 

We opened the book with that story because it seemed like a good way to highlight Bitcoin’s liberating capacity to disintermediate exchanges of value between people. Banks aren’t the only intermediaries it can disrupt; it goes for anyone who exploits the existing centralized system’s dependence on trusted third parties to place themselves between the payer and the payee. In this case, the power it challenged arose from Afghanistan’s sexist socio-political context. 

 

The Film Annex (later renamed BitLanders) was eventually disbanded, but the women’s empowerment project it helped spur went on to make waves. 

 

Tapping her student body, Mahboob formed a team of teenage Afghan girls to compete in a U.S. robotics competition in July 2017. After they were denied visas, prompting an outcry and a congressional petition that led President Trump to intervene and clear them for the visit, they finally entered the event and won a silver medal as part of a courageous achievement award. Four months later, the same team won first prize in a competition in Estonia for a solar-powered robot that can assist poor farmers in the field. The funding for that effort was in part paid for with a bitcoin award that Mahboob had earned earlier that year at the annual Blockchain Summit on Necker Island, which is in the British Virgin Islands. 

 

Fast forward to August 2021. Amid the Taliban’s rapid takeover of their country, fears quickly grew over the fate of the robotics team. The good news, Mahboob told me, is that after an international scramble to save them, 11 of the team had managed by Thursday to get out safely to Qatar, whose government supplied the plane to evacuate them. 

 

Even so, with college-educated women burning their diplomas out of fear of attack from the Taliban, there are hundreds of thousands in danger. Dozens of Mahboob’s staff and educational mentors have abandoned everything they own, she said, and are trying to get access to limited seats on evacuation planes. Even if their names are added to the approved list, they still need to run the gauntlet of Taliban checkpoints seeking to block people from reaching the U.S.-controlled Kabul airport.

A role for Bitcoin or stablecoins, or both?

 

Bitcoin does not fix this.

 

Still, at this moment, “Bitcoin could play a very important role,” says Mahboob.

 

Why? Because the imminent failure of the legacy money system is about to create a vacuum of necessity. That’s something Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies such as stablecoins are well qualified to fill.

 

Many bank offices have shut down. Those that are open are seeing long lines of people trying to withdraw cash while there are reports that some branches – and their cash holdings – have been seized by Taliban insurgents. There’s also speculation that the new regime will invalidate the ousted government’s bank notes and replace the money with their own, destroying people’s wealth in the process. 

 

People need money to carry on with their lives or to fund their escape. Foreign donors are eager to get to them, but can’t do so via the banking system. In this context, transferring funds directly to a person’s bitcoin wallet seems like a no-brainer.

 

If Afghans must embark on an arduous and dangerous escape, at least with cryptocurrency they would have a better way to transfer whatever wealth they have across borders. In decades past, refugees from war-torn areas would deal with this problem by sewing pieces of gold into the hems of their clothes, running the risk of having them stolen by common thieves or corrupt officials. Now, they can simply load up a bitcoin address that’s personally accessible anywhere in the world.

 

That these options are now even possible in Afghanistan is due in no small part to the phenomenal work of Mahboob, who dedicated a decade to building digital literacy and computer education among women, laying a knowledge foundation upon which bitcoin can now be deployed to bypass the failing legacy system.

 

“This is why we’ve been working in high schools all these years,” she told me Thursday night. “If young people can learn about computers, they can learn about bitcoin. And now everybody wants to learn how to access bitcoin. They need to.”

 Edit ; The way some people think it's inappropriate and insensitive post to the Afghan Situation and it's about promoting crypto.Well,no it's not about that.Its just someone influential from the Afghanistan said how Crypto would have helped people in this difficult time ? I didn't wrote the article,I found the article and gave credit on the top and posted it.I see it as if the same thing happens in some other country in future then people have something available to use in situations like this comes.This was the whole point in sharing this post. If some people didn't liked it,I am apologizing for it, didn't mean to hurt anyone's sentiments.