damn i didnt realize that buting monero with bitcoin is a taxable event in the eyes of the IRS since the IRS sees that as the same thing as if i exchanged my bitcoin to fiat and then took the fiat and bought monero. it seems buying monero with fiat comes along with serious fees. what gives?!
So you want to sell at the peak? You want your 1 million dollars per tendie but you're not sure if you'll get too greedy and end up being a bagholder? Fear not, let's walk through the mechanics of a short squeeze together. Feel free to pull up this attached excel 10 minute excel chart of the Volkswagen squeeze and follow along!
Disclaimer: this is not financial advice. Blah blah blah. This is the ramblings of a crayon eating ape who really enjoys GME tendies.
"In history, a great volume is unrolled for our instruction, drawing the materials of future wisdom from the past errors and infirmities of mankind."
-Edmund Burk
It's really hard to predict the future, but one can obtain some foresight with hindsight. I will examine the Volkswagen short squeeze and attempt to draw conclusions that can be applied to GME.
When people think of the Volkswagen chart, they common think of this picture:
This chart is a daily chart. The scale of the X-axis is 1 day, where each candlestick represents 1 day. As a day trader, this data is pretty useless to me because the fidelity of the data is really low. It's like watching an IMAX movie at 720p.
So I did some digging looking for some more accurate data on VW. Thanks to u/myhomeswarty on this post, I was able to obtain some 10 minute data in excel. The scale of the X-axis is 10 minutes per candlestick; thus this this data is about 14x the fidelity of a daily chart. I formatted the data and generated a candlestick chart for some deep dive analysis. Again here is the excel chart. Before I compare GME to VW, I'd like to address this question:
Why am I comparing VW to GME when these are two different stocks trading under very different market conditions?
Because there are useful similarities that persist across all trades and across all stocks. Prices can vary, but fundamental market dynamics remain the same.
You'll commonly see on Reddit a picture of the VW chart with the "you are here" label.
In my opinion, one should not make these kind of time comparisons. It really makes no sense, especially in hindsight when weeks have passed and GME is still in the same spot on that chart.
Honestly nobody knows where GME is at, but I can guess that the whales who decided to activate the GME rocket boosters with their gamma ramp are currently piloting our little rocket through the sky. We're not in space yet, but we've got the momentum to blast out of the stratosphere and travel our way to the moon. Anyways, back on topic.
What I want to show you all is the comparisons that are actually useful. I believe that between Volkswagen and GameStop, they share traits that are caused by fundamental market dynamics.
Let's start with the 10 minute Volkswagen chart and compare it to the 1 Day Volkswagen chart. The 1D chart I will be using is $VOW traded on the XETR exchange where the squeeze occurred. It can be hard to find the right chart. Here it is.
You'll notice that if you make the time scale smaller than 1D (like 4H), the chart refuses to show data from before 2014 likely because any data smaller than 1 Day from before 2014 is not stored. You can check Yahoo Finance and other sites. There simply is no data.
I would guess that finding 1 minute data would be challenging and likely involve paying a fee to some historical data storing service to access old VW data. Anyways, the 10 minute data should be high fidelity enough to analyze. Thanks u/myhomeswarty for finding this data.
With this higher fidelity 10m chart, what do you notice? Zoom in to the picture to see the dates at the bottom.
10m Volkswagen Chart
Let me put the 1D chart next to the 10m chart to make it more obvious.
10m and 1D charts stacked
As you can see, the pink region (10/27/08 candlesticks) on the 10m chart corresponds to that one bar to the left of the big spike on the 1D chart. The orange region (10/28/08 candlesticks) is all smushed into the center green spike. And the cyan region (10/29/08 candlesticks) corresponds to the tiny green bar to the right of the center spike.
The interesting part is the orange region, because that's the region retailers will trade: the peak of the squeeze. The interesting thing I see is a triangle wedge. We'll dive into that later and discuss why the presence of a wedge is important.
I think what people might find scary about the 1D chart is the huge drop after the squeeze. I see a lot of people thinking that the peak is symmetrical. The peak is not symmetrical; the price will likely not drop down all the way to the base of the spike in one swift motion. In the VW 10m chart, I see that to the right of the peak, there is what appears to be a triangle wedge.
Triangle patterns are aptly named because the upper and lower trendlines ultimately meet at the apex on the right side, forming a corner.
Triangles are similar to wedges and pennants and can be either a continuation pattern, if validated, or a powerful reversal pattern, in the event of failure.
Even if you miss the peak, there's a second chance to sell because the price will bounce back up retracing some percentage of the height of the triangle. In fact it should bounce a couple times within the narrowing channel before ultimately crashing to pre-squeeze levels.
You might think this is some conspiracy theory. Triangles! Loominarti! How can you be certain we'll see a triangle?
Take a look at the DryShips short squeeze.
Dryships 30m, short squeeze 2016
Hah! No triangle! So this is a conspiracy!
Nope. Just zoom in.
Dryships 1m, short squeeze 2016
Triangle wedge detected!
One can detect these wedges on almost every single momentum rally driven to unsustainable price levels.
PLTR 15m, post demo day rally to $45, 1/27/21
BTC 15m, TSLA buys bitcoin leading to a rally, 2/8/21
GME 1m, first gamma squeeze
You'll see that the second triangle in the GME rally formed a lot lower from the peak. This was because Robinhood and several other brokerages stopped users from buying. That is market manipulation and the only reason why the second triangle formed really low. If GME were to squeeze without market manipulation, one should see a healthy triangle wedge form like the triangle on the left during the first spike.
Why do triangle wedges form? Think about it like a pendulum. When a stock climbs, it's momentum eventually tappers off and reverses like a pendulum. It will swing in the opposite direction and eventually run out of downwards momentum. It swings back and forth until it reaches the apex where it now has to breakout.
Just rotate that image 90 degrees and you'll see what looks like a stock chart triangle.
Now that you can expect a triangle to form, you should also understand that there exists a second chance to sell. You won't fall off a cliff and instantly become a bagholder. Instead, imagine there being a floating trampoline that you can jump on a few times before the fabric breaks and sends you falling down.
Selling too early can drastically reduce your gains. If enough people sell early, that can also reduce the price ceiling of the squeeze. The more float that becomes available, the higher the supply and the lower the price. Looking back at Volkswagen, on 10/29/08, Volkswagen released just 5% of the float, but that resulted in about a 33% price drop between closing price on the 28th and opening price on the 29th
On Wednesday 29, Porsche, perhaps realising their actions had caused some damage, generously provided an extra 5 per cent of the shares to the stricken shorts. By Friday, Volkswagen's ordinaries closed at €497, down 50 per cent from the Tuesday highs as the squeeze loosened.
Diamond handing leads to more locked up float which leads to a higher price ceiling for the squeeze. Not only does selling early reduce your potential gains, it also reduces the price ceiling potential. Now the comparison to Volkswagen is just to show the effects of supply and price. Don't take those number literally, GME has much higher short interest than VW and much more institutional and retail ownership. One cannot really can't estimate how much an X% of float released will affect the Y% price drop.
Now let's look at a hypothetical chart of what GME might look like in the future. Given the unique nature of a triangle pattern, there are many places to pick a selling point. I think it will be tricky to spot the true Alpha Triangle. The one triangle at the tippy tippy top.
There may be multiple triangles on the way up. It might even be difficult to tell when the actual shorts start covering as many of the triangles before the peak will occur during gamma squeezes.
After the apex of each triangle is a breakout. Usually a large movement in either direction.
I believe that the differentiator between a period of small gamma squeezes, and the period when shorts actually cover, is a smooth rally breakout. Watch out for this.
This smooth rally breakout should have a vertical height much longer than any previous breakout rallies. People expect this stock to hit into the thousands, so it would be reasonable to assume that there will be a smooth rally breakout of at least $500 dollars in length. After that breakout occurs, the momentum is too great to form triangles. It will tear through the stratosphere until it eventually loses steam and forms a peak triangle. Please take this with a grain of salt. Trading halts might cause small eddies to form mini triangles on the way up. You should anticipate multiple trading halts and see "eddies" appear when the momentum is disrupted. This could be either a smooth rally, or a bumpy rally. Nobody really knows.
The height of these smooth/bumpy rallies should be positively correlated with the buying momentum. I would wager that covering shares will result in higher momentum than hedging by market makers. This is because MMs can pace out how quickly they want to buy up shares, whereas if multiple shorts begin getting margin called, even though shorts have a couple days to meet the margin call, there are way more shorts than market makers, resulting in a frenzied race to be the first to cover all their shares. This leads to more momentum than a gamma squeeze, and thus a longer breakout rally.
Of course the stages of the GME squeeze won't be binary. There will be a mix of covering, momentum trading, and gamma hedging at each step of the way. But ultimately at the end, the largest concentration of covering should happen leading up to the peak.
In short, keep your eye out for a really long breakout rally triggering multiple halts. This is a sign that you might be nearing the peak. Eventually, if you think it's peaked and hit your price target, the next step is to trade the triangle.
How does one trade a triangle?
From my experience, I usually pick across 4 different regions on the triangle to sell. I sometimes sell everything at one spot, or I sell a pic at each peak. I would personally spread my GME sell orders across different regions and not sell my entire position at once, even if the triangle finishes and begins to breakout. This is because it could go to the upside and go even higher. Therefore it would make sense to keep some shares and let those ride out.
So what does each letter point to?
The first peak of the triangle. Often you might think this is the peak, but it actually keeps going upwards signaling that the triangle has not yet formed. Thus, I usually only sell enough shares to cover my initial investment and then sell a few extra for guaranteed profit.
Pros: Potentially the highest price you can sell at.
Cons: The stock can reverse and keep shooting higher. Thus you could also potentially sell at a lower than expected price
Recommended strategy: Sell enough to cover initial investment with a moderate amount of extra shares for guaranteed gains.
The second peak forming will let you draw out a prediction for what the triangle will look like. You only reach B after the peak has formed and the price is falling back down. By connecting the two peaks and drawing both a flat and angled support, you end up with two possible predictions of what the triangle will shape up to be.
By drawing these two triangles, you can form an estimate of how much time you have left to decide on your exit strategy before the apex forms and the price breaks out.
Point B is the "telling peak" that will allow you to draw predictions. It's also a great time to sell a large amount of shares as it has basically confirmed the triangle formation. Keep in mind that sometimes the chart can be misleading. It could just be a descending channel or an extended sideways trend. Nevertheless, you can still draw out triangles in anticipation that the price continues to bounce within the triangle.
In any case, whether it's a descending channel or a triangle, you can assume that this is the second highest the price will go (unless you expect a breakout to the upside after the apex forms. In which case, this is not the Alpha Triangle).
Pros: Potentially the second highest price you can sell at. Can confirm the triangle pattern and help you anticipate future price movements.
Cons: This could be a false signal of a triangle. The worse case scenario is you sell too many shares and the price bounces and goes even higher.
Recommended strategy: Sell a moderate to large amount of shares, but not too many as you want to leave some in case it shoots up after.
By the time the apex forms, you will have confirmation that this is a triangle. At this point, you need to make the decision on whether or not to sell the majority of your remaining. Pay attention to the news. Refresh reddit. There may be new developments that signal that the squeeze can continue. In which case, the price will breakout to the upside and you should not sell. Otherwise, if you are confident, sell almost all your shares, but leave a tiny amount to ride region D if it breaks out to the upside.
Pros: Confirmation of the triangle pattern. A good place to almost completely exit.
Cons: The price may breakout to the upside again and you just sold for a low amount.
Recommended strategy: Sell the majority of your remaining shares if you are confident it will not breakout to the upside again. Check the news to see if there are telltale signs that the squeeze will continue.
Usually day traders have a threshold that confirms a breakout. Essentially the price needs to move sufficiently above or below the apex to confirm that the breakout is in the right direction. I usually just eyeball it and count 4 individual 1 minute candle sticks that are consecutively above or below the apex. That's how I confirm the breakout. Once the breakout is confirmed, you are now in Region D. The strategy for this is simple. Sell all your shares if it breaks out to the downside. Hold your remaining shares if it breaks out to the upside. Then wait for the next triangle to form and repeat this strategy. The biggest challenge is finding that Alpha Triangle. There's a chance you might be trading a non Alpha Triangle, so you might want to reduce how much you sell in each region inversely proportional to how confident you are that this is indeed the Alpha Triangle.
Pros: Confirmation of future short term movement. Breakout to upside = short term bullish movements. Vice versa.
Cons: Sometimes the breakout might be a fakeout, and it can completely 180. This doesn't happen often though.
Recommended strategy: Breakout to the upside = hold. Breakout to the downside = sell.
Comparing time data between VW and GME doesn't make much sense. But comparing trends and market dynamics does.
You've seen that triangles typically form after unsustainable peaks. Trading GME will involve spotting these triangles, looking out for the "smooth rally" caused by high momentum from covering and ultimately trading a triangle that you think is the Alpha Triangle, and setting aside however many shares you want to keep in the event that you picked the wrong triangle and the price will keep going up.
Do take all this with a grain of salt though, as a few exceptions exists that do not for triangles, but rather descending channels or a sharp price cliff. The reason why I am convinced we will see a triangle, is because triangles form from the return of buying pressure after the drop, thus reversing the downwards momentum and swinging back up like a pendulum. I expect a return of buying pressure because it will take a long time for shorts to cover. There will be continuous buying, so I don't think the price will drop sharply back to 40 dollars.
Remember that selling early is disadvantageous as it reduces the potential price ceiling. It's better to sell on a downtick than on an uptick. You won't know how high it can climb, but you can tell with a high degree of certainty if you've reached a local peak when the red candlestick pops up.
And lastly, remember there is no "us" or "we". These are simply day trading observations and strategies applied to GME. Trade GME however you want to. If you are convinced my exit strategy makes sense, feel free to give it a try! I will come back to this and add edits as I watch GME when trading resumes and try to add insightful additions to this DD. I hope to see all you apes on the moon very soon ๐๐ ๐ !
TLDR; Selling early is bad. Sell on a downtick. Look out for triangle patterns and understand how to trade them! Don't sell everything at once, scale out slowly. Try your best to time the peak and know that a telltale sign that you are near the peak is a huge green candle stick before reversing. The peak is not symmetric! The price won't drop immediately back to 40; it should bounce a few times!
damn i didnt realize that buting monero with bitcoin is a taxable event in the eyes of the IRS since the IRS sees that as the same thing as if i exchanged my bitcoin to fiat and then took the fiat and bought monero. it seems buying monero with fiat comes along with serious fees. what gives?!
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What happens in a financial crash if bitcoin rules? Disaster…
BITCOIN has had a rollercoaster ride this week, even by its own skittish standards.
The FT, an august journal that doesn’t make many jokes, said on its Alphaville blog that Her Majesty the Queen had expressed an interest in blockchain, the database which stores bitcoin data, among other things.
Bitcoiners began to wonder how many bitcoin Her Maj has amassed. There has been no official comment, but I think we can assume the answer is none.
Nevertheless, bitcoin lept $1000 on Tuesday to more than $19,000. By Wednesday it was nearing all-time highs.
The bitcoin bros were well excited.
The price is now back down to $16,802. Some of the bros have got seriously burnt fingers.
Ayush Ansal, of the hedge fund Crimson Black Capital, said: “After being in a relative wasteland for a few years since notorious bull run of late 2017, crypto, and Bitcoin in particular, are back.”
He added: “As it headed for a new record high, Bitcoin appeared to get white line fever mid-week when it dropped by more than 12% in a day.
“This, almost certainly, was triggered by a lot of long-term investors cashing in as a reward for three years of extreme volatility and abject lows.”
A wider debate being had in the City and elsewhere is just how powerful bitcoin could become.
Is it really a rival to actual currencies that have a central bank sitting behind them, such as the dollar, pound and euro. Could it actually replace them?
If it could, what does that mean for central banks’ ability to invent money and bail us out of disasters?
In the last 12 years there have been two major crises – the financial crash and Covid. Some say Brexit will make a third. Is bitcoin the impending 4th?
This week Chancellor Rishi Sunak said the UK government will borrow almost £400 billion this year. This is undoubtedly a lot, but it will occur relatively easily because the Bank of England is rock solid and because everyone in Britain needs what it controls – pounds.
At the moment bitcoin is priced in dollars. That is still its method of comparison for value.
What happens if bitcoin becomes priced in, well, bitcoin, and there were plenty of mediums of exchange, including perhaps at your local supermarket.
Simon French at Panmure Gordon said: “Then all of a sudden economic activity does not link back to official institutions and the ability of central banks and governments to influence the flow of value between private individuals is impaired. When you talk about soft power – it is not foreign aid that matters, it is controlling the agreed medium of exchange. Lose that and you are in trouble.”
Want an apocalyptic vision? Try a rejection of fiat currencies and adaptation of private digital currencies. That leaves whole swathes of economic activity outside the purview of governments and regulators. That’s nirvana for some, certainly including the bitcoin bros.
But what happens when there is a serious crash that requires emergency money, of any sort, to be magicked up and spent?
Ayush Ansal again: “Bitcoin’s obstinate refusal to go away will once again have central banks on red alert.
“If they become truly mainstream, bitcoin breaking crypto news and other cryptocurrencies represent a systemic threat to the entire banking system.
“During the Global Financial Crisis, central banks and Governments could act together to defend economies, but if a decentralised cryptocurrency becomes the norm then economies globally are arguably sitting ducks.
“In the event of a major collapse, central banks would be redundant and the damage could be not just economic but impact the very fabric of society as we know it.”
James Bentley of Financial Markets Online said:“If the world’s major currencies are decentralised, central banks will arguably be helpless in the event of a future financial crisis.
“All the tools that central banks traditionally use will be redundant. It will be like turning up to a gun fight with a knife.”
Crypto currency has cyberpunk roots. At its inception, it was designed as an alternative to the banking system – and a way to bypass the power of central banks to control the money supply.
Maybe that dream has died – now it is just another volatile asset class on which fans can take a punt.
But every time it emerges into the mainstream. Such as when it is rumoured that the Queen is taking an interest and some folk think that is plausible, blood pressures at the Bank of England the US Federal Reserve rise.
Perhaps we should all really buy some bitcoin. Come the end of the world, we might actually need it.
CRYPTOCURRENCY
Union Minister Anurag Thakur on Saturday said the government is open to evaluate and explore new technologies, including cryptocurrencies, for improving governance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself is a strong advocate of embracing technology in various aspects of governance, the Minister of State for Finance said while addressing an event organised by Entrepreneurs' Organisation – EO Punjab.
"Let me say that we welcome innovation and new technology…blockchain is a new emerging technology. breaking crypto news is a form of virtual currency. I firmly believe that we must always evaluate, explore and encourage new ideas with an open mind," he said. A High-Level Inter-Ministerial Committee (IMC) was constituted under the chairmanship of economic affairs secretary on digital currencies and it has submitted its report.
Cryptocurrency ban will be unprecedented, govt bitcoin defeats purpose, say experts
The government would take a decision on the recommendations of the IMC and the legislative proposal, if any, would be introduced in Parliament following the due process, he said while inviting suggestions and views on this issue. Cryptocurrencies are digital or virtual currencies in which encryption techniques are used to regulate the generation of their units and verify the transfer of funds, operating independently of a central bank.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday said the government is still formulating its opinion on cryptocurrencies and will take a calibrated position. Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das had last week said the apex bank has certain "major concerns" over the impact cryptocurrencies may have on the financial stability in the economy and has conveyed the same to the government.
The RBI had virtually banned cryptocurrency trading in 2018 and had directed all entities regulated by the central bank to cease dealing in virtual currencies. The Supreme Court had also asked the Centre in 2019 to frame policies for crypto, and in 2020, struck down the curbs imposed by the RBI. The Reserve Bank had through various public notices on December 24, 2013, February 1, 2017 and December 5, 2017, cautioned users, holders and traders of virtual currencies, including bitcoins, regarding various risks associated in dealing with such virtual currencies.
A few things happening that could push Bitcoin higher.
1) $1.9 Trillion stimulus package, passed by the Senate this weekend, it heads back to Congress for passage of the changes the Senate made. Assuming they pass it this week it will be on Biden’s desk for approval which he will certainly sign. That’s $1.9 Trillion of new printed dollars.
2) The Repo market is completely frozen and the 10 year Treasury within the Repo market traded at -4.25% on Friday, the first time ever. Normally -3% is the floor but things became worse very quickly. With Repo frozen it will limit banks from lending crushing the economy and you know the Fed’s answer, money printer go brrrrr.
3) The Fed refusing to intervene with the Yield Curve Control as shorts have taken over the 2 & 10 year Treasury market pushing yields over 1.5% for the first time in a year. Assuming this continues the Fed will be forced to do Operation Twist 3.0 which will revolve around Yield Curve Control. I know you guys know what that means, money printer goes brrrrr.
With these three events possibly happening at the same time we could easily see $3 - $4 Trillion printed in the next few weeks, if that happens it’s extremely bullish for Bitcoin.
A few things happening that could push Bitcoin higher.
1) $1.9 Trillion stimulus package, passed by the Senate this weekend, it heads back to Congress for passage of the changes the Senate made. Assuming they pass it this week it will be on Biden’s desk for approval which he will certainly sign. That’s $1.9 Trillion of new printed dollars.
2) The Repo market is completely frozen and the 10 year Treasury within the Repo market traded at -4.25% on Friday, the first time ever. Normally -3% is the floor but things became worse very quickly. With Repo frozen it will limit banks from lending crushing the economy and you know the Fed’s answer, money printer go brrrrr.
3) The Fed refusing to intervene with the Yield Curve Control as shorts have taken over the 2 & 10 year Treasury market pushing yields over 1.5% for the first time in a year. Assuming this continues the Fed will be forced to do Operation Twist 3.0 which will revolve around Yield Curve Control. I know you guys know what that means, money printer goes brrrrr.
With these three events possibly happening at the same time we could easily see $3 - $4 Trillion printed in the next few weeks, if that happens it’s extremely bullish for Bitcoin.
This will not only be bullish for the price of Bitcoin but also for the Lightning Network, as more people realize they need Bitcoin they will be looking for a way to spend it and the LN is a perfect solution.
What is Alcor:
The Alcor Life Extension Foundation, most often referred to as Alcor, is an American nonprofit organization based in Scottsdale, Arizona, United States. Alcor advocates for, researches, and performs cryonics, the freezing of human corpses and brains in liquid nitrogen after legal death, with hopes of resurrecting and restoring them to full health in the event some new technology can be developed in the future. Cryonics is regarded with skepticism within the mainstream scientific community and has been characterized as quackery and pseudoscience.
Who is Satoshi Nakamoto:
Satoshi Nakamoto is the name used by the presumed pseudonymous person or persons who developed bitcoin, authored the bitcoin white paper, and created and deployed bitcoin's original reference implementation. As part of the implementation, Nakamoto also devised the first blockchain database. In the process, Nakamoto was the first to solve the double-spending problem for digital currency using a peer-to-peer network. Nakamoto was active in the development of bitcoin up until December 2010. Many people have claimed, or have been claimed, to be Nakamoto.
Who is Hal Finney:
Harold Thomas Finney II (May 4, 1956 – August 28, 2014) was a developer for PGP Corporation, and was the second developer hired after Phil Zimmermann. In his early career, he was credited as lead developer on several console games. He also was an early bitcoin contributor and received the first bitcoin transaction from bitcoin's creator Satoshi Nakamoto. There are many evidences that Hal is Satoshi Nakamoto.
https://news.bitcoin.com/the-many-facts-pointing-to-hal-finney-being-satoshi/
What if Hal Finney is really the creator of Bitcoin, he knew bitcoin will be huge, so he froze himself. The last Bitcoin will be mined in 2140, so Hal will unfreeze himself in 2150 and be most powerful man in the world?
BTC lending is a very compelling option for lenders that hold Bitcoin.
In many tax jurisdictions, perhaps in the U.S. as well, (I'm not a tax expert, and this is not financial advice), exchanging BTC for WBTC could be a taxable capital asset event despite the underlying protocol being Bitcoin. By being able to lend BTC directly it may potentially reduce lenders' tax liability for long-term capital asset gains rather than converting BTC to WBTC.
According to a Telegram admin, this feature is a priority for the team within the year.
I'd like to know if swapping BTC for pegged rBTC to be used on it's layer 2 blockchain a taxable event?
Basically what happens when exchanging BTC for RBTC (RSK BTC), is that the Federation nodes receive some BTC and block their use within the network. Upon receiving these BTCs, the Federation authorizes the issuance of the same amount of RBTCs on the RSK network. When RBTC needs to be converted back to BTC, RBTC is blocked on the RSK network and the same amount of BTC is unlocked on the Bitcoin network. A swap structure that allows RSK participation securely.
I plan to swap from BTC to rBTC to lend and once done I will be swapping back, unlocking and returning the originally swapped Bitcoin to my wallet.
I understand any gains I made from lending will be taxable but is the swap that will lock up my bitcoin for rBTC taxable as well? This isn't clear to me as I'm not doing a permanent exchange of Bitcoin. The Bitcoin is held or locked in a contract until I return the exact same amount in rBTC.
One user referred to her husband as "brainwashed" over Bitcoin, saying he was ruining her job by bringing up crypto at her marketing events.
Crypto investments have reportedly been a source of strife in relationships, sometimes leading to breakups and even divorce.
According to a Reddit post from February 2015, a then 28-year-old woman using a throwaway account claimed that she was incredibly upset at her husband, who had not stopped purchasing Bitcoin (BTC) since 2013 without consulting her. She estimated that he had bought more than $22,000 in the crypto asset in the two years prior to the post, when the price reached a high of more than $1,000 but also dipped under $200.
“I kept telling him to sell as the price was rising and he promised me a big year in 2014,” she said. “The price kept falling and he continued to buy more. He makes more money than I do but we are building a future together and we have a shared bank account. He kept telling me this was for our kids’ college fund, to buy a house, etc.”
In the early days of Bitcoin and crypto when digital currencies were often used as a running joke for late night talk shows and comedians, many considered investing in the technology financially immature at the very least. Some people still do, even with the BTC price at more than $50,000 again.
The Redditor referred to her husband as “brainwashed,” saying he was “robbing [her] of happiness” and ruining her job by bringing up Bitcoin at her marketing events.
It’s unclear whether the couple stayed together following the response from the post, or if the husband sold some or all of the Bitcoin to ameliorate his wife’s financial concerns. The user compared her spouse to a drug addict and considered "staying in a hotel for a few weeks" to think about whether divorce was an option.
However, with the benefit of hindsight, the husband’s early investment could have easily paid off in the millions of dollars. Even assuming he purchased BTC after the price surge to $1,000 in November 2013, the 22 coins would now be worth more than $1 million.
Because the story was posted on the r/relationships subreddit rather than a pro-crypto group like r/Bitcoin or r/cryptocurrency, many of the Redditors encouraged the user to separate her finances and consider divorce proceedings. Few crypto enthusiasts jumped on the thread to comment, but one predicted that the BTC would one day be "worth fortunes" and recommended the husband continue to HODL.
Another story from a Redditor following the 2017 bull run — which brought in many newbies to the crypto space — claimed that his girlfriend was considering breaking up with him following "a huge investment in cryptocurrencies." However, digital currencies seem to have played less of a role in his story, as the user said he crashed a car while driving drunk and was pressuring his significant other to leave her job.
Though many crypto traders know the price of Bitcoin and other digital currencies will likely continue to be volatile, the adoption and investment from major companies have helped push the technology closer to the mainstream, and made it seemingly more responsible for investors to get in on the action earlier rather than later. Already Shark Tank star Kevin O’Leary has claimed to have increased his stake in Bitcoin while asset management firm Third Point CEO Dan Loeb recently said he had been doing a "deep dive into crypto."
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Hi everyone, happy Sunday...or is it? Let's find out shall we?
Before I post my first chart, I want to address the elephant in the room, the ending of stage 2 liquidity farming at 1INCH and what this potentially means. For anyone keeping an eye on the TVL, you'll know that 1INCH has lost 40% in TVL, this is not people pulling their investments from 1INCH but rather just a natural state of affairs with regards to a farming round coming to an end. Now there are a couple of scenarios that we need to be aware of.
A) Everyone whom farmed brings their 1INCH rewards to market and dumps them thus suffocating the price...again....in order to move to the next "attractive" farming opportunity.
B) Everyone keeps their rewards and actually stake it for 25% APY as 1INCH has the best staking APY on the DeFi scene. Prices remain stable as people opt for stable long returns.
C) We see a mix of A and B where the price will wobble but remain largely stable (sideways consolidation).
It's always good to break these events down to worst case, best case and most likely case as it allows us to put things firmly in to perspective. I for one see option C as the most realistic outcome because of a number of factors. There will be gold rush farming elsewhere, few want "small but stable" rewards, 1INCH may yet announce a stage 3 or the 1inch community may decide to scrap farming rewards in favour of focusing on increasing the staking reward further than 25% to reward long-term investment and to offer stability to the ecosystem.
It's going to be interesting, come what may.
Anyway, on to the charts!
1INCH continues a clear sideways consolidation trajectory, this is really good because it is signalling price stability but bear in mind about the end of stage 2 liquidity farming which could see the price fall to the bottom of my trade channel but I don't think we'll see a complete breakdown of price when considering the best, worst and most likely case scenario.
As it stands, continued consolidation is positive as we can finally be in a position to move up especially as Bitcoin is now in to it's sixth day of consolidation marking a full slowdown, if not stop, to the Bitcoin Bull-Run and so, historically speaking, we know that alts tend to build up traction as Bitcoin becomes "boring" in terms of price action.
The median line of the Bollinger Band is coming down to meet the price point of 1INCH and could see the price rise above the median line in a good signal for a trend reversal but to add a cloud to that silver lining, I would prefer if the price broke the median line as opposed to the median line falling below the active price on the grounds of averages, still, I'll take it as a small win.
1INCH remains firmly in the trade channel created by the two linear projection lines which is positive as we are still on course for $17 by the end of the year.
Another interesting thing to note is that the zone of the trade channel is almost an identical match to the first zone of the Fib Extension tool which could be a confirmation that the lines on that zone are indeed the lines of significant support and resistance. Just something to ponder over for the future.
The RSI and StochRSI are convergent in as much as they both are in the active trade zone but the MACD still shows we are in negative pressure territory, if the MACD crosses over then I'd be inclined to suggest that the RSI and StochRSI are both going to continue their journey to the overbought zone as a pump ensues.
So yesterday's depth chart margin has slipped a little but remains firmly in the grasp of buyers from the active price point down to $3.5. This could see 1INCH move back to finishing the week on $4 which will be a nice way to end the week.
On the overall picture via the depth chart, the buyer to seller ratio is at 2.1:1 meaning that sellers have the overall strength in the market but with buyers holding the line and showing more demand in and around the current price point, we could see sellers start to move their assets further up the ladder to let that price accumulate a small portion of pace.
Sentiment has bounced back but I believe this may drop with the ending of stage 2 liquidity farming so don't be worried if this falls in dramatic fashion as people rush to assess their positions.
There have been no dramatic moves on the market cap/price point so figures are all showing continued sideways consolidation.
Now for the spreadsheet. As I pointed out earlier, the TVL has shed 40%, this is normal as liquidity farming comes to an end. The big questions are, will 1INCH offer a stage 3? Will investors want the abnormally large APY reward for long-term staking? What will be the new "normal" for the TVL if no stage 3 is offered? It's slightly frustrating as we were just forming a stable picture of the TVL through the Bitcoin wobbles but as much as it can be unnerving when such a situation occurs, it will be interesting to watch what exactly happens.
The M.Cap/TVL ratio is currently at 0.6:1 so even with a shedding of 40% of the TVL, 1INCH remains firmly undervalued which is a strong indicator that even if a stage 3 for farming was not announced, investors would continue to see 1INCH as a lucrative opportunity.
The PSR value has only fallen marginally as the market cap and traded 24 hour volume stabilise at their current prices so 1INCH remains over-priced and at this point I would not suggest looking at buying more 1INCH until we have a clearer picture of what to expect with the end of stage 2 farming.
I hope you all continue to find this reporting helpful in making the best informed decisions as to do with your 1INCH positions or if you are looking to acquire a position.
Remember, I currently offer 5 weekly reports on my Patreon which will moving to 7 reports so feel free to pop by my Patreon page at https://www.patreon.com/isce if you want to support my reporting.
If your budget cannot stretch to that, no worries because this report always remains free and all I ask is that you try to "pay the kindness forward" to someone who may need it in the future.
As always, I hope you have a good day and KEEP IT GREEN!
Hi everyone, happy Sunday...or is it? Let's find out shall we?
Before I post my first chart, I want to address the elephant in the room, the ending of stage 2 liquidity farming at 1INCH and what this potentially means. For anyone keeping an eye on the TVL, you'll know that 1INCH has lost 40% in TVL, this is not people pulling their investments from 1INCH but rather just a natural state of affairs with regards to a farming round coming to an end. Now there are a couple of scenarios that we need to be aware of.
A) Everyone whom farmed brings their 1INCH rewards to market and dumps them thus suffocating the price...again....in order to move to the next "attractive" farming opportunity.
B) Everyone keeps their rewards and actually stake it for 25% APY as 1INCH has the best staking APY on the DeFi scene. Prices remain stable as people opt for stable long returns.
C) We see a mix of A and B where the price will wobble but remain largely stable (sideways consolidation).
It's always good to break these events down to worst case, best case and most likely case as it allows us to put things firmly in to perspective. I for one see option C as the most realistic outcome because of a number of factors. There will be gold rush farming elsewhere, few want "small but stable" rewards, 1INCH may yet announce a stage 3 or the 1inch community may decide to scrap farming rewards in favour of focusing on increasing the staking reward further than 25% to reward long-term investment and to offer stability to the ecosystem.
It's going to be interesting, come what may.
Anyway, on to the charts!
1INCH continues a clear sideways consolidation trajectory, this is really good because it is signalling price stability but bear in mind about the end of stage 2 liquidity farming which could see the price fall to the bottom of my trade channel but I don't think we'll see a complete breakdown of price when considering the best, worst and most likely case scenario.
As it stands, continued consolidation is positive as we can finally be in a position to move up especially as Bitcoin is now in to it's sixth day of consolidation marking a full slowdown, if not stop, to the Bitcoin Bull-Run and so, historically speaking, we know that alts tend to build up traction as Bitcoin becomes "boring" in terms of price action.
The median line of the Bollinger Band is coming down to meet the price point of 1INCH and could see the price rise above the median line in a good signal for a trend reversal but to add a cloud to that silver lining, I would prefer if the price broke the median line as opposed to the median line falling below the active price on the grounds of averages, still, I'll take it as a small win.
1INCH remains firmly in the trade channel created by the two linear projection lines which is positive as we are still on course for $17 by the end of the year.
Another interesting thing to note is that the zone of the trade channel is almost an identical match to the first zone of the Fib Extension tool which could be a confirmation that the lines on that zone are indeed the lines of significant support and resistance. Just something to ponder over for the future.
The RSI and StochRSI are convergent in as much as they both are in the active trade zone but the MACD still shows we are in negative pressure territory, if the MACD crosses over then I'd be inclined to suggest that the RSI and StochRSI are both going to continue their journey to the overbought zone as a pump ensues.
So yesterday's depth chart margin has slipped a little but remains firmly in the grasp of buyers from the active price point down to $3.5. This could see 1INCH move back to finishing the week on $4 which will be a nice way to end the week.
On the overall picture via the depth chart, the buyer to seller ratio is at 2.1:1 meaning that sellers have the overall strength in the market but with buyers holding the line and showing more demand in and around the current price point, we could see sellers start to move their assets further up the ladder to let that price accumulate a small portion of pace.
Sentiment has bounced back but I believe this may drop with the ending of stage 2 liquidity farming so don't be worried if this falls in dramatic fashion as people rush to assess their positions.
There have been no dramatic moves on the market cap/price point so figures are all showing continued sideways consolidation.
Now for the spreadsheet. As I pointed out earlier, the TVL has shed 40%, this is normal as liquidity farming comes to an end. The big questions are, will 1INCH offer a stage 3? Will investors want the abnormally large APY reward for long-term staking? What will be the new "normal" for the TVL if no stage 3 is offered? It's slightly frustrating as we were just forming a stable picture of the TVL through the Bitcoin wobbles but as much as it can be unnerving when such a situation occurs, it will be interesting to watch what exactly happens.
The M.Cap/TVL ratio is currently at 0.6:1 so even with a shedding of 40% of the TVL, 1INCH remains firmly undervalued which is a strong indicator that even if a stage 3 for farming was not announced, investors would continue to see 1INCH as a lucrative opportunity.
The PSR value has only fallen marginally as the market cap and traded 24 hour volume stabilise at their current prices so 1INCH remains over-priced and at this point I would not suggest looking at buying more 1INCH until we have a clearer picture of what to expect with the end of stage 2 farming.
I hope you all continue to find this reporting helpful in making the best informed decisions as to do with your 1INCH positions or if you are looking to acquire a position.
Remember, I currently offer 5 weekly reports on my Patreon which will moving to 7 reports so feel free to pop by my Patreon page at https://www.patreon.com/isce if you want to support my reporting.
If your budget cannot stretch to that, no worries because this report always remains free and all I ask is that you try to "pay the kindness forward" to someone who may need it in the future.
As always, I hope you have a good day and KEEP IT GREEN!
Hi everyone, happy Sunday...or is it? Let's find out shall we?
Before I post my first chart, I want to address the elephant in the room, the ending of stage 2 liquidity farming at 1INCH and what this potentially means. For anyone keeping an eye on the TVL, you'll know that 1INCH has lost 40% in TVL, this is not people pulling their investments from 1INCH but rather just a natural state of affairs with regards to a farming round coming to an end. Now there are a couple of scenarios that we need to be aware of.
A) Everyone whom farmed brings their 1INCH rewards to market and dumps them thus suffocating the price...again....in order to move to the next "attractive" farming opportunity.
B) Everyone keeps their rewards and actually stake it for 25% APY as 1INCH has the best staking APY on the DeFi scene. Prices remain stable as people opt for stable long returns.
C) We see a mix of A and B where the price will wobble but remain largely stable (sideways consolidation).
It's always good to break these events down to worst case, best case and most likely case as it allows us to put things firmly in to perspective. I for one see option C as the most realistic outcome because of a number of factors. There will be gold rush farming elsewhere, few want "small but stable" rewards, 1INCH may yet announce a stage 3 or the 1inch community may decide to scrap farming rewards in favour of focusing on increasing the staking reward further than 25% to reward long-term investment and to offer stability to the ecosystem.
It's going to be interesting, come what may.
Anyway, on to the charts!
1INCH continues a clear sideways consolidation trajectory, this is really good because it is signalling price stability but bear in mind about the end of stage 2 liquidity farming which could see the price fall to the bottom of my trade channel but I don't think we'll see a complete breakdown of price when considering the best, worst and most likely case scenario.
As it stands, continued consolidation is positive as we can finally be in a position to move up especially as Bitcoin is now in to it's sixth day of consolidation marking a full slowdown, if not stop, to the Bitcoin Bull-Run and so, historically speaking, we know that alts tend to build up traction as Bitcoin becomes "boring" in terms of price action.
The median line of the Bollinger Band is coming down to meet the price point of 1INCH and could see the price rise above the median line in a good signal for a trend reversal but to add a cloud to that silver lining, I would prefer if the price broke the median line as opposed to the median line falling below the active price on the grounds of averages, still, I'll take it as a small win.
1INCH remains firmly in the trade channel created by the two linear projection lines which is positive as we are still on course for $17 by the end of the year.
Another interesting thing to note is that the zone of the trade channel is almost an identical match to the first zone of the Fib Extension tool which could be a confirmation that the lines on that zone are indeed the lines of significant support and resistance. Just something to ponder over for the future.
The RSI and StochRSI are convergent in as much as they both are in the active trade zone but the MACD still shows we are in negative pressure territory, if the MACD crosses over then I'd be inclined to suggest that the RSI and StochRSI are both going to continue their journey to the overbought zone as a pump ensues.
So yesterday's depth chart margin has slipped a little but remains firmly in the grasp of buyers from the active price point down to $3.5. This could see 1INCH move back to finishing the week on $4 which will be a nice way to end the week.
On the overall picture via the depth chart, the buyer to seller ratio is at 2.1:1 meaning that sellers have the overall strength in the market but with buyers holding the line and showing more demand in and around the current price point, we could see sellers start to move their assets further up the ladder to let that price accumulate a small portion of pace.
Sentiment has bounced back but I believe this may drop with the ending of stage 2 liquidity farming so don't be worried if this falls in dramatic fashion as people rush to assess their positions.
There have been no dramatic moves on the market cap/price point so figures are all showing continued sideways consolidation.
Now for the spreadsheet. As I pointed out earlier, the TVL has shed 40%, this is normal as liquidity farming comes to an end. The big questions are, will 1INCH offer a stage 3? Will investors want the abnormally large APY reward for long-term staking? What will be the new "normal" for the TVL if no stage 3 is offered? It's slightly frustrating as we were just forming a stable picture of the TVL through the Bitcoin wobbles but as much as it can be unnerving when such a situation occurs, it will be interesting to watch what exactly happens.
The M.Cap/TVL ratio is currently at 0.6:1 so even with a shedding of 40% of the TVL, 1INCH remains firmly undervalued which is a strong indicator that even if a stage 3 for farming was not announced, investors would continue to see 1INCH as a lucrative opportunity.
The PSR value has only fallen marginally as the market cap and traded 24 hour volume stabilise at their current prices so 1INCH remains over-priced and at this point I would not suggest looking at buying more 1INCH until we have a clearer picture of what to expect with the end of stage 2 farming.
I hope you all continue to find this reporting helpful in making the best informed decisions as to do with your 1INCH positions or if you are looking to acquire a position.
Remember, I currently offer 5 weekly reports on my Patreon which will moving to 7 reports so feel free to pop by my Patreon page at https://www.patreon.com/isce if you want to support my reporting.
If your budget cannot stretch to that, no worries because this report always remains free and all I ask is that you try to "pay the kindness forward" to someone who may need it in the future.
As always, I hope you have a good day and KEEP IT GREEN!
Hi everyone, happy Sunday...or is it? Let's find out shall we?
Before I post my first chart, I want to address the elephant in the room, the ending of stage 2 liquidity farming at 1INCH and what this potentially means. For anyone keeping an eye on the TVL, you'll know that 1INCH has lost 40% in TVL, this is not people pulling their investments from 1INCH but rather just a natural state of affairs with regards to a farming round coming to an end. Now there are a couple of scenarios that we need to be aware of.
A) Everyone whom farmed brings their 1INCH rewards to market and dumps them thus suffocating the price...again....in order to move to the next "attractive" farming opportunity.
B) Everyone keeps their rewards and actually stake it for 25% APY as 1INCH has the best staking APY on the DeFi scene. Prices remain stable as people opt for stable long returns.
C) We see a mix of A and B where the price will wobble but remain largely stable (sideways consolidation).
It's always good to break these events down to worst case, best case and most likely case as it allows us to put things firmly in to perspective. I for one see option C as the most realistic outcome because of a number of factors. There will be gold rush farming elsewhere, few want "small but stable" rewards, 1INCH may yet announce a stage 3 or the 1inch community may decide to scrap farming rewards in favour of focusing on increasing the staking reward further than 25% to reward long-term investment and to offer stability to the ecosystem.
It's going to be interesting, come what may.
Anyway, on to the charts!
1INCH continues a clear sideways consolidation trajectory, this is really good because it is signalling price stability but bear in mind about the end of stage 2 liquidity farming which could see the price fall to the bottom of my trade channel but I don't think we'll see a complete breakdown of price when considering the best, worst and most likely case scenario.
As it stands, continued consolidation is positive as we can finally be in a position to move up especially as Bitcoin is now in to it's sixth day of consolidation marking a full slowdown, if not stop, to the Bitcoin Bull-Run and so, historically speaking, we know that alts tend to build up traction as Bitcoin becomes "boring" in terms of price action.
The median line of the Bollinger Band is coming down to meet the price point of 1INCH and could see the price rise above the median line in a good signal for a trend reversal but to add a cloud to that silver lining, I would prefer if the price broke the median line as opposed to the median line falling below the active price on the grounds of averages, still, I'll take it as a small win.
1INCH remains firmly in the trade channel created by the two linear projection lines which is positive as we are still on course for $17 by the end of the year.
Another interesting thing to note is that the zone of the trade channel is almost an identical match to the first zone of the Fib Extension tool which could be a confirmation that the lines on that zone are indeed the lines of significant support and resistance. Just something to ponder over for the future.
The RSI and StochRSI are convergent in as much as they both are in the active trade zone but the MACD still shows we are in negative pressure territory, if the MACD crosses over then I'd be inclined to suggest that the RSI and StochRSI are both going to continue their journey to the overbought zone as a pump ensues.
So yesterday's depth chart margin has slipped a little but remains firmly in the grasp of buyers from the active price point down to $3.5. This could see 1INCH move back to finishing the week on $4 which will be a nice way to end the week.
On the overall picture via the depth chart, the buyer to seller ratio is at 2.1:1 meaning that sellers have the overall strength in the market but with buyers holding the line and showing more demand in and around the current price point, we could see sellers start to move their assets further up the ladder to let that price accumulate a small portion of pace.
Sentiment has bounced back but I believe this may drop with the ending of stage 2 liquidity farming so don't be worried if this falls in dramatic fashion as people rush to assess their positions.
There have been no dramatic moves on the market cap/price point so figures are all showing continued sideways consolidation.
Now for the spreadsheet. As I pointed out earlier, the TVL has shed 40%, this is normal as liquidity farming comes to an end. The big questions are, will 1INCH offer a stage 3? Will investors want the abnormally large APY reward for long-term staking? What will be the new "normal" for the TVL if no stage 3 is offered? It's slightly frustrating as we were just forming a stable picture of the TVL through the Bitcoin wobbles but as much as it can be unnerving when such a situation occurs, it will be interesting to watch what exactly happens.
The M.Cap/TVL ratio is currently at 0.6:1 so even with a shedding of 40% of the TVL, 1INCH remains firmly undervalued which is a strong indicator that even if a stage 3 for farming was not announced, investors would continue to see 1INCH as a lucrative opportunity.
The PSR value has only fallen marginally as the market cap and traded 24 hour volume stabilise at their current prices so 1INCH remains over-priced and at this point I would not suggest looking at buying more 1INCH until we have a clearer picture of what to expect with the end of stage 2 farming.
I hope you all continue to find this reporting helpful in making the best informed decisions as to do with your 1INCH positions or if you are looking to acquire a position.
Remember, I currently offer 5 weekly reports on my Patreon which will moving to 7 reports so feel free to pop by my Patreon page at https://www.patreon.com/isce if you want to support my reporting.
If your budget cannot stretch to that, no worries because this report always remains free and all I ask is that you try to "pay the kindness forward" to someone who may need it in the future.
As always, I hope you have a good day and KEEP IT GREEN!
