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Missed the call yesterday unfortunately, but the first call (gov/risk) had a lot of good questions regarding the stability fee and how large the moves are when it moves. Velocity of changes wanting to be made, etc...
I think for the MakerDAO team, if they set a baseline of priorities over the short/medium/long term. Starting with those, and working backwards basically. These also may very well exist, but if not, here's some examples.
Protocol goals --> Categories involved --> Choose the optimal which will only amplified +EV the more that time goes on.
Protocol Goals
// Examples //
Short term (<18 months): "We are prioritizing new CDP creation from unique wallets, as opposed to growing the market cap of Dai. We feel that planting this groundwork while we're still early from McD, and collateral selection remains to be finalized, the most value is to bring more and more CDP's into the picture. In the future, this base has better changes to be more distributed in accessibility. Some markets can appreciate it much more, and the more knowledgable and active CDP users there are, the faster we get to reach these markets that can take advantage of it.
Medium term (3-5 years): "We wanted new CDP's at first, because that was to plant a base of educated users, that will help others understand faster, while also having a large count of CDP's can allow for a broad distribution where Dai can be drawn down.
Long term (5-7+ years): Create a global currency that is supported by the participants and not a select few. Ensuring stability, borderless distribution. Delivering much needed financial services, for underbanked in established economies and unbanked in 3rd world countries. Decentralized, distributed, borderless. Fair.
Verticals For Consideration
Dai market cap.
Given the size of the market today, the actual markets overall sentiment it seems like it's a great chance to stay methodical and diligent as we see an increase in the growth of the protocol. If there's another bull-run on the horizon, then doubling down on things that have been out in the wild for a period of time (ETH cdp's to generate Dai) doesn't seem like the correct play. Appreciate the "quiet" (crazy level of adoption for you guys even in the bear market) time to stay heads down crossing t's and dotting i's if you're given the time. Whenever the next bull run is, seems like late next year or the following year, then utilizing this time should be largely on things that you don't want to be putting into production a week before things start 10x'ing m/m and lasts about 12 months. Yikes!
McDai Asset Critera
Multi-Collateral Dai rollout
I'm ultra bullish in the team knowing best on these things. I feel like that's largely the sentiment of many other community members backing the core team. Collateral selection is not easy, but when it's coupled with a set of chronological priorities it can drastically reduce the risk of the (Maker) DAO drifting off it's initial trajectory. If it was all about Dai in circulation, then tokenizing the empire state building would be a quick path to that mark. That said, you'd want to be looking for what can carry the largest amount of value over the longest amount of time and (ideally) across the most diverse set of conditions.
Optimal Asset - Bitcoin. Why?
// Very specifically talking about Bitcoin in a trustless implementation, not in the IOU sense which would be closer to wBTC's implementation. Which btw, I'm thrilled to see, as progress is better than no progress. I'm thrilled. I'm not suggesting that an ERC-20 token is bad, this would be an ERC-20... But the security and trust mechanisms that surround it feel troubling to a lot of the core value that Dai drives to many of the users.
// wBTC introduces the most desirable honeypot, amongst a large number of participants operating in a DAO, and minting/burning etc... Not as a knock, but if something were to go wrong, it'd come back in spades from the users effected. In the world of stablecoins, the best thing you really have is reliability. This approach feels like a bigger risk than many are considering. It's awesome, but all the patience in execution, and years doing things insanely diligently it seems like this is a potential hand grenade!
The case for Bitcoin - (Category: Digitally Native).
Bitcoin has the lowest education barrier for acquiring new users.
Bitcoin is likely to appreciate in value if crypto is going to stay around. Dai's market cap gets to inflate on the back of this. Considerably large upside before it's reached any sort of maturity in distribution/adoption/liquidity.
It's native from day 0. This is really important, especially for Dai. The separator between Dai and the rest is that it's unable to be frozen, or compromised in the real world which impacts it on the technical level.
The largest amount of trade activity on a daily basis is Bitcoin, covering 60%+ on any given day. Big push for the ecosystem and can provide a much longer term benefit into a bridge between key protocols.
Large amounts of holdings, true to the term "hodl'ing" means there's a perfect opportunity for a trustless, secure solution where anyone that is hodling, can scoop up extra gains if they were collateralizing into CDP's etc...
BTC-20 will also capture rapid adoption as most exchanges running multiple chains are dealing with significant amounts of edge cases for each daemon (Bitcoin, Litecoin, etc...). This slides right into the format they're primarily using for trading activity under the hood.
Stability Fee / Savings Rate.
The cross-over between these two. Subsidizing from a higher stability fee to deliver on the Dai savings rate. going to incentivize capital from other assets into Dai (great, grows the market cap, right?) Well if the team believes that the single best thing that can be focused on to provide defensibility/scalability/etc... Then this wouldn't align with that obviously.
As the broader market evolves more aggressively with fiat-stablecoins, the competition to attract AUM is going to end up becoming a rev share game. More AUM means a better savings deposit rate from the bank partner, that means more incentives to subsidize users to choose [insertCoin].
This isn't a bad thing to any extent, though it's something to be considered with every decision. The threatened outlook says that someone could come along and take the market opportunity away from Dai to be the leading stablecoin. Maybe that's USDC, maybe that's GUSD, sUSD, who knows. The opportunity with those events unfolding is that the hardest leg of the adoption is now being outsourced and distributed. Getting a person to convert from GUSD to DAI is much much simpler than trying to get a PayPal user to go from PayPal to Dai. Worth keeping that in mind :)
Sorry for rambling!
I'm pretty much the biggest MakerDAO fan around, and just thought that I'd share how I evaluate things for myself (not that you asked hahaha) and if there's holes in my approach and/or if I'm overlooking/underestimating various pieces of this gnarly puzzle!
Also - Not sure if others consider the premise of a systemic level problem, but the premise of state backups every n blocks, or insurance contract, etc... Would be interested to know, or maybe I'm just being a little over-cautious?
Likely you didn't make it this far down the post. If you did..... /tip +0.1 Doge
All of the above is intended to be a way to spark some thoughts and discussion. My faith sits totally with the MakerDAO core team. They've demonstrated patience, and pragmatic decisions for maintaining their pace to market and scaling. Totally rad!
*Edit: FYI, this stuff has literally never been done before. So that means that there is going to be changes, there's going to be ambiguity and uncertainty at times. Which is 100% part of the process :) So if you're tough to stomach the rollercoaster (which is 100% understandable) then you're never far from pushing pause, and coming back into this ride at a later date! Either way, the team's probably not a fan of the unknown curve-ball/rollercoaster situations so they're doing their best to consider risks in the unknowns, strategy, speed, sustainability, and trying to come up with one that provides the highest level of confidence I'd imagine.
Thanks!
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I had a conversation recently with someone that made me wonder if there is a lot of confusion about the relation between public keys and Bitcoin addresses, so I thought I'd make a brief post explaining for interested parties this difference.
As most people know public key cryptography, particularly the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), is important to Bitcoin. In this cryptographic scheme an asymmetric key-pair is generated, a public key, which can be shared with anyone, and a private key which should be known by only you. In Bitcoin, with ECDSA, your private key is used to sign a transaction, confirming that it was in fact you, the rightful owner of a given UTXO or some set of UTXOs who is sending them off to some other address. Any arbitrary person (miners, people running validation nodes or SPV wallets) can confirm that it was you who sent the transaction because included in the transaction is your public key. Your public key will revert the cryptographic transformation done by your private key, thus allowing people to verify that the transaction being signed is in fact the one under consideration, and that it originates from the holder of the private key corresponding to this public key.
Missing from my explanation above is how transaction validators know the public key for a given Bitcoin address. A natural assumption might be that Bitcoin addresses are ECDSA public keys. This assumption is natural, but incorrect. Bitcoin Address are hashes of public keys (pubkey hashes). With this scheme, your public key is only ever exposed when you transact with Bitcoin. Validators verify that a public key you provide for a transaction is correct for your Bitcoin address by hashing that public key and making sure that the hash of the public key is equivalent with the pubkey hash.
Some corollaries of using the pubkey hash instead of the public key for Bitcoin Addresses are:
Expanding on the second point, suppose tomorrow a Quantum Computer came out with enough qubits to solve the currently intractable discrete logarithm problem of determining an ECDSA private key from a public key. If you had been following the Bitcoin best practice of not re-using addresses when you transact your Bitcoin, then the only window of opportunity for a thief would be the time before your Bitcoin gets added to a block when you were transacting with it.
Unlike public key cryptography, cryptographic hashes themselves are not particularly vulnerable to the advent of quantum computing.
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Maybe we will see a downturn in the price of ICX when BTC and BCH fund is released or maybe we won't. But be aware of this fellow holders:
"there is also the matter of the Mt. Gox coin distribution event. Approval for the civil rehabilitation plan will come in February 2019. After that, the first round of payments to creditors is planned to process “as soon as possible” though this may actually start sometime between May and June 2019. Mt. Gox still holds about 166,000 BTC and 168,000 BCH, currently valued at $665.5 million."
Mt. Gox wallet monitor:
https://www.cryptoground.com/mtgox-cold-wallet-monitor/
https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-price-events-2019/
If you dont know what Mt. Gox is then read this: https://blockonomi.com/mt-gox-hack/
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Maybe this will impact BTC or maybe it won't:
"there is also the matter of the Mt. Gox coin distribution event. Approval for the civil rehabilitation plan will come in February 2019. After that, the first round of payments to creditors is planned to process “as soon as possible” though this may actually start sometime between May and June 2019. Mt. Gox still holds about 166,000 BTC and 168,000 BCH, currently valued at $665.5 million."
Mt. Gox wallet monitor:
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Bitcoin price failed to surpass the $3,680 resistance and performed slight decline in the short term, but it is likely to find support near $3,550 recently. Though BTC price recovered a little bit, but it failed to break the resistance zone and no bullish trend signals showed...
https://btcindex.io/news/crypto-trader-guides-you-to-earn-btc-in-bexplus-during-the-bear-market
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Previously, I have argued very often on this sub that Bitcoin is not inflationary, often with people who don't seem to have a very good grasp of economics, but most people don't
The key point of the disagreement is whether or not newly mined bitcoins should be seen as an increase in supply or if the supply remains fixed as coins go from unclaimed to claimed--much like a land grab where the total supply is know to the market.
The idea here is that with the future unclaimed bitcoin's supply known they should be rationally treated as though they already exist by the market and that events like the halvenings should be treated as non-events, because they are known by the market. This argument is eloquently argued by Daniel Krawisz in his article Bitcoin is not inflationary
Although I think Krawisz is one of the few people who has a proper and accurate understanding of monetary economics, my thinking has shifted and I now disagree with him on the topic of Bitcoin's inflation.
Basically, it seems as though markets are so unbelievably ignorant about monetary economics that they cannot see known future events and rationally discount prices of money for those events.
If we look to the historic examples of this, we see some evidence that markets behave blindly when the quantity of money supply is known to be changing in the future until well after those changes have been known and only then do prices start to bend to an economic reality that should have been known long in advance.
In the 1500s when the amount of gold was known to be going to increase due to massive influx of gold from the new world the price of gold stayed high well past the moment when the gold supply had started increasing and was known to be increasing. Basically, people just continued to act as though the supply of gold was as scarce as it was before until the sticky price of gold fell.
Similarly in the early 1980s when Paul Volker effectively greatly restricted the supply increase of US dollars, inflation persisted as though there was no change even though this was known to the market that the supply of future dollars would be greatly lower as a result of this change. That is, markets don't seem to rationally price future currency supply very well at all.
I would argue that bubbles such as the Dutch tulip situation are an example of this as well, as I believe tulips were undergoing monetization in the Dutch economy and failed that test because if the price gets high enough, Tulips become a very soft currency e.g. cheap and easy to create.
This is also reflected in the first two halvenings, with the price not changing very much until a good 6 months or more after the supply change was introduced, even though these events were known years in advance.
Basically my theory is now that markets do not properly forecast future currency supplies and/or rationally discount their prices to the present--if they did, all fiat should be worth near zero. As part of this theory--which I am not sure is correct, I would expect prices of Bitcoin to increase significantly in value in the time period of 6-18 months after the next halvening as if this event occurred without the market knowing of it in advance.
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I'm back with Part 2 of this 3-part series on privacy coins. Part 1 gave us the background for why privacy coins exist and how they work to introduce fungibility to the payment network through various privacy protocols. Part 2 deals with how to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of a privacy coin relative to others and according to your values and preferences. You've probably heard this before: “X is the best privacy coin”, or “Y is the first privacy coin to do Z”, or some variation of that. The altcoin space is highly speculative, and it is impossible to find unbiased information that has been succinctly compiled, even from me. This guide gives you a way to gather information while understanding what exactly that information means when it comes to analyzing a coin. When it comes to evaluating privacy coins, I'm going to be referencing a document called the Privacy Coin Matrix.[41] It is self-described as a “cross-team collaboration to create a comprehensive comparison matrix that can be referenced by everyone”[42]. The Privacy Coin Matrix referenced here is an open source project hosted in Google docs. It takes a minute of orientation, but if you are looking for useful way to compare privacy coins, the spreadsheet provides them in a comprehensive but not too technical fashion. It is the opposite of exhaustive but it is neutral. To repeat, it is the opposite of exhaustive but it is neutral. It already has close to sinless information on Monero, Particl, Dash, PIVX, Zcoin, Verge, Zcash, Zencash, Groestlecoin, Bitcoin Private, Nav-Coin, ZClassic, Bulwark, DeepOnion, Phore, Zoin, ColossusCoinXT, Spectrecoin, and Sumokoin.
The spreadsheet provides a starting point for research, allowing you to find your “single-issue” or “deal breaker”. It does not cover the sequence of development, drama of the projects, or issues of the past. It boasts some broad primary categories that are important when evaluating a coin, some of which I will go over. These categories include a basic description of the coin, its resources and history, coin specifications such as block time and security mechanism, blockchain information such as total size and genesis block date, development, trading statistics (in the works), supply and distribution, economics, privacy features, how well it scales, what wallets exist, a description of its networks and masternodes, and community information. Specific metrics are then listed under each category. With so much information provided, a comparison has to be made based on your own personal rubric, based on the coin’s technical specifications and how they align with attributes and values you consider important. To aid in that process, I will highlight some major trends and discuss the implications of some of the categories, which I will refer to as sections, as they relate to key characteristics of a privacy coin.
PRIVACY
Transaction privacy is the basic promise of a privacy coin and there is a clear distinction of which coins actually provide this. Under the Privacy section of the spreadsheet, you can compare privacy algorithms and see if sender, user and transaction amounts are hidden. You might also recognize from Part 1 the privacy protocols that provide these features. If the popular rankings of privacy coins were truly related to the privacy of the coins themselves, then the market penetration of coins such as Dash and Verge, that objectively have fewer privacy features than others, would be quite concerning. It is also clear that the two cryptocurrency moguls, Ethereum and Bitcoin, are sorely lacking in privacy features when seeing a direct comparison to the features of the privacy coins that came about as a result. Apart from the privacy algorithm used, this section also lists other features such as if privacy is optional and whether the coin supply can be audited. The other sections deal with common features of any cryptocurrency that may indirectly affect privacy, or be important when thinking about the payment network itself, in conjunction with privacy features. These can be important for security or existential threats to a privacy coin, such as how likely it is for double-spending to occur, how centralized the blockchain is, how resistant it will be to quantum computing. But if your main reason for using a privacy coin, is privacy, then the privacy section would be the most fundamental to your decision making.
DE/CENTRALIZATION
As listed under Supply and Distribution, you might find it surprising that about 30% of the listed coins have the top 100 addresses owning over 50% of the total coin supply. As pointed out in a post by Michael Spencer, "Dash and Bitcoin are the only two coins where the top 100 addresses own less than 20% of the total supply".[43] This must be compared to the total amount of addresses however, and decentralization can be defined and measured differently depending on who defines it. You may dislike the history of a coin. For example, zero-knowledge proof coins currently require a trusted set-up, and the initial distribution of a coin sometimes puts the majority of its wealth in a few hand either due to malice or just due to the number of individuals aware and interested. Reward systems can also be viewed as an issue to some but might be seen as a plus to others since it aids development. You might not like Dash’s masternode governance system or that Zcash has a private company that gets a founder’s reward. The distribution of a coins supply might leave you with a general feeling of 'unfairness'. But because many of these coins are first to market, with a few interested collectors at their early stages, the subsequent distribution may be unavoidable and likely to even out to some degree over time. Extreme centralization can result in bad actors being able to exploit the consensus mechanism, through 51% or double-spend attacks. The Network and Masternodes section of the matrix provides some information on this. Centralization is also affected by the consensus algorithm with disagreement over whether proof-of-work or proof-of-stake results in more wealth centralization or more disincentive to be a bad actor. Centralization does not necessarily affect privacy but it might be important to you.
ECONOMICS and SCALING
Both the Economics and Scaling sections cover the usability and long-term growth possibility of a coin. If you are interested in investing in a coin to make profit, you might want to look at the inflation rate, find out whether you can stake it, learn how miners make their rewards, or learn what the funding model is. Low transaction fees and high scalability are important for mass adoption and make it likely for coins to move from the stage of limited awareness, where only crypto-enthusiasts know about them, to the stage of practicality where individuals and businesses use them to address their unique financial needs. Navcoin and PIVX are noteworthy in that they lead the pack in transaction speed. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is slower and highly unscalable with 7.73 transactions per second, compared to Navcoin's 309 transactions per second. One can also remember the climbing of Bitcoin's fees to extraordinary heights in late 2017, where transactions could take hours or even until the next day for them to be fully confirmed. This is something I often bring up because it is important to remember what happened when adoption began to occur. Development is likely to resolve these issues in the long-run but they directly impact whether a coin will only ever be more than a theoretical promise.
SECURITY
When it comes to privacy, security is key. There is no explicit category in the Privacy Coin Matrix that covers this but different variables affect it. Security is not only affected by code implementation alone, but also by a malicious party's ability to control the network through hash power or coin weight, for example. Cryptography and code development can be tricky to implement with new technologies. Some projects run code audits which help, testing the networks ability to withstand various technical attacks. Privacy coins such as Monero, Zcoin, Zcash, Grin, Beam, Peercoin, Particl, and many others, are pioneering in that they are the first to implement certain coin features. They have active research being done or implement cryptographic concepts in a new way. Others coins have cryptographers rebrand existing code, and focus more on marketing than development. You may or may not think it is better to use a coin whose team can respond quickly and efficiently to any issues that arise because they did the background development, research, and implementation themselves. All the categories in the Matrix give some information on the overall security of a project, one specific section being Development. But to expect that bugs are never found and/or exploited may be holding coins to an impossible standard, when the technologies are so new and in ongoing development. They must also be framed against the existing technology that we use. There are a plethora of data breaches that occur with large financial companies that process and share their consumers' financial data.
COMMUNITY
This section is particularly important for coins that use privacy features that combine transaction information from other users to obscure information, such as CoinJoin and Ring-CT. The size of a community affects the volume of information that can be used to provide privacy on the network, even the available transactions for mixing are cumulative. The social community is correlated with, but necessarily the same as, the actual volume of trading or transactions on the network. Something that is not included in the Privacy Coin Matrix that is related to community is marketing. Even though the point of the Privacy Coin Matrix is to cut through that kind of noise, this is an important metric when considering that brand awareness and loyalty can impact privacy features and long-term prospects of a project.
COMPARING COINS
Considering these features altogether allows you to compare in a more greyscale or precise manner how coins compare against each other. Maybe you are looking to transact using a coin with the fastest transaction speeds, the highest privacy levels, privacy on by default, or with the community you like the most. You might like a coin for a very specific purpose, depending on what matters to you. For example, I like that Particl is focused on building a privacy ecosystem on the Bitcoin codebase instead of only a currency, but for instant practical purposes it doesn't have the volume like Monero. I also like that Monero was the pioneer of RINGCT in its original form, that Zcoin implemented the zerocoin protocol, and that Zcash implemented zk-snarks. I am generally a fan of any teams that come up with original technology or implementation, rather than simply copy and paste code then market. This excludes most privacy coins, which I won't name in this section, that simply rebrand existing code from firstcomers. This can come into play when bugs are found, so that coins do not simply wait for code to be rewritten but can respond immediately. But in the end, if something works it works, and new technology tends to build on older technology. As another example of how subjective comparison is, you might prefer proof of work over proof of stake. You could be interested in scaling solutions, or you might prefer a specific kind of privacy protocol. There are many competing factors and my own analysis, which comes in Part 3, will be based on what I consider important. Your own personal rubric will be what matters.
As history tells us, bloody family feuds can arise under the same roof. It's a big world and users have different needs and preferences. It is entirely possible for most of the competing privacy coins today to be successful when general crypto adoption occurs, with proper product differentiation done by savvy teams. Before moving on to my opinions, I would like to highlight the crux of this lengthy collection of information on privacy coins: the truth is that it is up to YOU to decide which privacy coin is the ‘best’. The best privacy coin is dependent on your needs and preferences, your loyalties, your values and your desires. See you in Part 3.
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This needs to be repeated every so often on this subreddit so new people can understand the history of the fork of BCH into BCH and BSV
From Jonald Fyookball's article
Craig S. Wright (CSW) leaving the Bitcoin Cash community is a wonderful thing. This self-described “tyrant” has been expunged, and now we can get back to our mission of bringing peer-to-peer electronic cash to the world.
The markets will rebound when they see the chaos is over, but regardless of the price, we will keep building. Nothing will stop the sound money movement. Calling Out Bad Behavior
As Rick Falkvinge recently explained, there is a difference between small-minded gossiping about personalities and legitimately calling out bad behavior.
CSW’s bad behavior must be called out, because he has done tremendous damage to Bitcoin Cash (and possibly even the entire cryptocurrency sector).
The brief history is that he gained his reputation by claiming to be Bitcoin’s creator (Satoshi Nakamoto). He said he would provide “extraordinary proof” but he has never done so.
Supposedly, he did some “private signings” to a few people, and this allowed him to gain influence in the BCH community. The destruction he has been causing was not widely recognized until after a huge mess had been made.
Thanks to u/Contrarian__ for the following compliation of CSW’s misgivings:
Some background on Craig’s claim of being Satoshi, for the uninitiated:
He faked blog posts He faked PGP keys He faked contracts and emails He faked threats He faked a public key signing He has a well-documented history of fabricating things bitcoin and non-bitcoin related He faked a bitcoin trust to get free money from the Australian government but was caught and fined over a million dollars.
And specifically concerning his claim to be Satoshi:
He has provided no independently verifiable evidence He is not technically competent in the subject matter His writing style is nothing like Satoshi’s He called bitcoin “Bit Coin” in 2011 when Satoshi never used a space He actively bought and traded coins from Mt. Gox in 2013 and 2014 He was paid millions for ‘coming out’ as Satoshi as part of the deal to sell his patents to nTrust — for those who claim he was ‘outed’ or had no motive
Caught Red Handed Plagiarizing
No respectable academic, scientist, or professional needs to stoop so low as to steal and take credit for the work of others — least of all Satoshi. Yet, CSW has already been caught at least 3 times plagiarizing.
His paper on selfish mining has full sections copied almost verbatim from a paper written by Liu & Wang. His “Beyond Godel” paper which purports to claim that Bitcoin script is turing complete, is heavily plagiarized. A paper on block propagation was blatantly and intentionally plagiarized.
Can’t Even Steal Code Correctly
CSW was also caught attempting to plagiarize a “hello world” program (the simplest of all computer programs).
He apparently does not understand base58 or how Bitcoin address checksums work (both of these are common knowledge to experienced Bitcoiners), and has made other embarrasing errors. So How Did Such an Obvious Fraud Gain So Much Power and Influence?
There are no easy answers here. It seems that as humans, we are very susceptible to manipulation and misinformation. The greatest weapon against sinister forces is a well-educated populace. This is something that can only improve over the long run.
The “Satoshi factor” is a powerful one and appeals to the glamorization of a mythical figure. Even people such as myself, who are technically astute, gave CSW all benefit of the doubt until the evidence staring us in the face could no longer be denied.
The seduction of the BCH community was also facilitated by CSW becoming a strong advocate for the on-chain/big-block scaling movement at a time when the community was dying to hear it. This message, delivered with a brazen, in-your-face style, was a sharp contrast to anything seen before.
In addition, CSW was able to find obscure topics (“2pda”), network topology, etc, that seemed to establish him as an expert with esoteric knowledge above and beyond anyone else. Basically, he was using technobabble, but it wasn’t immediately obvious except to very technical people… who were then attacked and discredited.
Eventually, as more and more of the community began to realize his technical claims were bogus, CSW banned those people from his twitter feed and slack channel, leaving only a group of untechnical “believers”, which the larger BCH community referred to as “the church” AKA the Cult-of-Craig.
Finally, if some believed that CSW possesed Satoshis’s stash of 1M BTC, then they may have been gnawing to get a piece of it. But it may turn out that these are the coins that never were. Broken Promises
If this article so far seems like an “attack piece” on CSW, remember it is important to get all the facts out in the open. We’ll get to the silver lining and bright future in a moment… but let’s continue here to “get it all out”.
One of the biggest ways that CSW has damaged the community is to make an endless series of broken promises. This caused others to wait, to waste time on his unproven ideas and solutions, and to postpone or drop their own ideas and initiatives.
He said he was building a mining pool to “stop SegWit” He said he was bringing big companies to use the BCH chain He said that he was providing a fungibility solution based on blind threshold signatures He said he was providing novel technology based on oblivious transfers He said he was providing a method where people could do atomic swaps without using timelocks He said he was going to show everyone how we can do bilinear pairings using secp256k1 He said he was going to release source code for nakasendo He said he was releasing some information that would “kill the lightning network” He said he was going to show everyone how the selfish mining theory is wrong He said he was going to show everyone how we can tokenize everything in the universe squared He said a few times “big things are coming in 2 months”
How CSW Has Damaged the BCH Community
In addition to the broken promises, the BCH community was wounded due to:
The division of the community (with classic divide and conquer tactics) Loss of focus. Huge amounts of drama and distraction from building and adoption Investor confidence has been shaken due to uncertainty and chaos. BCH is a laughing stock to outsiders due to CSW’s antics Gemini deployment of BCH and other rollouts paused Loss of developer talent due to toxic and abrasive personality Various patent and legal threats
The Hash War Event and Split into BitcoinSV
Every 6 months, BCH has a scheduled network upgrade. This is technically a “hard fork” but a non-contentious fork does not result in a split of the chain — it is simply new network rules being activated.
Bitcoin Cash has multiple independent developer groups including Bitcoin ABC, Bitcoin Unlimited, Bitcoin XT, Bitprim, BCHD, bcash, parity, Flowee, and others.
The nChain group, led by CSW, introduced an alternate set of changes a week before the agreed cut-off date, intentionally causing a huge controversey. These changes were incompatible with the changes being discussed between the other groups.
nChain objected to the changes being proposed (cannonical transaction ordering) despite specifically agreeing to it almost a year earlier. The last minute objections were in my opinion, an attempt at sabotage.
An emergency meeting was held in Bangkok to attempt to resolve the differences between the nChain group and the rest of the community. Not only did CSW refuse to listen to the other presentations, he walked out of the meeting after his own speech had been given. The other nChain people refused to discuss the technical issues.
After this, nChain built their own software (“BitcoinSV”) to attempt to compete for the Bitcoin Cash network. But rather than split off to follow their own set of rules, they threatened to attack Bitcoin Cash.
Their attitude was “you follow our rules or we burn it all down”.
The CSW sycophants adopted a strange interpretation of the Bitcoin whitepaper and proselytized the idea that if nChain could “out hash” everyone else, the market should be obliged to follow them.
This faulty thinking was eloquently debunked by u/CatatonicAdenosine. As it turns out, nChain was unable in any case to win at their own game. But Here’s the Obviously Good News…
CSW is gone. It’s over.
He can do whatever he wants on the BitcoinSV chain. He will never be allowed to influence Bitcoin Cash again. And all the negative things and negative people that were a consequence of his involvement in Bitcoin Cash are gone with him.
As a community, we will redouble our efforts and get back to our mission of peer-to-peer electronic cash. We will learn to work together better than ever, and we will learn to detect and punish bad behavior sooner.
The attempted attacks with hashpower also sparked innovation and a focus on the problem of how to stop such attacks in the future. This is only making Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and the entire class of Proof-of-Work coins stronger.
Nothing will stop us.
The reason why millions of dollars were spent to attack and also to defend Bitcoin Cash is because it’s something truly worth fighting over.
It’s sound money.
It’s permissionless.
It’s what Satoshi Nakamoto wrote about in 2008. It’s Bitcoin, a Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System.
Bitcoin
Go to the profile of Jonald Fyookball Jonald Fyookball More from Jonald Fyookball Jimmy Song Tries to Claim Bitcoin Cash is “Fiat Money”… Seriously? Go to the profile of Jonald Fyookball Jonald Fyookball Related reads 600 Microseconds Go to the profile of Awemany Awemany Related reads The scams in Crypto Go to the profile of Craig Wright (Bitcoin SV is the original Bitcoin.) Craig Wright (Bitcoin SV is the original Bitcoin.) Responses
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BTC fluctuated within a narrow range of 3600-3440 for several days, and still showed a weak state of the upside. Looking at the trend of BTC over the past six years, we found that prices basically showed weakness and weakness in January, which is also widely known as Bitcoin "Spring Festival effect." The reason is that China, South Korea and other bitcoin countries have passed the Lunar New Year, and they have been out of BTC, buying Chinese New Year supplies and spending on Chinese New Year. To some extent, BTC will be thrown to trigger a downtrend.
Then, from the data, do we analyze whether the "Spring Festival effect" is really established? Let's take a closer look at the fluctuations in prices around the Spring Festival.
https://i.redd.it/hepdlms6ujc21.png
https://i.redd.it/872k4ou7ujc21.png
https://i.redd.it/ovkrlht8ujc21.png
https://i.redd.it/p5vctv1bujc21.png
By observing and comparing, compared with the three months before and after, the BTC price during the Spring Festival is often relatively stable, and in addition to the overall decline after the 14-year Spring Festival, there are often fluctuations in the other years after the holiday. Even though it entered the bear market last year, it still showed a good trend during the Spring Festival.
On the whole, the BTC price during the Spring Festival is often relatively stable. There will be no plunging in the absence of a major environment, national policies, or special events that cause market changes. The relationship with the Spring Festival effect is not very large. Next we look at the specific market analysis.
1.BTC/USDT
https://i.redd.it/4p0cu1acujc21.png
According to the monitoring, the number of BTC transfers decreased by 6.57% compared with the previous day, and the number of active addresses dropped by 8.49% to 526,800. The ratio of futures to long-term ratio was unchanged at 1.08. BTC's popularity rebounded slightly, but the chain activity was still below the active line. At present, the BTC may run along the 3720 in the shock period, but the breakthrough is unlikely.
From the perspective of capital flow, both the main capital and the retail funds are in a net inflow state, and a large amount of capital inflows may push the price to rebound. From the perspective of futures positions, the current ratio of long positions is still greater than the ratio of open positions. In the futures market, investors hold positions and wait for prices to rebound further.
From the technical analysis, BTC still runs in the 3720-3440 shock zone. Yesterday, the price once again started to rise and test the 3600 pressure level. The current price is blocked and fails to break through. It is expected that the price will oscillate around 3600 and try to break through the 3600 pressure again. If the breakthrough is successful, the price will run to 3720. But if it can't break through for a long time, the price will probably fall back to 3440 again.
Pressure Point： 3600 3720 4070
Support Point： 3440 3380 3150
2.ETH/USDT
https://i.redd.it/yd9rnj8dujc21.png
From the perspective of capital flow, ETH's main funds reversed the net outflow of funds for many days, and there was a small amount of net capital inflows, while retail funds were still in net outflow, capital outflows slowed down, and prices rebounded.
From the perspective of futures positions, the current ratio of open positions and positions of multiple single positions are still basically the same. Under the premise that the price fluctuations are getting smaller and smaller, the futures investors basically hold positions and wait for directions.
From the technical analysis, ETH runs for several days near the lower edge of the turbulent region between 130 and 110. The current price volatility is reduced. On the one hand, it reflects the lack of new inflow funds, and on the other hand, it reflects that there is no funds in the market. Willingness to operate. Therefore, the possibility of large price fluctuations is reduced. Now pay attention to whether the lower edge of the shock zone 110 can support the price. If it falls below 110, the price will move down to the 110-100 range.
Pressure Point：130 150 160
Support Point：110 100
