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Fruitas plans ₱309 million IPO of subsidiary bakery (M:Feb21)

Happy Monday, Barkada --

The PSE lost 20 points to 7419 ▼0.3%

CREIT IPO rescheduled to Tuesday, February 22! More on that below.

Also, don't look now but Bitcoin and Ethereum are dumping. Is another crypto winter on the horizon? Given the run-up in crypto prices and the explosion in tangentially-related crypto "assets" (like NFTs and play-to-earn schemes), there's likely a whole generation of crypto-exposed investors that haven't felt the deep, extended, "holy god when will this end?" sting of a real crypto winter.

Thanks to Jing and Angry Kitty for pointing out that the NoCD thing was a problem for the AREIT IPO as well. I'd forgotten about that!

Shout-outs to Rymnd Rys Grgsn, Alfredo Manugas V11, james victor Villanueva, Just’n, PDF Trader, ash1eyr10t, Jonathan Burac, Joe Latham, Palaboy Trader, meloi, Froilan Ramos, ambondoc, Chip Sillesa, Carl Ambráy, Lance Nazal, mArQo, Rolex Jodieres, Lysender, Evolves Capital, Inc., and Jing for the retweets, and to Mike Ting, Gary Manalo, and Evolves.co for the FB shares.

▌In today's MB:

• Balai Ni Fruitas applies to SEC for ₱309 million March IPO
• Citicore Energy REIT will finally have its IPO this Tuesday

▌Daily meme | Subscribe (it's free) | Today's email

▌Top 3 MB indices:

 POGO Prop. ▲1.16% D30 Targets ▲0.89% #COVID-19 ▲0.52% 

▌Bottom 3 MB indices:

 NEET ▼3.97% Connectivity ▼2.68% Fast Food ▼1.84% 

▌Main stories covered:

• [IPO] Balai Ni Fruitas [BALAI 0.75 pre-SEC] applies to SEC for ₱309 million March IPO... BALAI is a food brand holding company that is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Fruitas [FRUIT 1.23 ▲1.65%], which is also a food brand holding company. BALAI is hoping to raise up to ₱309 million through the sale of 325 million primary and 87 million secondary common shares at ₱0.75/share. The deal is underwritten by FirstMetro Securities, will feature a stabilization fund (no agent selected yet), and if the over-allotment option is fully exercised by FirstMetro, will result in the public owning approximately 27.5% of BALAI on its IPO day. The prospectus says that BALAI will price the offer on March 7, conduct the offer period from March 16 to March 22, and hold its IPO on March 30.

  • The company: BALAI is a holding company that owns Buko Ni Fruitas, Fruitas House of Desserts, and Balai Pandesal.
  • Primary vs secondary shares: The offer is 79% primary shares and 21% secondary shares, but just under half of the secondary shares on sale will actually be used for the over-allotment option / stabilization fund. Primary shares are “new” shares created by the company, BALAI, and the money raised through their sale goes directly to BALAI’s account for use in growing the business. Secondary shares are already-existing shares owned by some other company or person (in this case, FRUIT), and the money raised through their sale goes to that company or person -- not to BALAI.
  • Use of proceeds: BALAI estimates that it will net around ₱220 million from the IPO, and plans to use 81% of that on “store network expansion” to build 120 locations until the end of 2023. It plans to use roughly 9% of the proceeds on establishing its commissary to support the operations of its three brands. The remaining 9% will go toward “potential acquisitions” of other baked goods businesses.
  • IPO tranches: They’re going with the traditional 70/20/10 split; 70% of the IPO will be dedicated to an institutional tranche, 20% will go to the broker tranche, and 10% is reserved for the PSE EASy tranche. PSE EASy investors are capped at ₱100,000 per subscription request.
  • Historical financials: This is where things get interesting. BALAI provided financials from 2017 through 2020, with partial data for 2021 covering just the first nine months of the year. BALAI reports its net income in 2017 as ₱13.9 million, which was down to ₱4.5 million in 2018, up to ₱7 million in 2019, and down to a ₱1 million net loss in 2020. So far as BALAI has reported for the first nine months of 2021, it’s recorded a net income of ₱2.3 million; on pace for its second-worst year in the past five that we have data for. BALAI blames COVID for the downturn in 2020, which makes perfect sense and needs not be interrogated too much considering all of our collective experience in analyzing small-format food brand sales drops due to lockdowns and other movement restrictions. That makes sense for 2020, and for part of 2021, but what accounts for the drop from 2017 to 2018? Perhaps it has something to do with BALAI’s store growth between 2017 and 2018, when it expanded from 77 stores to 83 stores. Perhaps not, though, considering the number of stores appears to bounce around a bit, and without too much rhyme or reason; it had 77 stores in 2017, 77 stores in 2018, up to 83 stores in 2019, but down to 74 stores in 2020, and now sitting with 69 stores (nice), but with a confusing new twist of separating out 6 of those stores as “franchise” stores and 63 as owned stores.
  • The ticker symbol: The prospectus sadly fails to define the company’s ticker symbol, instead giving us only the placeholder “[•]”. I’ve gone ahead and given the company the ticker, “BALAI”, because: (1) it looks different and sounds cool, (2) it’s a “word” ticker like its parent, FRUIT, and (3) it’s way better than the acronym of its corporate name, “BNF”. Sure, the word might be Malay (“balai” apparently means “house”), but it’s still perfectly representative, so I’m going with that (and I hope they do, too).
  • Next steps: This is only the application to the SEC, so BALAI will need to get SEC approval first before it can move ahead and actually submit its application to the PSE to list. Whether or not it can accomplish all of that in time to meet its placeholder dates (pricing on March 1 is just a week away) is pretty unlikely, but weirder things have happened. I’m also wondering if the PSE (the exchange, not the traders) can emotionally handle three IPOs happening within an 8-day span.
  • MB: I’m not sure how I feel about baby BALAI considering that, to me, daddy FRUIT still feels like a work-in-progress. Lester Yu, the owner and CEO of both FRUIT and BALAI, had the misfortune of hitting the market with his food kiosk business just before the greatest medical event of our generation made eating in public seem unthinkable for a huge period of time. I’ve spent plenty of time talking about how I respected Mr. Yu’s pivot away from the kiosk-based nature of FRUIT’s original business plan to adopt an online-friendly platform concept centered around delivery of a diverse “brandscape” of different offerings. I’ve done that so much, in fact, that a few Barkadans have written me personal notes to question whether I’m actually just a shill/hype-man for FRUIT. If I am a shill, I’m the dumbest shill alive, since I’ve done all my shilling without owning a single share of FRUIT or receiving a single peso from the company for any of the nice things that I’ve said about Mr. Yu. All of that aside, everything seems in place for this BALAI offering; it’s got a plan, the plan looks normal, and nothing seems out of the ordinary. It’s not a cash-out. It doesn’t feel outrageous in any way. But maybe that’s part of the problem for me: I don’t feel compelled (from this vantage point) to do anything with all of this information. It doesn’t grab me with grand visions of how BALAI can fit into the future, or coyly reveal a set of financials with escalating profits that imply the company is headed for the moon and I’m a half-second away from missing out. Net profits are frothy and low, with top-line inputs (foot traffic) that are vulnerable to COVID and pandemic-related issues, and bottom-line inputs (cost of raw materials like flour) that are vulnerable to supply chain problems and inflation. It feels like a less-exciting version of FRUIT, which is itself kind of a sinking ship of shareholder value, down some 32% from its pre-Delta variant high of ₱1.82/share, and down 27% from its 2019 IPO price of ₱1.68/share. It’s only up 17% from the very depths of the 2020 COVID crash.

• [UPDATE] Citicore Energy REIT [CREIT 2.55 pre-IPO] will finally have its IPO this Tuesday... After weathering a few days of uncertainty, CREIT and the Megawide [MWIDE 5.45 ▼0.73%] ownership group will finally be able to plan the IPO party with some confidence, as the PSE has approved CREIT’s IPO for this Tuesday, February 22. That’s five days later than the originally-scheduled IPO date. We don’t have any additional information on the cause of the delay, only that there was some issue between the receiving agent, the underwriter, and the Philippine Depository & Trust Corporation. Zooming out, we also don’t know if the parties involved have figured out a way to keep this from happening again to any of the REIT IPOs that are tentatively planned for this year, like the CentralHub, the Jollibee [JFC 247.00 ▼1.98%] and DoubleDragon [DD 10.24 ▲3.33%] industrial REIT, and the Villar Family REIT.

  • MB: I think this is one of those situations where the damage done is hard to see. CREIT will still hold the IPO, the IPO buyers will still get their shares, the PSE will still get its listing fee from CREIT, and the underwriter and all of the other service agents in the deal will still get their fees. But imagine, just for a second, that you’re one of the many investors that was given a partial PSE EASy allocation, told to fetch a physical check from Makati for your refund, and then had to sit and wait while the shares that you paid for remain unlisted for five days beyond the planned IPO date. That’s not a situation that anyone investing in the Philippines should expect to experience simply as a cost of doing business in this market, and yet, here we are. To continue to encourage the wonderful reception that REITs have received from us retail investors, I hope the PSE will soon provide a full accounting of the problems that caused the delay and reveal the immediate steps that it’s taken to fix the problems for next time.

MB is written and distributed every trading day. The newsletter is 100% free and I never upsell you to some "iNnEr cIrClE" of paid-membership perks. Everyone gets the same! Join the barkada by signing up for the newsletter, or follow me on Twitter. You can also read my daily Morning Halo-halo content on Philstar.com in the Stock Commentary section, and in the Saturday edition of the Daily Manila Shimbun.

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We must never forget the Legend of John McAfee, his “suicide” or his ‘Dead Man’s Switch’

With so much crazy shit goin on lately the legend of John McAfee has just kinda been forgotten. Which is a damn shame because this motherfucker actually WAS the DosEquis man: The most interesting man in the world! And his life is one crazy rabbit hole to fall down

There’s Stories for days. His annual whale fucking in Greenland. Paying Mexican women to shit in his mouth. Wagering the eating of his own dick for a crypto bet. His Presidential campaign. Mastering the art of the tweet. Fucking endless

But last bunch of years of dudes life was on the run constantly. Popping up in diff counties and islands every so often. Staying on the boat for months on end. Different jails. Different governments after him. Different governments working with him. Long periods of silence. He was certainly interesting. Made his nut with his virusware when he sold the company. But blew thru it all Even got himself his own certified Netflix documentary lol

Then just hustled in crypto & made a shitload more $ in diff crypto grifts. Some legit. Some scammy. So naturally he also made some enemies along the way. And crypto:fintech also brought him a network that was literally world wide. So there no telling what corner of the world he may have disrupted.

My man had some inside knowledge of a whole lot of delicate & sensitive topics. But he always made sure to say—- “I will never commit suicide. If they ever say I killed myself you all know the truth”. Dude even got it tattooed on himself.

And he also spoke -bout setting a ‘dead mans switch’ in the event of his unexpected demise that would somehow strategically release info once he was officially gone. But was this insurance to stay alive? Or just a way to make sure info doesn’t die with him ? Or both ?

Haven’t heard anything about it since that first week or so after his “suicide” when he was found in his jail awaiting to be extradited back to the US facing multiple years worth of tax evasion. John viewedd the world differently than most people. He didn’t feel he owed the US their cut. And knowing type of guy he was I wouldn’t put it past him to take his own life knowing conspiracy theories would spread and basically trolling his own death.

He was also in the midst of writing an autobiography with another author. Which basically was just JMcAfee drinking and talking shit for hours upon hours while this dude recorded it to later attempt to organize into something coherent. Sadly he died before they finished their sessions. The author said however that he did have plenty of content to be able to create something worthwhile.

As far as I know these sessions have not been released yet. IIRC its called The McAfee Tapes. Maybe it will shed some light on some things. John’s widow Janice McAfee was extremely outspoken & suspicious early on after his death. Questioning everything & everyone. Since then tho she’s walked back some of that. But we still have so many unanswered questions 

Did John McAfee just troll us by taking his own life? (No) Or was he murdered? (Yes) And if so, by who? (US govt) And why? (Maybe he will still tell us)

-Did he in fact set up a dead mans switch? (Hopefully) -Is it set up on the blockchain with timed releases? (This Could explain the delay and still give me hope that it’s real)

-Did he know the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto? (Possibly -Would he reveal it? I doubt it. Mac was a true believer in crypto. Keeping that identity a mystery is actually better for Bitcoin IMO. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.

Keep in mind Satoshi is not some fictitious character. Satoshi is a real person who used this name for anonymity while discussing in the original crypto town square: Bitcointalk.com forum. They designed & wrote code for a brand new truly innovative revolutionary technology that was seemingly perfect. No glitches. No flaws. Every little potential issue was accounted for. And All with no initial beta test version to work out kinks. Just poof. One day it doesn’t exist. The next day it does. Flawlessly.

 Back in 2009 there could only have been a very small handful of programmers who would have even been able to do this at that time. And even as the industry swelled with endless innovative talented developers, & 1000’s of blockchains, coins & tokens have come & gone, with tech advancing at such a fast rate & much quicker than even the infrastructure around it-despite all that the original 2009 Bitcoin network still reigns king. Running on that flawless network that just magically came into existence. 

There’s some other interesting theories that this was just not humanly possible to build this new advanced technology like that and it was actually A.I. that wrote Bitcoin. That’s another rabbit hole for another day. But it’s definitely Intriguing

***TL/DR: John McAfee was found in his jail cell dead of an apparent “suicide”. He was a crazy, rich, controversial personality who vowed publicly more than once that he would never commit suicide and also to set up a ‘dead mans switch’ to trigger & release information once he was officially dead.

-Who killed John & why? -Is there actually a dead mans switch revealing Satoshi’s identity?***

Hoping we get to hear from John soon.

(The Bitcoin/techie/programming specific info mentioned is definitely littered with errors & incorrect terminology. But whatever gfy it’s close enough)

With an eye on current global events, wen CoinJoin?

I'm aware that the team is currently working to implement CoinJoin and CoinControl. Given recent global events bringing more awareness to the privacy implications of Bitcoin, I'm hoping for as much of a status update on these features as possible.

In the meantime, I've been researching more about Samourai wallet and how to ratchet up my Bitcoin privacy usage using those tools, but it would be amazing to have those features integrated with Trezor like, yesterday.

Thanks for a great product!